The Dollar Milkshake Theory is Stronger Than Ever
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- Опубликовано: 4 дек 2024
- Brent Johnson first spoke about his “dollar milkshake” theory on Real Vision in May 2018 • The “Dollar Milkshake”...
Since then, by his estimate, he’s said “milkshake” “a million times.” As he sees it, the U.S. enjoys a comparative advantage - despite all of its problems - and, as a result, its currency will appreciate.
It’s an on-the-money call if ever there was one. In this interview with Ash Bennington, Johnson forecasts more of the same.
He also shares the story of how he came up with his “milkshake” theory (it involves the movie “There Will Be Blood”) and why it stands.
And he warns investors to be prepared for both inflationary and deflationary pressures. Johnson does expect U.S. equities to continue marching higher over the long term - but not without terrifying drawdowns along the way. Recorded on October 11, 2022.
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I heard the dollar milkshake theory years ago when Brent first talked about it amid all these other economists. He was a complete lone wolf in his belief. ...Very incredible to see how correct he's been
Well, Geostrategic analyst Peter Zeihan has always said the same as well and for much longer actually. He just doesn't have a cool nickname for it.
Yes at a Cambridge hosted show, right?
@@Learner5555 he's said it innumerable times for years and years. He outlined the exact same forces. Again, he just didn't have a nifty memeable catch-phrase.
@@WhiteLotusOfLight so basically this guy ripped off Peter’s work
@@thelouisianarealtor I'm not sure I'd go that far. I'd just say that Peter Zeihan has ALSO expressed this sentiment for as long as I can remember listening to him. Essentially that no matter what happens, the US is in total control of its currency and will absolutely defend its global reserve currency status at all costs. Catherine Austin-Fitts has also said similar for ages. This guy took a contrarian position stated by others and simply gave it a fancy name. I am not accusing him of ripping others off, just of basically laying claim to something that a number of people were already saying. It reminds me of the Feingold Diet which is simply, don't eat synthetic garbage and the dude just attached his name to it and got credit as though it was a revelation.
Had a pleasure meeting and talking to Brent. Great man. Huge respect
I don't think he appreciates just how perilous the situation is for democracy in the US, right now.
But that goes for most Americans, IMO. Most people seem to be sleepwalking on the edge of a cliff.
Only a civil war of protests and blocking daily routines, work, school and making the police stand down will fix this issue. And only that, after the world removes the dollar from trade and reserve currency status.
Now mid term was over, do you still hold this opinion?
Brent you deserve a million times more credit for your predictions. Great job 👏
I bet Brent wishes he had a $1 for every time somebody has quoted his 'dollar milkshake theory' ! 😉👍
Nothing really new, we had the plaza accord because there was at the time a strong dollar and there wasn’t milkshake theory...
I'd owe him more than a few bucks haha
Nice clip
That’s a lot of milkshakes
He’s been right from the beginning. It’s wild to see it play out.
Covid wasn’t that big of a deal. It was governments response that made it a massive deal. They could of suggested older people to stay home etc but they didn’t do that. They had to make big corporations bigger and make millions of small businesses go bankrupt. To say you can’t have church or small restaurants stay open but then large congregations in Walmart is fine or casinos it really shows the inconsistencies or hypocrisy of the governments response. It’s why there were funny memes saying church is canceled we’re meeting at Home Depot on Sunday instead haha.
That sounds like a pretty big deal to me and you sound like a bot
Really, in my country you couldn't play tennis, that is being apart from the other player 10-20 meters, but churches were wide open to anybody.
Thank you Brent, UUP has been a champ.
clearly explained in simple language that is easy to understand. This man is a genius.
We're glad you found the explanation helpful!
Humble man Brent really crawled out on a limb as far as anyone I know when he made that prediction about 2 years ago and he was right then and more importantly he nailed it !!!! When no one else did 👏👏👏 and Brent is right this is not going to end well.war, food shortages,currency collapse is here and the debt crisis is just beginning
Is the dollar the dirtiest shirt in the pile, or the highest point on a sinking ship?
