Always went 3RBs & TE with first 4 picks until last season and went WR heavy, worst record I ever had n our home league, 6-8 made playoffs on points and lucked up and won because of my RBs and not my WRs! Going back to my old style of drafting this season.
Yes ! Breece and Henry is a deadly combo, I also like drafting 2 TE, kelce bowers, laporta and engram. And I don’t draft any te after that. The wr position is DEEP in the later rounds. I love the doubs wicks stack, Polk and Douglas, and Franklin and mims jr. But I also love going wr in the 1st and getting those rbz round 2-7.
Waddup Kyle Man you've been on 🔥 lately 🧙♂️ 🪄this one right here is next level information & it's greatly appreciated 💯‼️ Much appreciation Headliners for all you do 🦴🏈💯💪🏿‼️ #HEADLINERNATION
Great vid, I love the way this was broken down. Too many times I see vids that talk about total pts for the year and forget the importance of consistency.
Great video. I’m in a 3WR league so Hero RB has served me well. I’m considering taking a RB in round 4 this year (like a Joe Mixon) after taking one early. If I do go full hero RB, I like Jaylen Warren in rounds 7-8 as my RB2.
I love all the videos! So glad I stumbled upon this channel. The only quibble I have is something Kyle mentioned at the end which is why the list of top 24 WRs and RBs wasn't compiled using 2023's ADP. For the other risk videos in this series, it makes a lot of sense to look at the 2024 ADPs because the point was to help making draft decisions in 2024. Puka Nacua and De'Von Achane weren't in 2023's top 24, but they need to be included for this year's draft. And we're not planning on drafting Calvin Ridly, or Austin Ekler, or Dameon Pierce in early rounds, so we don't need to know how risky they were in the previous season to make decision in our 2024 draft. However, the point of this specific video was to prove or disprove the general strategy of early RBs or early WRs. For this, I want to know what the results were for last year's top 12 and 24 receivers and running backs. This is an arbitrary example, but would I have been better off drafting the #8 WR (15 overall) in 2023, or the #8 RB (16 overall)? In 2023, that is the choice between AJ Brown or Tony Pollard. Comparing this year's #8s (Kyren Williams and Garret Wilson) doesn't make sense to me in the experiment. That's just my two cents. But honestly, I'm not putting in the kind of work that Kyle and Headliner Nation are putting into each and every video so very happy to keep soaking up this content! Thanks guys!
I am going to be at the back end of the draft this season, pretty sure it will be 12, so I think I am going rb/rb unless someone ridiculous falls to me. My draft guide is in pocket (so to speak). Love the site, the Discord and the advice.
My issue with using arbitrary cut offs like top36, top 24 across different positions is this: there are soooo many more wrs than rbs meaning the likelihood of having a performance outside of wr36 any given week is infinitely higher than rb36. Simply draftjng a starting rb nearly guarantees u a top 24 finish. Teams start 2 wrs sometimes 3 compared to 1 starting rb. Week 17, nico had 12.2 1/2 ppr points and was wr26, zeek had 11 1/2 ppr points and was rb23. In this case, the lower production player makes it into your cutoff while the higher producing player doesnt.
Part of your response only verifies my points made. There are so many WRs that it makes the position more volatile on a weekly basis and finding WRs later in the draft will be easier than finding RBs later.
@@TheFantasyHeadliners how so? WRs out produce RBs hence why they are drafted more? Most teams in a standard setup are starting 3 wrs (1 in the flex) and 2rbs. Far more wrs will be fantasy relevant than rbs. I do agree this year that the emphasis on wr super early is starting to get out of hand. But in general it makes all the sense in the world that wrs will be drafted earlier and more often than rbs once you clear the top 10 rbs or so
I just pick the guys who will give me the most points. For me it’s not so much about how good the guy is I’m picking in a specific round. It’s how good is the guy I have to pick after him. For example if say a 7th round WR is no better than the 8th round WR you’ll get. But the 7th round RB is leagues better than the 8th round RB you’d get. It would make more sense to take the RB round 7. Another example is NBA. I know for a fact Luka is a fantasy beast. However I believe it’s much easier building a winning lineup by going PF or C first pick not PG. It always comes down to that late pick where you’re left with a solid PG and think to yourself man I wish I went Giannis instead of Luka. Even tho at the time you pick them it makes no sense to nitpick
Hey guys, I was wondering if you guys could do a video or maybe point me to the video if you guys have done it already, but I was wondering if you could do one based on team’s skill positions. Like delve into each team’s skill positions and how it could affect one another and their QB. Like for example I am having a hard time wanting to draft guys like Nick Collins or Keenan Allen because of how loaded those teams are at other positions. And how do these affect the QB? Would Mixon benefit or be hurt by this for example? And do we have previous examples of this with other teams. On the other side, how does a team with a lack of skill position players affect fantasy stock for players. Broncos and Panthers from 2023 came to mind. Should we smash or pass on these types of teams? Thank you! Apologies for the loaded question hahah
Can you maybe do a ranking based on Full PPR, 3 wide reciever, Jumbo Flex??? This is one of the first videos where 3 WR is acknowledged. I've heard other windbags mention Jumbo flex becoming more popular, but nobody covers this when mocking. I'm from DETROIT, so I appreciate your videos that much more beyond the concise analysis! 💪🦁🏈🏆🔥
It's hard! 2RB 3WR & Flex! In a 12 man think 17 max 18 RDS! Crazy !! I'm use to 10 men lge "PPR BONUS LGES" Didn't win a 10 man until Jumped in the 12 MaN lge!
