Football always rotates like this and people continue to be shocked for some reason. Passing takes over, LBs get smaller and faster and the box opens up. Passing starts to slow down and teams use the run game, defenses eventually adjust, stack the box, and invest in bigger LBs. The elite players that can do both will always be rare. In another couple seasons RB’s aren’t important talk will start again.
I’m so happy about this and I noticed it week 1. My childhood NFL literally had upwards of 23 1,000 yard rushers, and I promise you it was the most exciting era of football ever! QBs still threw the ball a good amount, and def aired it out over the middle of the field and threw bombs when they DID throw the ball. Every single week, maybe you didn’t get to catch it live, maybe you did, but you would get the updates from New York on a check in and it would be one of the many elite RBs going OFF. One week it would be Tomlinson going for 239 and 3 TDs and 8 receptions and 90 yards, maybe he also threw a TD. The next week, it was Faulk catching and rushing for a TD in the first qtr. If you were lucky, it was even Clinton Portis going off for FIVE big play touchdown runs on 20 carries to destroy the chiefs wirh 220 yards as a ROOKIe. Anyone who didn’t get to see that era, let me tell you if you did you wouldn’t think that a passing focused league was more fun. Oh let me add lastly that if you have been told Ricky Williams didn’t live up to the hype as a pro, you didn’t see his first year in Miami. That was one of the best running backs on display I’ve EVER seen. Holy crap. Size, speed, desire, insanity, power, quickness. Wtf. Put the entire team LITERALLY on his back and he carried them to 9 wins. His QB was Jay Fielder…AND HE got injured for half the season and the QB play was so bad it made you just dream about having a QB back as good as Jay haha. Ricky is a HOFer
Yeah, the 2 high safeties is killing the yardage and TDs, but it's reviving the RB's and running game. And we'll stay like that for a bit while we figure how to do runs like this.
The two high shell is a hallmark of the Tampa 2 defense of the late 90’s and early 2000’s. At the time, human battering rams like Eddie George, Jerome Bettis and Tampa’s own Mike Alscott were making teams load the box and daring teams to beat them through the air. Tampa Bay was so successful because they were littered with hall of fame talent like Warren Sapp, Simione Rice and Derrick Brooks, in the front 7 and Ronde Barber and John Lynch in the secondary who were sure tacklers that dared you to run against them. The meta of the NFL shifted to the other end of the spectrum 10 years later as Manning, Brady and Brees picked apart defenses with athletic tight ends, slot receivers and scat backs, spreading the defense out. Running quarterbacks like Jackson, Murray and Hurts have defined the game for the last half decade which has led the probably the most finesse focused defenses ever seen in football history. The pendulum swinging back to the other end of the spectrum was an inevitable result.
Almost the entire league used 2 high safety during the era of Manning and Brady The Seahawks D was so great because we broke out of the 2 high shell mold using Earl Thomas elite skills.
Honestly the 2010s were the outlier in passing when compared to the history of the nfl. We're probably not gonna see passing seasons like that for a while.
I’d argue that the reason why there isnt a running back “worth 20 million” has less to do with how talented the best backs are, than it has to do with how good almost all of the backs who make it to the NFL are today. Jordan Mason is freaking awesome. It’s not just because of the line. Their line isn’t even that great this year. It’s paltry due to Kyle’s great run schemes, but Jordan is also leading the league in forced missed tackles, a FEY indicator stat of who the best and most talented backs are. Outside of Mason, look at all of the backs we have in the league who show so much running back ability when they’ve had their carries, or touches: Bijan Gibbs Montegomery Mason CMC Henry Hill Dobbins Taylor Stevenson Achane Cook Kamara Barkley Singletary Jamal Williams Breece Robinson Jr Gus Swifty Sanders Chubba Herbert Pacheco Hunt Jones Jacobs. I could go on and on and on. ALL of these backs have either already had 1,000 yard rushing seasons, 1,000-2,000 total yard seasons. 100 yard games. Multi TD games. 50+ yard runs. 5.0 yards per carry seasons. They’ve all shown the ability to be effective and productive on what we usually consider a pro bowl level when they’ve had the ball at times. And I know I left plenty of guys off, Najee, Warren, literally SO many. That speedy back in Denver and Baltimores rookie last year. The BACKuP in DC who scored TWICE last week. So I gotta tell y’all, as a kid in the 00s we had so many awesome RBs! BUT keep in mind, we also had plenty of guys who were backups who, when they would get carries, wouldn’t really produce much at all. I feel as though today, there might not be as much elite historic talent at the tippy top( it’s hard to tell because of the lack of volume…maybe Bijan and Gibbs and Breece are as good as young LDT, Portis, and Faulk were? But we haven’t seen the numbers yet?) but i definitely think the DEPTH is INSANE. I have noticed that a LOT of these backs are able to produce like 1,000 yard rushes WHEN they get touches. They might not actually rush for 1,000 or have 100 yard games, but if we look at what they do on their limited touches, and project that out using 2000s star RB volume? Maybe we’d have even more 1,000 yard rushers than we could imagine.
You kind of let yourself get off on a tangent there about the bears but overall you're exactly right. The answer to seeing a defense very frequently is to shift to a different offensive attack. If you can't do that, then whatever game you're playing is not much of a game. If you have to just forbid a strategy because there's no counter strategy you're looking at a fundamental design flaw. Fortunately that's not the case in football there's a running game. Mel Kiper doesn't understand the game well enough I guess LOL
I love some explosive runs. The bills try to do a weird scheme that allows the run on two high. But they when healthy do it best. Because theyre normal players work well against the run usually. But they are hurt so the ravens crushed them.
