Experienced floatplane pilot here. Looks like a 90 degree gusty right crosswind from the beach with a parallel swell, a very challenging takeoff indeed. After a longer takeoff run than normal due to the unfavorable conditions he gets light on the floats and with full right aileron the left float comes out of the water. At 1:37 he makes his first attempt to "horse" it into the air as you see the left float out of the water and the nose pitches up. He comes back down onto both floats but he doesn't wait long enough before he "horses" it into the air a second time hoping to "hang on the prop" and keep from touching down again. Just like the first time though the airplane HAS to come back down onto the water as it is not ready to fly. His attempt to stay airborne this time is too much to ask of the wing and it stalls. This scenario is a typical floatplane accident that is caused by "trying too hard" to get airborne too early. Perhaps there was something out ahead of him (bigger swells, reef, boats) or he was understandably trying to alleviate stress on the floats in these rough conditions (the right float was taking a pounding). Condolences to the families.
I was wondering if you can fly in ground effect on a seaplane? Do big swells prevent that? Maybe he had to get it up flying for some reason as you mentioned, rocks, swells, etc. If he could have just kept the nose down a little more and gained speed!
@@JeffWiggins-o3d Wing in ground effect does work over water. In fact, some water/air craft have been designed to only work in ground effect and not in higher flight - lookup the Caspian Sea Monster for a notable example. Waves are a significant problem for ground effect, with bigger wings being able to tolerate larger waves while remaining in ground effect - a significant part of why the Soviets built them as big as the Sea Monster.
I'm local to the area. That afternoon there was a howling SSW'er and the prevailing swell is from the SW too. He took off from Thompson bay on the sheltered North East corner, tracking SE (only viable direction in those conditions). He got airborne between Philip Rock and the island, there's a sandbar there which may have been just below the waterline at his time of departure (maybe trying to clear it?). Either way past the sandbar almost certainly there would have been rougher water and a stronger crosswind as you go past the cover of the island. For someone who doesn't sound local to the area your analysis is pretty damn good, bravo!
The Caravan makes an ok seaplane for calm water ops. It is underpowered, and at his load, it requires lots of room. The main issue is the wing or lack of wing (stol/lift). After all, it was designed as FedEx feeder airplane. The airplane also has very little "airframe/aerodynamic" feedback at lower airspeeds/higher angle of attack. A light chop already feels like the roughest water take-off ever, open water and swells.....rattles your teeth. In rough water, a competent pilot uses swells/waves to get airborne. You have to leave the water, get rid of the drag. Sometimes, you even "bounce" the aircraft off a swell (if you have enough energy to get airborne). You have to level off and stay in a ground effect to accelerate. In my Twin Otter, you actually re configure flaps here, from 20 to 10. The conditions during this take off required a better seaplane (the Twin Otter is the ultimate open water seaplane). It also required very specialized skill set and experience......one that comes from thousands of water takeoffs. Take off like this is very "dynamic" environment, full of pitch inputs (both up and down or flat). You have to read and use the water coming your way. Lots of times you are also doing 90 deg crosswind take offs to parallel the swells. In these conditions, all these skill are the only thing that makes such takeoff safe or unsafe. All that is not understood by 98% of people involved with commercial seaplane operations. All he had to do was to level off after leaving the water and accelerate the airplane. Bit long, but from 11 000 hrs (2000 on the Caravan)/25 000 takeoff/landings, open water seaplane pilot. There is a very small number of pilots like me (not bragging, just happened like that). Industry, regulators and operators don't listen to our concerns/feedback. It makes open water seaplane ops much more difficult to setup and run. I have pics of me in shorts and flip flops sitting on the seaplane in "paradise". With that picture, comes a lot or responsibility.
@AlbertHess-xy7ky Nice, typically, modern attitude. Facts won't talk to you, but none. There are some collapsed floats, bent wing tips, and such. Zero deaths. All based on the over 30 years of seaplane flying in the Maldives. Currently, about 80 Twin Otters, doing 10 legs per day. You do the math. It's a pretty significant number of flights in the past 30 years. No one has stalled an airplane taking off 50 feet above the water.
Measly 300 hr pilot here but my thoughts watching the video were the same , I felt like he needed to level off as soon as he got airborne, accelerate in ground effect then climb.
I don’t fly, but I do have a strong understanding of wind and waves. I sensed your experience in your descriptions. No bravado or BS, just practical knowledge. Thank you.
So basically the pilot had found the three strikes - full load, rough weather and underpowered to flag this as a no go trip. Add overconfidence and you have a disaster.
My grandfather in St. Louis was an entrepreneur and pilot “early” in aviation. He founded several companies, including an aviation insurance business. Seeing the data accumulate, like Juan, he pushed pilots NOT to stack the deck against themselves. And as part of this he would ALWAYS remind pilots to NEVER EVER underestimate the power of weather and its effect on safety. He had just seen too many people die foolishly.
I fly a Seabee and when taking off from water, there is a strong incentive to get the hull out of the water ASAP, especially in rough seas: as soon as you're off the water, you and your plane stop getting beaten up by the waves and enjoy a surge of acceleration. But always lower the nose and accelerate to actual flying speed while in ground effect. Or risk being the subject of an accident investigation.
@@cheddar2648 No 'ground' effect over water for rotorcraft? Is there ground effect over ground for rotorcraft? I don't understand how water would not provide the same air compression as land. Can you help me out?
I'm a television cameraman of some 35+ years here in Perth Western Australia and have been to and from Rottnest numerous times on various aircraft (and some yachts). The winds that fire up without warning around Rotto (as we call it) are vicious. Even on a clear beautiful day. One moment it's glorious, the next minute it's howling. I even got picked up in a US Navy Chinook at Fremantle wharf in 1990 along with other TV and print media crews and was flown out approximately 2 kilometres the other side of Rotto (West of Perth/Rotto) to land on the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) aircraft carrier where we spent the day. It was a glorious day and smooth flying on the way out in the Chinook. Some 6 hours later upon the return to Perth in the Chinook, the day was still glorious, but just as we got past Rotto on the East side between Rotto and Perth/Fremantle the winds were vicious. Even the huge Chinook was getting tossed about. Something about Rottnest Island and its strange wind patterns and sudden intensity. This Cessna Caravan crash was a sad day for all onboard that aircraft and their loved ones left behind.
@@2009captainpaul Carl Vison that would of been the America Cup days, went out on one of the ferries to have a gander at that tug boat, she’s huge, are you the captain Oaul that used to do the reporting on radio back in tha day?
@@alanblyde8502 Hi mate. America's Cup was October 1986 to February 1987 prior to the 1990 visit of USS Carl Vinson carrier which came from a bunch of exercises in the North Arabian Sea, before coming to Fremantle/Perth for a six-day liberty port visit. And yes, she was/is a rather large lump. Even larger once you're on it as we were in the media for the day. 6 hours on it and thought we had seen a lot, which we did, but turns out we barely saw anything it's that big. The ship has its own TV station and shopping mall. Funny thing happened whilst interviewing various crew all the way up to the captain. One girl was waiting in the wings whilst we were interviewing someone else, at the change over they said to each other "who are you, how long have you been on the ship?". Turns out they had both been on the ship working for 5 years but had never met or bumped into each other. Yep, she's big alright 😃. No mate, i'm not THAT CaptainPaul. He got a nasty health diagnosis, left radio and some flying to have treatment. I believe he now lives in Denmark.
@ thanks yeh I remember being told the details as to the dates must of been one of my bludging days when I worked with the water authority (got away with a lot back then) and taking a sneaky peek at it
I suspect the rough water incentivized the pilot to horse it up early (it looks to me like he got one float up early, as is usually recommended to reduce water friction) but why he increased the AoA before it was ready to leave ground effect is confounding, especially considering his level of experience. You can fly literally forever in ground effect with seaplanes and there's just no reason to yank it up before it's ready.
Those seas likely created a rough ride, which could have been tossing the pilot around enough to pull back a little too hard on the stick, not to mention other unneeded flight control inputs along the way.
Juan, thanks for your covering this event. We have heard all sorts of comment from the press here and i was waiting for an informed review and only you can do it. Much appreciation to you. Seasons greetings from Melbourne.
Also an experienced 135/91 208 & K100 float driver here. First off the conditions were downright horrible (as you pointed out ) and maybe doable in an extreme circumstance but this wasn't it. Our water operations in the Bahamas would be curtailed in wind over 18 kts & with the gusts, our water operations would be cancelled completely.
Thank you Juan. It's impressive that you have gathered all the information accurately. I live in Perth and often fly a C172 to Rottnest Island. Thomson Bay is a very complicated environment. It is right next to the main settlement. It is busy with pleasure boats and ferries. There are several shallow obstacles marked by buoys, in addition to the large Philip Rock that is seen in the video. The wind is always strong in the afternoon. From memory it was about 170-200 degrees and 20 knots average that day. (Takeoff track looks like about 170 degrees. ) The boaties sometimes do stupid things like getting in the way of the ferry or driving over a "diver below" flag. In understanding why a pilot would rotate so early, we should also consider these factors.