@@brozyt80 A Jumbo flex is a roster spot where you can play any offensive player except kicker. Quarterback, Wide Reciever, Running Back, or Tight End. Since Quarterback is generally considered to have a high floor in fantasy, many teams carry extra . Places more emphasis on Quarterback but allows you wiggle room incase you draft heavy in one particular area.
Good video but do have a question, there are 32 teams, therefore 32 starting rb and 64 starting wr, based on touches wouldn’t it be more likely that top 24 rbs won’t fall outside the top 36 but top 24 wr may have a great chance because they are facing a greater pool for touches than rb. So we should be targeting top 12 wrs with consistency first then the rbs with high consistency next
Very informative video but I we have to take into consideration what the scores are of a wr 1 or 2 compared to a rb 1 or 2. To be honest I don’t know the answer so I’m curious to look into that.
Statistical Question: Since you are just evaluating the Games the Player played in an also concern the amount of games in your risk score you don't take the positions risk of injury into account. I think it's common knowledge that RBs have a higher ceiling in fantasy than WRs. But with RBs you have a way higher risk that your first round pick gets injured for a longer period of time. I haven't looked at the data and im just reacting spontaneously, but I could imagine if you somehow would include the individual risk of injury or position group average group of injury the statistic could swing. In Practice it's better to have a First round WR who is giving me a WR2 Performance over 14 weeks, than have a first round RB who I just can start for like 7 weeks since he got injured afterwards. So the availability of the player to my roster needs to be taken into account or the drop of who have to admit when u need to put the 3rd RB of your roster into ur active slot. But nice statistic and a good start. Cheers
Great stats Kyle! The O RB draft has not produced a championship for me in the 6 seasons. Been close once. Been doing FF since 96. Draft RB early= Championships.
Great Video. Can't believe that some creators are that desperate. 2 things learned: first draft in the first 2 Rounds only safe WRs like Ra or later someone like Evans. Between them only RBs if possible
I absolutely love having all my rb's in the front 8 rounds. So many receivers dont get love later in the draft that'll still play top 12-24 quite regularly.
The biggest lie in fantasy football is to believe that if you’re not a Headliner you’ve got an edge. Kyle must be a Pimp because his game is strong. Once again his data points have enlightened and educated the masses on a common topic of discussion. I get petrified if my RB room is weak. My worst teams all had one thing in common and that’s poor RB performances. Not saying WRs don’t matter. Thanks again buddy and KEEP BANGING NATION 💪🏾💪🏾💪🏾💪🏾
I'm not saying it's best to draft WRs early, I'm just saying it has consistently won me championships. Last year I took Lamb in the 1st and ARSB in the 2nd. Took guys like Mixon, R White, and J Cook in the mid rounds to fill RB. Probably going to take a similar approach this year.
Love the content but I think last years too 24 finishers is important. For example drake London skews this heavily. But his situation is different. Comparing that to last year is def helpful data
You don't take atleast 2 RBs in the first 10 picks you will lose your fanasty league Reason maybe only 10-15 top Rbs there are like 30 or 40 good Wrs .
I've always gone RB early because they're just more WR options later that can put up solid points. But RB is usually more consistent. This year I have noticed you can grab a stud WR and then still get a stud RB in round 2 before there's a big drop off at the position. Then there are many RBs late that can blow the roof off of their ADP
Bust rates for early round WRs are much lower compared to early RB. I wouldn't draft early RBs if they arent capable of putting up at least 18 PPR points per game. I rather go WR-WR if I cant get CMC, Bijan or Breece.
Last year I drafted RB early (Bijan, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker) and got WRs later (ARSB and C. Kirk). I had one of the safest floors in the league which led me to the playoffs. Unfortunately I lost by less than one point because Bijan wasn’t allowed to touch the ball, but that was just bad luck. Having a strong RB foundation helped me have the best lineup all year.
In the first round its whatever is the best available and then the opposite of my first pick in the second. Followed by RB in the third unless a stud falls. Then basically best value from there.
If the player in question is missing games due to injury or suspension, you do not have that baked into the risk assessment. Other than that, you guys are doing a great job.