Yeah, I didn't understand why people thought passing numbers being down was a bad thing when its relative to previous few years and passing by and large is still dominant. If they're going to stop you from big plays and force you to beat you with consistency, well running the ball is the most consistent way to move the ball forward.
It's like they started spying on my video game and were like "let's try this". I use nickel as my base because I'm a big Don Shula fan. He came up with it.
I said this last year. All the RBs were complaining about salaries. I said wait a season. All those FA RBs got picked up. You can think he Lions for it.
When i played varsity football we ran the T. My head coaches logic was as simple as this, you dont need to score a touchdown on every other play youre out there, you dont even need to get a first down every play, all you need to do is get at least 3 yards every down. If you can do that you will win most of the football games youre going to play.
Games are lower scoring, but defenses aren't particularly playing well, offenses just don't have the talent to pick them apart. The average talent in the league has gone down massively, especially at QB and OL, so the normal counter of "just run the football" doesn't work. Because teams know they can stack the box and the offense can't do anything about it. Defenses are lining up with 5 man fronts and winning in the trenches solely because the offense isn't good enough to punish them. Lining up in a 5-2-4 or a 5-1-5 leaves you completely exposed if players can get to the 2nd level, but they can't. The only positions where quality has gone up is defensive line, so naturally they will dominate the trenches against pass and run when the offense doesn't have the talent to pick the holes apart
You have it completely backwards, talent has gone way up leveling out differences between poor and bad teams. Only place ive noticed talent being questionable is o lines, but i think the talent is still there, its just more concentrated. Chiefs have 3 pro bowl talents in their interior 3, eagles o line has 3 pro bowl talents, lions have 2, ravens are young but look very promising, browns o line is still stacked just hurt, falcons o line is stacked, colts o line is stacked, and so on. The idea that offenses dont have talent is ridiculous, the main problem they face is evolution in defensive coaching and theory and higher rates of injury at key offensive positions during a defensive renaissance in the nfl.
@@JD-ob1jf I've seen it with my eyes, talent is definitely down. So many wide receivers dropping wide open passes, no more monsters like Gronk at tight end, runningbacks aren't taking 11 on their own like prime Marshawn Lynch, talent is what down on offense
@@symptomofsouls there are mountains of good tight ends in football right now, top receiver talent is everywhere, and runningbacks are so good there are committee rooms instead of limited amounts of workhorses. Just because offense is played differently doesn't mean that talent isn't there
@@JD-ob1jf there is actually very few good running backs, which is why the committee approach became a thing. So many average players, very few true starters There are very few do it all tight ends, most are only good at 1 aspect of the game, which is why they have to be rotated There is not elite wr talent everywhere, so many of those "elite" talents regularly drop wide open passes, or get completely shut down when they face good defenses. Elite wide receivers can and should get open against almost anyone, bar maybe a Revis island-type corner, which the league does not have anymore Just admit it, offensive talent sucks
@@symptomofsouls tyreek hill 1800, ceedee lamb with 1700, amon-ra 1500, nacua 1500, AJ Brown 1450, DJ moore 1350, aiyuk 1350, Nico 1300. You wont see that kind of receiver production in any era but this one. Name an era with plenty of "do it all" tight ends, good luck. Most tight ends through history are either good blockers and ok receivers or good receivers and ok blockers. There are plenty of elite RBs in todays game, some are older now but that doesn't take away from what they've accomplished. AK41, CMC, saquon, Henry, jonathan taylor, chubb, breece hall, any a mountain of other really good backs. You're either incredibly ignorant or a troll.
i love how people are throwing fits over defensive dominance when literally all they have to do is get their coach to call a different game than he has the last 5 years, im a lions fan and the brand of football they play can face any defence because they run the ball and pass when the defense commits to stopping the run, its the same reason there has been a shanahan offense in the league every year since the 80s, the run alot of play action off of a dominant running game, they play football how it was meant to be played.
People fundamentally misunderstand the “running backs” aren’t valuable thing. Running backs will always be valuable but the difference between a decent running back and a great running back is the difference between 4.0 yards per carry and 4.5 yards per carry. It’s not worth paying an exorbitant amount for a guy who can get you an extra .5 yards per carry. So it’s better to get two decent guys and switch them out so they are fresher and healthier than it is to pay 1 guy a ton of money. This is true whether you want to run the ball every play or not.
Every single time the discourse starts revolving around how Runningbacks are becoming irellevant or whatever, they always end up back in relevancy in, at most, a season.
I hate to be a hater but these conclusions are very flawed… there’s no actual evidence that RB efficiency has improved during this season just because dropback passing efficiency has decreased a little bit. 1. The increase in “rushing efficiency” that most people cite actually comes from the increased amount of QB designed runs (which tend to be way more efficient than RB runs) and scrambles (which should actually be counted towards dropback efficiency bc they are designed pass plays). 2. The 2 high coverage shell doesn’t necessarily mean there are less run fitters. In fact, in cover 3 you might have 3 deep players who are basically non factors in the run game. In another 1 high shell coverage like cover 1 man, the man defenders might not have their eyes back in the backfield depending on who they’re covering. So basic cover 2 might actually be better at fitting the run than these 2 common single high shell coverages. 3. There are several big issues with paying a lot for RBs. Rushing tends to be way way less efficient than dropback passing (counting scrambles as dropbacks). RBs are also extremely replaceable bc a lot of their rushing success is determined by run blocking and opposing team box counts. - Analytics nerd
I don't think you watched a single minute of the actual video my brother. My whole point was that the top 10 runningbacks in yards were getting over half a yard extra before contact, allowing teams to get extra mileage out of their RBs. The RBs who actually take advantage of that fact may increase their value over the course of the year. In cover 3, it's the CB responsibility to drop deep, which does not affect the box.