Sure, rotate, but stay within a couple meters of the water until you have speed. I kond of hope there actually was some emergency like a boat blocking his path to explain why he tried for such a high AoA. Otherwise he just messed up.
Came here to say some of this as a local myself but you did a much better job than I would have. There’s been very rough winds here, especially on this day. Rottnest is tough with choppy water, but especially later in the afternoon with a gusty sea breeze. A very sad incident indeed.
Good vid thanks. The summer south wester in Perth is called the afternoon sea breeze because this time of year the morning winds are often a light to moderate offshore E/SE in the mornings and the SW 'Freo Doctor' arrives with a bang @ anything from 20 - 35 knots mid-morning to early afternoon and howls through for the rest of the day. Good chance the conditions were light to moderate E/SE upon arrival and the SW sea breeze arrived before they departed presumably some hours later. Sea 'breeze' is a misnomer as it's usually an unrelenting howling gale which is why the windsurfers and kite surfers love Perth. There's a company video on YT where they fly to Rotto in another float a/c but land on the islands runway, presumably because conditions weren't suitable for a water landing or were forecast to become so. Tragic either way.
What a shame! The crosswinds were too strong for a take off like this. RIP to the lost and prayers for the families of the people lost in this accident.
Seaplanes are no joke, the risk of capsizing is always present. Loved the time I spent flying them for a flight review but damn I was always nervous landing them.
*AUSTRALIAN PILOT HERE* - I did my flight training out of Jandakot and took several flights to Rottnest Island. I do not have any experience with float planes or where this plane was operating from but I can let you know what the basic challenges are with flying to Rottnest which are substantial. SORRY FOR THE LONG EXPLANATION And please don't let any of this ever put anyone off flying to places like Rottnest, because they are magical places to visit. First - Rottnest is an amazing place to visit. Its simply stunning all around with beautiful beaches amazing scuba diving, etc. It is one of the favorite places to visit not just for tourists but the local population of Perth. As such its also a favorite place for pilots to take friends and family too for a day trip or just to get lunch (and yes people do fly out there just for lunch, coffee and a swim). Second - Because the flight is over water (Rottnest is ~20km off the coast) as a student I had to be briefed on operations over water which includes carrying life vests and you have to know how to explain them to any future passengers you might take to Rottnest. *AS FAR AS I KNOW all of the flight schools take their students to Rottnest at some point just to learn how to deal with challenging airfields.* Even after my basic flight training and I was doing my CSU & Retracts in the Mooney M20 my instructor took me out there so he knew I could take the Mooney anywhere and be competent. *The main challenge at Rottnest are the winds.* Rottnest is very exposed (see google maps). The wind tends to be quite smooth above 500ft and a blender below 500ft. I was instructed to be ready to GO AROUND at even the slightest difficulty on approach because its very hard to recover the approach at Rottnest and there's been many landing accidents there. I can't stress just how abrupt the change in air flow is on approach. Maintaining a stable approach is a challenge and it *only gets worse closer to the ground.* I was told before my flight that most first time approaches end in a go around and many pilots require more than 2 goes to get used to what happens. My first approach ended in a go around. Everything was smooth as glass and then 1/2 way into final it was like flying into a storm. The first time its a shock but once you know what's coming you deal with it. The Runway is pure East/West (09/27) but 90% of the time the winds out of the South and usually at 180 (or direct cross wind). *No matter what the conditions at Jandakot are pilots must always assume it will be a crosswind at Rottnest.* The standard runway for BOTH landing and take off is 27 because directly in line with the runway is the Wadjemup Lighthouse 2.6km to the west of the 09 threshold (measured on Google maps). This makes an 09 approach very difficult and potentially dangerous. RWY 09 is also required to be from a RIGHT HAND CIRCUIT. *PLUS* the run way is almost at sea level and is *BELOW* the tops of the surrounding sand dunes directly to the south. The ERSA data puts the runway at 12feet AMSL. The #1 obstacle on the ERSA is the lighthouse which is says has a height of 282 ft and is 1.9NM (3.5km) FM ARP. That distance can be misleading because of the reference point. Using Google Earth the distance from the 09 Threshold is 1.46 NM (2.6km) and slightly to the LEFT of runway centre line. Close to the ground the real challenge is the turbulent air coming over the sand dunes to the South. Again once you know its coming and your ready it can be dealt with. Then there are the issues of the runway itself. First its narrow (very narrow compared to Jandakot) and you don't have to be far off centre line to have a wheel in the dirt. There's no taxiway so after landing you have to backtrack down the runway which means alerting all incoming pilots that you are on the runway and when you are clear of the runway. Finally (nothing quite gets you ready for it) the runway is NOT beautifully flat and it undulates along its entire length. UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS ROTTNEST IS A CHALLENGE. The cross winds are so consistent its a favored place to take students for crosswind practice. The flight school I did my aerobatics training at once had there chief instructor take ALL of the instructors out there for crosswind training & practice. So why go there for just a sight seeing trip. Because you can walk into the office on Monday morning and when people ask how your weekend was you can say "I flew to Rottnest for lunch, coffee and a swim!" Short of someone saying they had sex with a supermodel or broke a world record in something you have the best story Monday morning. I guess people who fly to places like Aspen or Catalina can say similar.
@tonywilson4713: As an American I am always impressed by the high level of professionalism, dedication to their craft, and by the technical proficiency demonstrated by pilots from your country and from New Zealand in spite of their small populations and relative isolation from much of the world. There are quite a few nations whose aviation/aerospace sectors could benefit from emulating your aviation culture.
Thanks for the description of the challenges there Tony, I checked it out on the map. When money can be made from flying people into beautiful places like this it takes a very safety conscious operator to shut things down when the winds reach a certain point.
Unfortunately this was predicted for over the past year. Swan River has been cited for numerous aviation and law infractions. Just recently one of their senior pilots was arrested for possession of cocaine. Although he was fired immediately, it was suspected that other crew and maintenence personnel in the company has joined him that night at the club. No further charges were made. This company has been skating on the edge of disaster for months, and it finally happened. Such a tragedy.
Rottnest is a beautiful place. I remember heading over on the ferry in the morning and all was calm. Coming back in the afternoon was a whole different story.
There are some videos about the island, about the quokkas (which inspired the name of the island although they aren’t rats) and the historic defensive artillery emplacements. Seems a fascinating place. I probably would have taken the boat…
Second time this registration has crashed! The original VH-WTY, also a Cessna Caravan on floats was written off in a crash on Hamilton Island in the Great Barrier Reef Queensland about 7 years ago (not a 100% positive on the exact details so happy to be corrected). The registration was cancelled then reused for this new aircraft. I would say there is a fair chance it will be retired for good after this.
I feel honoured but not honoured (for obvious reasons) that you’re doing a video that’s from Perth where I live. It was a very tragic event, it was very windy day that day too. So many news places here in Aus have been saying that it Phillips Rock (the name of the rock in the video) but I from the start after first watching the footage, could tell it was a stall and not many people believed me! I’m really sad that Perth will no longer have a seaplane as it was such a unique sight and one that I got to see and hear every Saturday during the cricket season as my cricket club is very close to the Swan River. I’m glad they eventually found the remaining 3 so the families had some closure and could lay their bodies to rest.
Thanks for the information you provided. There was a strong wind warning that day and 2mtr seas. Perfectly good runway on the island and even that runway is effectively difficult with wind gusts and crosswinds.
back in the 70's I built time doing air tours around Lake Geneva. Brand new 172's. Long runway. No flying in convective weather. We probably never made $$, but it was fun and the Hotel ( Lake Lawn) was privately Owned, before Ramada bought them, and the Owners felt it would be something nice for their guests. We had a perfect safety record. The only incidents were bug getting into the Pitot tube on takeoff....and watching the A/S go to zero on climb...explaining the instruments to the front seat passenger...Ha ( zero A/S indicator). Fun times.
Thanks for sorting the facts as far as you could Juan- I had told you incorrectly the pilot survived. You, Trevor, & Scott have probably saved many lives with your no bs telling it how it is! Btw, Hervey is pronounced the same as your 310
The two black boxes on the Jeju Air jet involved in South Korea's worst aviation disaster stopped recording about four minutes before the accident that killed 179 people, the transport ministry said.