That's because we aren't trying to determine how risky they are based on health. We are trying to determine how risky they are based on the range of outcomes for their performance. Hope that clarifies, thanks!
This may be pure speculation, but it felt like there were a huge amount of QB injuries last year that could've affected the top WR numbers. Great video!
Not to be contrarian, but this data TO ME seems like it supports wr heavy draft. If you hit early or WR you still have a good chance to get a decent RB later. But if you draft Rb early you might smash at that position, but you have a much less likely chance to get a good WR. I usually go wr first 3 rounds then get my RB’s.
It's okay to be contrarian! If you see the data a different way, absolutely try to dissect it in that manner. Personally, I feel the data follows the points I made in the video.
I see this the exact same way. If the rb position has less variance then the need to emphasize the position is lower than grabbing a stud at a position deemed more random. Also factoring in how being a top 12 rb hardly requires the amount of ppg as a top 12 receiver in today’s full ppr leagues.
Yes good fact, I've always drafted a RB first then depending on whose available, I'll go with that... watching the channel I have won 2 chips outta last three years...
I see all the ways you can draft!! I march to MY own beat!! I don't let podcasters influence me or my decisions!! I have been doing well without them for 21 years!! Actions speak louder than words or opinions!! Watch football to get your answers!! Don't let data be your only source of information!! Yes, you can reduce or minimize the risk of a player, but that is all you can do!! March to your own beat!! Lastly, ...... HAVE FUN!!Once again, thanks Kyle!! Great video!!
My question with this in a PPR league isn’t it harder to be in the top 12 at the Wr position? Ok for example you said only 1 Wr scored in the top 12 Wr 9 times but look at Wr scoring and where would those wrs finished if put inside the Rb top 12? So if the Rb top 12 it’s let’s say 16ppg but the Wr top 12 is 19ppg doesn’t it stand to reason that it’s harder to make top 12? So a wr could avg 18ppr not make top 12Wr but he would still be more valuable than the 10-12 Rb
I may be misunderstanding the question, so my apologies if this answer is not correct. But if we are just looking at the scoring for WRs, among the other WRs, then everyone's scores would just end up bumping up. Now, some WRs may be affected if they get a ton of volume but not a ton of TDs and their score could move them above others, but the difference from half to full isn't that big of a jump.
yea I was kinda lucky. But predicting fantasy is kinda lucky lol My running backs were Dobbins, Cooks, and Herbert . I made some waiver wire pick ups like Gus and Elliot.
Don't tell people this! I have been drafting 2 RB's first and I won 3 leagues last year. I love when people go no RB's cause I can get them! I had McCaffrey and Hall in one of my leagues. Was a great year!
The worst part about the videos from HLN is having to pause them to flush the toilet so I don't miss anything....That and when your feet fall asleep....This video has made it clear to me that I want to get one of the top 3 RBs this year...Now to point my league mates at worse FF content to go get worse information from cuz with this continual Headliner content, I will definitely have a leg up on the competition as long as they dont find it. #PetitionToStopThePublicVideos is still in effect. Also, expect my next check to arrive today.
What I want to know is what is the average rb 1 numbers per week compared to wr1 numbers. Just because you say this many rbs were top 12 each wk compared to this many wr1 each wk doesn't mean anything because the top 12 rbs could have averaged 20 pts but the top was could have averaged 28. How many rbs scored 35 to almost 50 or more pts in a week like you see a lot of wrs do? So making the top 12 wr each wk seems a lot harder than making the top 12 rbs. I mean guys like Tyreek,lamb, Jefferson,puka,aj, Chase, Amon, all had multiple monster weeks. Besides CMC, kyreen at the end, breece at the end, mostert because of a trillion TDS last year. How many blew up for 35 plus pts multiple games? In other words, it's harder to be top 12 wr compared to top 12 rbs on a weekly basis because the top wr are exploding for fittie. And there seems to be more wrs doing that every wk
This data dosent show that guys like garret wilson and drake London who are in completely different situations this yr you can’t compare adp to previous yrs data drake London was wr 36 last yr but now he’s a top 24 adp u gave to factor that same thing w Wilson he was wr 30 w out Rodgers that has to be a factor
I think what this is not considering is in PPR leagues how many more points WR score than RBs. The RB might finish in the top 12 more but a WR that finished outside the top 12 could still easily outscore than RB on that week. League is getting more pass heavy so there are more fantasy points going to WR instead of running backs.
You can't say that directly. You have to look at your scoring system to see whether running backs out score wide receivers significantly at enough spots in your starting lineups as determined by your league. Yes, in general, the mid-round wide receivers are way better than the mid-round running backs, but if you have to have a certain amount of running backs out there, it means that running backs are at a premium and you need to get them before wide receivers. It also matters if wide receivers are not getting points per reception, because upper end running backs are going to score rushing touchdowns and that gives them a better chance to score touchdowns. In best ball formats and touchdown heavy leagues, it still makes sense to target some running backs that might score touchdowns later in the draft. And that's independent advice from what your league is doing, so make sure you click on 'fantasy points scored 2023' in your league and break down where the scoring is happening in your league.
