The Rational Investor’s Case Against Bitcoin
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- Опубликовано: 5 июл 2024
- Episode #525
Cryptocurrency enthusiasts can’t fathom why Bitcoin will fail. If you tell them that you’re not investing in Bitcoin or other cryptos, they look at you like an uneducated investor, a sheep following the crowd without thinking for yourself. The promise of Bitcoin is so great that you’d have to be an outright fool to deny it, and anyone who refutes the future golden age of a decentralized society is simply mistaken and is only coping with the oncoming collapse of fiat currency and Western civilization.
The problem with that theory? None of it is grounded in reality. Today, BiggerPockets CEO Scott Trench is going to prove it. After years of research on Bitcoin, the blockchain, and cryptocurrency as a whole, Scott has come to a simple conclusion: Bitcoin isn’t worth it. In fact, Bitcoin may be worth, unsurprisingly, nothing! But before all you Bitcoin maximalists come out of the woodwork, claiming we’re forever bullish on index funds and real estate, hear out Scott’s argument.
Scott will explain the case for Bitcoin and why its end goal is actually quite altruistic. However, five fatal flaws will stop Bitcoin from ever becoming a world reserve currency or replacing fiat money. Besides its fatal flaws, Bitcoin isn’t a foolproof cryptocurrency by any means, and we’ll prove it! Finally, Scott gives his Bitcoin price prediction and his recommendation if you do want to hold some Satoshis.
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00:00 Intro
02:16 The Case FOR Bitcoin
09:51 5 Fatal Flaws of Bitcoin
14:29 Bitcoin is NOT a Perfect Crypto
21:46 The Blockchain’s Big Problems
26:58 Bitcoin Price Prediction
28:48 What if Bitcoin DOES Take Over?
![Sean Rii, Karyon, Sharzkii - Taungule [My Love] (Official Music Video)](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/eJoMuypbSzQ/mqdefault.jpg)
This is not going to age well.
I take screenshots and have a 1tb hard drive... So excited for the day I get to make the montage.
@@OnAGoodDayProduction A threat! Anonymous Crytpo cyberbro has taken screenshot and is biding his time to take... revenge? For an opinion? Thank you for validating why this video needs to be out there in the first place.
@@scotttrench4169 as others have said, your beef is personal with us maxis. Not Bitcoin. Further promoting the credit based ponzi that is so obviously ravishing society. You're too smart to be this ignorant.
The price to zero? Please be serious. Even if every major nation banned it, it would never go below 10k. Demand will always be there for immutable money.
But you know this, you just don't care.
@@scotttrench4169when you have strong opinions that end up wrong you deserve to be held accountable for those opinions. Yeah he’s being edgy and lame but you should expect this stuff. This is an ecosystem with various forms of defense. If you don’t want the anon cyberbro bait, don’t take it.. 😅
It’s already a heaping pile of stale FUD… nothing new here.
2018 is calling; it wants its bitcoin FUD back.
I appreciate the thoughtful opinion on bitcoin, with great points. I’m no “maximalist”, but I do keep 5 percent of my portfolio in bitcoin as a store of value. Especially since the US dollar has lost 25% of its purchasing power in the last 4 years. BTC has been the best performing asset in the last 12 years. I will continue to DCA. Curious how this video will age.
Best to swap for ETH while it's cheap. Unless you think Blackrock is going to fail of course. Sure, BTC was good for profit but now, it's time for mass adoption of crypto and BTC just doesn't serve any real utility like proof of stake aka ETH. Now, if BTC forked like ETH did, that's interesting but they won't.
Just three comments:
1) Way too many half truths and hyperbolic statements.
2) Your argument was really against “Bitcoin maximalists” rather than against Bitcoin. So Bitcoin could still succeed (be broadly accepted and utilized) even if not the way some Bitcoin maxis want (e.g., Bitcoin can succeed without U.S. failing).
3) Speaking about “Bitcoin Maximalists” as if they all agree is unhelpful.
I agree there are arguments against Bitcoin, but I wouldn’t point someone to this video to convince them against Bitcoin.
Agreed. What I heard were concerns, not arguments.
I worry that vague criticism like this detracts from the discussion and continues to alienate people from the bitcoin community. Nonspecific accusations of "half truths" and "hyperbolic statements" is something I find unhelpful, and sadly all too common in the bitcoin community.
Alchemy did not fail, they just never revealed the secrets
@@jbnichug8949😂
Spoken like a true bitcoin maximalist! 😉
You’re not going to absorb the value of bitcoin holders, but the government is going to continue to absorb your value.
right on!
You did a fairly decent job of steelmanning the Bitcoiner position, except for one fatal flaw. We do not need to believe that the US government or any government will collapse for Bitcoin to win. All we need to know is that the fiat monetary supply will ALWAYS need to expand, and as it does, some of that money will find its way into BTC as a store of value.
That's it. If it becomes a currency in a hundred years, great. But it doesn't need to be an actively used medium of exchange to win as digital gold.