Hey mate, I’ve been to Rottnest many times with my boat and was there only a couple days before. A big factor would have been that once you pass that island where it crashed you leave the sheltered smooth water of Thomsen bay. The prevailing southerly wind chop is sheltered until the moment you pass that island/rock due to the point to the south side. Have a look on the marine chart. I’d say that is why he tried to get off the water early but of course not why he didn’t gain enough speed
You have to be on your game flying into Rotto, there’s often strong Southerly’s. I’ve experienced a few wind shear events on the land runway 09/27 (which is similar orientation to the seaplane takeoff ~ 09). There’s a dune ridge to the south of the runway which disturbs airflow across the runway. Similarly, by the time the seaplane was adjacent to Phillip Rock he would have been out of the wind shadow of the Island and experienced higher x-wind. I notice as he initially got airborne the right wind dips as he tries to counter the increase in X-Wind as he clears the island wind shadow.
Thanks Juan, was hoping you'd have time to review this. Have had holidays over at Rottnest and it's a magical place. Been swimming around that area too, but lots of pleasure craft on the water so not always ideal other than in a craft. Typically, in that part of the world, there are off-shore winds in the afternoon. Something to do with the geography etc. Sometimes those winds are strong. Anyone who knows Perth (capital city of WA, Rottnest is a ferry ride away) knows that winds can make for turbulence in the mornings and later in the afternoon. (The 'Fremantle Doctor' is the name given to the afternoon winds that cool the city after a hot day). Have also flown in a number of Caravans, usually great aircraft. This one is puzzling.
I like the way Juan approaches and depicts new reports of air accidents. “ here’s what we know right NOW or SO FAR”. Unlike the main stream News Media who many times can’t tell the difference from a J3 and Airbus, would do a better service to their viewers to just watch video with the voice muted. I find his channel invites helpful and for the most part, professional commentary. One posted here in particular about avoiding air tours, could have hit home for me 30 years ago when my fiancé and friends took a Grand Canyon tour in a Tween Otter below rim height. A few days later that same tour operator slammed into the wall killing all. And how about that R44 tower crash. I think operators put too much emphasis on pleasing the customers over safety. I work at a hang glider operation as a tow pilot that offers Tandem Discovery instruction flights. On a good day we may operate two or three tugs conducting sometimes as many as 60 customers a day and if it starts to get turbulent, we send them packing with wind checks.
Was talking to a prospective pilot going to this company on a casual basis only two weeks ago asking him how rough water operations are handled at Rotto. His comment was the caravan handles it well.
The aircraft was fitted with oversized floats and was new to the company The winds at Rottnest are notoriously strong and he possibly had a slight downwind? Something that becomes evident once you get 20 to 50 AMSL and you are not sheltered by the island
@@Fomites I'm not a local but great whites have been seen there as they are seen all over the coast line. The swim starts at Cottelsoe Beach and 10 or 15 years ago a great white consumed a guy standing in the water in front of everyone in the coffee shop. About 2 or 3 years ago a similar thing happened at Little Bay on the east coast. The swim would be very noisy with all the boats etc and they haven't had anyone taken during a swim as far as I know. There is a 10 km North Bondi to Watson's Bay ocean swim that in principle can bring you into contact with white pointers (I saw a 4 m one when I was kayaking that route) but that hasn't had fatalities either. The shark behaviour experts would have knowledge about the effects of noise on theirt behaviour. I regularly swim out to the shark net at Bondi and have a squizz at what's there. That's probably mofe dangerous than a nosiy ocean swim!
@@Fomites Congratulations. Your genes may move to your heirs as a consequence of your highly developed survival skills. Please note that this doesn't come with a ribbon or medal of any type.
When Caravan Amphibians are getting into roughish water or are trying to get off glassy water in the shortest distance, the trick is to deploy 3rd Stage of Flap together with lifting one float out of the water to reduce drag to assist getting airborne faster. As soon as airborne get rid of the 3rd stage of Flap, don't go for Altitude at first (remember this is a seaplane off the water and there appear to be no obstacles in front of him to cause him to try and climb at such low airspeed.) but hold aircraft level and it will rapidly accelerate within seconds, getting rid of 3rd Stage, and then you can safely climb away. This aircraft appeared to be only lightly loaded so shouldn't have been an issue for the pilot. Unless other factors at play here?
Assuming it was a x-wind with the Fremantle Dr blowing. While he'd likely be clear of the rocks, he may have put himself in a lose/lose situation: The need to get airborne before getting out of the lee side of the 'natural jetty' and encountering the much, much bigger side-on waves.
Rottnest island is just off the Coast and is popular with tourists and a destination on the weekends with locals, there are small ferries that travel there from the heart of Perth near the CBD on the Swan river and travel down to Fremantle to enter the Indian Ocean to get there, I lived in Perth for a number years when a long haired young bloke back in the 70’s and used to go there often with my mates and girlfriends, we would hire bikes and scoot around the island, swimming and better things, but you had to look out for the Bloody snakes, they were all over the place and on the road and tracks and remember my friend got lunged at by one when he got off his bike! Just an aside “Rottnest” was named by the early explorers as the Island has unique wildlife and in particular a little mammal that looks like half a wallaby and half a rat and is called a “Quokka” but the early explorers thought they were a variety of a “Rat” and initially the place was named “Rats nest” hence Rottnest
And a 👍 to complimenting the ATSB on their "usual" thorough investigation and reporting! Australia should be proud of their agency, they do a fantastic job.
@@classact2575 an till i tell you tht they have nexst to no stuff in wa as most of the ATSB is bass on the est cost an if you go up to noth west aus there are no ATSB at all
Story time,1st plane ride 1972,sioux lookout on canada to a northern reserve ,was a 180 or 206 on floats,sat in the back rh seat with a lloyds book style 8 track player on my lap,took off on white caps,thought plane might be overwieght,the dash looked liked it was going shake to smitherines,he started porpusing to get the floats off the water,once we finally get airborne did not think we would get over a railway bridge only 4 hrs to go and a return trip,probly why l did not join my friends and get a pilots licence
I was on the island a week before and literally thought of Juan when i saw the seaplane tours!! I didn't think anything was a foot but what i was thinking is how banal and repetitive things would be. And how that might lead to complacency. I said to myself I'd stop having these thoughts when I saw the news 😢
Thank you for covering this. I read about it in the news here in Australia and I was hoping you would take a look at it. It will be interesting to see what CASA (our Civil Aviation Safety Authority) has to say about it once they've done their investigation.
Would a stall warning have sounded to inform the pilot? Years ago, I attempted to take off in a Piper Arrow with a heavier than normal load. The moment I rotated, I heard the stall horn which was my signal to immediately release backpressure.
@@mike73ngIt could depend on how many and where the stall warning sensors are. If there is only one on the right wing it may not sound if only the left wing stalls.
Thanks for covering this WA Oz crash. Juan when you look at the LA fire disaster again can you explain what's happened to the 747 Supertanker in the US. I've been told multiple things but I think your going to explain the facts.
As a Warbird ride/instruction operator at OKV for nearly 2 decades I had both Part 91 and 135 sightseeing requirements fulfilled. There are a lot of hoops to go through. I remember 100hr inspections, chute repacking, drug testing and paperwork, CFI renewal process, BFR's, etc. In my case I had firm weather/wind/viz/ceiling limitations that were often 2x FAA minimums, my focus being safety for my passenger/student and me.
You can see him lift the left wing which is a smooth water maneuver designed to break surface tension. In these conditions it would be unnecessary as the seas were rough. This suggests that he perceived the need to get off the water. Clearly he did so below flying speed. The more I see these, the more I am convinced that I won’t fly with anyone I don’t know well and certainly not if I am not in the front seat with controls available.
Juan, I agree with some of the other comments, if you look close, it appears the pilot pulled early to avoid a possible hit to the jet ski. This is just awful.
Thought of Blancolirio when watching an "American Made" with Tom Cruise movie clip about available space vs max weight. The cartel was not happy about the pilot's No Mas Kilos stand.
Was just talking to a friend a few hours ago, who was due to fly on this very late December. The company allegedly had a seaplane out of service and this one was due, but didn’t arrive in time for his flight, which was cancelled - with him returning to UK the next day so unable to reschedule. We’re both GA & glider pilots. Reached the same preliminary conclusion on the likely cause as you.
The ferry ride out to Rottnest is only about an hour and its a fun trip. I was there in October. I saw 208s frequently over the island. I just didn't understand why a person would choose flying there. Also, there is an airstrip on the island where the other Caravans mostly used.
Sort of by definition an 'air tour' is the very least important type of flying. Yet it's remarkable that they _still_ feel the need to fly in less than ideal conditions. Many people die as a result over the years. It doesn't have to be this way and doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
In this specific example, there's probably not much opportunity to cancel the flight and spend the night at Rottnest this time of year, school holidays mean the accommodation would have been booked out far in advance. I'd be surprised if enough spots couldn't have been found on the very regular ferries running back and forth, however.
Agreed. More education is needed for passengers of seaplanes, like a requirement for the operator to have a poster that says "if the weather looks like this, we shouldn't be flying, and you shouldn't get on the plane".
