What an inspiring and interesting presentation. A lot of stuff around me and my personal journey is getting more clear now. I will start following you..
Thanks for your interest. I'm glad you found it useful. It's always easier to understand the phenomena being explained when you have lived through them
Muy buena presentacion! Gracias! valoro mucho la capacidad de sacar la cabeza del tumulto actual y ofrecer una perspectiva positiva de esta manera. Quedara citada en mi tesis de maestria.
What do you mean by not abolishing neo-liberalism!? Of course we have to abandon it. At this point it is the main obstacle for healthy growth and reducing inequality. It's taking us from bubble to bubble and from crash to crash. It's time is over. The time for production and long-term investment is now. Much more due to the COVID destruction. Markets without policy guidance and support will not get us out of this as they could not have gotten out of the Post WWII destruction
I only wanted to consider, that we shouldn't wait for abolishing neo liberalism or capitalism, before dreaming/nudging and repeating every time, elsewhere the narrative towards a different future and economy. We have to speak about, ask and work for common and not private wealth. If the people ask for this, politicians must adopt. This is what you do in your statements! Thanks for this! If you consider, that neither in China, nor Russia exists private property. The same could be in the west. Ground should belong to the county, only the houses or properties above could be owned by the constructor or his heridents. Only discussing this, means some change in mind of people.
@@Allersberge2008 Goodness, B.S. I never saw this and you wrote it a year ago. First, it would be good to clarify that there is private property in China, including land and many people have become rich with the growth of the cities. Inequality in China is worse than in most advanced Western countries. However, there has been massive improvement across the population, even if some have become extremely rich (many among the party bureaucracy through corruption). In Russia, not only is there private property, but the so-called oligarchs 'bought' all the state property, including the oil and gas companies, at very low prices. They now own land and resources in the country and also luxury property abroad, together with ridiculous yachts and airplanes. Inequality, of course, is also very great. At least in China they are making efforts to reduce it; not so in Russia. And neither country has democracy. Are you sure that's what you're dreaming of as a solution to the current inequality in the West?
Thank you, Neeraj! Great to learn you found it useful. You'll find a lot more in my webpages www.carlotaperez.org and beyondthetechrevolution.com/ as well as my twitter @carlotaPrzPerez
Thank you so much for posting this invaluable lecture. My only wish is that there were links where we could further explore the martial that was condensed for the purpose of brevity.
Thank you for the very eye-opening and all-encompassing overview of such important “cycles”, a lot can be recognized and learnt from your book! I’d be very curious to ask you whether you view the advent of ChatGPT & AI as a whole as the latest big-bang moment? All signs point to this considering the technological breakthrough it represents even though the “inputs” are far from cheap… Could you please elaborate your thoughts on this? Thank you in advance!
You can see my reply in this article in Project Syndicate: www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/ai-is-part-of-larger-technological-revolution-by-carlota-perez-1-2024-03?h=ufR6Zw18eSL8C638iep6drW3X79k7Wqr20NvaejhEn8%3d& You can also find the answer to why installation has lasted so long in this article: medium.com/iipp-blog/a-long-delayed-golden-age-or-why-has-the-ict-installation-period-lasted-so-long-b3471a0aaaeb There's a contact email in my webpage www.carlotaperez.org, in case you don't have access to the articles:
the golden age = the efficiency that comes w redefining of the "language of value" as we move to a bitcoin standard, lifting all boats away from a fraying fiat system.
Sorry to disagree. Bitcoin, in my view, is just one more innovation of the ICT revolution that has been able to flourish thanks to the excess liquidity pumped into the financial markets by quantitative easing. Ironically, it is the central banks that have made its temporary success possible. Blockchain is a much more promising innovation, but still, not a revolution either.
Bitcoin is giving property rights to millions of people who live in poor countries. It’s truely scarce and can’t be debased. The wealth creation from the 50s golden age came from individual ownership of a relatively scare asset (real estate). With Bitcoin, anyone around the globe can have ownership of a scare asset.