Bitcoin, on the base layer, is not a transactional system for small transactions. This is because of the block size, not the mining process or lack of computing resources, as you said in the video. It's the small 1MB blocks that will cause fees to rise on layer 1. Bitcoin will scale in layers like every other financial system. Layer 1 is for settling large transactions.
Very well said
I have been an avid follower of BP for many years, learning quite a bit from the community. However, on this topic I think the analysis is quite flawed (and based mostly on what I hear on MSM). Almost each negative item brought up can be refuted or clarified as to how things really work (ex. bitcoin maximalists do not think the blockchain technology is only good for bitcoin as it can be used for many applications requiring a ledger - which is what a blockchain is). I understand you have done well in real estate (where you have expertise), and I look forward to hearing if you feel the same in 2030. Good luck.
The problem with bitcoin that it usually takes a person more than 100 hours to get it. Every flaw that was stated here, while sounds smart and deadly, already has an answer. If you spend some time trying to debunk the flaws, you'd debunk them. But if you lock yourself in the status quo thinking things would never change, you probably need to go back and research more, respectfully.
Scott, I appreciate your work, but I feel it's been built on a completely wrong thesis that bitcoin can only thrive if US economy or country collapses. The assumption is neither accurate nor necessary. 1) The World is much bigger than the US; 2) They can and should thrive both along with gold (why not?) I'd look on that differently: The US is bringing to the World an unheard freedom - the freedom from the government money!
I believe that there is essentially no world where Bitcoin takes over as ANY world reserve currency due to it's flaws, as discussed in the video. But, as an American it's even worse - as I believe that the dollar is so much relatively stronger than anything else, and we have so many relative advantages to other countries, that the returns from investing in the US economy and real estate will dwarf returns from currency (again, not in holding dollars as currency), even if that bitcoin replaces Guatemalan Quetzal or similar.
Agree this whole vid was about how btc cannot take over the US or something like that.
@scotttrench4169 the dollar is so strong in fact that nations are actively working to get it off their balance sheet. The debt other countries hold amounts to very little because of how much money the US prints
Your argument was a straw man that the US needs to collapse for btc to become successful. BTC becomes successful if 1. The dollar keeps printing and/or 2. People have less and less faith in their government.
Hence why it’s been the number 1 returning asset the last 15 years
@@scotttrench4169 true… the money printer go brrr makes US real estate a great investment.
If foreigners are stuck with dollars, which are rapidly losing purchasing power, they have US assets as refuge.
The problem with that is obvious. Middle to working class Americans, the youth, are taking a serious decline in economic standard of living. This fiat money system is increasing the wealth gap. The rich get richer; the poor get inflation.
@@scotttrench4169 but thats not at all what we're saying, we're saying bitcoin has a substantial value proposition WITHOUT replacing centralized currencies and you barely refuted that at all
The moment he said he understood Bitcoin, I was sure he hasn't understood just the Basics...😂
"never seen a civilization that has endured with a deflationary currency" Has a deflationary currency ever existed? Governments thrive on the ability to print money and take on debt so they don't seem incentivized to produce a deflationary currency. Perhaps a deflationary currency is seen in real estate investing. You said a deflationary currency would create huge problems (due to hoarding I presume?). Real estate is held and exchanged for value and is being hoarded to the detriment of those who cannot get a foothold. What if the barriers to entry were lifted for them by being able to easily hold and transact small pieces of real estate in a more seamless process than the current one? I'd argue we haven't fully seen a deflationary currency properly play out and we can't know for sure if it would "create huge problems" as you say. ;) Thanks for talking about this stuff!
Great counter! You are right, it is theoretically possible to build a civilization on deflationary currency. But, to me, not something I want to bet on or think is likely. The world moving in lockstep to a new order with one deflationary currency is too big of a bet for me to make. And again, if I'm wrong, I then own the real estate you mention.
Let's revisit this in 10 years, and see how it worked out...
“ force governments to purchase back the bitcoin from people “
How will the government FORCE citizens/people to sell ?
Came here for the same comment. I feel like Scott says he has “done the research” but he only scratches the top surface of is claimed “flaws”.
I think when Scott discovers that the government “can’t “ do that then he will see why there is value.
First, some governments DO force their citizens to stop using bitcoin - see China, which is not totally, but is still largely, successful in enforcing. But, I didn't bring that up in the video. I don't think governments will force people to not use bitcoin. I just think that in the unlikely event it continues to accrete in value and gain more widespread adoption, they may just purchase it or collect it, if they do in fact accept it as a form of payment for taxes.
After enough accumulation, they can issue a currency backed by Bitcoin, just like they did with Gold, and then... we get to 1971 again. That pattern is not something that can be easily stopped.
@@scotttrench4169 wrong! China banned BTC several times, which must tell you that they unbanned it many times as well. They are not able to stop anything and that is why so many Chinese people keep investing in BTC and using facebook and everything else they "banned "over there. Even in the States they never cease BTC like they say, they just make deals with criminals and basically they "sell" them a better deal to leave jail earlier, basically they blackmail people into giving away their BTC.