As the aircraft leaves the water you can see just ahead, what is possibly water breaking on the rocks just beneath the surface. The pilot likely saw this too and hence he knew he had to get it airborne too early. Airborne behind the power curve the crash was almost inevitable.
I have absolutely no knowledge of this accident, but a thought about air tour operations comes to my mind. Scenic flights normally take place where there's good scenery (duhh), which is in the country. The last five years have shown us that in many countries there's a marked difference in attitude towards regulation in the country and in the cities. This means that if aviation safety authorities actually want to improve the safety record of these operations, they're going to need ambassadors to get the message across: people who speak Country, who can say all this isn't just regulatory over-reach but is actually good for your businesses ("Remember that last crash? Do you want to have to deal with all that paperwork again?"), and can be believed when they say that.
Interesting, I ride float planes for work. Mostly Beavers. I enjoy it, mostly. Sometimes when the weather is a bit sketchy, not so much. When the weather is bad, I prefer take a bus. Clear weather good visibility. Wind direction and speed is hard to tell from video clip. Gusts up to 57 km/hr =30 knots. Sustained wind 20 to 25 knots? looks a lot less. Still a bit choppy. 20 to 25 knots can create a sea state up to 2 or 2.5m. Less if sheltered. Pretty choppy. Not sure if i would have happily sat in a float plane preparing to do a take off run into that kind of sea state. Float planes can be a bit "Bush pilot". Sometimes instead of trying to prove you can do it. the important skill is knowing when to say no. Apart from anything else scaring the punters, can't be good for business.
At 5:01 SMS is Safety Management System, not Safety Monitoring System. Would it have helped? Only if the limits had been defined and the pilots and management honored the limits.
@@hughreidable I saw one episode of that and it was *ridiculous*. They just blamed everything on speeding. The one that stuck out for me was an older driver crossed to the wrong side on a mild left hand bend and had a head on. They said he was driving dangerously and speeding, trying to overtake the car in front around a blind corner. The family said he was always cautious, and had a clean record. There was no attempt at braking before the crash and he was going the same speed as the car in front that they said he was trying to overtake. It was open and shut a medical issue with the driver. Zero doubt. They still concluded it was speeding and reckless driving.
In Holland we do this whenever there's a car crash with a fatality. They often come with suggestions to improve the infrastructure around the crash site, if that's a factor involved. Usually these suggestions tend to be implemented. I'm afraid that this does seem to require a different attitude to infrastructure than what's in Australia or the US.
You can horse it off in ground effect as in the soft field technique but you can’t climb away until you’ve achieved at least Vx. I don’t know about the 208 Caravan but all other single engine Cessnas publish their V speeds at Max Gross Weight. W&B or load shift may have been a factor idk. smh
It gets very windy in the summer and Tuesday was a bit gusty also the water was choppy terrible shame maybe pressure to get back to Perth I’ve flown to Rottnest in the summer the sea breeze makes it a bit tricky an also a windsurfer it’s a strong gusty breeze 😢
Posting off topic here for visibility KCAL covered a Palisades Fire aircraft that struck a drone damaging the wing, Reach41 has a thread where small drones are " unlikely to cause more than a scratch " and further stating that aircraft are required to be damage tolerant. He states that the drone operator needs to be prosecuted but uses aircraft build regulations to state that a drone strike is no big deal to airworthiness. Even, apparently , if a drone is ingested into a jet or turbine engine.
@@ianrobertson3419 I put it here in the hopes JB can address it in the likely upcoming vid on the strike. Got a better way to bring this to the attention of JB ?
100% concur Juan! It’s good that they’ve got this video, but a very obvious stall. (I wonder why he reefed it up like that- stay low in ground effect and build up speed first! Pilot error but still wonder why?)
I don't know about air tour operations, but if they don't have one, they need a documented weather policy. No flights if, among other things, wind speed exceeds x knots, visibility at take-off less than x miles, lightning or storm systems within x miles, _etc._ Basically a check list of things that will cancel a tour, and reduce the pressure on the pilot to make the tour happen. Also to show the, presumably disappointed passengers: "the wind today is x knots, it isn't safe for us to fly".
@@TyphoonVstrom OK, so in this case the air tour operator would be able to say "we were comfortable allowing our pilot to take off because the weather was within our documented weather policy".
Juan, even as a non-pilot I am aware there are many statistics that clearly show that incidence of fatal accidents compared to the number of flights made in commercial jet liners is miniscule. So much so that any accident receives massive media attention. Please note that I'm referring to the number of flights not the number of people/livestock transported. Are there any statistics that relate to fatalities in private light aircraft versus number of flights made and for the various licence types between the two extremes? Belated Happy New Year and thank you for your channel.
How do you suggest the industry "clean up its act" then? I guess new commercial pilots magically go from getting their licence to experienced airline captain? Or maybe all the experienced pilots should all quit their well paying jobs and come and work for peanuts flying air tours?
These types of jobs are usually used to build flight time around the world. Do you think a 6000 hour ATP rated pilot would take this job for what probably pays close to minimum wage in the industry?
@@pomerau like the OP of this ridiculous assertion - please stop with this hyperbolic nonsense. The public are not "fodder" for anything. Countless thousands of hours and miles are flown in these operations in complete safety.
Experienced floatplane pilot here. Looks like a 90 degree gusty right crosswind from the beach with a parallel swell, a very challenging takeoff indeed. After a longer takeoff run than normal due to the unfavorable conditions he gets light on the floats and with full right aileron the left float comes out of the water. At 1:37 he makes his first attempt to "horse" it into the air as you see the left float out of the water and the nose pitches up. He comes back down onto both floats but he doesn't wait long enough before he "horses" it into the air a second time hoping to "hang on the prop" and keep from touching down again. Just like the first time though the airplane HAS to come back down onto the water as it is not ready to fly. His attempt to stay airborne this time is too much to ask of the wing and it stalls. This scenario is a typical floatplane accident that is caused by "trying too hard" to get airborne too early. Perhaps there was something out ahead of him (bigger swells, reef, boats) or he was understandably trying to alleviate stress on the floats in these rough conditions (the right float was taking a pounding). Condolences to the families.
I was wondering if you can fly in ground effect on a seaplane? Do big swells prevent that? Maybe he had to get it up flying for some reason as you mentioned, rocks, swells, etc. If he could have just kept the nose down a little more and gained speed!
@@JeffWiggins-o3d Wing in ground effect does work over water. In fact, some water/air craft have been designed to only work in ground effect and not in higher flight - lookup the Caspian Sea Monster for a notable example. Waves are a significant problem for ground effect, with bigger wings being able to tolerate larger waves while remaining in ground effect - a significant part of why the Soviets built them as big as the Sea Monster.
I'm local to the area.
That afternoon there was a howling SSW'er and the prevailing swell is from the SW too. He took off from Thompson bay on the sheltered North East corner, tracking SE (only viable direction in those conditions). He got airborne between Philip Rock and the island, there's a sandbar there which may have been just below the waterline at his time of departure (maybe trying to clear it?). Either way past the sandbar almost certainly there would have been rougher water and a stronger crosswind as you go past the cover of the island.
For someone who doesn't sound local to the area your analysis is pretty damn good, bravo!
why do people bother flying in these conditions
Just play the video John
The Caravan makes an ok seaplane for calm water ops. It is underpowered, and at his load, it requires lots of room. The main issue is the wing or lack of wing (stol/lift). After all, it was designed as FedEx feeder airplane. The airplane also has very little "airframe/aerodynamic" feedback at lower airspeeds/higher angle of attack. A light chop already feels like the roughest water take-off ever, open water and swells.....rattles your teeth.
In rough water, a competent pilot uses swells/waves to get airborne. You have to leave the water, get rid of the drag. Sometimes, you even "bounce" the aircraft off a swell (if you have enough energy to get airborne). You have to level off and stay in a ground effect to accelerate. In my Twin Otter, you actually re configure flaps here, from 20 to 10.
The conditions during this take off required a better seaplane (the Twin Otter is the ultimate open water seaplane). It also required very specialized skill set and experience......one that comes from thousands of water takeoffs. Take off like this is very "dynamic" environment, full of pitch inputs (both up and down or flat). You have to read and use the water coming your way. Lots of times you are also doing 90 deg crosswind take offs to parallel the swells. In these conditions, all these skill are the only thing that makes such takeoff safe or unsafe. All that is not understood by 98% of people involved with commercial seaplane operations.
All he had to do was to level off after leaving the water and accelerate the airplane.
Bit long, but from 11 000 hrs (2000 on the Caravan)/25 000 takeoff/landings, open water seaplane pilot. There is a very small number of pilots like me (not bragging, just happened like that). Industry, regulators and operators don't listen to our concerns/feedback. It makes open water seaplane ops much more difficult to setup and run.