@@secondread I watched the whole thing. You very clearly offered the solution that teams should run more against these 2 high shells. Bulk yardage is also a terrible way to judge efficiency. It’s more so just correlated with the amount of carries a guy receives. You’re right, I still don’t completely understand the connection between yards before contact and paying RBs more. You kinda lost me there. If anything that’s just a bigger reason to care more about run blocking than individual RBs. The coverage shell point I made is situation dependent. Some teams spill the runs to the outside where safeties can then tackle outside runs vs playing in the box. Also a cover 2 defender might be closer to the line of scrimmage and can be a more impactful player vs condensed formations vs a cover 3 defender that’s way off the ball. My point wasn’t necessarily that one is better than the other but that there’s more nuance to it than “1 high = pass, 2 high = run” that a lot of ppl believe. Based on your comment I’m not convinced you read my comment either. I wasn’t even trying to be hateful, a lot of people have just made similar points and I don’t think there’s enough evidence to back them up.
I know you weren't necessarily trying to be hateful, but I feel like you're making points that aren't really related to what I'm saying. Im not trying to be disrespectful either, and I think these are good conversations to have. Here's my logic: OL play hasn't gotten any better or worse necessarily, but RBs were still getting more yardage per attempt before contact. That MAY be due to an increase in C2/C4, which typically pulls a safety out of the box. If that is the case, then that makes running on the ground significantly more efficient than it has been over the past decade. RBs who can then generate yards after contact could easily pop 5 yards per carry. So I'm not really saying that RBs are more valuable than before. But, IF these stats hold up over the entire year, and IF there are certain RBs who prove they can take advantage of that more than replacement-level guys, then we will see their salaries go up. I promise I'm not trying to come off as a jerk 😂
There seems to be a huge misconception about the problem with running backs. The problem was never that the running game isn't important or that nobody runs the ball anymore, but rather that the actual ball carrier wasn't important and most of the results in the run game are up to the o line, with the back just following whatever path is made for them. The run game never stopped being important, but the ones carrying the ball were highly replaceable, with elite backs not having a significant enough difference between their counterparts to justify the money being spent. None of that has changed.
I think you missed my point. I believe there aren't enough GOOD RB's in the league that can really punish a defense for playing C2 right now. So the ones that ARE good have a chance to increase their value going into 2025. Five years ago, there were a ton of great backups who could handle the load, and I don't think that's the case anymore.
But my point is that maybe RBs aren't as interchangeable as we thought, and this is the year for them to prove that. If there is a disparity between top RBs and their backups, I think we'll see their salaries reflect that going forward.
What good is an offensive line if your runningback can't see the holes, or they're not explosive, or they can't make a guy miss in the hole? You're losing yards by employing a bad RB.
Fixing isn’t the word I would use. Changing would be more of an accurate description. As for running back value, that question is solved. You don’t take one in the first round and you don’t pay them unless your contracts enable you to allocate that money to a Henry, a McCaffery, or a Barkley and even then I’m still of the belief that you just never pay a RB because other positions are just more important.
@@secondread I would agree in terms of schemes and trends for play calling but the running back value debate is done. It’s the least valuable position on offense or defense hands down.
More important, sure. But if a team has an elite talent at RB like the 3 u mentioned, then they are the most important player… and not just on that team, but in the field.
I *want* to like channels that offer analysis. But when they even once repeat an obviously incorrect meme, that pretty much closes off this desire. Do you _really think_ that Waldron is responsible for the o-line play of the Bears? Even _if_ you were right, why is the Apex of Competence known as Matt Eberflus not removing him from calling it? I love how people respond with "he has no background in offense." Neither do we. But _we see_ the problems You know what he said after his players said to reporters "we're just trying to execute the plays we were ordered to?" Eberflus, not Waldron said "there's nothing wrong with the plays, the players are just not executing them correctly." Imagine how great the team spirit must be in a room where everyone but the person in charge knows what the problem is. & the thing is, this is part of a well-established pattern. Eberflus is _clearly_ a micromanager & a tyrant. Early in '22 he boasted about that he decides what plays to limit the offense to. Then after week 5 when the Bears don't take Fields into the blue tent for concussion protocol for not throwing to wide-open receivers, this reveals that Fields is doing that because that's how the Bears are *calling* those plays. They revealed that they were ordering Fields not to throw to certain receivers on certain plays even if they got open. Know how he reacted when reporters dared question him on this? By bringing his arm down in a chop-wave motion. Like an angry Dad's last warning before he removed his belt. Yes, he actually did this at reporters who had the nerve to ask him questions. The problem here is that he's been getting away with stuff like this all his life. He has what people refer to as 'charisma.' 2 weeks later Fields finally tried to call this out himself & 'the team' reacted in the following ways: they changed their play-calls for 4 weeks, the returned to the old ones after the attention from this went away. The Bears averaged 31 points those 4 weeks, 17.3 the rest of their games. Any coach merely doing that out of incompetence would have been fired. But he's charismatic. Justin Fields is not. So after the Bears dropped the last 3 of those high-scoring games setting a record, even though it was the fault of the defense, fans said "this just proves that *_Fields_* can't win games." The guy can't catch a break. Anyhow, Eberflus was meddling in the o-line play by no later than the start of '23 with the best evidence being J.T. O'Sullivan's breakdown of their week 1 game against the Packers. In over 70% of their passing snaps, one or more o-line players allows a pass-rusher through completely unblocked. This too was of course Fields' fault in the minds of NFL fans. He, not Eberflus calls the plays, offense & defense & Eberflus is of course the innocent victim of evil QBs & Ocs always plotting against him in ways he as HC is powerless to try & stop. Oh & o-line players. They're out to get him too purposefully making themselves look inept just to do so proving how determined they all are.