@@scotttrench4169The difference here is that it is way easier to audit a btc wallet than a gold vault. A gov cannot start to issue more currency than they have sats bc everyone will be able to see how much they have. We were not able to do that with gold, and when countries got suspicious, that’s when we severed the link
Listening made me even MORE optimistic on BTC long term. This dude knows enough to be dangerous but is at best half informed. He uses British pound since 700 as an example in his favor. He overlooks the fact that British pound was global reserve currency for only 100 years of that period, eventually British pound was no longer global reserve currency and of course Britain still exists. Same logic - he should really spend 15 minutes listening to Dalio podcast - the US dollar will lose its status and be replaced as global reserve currency. USA will still exist. It has happened multiple times in history, and has nothing to do with total destruction of the country that had reserve currency. By Greshams Law - BTC is unlikely to ever be a widely successful currency. But it will become global reserve asset replacing US Treasury Bills . It would only take 15 minutes with Dalio and this dude could fill in some huge missing gaps in his understanding of financial history. Dude could learn that Portugal, Netherlands, Spain, and France, in addition to Britain and USA have had global reserve currency in the past. No one keeps global reserve currency for more than approx 100 years. And yet all the countries still exist. Do more homework Scott. And BTC is an asset, not a currency. The distinction matters.
He would “bet” on a different fiat currency if our fiat currency failed. 🤣
Funny. But it’s probably true.
Trad Fi guys like him love the money printer because they’ve put themselves into the asset classes that benefit the most by the Cantillon Effect, namely stocks and real estate. He mentions how much he likes to invest in real estate. In the hypothetical bitcoin economy, housing would be affordable for people to live in instead of being a great income generator for people like himself.
So of course. He hates bitcoin for what it stands for and would seek restart the Cantillon Effect economy, on some other fiat currency, if the US fiat collapsed.
He should short it.
@@cl5619precisely
What about the idea of it just staying as a digital gold and not a currency?
Exactly. Gold is an asset with no counter party risk. Same for bitcoin. USD is a fiat currency. Bitcoin will likely never be a currency, no one will want to use BTC as a currency when they can use fiat for everyday needs.
You forgot one key element in your brief account:
a so called 'deflationary' currency by you enables people to work less for income, free up TIME and ENERGY for a person to create, learn, live, think and thereby add value to the world. Thereby inflating human intellect rather than inflating the value of printed paper.
Have you weigh that human energy spent on passionate pursuits vs the energy tht the BTC network spends?
Also, the inflationary tons and tons of paper printing drives people to borrow more - the very damaging DEBT crises. Have you addressed this? People who lost their homes? Student debts?
Unless and until someone proposed a sound alternative, am going with the limited BTC rather than printed papers.
I really appreciate this thoughtful approach to the conversation about Bitcoin, Scott. Your perspective could be right, but it could also be wrong. It's a great discussion to have. I personally think allocating 5% of your networth is more than enough for investment purposes. There are so many unknowns that are being assumed about digital currency and its mass adoption. I just don't agree with going all in on this investment vehicle.
This is the best counter argument video I have found. You have done research which is great to hear. While I disagree with your points, at least the debate is getting more nuanced and technical. That is how we reach the best outcome whether that is Bitcoin or not.
As a bigger pockets listener, and not a bitcoin maximalist, I am still trying to find people like you, that have points against Bitcoin after having done some research.
I must say that I was a bit disappointed, as most of your arguments are either very simple/naïve (e.g. were answered profusely by multiple people), or just very weak.
I'm not saying against it, they are valid concerns, but it tells me that you didn't do as much research as you claimed you did.
I'm sorry for sounding like the people you warned about in the beginning of the video, but I unfortunately agree with them.
Instead of saying "oh reaaaaallly, you did your research huh?" With a smirk, I'll just say (after watching uour arguments) that you're not there yet, and if you want to stay there, I'm fine with it, but just know that, for example, saying that "we can't be fully trustless, so why bother" is kind of like saying "we will always have crimes, so why bother having an imperfect form of police".
Anyway, I won't go into more details because this comment probably will never be read.
Read it and heard. I distilled my research into a 40 minute video and 5,000 word essay.
If I wrote a 100,000 word book, would that qualify as enough research? What level is "enough" research to satisfy a bitcoin expert?
I think the answer is "do more homework until you agree" for many bitcoin people.
What are a few resources where I can learn about the case for Bitcoin? Is there one book that is really good, or a few RUclips videos?
I am interested in learning, but I'm not trying to get a master's degree in Bitcoin.
I'm not saying that you're wrong, and I'm not saying that you should agree with maximalists.
I'm saying that most of your arguments/concerns stopped there, at concerns.
I would love to have new arguments against Bitcoin.
But saying that the speed is too slow, and that we would need more power to increase it, well that's just wrong.
The compute power doesn't change the speed of transactions, that's just not how it works.
And there are solutions to that, like a layer 2 like lightning.
So I'm just saying that your arguments stop where there are answers already.
Maybe you think layer 2s can't work, then that's a great argument if you can say why. But it seems like you're suggesting that there will be something invented later, while it might just be a layer 2 on top of Bitcoin (I'm not sure, just extrapolating here).