My point to the video, is that the pass heavy nature of the league is actually making the WR position more violate. They are not as safe as the running backs who get touches.
Who’s on the toilet for 30 seconds?? Studies show most guys get caught up in a video and when they get up from the toilet at least one leg will be asleep.
Waddup Kyle Man you've been on 🔥 lately 🧙♂️ 🪄this one right here is next level information & it's greatly appreciated 💯‼️ Much appreciation Headliners for all you do 🦴🏈💯💪🏿‼️ #HEADLINERNATION
Doesn’t matter how many resources I throw at it during the draft or waiver wire, I never manage to have two good RBs due to busts or injuries. Receivers are easy to scoop up a month into the season. Last season I got Nico Collins with a modest claim but my RB2 for the year ended up being Jaylen Warren
Imagine leaving this comment to people that have built an entire business around Fantasy Football 🤣 LoL 🤣 - Some rando with a fake name and picture out there desperate for attention
Hey, this is Kyle, from the video. Sorry to see you had such a negative reaction to the video. It’s okay that we disagree though. We’ve been doing this for several years and if people were not successful with our advice, they wouldn’t keep coming back, so we are confident in our process. But that’s why we use statistical evidence and supporting information in our videos, so it’s not just a bunch of opinions. Of this is the first time you’ve seen one of our videos, I encourage you to check out more. Hope you find a different video to be more helpful!
I like drafting 2 RB'S in the first 3 picks
Same!
Always went 3RBs & TE with first 4 picks until last season and went WR heavy, worst record I ever had n our home league, 6-8 made playoffs on points and lucked up and won because of my RBs and not my WRs! Going back to my old style of drafting this season.
Yes ! Breece and Henry is a deadly combo, I also like drafting 2 TE, kelce bowers, laporta and engram. And I don’t draft any te after that. The wr position is DEEP in the later rounds. I love the doubs wicks stack, Polk and Douglas, and Franklin and mims jr. But I also love going wr in the 1st and getting those rbz round 2-7.
Same!
Waddup Kyle Man you've been on 🔥 lately 🧙♂️ 🪄this one right here is next level information & it's greatly appreciated 💯‼️ Much appreciation Headliners for all you do 🦴🏈💯💪🏿‼️
#HEADLINERNATION
Any season where I finished at the bottom of my league, it was because my RBa were injured or busted. I always go heavy RB.
That seems to be the case for most people.
Great video Kyle! Always killing it! 💪
Great vid, I love the way this was broken down. Too many times I see vids that talk about total pts for the year and forget the importance of consistency.
Glad it was helpful!
Good stuff Kyle. Love the Headliners for analysis.
Good work Kyle! Thank you and keep em coming 💪🏻
How did he know I was pooping
Fr 👀
We're watching......always watching!
Deuces✌😂🤣😂
Same here! Lol
I went Lamb, AmonRa, Dj Moore, Stroud/Fields, Ferguson, BRob & Javonte/Warren and went undefeated lol. 3 out of first 4 picks were WR
Damn! Nice drafting dude! 🤘🏻
Great video. I’m in a 3WR league so Hero RB has served me well. I’m considering taking a RB in round 4 this year (like a Joe Mixon) after taking one early. If I do go full hero RB, I like Jaylen Warren in rounds 7-8 as my RB2.
I love all the videos! So glad I stumbled upon this channel.
The only quibble I have is something Kyle mentioned at the end which is why the list of top 24 WRs and RBs wasn't compiled using 2023's ADP. For the other risk videos in this series, it makes a lot of sense to look at the 2024 ADPs because the point was to help making draft decisions in 2024. Puka Nacua and De'Von Achane weren't in 2023's top 24, but they need to be included for this year's draft. And we're not planning on drafting Calvin Ridly, or Austin Ekler, or Dameon Pierce in early rounds, so we don't need to know how risky they were in the previous season to make decision in our 2024 draft.
However, the point of this specific video was to prove or disprove the general strategy of early RBs or early WRs. For this, I want to know what the results were for last year's top 12 and 24 receivers and running backs. This is an arbitrary example, but would I have been better off drafting the #8 WR (15 overall) in 2023, or the #8 RB (16 overall)? In 2023, that is the choice between AJ Brown or Tony Pollard. Comparing this year's #8s (Kyren Williams and Garret Wilson) doesn't make sense to me in the experiment.
That's just my two cents. But honestly, I'm not putting in the kind of work that Kyle and Headliner Nation are putting into each and every video so very happy to keep soaking up this content! Thanks guys!