Thank you for posting your presentation btw. I enjoyed your analysis of the past. You may be interested in Michael Saylor’s series on the “What Is Money” podcast where he talks about technological revolutions and how bitcoin (not crypto) is a technological revolution due to a handful of factors such as instant value transfer globally, absolute scarcity and preservation of energy.
@carlota Can you make a connection to wars and the turning points? We are seeing war times now, as well as WW2 around the last turning point. But maybe there is no such pattern?
No, Mats. I started out thinking that there would be a connection but could not find regularities. WWI happened at maturity, WWII at the Turning Point, the Korean War in early deployment, the VietNam war at maturity. And if we go back to the earlier revolutions, the revolutionary war in Europe happened in installation and the Napoleonic wars in deployment, as well as the Crimean war. The Boer war was in installation. It looks like wars do not respond to the regularities I study. Sorry that I only saw your comment a month later.
@@carlotaprzperez Thank you for that clarity. When you are in the middle of war times it is easy to see a connection that is not there in the data... And thanks for your research, I use this a lot when we talk about digitalization with companies - it really gives some perspective.
Thank you very much for the great presentation. I would like to know how the new age space industry is going to affect in the time of the golden age of ICT? Is the space industry starting a new age of technological revolution or is it part of the golden age as you mentioned?
I think the space industry was part of the mass production revolution due to the peculiar circumstances of the Cold War. It meant major technological feats that could only be accomplished by enormous public expenditure in a high tax economy. The early computers and materials were stretched to their limits. Now, with powerful information technology and the capacity to design materials to order, space can become a private industry that could perhaps be profitable (although it might depend on having enough millionaires, so that some will pay for the excitement). I don't think scarcity of materials will become so acute that the cost of space mining -- as some propose -- will be profitable
Marc Andreessen said your book 'Technology Revolutions', along with 'The innovator's dilemma' were the two most important books on how the technology industry works.
I definitely don't think it's a revolution, even though many who have read my book believe so. It could well be another bubble, but in my opinion it's eventual collapse would not lead to a major transformation. A revolution is a combination of technologies and infrastructures that influence every economic and social sector, increasing their productivity and changing their nature. I gave a talk at Consensus about it, in discussion with Chris Burniske. It’s in my RUclips channel. I think Blockchain is a revolutionary technology (not a technological revolution) and that Bitcoin is probably the main innovation based on it.
Very interesting presentation. I think 5G and the advent of the Spatial Web will be an important factor in the determination of the next golden age that you refer to .
It could be, indeed. But I would be more inclined to see the uses of information technology in overcoming the environmental threats and at the same time making people's lives better
The recommendation laid out has a very faulty premise: the social engineering ideology is not a sustainable way to solve for the technical waste of human employment. It is not okay to have a technical mission that does not include the contribution of and preparation of the current and future generation. It is absurd to believe the subsidized & inflated green movement will sustain the future when it couldn't support itself. A better strategy would be to equip the populous as technology is developed through innovative teams on each board or organization with an experiment quota. This can be rewarded by tax credit that is already earmarked in block grants to city & state development.
You're right. It was not meant to be so all-encompasing. But when I talk about full global development, I do mean to include China and Russia as well as the whole of the so-called Global South. WE need to set up a positive sum game between advanced, emerging and devloping countries as well as between humanity and the planet.
You are my inspiration and a great thought leader, Thank you! :)
Wow, thank you!
Thank you! Sorry it took me two months to see your comment
What an inspiring and interesting presentation. A lot of stuff around me and my personal journey is getting more clear now. I will start following you..
Thank you! I'm delighted you found it inspiring
Thanks for your interest. I'm glad you found it useful. It's always easier to understand the phenomena being explained when you have lived through them
Muy buena presentacion! Gracias! valoro mucho la capacidad de sacar la cabeza del tumulto actual y ofrecer una perspectiva positiva de esta manera. Quedara citada en mi tesis de maestria.
Graaaaciassss!
Marvellous! We must not be afraid from future, and we must not abolish neo-liberalism before.