The internet has 7 layers, maybe the layer 3 of Bitcoin is what we need (or not, but again, it wasn't even mentioned in this video).
Again, there's nothing wrong with what you said, it's just a bit... Shallow IMO, and didn't help me get more weapons against Bitcoin (I'm more of a devil's advocate). And like another comment said, Bitcoin maximalist is not the only option either! As you said so yourself, the British pound worked very well without being everywhere.
@@scotttrench4169 You know, this video is the most in-depth video that I've seen against bitcoin, so kudos on that.
I am sorry for not answering more in-depth, I might have felt some frustration in your answer. I'm not a bitcoin expert, but I'm tempted to take all the issues and reply with everything that I know (which is not much), and ask for anyone to continue arguing on all the points.
In any case, there are some points against bitcoin, and I don't think there's a high chance that the maximalists' view will ever come true, but I also don't think it goes to zero.
I like the 1-5% allocation on a deflationary asset case, and I guess I'm skewed towards trying to find a reason to have a 0% allocation, which needs bigger arguments than if you're trying to find a reason why it goes to zero, which is completely different than if the asset will just survive?
Sorry for these weird sentences, I guess Friday makes my English mushy (if we can even say that English can be mushy)
Yes. I came into this video expecting something new, something I never thought about, something to make me doubt bitcoin’s longevity.
Instead all I heard were the same old weak arguments that have been around for a decade.
In a contrary way, this presentation makes me more confident about bitcoin, not less.
Um,, can you introduce me to who said blockchain was made for bitcoin?
You can do your homework and somehow still get it wrong
Why can't you envision a future where we still use dollars, euros etc but bitcoin becomes a widely adopted store of value/hedge against inflation plus the speculation element which will never go away? It doesn't have to become currency, just digital gold widely adopted, even at state level.
Exactly.
Would love to hear a discussion between yourself and James from invest answers.
James would never waste his time with this punk.
you can be Peter Shiff Assistant!!
nah even peter doesn't think things will be rosy with the US gov in the future.
When will bitcoin go to zero? You said long-term, 5yrs, 10yrs, 50yrs, or will you live to see it? How about a bet with one of the maxis on this BTC to zero? This kind of a bet is more exciting than a sport bet.
I am a crypto professional (layer 1 blockchain/crypto programmer) as well as a bitcoin maxi. Holder not trader.
While I disagree with a few points, this is probably the best informed criticism that I have seen yet. Some good points, some not so good. Not cringy like most. :)
As a coin investor, I greatly appreciate your view points. Everyone ia so passionate about their opinions, when (in my opinion) both sides have very valid points. Where they become ignorant is when they believe everything they say is confirmed fact, when it is not. Humans nees to learn how to look at all sides then make their own educated decisiin, not regurgitate talking points of only their favorite news outlet.
Looks like Bitcoin is about to go up lol
I didn't hear you address the fact that bitcoin already has an alternative derivatives market that allows infinite investment into bitcoin-based investments. For example, a mutual fund or company stock that owns bitcoin has bitcoin exposure that essentially infinitely increases the investment capabilities far beyond what directly purchasing coins allow.
The mining problem is easily solved by allotting a certain portion of transaction fees charged to users to miners that validate those transactions. This would in essence become the cost of "banking" with Bitcoin. Cheers.
Very nice 👏
Liked and subscribed as I like that you had well thought out ideas. Will be interesting to see how it all works out.
Don't even plan on watching this video with a bait title. If you haven't done 100 hours of research on Bitcoin don't bother making a video about it. Clear misunderstanding.
But I did... much more than that amount of research. Which is why the "do more homework" comments are so comical. It's the Bitcoin Bro's lazy defense that they think magically makes them right. No. There are people who understand, and reject. The answer is not always in "if they did more homework they'd get it."
Scott - have you spent 15 minutes watching Dalio podcast that explains the history of global reserve currency Until you do that, you haven’t done your homework. Your comments on British pound were uninformed and incorrect. British pound was not global reserve asset since 700s
@@scotttrench4169 then I guess it’s an issue with morality. I guess you standing with a centralized government system that’s historically caused political conflict and wars by stripping value at the expense of its own people is what you stand for. Bitcoin offers a solution to provide transparency on a global stage, cant be controlled by one group of bad individuals, the rules can be read and followed by any language, provides a value escape for people in third world countries who never had a fair chance bc of their governmenr, more energy efficient than banking, no discrimination of race, color, religion, age, etc but yet you want to say it will fail? I’m not understanding isn’t that what we all want? A system anyone can verify, that isn’t controlled by one government, that can be globally transacted 24/7 anywhere anyplace and isn’t printed into oblivion with hyperinflation? Not to mention it meeting all the standards of what makes a good currency. Portability, divisibility, durability, limited supply, acceptability, and uniformity? It beats gold and paper currency in every single aspect of what is to be considered “money”
A new asset class… that’s all… I bet you own some!
@@scotttrench4169 not sure what you think you did but for sure it wasn't your homework. maybe you spend the time watching porn, or cartoons, or whatever, but anyone spending 100 hours on Bitcoin and not understanding the most basic stuff.... well, that person can't be anything smart.
