Nice take on ATZ. There was certainly a perfect storm of events that led to their stock price tanking. After seeing an interview with Brian Hill (former CEO and co-founder) during the downturn, my confidence was increased in the managements awareness on their own situation and their plan to come through it. I averaged down and have been rewarded . Still consider ATZ my portfolio spec play, as consumer discretionary is a fickle market (like you pointed out).
Incredible analysis here, definitely on the conservative side though. Managment is expecting more margin expansion, as well, they are adding locations in canada still. Also, lets not forget their expansion through aquisitions as they bring in brands (like reigning champ) that not only expand their offerings, but expand their tarket audience. Currently a store almost strictly for women, what happens when they start growing their mens lines (reminds me of early Lulu). This company has such a strong grasp on the pulse of the industry, and their history proves it. Great analysis still, hope you made the investment, as of writing shares are ocer $40. (Dosclosure, ATZ makes up 25% of ny portfolio)
I like it’s numbers but I can’t wrap my head around Aritzia qualitatively. As In what’s their ‘secret sauce’? With retailers being so fickle usually, I can’t ascertain what makes them more than a fad. Maybe I’m just old and out of style though
It’s a proven brand that’s been around and popular for decades in Canada. Their super puff jackets sure were trendy for a bit, but the brand is far from a “fad” in my opinion. It’s not like their seeing booming results primarily as a result of trendiness, it’s more a result of expansion. I’m no fashion expert, but anecdotally, the girls in my life have always been into the brand. I don’t usually bet on a proven brand dying i a couple years. They’ve proven success in the states so far, think it’s more likely than not that it continues. At the rate management targets is the question…
I live behind an Aritzia store since last year and found a lot of young consumer and a lot of traffic compare store behind like a Tommy Hillfinger. And on the outlet i saw a lot of Aritzia purchased bag by these girl. That a reason who i believe of the success of Aritzia and allready get some position…
As always, your analysis is sound and very thoughtful. I personally can't get comfortable enough around the moat of this brand. I'm personally more interested in something like $CROX right now where it's an incredible entry valuation in a business that continues to grow. I also have more confidence in the Crocs brand than I do ATZ. Not to say this won't do well, it certainly could, but I can't get the comfort around the brand.
Nice take on ATZ. There was certainly a perfect storm of events that led to their stock price tanking. After seeing an interview with Brian Hill (former CEO and co-founder) during the downturn, my confidence was increased in the managements awareness on their own situation and their plan to come through it. I averaged down and have been rewarded . Still consider ATZ my portfolio spec play, as consumer discretionary is a fickle market (like you pointed out).
Incredible analysis here, definitely on the conservative side though. Managment is expecting more margin expansion, as well, they are adding locations in canada still.
Also, lets not forget their expansion through aquisitions as they bring in brands (like reigning champ) that not only expand their offerings, but expand their tarket audience. Currently a store almost strictly for women, what happens when they start growing their mens lines (reminds me of early Lulu).
This company has such a strong grasp on the pulse of the industry, and their history proves it. Great analysis still, hope you made the investment, as of writing shares are ocer $40.
(Dosclosure, ATZ makes up 25% of ny portfolio)
I like it’s numbers but I can’t wrap my head around Aritzia qualitatively. As In what’s their ‘secret sauce’? With retailers being so fickle usually, I can’t ascertain what makes them more than a fad. Maybe I’m just old and out of style though
It’s a proven brand that’s been around and popular for decades in Canada. Their super puff jackets sure were trendy for a bit, but the brand is far from a “fad” in my opinion. It’s not like their seeing booming results primarily as a result of trendiness, it’s more a result of expansion. I’m no fashion expert, but anecdotally, the girls in my life have always been into the brand. I don’t usually bet on a proven brand dying i a couple years. They’ve proven success in the states so far, think it’s more likely than not that it continues. At the rate management targets is the question…
The history of the brand has proven it isn't a trend, aritzia been growing since 1984...
That's exactly how I feel. I'm also not digging deep enough I'm sure, but something like $CROX at the current valuation makes a lot more sense to me.
Excellent, helpful analysis. Thanks.
I live behind an Aritzia store since last year and found a lot of young consumer and a lot of traffic compare store behind like a Tommy Hillfinger. And on the outlet i saw a lot of Aritzia purchased bag by these girl. That a reason who i believe of the success of Aritzia and allready get some position…
As always, your analysis is sound and very thoughtful.
I personally can't get comfortable enough around the moat of this brand. I'm personally more interested in something like $CROX right now where it's an incredible entry valuation in a business that continues to grow. I also have more confidence in the Crocs brand than I do ATZ. Not to say this won't do well, it certainly could, but I can't get the comfort around the brand.
Have you tested $CROX on Tickernomics? Would be interesting to see how these two compare