The Legendary Probability Calculation Has been done backwards! You actually have about 45% chance of a legendary chest if you collect all the chests! The percentages for the items in the chests are NOT overall chance, it's the chance of that item dropping once that specific rarity chest has dropped!
It's 45.5% or 100% - the chance of not hitting one (0.98^30) You've done 2x30/100 = 60/100 = 60% which is just not how percentages work, you cant just divide the average down to the amount of chances you have to find the chance of something
pinned comment has been updated to reflect that, i understand i miscalculated the chances of overall legendary chances, the rest of the figures still apply
they should have given chests every 24hrs not 48hrs and more than 3 chests....it was meant to reward active players but with these drop rate etc makes it feel not so rewarding
This is the worst update Out of 14 chests I ONLY got 1 rare . The rest were common I only got 2 snacks the rest were complete sh!ts A big L to Supercell
i managed to get fireball, also why does everyone just expect a bunch of freebies, like massive ones, sheesh this clash community can never be satisfied
This math is so wrong lol. If you have a 98 percent chance of NOT getting a legendary and you do that twice you have .98 * .98 which is .9604 which means in only 2 chests you have a 3.96 percent chance of getting a legendary. If we do .98 * .98 30 times we get a 54 percent chance of getting a non legendary every time. Which means we have a ~46% chance of getting a legendary if we open 30 chests. Please revisit the math in the video its just misleading
Your probability of getting a legendary chest is incorrect btw. if theres a 2% chance of getting a legendary how does opening 30 reduce ur chance of getting a legendary to 0.6% lol. Theres around at 45% chance of getting a legendary chest after 30 chest opens
The Legendary Probability Calculation Has been done backwards! You actually have about 45% chance of a legendary chest if you collect all the chests! The percentages for the items in the chests are NOT overall chance, it's the chance of that item dropping once that specific rarity chest has dropped!
It's 45.5% or 100% - the chance of not hitting one (0.98^30)
You've done 2x30/100 = 60/100 = 60% which is just not how percentages work, you cant just divide the average down to the amount of chances you have to find the chance of something
pinned comment has been updated to reflect that, i understand i miscalculated the chances of overall legendary chances, the rest of the figures still apply
@@TomNub yup, great work either way
And you get an epic chest on your main like I did, you get excited and you get a clan house decoration 😭😭🤣
or book of building on a maxed account 😂😂
they should have given chests every 24hrs not 48hrs and more than 3 chests....it was meant to reward active players but with these drop rate etc makes it feel not so rewarding
This is the worst update
Out of 14 chests I ONLY got 1 rare . The rest were common
I only got 2 snacks the rest were complete sh!ts
A big L to Supercell
Unfortunately that's how this system works, personally I'm not a huge fan of the rng aspect either
i dont really see how this is supercells fault. you were just unlucky. ofc you are not gonna get att the good things, their supposed to be rare.
@@MilesKrepelka-k2c exactly! that's why the rewards in higher tier chests are so good!
i managed to get fireball, also why does everyone just expect a bunch of freebies, like massive ones, sheesh this clash community can never be satisfied
Maybe they should give the same amount of rare items to everyone
the math is wrong, if you get a legendary 2/100 times or 1/50, you get on average 0.6 legendary chests/30, so the chance of one is 60% not 0.6%
Check pinned comment, I did the math backwards, it's about a 60% chance :)
Every chest I opened on my main: dark elixir or magic snack
First chest on my super rushed mini: frozen arrow
thats great though no? id love some equipment on my minis!
I have gotten one epic chest so far and it was a rune of builder Elixer.... no sign of the legendary yet, maybe 3 rares. the rest are all commons.
I got a skin for the royal champion from a legendary
Nice! Which one?
@@TomNub the shadow champion
bro you sound just like Judo I gotta sub now🙏🏽
its funny so many people say this but our accents are so different 👀👀
This math is so wrong lol. If you have a 98 percent chance of NOT getting a legendary and you do that twice you have .98 * .98 which is .9604 which means in only 2 chests you have a 3.96 percent chance of getting a legendary. If we do .98 * .98 30 times we get a 54 percent chance of getting a non legendary every time. Which means we have a ~46% chance of getting a legendary if we open 30 chests. Please revisit the math in the video its just misleading
check pinned comment mate, i know i did it wrong, its been updated to suit, the rest of the number still apply
Got gauntlet in the 5 chest mess up ... cant complain
I got a christmas log out of a chest lol
Got the frozen arrow so I can’t complain
I got spiky ball on my 3rd legendary chest
Oof! Nice!
I got it from my first one😭
legendary chest? W
@@TomNub yeah got rc skin
F2p got a legendary today.. got a king skin 😁😁😁😁
nice! which one?
@@TomNub the shadow king .. was actually surprised i got that tbh
Bro i got hammer of building fro legendary chest
Clash Royale be community be like : "first time ?! " 😂
Isn’t the probability depends on TH level?
nope! only thing that changes is the skins depending on what you have unlocked and amount of resources
I got a book off buildings out off it
nice! I got a book of everything
I got a hammer of fighting 🎉
Nice! What troop will you be upgrading?
@@TomNub i think I will use it on the witch
Your probability of getting a legendary chest is incorrect btw. if theres a 2% chance of getting a legendary how does opening 30 reduce ur chance of getting a legendary to 0.6% lol. Theres around at 45% chance of getting a legendary chest after 30 chest opens
apologies, you are correct. i did the math backwards. ahaha
@@TomNub didnt see ur pinned comment before my bad! Glad u corrected it
@@jaydennewport9281 thanks for pointing it out, i realised after I had already uploaded.
only common chests this is literal scam
damn, any of the new snacks at least?
1:00 math aint mathing
@@portgasDzaki check pinned comment