Brother, I'm not even sure what argument you're trying to make. I criticized the entire coaching staff, but especially the OC, because he is responsible for the playcalling at the end of the day.
@@secondread So Andy Reid, Sean McVay & Kyle Shanahan are OCs? & HCs who *actively tell their players to follow the plays called* have zero responsibility? okay.
The three coaches you named are the playcallers, so they are responsible for the plays being called. Obviously in the Bears case, that's not how that works. You're intentionally acting dense. If the HC is NOT the playcaller, they need to hold their OC accountable for not getting the job done.
What's Old is New Again. 4 d-backs in a 4-3 was de rigueur decades ago and didn't really start changing until Buddy Ryan's 46 won a super bowl and Dungy's cover 2 succeeded it. And I'll give you 3 guesses as to what kind of backfields offenses ran against the 4-3. When the power-I and wishbone gets resurrected we will have come full circle. edit: stopped at 0:57 because it's hard listening to kids talk about history so he may have covered this
Lol I don't go into the history, because I'm trying to help casuals understand the tendencies they're seeing and why the NFL looks like it does this season. Casual fans don't need (or want) to understand how C2 was invented and how it's changed over the past century. If they want that sort of thing, I highly recommend Brett Kollman! Not me though. And just an FYI, I am most certainly not a kid.
@@secondread Good reply. I was referring to the phenomenon brought on by the internet where many young people display almost fanatical expertise on things that happened after they were born and almost complete ignorance of things that happened before that. I meant nothing personal even though I sound pretty condescending. When you are 54, you will understand my comment, especially when watching pro sports.
🤣😡😤🏈🏈💯🤔😡😡😂 And just think 🤔 how insanely wrong and foolish it was to trust the " on " Smart guys who knows less about the game and all about the ANALYTICS How Stupid were organizations to Willing pass up on King Henry or Barkley or Cooks or J.Jones Simply because the Analyst guy said Running Backs are asking for to much 💰 and don't really effect the team so save your money How good would the Bengals, Cowboys, Rams, Raiders be right now week 4 with 1 of those top RB's on the current roster Running Backs are pointless in today's NFL Running Backs are overpaid positions It's getting to the point over the last 7or 10 years now and getting worst. That the trusted Professionals within the Media are very very inaccurate and wrong again 💯.. Seems more and more every week and year that the average person, like us and the readers know more about what actually works than the highly paid & self proclaimed professionals... This ANALYTICS is false gold and fans as well as Organizations are put way too much trust in it. 💯 Ravens Eagle's Vikings Saints Texans Along with real Deep Playoff contention, what do these teams have in common You guessed it, THE HELL with this pointless New Age ANALYST shit..... We know what we need to Win & we're going to pay a quality veteran Running Backs to improve our chances TO Move The Chains, Take the pressure off the QB, SCORE MORE and to ultimately win more games. Over usage of ANALYST is major part of why QB's are doing less successful... The teams that us the least about of ANALYST and trust their own Football knowledge are also the Teams winning More Lions Bills Eagles Steelers Texans Chargers Vikings Ravens Teams with coaching staffs that just go out their and ball 🏈 you see the difference with these teams even when they lose.
I’d argue that the reason why there isnt a running back “worth 20 million” has less to do with how talented the best backs are, than it has to do with how good almost all of the backs who make it to the NFL are today. Jordan Mason is freaking awesome. It’s not just because of the line. Their line isn’t even that great this year. It’s paltry due to Kyle’s great run schemes, but Jordan is also leading the league in forced missed tackles, a FEY indicator stat of who the best and most talented backs are. Outside of Mason, look at all of the backs we have in the league who show so much running back ability when they’ve had their carries, or touches: Bijan Gibbs Montegomery Mason CMC Henry Hill Dobbins Taylor Stevenson Achane Cook Kamara Barkley Singletary Jamal Williams Breece Robinson Jr Gus Swifty Sanders Chubba Herbert Pacheco Hunt Jones Jacobs. I could go on and on and on. ALL of these backs have either already had 1,000 yard rushing seasons, 1,000-2,000 total yard seasons. 100 yard games. Multi TD games. 50+ yard runs. 5.0 yards per carry seasons. They’ve all shown the ability to be effective and productive on what we usually consider a pro bowl level when they’ve had the ball at times. And I know I left plenty of guys off, Najee, Warren, literally SO many. That speedy back in Denver and Baltimores rookie last year. The BACKuP in DC who scored TWICE last week. So I gotta tell y’all, as a kid in the 00s we had so many awesome RBs! BUT keep in mind, we also had plenty of guys who were backups who, when they would get carries, wouldn’t really produce much at all. I feel as though today, there might not be as much elite historic talent at the tippy top( it’s hard to tell because of the lack of volume…maybe Bijan and Gibbs and Breece are as good as young LDT, Portis, and Faulk were? But we haven’t seen the numbers yet?) but i definitely think the DEPTH is INSANE. I have noticed that a LOT of these backs are able to produce like 1,000 yard rushes WHEN they get touches. They might not actually rush for 1,000 or have 100 yard games, but if we look at what they do on their limited touches, and project that out using 2000s star RB volume? Maybe we’d have even more 1,000 yard rushers than we could imagine. I went to the 2006 season. We had 23 1,000 yard rushers! Wowza!!! But the volume they were getting is insane. 27 backs had at least 220 Carries. Of the top 20 rushers? 5 averaged over 5 yards a carry( not including Vick haha!) 12 of the top 20 had under 4.5 yards per carry. Today? You have to count down THIRTEEN spots on the rushing leader list to find a back below 4.5. 6 of the top 13 are over 5.0 per carry! I KNOW it’s early. I know this will come down to earth likely. And I KnOW just having the ability to handle 300 Carries is a skill in itself that modern backs, some of them, might not have. But I just think we need to be aware of how many insanely talented backs are in the L right now. Back then you could find a team with two really good backs every once in a while. But today, so many teams have a couple dudes back there who will win the game for them if you aren’t careful.
