The thing you should still add to this for it to really make sense is the kind of leader player 4 picks. Because you know that conspire likely goes to p3 and because p2 goes for the foldspace line, you need something else to offer you the value you need in first round in order to make a decent shot at the game. What ends up happening is that p4 does not expect to get SM. Therefore they try to survive on mentat. Doing wealth mentat lines for high influence is already a p3/p4 strat, but because p3 tends to do conspire line, they put a meeple on stillsuits and limp in action one, which makes playing for combat as p4 worse because first combat automatically becomes more expensive for you, because you have to assume p3 might put in more on his second (for him free) action turn one. Therefore you're more likely to pick a leader that does well on wealth mentat plays. A lot of players who play that line, like to see it through the whole way by either going another wealth mentat on turn 2 or by getting some spice from combat or spice spot and going gene manipulation in order to thin the deck and draw into their expensive and hopefully very strong buy turn 1 (assuming that the card they bought is a strong reveal effect, which most of the more desirable cards actually are). They don't have the actions to block smuggling if they want to do that. Only one leader can block and still have access to mentat turn 2 (Ilban blocking with ring).
I can confidently say that i have not seen 1st player get Smuggling-Smuggling a single time this season. 2 or 3 always cut it off, the second Smuggle comes into play t4 at the earliest usually.
This has only been a recent thing, and is imo fully tied to people looking to find a solution for missing out on SM timing as player 3. I think Cheesable explained that very well. In non-tournament play, where the stakes are not as high, people tend to just accept the fact that they're not doing early SM as p3. But in a tournament, you have to play to win. High stakes, high reward play. I doubt p1 getting double smuggling will ever be a common thing, but in tournaments, it's not as strange of a thing to happen if you break down priority like Cheesable has done here.
I've long argued that Smuggling is the best yellow/blue/green space by a fair margin so people should pick it highly, including p1 taking it first action r1. (This is even more true with Immortality since you want to play Experimentations.) And I've also long argued that players should just smuggle down from the first step if it gives them swordmaster, instead of bumping up to the second level; for a long time, it seemed like no one did this. I found it constantly frustrating to see players gifted with the opportunity of r2 swordmaster pass it up. As far as the current meta as you describe it, something seems like it's being misevaluated: It being a strong space also makes it a good pick for other players r2/r3! Example: If p2 is going for double foldspace, and p3 is going for Conspire, p4 should probably take it in a lot of situations just because it's a good overall spot. Maybe they can get it r2/r3/r4, for example. It's not only a good spot for early solari; it's also just quite strong and efficient overall if you are willing to bump up to the second level. Also, both the double foldspace and great flat / conspire lines are contingent on certain hands (and sometimes on leaders), so they won't always happen. In many of those cases, Smuggling as p2 or p3 can be a good move, too. If what happened here is really that people decided that p1 should take smuggling to block p2, and then this causes p1's winrate to go up, that makes me think that people have just been systematically underrating Smuggling. Don't take it as a blocking play, take it because it's a good spot! And do that from any position, not just p1! (However, the real best move for p1 is Fremkit, because it means you're playing Uprising!)
Yes, smuggling has been undervalued for a long time, but also: Cheesable is adressing the weird phenomenon where player one gets to actually go for his second smuggling on turn 2. We can all agree that everybody has learned the value of smuggling by now, seeing as how it almost always gets blocked for player 2. The value of smuggling is not inherent however, but fully tied to the value of SM. Without SM, smuggling would only be a very slow way to get 2 troops, a bump and two spice over three rounds. I think Cheesable is overvaluing how often p1 actually gets to get smuggling back on round 2 and the impact of this on the increase of winrate of player one is likely marginal. I think most of the increase in winrate is due to player one more likely getting one of the very strong p1 leaders because of the new picking order. I do think his analysis of why p1 occasionally is allowed to take smuggling on round 2 is spot on.
Unfortunately it largely seems so. It's just such an insane value in itself, connect that with ANY good yellow cards (like Shifting Allegiances or even a trash card - and in itself it is the best target for Experimentation) and it becomes entirely broken. As much as I have my set of worries for Uprising, at least the opening meta may be more rigid - unless we'll just calculate that going hooks first is better than anything else... So, yeah, 2 expansion and it is still the same boring "trade spice" scenario as before, but now with more power creep. Oddly enough I've been playing a lot of the base game again due to digital version and I must way I find it way less annoying in comparison than the smuggle juggle meta. Atomics and grafting are the only things that expansions did to actually improve the core game for me. The rest were just sub-standard or rarely better then existing loops.