In 2008 Swiss franc was pristine compared to dollar. It was just too small. So they had to dirty it. There is no life boat big enough to replace the dollar in a liquid system.
Gold is the cleanest shirt.
Silver is 10x undervalued vs gold
Lets quit with this "Milkshake Theory" it's not a theory, it's a concept.
The dollar won’t be the best option in just a couple of years. Back in 2008 was the real collapse but since there was no other option in sight everyone just turned a blind eye as the USA and the federal reserve forced countries to keep obtaining debt in treasuries and bonds knowing they will never get paid back.
But alas the day of reckoning is right in front of us.
I missed the top by about 3 days in the march 2020 drop. I literally got a phone call on Nov 5th 2021 from an old work mate asking me if he should be concerned that his 401k had made 69% that year. I told him to ring the register on half. I haven't talked to him since. Hope he did. You can't always call the top or bottom, but if you pay attention, you can get within 10%. If you do that for the majority of the big swings every 8-12 years (on average), you will be rich.
I still find all the contradictory indicators confusing. What specifically do you look at? Stocks had been overvalued for years and years.
@@yiyoguerra Yes, they have. It's been a massive bull run for equities. The catalyst occurs about every 8-12 years depending on how you look at the data over the course of the last 50-60 years. I would give an overly simplistic description, but if I tell you they printed 40% of the currency in a few years, then necessarily, assets should account for this and rise to meet the devalued dollar. This would account for the loss in purchasing power. I like gold here and cash in the short run. I sold my rental house a few months back. Seeing some of the stocks at current levels peaks my interest, but I will definitely wait til the midterms/q3 closeouts to see how that affects things. I see a lot of volatility in the charts currently relative to previous time periods. I also think we will see massive upside run in equities or another 20% down from here. Not sure yet. I think we will see deflationary forces for offshore goods due to the dollar rising. Until it doesn't. Then it's look out below for the economy. We don't make anything in the US anymore and in the midst of a recession or worse, this will wreak havoc on personal spending. I think it's highly probable that we see gold do a 2-3x over the next 7 years. But I still watch and keep a relatively balanced portfolio with a high weighting towards gold 30+%. ZERO bonds in play for me.
It’s always easy looking backwards. Do me a favor, give me a top / local top prediction for the future. That’s the way it needs to be done to make money and “ be rich “. Brent made a prediction looking forward. The best investors have all admitted they can’t pick tops with consistent accuracy. But what do they know.
I can't believe how many people can't see it..
What about the end of the petro-dollar? The signs are there that it's coming sooner than we think.
Saudi Arabia bought lots of USA military equipment. That equioment needs constant maintenance to remain functiinal. If SA stops selling oil in USD, spare parts stop getting shipped.
@@zedzed5276 I thought they made deal recently to start buying Russian equipment
@@carlpoppa1788 they did, and that is how proxy wars start.
Surely in a global market you need a benchmark currency and that is the US dollar. Therefore everything else then becomes relative to that.When another country experiences economic growth its currency will rise against the benchmark currency and likewise when its economy declines so too will its currency fall against the dollar. It is not so much the dollar getting stronger it is other currencies getting weaker.
@@ronarnett4811 Globalization started 500 years ago.The global market will outlive religion. Talk of de-globilization is pure bunk. Capitalism is based on globalization. Trust me your shirt will be made wherever it is cheap to make.
Will you be talking about the coming attempt to implement CBDC’s in place of dollars?
Thank you guys for talking about these very real, very important high value topics.
Brent Santiago is the best!
The dollar is overvalued without any physical commodities holding it up. Excellent insights from Brent and a fantastic chat as always!
That's not true, there are physical commodities holding up the value of the dollar.
10 Nimitz class carriers and 1 Gerald Ford carrier.
The Us debt is more than 31 trillion? Who had 31 trillion to lend? LOL
Maybe Artificial intelligence, robotics and automated factories can be set up to mass produce 31 trillion dollars worth of TP? Oh wait the Fed already did that… maybe they can regear to make actual TP so the whole world is repaid!