It's definitely a change. Big backs that run through the faster but smaller defenses in the NFL today have an advantage with these soft coverages
That's why Derrick Henry is feasting so much. Once he gets to the second level it's over
RBs are back! That's great news for Saquon Barkley! That guy's grea- oh, wait. My condolences.
😂😂😂 as much as I miss Saquon on my Giants, I'm also happy he's doing well somewhere else. Even though it's the... bleh... Eagles 🤢
@@secondreadgo birds 😅
Football always rotates like this and people continue to be shocked for some reason. Passing takes over, LBs get smaller and faster and the box opens up. Passing starts to slow down and teams use the run game, defenses eventually adjust, stack the box, and invest in bigger LBs. The elite players that can do both will always be rare. In another couple seasons RB’s aren’t important talk will start again.
I’m so happy about this and I noticed it week 1. My childhood NFL literally had upwards of 23 1,000 yard rushers, and I promise you it was the most exciting era of football ever! QBs still threw the ball a good amount, and def aired it out over the middle of the field and threw bombs when they DID throw the ball. Every single week, maybe you didn’t get to catch it live, maybe you did, but you would get the updates from New York on a check in and it would be one of the many elite RBs going OFF. One week it would be Tomlinson going for 239 and 3 TDs and 8 receptions and 90 yards, maybe he also threw a TD. The next week, it was Faulk catching and rushing for a TD in the first qtr. If you were lucky, it was even Clinton Portis going off for FIVE big play touchdown runs on 20 carries to destroy the chiefs wirh 220 yards as a ROOKIe.
Anyone who didn’t get to see that era, let me tell you if you did you wouldn’t think that a passing focused league was more fun.
Oh let me add lastly that if you have been told Ricky Williams didn’t live up to the hype as a pro, you didn’t see his first year in Miami. That was one of the best running backs on display I’ve EVER seen. Holy crap. Size, speed, desire, insanity, power, quickness. Wtf. Put the entire team LITERALLY on his back and he carried them to 9 wins. His QB was Jay Fielder…AND HE got injured for half the season and the QB play was so bad it made you just dream about having a QB back as good as Jay haha. Ricky is a HOFer
Yeah, the 2 high safeties is killing the yardage and TDs, but it's reviving the RB's and running game. And we'll stay like that for a bit while we figure how to do runs like this.
It’s nice to see the Chargers playing competent football for once. Keep up the good work!
I see it as the league finally being fully adjusted to all the rules favoring high flying pass heavy offenses
The two high shell is a hallmark of the Tampa 2 defense of the late 90’s and early 2000’s. At the time, human battering rams like Eddie George, Jerome Bettis and Tampa’s own Mike Alscott were making teams load the box and daring teams to beat them through the air. Tampa Bay was so successful because they were littered with hall of fame talent like Warren Sapp, Simione Rice and Derrick Brooks, in the front 7 and Ronde Barber and John Lynch in the secondary who were sure tacklers that dared you to run against them. The meta of the NFL shifted to the other end of the spectrum 10 years later as Manning, Brady and Brees picked apart defenses with athletic tight ends, slot receivers and scat backs, spreading the defense out. Running quarterbacks like Jackson, Murray and Hurts have defined the game for the last half decade which has led the probably the most finesse focused defenses ever seen in football history. The pendulum swinging back to the other end of the spectrum was an inevitable result.
Almost the entire league used 2 high safety during the era of Manning and Brady
The Seahawks D was so great because we broke out of the 2 high shell mold using Earl Thomas elite skills.
@@hia5235 you gotta rewind all the way to at least the old-timey 4-3 of the 70's when they had strong and free safeties and SS/WS linebackers.
It’s crazy because that’s what they’re doing now. And They have only let up one passing TD in 4 weeks ands that’s an insane stat
Honestly the 2010s were the outlier in passing when compared to the history of the nfl. We're probably not gonna see passing seasons like that for a while.
@@raymondsmith2040 not unless Drew Brees and Peyton Manning get reincarnated.