I have pics of me in shorts and flip flops sitting on the seaplane in "paradise". With that picture, comes a lot or responsibility.
How many better pilots than you have died flying?
@AlbertHess-xy7ky Nice, typically, modern attitude. Facts won't talk to you, but none. There are some collapsed floats, bent wing tips, and such. Zero deaths. All based on the over 30 years of seaplane flying in the Maldives. Currently, about 80 Twin Otters, doing 10 legs per day. You do the math. It's a pretty significant number of flights in the past 30 years. No one has stalled an airplane taking off 50 feet above the water.
Measly 300 hr pilot here but my thoughts watching the video were the same , I felt like he needed to level off as soon as he got airborne, accelerate in ground effect then climb.
I don’t fly, but I do have a strong understanding of wind and waves. I sensed your experience in your descriptions. No bravado or BS, just practical knowledge. Thank you.
So basically the pilot had found the three strikes - full load, rough weather and underpowered to flag this as a no go trip. Add overconfidence and you have a disaster.
5:19 that sigh again
When Juan sighs, you can just feel the frustration.
that's what i did too. :-(
Not to many people have it better than Juan... anyone knows one or two ?
😂 The pilot debrief does this Pant thing; it always makes me wonder where it originated.
He didn't pause, take his glasses off, and look directly at the camera. I think that might be worse than the sigh. 😟
My grandfather in St. Louis was an entrepreneur and pilot “early” in aviation. He founded several companies, including an aviation insurance business. Seeing the data accumulate, like Juan, he pushed pilots NOT to stack the deck against themselves. And as part of this he would ALWAYS remind pilots to NEVER EVER underestimate the power of weather and its effect on safety. He had just seen too many people die foolishly.
I’ve learned many things from Juan - but one of the biggest things is.. avoid air tours, it just does not seem worth it.
Don't take your family to dinner in a small plane and return the same day.
Amen. RUclips has great videos of all these locations!
The BOTTOM line for these Bottom Feeders is $$$$ Profit! Don't let anyone tell you otherwise!
That's not what he says.
These pilots are murderers. People need to stay off small aircraft. There's no argument. Enough.
I fly a Seabee and when taking off from water, there is a strong incentive to get the hull out of the water ASAP, especially in rough seas: as soon as you're off the water, you and your plane stop getting beaten up by the waves and enjoy a surge of acceleration. But always lower the nose and accelerate to actual flying speed while in ground effect. Or risk being the subject of an accident investigation.
Or risk getting a long sigh from Juan during his report on your accident!
Is there ground effect for fixed wing over water, because we were trained on the rotorcraft side that water offers near zero ground effect.
@@cheddar2648 No 'ground' effect over water for rotorcraft? Is there ground effect over ground for rotorcraft? I don't understand how water would not provide the same air compression as land. Can you help me out?
I'm a television cameraman of some 35+ years here in Perth Western Australia and have been to and from Rottnest numerous times on various aircraft (and some yachts). The winds that fire up without warning around Rotto (as we call it) are vicious. Even on a clear beautiful day. One moment it's glorious, the next minute it's howling. I even got picked up in a US Navy Chinook at Fremantle wharf in 1990 along with other TV and print media crews and was flown out approximately 2 kilometres the other side of Rotto (West of Perth/Rotto) to land on the USS Carl Vinson (CVN-70) aircraft carrier where we spent the day. It was a glorious day and smooth flying on the way out in the Chinook. Some 6 hours later upon the return to Perth in the Chinook, the day was still glorious, but just as we got past Rotto on the East side between Rotto and Perth/Fremantle the winds were vicious. Even the huge Chinook was getting tossed about. Something about Rottnest Island and its strange wind patterns and sudden intensity. This Cessna Caravan crash was a sad day for all onboard that aircraft and their loved ones left behind.
@@2009captainpaul Carl Vison that would of been the America Cup days, went out on one of the ferries to have a gander at that tug boat, she’s huge, are you the captain Oaul that used to do the reporting on radio back in tha day?
@@alanblyde8502 Hi mate. America's Cup was October 1986 to February 1987 prior to the 1990 visit of USS Carl Vinson carrier which came from a bunch of exercises in the North Arabian Sea, before coming to Fremantle/Perth for a six-day liberty port visit. And yes, she was/is a rather large lump. Even larger once you're on it as we were in the media for the day. 6 hours on it and thought we had seen a lot, which we did, but turns out we barely saw anything it's that big. The ship has its own TV station and shopping mall. Funny thing happened whilst interviewing various crew all the way up to the captain. One girl was waiting in the wings whilst we were interviewing someone else, at the change over they said to each other "who are you, how long have you been on the ship?". Turns out they had both been on the ship working for 5 years but had never met or bumped into each other. Yep, she's big alright 😃. No mate, i'm not THAT CaptainPaul. He got a nasty health diagnosis, left radio and some flying to have treatment. I believe he now lives in Denmark.
@ thanks yeh I remember being told the details as to the dates must of been one of my bludging days when I worked with the water authority (got away with a lot back then) and taking a sneaky peek at it
I suspect the rough water incentivized the pilot to horse it up early (it looks to me like he got one float up early, as is usually recommended to reduce water friction) but why he increased the AoA before it was ready to leave ground effect is confounding, especially considering his level of experience. You can fly literally forever in ground effect with seaplanes and there's just no reason to yank it up before it's ready.
That's what it looks like to me, too.
Isn’t getting one float up early only for glassy water takeoffs?
Those seas likely created a rough ride, which could have been tossing the pilot around enough to pull back a little too hard on the stick, not to mention other unneeded flight control inputs along the way.
@@jts_1092picking up one float also assists in getting airborne if you notice a sudden obstacle (ie-log) in your takeoff path ahead.
LACK of experience. He got to experience it once.
Juan. Excellent job on an event so far away from your headquarters. Far better than the local media coverage. Perth resident here.
Juan, thanks for your covering this event. We have heard all sorts of comment from the press here and i was waiting for an informed review and only you can do it. Much appreciation to you. Seasons greetings from Melbourne.
Also an experienced 135/91 208 & K100 float driver here. First off the conditions were downright horrible (as you pointed out ) and maybe doable in an extreme circumstance but this wasn't it.
Our water operations in the Bahamas would be curtailed in wind over 18 kts & with the gusts, our water operations would be cancelled completely.
Thank you Juan. It's impressive that you have gathered all the information accurately. I live in Perth and often fly a C172 to Rottnest Island. Thomson Bay is a very complicated environment. It is right next to the main settlement. It is busy with pleasure boats and ferries. There are several shallow obstacles marked by buoys, in addition to the large Philip Rock that is seen in the video. The wind is always strong in the afternoon. From memory it was about 170-200 degrees and 20 knots average that day. (Takeoff track looks like about 170 degrees. ) The boaties sometimes do stupid things like getting in the way of the ferry or driving over a "diver below" flag. In understanding why a pilot would rotate so early, we should also consider these factors.
Sure, rotate, but stay within a couple meters of the water until you have speed. I kond of hope there actually was some emergency like a boat blocking his path to explain why he tried for such a high AoA. Otherwise he just messed up.
The boaties! Sounds like an Ozzie expression!
Came here to say some of this as a local myself but you did a much better job than I would have. There’s been very rough winds here, especially on this day. Rottnest is tough with choppy water, but especially later in the afternoon with a gusty sea breeze. A very sad incident indeed.
@@grafhilgenhurst9717 that’s right mate 😂
Maybe even consider the fact this cowboy was an idiot.
Thanks!
Thanks Bazz!
Hervey Bay is pronounced Harvey bay. Love your work here in Australia
And Derby is Darby unless it’s the town in Western Australia which is Derby.
... and Fraser Island is not pronounced as if it were Frasier Island.
@ I was going to avoid that one because we should be calling it K’Gari
@@robmcd No we shouldn't.
@@kevinstow3694 ok Kim.
Grazie.
Incredibly helpful. Stefano, OHS Inspector.
Good vid thanks. The summer south wester in Perth is called the afternoon sea breeze because this time of year the morning winds are often a light to moderate offshore E/SE in the mornings and the SW 'Freo Doctor' arrives with a bang @ anything from 20 - 35 knots mid-morning to early afternoon and howls through for the rest of the day. Good chance the conditions were light to moderate E/SE upon arrival and the SW sea breeze arrived before they departed presumably some hours later. Sea 'breeze' is a misnomer as it's usually an unrelenting howling gale which is why the windsurfers and kite surfers love Perth. There's a company video on YT where they fly to Rotto in another float a/c but land on the islands runway, presumably because conditions weren't suitable for a water landing or were forecast to become so. Tragic either way.
