Interest rates are going up NOT because there are expectations of growth and inflation due to growth; but because the level of Risk is rising. Banks do not want to lend into a dysfunctional economy with high rate of unemployment and high rate of layoffs; and in order to reduce the amount of mortgage lending, the banks are raising the interest rate. Also for the same reason (rising Risk), the bond rates are also gping up. This is very bad. Especially when the bond rates are going up while the Fed is reducing the short term interbank interest rate. Risk is Rising sharply. This is not good.
@rifflan Banks have always controlled their lending by adjusting interest rates. Anytime there is High risk in the economy due to job loss and layoffs, commercial real estate lease agreements defaulting; banks will always raise rates in order to reduce their lending. The more prohibitively expensive it is to borrow money, the less people will be borrowing. This way, the banks will not lose business from the super wealthy class that can always afford to borrow even at high interest rates, meanwhile avoiding the high risk from the middle and lower classes who will likely lose their job, or find themselves in between jobs for 8-18 months, due to the economy resetting, and thereby miss multiple payments and go into default on the mortgage. It has always worked this way. It is nothing new. This is why we have the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering short-term interbank interest rates; and at the same time, mortgage rates are high and continue to rise.
Initially, REITs investing in healthcare seemed like a solid choice, especially with aging populations. However, experiencing a significant -40% loss equating to around $160k has left me questioning whether to sell or continue holding.
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $500k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
Thanks for sharing. I searched her full name and found her website instantly. After reviewing her credentials and conducting due diligence, I reached out to her.
@@1Skeptik1 Yep, that's my view. They are just following the flow of the river and whoever is directing it. There were penalties to pay if you tried to go against the last far left woke administration. Now we need to bend the knee of the EU.
@1Skeptik1 They're backtracking the woke ideology and for good reasons.Are they my enemy?I would have spent money at our local Tractor Supply but they went woke and therefore my money went elsewhere.
It's quite simple why rates are climbing with rising imports and falling exports, the FED is obviously to be blamed for banking crisis. Something will eventually break if they keep the quantitative tightening and higher interest rates. Is this really a good time to have some savings in stocks?
first austerity, then brexit, now widespread bank failures. always do your own research & speak to a license advisor before thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets .
in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
As long as other major economies are in decline the dollar will appear to be relatively strong. It's like parachuters all jumping out at the same time, assessing their position as they all fall together. "Hey, we're looking good!" "Yeah, so far, so good!"
The 10 bond year yield will most likely move up to 5% (the plimsoll line) and go no higher. Recession will take hold in the US (when?) and around the world and thus the 10 year yield will resume a downward trajectory from this point onward.
The market expects inflation to rise once qe starts, therfore 10 year yields rise.... AI Response : You're absolutely right. When QE is announced, the market might anticipate higher inflation in the future. Here’s why: Inflation Expectations: QE increases the money supply, which can lead to higher inflation expectations. Investors demand higher yields to compensate for anticipated inflation. Risk Premium: To account for the potential devaluation of returns due to inflation, long-term bond yields may rise. So, while QE initially drives yields down through increased demand, inflation expectations can push them back up. It's a fascinating balancing act!
Fully aware this is probably a much more efficient format for you but man, I miss the 3 to 4 shorter videos per day. Was nice to have bits of content to listen to while working throughout the day. It also felt more real time as you were able to do more reaction type videos. Anyone else out there on team “old format?”
Another indication of bond market anxiety can be seen in a metric called the term premium, which is the additional yield that investors demand to hold long-dated debt instead of rolling over shorter-term securities as they mature. It recently hit the highest level since 2015. Bloomberg / swissinfo
If you consider gold real money, then the US dept was much higher around year 2000. In fact the dept today could go to more then 50 trillion before reaches year 2000 levels. So USA has infact managed inflate itself out of dept.
Latin America keeps looking better for holding USD. America is depressed, obese, and broke. Might be time to "go where you're treated best" as our friend Andrew Henderson says!
There is no soft landing for housing. If the recession doesn't happen, then mortgages will be 8% and housing will have to correct downward, likely causing a recession.