I’d argue that the reason why there isnt a running back “worth 20 million” has less to do with how talented the best backs are, than it has to do with how good almost all of the backs who make it to the NFL are today. Jordan Mason is freaking awesome. It’s not just because of the line. Their line isn’t even that great this year. It’s paltry due to Kyle’s great run schemes, but Jordan is also leading the league in forced missed tackles, a FEY indicator stat of who the best and most talented backs are.
Outside of Mason, look at all of the backs we have in the league who show so much running back ability when they’ve had their carries, or touches:
Bijan
Gibbs
Montegomery
Mason
CMC
Henry
Hill
Dobbins
Taylor
Stevenson
Achane
Cook
Kamara
Barkley
Singletary
Jamal Williams
Breece
Robinson Jr
Gus
Swifty
Sanders
Chubba
Herbert
Pacheco
Hunt
Jones
Jacobs.
I could go on and on and on. ALL of these backs have either already had 1,000 yard rushing seasons, 1,000-2,000 total yard seasons. 100 yard games. Multi TD games. 50+ yard runs. 5.0 yards per carry seasons. They’ve all shown the ability to be effective and productive on what we usually consider a pro bowl level when they’ve had the ball at times. And I know I left plenty of guys off, Najee, Warren, literally SO many. That speedy back in Denver and Baltimores rookie last year. The BACKuP in DC who scored TWICE last week.
So I gotta tell y’all, as a kid in the 00s we had so many awesome RBs! BUT keep in mind, we also had plenty of guys who were backups who, when they would get carries, wouldn’t really produce much at all. I feel as though today, there might not be as much elite historic talent at the tippy top( it’s hard to tell because of the lack of volume…maybe Bijan and Gibbs and Breece are as good as young LDT, Portis, and Faulk were? But we haven’t seen the numbers yet?) but i definitely think the DEPTH is INSANE. I have noticed that a LOT of these backs are able to produce like 1,000 yard rushes WHEN they get touches. They might not actually rush for 1,000 or have 100 yard games, but if we look at what they do on their limited touches, and project that out using 2000s star RB volume? Maybe we’d have even more 1,000 yard rushers than we could imagine.
Time is a flat circle, and so is football.
Return of the Back (There it is!)
Return of the Back (Come on!)
Return of the Back (Oh my God!)
You knew that they'll be back (Here we go!)
@@InchonDM Return of the Back (Once again)
Really nice breakdown, man. Glad I found your channel.
Welcome to the channel! Thanks for the kind words.
Wow I assumed you had like 100k subscribers after watching this. Great video!
Thank you!
@@secondreadsame. Elite football mind.
First video I have seen from you. Great breakdown! I look forward to seeing more!
Welcome to the channel! Thanks for sticking around.
Cannot agree more, this season has been the best (so far) in years in my opinion. If we could get new refs the sport wouldn’t feel so broken anymore
its a very logical change from passing to running. its always gonna be a back and forth
I concur with your premise
You kind of let yourself get off on a tangent there about the bears but overall you're exactly right. The answer to seeing a defense very frequently is to shift to a different offensive attack. If you can't do that, then whatever game you're playing is not much of a game. If you have to just forbid a strategy because there's no counter strategy you're looking at a fundamental design flaw. Fortunately that's not the case in football there's a running game. Mel Kiper doesn't understand the game well enough I guess LOL
I love some explosive runs. The bills try to do a weird scheme that allows the run on two high. But they when healthy do it best. Because theyre normal players work well against the run usually. But they are hurt so the ravens crushed them.
Saquon Barkley is still crazy value for his contact. He provideds way more value than you ever would get from a WR with that kind of contract
Yeah, I didn't understand why people thought passing numbers being down was a bad thing when its relative to previous few years and passing by and large is still dominant. If they're going to stop you from big plays and force you to beat you with consistency, well running the ball is the most consistent way to move the ball forward.
Very well spoken
Thank you!
Totally Agree!
As a long time tampa bay buccaneers fam the defense is what we need to see more often than high scoring games.
Two high shell should've have always been the base defense for all defenses.
Forces you to have a stud SS that can play the ol Rover
When they say “2 high “ just look for me
gs
Can you imagine as a running back that defenses are playing cover 2😮
Why is everyone acting like Tampa 2 defense is a new thing this season?
It's not new, it's just more common. And clearly it's working.
Seriously tony dungy and the Tampa 2 is well needed we've ran it like all the time
It's like they started spying on my video game and were like "let's try this".
I use nickel as my base because I'm a big Don Shula fan.
He came up with it.
Nice video
Thank you!
I agree
That man Kirk just threw for over 500. We back!
I said this last year. All the RBs were complaining about salaries. I said wait a season. All those FA RBs got picked up. You can think he Lions for it.
When i played varsity football we ran the T. My head coaches logic was as simple as this, you dont need to score a touchdown on every other play youre out there, you dont even need to get a first down every play, all you need to do is get at least 3 yards every down. If you can do that you will win most of the football games youre going to play.
That's what my coach taught me as a runningback, except he said 4 yards so we dont have to keep going for it on 4th down.
@@cloudmaster182 4 is the ideal, but 3 is the minimum feasibly possible.
