Football predictions using the binomial and Poisson distributions

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  • Опубликовано: 27 окт 2024

Комментарии • 9

  • @darryljf7215
    @darryljf7215 3 года назад

    Hi Professor
    I was trying out the the Definition 3.1 Binomial Distribution (n,p) parms and plugging in some values to see how it works and how I might be able to use it. I just don't understand what the parameters should be. Would it be possible to provide an example of how it can be used ?
    My maths ability is not as good as yours :)

    • @ActuariaParaTodos
      @ActuariaParaTodos  3 года назад +1

      Hi, Darryl! Thank you for your comment. The parameters of the binomial distribution should be n and p. The first is supposed to be the number of trials, while the second is the probability of success in each trial. For instance, if one wished to calculate the probability that there are three heads in a sequence of five tosses, we would use the binomial distribution with n=5, p=1/2, and substitute in the binomial mass to obtain 10/32. I hope you find this useful.

  • @fehmikonkur20
    @fehmikonkur20 2 года назад +1

    Merhabalar ben Türkiye den bahis oynamaya seven biriyim bu algoritma dosyasını nasıl ulaşabilirim saygılar

    • @ActuariaParaTodos
      @ActuariaParaTodos  2 года назад +1

      Hola! Here’s the paper with the corresponding pseudo codes: www.dropbox.com/s/sokkuvbv89s7egr/CaptainTsubasa.pdf?dl=0

    • @fehmikonkur20
      @fehmikonkur20 2 года назад

      @@ActuariaParaTodos teşekkür ederim

    • @fehmikonkur20
      @fehmikonkur20 2 года назад

      @@ActuariaParaTodos
      I said excel file but here is a pdf text file??

    • @fehmikonkur20
      @fehmikonkur20 2 года назад

      das Bild in der 11. Minute des Videos
      Ich kenne das Possionsmodell dort nicht, ich habe keine Excel- und Codekenntnisse Kann ich mir die Ergebnisse zeigen, nachdem ich die internen und externen Daten der Teams manuell eingegeben habe?

    • @ActuariaParaTodos
      @ActuariaParaTodos  2 года назад +1

      Here are the simulations for the Mexican league in season 2016: www.dropbox.com/s/dv0ofbzhdijwzq7/CLAUSURA2016.xlsm?dl=0