Higher rates will stretch the economy too thin. Mortgages will be affected by higher monthly payment costs. Credit card companies will become more restrictive if they can't raise rates. Auto sales will be hurt. All credit costs will rise. The ONLY solution is to get government spending BELOW government income. Just as a good parent will do to manage his/her their household.
The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.
Navigating market volatility can be challenging, it might be beneficial consulting with an advisor to provide personalized insights based on your specific situation and financial position
The issue is most people have the “I will do it myself mentality” but not skilled enough. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 330% since covid-outbreak to date, summing up nearly $1m.
“Expert Attitude:” my wife loves me until I figure out she doesn’t, and by then she has already taken half their stuff and left the Fed watchers in a van by the river.
When "they" (if they were right more often they would use their names) talk about the inverse relationship between the dollar and gold they don't mean something like DXY they mean the purchasing power of the dollar vs. gold - how much gold can you buy for the dollar. The purchasing power of the dollar has plummeted while we see the inverse is true for gold.
George look at the price of gold in dollars, gold has gone up. All currencys have been decimated in the past 4 years, the dollar has been decimated a bit less, that doesn't mean it's going up.
oil may be up because of looming trade war with US/CANADA. Resources could get a lot more expensive... which also drives inflation pressuring bond yields to rise.
I don't think this is 180 at all. It reminds me of 2020 tactics, remember mixed messaging? One figure says X, then the next figure comes out and completely contradicts the first one... ---> "Learned Helplessness"
Obviously rates would have been much higher during those QE periods had it not been for QE. How is this lost on George ? He also misses the blatant fact that the entire chart is a downtrend.
And no one will go to buy treasury (all being paid or sell for debts) maybe except ignorant or just not learned the banks..and the FED will print it again even though its still 4 - 6 interest rate..
Why are you wearing a CBDC shirt? I know it is mimicking ACDC t-shirts, but it makes you look like you support a CBDC, as someone who likes ACDC would wear their T-shirt. If anything it should hava a big red circle around it with a line through it.
Having all your battle groups hiding from the houthis with port calls except for the one looking for its jet! Might weight a touch on that trillion dollar defense budget bravado?
Come on George. The fed dropped interest. THAN inflation was so sure to come down, then fed jawboning was interest rates could stay up. If the fed wanted interest rates down they could, and markets would respond. The problem is inflation and therefore the feds response and then markets react. As for history. History has reacted the way it has because FIRST, some sort of financial or inflation or economy downturn problem and the fed has to step in. That’s there job George. Markets act SECOND
@rebelcapitalistchannel Just looking at that yield curve chart is downright scary. If the Fed is constrained on MonPol, and the yield curve normalizes, we are looking at the potential for a 10 year over 8%.
Rob Kirby, derivative expert recorded on 1/11/16, contended that: "The Fed and Treasury manipulate interest rates by using OTC derivative interest rate swaps and are used extensively to manipulate and force medium term interest rates down. Imbedded in every interest rate swap is a bond trade, because these interest rate swaps trade as a spread relative to government treasuries. And with the Treasury being the receiver of fixed rates in the 3 to 10 year term, they can make the "spread playing banks" captive buyers of literally any amount of 3 to 10 year government debt of which they choose to issue. Historical quarterly derivatives reports, which are produced by "Office of The Controller of The Currency" where the aggregates of the banks swap books are recorded in arrears every 3 months"
We can't ask Rob to respond, because he died a few years back...but there's a reason derivatives were termed "Financial instruments of mass destruction..." Warren Buffett
OK today I made it 3 mins. maybe you think that way but most think or understand the fed controls the short end and the long end is market determined,......maybe you only hear what you want to hear,......because you are sooooo much smarter then everyone else. Yeah,......thats it GG is the real expert!
Interest rates are going up NOT because there are expectations of growth and inflation due to growth; but because the level of Risk is rising. Banks do not want to lend into a dysfunctional economy with high rate of unemployment and high rate of layoffs; and in order to reduce the amount of mortgage lending, the banks are raising the interest rate. Also for the same reason (rising Risk), the bond rates are also gping up. This is very bad. Especially when the bond rates are going up while the Fed is reducing the short term interbank interest rate. Risk is Rising sharply. This is not good.