What do you mean by not abolishing neo-liberalism!? Of course we have to abandon it. At this point it is the main obstacle for healthy growth and reducing inequality. It's taking us from bubble to bubble and from crash to crash. It's time is over. The time for production and long-term investment is now. Much more due to the COVID destruction. Markets without policy guidance and support will not get us out of this as they could not have gotten out of the Post WWII destruction
I only wanted to consider, that we shouldn't wait for abolishing neo liberalism or capitalism, before dreaming/nudging and repeating every time, elsewhere the narrative towards a different future and economy. We have to speak about, ask and work for common and not private wealth. If the people ask for this, politicians must adopt. This is what you do in your statements! Thanks for this!
If you consider, that neither in China, nor Russia exists private property. The same could be in the west. Ground should belong to the county, only the houses or properties above could be owned by the constructor or his heridents. Only discussing this, means some change in mind of people.
@@Allersberge2008 Goodness, B.S. I never saw this and you wrote it a year ago. First, it would be good to clarify that there is private property in China, including land and many people have become rich with the growth of the cities. Inequality in China is worse than in most advanced Western countries. However, there has been massive improvement across the population, even if some have become extremely rich (many among the party bureaucracy through corruption). In Russia, not only is there private property, but the so-called oligarchs 'bought' all the state property, including the oil and gas companies, at very low prices. They now own land and resources in the country and also luxury property abroad, together with ridiculous yachts and airplanes. Inequality, of course, is also very great. At least in China they are making efforts to reduce it; not so in Russia. And neither country has democracy. Are you sure that's what you're dreaming of as a solution to the current inequality in the West?
Very Interesting!! Absolutely worth every minute watching it!! Will start following you indeed..
Thank you, Neeraj! Great to learn you found it useful. You'll find a lot more in my webpages www.carlotaperez.org and beyondthetechrevolution.com/ as well as my twitter @carlotaPrzPerez
I wish RUclips would send warnings when there are messages. I'm replying four months later! Thanks for your interest!!!
Great talk
Impressive!!!
Nothing new or original but a good synthesis of what more left-leaning centrist people have been pushing for the last 5 years. Thank you Carlota
Thank you so much for posting this invaluable lecture. My only wish is that there were links where we could further explore the martial that was condensed for the purpose of brevity.
You can go to my webpage: www.carlotaperez.org
There is plenty of material there as well in my project page: beyondthetechrevolution.com/
There's pennty in my website: www.carlotaperez.org
Sorry for the typo: plenty!
Thank you for the very eye-opening and all-encompassing overview of such important “cycles”, a lot can be recognized and learnt from your book!
I’d be very curious to ask you whether you view the advent of ChatGPT & AI as a whole as the latest big-bang moment? All signs point to this considering the technological breakthrough it represents even though the “inputs” are far from cheap…
Could you please elaborate your thoughts on this? Thank you in advance!
You can see my reply in this article in Project Syndicate: www.project-syndicate.org/magazine/ai-is-part-of-larger-technological-revolution-by-carlota-perez-1-2024-03?h=ufR6Zw18eSL8C638iep6drW3X79k7Wqr20NvaejhEn8%3d&
You can also find the answer to why installation has lasted so long in this article: medium.com/iipp-blog/a-long-delayed-golden-age-or-why-has-the-ict-installation-period-lasted-so-long-b3471a0aaaeb
There's a contact email in my webpage www.carlotaperez.org, in case you don't have access to the articles:
the golden age = the efficiency that comes w redefining of the "language of value" as we move to a bitcoin standard, lifting all boats away from a fraying fiat system.
Sorry to disagree. Bitcoin, in my view, is just one more innovation of the ICT revolution that has been able to flourish thanks to the excess liquidity pumped into the financial markets by quantitative easing. Ironically, it is the central banks that have made its temporary success possible. Blockchain is a much more promising innovation, but still, not a revolution either.
Bitcoin is giving property rights to millions of people who live in poor countries. It’s truely scarce and can’t be debased. The wealth creation from the 50s golden age came from individual ownership of a relatively scare asset (real estate). With Bitcoin, anyone around the globe can have ownership of a scare asset.
Thank you for posting your presentation btw. I enjoyed your analysis of the past. You may be interested in Michael Saylor’s series on the “What Is Money” podcast where he talks about technological revolutions and how bitcoin (not crypto) is a technological revolution due to a handful of factors such as instant value transfer globally, absolute scarcity and preservation of energy.