Great video Kyle. Amazing breakdown!
I am going to be at the back end of the draft this season, pretty sure it will be 12, so I think I am going rb/rb unless someone ridiculous falls to me. My draft guide is in pocket (so to speak). Love the site, the Discord and the advice.
My issue with using arbitrary cut offs like top36, top 24 across different positions is this: there are soooo many more wrs than rbs meaning the likelihood of having a performance outside of wr36 any given week is infinitely higher than rb36. Simply draftjng a starting rb nearly guarantees u a top 24 finish. Teams start 2 wrs sometimes 3 compared to 1 starting rb. Week 17, nico had 12.2 1/2 ppr points and was wr26, zeek had 11 1/2 ppr points and was rb23. In this case, the lower production player makes it into your cutoff while the higher producing player doesnt.
Part of your response only verifies my points made. There are so many WRs that it makes the position more volatile on a weekly basis and finding WRs later in the draft will be easier than finding RBs later.
@@TheFantasyHeadliners how so? WRs out produce RBs hence why they are drafted more? Most teams in a standard setup are starting 3 wrs (1 in the flex) and 2rbs. Far more wrs will be fantasy relevant than rbs. I do agree this year that the emphasis on wr super early is starting to get out of hand. But in general it makes all the sense in the world that wrs will be drafted earlier and more often than rbs once you clear the top 10 rbs or so
I just pick the guys who will give me the most points. For me it’s not so much about how good the guy is I’m picking in a specific round. It’s how good is the guy I have to pick after him.
For example if say a 7th round WR is no better than the 8th round WR you’ll get. But the 7th round RB is leagues better than the 8th round RB you’d get. It would make more sense to take the RB round 7.
Another example is NBA. I know for a fact Luka is a fantasy beast. However I believe it’s much easier building a winning lineup by going PF or C first pick not PG.
It always comes down to that late pick where you’re left with a solid PG and think to yourself man I wish I went Giannis instead of Luka. Even tho at the time you pick them it makes no sense to nitpick
RBs are becoming like tight end , only a few truly elite ones then a bunch of mid. I think. Who knows
Format is important. Does your opinion change if it's a 3WR/1FLEX full ppr league?
That and where you pick (12 team league) in the 1st round also matters in my opinion.
@@Rick_Smoothpick spot is most important. It changes throughout the off season but I notice some pick spots are dead money.
I love the facts. Thanks guys. Best in the Business!
Hey guys, I was wondering if you guys could do a video or maybe point me to the video if you guys have done it already, but I was wondering if you could do one based on team’s skill positions. Like delve into each team’s skill positions and how it could affect one another and their QB. Like for example I am having a hard time wanting to draft guys like Nick Collins or Keenan Allen because of how loaded those teams are at other positions. And how do these affect the QB? Would Mixon benefit or be hurt by this for example? And do we have previous examples of this with other teams. On the other side, how does a team with a lack of skill position players affect fantasy stock for players. Broncos and Panthers from 2023 came to mind. Should we smash or pass on these types of teams? Thank you! Apologies for the loaded question hahah
Can you maybe do a ranking based on Full PPR, 3 wide reciever, Jumbo Flex???
This is one of the first videos where 3 WR is acknowledged.
I've heard other windbags mention Jumbo flex becoming more popular, but nobody covers this when mocking.
I'm from DETROIT, so I appreciate your videos that much more beyond the concise analysis! 💪🦁🏈🏆🔥
What is Jumbo flex please.
It's hard!
2RB 3WR & Flex!
In a 12 man think 17 max 18 RDS!
Crazy !!
I'm use to 10 men lge "PPR BONUS LGES"
Didn't win a 10 man until Jumped in the 12 MaN lge!
@@brozyt80 A Jumbo flex is a roster spot where you can play any offensive player except kicker. Quarterback, Wide Reciever, Running Back, or Tight End.
Since Quarterback is generally considered to have a high floor in fantasy, many teams carry extra .
Places more emphasis on Quarterback but allows you wiggle room incase you draft heavy in one particular area.
@@freddykripper7385 thanks. I see now sorta like Super Flex with a twist
Kyle, been loving these videos! I’ll be hittin ya up in the Discord to chat more about it.
Good video but do have a question, there are 32 teams, therefore 32 starting rb and 64 starting wr, based on touches wouldn’t it be more likely that top 24 rbs won’t fall outside the top 36 but top 24 wr may have a great chance because they are facing a greater pool for touches than rb. So we should be targeting top 12 wrs with consistency first then the rbs with high consistency next
Great content from The Headliners
Thanks!
8:12 It totally makes sense that WR would finish outside top 36 way more often. They're reliant on the qb throwing to them for points.
Very informative video but I we have to take into consideration what the scores are of a wr 1 or 2 compared to a rb 1 or 2. To be honest I don’t know the answer so I’m curious to look into that.