You are the adult version of a 5th grade boy- who goes to school claiming his dad can beat up the other kids' dad.
People who say Bitcoin will go to zero can never explain when it will happen or why it hasn't happened yet. Not all Bitcoin investors are "bros" or maximalists. Some of us understand the risks but we also understand the shams that are our fiat money supply and fractional reserve banking. Bitcoin is at least a hedge like precious metals and possibly much more.
super well articulated, thanks so much. I would add: there is a huge naive argument that bitcoin can or could escape government control, for better or worse. it turns out, if gov wants to mess with any exchange and fobid it, it's for sure doable. so unless everybody suddenly stops needing real money all at the same time, and bitcoin become somehow practical, there is no way in the world it becomes anything else than a beautiful tech demo. If you disagree: I'm sorry, you must own some BTC (it's not because you bought something that it becomes valuable)
Bitcoin is going to absorb all this guys wealth
Point at 21:47 is actually incorrect, the section is called "The Blockchain's Big Problems". The truth is that there are more options beside proof of work, and there are even options that doesn't even required "fees" to incentive the usage and protection of the network so the section should be called "Bitcoin's consensus big problems". I agree that bitcoin is not the best solution, but unfortunately is what most people know because it's what makes more noise. And to be honest multiple of the facts you share are related to that instead to blockchain in general.
Haven’t finished watching yet, but I have something to add that Max Kaiser had been completely convinced in 2011 that we should all buy silver and that would be the solution over our problem so he was perhaps right but not enough people bought it apparently. Evan would’ve had to take delivery and he wanted to crash JP Morgan, which would probably have caused another economic crisis and who knows the unintended consequences of that.
I believe you might just be thinking about it wrong, as well as everyone else. No one knows what will come of bitcoin, and you should at the very least acknowledge that. You might want to put 1%-5% into the thesis....just in case it catches on.
do you think? this guy is so short-minded that he will never get it!
Luv it! You make the best arguments for Bitcoin by “maximalizing” its role as digital gold..
Fractional banking is inflationary we don't want this. Bitcoin gets us away from that.
It’s also filled with nonproductive intermediaries that depend on government titles and licenses and other high barriers of entry to siphon value from the working class..
It’s great seeing someone who’s actually educated themselves on it whether they like BTC or not. I’m personally invested in it so I found this video of a different perspective interesting. Thanks for taking the time to make it.
The different perspective is just factually wrong in too many ways to be taken seriously. Lot of errors are obvious and the truth is easy to find with a lot less than 100 hours of research
The cool thing about today's economy is that we can all be right. It doesn't have to be bitcoin winning and everyone losing or bitcoin losing and everyone against it winning. There's so many ways to make money in this day and age. I believe new technology such as blockchain and AI will continue to make people wealthy right alongside traditional methods like real estate and stocks. We can all win and make money. The real luck is being born in a time and place that allows such things.
I admire your bravery, Scott! My personal experience with passionate Bitcoiners is that they are defensive and quick to insult. Great video, and I appreciate you putting your thoughts out there! Keep it up!
No, no, no. Bitcoiners would never be defensive and quick to insult. They would never say "do more homework", use foul language, insult, threaten, arrogantly dismiss those who disagree, or engage in similar behaviors...
Why would a Bitcoiner take offense to this presentation?
It’s all old, tired arguments that we’ve heard for about a decade. It’s a big snooze fest in the realm of bitcoin FUD.
Not all Bitcoiners insult. There are plenty who stay quiet. I didn't stay quiet but I also don't insult people. But when is Bitcoin going to zero again?
Maxi here. Don’t insult. Might come off defensive, but that’s because it’s frustrating that people have such staunch opinions using surface level arguments on this particular asset. Everyone would be much better served if they were honest and simply said “I’m not sure, I’ll need to do more investigation on the topic”.
For example, I don’t feel compelled to take a stance on semiconductors as an investment. Why? Because I haven’t spent 30+ hours researching the industry. Or 50+ hours. Or 100 hours.
Based on the arguments you present here, I know for a fact you haven’t invested the requisite time on bitcoin to have a credible opinion to share with others. Especially if they look to you for investment guidance. So why even have an opinion?
Very good. Transaction speed and costs. Btc is price based only and its worth is soley what someone is willing to pay you simply can't transact with it. No one accepts it too volatile and extremely costly. Tears will flow when btc and its narrative fails
Bro. you didn't think your contra arguments till the end. You just started to do your homework concerning BTC, whitch is good. Keep on study BTC, finally you will become bitcoin maxi too. We bitcoiners don't need to believe, we verify to know. Thanks for your video!
Bro you should rename your podcast to NGMIsmallmoneypockets
The Netherlands have not failed. We no longer use the guilder. The UK has not ceased. The pound sterling is only the 4th most internationally traded fiat. Claiming it is a longterm fiat currency is not the same as claiming the British pound Sterling has been the international currency that long. We use the petrodollar rather than gold. BRICS has other ideas, but for now that is the case. Designed Bitcoin and gold both have finite aspects. Bitcoin profiteering absolutely has aspects of FOMO and next greater fool. I have had a coinbase account for almost a decade. I have used the tendies during crypto runs for index fund and low expense ratio ETF investing as well as for the down-payment on a house. I have also been able to use crypto for international aid. There will absolutely be continued gas fee improvement or other improvements in contract and decentralization changes. It makes sense to have a small allocation to or awareness of crypto. People do not need to put their entire savings into crypto.