Games are lower scoring, but defenses aren't particularly playing well, offenses just don't have the talent to pick them apart. The average talent in the league has gone down massively, especially at QB and OL, so the normal counter of "just run the football" doesn't work. Because teams know they can stack the box and the offense can't do anything about it. Defenses are lining up with 5 man fronts and winning in the trenches solely because the offense isn't good enough to punish them. Lining up in a 5-2-4 or a 5-1-5 leaves you completely exposed if players can get to the 2nd level, but they can't. The only positions where quality has gone up is defensive line, so naturally they will dominate the trenches against pass and run when the offense doesn't have the talent to pick the holes apart
You have it completely backwards, talent has gone way up leveling out differences between poor and bad teams. Only place ive noticed talent being questionable is o lines, but i think the talent is still there, its just more concentrated. Chiefs have 3 pro bowl talents in their interior 3, eagles o line has 3 pro bowl talents, lions have 2, ravens are young but look very promising, browns o line is still stacked just hurt, falcons o line is stacked, colts o line is stacked, and so on. The idea that offenses dont have talent is ridiculous, the main problem they face is evolution in defensive coaching and theory and higher rates of injury at key offensive positions during a defensive renaissance in the nfl.
@@JD-ob1jf I've seen it with my eyes, talent is definitely down.
So many wide receivers dropping wide open passes, no more monsters like Gronk at tight end, runningbacks aren't taking 11 on their own like prime Marshawn Lynch, talent is what down on offense
@@symptomofsouls there are mountains of good tight ends in football right now, top receiver talent is everywhere, and runningbacks are so good there are committee rooms instead of limited amounts of workhorses. Just because offense is played differently doesn't mean that talent isn't there
@@JD-ob1jf there is actually very few good running backs, which is why the committee approach became a thing. So many average players, very few true starters
There are very few do it all tight ends, most are only good at 1 aspect of the game, which is why they have to be rotated
There is not elite wr talent everywhere, so many of those "elite" talents regularly drop wide open passes, or get completely shut down when they face good defenses. Elite wide receivers can and should get open against almost anyone, bar maybe a Revis island-type corner, which the league does not have anymore
Just admit it, offensive talent sucks
@@symptomofsouls tyreek hill 1800, ceedee lamb with 1700, amon-ra 1500, nacua 1500, AJ Brown 1450, DJ moore 1350, aiyuk 1350, Nico 1300. You wont see that kind of receiver production in any era but this one. Name an era with plenty of "do it all" tight ends, good luck. Most tight ends through history are either good blockers and ok receivers or good receivers and ok blockers. There are plenty of elite RBs in todays game, some are older now but that doesn't take away from what they've accomplished. AK41, CMC, saquon, Henry, jonathan taylor, chubb, breece hall, any a mountain of other really good backs. You're either incredibly ignorant or a troll.
i love how people are throwing fits over defensive dominance when literally all they have to do is get their coach to call a different game than he has the last 5 years, im a lions fan and the brand of football they play can face any defence because they run the ball and pass when the defense commits to stopping the run, its the same reason there has been a shanahan offense in the league every year since the 80s, the run alot of play action off of a dominant running game, they play football how it was meant to be played.
You kinda look like Ben McAdoo especially with that Giants hoodie on
This is disrespect to the highest degree, and I have reported you to the proper authorities.
People fundamentally misunderstand the “running backs” aren’t valuable thing. Running backs will always be valuable but the difference between a decent running back and a great running back is the difference between 4.0 yards per carry and 4.5 yards per carry. It’s not worth paying an exorbitant amount for a guy who can get you an extra .5 yards per carry. So it’s better to get two decent guys and switch them out so they are fresher and healthier than it is to pay 1 guy a ton of money. This is true whether you want to run the ball every play or not.
So stupid lol
Every single time the discourse starts revolving around how Runningbacks are becoming irellevant or whatever, they always end up back in relevancy in, at most, a season.
I hate to be a hater but these conclusions are very flawed… there’s no actual evidence that RB efficiency has improved during this season just because dropback passing efficiency has decreased a little bit.
1. The increase in “rushing efficiency” that most people cite actually comes from the increased amount of QB designed runs (which tend to be way more efficient than RB runs) and scrambles (which should actually be counted towards dropback efficiency bc they are designed pass plays).
2. The 2 high coverage shell doesn’t necessarily mean there are less run fitters. In fact, in cover 3 you might have 3 deep players who are basically non factors in the run game. In another 1 high shell coverage like cover 1 man, the man defenders might not have their eyes back in the backfield depending on who they’re covering. So basic cover 2 might actually be better at fitting the run than these 2 common single high shell coverages.
3. There are several big issues with paying a lot for RBs. Rushing tends to be way way less efficient than dropback passing (counting scrambles as dropbacks). RBs are also extremely replaceable bc a lot of their rushing success is determined by run blocking and opposing team box counts.
- Analytics nerd
I don't think you watched a single minute of the actual video my brother. My whole point was that the top 10 runningbacks in yards were getting over half a yard extra before contact, allowing teams to get extra mileage out of their RBs. The RBs who actually take advantage of that fact may increase their value over the course of the year. In cover 3, it's the CB responsibility to drop deep, which does not affect the box.
@@secondread
I watched the whole thing. You very clearly offered the solution that teams should run more against these 2 high shells.
Bulk yardage is also a terrible way to judge efficiency. It’s more so just correlated with the amount of carries a guy receives. You’re right, I still don’t completely understand the connection between yards before contact and paying RBs more. You kinda lost me there. If anything that’s just a bigger reason to care more about run blocking than individual RBs.