Statistical Question:
Since you are just evaluating the Games the Player played in an also concern the amount of games in your risk score you don't take the positions risk of injury into account.
I think it's common knowledge that RBs have a higher ceiling in fantasy than WRs. But with RBs you have a way higher risk that your first round pick gets injured for a longer period of time. I haven't looked at the data and im just reacting spontaneously, but I could imagine if you somehow would include the individual risk of injury or position group average group of injury the statistic could swing.
In Practice it's better to have a First round WR who is giving me a WR2 Performance over 14 weeks, than have a first round RB who I just can start for like 7 weeks since he got injured afterwards. So the availability of the player to my roster needs to be taken into account or the drop of who have to admit when u need to put the 3rd RB of your roster into ur active slot.
But nice statistic and a good start.
Cheers
Can I draft guide in Australia??
How do you approach a draft where most people in the league have the same mindset as you? Like RB heavy in the first 1-3 rounds
Great stats Kyle! The O RB draft has not produced a championship for me in the 6 seasons. Been close once. Been doing FF since 96. Draft RB early= Championships.
Great Video. Can't believe that some creators are that desperate. 2 things learned: first draft in the first 2 Rounds only safe WRs like Ra or later someone like Evans. Between them only RBs if possible
Lots of different ways to build a draft strategy, never stick to a definite, be willing to change your strategy mid draft!
Excellent content, Kyle!
Definitely interesting! I've always been a balanced drafter but this is certainly something to remember! Thanks, Kyle!
You’re welcome!
Lovely. Henry. Swift and Jacobs are at the bottom of the RBs lol. I’m in trouble
lol same here dude. I have them in dynasty. I’m super nervous about them
I absolutely love having all my rb's in the front 8 rounds. So many receivers dont get love later in the draft that'll still play top 12-24 quite regularly.
The biggest lie in fantasy football is to believe that if you’re not a Headliner you’ve got an edge. Kyle must be a Pimp because his game is strong. Once again his data points have enlightened and educated the masses on a common topic of discussion. I get petrified if my RB room is weak. My worst teams all had one thing in common and that’s poor RB performances. Not saying WRs don’t matter. Thanks again buddy and KEEP BANGING NATION 💪🏾💪🏾💪🏾💪🏾
😂
I'm not saying it's best to draft WRs early, I'm just saying it has consistently won me championships. Last year I took Lamb in the 1st and ARSB in the 2nd. Took guys like Mixon, R White, and J Cook in the mid rounds to fill RB. Probably going to take a similar approach this year.
Based off of this channels RB efficiency charts from last year, they helped so much last year. This is by far the best FF content.
A RB with a lot of REC for PPR in the first round is usually my go-to. Depending on draft position obviously.
100%
another fire 🔥 video kyle hitting us with numbers and facts not opinions!
Yes!
Is this for redraft?
Mostly, yes. But I make a couple points re: best ball in the video as well.
Love the content but I think last years too 24 finishers is important. For example drake London skews this heavily. But his situation is different. Comparing that to last year is def helpful data
You don't take atleast 2 RBs in the first 10 picks you will lose your fanasty league Reason maybe only 10-15 top Rbs there are like 30 or 40 good Wrs .
I've always gone RB early because they're just more WR options later that can put up solid points. But RB is usually more consistent. This year I have noticed you can grab a stud WR and then still get a stud RB in round 2 before there's a big drop off at the position. Then there are many RBs late that can blow the roof off of their ADP
I go WR heavy because imo RBs are more likely to get hurt especially when most early RBs have already been hurt a bunch
@@billjones8950 fair enough
Bust rates for early round WRs are much lower compared to early RB. I wouldn't draft early RBs if they arent capable of putting up at least 18 PPR points per game. I rather go WR-WR if I cant get CMC, Bijan or Breece.
Last year I drafted RB early (Bijan, Aaron Jones, Kenneth Walker) and got WRs later (ARSB and C. Kirk). I had one of the safest floors in the league which led me to the playoffs. Unfortunately I lost by less than one point because Bijan wasn’t allowed to touch the ball, but that was just bad luck. Having a strong RB foundation helped me have the best lineup all year.
That’s a great way to look at it, locking in the floor every week gives you a chance to win
I’ve got picks 10 and 11 and am aiming for the sun god and breece hall any chance I get them?
not a chance
@@williamyoung4155 a man can dream 😭
You will be lucky to get one of them. I doubt you will get Hall.
No, Hall will be a top 3 pick, maybe top 5 if someone decides to take one of the WRs over him and ARSB is going to be top 7
In the first round its whatever is the best available and then the opposite of my first pick in the second. Followed by RB in the third unless a stud falls. Then basically best value from there.
If the player in question is missing games due to injury or suspension, you do not have that baked into the risk assessment. Other than that, you guys are doing a great job.