I often look for counter arguments to try shake some conviction in Bitcoin. I’m afraid these arguments were weak and poorly researched. This guys is missing a lot of nuance that takes many hours to understand. Like Satoshi said “If you don’t get it, I don’t have the time to convince you, sorry” In the mean time I will just keep stacking Sats thanks for the conviction boost.
LOL
Thanks for validating my belief & investment in Bitcoin
I'm a Bitcoiner, not a maximalist but a Bitcoiner nonetheless. I fully respect your thesis, I disagree, but I can see where you're coming from. The funny thing is... with enough mental gymnastics, we can all see that we're both potentially correct here...
IMO the 1 thing all data has in common is time degrades the data. How long can the data last until it starts to corrupt due to time and use, not to mention in 140 years BTC will be a lost tech from the baby age of tech.
Well agleast you put thoughts in these criticisms without yelling bitcoin is tulips.
The idea that the US has to fail or the dollar needs to collapse for bitcoin to thrive is not a universally held thought among bitcoin maximalist.
The funniest thing to me is how the BTC hodler will compare BTC in every single way to gold but then go on to say how stupid gold is. So which is it? You like dogital gold but you hate analog BTC (gold)?
The mining issue is 140 years away they will have the fees take care of that by then
Even if i did not believr in it. I would still buy it at 9cents and sell it at 70k. Like i use electric but i dont know how ot makes lights turn on😊
yes, you are saying you do not believe in bitcoin thesis - your logic is funny - if it is not crazy why you don't want be in this asset as of some part of your portfolio? Why I am asking, because you are seeing some potential in fulfilling this potential and the whole video is about convincing yourself not to believe.
You don't understand Bitcoin to nor you understand money neither history of empires
Let me tell you something.. hope you read this.
1. I myself have bitcoin , but never bashed other people.
2. I don't bet against America. Whole purpose of Bitcoin is to tell government that we have one more option. That's it.
3. Rich people have majority of their assets in real estate, gold, stock, etc. If you invested large sum in NVdia, does it make that person NVidia maxi? If one has large assets in real estate, does it make that person real estate maxi?
I think you are being too extreme by talking about extreme people. In reality, bitcoin investors just invest in bitcoin because they just believe in it. I don't believe in 'doomsday' unless nuclear war goes off.
This guy is 100% correct regarding the deflationary asoects of BTC. It's why it is not, by definition, money. Broad money base always has to grow. How can you take a loan or mortgage in BTC? Or buy bonds and clip a coupon in BTC? You cant do it. BTC is, for better or worse, a collectible limited edition vurtual token BUT not money.
I have to reply to your closing comment-- you are not really happy to be challenged of your view- ref your research- none of us really know how this is going to work out for sure- there are many moving parts to this- we will find out who is right when it happens- I have followed Crypto since 2017- and I have more questions than answers !
I'm a software engineer, and I've been aware of bitcoin since 2009, read whitepaper and understand what it is. I don't buy bitcoin, which I think is all I need to say, but appreciate that speculators have profited from it, just be careful to get out before the frenzy ends - which is what the bitcoin whales will try to do to get rich in fiat currency.
Scott you have not done enough research 😂very valid points this discussion or lecture was insightful thanks for sharing
You mentioned the GBP as a government currency that has been around since 760 AD 12:09, however the GBP was backed by gold until 1931. Wouldn't this be more of an argument for the BTC standard of sound money if you're arguing longevity? What is the longest a fiat currency has lasted?
You mentioned that the world would be reluctant to adopt a currency that is linked to pollution via the mining process 19:19, yet said you believe in the US military one of the largest polluters on earth 10:30. The US military is a huge reason why the USD is so strong. The USD is essentially backed by oil. If a country tries to sell oil in a currency other than US dollars they invade said country in order to "spread democracy" and "stop terrorism" just ask Saddam. I'd settle for the mining process over military pollution and needless killing/wars. I don't think the pollution argument holds much water because the world already has adopted the USD as a world reserve currency.
Good points!
1) I do not think my points are incongruous. That Bitcoin is polluting is a problem for Bitcoin, as bitcoin does not have physical force to defend its use. That the US military pollutes heavily can be a problem, but it can back up it's existence with... physical force. So, I don't understand how the fact that both cause pollution and suck energy is an argument for bitcoin in any sense.
2) I am not saying what "ought" to be. I even in the video make it clear that I respect, admire, and deeply empathize with the bitcoin worldview! I am saying that I plan to bet against it.
The flaw is you think BTC is a currency. Its a security network to transfer wealth
The value of bitcoin is that I can move my money anywhere in the world instantly. Just wait until economic instability and government control of capital movement ramps up around the world. Bitcoin is the only way to protect yourself.