You have some sort of source for saying the banks are rising the rates up for this reason?
@rifflan Banks have always controlled their lending by adjusting interest rates. Anytime there is High risk in the economy due to job loss and layoffs, commercial real estate lease agreements defaulting; banks will always raise rates in order to reduce their lending. The more prohibitively expensive it is to borrow money, the less people will be borrowing. This way, the banks will not lose business from the super wealthy class that can always afford to borrow even at high interest rates, meanwhile avoiding the high risk from the middle and lower classes who will likely lose their job, or find themselves in between jobs for 8-18 months, due to the economy resetting, and thereby miss multiple payments and go into default on the mortgage. It has always worked this way. It is nothing new. This is why we have the U.S. Federal Reserve lowering short-term interbank interest rates; and at the same time, mortgage rates are high and continue to rise.
Initially, REITs investing in healthcare seemed like a solid choice, especially with aging populations. However, experiencing a significant -40% loss equating to around $160k has left me questioning whether to sell or continue holding.
Before making any investing decisions, it is advisable that you consult with a qualified financial counsellor.
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $500k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio
Can't divulge much, ‘’Amy Lea Kohlert’’ preferably, {you can look up the name on the web, her qualifications speak for itself.
Thanks for sharing. I searched her full name and found her website instantly. After reviewing her credentials and conducting due diligence, I reached out to her.
You are correct,big business doesn't care about anything but themselves and the bottom dollar.
Is big business your enemy?
@@1Skeptik1 Yep, that's my view. They are just following the flow of the river and whoever is directing it. There were penalties to pay if you tried to go against the last far left woke administration. Now we need to bend the knee of the EU.
@1Skeptik1 They're backtracking the woke ideology and for good reasons.Are they my enemy?I would have spent money at our local Tractor Supply but they went woke and therefore my money went elsewhere.
It's quite simple why rates are climbing with rising imports and falling exports, the FED is obviously to be blamed for banking crisis. Something will eventually break if they keep the quantitative tightening and higher interest rates. Is this really a good time to have some savings in stocks?
first austerity, then brexit, now widespread bank failures. always do your own research & speak to a license advisor before thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets .
in my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
my partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Carol Vivian Constable” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
I'm glad that at least that one guy at the FED, Fred, is doing a consistently good job in giving us statistics.
If only it was a person
He lives in StLouis
As long as other major economies are in decline the dollar will appear to be relatively strong. It's like parachuters all jumping out at the same time, assessing their position as they all fall together. "Hey, we're looking good!" "Yeah, so far, so good!"
The 10 bond year yield will most likely move up to 5% (the plimsoll line) and go no higher. Recession will take hold in the US (when?) and around the world and thus the 10 year yield will resume a downward trajectory from this point onward.
When the United States 10 Year Debt Note hits 15% , then we'll talk. ❤❤❤❤
I might get on Facebook now that the crazy liberals will be leaving. Nah, still sucks.
The market expects inflation to rise once qe starts, therfore 10 year yields rise....
AI Response :
You're absolutely right. When QE is announced, the market might anticipate higher inflation in the future. Here’s why:
Inflation Expectations: QE increases the money supply, which can lead to higher inflation expectations. Investors demand higher yields to compensate for anticipated inflation.
Risk Premium: To account for the potential devaluation of returns due to inflation, long-term bond yields may rise.
So, while QE initially drives yields down through increased demand, inflation expectations can push them back up. It's a fascinating balancing act!
Fully aware this is probably a much more efficient format for you but man, I miss the 3 to 4 shorter videos per day. Was nice to have bits of content to listen to while working throughout the day. It also felt more real time as you were able to do more reaction type videos.
Anyone else out there on team “old format?”
Another indication of bond market anxiety can be seen in a metric called the term premium, which is the additional yield that investors demand to hold long-dated debt instead of rolling over shorter-term securities as they mature. It recently hit the highest level since 2015. Bloomberg / swissinfo
If you consider gold real money, then the US dept was much higher around year 2000. In fact the dept today could go to more then 50 trillion before reaches year 2000 levels. So USA has infact managed inflate itself out of dept.