Condolences to the families concerned,wishing the other passengers a swift recovery,thanks Juan safe flights,🙏🙏👋👍🇦🇺
What a shame! The crosswinds were too strong for a take off like this. RIP to the lost and prayers for the families of the people lost in this accident.
Seaplanes are no joke, the risk of capsizing is always present. Loved the time I spent flying them for a flight review but damn I was always nervous landing them.
*AUSTRALIAN PILOT HERE* - I did my flight training out of Jandakot and took several flights to Rottnest Island.
I do not have any experience with float planes or where this plane was operating from but I can let you know what the basic challenges are with flying to Rottnest which are substantial.
SORRY FOR THE LONG EXPLANATION
And please don't let any of this ever put anyone off flying to places like Rottnest, because they are magical places to visit.
First - Rottnest is an amazing place to visit. Its simply stunning all around with beautiful beaches amazing scuba diving, etc. It is one of the favorite places to visit not just for tourists but the local population of Perth. As such its also a favorite place for pilots to take friends and family too for a day trip or just to get lunch (and yes people do fly out there just for lunch, coffee and a swim).
Second - Because the flight is over water (Rottnest is ~20km off the coast) as a student I had to be briefed on operations over water which includes carrying life vests and you have to know how to explain them to any future passengers you might take to Rottnest. *AS FAR AS I KNOW all of the flight schools take their students to Rottnest at some point just to learn how to deal with challenging airfields.* Even after my basic flight training and I was doing my CSU & Retracts in the Mooney M20 my instructor took me out there so he knew I could take the Mooney anywhere and be competent.
*The main challenge at Rottnest are the winds.* Rottnest is very exposed (see google maps). The wind tends to be quite smooth above 500ft and a blender below 500ft. I was instructed to be ready to GO AROUND at even the slightest difficulty on approach because its very hard to recover the approach at Rottnest and there's been many landing accidents there. I can't
stress just how abrupt the change in air flow is on approach. Maintaining a stable approach is a challenge and it *only gets worse closer to the ground.*
I was told before my flight that most first time approaches end in a go around and many pilots require more than 2 goes to get used to what happens. My first approach ended in a go around. Everything was smooth as glass and then 1/2 way into final it was like flying into a storm. The first time its a shock but once you know what's coming you deal with it.
The Runway is pure East/West (09/27) but 90% of the time the winds out of the South and usually at 180 (or direct cross wind). *No matter what the conditions at Jandakot are pilots must always assume it will be a crosswind at Rottnest.*
The standard runway for BOTH landing and take off is 27 because directly in line with the runway is the Wadjemup Lighthouse 2.6km to the west of the 09 threshold (measured on Google maps). This makes an 09 approach very difficult and potentially dangerous. RWY 09 is also required to be from a RIGHT HAND CIRCUIT.
*PLUS* the run way is almost at sea level and is *BELOW* the tops of the surrounding sand dunes directly to the south. The ERSA data puts the runway at 12feet AMSL. The #1 obstacle on the ERSA is the lighthouse which is says has a height of 282 ft and is 1.9NM (3.5km) FM ARP. That distance can be misleading because of the reference point. Using Google Earth the distance from the 09 Threshold is 1.46 NM (2.6km) and slightly to the LEFT of runway centre line.
Close to the ground the real challenge is the turbulent air coming over the sand dunes to the South. Again once you know its coming and your ready it can be dealt with.
Then there are the issues of the runway itself. First its narrow (very narrow compared to Jandakot) and you don't have to be far off centre line to have a wheel in the dirt. There's no taxiway so after landing you have to backtrack down the runway which means alerting all incoming pilots that you are on the runway and when you are clear of the runway. Finally (nothing quite gets you ready for it) the runway is NOT beautifully flat and it undulates along its entire length.
UNDER IDEAL CONDITIONS ROTTNEST IS A CHALLENGE.
The cross winds are so consistent its a favored place to take students for crosswind practice. The flight school I did my aerobatics training at once had there chief instructor take ALL of the instructors out there for crosswind training & practice.
So why go there for just a sight seeing trip.
Because you can walk into the office on Monday morning and when people ask how your weekend was you can say "I flew to Rottnest for lunch, coffee and a swim!" Short of someone saying they had sex with a supermodel or broke a world record in something you have the best story Monday morning. I guess people who fly to places like Aspen or Catalina can say similar.
@tonywilson4713: As an American I am always impressed by the high level of professionalism, dedication to their craft, and by the technical proficiency demonstrated by pilots from your country and from New Zealand in spite of their small populations and relative isolation from much of the world. There are quite a few nations whose aviation/aerospace sectors could benefit from emulating your aviation culture.
Thanks for the description of the challenges there Tony, I checked it out on the map. When money can be made from flying people into beautiful places like this it takes a very safety conscious operator to shut things down when the winds reach a certain point.
Unfortunately this was predicted for over the past year. Swan River has been cited for numerous aviation and law infractions. Just recently one of their senior pilots was arrested for possession of cocaine. Although he was fired immediately, it was suspected that other crew and maintenence personnel in the company has joined him that night at the club. No further charges were made.
This company has been skating on the edge of disaster for months, and it finally happened. Such a tragedy.
Ooooo - ok Roger .
@@t.w.7731 holy moly
Sources?
Rottnest is a beautiful place. I remember heading over on the ferry in the morning and all was calm. Coming back in the afternoon was a whole different story.
There are some videos about the island, about the quokkas (which inspired the name of the island although they aren’t rats) and the historic defensive artillery emplacements. Seems a fascinating place. I probably would have taken the boat…
Second time this registration has crashed!
The original VH-WTY, also a Cessna Caravan on floats was written off in a crash on Hamilton Island in the Great Barrier Reef Queensland about 7 years ago (not a 100% positive on the exact details so happy to be corrected). The registration was cancelled then reused for this new aircraft.
I would say there is a fair chance it will be retired for good after this.
I feel honoured but not honoured (for obvious reasons) that you’re doing a video that’s from Perth where I live. It was a very tragic event, it was very windy day that day too. So many news places here in Aus have been saying that it Phillips Rock (the name of the rock in the video) but I from the start after first watching the footage, could tell it was a stall and not many people believed me! I’m really sad that Perth will no longer have a seaplane as it was such a unique sight and one that I got to see and hear every Saturday during the cricket season as my cricket club is very close to the Swan River. I’m glad they eventually found the remaining 3 so the families had some closure and could lay their bodies to rest.
Sorry to hear of the loss of life. Condolences to the families.
Thanks for the information you provided.
There was a strong wind warning that day and 2mtr seas.
Perfectly good runway on the island and even that runway is effectively difficult with wind gusts and crosswinds.
Thanks
Thank you excellent report
back in the 70's I built time doing air tours around Lake Geneva. Brand new 172's. Long runway. No flying in convective weather. We probably never made $$, but it was fun and the Hotel ( Lake Lawn) was privately Owned, before Ramada bought them, and the Owners felt it would be something nice for their guests. We had a perfect safety record. The only incidents were bug getting into the Pitot tube on takeoff....and watching the A/S go to zero on climb...explaining the instruments to the front seat passenger...Ha ( zero A/S indicator). Fun times.
I’d just explain that it’s simply a tailwind of the same strength!😂
Thanks for sorting the facts as far as you could Juan- I had told you incorrectly the pilot survived.
You, Trevor, & Scott have probably saved many lives with your no bs telling it how it is!
Btw, Hervey is pronounced the same as your 310
As a Perthite, I was hoping to see your insights on this. Thanks Juan.
The two black boxes on the Jeju Air jet involved in South Korea's worst aviation disaster stopped recording about four minutes before the accident that killed 179 people, the transport ministry said.
Hey mate, I’ve been to Rottnest many times with my boat and was there only a couple days before. A big factor would have been that once you pass that island where it crashed you leave the sheltered smooth water of Thomsen bay. The prevailing southerly wind chop is sheltered until the moment you pass that island/rock due to the point to the south side. Have a look on the marine chart. I’d say that is why he tried to get off the water early but of course not why he didn’t gain enough speed
You have to be on your game flying into Rotto, there’s often strong Southerly’s. I’ve experienced a few wind shear events on the land runway 09/27 (which is similar orientation to the seaplane takeoff ~ 09). There’s a dune ridge to the south of the runway which disturbs airflow across the runway.
Similarly, by the time the seaplane was adjacent to Phillip Rock he would have been out of the wind shadow of the Island and experienced higher x-wind. I notice as he initially got airborne the right wind dips as he tries to counter the increase in X-Wind as he clears the island wind shadow.
Condolences to the families and friends. Rip.Thank you for reporting.