I seriously want to make a video rebuttle to this.
You make a few decent points, but in the grand scheme of things, the height of intelligence and human output from the perspective the human species has a major problem within the framework of the us government. We preach peace, but spend more on war than peace. Most of our budget is invested into war power. We have a human-based ponzi scheme, defined by the value aggregate related to the output of our physical power.
In the future, this will prove to be an antiquated model, as well as a major limitation to prosperity of our species.
In the future, decentralization and community-lead governance, will allow DOAs to regulate on a government level to abolish war and destruction, such that the wasted bloat of our government can focus these values on prosperity rather than destruction.
The average human doesn't know what the government does, but the government wants to enforce polices that enable them to watch all of our transactions, but we can view none of theirs. Decentralization will resolve this in the future.
A lot of things will change..... The US will either adapt or collapse, hard to say what the future holds here, but either can be right. Its just a matter of what the people are willing to accept.
Societies go from peace to war to peace, over and over again.
None of this has to do with Bitcoin vs the dollar though, its more of a failure point of the us as a reserve currency.
Bitcoin Maximalists are often toxic and eccentric. They don’t represent all of Bitcoin. I prefer to call myself a Bitcoiner. Ive done an incredible amount of research to debunk every single point you tried to make in this video. And honestly it would be a lot of typing. Good luck with your anti Bitcoin journey.
90 percent is strong pro bitcoin
10 percent you are right
I agree about position of USA in long run.
BTC probably will be part of , not only one asset backed new version of dolar, digital dollar
Portfilo dominated by BTC will overperform your portfolio in the future, not only in last 10 years
Every one make own decisions
I get it you are a 100% USA all the way guy. BTC does not care about your feelings it just is and ounce you get passed your emotions regarding your USA fiat you will understand. There is no end game problem the fees will pay the miners in the future if Netflix can have people in other countries use their services they will happily pay 100million in fees to generate 400million in profits. And just like Limewire free bad quality services people will pay for high quality content like we do today for you name the music streaming service. Why do you care about paying your tax in btc let the government print more to pay the bills so we can buy more $20 burritos haha
You lost 25% of the dollar value in the last four years, no fiat currency had lasted more than 40 years but you BELIEVE your grand kids will use the dollar. Ok..... Good luck with that
love the genuine speech. this could have been true 5 years ago. but now it's too late. Bitcoin has already established itself. you are mid-curving the opportunity. the world is ready for a hard scarce store of value. and Bitcoin has conquered minds to be that store of value. btw, us in crypto also don't like Bitcoin maxi very much. do not amalgamate Bitcoin with crypto with Austrian school... please. i agree Bitcoin won't replace USD. haha, that's actually a funny idea from maxis. in practice, USDT on the Tron blockchain is leading as a medium of exchange. there is $55B of USDT on Tron today, used in many countries where USD is much better than the local fiat currency. it's not Bitcoin for sure. your arguments are good. i would say the main error you make is to assume Bitcoin can only keep value if it replaces some existing fiat. it does not need to. it will keep value as long as enough people believe in it. and at this point in time, it's going to go a lot higher. re-read "Sapiens" to better understand your fellow homo sapiens.
This is why XRP exists. Money is not scarce, but it should also have capped supply. Banks agree.
Secondly, who said Bitcoin has to replace anything anyway? Bitcoin can run parallel to Fiat...USD, GBP, EURO, YEN, PASSO etc all run parallel to each other but have connected value...
I believe that Countries will begin to refuse the sale of Commodities for Fiat. Because fiat is infinite. That is when BTC takes its seat @ the head of the table.
Lo and behold.
This is what a future 700k bitcoin FOMO buyer who's been butthurt by a few maxis in his past sounds like.
As others have noted, you're trying to take down the thesis of the stereotypical Bitcoin Maxi. Even that is being done using dates and disproven arguments.
That said, the vast majority of bitcoins are not the Maxis.
I believe strongly in the future of Bitcoin, yet don't believe currencies and countries have to fail for it to succeed. I don't consider myself bold to believe it is the best way to save for my future and my kids college education. Any Bitcoin held for 4 years or more is worth at least triple what it was when it was bought and that trend looks likely to continue.
That's just financials - the Trojan horse. The far greater benefit is the sovereignty and return to accountability that comes with holding and using it.
Bitcoin is an Asset first, this guy needs to do more studying
Bitcoin doesnt care what you think about it. Just like Gold doesnt. It doesnt have feelings. What you are doing is arguing against the IDEA of bitcoin and against the PEOPLE who promote it. If I listrned to this whole video, which i didnt, 3 blocks are mined in the time it takes to listen to all of this.
Yeah I appreciate the attempt but this is going to age like milk.
So you believe Michael Saylor is completely wrong?
and i am subscribing because i like very much your first principle thinking. i went through many of these same points in my journey here... haha.
YES!!! Finally, someone does a thoughtful takedown. Bitcoin really is interesting, and blockchain tech is genius, but as a tool for building wealth, as some form of alt currency...no no no.
Fantastic job with this, and thanks for being a rare bird talking about this (neither zealot nor ideologue). Very thoughtful take. Max Keiser isn't gonna like this.