You’re not taking into account the lag between QE starting and QE actually working its way through the system.
George why is your apprentice in the bathroom?? Let the kid take a shit in peace LOL🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I think the gig is up on the American Fiat Dollar.
Latin America keeps looking better for holding USD. America is depressed, obese, and broke. Might be time to "go where you're treated best" as our friend Andrew Henderson says!
Zion Don said that interest rates are too high and that he's going to raise wages and buy Greenland! He's my hero!
All this talk of cutting government spending but crickets on the $50 billion we send to Israel every year.
Israel has the best lobbyist gifts to US politicians.
10 yr yield: Yellen is working on crashing the economy
There is no soft landing for housing. If the recession doesn't happen, then mortgages will be 8% and housing will have to correct downward, likely causing a recession.
Higher rates will stretch the economy too thin. Mortgages will be affected by higher monthly payment costs. Credit card companies will become more restrictive if they can't raise rates. Auto sales will be hurt. All credit costs will rise. The ONLY solution is to get government spending BELOW government income. Just as a good parent will do to manage his/her their household.
Don’t trust Elon!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
QE obviously lowers rates. Showing what the rates were during QE cycles says nothing about what they would have been if they weren’t doing QE
Bingo. It’s amazing to me that George can’t comprehend this
No offense to George, but he doesn’t know as much as he thinks he knows. He also quotes Milton Friedman. 🤦🏻
The Fed's talk of interest rate cut leaves me pondering what stocks to buy now and when do I sell? I'm unsure how to properly allocate my money to achieve an optimal portfolio in this present economy, my goal is $3m for retirement.
Navigating market volatility can be challenging, it might be beneficial consulting with an advisor to provide personalized insights based on your specific situation and financial position
The issue is most people have the “I will do it myself mentality” but not skilled enough. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 330% since covid-outbreak to date, summing up nearly $1m.
i've been considering getting one, but haven't been proactive about it. Can you recommend your advisor? I could really use some assistance.
Zareen Grace Church is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’ll find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Thank you for the recommendation. I'll send her an email and I hope I'm able to connect with her.
Cheap bonds cool !!! Buying non stop.
Love the tshirt 😂 But in Germany I've seen it a long time ago with the ADAC - that's basically the AAA in the US.
We still have massive spending and borrowing and deficits...fiscal stimulus keeps alot at bay...the budget was balanced in 1992 with a surplus...
“Expert Attitude:” my wife loves me until I figure out she doesn’t, and by then she has already taken half their stuff and left the Fed watchers in a van by the river.
When "they" (if they were right more often they would use their names) talk about the inverse relationship between the dollar and gold they don't mean something like DXY they mean the purchasing power of the dollar vs. gold - how much gold can you buy for the dollar. The purchasing power of the dollar has plummeted while we see the inverse is true for gold.
"Zuckerburger" at 35.12 😂
George look at the price of gold in dollars, gold has gone up. All currencys have been decimated in the past 4 years, the dollar has been decimated a bit less, that doesn't mean it's going up.
Yeah... Meta can go Zuckerberg itself...
Chile has two currencies. CLF and CLP. I would like you to speak to that.
oil may be up because of looming trade war with US/CANADA. Resources could get a lot more expensive... which also drives inflation pressuring bond yields to rise.
Risk is rising 💥
I don't think this is 180 at all. It reminds me of 2020 tactics, remember mixed messaging? One figure says X, then the next figure comes out and completely contradicts the first one... ---> "Learned Helplessness"
Obviously rates would have been much higher during those QE periods had it not been for QE. How is this lost on George ? He also misses the blatant fact that the entire chart is a downtrend.
If the trend of rates has turned for the next couple decades that can’t be bullish for the economy…maybe 70 yrs ago. Not now.
Dollar milkshake theory is happening. Why is no one discussing this?
And no one will go to buy treasury (all being paid or sell for debts) maybe except ignorant or just not learned the banks..and the FED will print it again even though its still 4 - 6 interest rate..
Nobody normal gives a shit about the dxy when they can't buy food.
Can meta go back to funny memes and heartfelt stuff now and stop peddling liberal propaganda
Yeah right around now
This crash is going to be EPIC!!!