Great video as always my good sir thank you for the knowledge and everything you do
Thanks Juan, was hoping you'd have time to review this. Have had holidays over at Rottnest and it's a magical place. Been swimming around that area too, but lots of pleasure craft on the water so not always ideal other than in a craft. Typically, in that part of the world, there are off-shore winds in the afternoon. Something to do with the geography etc. Sometimes those winds are strong. Anyone who knows Perth (capital city of WA, Rottnest is a ferry ride away) knows that winds can make for turbulence in the mornings and later in the afternoon. (The 'Fremantle Doctor' is the name given to the afternoon winds that cool the city after a hot day). Have also flown in a number of Caravans, usually great aircraft. This one is puzzling.
Extremely hot day 38°C
I like the way Juan approaches and depicts new reports of air accidents. “ here’s what we know right NOW or SO FAR”. Unlike the main stream News Media who many times can’t tell the difference from a J3 and Airbus, would do a better service to their viewers to just watch video with the voice muted. I find his channel invites helpful and for the most part, professional commentary. One posted here in particular about avoiding air tours, could have hit home for me 30 years ago when my fiancé and friends took a Grand Canyon tour in a Tween Otter below rim height. A few days later that same tour operator slammed into the wall killing all. And how about that R44 tower crash. I think operators put too much emphasis on pleasing the customers over safety. I work at a hang glider operation as a tow pilot that offers Tandem Discovery instruction flights. On a good day we may operate two or three tugs conducting sometimes as many as 60 customers a day and if it starts to get turbulent, we send them packing with wind checks.
Always a tragic loss, especially when it's so easily avoidable with something as simple as saying no or just waiting it out.
Rottnest Island is where the Aussie 18 sailing skiffs race on the west coast. Big winds with shifty conditions.
Was talking to a prospective pilot going to this company on a casual basis only two weeks ago asking him how rough water operations are handled at Rotto. His comment was the caravan handles it well.
The aircraft was fitted with oversized floats and was new to the company
The winds at Rottnest are notoriously strong and he possibly had a slight downwind? Something that becomes evident once you get 20 to 50 AMSL and you are not sheltered by the island
If the wave direction is different to the wind then it takes priority when taking off. Will make for a cross wind which was strong that day.
For non-Australians there is a 19.7 km ocean swim out to Rottnest Island - next one is 22 Feb 2025.
What's the great white shark factor/coefficient there? I would not do it.
@@Fomites I'm not a local but great whites have been seen there as they are seen all over the coast line. The swim starts at Cottelsoe Beach and 10 or 15 years ago a great white consumed a guy standing in the water in front of everyone in the coffee shop. About 2 or 3 years ago a similar thing happened at Little Bay on the east coast. The swim would be very noisy with all the boats etc and they haven't had anyone taken during a swim as far as I know. There is a 10 km North Bondi to Watson's Bay ocean swim that in principle can bring you into contact with white pointers (I saw a 4 m one when I was kayaking that route) but that hasn't had fatalities either. The shark behaviour experts would have knowledge about the effects of noise on theirt behaviour. I regularly swim out to the shark net at Bondi and have a squizz at what's there. That's probably mofe dangerous than a nosiy ocean swim!
@@Fomites Congratulations. Your genes may move to your heirs as a consequence of your highly developed survival skills. Please note that this doesn't come with a ribbon or medal of any type.
All ways swim with a friend, 50% chance of not getting attacked.
@@tonywild8103 Tell that to the bait ball - they may have a different perspective!
Greetings from Perth… big fan!
When Caravan Amphibians are getting into roughish water or are trying to get off glassy water in the shortest distance, the trick is to deploy 3rd Stage of Flap together with lifting one float out of the water to reduce drag to assist getting airborne faster. As soon as airborne get rid of the 3rd stage of Flap, don't go for Altitude at first (remember this is a seaplane off the water and there appear to be no obstacles in front of him to cause him to try and climb at such low airspeed.) but hold aircraft level and it will rapidly accelerate within seconds, getting rid of 3rd Stage, and then you can safely climb away. This aircraft appeared to be only lightly loaded so shouldn't have been an issue for the pilot. Unless other factors at play here?
Wouldn't the Caravan Amphibian operators handbook clearly say this ?
Assuming it was a x-wind with the Fremantle Dr blowing. While he'd likely be clear of the rocks, he may have put himself in a lose/lose situation: The need to get airborne before getting out of the lee side of the 'natural jetty' and encountering the much, much bigger side-on waves.
Rottnest island is just off the Coast and is popular with tourists and a destination on the weekends with locals, there are small ferries that travel there from the heart of Perth near the CBD on the Swan river and travel down to Fremantle to enter the Indian Ocean to get there, I lived in Perth for a number years when a long haired young bloke back in the 70’s and used to go there often with my mates and girlfriends, we would hire bikes and scoot around the island, swimming and better things, but you had to look out for the Bloody snakes, they were all over the place and on the road and tracks and remember my friend got lunged at by one when he got off his bike! Just an aside “Rottnest” was named by the early explorers as the Island has unique wildlife and in particular a little mammal that looks like half a wallaby and half a rat and is called a “Quokka” but the early explorers thought they were a variety of a “Rat” and initially the place was named “Rats nest” hence Rottnest
Thanks for covering something close to home. I only just found your channel, I'm surprised this happened, you don't hear about these things too often.
I’ve been waiting to see if Juan would review this accident as it in our neck of the woods 🇦🇺
And a 👍 to complimenting the ATSB on their "usual" thorough investigation and reporting! Australia should be proud of their agency, they do a fantastic job.
@@classact2575 an till i tell you tht they have nexst to no stuff in wa as most of the ATSB is bass on the est cost an if you go up to noth west aus there are no ATSB at all
So much better to hear from an experienced person than a news reporter's eye view.
Story time,1st plane ride 1972,sioux lookout on canada to a northern reserve ,was a 180 or 206 on floats,sat in the back rh seat with a lloyds book style 8 track player on my lap,took off on white caps,thought plane might be overwieght,the dash looked liked it was going shake to smitherines,he started porpusing to get the floats off the water,once we finally get airborne did not think we would get over a railway bridge only 4 hrs to go and a return trip,probly why l did not join my friends and get a pilots licence
Thank you Juan.
I was on the island a week before and literally thought of Juan when i saw the seaplane tours!! I didn't think anything was a foot but what i was thinking is how banal and repetitive things would be. And how that might lead to complacency. I said to myself I'd stop having these thoughts when I saw the news 😢
Blancolirio is the EF Hutton of modern times. in 2 hours this video has over 34K views.
‘There had been reports of vibrations, but he (Troy) had blown them off’. Uhm, didn’t we hear similar comments in the Triton submersible inquiry?
Juan, I would be happy to share the proactive safety steps from the company I fly for.
Thank you for covering this. I read about it in the news here in Australia and I was hoping you would take a look at it. It will be interesting to see what CASA (our Civil Aviation Safety Authority) has to say about it once they've done their investigation.
good vid Hoover. .look forward to the full report.
Would a stall warning have sounded to inform the pilot? Years ago, I attempted to take off in a Piper Arrow with a heavier than normal load. The moment I rotated, I heard the stall horn which was my signal to immediately release backpressure.
Not necessarily in the caravan.
@@rp4186how’s that possible? The stall warning should have been activated no matter what. What is it about the caravan that would have stopped it?
@@mike73ngIt could depend on how many and where the stall warning sensors are. If there is only one on the right wing it may not sound if only the left wing stalls.
On a recent flight in a Caravan I heard the stall warning horn from the back row while wearing a noise cancelling headset... it was loud.
Yep, stay away from air tours. An R44 air tour crashed last week in Galveston shortly after picking up to a hover. The pilot, by himself, walked away.
Good report sir. Thank you.
Thanks for covering this WA Oz crash. Juan when you look at the LA fire disaster again can you explain what's happened to the 747 Supertanker in the US. I've been told multiple things but I think your going to explain the facts.
Seen the press conference with the LA Fire chief, the LA Mayor and a gaggle of nodding heads? The answer lays there somewhere.
As a Warbird ride/instruction operator at OKV for nearly 2 decades I had both Part 91 and 135 sightseeing requirements fulfilled. There are a lot of hoops to go through. I remember 100hr inspections, chute repacking, drug testing and paperwork, CFI renewal process, BFR's, etc. In my case I had firm weather/wind/viz/ceiling limitations that were often 2x FAA minimums, my focus being safety for my passenger/student and me.
Anything new on Jeju? Pilots? ATC tapes? Black boxes?
Hi from Cottesloe across from Rotto island 🏝️
Brisk winds. Rough seas. Heavily loaded. Those are three holes in the “Swiss Cheese”. Three that we know of.
Heavily loaded?
@@seairpierre68387 pax with no baggage would most likely not be overloaded.
38°C
Just spitballin’ here. Those passengers were probably overweight. Maybe. Epidemic of stowaways too. Covering all bases.
@@localcrew alright, are you a bot? Stowaways on a caravan ? Ygtbfkm.