Ok just finished the video. Scott is a) incredibly bright, and b) too humble. This was absolutely fantastic. He stated his counterthesis clearly without overstating, but also without academic-sounding hedges, making it accessible for people who might be new to this space. Wish I could give it two thumbs up.
As a Bitcoin maximalist... I felt he strawmanned the whole thing and only understands the brochure..
He's done his home work, but only a couple hours worth.
@@OnAGoodDayProduction thanks for the respectful pushback! Which critique did you find problematic?
I suppose the good news here is that this is an empirical question. Eventually the chips will fall where they're supposed to, but as they say, 'markets can remain irrational longer than we can remain solvent.' Whoever's wrong on this can remain wrong and rich for a long, long time; the obverse is, of course, also true.
@@falsificationism energy fud: Bitcoin creates energy that would otherwise be ignored.
USA doesn't need to fail.. so silly.
0% adoption? Lo fucking L even if my worst case, small nations will adopt...
Volatility... Yes, it's an immature asset that will fall as price raises.
Deflationary Economy = hording money is sooooo shallow of thinking that I almost threw my phone.... People would only spend money on thing that bring value, less waste, less consumerism, less climate change..
And the most important: if money is not a commodity (like Bitcoin) then you are unconsciously admitting that your grand children are to be born to serve you.
Credit money = enslavement of future generations to pay for promises made today.
Take care, keep studying, ignore this fool.
@@scotttrench4169go listen to: guy swan - why I'm still not buying Bitcoin
Every fud you gave was superficial and I'm not gonna type up an essay when that podcast does a better job.
What incredible video!!! Thank you so much for the thoughtfulness and information
^^USDC is the US $ digital currency. ETH is tied to trillions in real world assets and utilities. Also commodities like wheat and corn are now being tokenized via ETH proof of stake, unlike BTC and proof of work. Blackrock agrees, Ondo is doing incredibly well. The future of crypto is not BTC.
You said that you understand bitcoin. I was hoping to learn something I didn't know. How disappointing. You lack the basics which makes most of your criticisms irrelevant. (example: bitcoin's energy usage; Why it is necessary. I assume you know why but you don't mention it. How it uses only the cheapest energy and/or stranded energy. How it innovates for cheaper energy production, and how it helps to stabilize energy grids, and how it brings needed energy to areas in the world that are without). If you understood those things it would be difficult for you to claim "It uses too much energy." Without significant energy investment Bitcoin wouldn't exist.
Bitcoin is a religion (among other things). Religions do very well. It's not perfect but it's good enough for now. I expect a Super Bitcoin to come along that has all the features necessary for survival. Hopefully it will be a fork so that current holders of Bitcoin will be grandfathered in, instead of destroyed by a better competitor.
Not a maxi .. so many holes in your theories where to start..
I'll say this; for 5 usd i can convert btc to Solana. For .oo1 fees i can spend that value , with a transaction time of one second.
Fact; last month visa transacted 2.2 trillion on sol. Backend. Which is saying we are living on block chain rails now, visa transactions. USDC, but doesnt have to be in USDC.
34 trillion US debt..400 trillion word debt..if U dont devalue U cant pay that off mathamatically. Monetization has been going on and will continue. Just math not opinion.
But yes fiat no doubt will be around for a long while - longer then I'll live.
BTC has network effect , that could change, but doesnt matter because U can swap it out cheap and fast for whatever comes next.
The dollar is a captured asset, U assume those that control have your best interests at heart.
Bitcoin not going to zero. The devs & miners will move the decimal point because the fundamental unit is a satoshi. Decentralized protocols, in which bitcoin was the first, render many early 21st century administrative paradigms monolithic, slow moving & detached from the economy.
If someone gifted me one BTC right now I would immediately liquidate and buy utility coins. Lol. Bitcoin was the steam industrial revolution, utility tokens are the electric revolution.
Excellent thank you so much!
Your argument is flawed. Bitcoin is not a currency and most Bitcoin advocates don’t see it as one. It is an asset- a store of value. Time to listen to Michael Saylor.
Thank you to all who listened/watched! I look forward to discussion!
But I am even more excited to give equal and opposite disdain to any crypto bro who says “you didn’t do your homework”. These pieces of work have met their match here and this too easy out they have long used elsewhere is over.
I expect and am fine with polite disagreement, but the nonspecific “do more homework” garbage is an insult to your own intelligence and clearly inappropriate.
i see why you only got 197 likes after 2 days. not a btc maxi. as an invest BTC is unbeatable. the dollar and BTC can coexist as well as other currencies.
btc in not a blockchain is a time-chain
Bro NGMI
Bro,1 BTC can run the global economy, Gold is in abondent on this earth and in the universe and Gold is needed for to go in space. You have not done your home work, what amaze me is that you are a youg man that is living in the year 1900 and I can be your father and I can live in this Digital age. Succes with your believe. USA RIP.
Engagement farming
get ready to make a meme with this guy's face. watch bitcoin go to 100k, 500k, we perhaps 1 Million in our lifetime . lol