Great as always; and what about the bet with Peter Schiff 😉?
If the USD drops back to 1.00 against foreign currency, will that make domestic inflation/ food prices go up proportionally?
Yesssss
If the only choice is to finance the MIC war machine with your savings, then it's better to consume them in your own country. Regardless of the pain, an alternative trading system among countries should be worked on
What will happen to house prices in the milkshake theory?
What's the map on the wall behind Brent?
Brent talks about it on another video I once saw. It's Spain and France, possibly an ancient version.
7:50 glad to hear insider trading is alive and well
where are all those dollars flowing into the US? Not bonds obviously. Not stocks . Not Commodities. All cash?
Land.. a lot of it is purchased by foreigners and foreign businesses
Covid = First of the last kicks of the can down the road
The milkshake is having its day in the sun, but it will turn sour just like all other fiat currencies. The process has already started.
Dollar is the last fiat one would want to hold today.
it's 20 to 25% overvalued.
What currency would you rather have? It’s up against almost all currencies.
@@tonyfrattaroli7371 gold silver btc
@@spaghettimonster1498 It's up against gold silver and btc in the last 12 months as well.
@@gustavotriqui thats right. it topped out
Where can i get that painting
in a flooding sewer, the rats will scurry to the highest chamber, even if it will flood eventually as well.
Excellent report
im not an economist but what if the fed printed more money while they were raising interest rates? would that not export the debt to the rest of the world while making the us dollar even stronger?
That's like trying to suck and blow the straw at the same time.
You are right, Brent. Your thesis is still correct. And the whole glue ball will last for another 500 yearcycle.
Insider information regarding Covid?
Decent analysis
First time I hear reality
Yes...dont invest...wait for clarity...in the meantime stocks have gone up from the bottom: Appl 21%, UNH 23% and Nvda 28% , but keep waiting...invest only when its back to all time highs.
Rock, paper, scissors, Nuke. New game being played here when military response trumps monetary system. LNG explosion next?
Gosh, Brant is correct. It is not rocket science. The world needs dollars. I worked in many foreign countries and the economies and businesses revolve around the US dollar. End of story.
im sure the Portuguese said this before the Spanish.... the Spanish before the dutch.... the dutch before the Brits.. and then the founding fathers made a currency backed off of something and said we are sick of your shit England...... us will exchange hands with the GDP power play in a BRICS body that has had enough with US. especially if Saudi joins :)
ask john wick
If you are in trading, highs and lows are the same. They mean business.
Dollar milkshake just means international capital flows.
“…the horrific pandemic…” If I hadn’t watched the news or had seen people wearing face diapers, I wouldn’t have know there was a “pandemic.” 🙄 Pumping such DS agitprop and psyop in addition to pumping Kriptowz is the main reason I don’t pay for a subscription to Real Vision or Zero Hedge. 😉
In the case of real vision what do you expect? Raoul Pal quarantined by choice on his estate in the Caymans for at least a year, if not 18 months. He bought into all of the COVID BS so of course he pushes it on his “network.”
@@overbuiltlimited indeed, plus the usual PR for CBDC TrialBalloonCoinz aka kriptowz. Nothing ‘revolutionary’ about kriptowz if they are pumped 24/7 on CNBC…
What's this an advert for the USA? What a load of bs
Love the dirty shirt metaphor lol
Dollar Top In
But if you adjust the dollar value to inflation what is the real value???
CHEAP millionaire vloggers not using sound dampeners...
Why not to wear a clean shirt that is decentralized asset like ETH or BTC or DOT or Matic or XRP?
Or why not wear a clean golden shirt to shine with?
Dollar milkshake will spray in the drain when BRICS digital currency is released.
I crisp shirt is BTC .
Covid wasn't a big deal.... the government's deranged response made it so.
I would love to hear a debate about whether deflation or inflation is the greater threat for the next 10 years.
Definitely our purchasing power rising would be a horrible crisis.
COVID was a Pre event, but the FED could have done the same 3 years ago.