That's because we aren't trying to determine how risky they are based on health. We are trying to determine how risky they are based on the range of outcomes for their performance. Hope that clarifies, thanks!
What's missing is who has those good games at the end of the season n who has bad games to end the season.
This may be pure speculation, but it felt like there were a huge amount of QB injuries last year that could've affected the top WR numbers. Great video!
Possibly! But really the point I was trying to make is that the WR position each week is more volatile because the ball could go to anyone, any week
i prefer 2 rb and 1 wr as my first 3 picks. i try to be fluid w/ how to go about it given draft position
I agree with that draft process
Very enlightening
Not to be contrarian, but this data TO ME seems like it supports wr heavy draft. If you hit early or WR you still have a good chance to get a decent RB later. But if you draft Rb early you might smash at that position, but you have a much less likely chance to get a good WR. I usually go wr first 3 rounds then get my RB’s.
This shows you are more likely to miss on WR and there are lower ADP WRs who can go off and help you.
I agree. It’s very unlikely to get the late round or waiver WR1’s…at RB an injury can put a 3rd string into RB1 status.
It's okay to be contrarian! If you see the data a different way, absolutely try to dissect it in that manner. Personally, I feel the data follows the points I made in the video.
Not taking a rb in the first three rounds would terrify me
I see this the exact same way. If the rb position has less variance then the need to emphasize the position is lower than grabbing a stud at a position deemed more random. Also factoring in how being a top 12 rb hardly requires the amount of ppg as a top 12 receiver in today’s full ppr leagues.
Well done!
Thanks Kyle
Yes good fact, I've always drafted a RB first then depending on whose available, I'll go with that... watching the channel I have won 2 chips outta last three years...
Let’s go!
I see all the ways you can draft!! I march to MY own beat!! I don't let podcasters influence me or my decisions!! I have been doing well without them for 21 years!! Actions speak louder than words or opinions!! Watch football to get your answers!! Don't let data be your only source of information!! Yes, you can reduce or minimize the risk of a player, but that is all you can do!! March to your own beat!! Lastly, ...... HAVE FUN!!Once again, thanks Kyle!! Great video!!
30 second videos on the toilet is a great way to flush your team down the drain. Any thoughts on the league I'm in that has 1 RB and 3 WR/TE.
Well, in a league like that it depends on how many flex spots you get.
@@TheFantasyHeadliners we only get 1. I hate our commissioner.
My question with this in a PPR league isn’t it harder to be in the top 12 at the Wr position? Ok for example you said only 1 Wr scored in the top 12 Wr 9 times but look at Wr scoring and where would those wrs finished if put inside the Rb top 12? So if the Rb top 12 it’s let’s say 16ppg but the Wr top 12 is 19ppg doesn’t it stand to reason that it’s harder to make top 12? So a wr could avg 18ppr not make top 12Wr but he would still be more valuable than the 10-12 Rb
I may be misunderstanding the question, so my apologies if this answer is not correct. But if we are just looking at the scoring for WRs, among the other WRs, then everyone's scores would just end up bumping up. Now, some WRs may be affected if they get a ton of volume but not a ton of TDs and their score could move them above others, but the difference from half to full isn't that big of a jump.
Got the draft guide It is a gem 💎
Awesome!
Let ‘em talk bc it lets my focus RBs so I can win again
Great Video thx
You're welcome!
I hope some of my league mates are watching that short form trash while I soak up all this HEADLINER knowledge. Thanks fellas!
⚡️⚡️💣💣⚡️⚡️
I started my 10 manager league with
1. Kupp
2.Lamb
3. Waddle
4. Justin Herbert
And won the championship.
You would have needed quite a bit of luck on your side with that start, but glad it worked out!
yea I was kinda lucky. But predicting fantasy is kinda lucky lol My running backs were Dobbins, Cooks, and Herbert . I made some waiver wire pick ups like Gus and Elliot.
Won’t be drafting a rb in the 1st rd unless I’m getting CMC.
Bijan and Breece are about to pop off this year
To me. It's QB. I could care less. Even if you didn't draft one, you'll have your choice of several qb
I been in the game for 35years. Take RBs early. You're welcome
That’s the way!
Don't tell people this! I have been drafting 2 RB's first and I won 3 leagues last year. I love when people go no RB's cause I can get them! I had McCaffrey and Hall in one of my leagues. Was a great year!
So you picked two of the earliest RBs that actually worked out.
The worst part about the videos from HLN is having to pause them to flush the toilet so I don't miss anything....That and when your feet fall asleep....This video has made it clear to me that I want to get one of the top 3 RBs this year...Now to point my league mates at worse FF content to go get worse information from cuz with this continual Headliner content, I will definitely have a leg up on the competition as long as they dont find it. #PetitionToStopThePublicVideos is still in effect. Also, expect my next check to arrive today.