The thing you should still add to this for it to really make sense is the kind of leader player 4 picks. Because you know that conspire likely goes to p3 and because p2 goes for the foldspace line, you need something else to offer you the value you need in first round in order to make a decent shot at the game. What ends up happening is that p4 does not expect to get SM. Therefore they try to survive on mentat. Doing wealth mentat lines for high influence is already a p3/p4 strat, but because p3 tends to do conspire line, they put a meeple on stillsuits and limp in action one, which makes playing for combat as p4 worse because first combat automatically becomes more expensive for you, because you have to assume p3 might put in more on his second (for him free) action turn one. Therefore you're more likely to pick a leader that does well on wealth mentat plays.
A lot of players who play that line, like to see it through the whole way by either going another wealth mentat on turn 2 or by getting some spice from combat or spice spot and going gene manipulation in order to thin the deck and draw into their expensive and hopefully very strong buy turn 1 (assuming that the card they bought is a strong reveal effect, which most of the more desirable cards actually are). They don't have the actions to block smuggling if they want to do that. Only one leader can block and still have access to mentat turn 2 (Ilban blocking with ring).
I can confidently say that i have not seen 1st player get Smuggling-Smuggling a single time this season. 2 or 3 always cut it off, the second Smuggle comes into play t4 at the earliest usually.
This has only been a recent thing, and is imo fully tied to people looking to find a solution for missing out on SM timing as player 3. I think Cheesable explained that very well. In non-tournament play, where the stakes are not as high, people tend to just accept the fact that they're not doing early SM as p3. But in a tournament, you have to play to win. High stakes, high reward play. I doubt p1 getting double smuggling will ever be a common thing, but in tournaments, it's not as strange of a thing to happen if you break down priority like Cheesable has done here.
It kinda requires the players to be aware of the meta and react to that meta. Which only happens I think at a really high skill level table
I've long argued that Smuggling is the best yellow/blue/green space by a fair margin so people should pick it highly, including p1 taking it first action r1. (This is even more true with Immortality since you want to play Experimentations.) And I've also long argued that players should just smuggle down from the first step if it gives them swordmaster, instead of bumping up to the second level; for a long time, it seemed like no one did this. I found it constantly frustrating to see players gifted with the opportunity of r2 swordmaster pass it up.
As far as the current meta as you describe it, something seems like it's being misevaluated: It being a strong space also makes it a good pick for other players r2/r3! Example: If p2 is going for double foldspace, and p3 is going for Conspire, p4 should probably take it in a lot of situations just because it's a good overall spot. Maybe they can get it r2/r3/r4, for example. It's not only a good spot for early solari; it's also just quite strong and efficient overall if you are willing to bump up to the second level. Also, both the double foldspace and great flat / conspire lines are contingent on certain hands (and sometimes on leaders), so they won't always happen. In many of those cases, Smuggling as p2 or p3 can be a good move, too.
If what happened here is really that people decided that p1 should take smuggling to block p2, and then this causes p1's winrate to go up, that makes me think that people have just been systematically underrating Smuggling. Don't take it as a blocking play, take it because it's a good spot! And do that from any position, not just p1!
(However, the real best move for p1 is Fremkit, because it means you're playing Uprising!)
Yes, smuggling has been undervalued for a long time, but also: Cheesable is adressing the weird phenomenon where player one gets to actually go for his second smuggling on turn 2. We can all agree that everybody has learned the value of smuggling by now, seeing as how it almost always gets blocked for player 2. The value of smuggling is not inherent however, but fully tied to the value of SM. Without SM, smuggling would only be a very slow way to get 2 troops, a bump and two spice over three rounds. I think Cheesable is overvaluing how often p1 actually gets to get smuggling back on round 2 and the impact of this on the increase of winrate of player one is likely marginal. I think most of the increase in winrate is due to player one more likely getting one of the very strong p1 leaders because of the new picking order.
I do think his analysis of why p1 occasionally is allowed to take smuggling on round 2 is spot on.
Dude is all of the dune meta literally just warped around shipping even after immo?
Unfortunately it largely seems so. It's just such an insane value in itself, connect that with ANY good yellow cards (like Shifting Allegiances or even a trash card - and in itself it is the best target for Experimentation) and it becomes entirely broken. As much as I have my set of worries for Uprising, at least the opening meta may be more rigid - unless we'll just calculate that going hooks first is better than anything else...
So, yeah, 2 expansion and it is still the same boring "trade spice" scenario as before, but now with more power creep. Oddly enough I've been playing a lot of the base game again due to digital version and I must way I find it way less annoying in comparison than the smuggle juggle meta. Atomics and grafting are the only things that expansions did to actually improve the core game for me. The rest were just sub-standard or rarely better then existing loops.