@carlota Can you make a connection to wars and the turning points?
We are seeing war times now, as well as WW2 around the last turning point.
But maybe there is no such pattern?
No, Mats. I started out thinking that there would be a connection but could not find regularities. WWI happened at maturity, WWII at the Turning Point, the Korean War in early deployment, the VietNam war at maturity. And if we go back to the earlier revolutions, the revolutionary war in Europe happened in installation and the Napoleonic wars in deployment, as well as the Crimean war. The Boer war was in installation. It looks like wars do not respond to the regularities I study.
Sorry that I only saw your comment a month later.
@@carlotaprzperez Thank you for that clarity. When you are in the middle of war times it is easy to see a connection that is not there in the data...
And thanks for your research, I use this a lot when we talk about digitalization with companies - it really gives some perspective.
Thank you very much for the great presentation. I would like to know how the new age space industry is going to affect in the time of the golden age of ICT? Is the space industry starting a new age of technological revolution or is it part of the golden age as you mentioned?
I think the space industry was part of the mass production revolution due to the peculiar circumstances of the Cold War. It meant major technological feats that could only be accomplished by enormous public expenditure in a high tax economy. The early computers and materials were stretched to their limits. Now, with powerful information technology and the capacity to design materials to order, space can become a private industry that could perhaps be profitable (although it might depend on having enough millionaires, so that some will pay for the excitement). I don't think scarcity of materials will become so acute that the cost of space mining -- as some propose -- will be profitable
Marc Andreessen said your book 'Technology Revolutions', along with 'The innovator's dilemma' were the two most important books on how the technology industry works.
Where did he say it? Is it in RUclips?
@@carlotaprzperez it’s on RUclips at his Stanford University address. Unfortunately the book is not available on Kindle :(
@@michael57603 I found it thanks. It's from 2014: ruclips.net/video/JYYsXzt1VDc/видео.html
would be nice if we can put up a video / comment saying if the Bitcoin is it a bubble or revolution ?
I definitely don't think it's a revolution, even though many who have read my book believe so. It could well be another bubble, but in my opinion it's eventual collapse would not lead to a major transformation. A revolution is a combination of technologies and infrastructures that influence every economic and social sector, increasing their productivity and changing their nature. I gave a talk at Consensus about it, in discussion with Chris Burniske. It’s in my RUclips channel. I think Blockchain is a revolutionary technology (not a technological revolution) and that Bitcoin is probably the main innovation based on it.
Likely both, with a little turning point in between
Very interesting presentation. I think 5G and the advent of the Spatial Web will be an important factor in the determination of the next golden age that you refer to .
It could be, indeed. But I would be more inclined to see the uses of information technology in overcoming the environmental threats and at the same time making people's lives better
The recommendation laid out has a very faulty premise: the social engineering ideology is not a sustainable way to solve for the technical waste of human employment. It is not okay to have a technical mission that does not include the contribution of and preparation of the current and future generation. It is absurd to believe the subsidized & inflated green movement will sustain the future when it couldn't support itself. A better strategy would be to equip the populous as technology is developed through innovative teams on each board or organization with an experiment quota. This can be rewarded by tax credit that is already earmarked in block grants to city & state development.
Everything is good until enters green economy.
I'm afraid, without the green economy, everything will be bad
Narrative is too western centric, Things don't quiet align with China and too an extent India into the mix, which is ~35% of world's population.
You're right. It was not meant to be so all-encompasing. But when I talk about full global development, I do mean to include China and Russia as well as the whole of the so-called Global South. WE need to set up a positive sum game between advanced, emerging and devloping countries as well as between humanity and the planet.
@@carlotaprzperez Thank you so much for sharing this incredible knowledge and wisdom.
@@dennismaorwe Thanks for your appreciation
Moreover, you quote Macron. I fear you are an ecosocialist technocrat full of totalitarian dreams.
Really? Just because I quote Macron about not returning to business as usual? Totalitarian? Strange conclusions you arrived at!