The coverage shell point I made is situation dependent. Some teams spill the runs to the outside where safeties can then tackle outside runs vs playing in the box. Also a cover 2 defender might be closer to the line of scrimmage and can be a more impactful player vs condensed formations vs a cover 3 defender that’s way off the ball. My point wasn’t necessarily that one is better than the other but that there’s more nuance to it than “1 high = pass, 2 high = run” that a lot of ppl believe.
Based on your comment I’m not convinced you read my comment either. I wasn’t even trying to be hateful, a lot of people have just made similar points and I don’t think there’s enough evidence to back them up.
I know you weren't necessarily trying to be hateful, but I feel like you're making points that aren't really related to what I'm saying. Im not trying to be disrespectful either, and I think these are good conversations to have. Here's my logic: OL play hasn't gotten any better or worse necessarily, but RBs were still getting more yardage per attempt before contact. That MAY be due to an increase in C2/C4, which typically pulls a safety out of the box. If that is the case, then that makes running on the ground significantly more efficient than it has been over the past decade. RBs who can then generate yards after contact could easily pop 5 yards per carry.
So I'm not really saying that RBs are more valuable than before. But, IF these stats hold up over the entire year, and IF there are certain RBs who prove they can take advantage of that more than replacement-level guys, then we will see their salaries go up. I promise I'm not trying to come off as a jerk 😂
2 Words: David Montgomery
Hmm… I wonder if this means the fullback will also make a return
CJ Ham is already a FB in MN.
Make fullbacks great again😂
There seems to be a huge misconception about the problem with running backs. The problem was never that the running game isn't important or that nobody runs the ball anymore, but rather that the actual ball carrier wasn't important and most of the results in the run game are up to the o line, with the back just following whatever path is made for them. The run game never stopped being important, but the ones carrying the ball were highly replaceable, with elite backs not having a significant enough difference between their counterparts to justify the money being spent. None of that has changed.
I think you missed my point. I believe there aren't enough GOOD RB's in the league that can really punish a defense for playing C2 right now. So the ones that ARE good have a chance to increase their value going into 2025. Five years ago, there were a ton of great backups who could handle the load, and I don't think that's the case anymore.
@@secondread I know what you're saying. I'm saying running backs are more or less interchangeable. What we need is more investment in the o-line
But my point is that maybe RBs aren't as interchangeable as we thought, and this is the year for them to prove that. If there is a disparity between top RBs and their backups, I think we'll see their salaries reflect that going forward.
@@secondread they definitely are interchangeable. Its the o line
What good is an offensive line if your runningback can't see the holes, or they're not explosive, or they can't make a guy miss in the hole? You're losing yards by employing a bad RB.
Fixing isn’t the word I would use. Changing would be more of an accurate description.
As for running back value, that question is solved. You don’t take one in the first round and you don’t pay them unless your contracts enable you to allocate that money to a Henry, a McCaffery, or a Barkley and even then I’m still of the belief that you just never pay a RB because other positions are just more important.
I think saying anything is "solved" in the NFL is probably an overstatement.
@@secondread I would agree in terms of schemes and trends for play calling but the running back value debate is done. It’s the least valuable position on offense or defense hands down.
More important, sure. But if a team has an elite talent at RB like the 3 u mentioned, then they are the most important player… and not just on that team, but in the field.
I *want* to like channels that offer analysis. But when they even once repeat an obviously incorrect meme, that pretty much closes off this desire.
Do you _really think_ that Waldron is responsible for the o-line play of the Bears? Even _if_ you were right, why is the Apex of Competence known as Matt Eberflus not removing him from calling it? I love how people respond with "he has no background in offense." Neither do we.
But _we see_ the problems You know what he said after his players said to reporters "we're just trying to execute the plays we were ordered to?"
Eberflus, not Waldron said "there's nothing wrong with the plays, the players are just not executing them correctly." Imagine how great the team spirit must be in a room where everyone but the person in charge knows what the problem is.
& the thing is, this is part of a well-established pattern. Eberflus is _clearly_ a micromanager & a tyrant. Early in '22 he boasted about that he decides what plays to limit the offense to. Then after week 5 when the Bears don't take Fields into the blue tent for concussion protocol for not throwing to wide-open receivers, this reveals that Fields is doing that because that's how the Bears are *calling* those plays. They revealed that they were ordering Fields not to throw to certain receivers on certain plays even if they got open.
Know how he reacted when reporters dared question him on this? By bringing his arm down in a chop-wave motion. Like an angry Dad's last warning before he removed his belt.
Yes, he actually did this at reporters who had the nerve to ask him questions. The problem here is that he's been getting away with stuff like this all his life. He has what people refer to as 'charisma.' 2 weeks later Fields finally tried to call this out himself & 'the team' reacted in the following ways: they changed their play-calls for 4 weeks, the returned to the old ones after the attention from this went away.
The Bears averaged 31 points those 4 weeks, 17.3 the rest of their games. Any coach merely doing that out of incompetence would have been fired. But he's charismatic. Justin Fields is not. So after the Bears dropped the last 3 of those high-scoring games setting a record, even though it was the fault of the defense, fans said "this just proves that *_Fields_* can't win games."
The guy can't catch a break. Anyhow, Eberflus was meddling in the o-line play by no later than the start of '23 with the best evidence being J.T. O'Sullivan's breakdown of their week 1 game against the Packers. In over 70% of their passing snaps, one or more o-line players allows a pass-rusher through completely unblocked.
This too was of course Fields' fault in the minds of NFL fans. He, not Eberflus calls the plays, offense & defense & