M8 Simulation on the San Andreas Fault
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- Опубликовано: 4 июл 2013
- See other animations: • Earthquake Animations
Animation of simulated ground motion after a possible magnitude 8 earthquake on the San Andreas fault, showing ground shaking throughout southern California for more than 75 seconds after the rupture initiates near Parkfield. The Ventura, Los Angeles, and San Bernardino areas continue to shake due to reverberation within their underlying soft sedimentary basins.
"Petascale simulations such as this one are needed to understand the rupture and wave dynamics of the largest earthquakes, at shaking frequencies required to engineer safe structures," said Thomas Jordan, Director of the Southern California Earthquake Center.
San Diego Supercomputer Center (SDSC) researchers provided the high-performance computing and scientific visualization expertise for the simulation. Scientific details of the earthquake were developed by scientists at San Diego State University (SDSU). Ohio State University (OSU) researchers were also part of the collaborative effort to improve the efficiency of the software involved.
At the 2010 Supercomputer Conference in New Orleans, this animation was selected as a Gordon Bell Prize finalist.
Simulation: Yifeng Cui, Kim Olsen, Thomas Jordan, Kwangyoon Lee, jun Zhou, Patrick Small, Daniel Roten, Geoffrey Ely, Dhabaleswar Panda, John Levesque, Steve Day, Philip Maechling
Visualization: Amit Chourasia
San Diego Supercomputer Center
San Diego State University
University of Southern California
The Ohio State University
Cray Inc.
Computation Platform: Jaguar, Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Acknowledgements:
NSF and DOE (INCITE Program)
Base Map and DEM courtesy of Geoffrey Ely
Southern California Earthquake Center
High Performance GeoComputing Lab, San Diego Supercomputer Center
Visualization Services, San Diego Supercomputer Center 
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well, that's comforting...
Due to the nature of the terrain, would we expect to see a large level of liquefaction, or does the droughts we have had over the years help prevent this?
I assume it shouldnt matter if the moisture comes up from an area that probably so deep underneath the surface that the recent drought has not yet effected the underlying moisture levels?
Shouldn't this be the other way around? My understanding is that its the fault area SOUTH of LA near Salton Sea that's the prime candidate for rupture
Holy Moly- aaaaaaahhhhhh!
Not necessarily. This animation shows an epicenter in Parkfield, CA. It's just as likely to be centered there as well.
Hello SCEC. For the Santa Barbara - Goleta area, would the shaking movement be around 10 to 15 cm per second? What is the estimated shaking time for the same area?
I'm sure there is a geological reason why the directivity is forecast to travel southward and I am curious to know the rationale. Is it because the plate is moving northwest that the simulation presents a southeasterly direction? Or is that too simple?
i live in Jurupa Valley. Would it be intense in my area?
Is the point of origin random or is there some evidence that could be accurate?
I live in Sacramento ca what would happen to me? Would I be safe?
Is there any kind of information related to tsunami warnings? The possibility of Tsunami hitting the entire coast of a California San Andreas earthquake progression???
None. At all.
Any thoughts on how bad it would be for San Diego?
Are the buildings there as up-to-date as the Orange County area?
Hi Mike,
Thank you for your questions! At the 16-second mark, you can see seismic waves arrive in San Diego which would result in strong ground shaking. This could potentially result in a major loss of life and property.
While building codes are strong in the United State, especially throughout California, they do vary by city, not just at the county level. Therefore, it is difficult to assess the difference between building safety in Orange County versus San Diego County.
All things considered, we have to ask ourselves what we will do together to become more resilient and prepared. One place to start is at earthquakecountry.org/sevensteps. Building codes, individual preparedness, and emergency response are just a few considerations in determining how ready will be when The Big One strikes again.
+mike evans My professor told me that San Diego would actually be the safest place when the "big one" hits. I forgot the reasoning because it was awhile back when I took the course.
Could be tomorrow, could be ten years from now. They really don't know
Why does the shaking stay in l.a for a lil longer
+Yaj Hernandez Most likely due to the 'bouncy' sediment that fills most of the LA basin. This stuff acts somewhat like Jello...
+Yaj Hernandez Thank you for asking! The L.A. basin is like a bowl of jelly due to its soft sediments. Therefore, the shaking lasts longer, and is in some cases amplified and reverberated in certain locations due to specific geological features. Imagine shaking a bowl of hard rocks - those rocks will stop shaking pretty quickly once you stop shaking it. But if you shake a bowl of jelly at the same time, the jelly will shake for a bit even when you stop shaking the bowl.
How badly would this affect Napa Valley?
What you never hear is how the radiation will kill you if you survive all the mentioned items.
I live in Glendale, CA. How bad would we be affected?
+Kurami Rocket Glendale is in LA county, you're toast
Do you know when this might hit?
I live in San Jose what could happen to me if this occurs
A lot of stuff in your house will break your house could collapse but more than likely you would survive this. Now cascadia is different.
what would it be like for me ( I live in antelope valley next to the fault)
+S i x 6 G O D Thank you for visiting our RUclips channel! This is a very large, plausible earthquake scenario, rupturing from Parkfield and southward. The direction in which a fault ruptures is called "directivity" - this means that the bulk of seismic energy will be propagated in that direction. Therefore, in this scenario, you can expect a great deal of shaking as the fault is rupturing from north to south, as can all of Southern California; a grade of "severe" on the Modified Mercalli Intensity scale. When planning for earthquakes, intensity is most important (more than magnitude), as it shows where we can expect most of the damage, injury, and loss of life. Learn more about the Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale here: earthquake.usgs.gov/learn/topics/mercalli.php
+S i x 6 G O D Depends if it's in your backyard or not
yeah i live in palmdale. ill most likely be dead if im at my house. i live right next to barrel springs lol
hehe lancaster for me
How badly would this affect the Bay Area? I'm in the South Bay and am curious about the effects here and the area beyond.
Probably a lot of shaking and a tsunami 😬 I'm from LA and I'm not excited for these buildings to fall
Little shaking, Hayward fault is the potential candidat for large earthquake in Bay Area (7.1).
@@austinleon2526 Their isn't going to be a tsunami and buildings wont collapse on mass
Heh. Best part of being in south California, the mountains shield us from waves.
I'm just a little worried and curious, is Fresno ca going to get hit hard? I know I see it on this computer but will it get hit harder because I live there
+Eddie Quezada Im in Southern California and most reports are aiming its going to destroy so cal, and possibly destroy nor cal as well, but nor cal has a better chance of survival
+Tyler Machal San Diego is the only city in socal that might not be destroyed.
Extremely rattled and a little scuffed up in the older parts, but I think we would be OK
Fresno would most likely not be hit. If the San Andreas Fault does rupture it's is expected to just cause damage to So Cal. Alought there's a very small chance that it could reach up north, but it's not expected. This is stated by the U.S Geological Survey.
Fresno would feel it. Much like the San Simeon event was felt. But given Fresno’s distance from the SA the expected damage would be minimal.
Fresno’s issue with earthquakes would be loss of electricity and loss of water.
So we're pretty much screwed.
Hello friend! What would the damage, intensity and loss of life be like in Temecula? Hard to tell
I live in the Imperial County just above Mexicali and the Border. This is not good...
I live in San Bernardino how bad would it be
Bad enough to move to Arizona
On screen ads only ruin it from 0:22 onwards ....
I'm more afraid of wild fires (2007!!!) than "the big one" in San Diego, but I think it's absurd to say, "ahh shucks, we're 'safe'." The house I live in would remain standing, but drive 20 mins east and there are a lot of old houses built into the side of hills. One shake and a bolder comes loose, breaking a beam that holds up a house's back porch.
the people who bought those houses and continue to live in them knew the risks...it's very simple not to buy a house like that
If I live in Fresno, what would happen?
You get seperated from the rest of California.
I live in Fresno too. Guess we would own beach front property
Sucks to live between Los Angeles and Anaheim, where most of the shaking would happen.
All on oil fields
I'm just curious on what's going to happen to central California and the whole San Joaquin valley ?
+Mario Alexanderr As you can from the animation, severe shaking will be felt across the region of Central California for several minutes, but due to the directivity of the rupture, most of the seismic energy will be focused toward Southern California. Take steps to get prepared now: EarthquakeCountry.org/sevensteps
+SCEC im in East LA, its gonna directly hit me. shit .......
SCEC I live in the SAN Joaquin valley. Small town near Delano California. How hard is the impact gonna be? I'm legit scared for my life.
We will own beach front property
It’s just a 8.0, I live in Chile.
Yea but you guys dont have Hollywood, Beverly Hills, venice beace, and hundred sky high buildings. Los Angeles is one of the most populated, important cities in the world.
Let It Be ✌🏻
I'm glad I live in San Diego
It perfectly hits san Diego pretty hard lol also supposedly it'll take the shore underwater sooo
Nope and nope. San Diego will definitely feel it but there will be little to no damage. And how do you figure an earthquake on land can affect the water? lol
I live in Italy, what would happ.. Oh wait
McDonalds will shut down and ur women will have to learn to cook :3
how wrecked is San Luis Obispo going to be?
that place has a 80% chance of surviving with a II scale.
Looks like the Inland Empire will survive , no justice
Send private..
Los Angeles will be flattened. I have family in California. just great.
this will certainly not happen, at least any time soon. The Fort Tejon earthquake in 1857 was a 7.9 and unusually strong. The only other time a San Andreas earthquake was above 7.5 was in 1550 in the past 1200 years (beta.latimes[dot]com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-earthquake-san-andreas-grapevine-20170307-story[dot]html).
The 1994 Northridge earthquake (and the 1971 Sylmar one) released some of the energy of San Andreas (as thrust faults do), which means it probably would be below 7.5 if it happens in less than several decades.
@@jacobpeters5458 phew...
You also gotta know that LA has been retrofitting its water and gas lines to be earthquake resistant
holy shit well I live in northern orange county so I'm fuked
+H Johal, PhD lol trru man
No NY will be sink in Ocean
SO THE EARTH QUAKE CAN HIT TIJUANA.. ;O HOPE ALL MY MEXICAN TACO STANDS CAN SUSTAIN SUCH A EARTHQUAKE.. DONT WANT TO IMAGINE LIVING WITH OUT MY GREAT MEXICAN TACOS.. VIVA MEXICO !!