Someone explain to me what is George's base case for interest rates and the US economy?
10 yr. 30%
3 month .001%?
GG BASE CASE IS WHAT EVER JEFF SNIDER TELLS HIM IT IS!
Thank you everyone.
We have to have Canadian lumber we have to have Canadian made cars. Silly rabbit. Done following.
Sweet.. Time to raise the rents
Why are you wearing a CBDC shirt? I know it is mimicking ACDC t-shirts, but it makes you look like you support a CBDC, as someone who likes ACDC would wear their T-shirt. If anything it should hava a big red circle around it with a line through it.
6-7% rates are on the horizon
Having all your battle groups hiding from the houthis with port calls except for the one looking for its jet!
Might weight a touch on that trillion dollar defense budget bravado?
It’s the background work to the great melt up.
Come on George. The fed dropped interest. THAN inflation was so sure to come down, then fed jawboning was interest rates could stay up. If the fed wanted interest rates down they could, and markets would respond. The problem is inflation and therefore the feds response and then markets react. As for history. History has reacted the way it has because FIRST, some sort of financial or inflation or economy downturn problem and the fed has to step in. That’s there job George. Markets act SECOND
Why is George’s audio always so bad even though he uses a good mic?
It’s your speakers
Stan Druckenmiller shorted bonds back in Nov. But that’s why he’s a billionaire and you aren’t. Follow Druck not George.
If you question the system, then offer solutions.
There is no solution lol
So what are the best investment opportunities in the next six months?
Operation twist 2.0! When short paper is so unstable people beg for duration?
Mike Maloney the Gold is real money Hedera guy.
Too many words per content. Keep it focused.
@rebelcapitalistchannel Just looking at that yield curve chart is downright scary. If the Fed is constrained on MonPol, and the yield curve normalizes, we are looking at the potential for a 10 year over 8%.
🤫🚨SILENT DEPRESSION🤫🚨
Rob Kirby, derivative expert recorded on 1/11/16, contended that: "The Fed and Treasury manipulate interest rates by using OTC derivative interest rate swaps and are used extensively to manipulate and force medium term interest rates down. Imbedded in every interest rate swap is a bond trade, because these interest rate swaps trade as a spread relative to government treasuries. And with the Treasury being the receiver of fixed rates in the 3 to 10 year term, they can make the "spread playing banks" captive buyers of literally any amount of 3 to 10 year government debt of which they choose to issue. Historical quarterly derivatives reports, which are produced by "Office of The Controller of The Currency" where the aggregates of the banks swap books are recorded in arrears every 3 months"
We can't ask Rob to respond, because he died a few years back...but there's a reason derivatives were termed "Financial instruments of mass destruction..." Warren Buffett
Elliot Wave. Watch what happens next. 5th wave terminal move in action. Next move a collapse in yields
What IF, America, Canada, Greenland, Mexico down to incl. Panama, revalue and printed new Northern American $ asset backed.
Amero it will also include Europe
Cyberpunk 2077 says we will have the official eurodollar
Dollar crash global will crash…
Not true they are not
Do people not see the inverted head and shoulders on the 10 yr?! 2025 Black swan event incoming.
Dana White will make America Great Again!
Only Americans can make America great again
Dan's whie 1:10 my guess
Dana white? Wow
Robby Starbuck!
Trump is out of control
TDS alert 🚨
Trump is your daddy
Dana white UFC
Is fartcoin a buy yet?
Buy and hold! Lol
Crack Up Boom Imminent! Garlinghouse meets with Trump! XRP 📈
OK today I made it 3 mins. maybe you think that way but most think or understand the fed controls the short end and the long end is market determined,......maybe you only hear what you want to hear,......because you are sooooo much smarter then everyone else. Yeah,......thats it GG is the real expert!
Huh?
Bud Light is still the queer beer?
12:04 bingo
😂 … you funny.
George 🇧🇷
You should made 4 or 5 videos… this is too long
Do you like Trump's solutions? Do you like Musk's solutions?
Trump trade
Dollar crash? Hardly.
The Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse
ruclips.net/user/shorts6X_u5FCJwag?si=fkv7pSvN4cNhFl_7