Haha, you have so many checks being lost in the mail. Hope you keep canceling them!
@@TheFantasyHeadliners Someone is cashing them.... Think you guys need to talk to eachother to see who is fleecing who... 😀
RB RB like the Headliner Gods intended
Yassss!
Thanks Kyle, another
You're welcome!
What I want to know is what is the average rb 1 numbers per week compared to wr1 numbers. Just because you say this many rbs were top 12 each wk compared to this many wr1 each wk doesn't mean anything because the top 12 rbs could have averaged 20 pts but the top was could have averaged 28. How many rbs scored 35 to almost 50 or more pts in a week like you see a lot of wrs do? So making the top 12 wr each wk seems a lot harder than making the top 12 rbs. I mean guys like Tyreek,lamb, Jefferson,puka,aj, Chase, Amon, all had multiple monster weeks. Besides CMC, kyreen at the end, breece at the end, mostert because of a trillion TDS last year. How many blew up for 35 plus pts multiple games? In other words, it's harder to be top 12 wr compared to top 12 rbs on a weekly basis because the top wr are exploding for fittie. And there seems to be more wrs doing that every wk
What up Kyle
Hey Paul!
I'm the 7th pick this year... if I don't get the sun god or hill I'm going RB
I’ve been seeing Breece and Bijan go that late in mocks. Good luck to you!
😂😂😂😂😂 YOO just sat down on the toilet
I knew it! 😂
This was another BANNNNNGER
Touches > Targets
Yes!
… Off the chain
Let's goooooooooo
This data dosent show that guys like garret wilson and drake London who are in completely different situations this yr you can’t compare adp to previous yrs data drake London was wr 36 last yr but now he’s a top 24 adp u gave to factor that same thing w Wilson he was wr 30 w out Rodgers that has to be a factor
I do my best work on the 🚽
I think what this is not considering is in PPR leagues how many more points WR score than RBs. The RB might finish in the top 12 more but a WR that finished outside the top 12 could still easily outscore than RB on that week. League is getting more pass heavy so there are more fantasy points going to WR instead of running backs.
They do cover it in the draft guide
You can't say that directly. You have to look at your scoring system to see whether running backs out score wide receivers significantly at enough spots in your starting lineups as determined by your league.
Yes, in general, the mid-round wide receivers are way better than the mid-round running backs, but if you have to have a certain amount of running backs out there, it means that running backs are at a premium and you need to get them before wide receivers. It also matters if wide receivers are not getting points per reception, because upper end running backs are going to score rushing touchdowns and that gives them a better chance to score touchdowns. In best ball formats and touchdown heavy leagues, it still makes sense to target some running backs that might score touchdowns later in the draft. And that's independent advice from what your league is doing, so make sure you click on 'fantasy points scored 2023' in your league and break down where the scoring is happening in your league.
My point to the video, is that the pass heavy nature of the league is actually making the WR position more violate. They are not as safe as the running backs who get touches.
Who’s on the toilet for 30 seconds?? Studies show most guys get caught up in a video and when they get up from the toilet at least one leg will be asleep.
😂 That’s just for one video, not the whole time!
If you're watching 30 to 60 second clips to learn about fantasy football , you might as well just give your money to me.. 😅
Tells me to stick around for the whole video, then wastes the next five minutes on ads and rambling...
😂😂😂 I'm literally on the toilet bout to wipe my JUNK😂😂😂😂
I knew it! 😂
Waddup Kyle Man you've been on 🔥 lately 🧙♂️ 🪄this one right here is next level information & it's greatly appreciated 💯‼️ Much appreciation Headliners for all you do 🦴🏈💯💪🏿‼️
#HEADLINERNATION
Doesn’t matter how many resources I throw at it during the draft or waiver wire, I never manage to have two good RBs due to busts or injuries. Receivers are easy to scoop up a month into the season. Last season I got Nico Collins with a modest claim but my RB2 for the year ended up being Jaylen Warren
This is the biggest BS video. Never go RBs early, are you new to fantasy ? RBs are the most risky drafts ever . Obviously you’re new to fantasy
Imagine leaving this comment to people that have built an entire business around Fantasy Football 🤣
LoL 🤣 - Some rando with a fake name and picture out there desperate for attention
@@TheFantasyHeadliners they built a con, and all the dummies follow. Seen it all to often with you RUclips dummies
Hey, this is Kyle, from the video. Sorry to see you had such a negative reaction to the video. It’s okay that we disagree though. We’ve been doing this for several years and if people were not successful with our advice, they wouldn’t keep coming back, so we are confident in our process. But that’s why we use statistical evidence and supporting information in our videos, so it’s not just a bunch of opinions. Of this is the first time you’ve seen one of our videos, I encourage you to check out more. Hope you find a different video to be more helpful!