Covid or alien invasion, that were 2 options back then. i was at their meeting
Dollar milkshake is not actually working against Russian ruble, Brazilian Real and oil. In fact, people have been avoiding US bonds, which has fallen this year.
and soon gold and silver
I bought treasuries a few months ago as a hedge against my CAD depreciating against the dollar while making a decent yeild.
It's paid off well.
If your living in Japan it would have paid off even better.
Brent is the real GOAT 🐐 !
If dollar is appreaciating how much FEWER dollars you need to spend on food and energy? oh? its more dollars? if you spend more dollars on living how is dollar getting stronger?
The crisp clean shirt is Bitcoin.
They're gonna burn it down and buy up the ashes!
DXY to 166.6 Guarenteed...Take it to the Khsarian Mafia Central Bank
The jury is still out. The theory was wrong when the FED brought rates to zero but has been right since they started raising rates while most other jurisdictions haven't or lagged behind the US. If US rates normalize with the rest of the world, or drop lower, then the dollar will weaken. There is also deglobalization and things like BRICS which may also put pressure on the dollar. In the current climate I see limited upside to the dollar still...can it hit 120? Maybe. But the higher it goes it means the global economic situation has gotten worse and makes a FED pivot, or some other form of intervention, more likely.
Thanks for watching!
Wen blood
Gates' GAVI coordinated the response.
I have a dirty UK shirt lol
This Theory won t for to long everybody will start dumping Us treasury bonds nobody will buy them Bond Market will crash $$$$ is not rising but other currencies re falling
Can we drink the milkshake?
golden Schmolden!
I was thinking of starting a scam thread pretending to have made loads of money with an imaginary broker. Can anyone help?
oh wow I can't believe you asked this. I recently became a millionaire by following the advice of scam broker OctaFx.
The ultimate “Lolbetarianism becomes a trade”. Do these people have any original thoughts; “kick the can down the road”, “never be able to repay”, all the same horseshit.
Hey who stole Brent's bathrobe?
Mouthpiece
The global economy is restructuring.
This time is different. Already.
Covid seems to be a blind spot across the macro spectrum.......
Duuuudeeee... the hair brah !
I think the uk Prime minister has even more a massive task. Brexit mess on top of interest rates inflation
Buy US assets?
Sotheby's Austin have done countless BTC transactions for real estate here since 2017...
Really now?
Makes sense really. Austin has become a tech town. Lots of wealthy tech guys are into crypto.
UN-CORPORATIONS Coup d’etat to the world 😢
The country is lost.. people are zombies
We do not and will not ever live in a perfect or ideal world. So a lot of times you have to decide between the lesser of two evils, in this instance its the US dollar. Lol
That's your mindset. Evil is evil. Rather than kill it, you subside to the lesser. Evil is evil
😂 What American wouldn’t say that the US dollar is a safe bet. No bias there 😂
Thanks for watching!
👍👍💯💯👏👏
Did he say horrific pandemic?
This clown REALLY believes the narrative 😊
Yep, typical real vision bs messaging.
U c it as the least dirty shirt. I see the as the worst.
this guy is delusional; dollar collapse in 5 years
5 month
odd-lookin' fella
SQQQ > UUP
Let’s please remember Brents epic bets on the dollar with Peter Schiff who thought we we’re going to see an immediate collapse two years ago and the death of the dollar was imminent 😂
Peter won the bet! 🤣
@@mintymendicant1929 yes ✅✅ my bad
There are only a few clean shirts in the world and one of them is Bitcoin.
Highly intellectual changes in Quran to encounter the imaginary character Masih-ud-dajjal.
*Despite the financial instability all over the world, I’m so excited I’ve been earning $45,000 from my $10,000 investment every 10days...*
So far, Brent has proven the most accurate. Doesn’t Peter Schiff owe you a gold coin?
Actually 3 ... He doubled down n lost it again...
Like, a fifty dollar coin?
@@paulc.3333 I think an ounce of gold
@@paulc.3333 an ounce of gold, I believe.
What is this guy smoking 🚬?
U rich bro? Didn’t think so, just like all economists lol….u just had to look at interest rates lol why u making this so complicated lol wow