Western allies’ strategic shift away from Russian uranium - Dustin Garrows
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- Опубликовано: 24 авг 2024
- The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has profoundly altered the global nuclear market. Western Allies who have relied on Russia as a reliable low-cost supplier of uranium are seeking alternative suppliers they self-sanctions by avoiding new contracts with Russian suppliers.
In a deep-dive interview, Dustin Garrows, a leading expert on uranium and nuclear energy, delves into the substantial shifts occurring in the uranium market. According to Garrows, the US is encountering challenges in securing uranium supplies, with some traditional sources becoming increasingly unstable.
China operates in a manner reminiscent of the Soviet approach, controlling every aspect of the supply chain to the final product. Russia still follows a similar strategy, but with a more market-oriented production model. China's efforts to secure future supplies of certain materials, while normal, have become extreme around the years 2001, 2011, and again in 2021, interesting as it is q noticeable ten-year cycle. During these periods, the prices of many commodities rose due to speculation and rapid deindustrialization in parts of the Western world. The resulting wave of bankruptcies disrupted supply lines and increased production in China and Southeast Asia, leading China to hoard materials. We tend to forget that before the "just-in-time" supply model, companies maintained inventories, as Garrows described.
European countries responded unusually after the pandemic. The economic relaunch in Asia in 2021 caused commodity prices to rise while many supply companies in Europe were still inactive due to lockdowns. The panic seemed to stem more from politicians than from businesses. The energy crisis of August 2021 exemplified this, as there was no actual supply crisis in the EU; rather, prices spiked due to speculation and geopolitical tensions within the EU, particularly between Polish and German allies as about what supply routes should the EU have.
The surge in orders to construct nuclear power plants, particularly those being built by Rosatom, indicates a future increase in uranium fuel procurement. However, many nuclear power station unities will also be decommissioned around the same time, leading to political panic, especially in France, in ways that are not really rational. The French reaction to the coup in Niger by threatening to invade the country due to its neo-colonial interests, was excessive. The coup targeted French military presence, not broader French or European interests, but it become anti-west as uncontrolled hysteria from figures like Macron and Nuland escalated unnecessary. The damage is done. Other countries in the Sahel and North Africa have unexplored deposits, there is no reason for paniking, some of those countries have much better infrastructure, which Niger does not.
Garrows likely agrees there is enough uranium globally, with richer deposits available than the ones in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. These countries' significance stems from the Soviet legacy of clustered industry and efficiency. As Garrows noted, Russia has never missed a delivery and is always prepared for more, prioritizing efficiency to reduce cost. However, efficiency should not be confused with technology. The Soyuz rockets, in use for over 50 years, have been continually improved by the Russians. Russians will improve a working model till exaustion before they are willing to introduce new technology.
Garrows pointed out that many countries invest in mines without being part of the extraction, expecting a share of the production. Mines in Niger have investments from China, Japan, Italy, and others. While Russia has engaged in joint ventures for new gas and oil fields, recent erratic behavior from Western partner companies, including even sabotage, will likely discourage future collaborations. Consequently, Rosatom will continue to be the world's largest operator, with Western countries remaining clients, but terms will now be dictated by the market. The price of uranium is not an issue, nor is availability; Rosatom is willing to sell uranium fuel to any buyer.
President Biden has promoted the idea of a new era of nuclear energy. However, countries working with both the WH and Rosatom understand the difference. For now there is no viable competition against Rosatom except due to geopolitical imperatives. Additionally, Russia maintains several universities focused on nuclear sciences, ensuring a steady supply of engineers for their ramping needs. The only limitation is their industrial capacity for certain components in the construction of Power plants. While they can produce these components, they lack the capacity for the volume of orders. Unemployment in Russia is historically low, around 3%, and rising wages are impacting production costs. So is not that there isn't space for other to grow, there is.
Thus, the notion that the US can achieve independence from Rosatom is wishful thinking. It can try, please do, but it will not hurt Rosatom.
Great post. Well, France may have some reason to worry. End of the day it will face much higher prices. And its nuclear plants are aging and there is not the funds to build new.
@steinbauge4591 .This is all part of the script.Genocide of the so called White (civilization ) Race
@@steinbauge4591..It's all part of the script.Greatly diminishing, all countries & people's of European descent
@@PrinceofPain-wv1lo What script? (The plural of "people" is "peoples", in case a plural was intended.)
I watched this several times. It was awesome.
You are talking about Uranium supply while mentioning Uranium enrichment only briefly, while whole issue is centered around enrichment and associated services.
For sure western enrichment is a problem. So to is western conversion capacity. Over the course of the next four years Silex/Cameco JV GLE will ramp 3rd gen enrichment production in Paducah. GLE will become a top 10 producing uranium 'mine' in the world by reprocessing UF6 tailings housed at that location (~9mm lbs/yr production) & at the same time alleviate much of the US enrichment shortfall. Centrus can handle the rest. Plus, keep in mind: 3rd Gen Uranium enrichment ELIMINATES OVERFEEDING. 3rd gen enrichment will alleviate the enrichment bottleneck and at the same time put 30mm lbs of uranium back in the market by eliminating the need to overfeed.
Nuclear reactors cost a lot to build. I don't know much about Europe, but it doesn't look as though the US government is going to have funds available for a big expansion of the nuclear fleet, and if the unthinkable happens and Trump is re-elected tax revenues will be reduced. It seems that private money will be needed to build nuclear plants, and there is plenty of that if the billionaire class decides to invest in nuclear (following Gates's lead.)