You can see him lift the left wing which is a smooth water maneuver designed to break surface tension. In these conditions it would be unnecessary as the seas were rough. This suggests that he perceived the need to get off the water. Clearly he did so below flying speed. The more I see these, the more I am convinced that I won’t fly with anyone I don’t know well and certainly not if I am not in the front seat with controls available.
Can feel your frustration in your voice. No need to criticize verbally.
Juan, I agree with some of the other comments, if you look close, it appears the pilot pulled early to avoid a possible hit to the jet ski. This is just awful.
The "Don't mess with weather" theme is timeless.
Thought of Blancolirio when watching an "American Made" with Tom Cruise movie clip about available space vs max weight. The cartel was not happy about the pilot's No Mas Kilos stand.
Thanks Juan.
Was just talking to a friend a few hours ago, who was due to fly on this very late December. The company allegedly had a seaplane out of service and this one was due, but didn’t arrive in time for his flight, which was cancelled - with him returning to UK the next day so unable to reschedule. We’re both GA & glider pilots. Reached the same preliminary conclusion on the likely cause as you.
Good report Juan. Sad.
It appears there was a boat maneuvering in the pathway of the airplane.
It's not uncommon for million dollar go fast boats to come through there at 50 knots to show off as they enter the bay (legally)
Swiss001 mentioned a few days ago the caravan is the aircraft with the most safety incidents of all aircraft...
The ferry ride out to Rottnest is only about an hour and its a fun trip.
I was there in October. I saw 208s frequently over the island. I just didn't understand why a person would choose flying there. Also, there is an airstrip on the island where the other Caravans mostly used.
Sort of by definition an 'air tour' is the very least important type of flying.
Yet it's remarkable that they _still_ feel the need to fly in less than ideal conditions. Many people die as a result over the years. It doesn't have to be this way and doesn't make any sense whatsoever.
In this specific example, there's probably not much opportunity to cancel the flight and spend the night at Rottnest this time of year, school holidays mean the accommodation would have been booked out far in advance. I'd be surprised if enough spots couldn't have been found on the very regular ferries running back and forth, however.
Agreed. More education is needed for passengers of seaplanes, like a requirement for the operator to have a poster that says "if the weather looks like this, we shouldn't be flying, and you shouldn't get on the plane".
"Gusty winds" just sounds like trouble for a plane that's barely at flying speed.
Found out about your channel on Pilot Debrief. Glad I did.
Im an Aussie so i was hoping you would cover this
I'm not a pilot, but even I could see the aircraft mushing out and struggling to fly.
A sad loss of life.
No one better... Juan, you are King.
As the aircraft leaves the water you can see just ahead, what is possibly water breaking on the rocks just beneath the surface. The pilot likely saw this too and hence he knew he had to get it airborne too early. Airborne behind the power curve the crash was almost inevitable.
I have absolutely no knowledge of this accident, but a thought about air tour operations comes to my mind. Scenic flights normally take place where there's good scenery (duhh), which is in the country. The last five years have shown us that in many countries there's a marked difference in attitude towards regulation in the country and in the cities. This means that if aviation safety authorities actually want to improve the safety record of these operations, they're going to need ambassadors to get the message across: people who speak Country, who can say all this isn't just regulatory over-reach but is actually good for your businesses ("Remember that last crash? Do you want to have to deal with all that paperwork again?"), and can be believed when they say that.
No need for a official report, that sigh at the end tells us all we need
Interesting, I ride float planes for work. Mostly Beavers. I enjoy it, mostly. Sometimes when the weather is a bit sketchy, not so much. When the weather is bad, I prefer take a bus.
Clear weather good visibility. Wind direction and speed is hard to tell from video clip. Gusts up to 57 km/hr =30 knots. Sustained wind 20 to 25 knots? looks a lot less. Still a bit choppy.
20 to 25 knots can create a sea state up to 2 or 2.5m. Less if sheltered. Pretty choppy. Not sure if i would have happily sat in a float plane preparing to do a take off run into that kind of sea state.
Float planes can be a bit "Bush pilot".
Sometimes instead of trying to prove you can do it. the important skill is knowing when to say no.
Apart from anything else scaring the punters, can't be good for business.
Can’t say for certain that he didn’t strike a rock or rotate early in an attempt to avoid an object.
At 5:01 SMS is Safety Management System, not Safety Monitoring System. Would it have helped? Only if the limits had been defined and the pilots and management honored the limits.
I wish we would investigate car accidents with even a fraction of the scrutiny given to aviation accidents.
There was a New Zealand TV show called Serious Crash Unit which used to do this for crashes involving deaths. It was a very interesting show.
At least we might stop with the ridiculous “speed kills” mentality in Australia
@@hughreidable I saw one episode of that and it was *ridiculous*. They just blamed everything on speeding.
The one that stuck out for me was an older driver crossed to the wrong side on a mild left hand bend and had a head on.
They said he was driving dangerously and speeding, trying to overtake the car in front around a blind corner.
The family said he was always cautious, and had a clean record.
There was no attempt at braking before the crash and he was going the same speed as the car in front that they said he was trying to overtake.
It was open and shut a medical issue with the driver. Zero doubt.
They still concluded it was speeding and reckless driving.
In Holland we do this whenever there's a car crash with a fatality. They often come with suggestions to improve the infrastructure around the crash site, if that's a factor involved. Usually these suggestions tend to be implemented.
I'm afraid that this does seem to require a different attitude to infrastructure than what's in Australia or the US.
You can horse it off in ground effect as in the soft field technique but you can’t climb away until you’ve achieved at least Vx. I don’t know about the 208 Caravan but all other single engine Cessnas publish their V speeds at Max Gross Weight. W&B or load shift may have been a factor idk. smh
It gets very windy in the summer and Tuesday was a bit gusty also the water was choppy terrible shame maybe pressure to get back to Perth I’ve flown to Rottnest in the summer the sea breeze makes it a bit tricky an also a windsurfer it’s a strong gusty breeze 😢
Posting off topic here for visibility
KCAL covered a Palisades Fire aircraft that struck a drone damaging the wing, Reach41 has a thread where small drones are " unlikely to cause more than a scratch " and further stating that aircraft are required to be damage tolerant. He states that the drone operator needs to be prosecuted but uses aircraft build regulations to state that a drone strike is no big deal to airworthiness. Even, apparently , if a drone is ingested into a jet or turbine engine.
Totally unnecessary off topic comment but it would obviously vary on drone size.
@@ianrobertson3419 I put it here in the hopes JB can address it in the likely upcoming vid on the strike. Got a better way to bring this to the attention of JB ?
God bless the souls lost. That take off was visually conditions for a serious professional, logged pilot. Oh dear
100% concur Juan! It’s good that they’ve got this video, but a very obvious stall.
(I wonder why he reefed it up like that- stay low in ground effect and build up speed first! Pilot error but still wonder why?)
I don't know about air tour operations, but if they don't have one, they need a documented weather policy. No flights if, among other things, wind speed exceeds x knots, visibility at take-off less than x miles, lightning or storm systems within x miles, _etc._ Basically a check list of things that will cancel a tour, and reduce the pressure on the pilot to make the tour happen. Also to show the, presumably disappointed passengers: "the wind today is x knots, it isn't safe for us to fly".
The conditions of this flight were normal "Fremantle doctor" afternon seabreeze conditions. To be expected every day in summer off Perth.
@@TyphoonVstrom OK, so in this case the air tour operator would be able to say "we were comfortable allowing our pilot to take off because the weather was within our documented weather policy".
Juan, even as a non-pilot I am aware there are many statistics that clearly show that incidence of fatal accidents compared to the number of flights made in commercial jet liners is miniscule. So much so that any accident receives massive media attention. Please note that I'm referring to the number of flights not the number of people/livestock transported.
Are there any statistics that relate to fatalities in private light aircraft versus number of flights made and for the various licence types between the two extremes?
Belated Happy New Year and thank you for your channel.
The gotta-go syndrome, against the windy and rainy weather, whether or not. The passengers gotta-go the boss says go the weather says no.
Exactly. Profits over safety.
I tell people to stay away from of air tour operations. Too many low time pilots, way too many accidents. The industry better clean up its act.
How do pilots get more hours? Where are they?
How do you suggest the industry "clean up its act" then? I guess new commercial pilots magically go from getting their licence to experienced airline captain? Or maybe all the experienced pilots should all quit their well paying jobs and come and work for peanuts flying air tours?
@@MrRem7600 Use the public as expendable fodder so a young pilot doesn't have to pay. Yeh that's not working.
These types of jobs are usually used to build flight time around the world. Do you think a 6000 hour ATP rated pilot would take this job for what probably pays close to minimum wage in the industry?
@@pomerau like the OP of this ridiculous assertion - please stop with this hyperbolic nonsense. The public are not "fodder" for anything. Countless thousands of hours and miles are flown in these operations in complete safety.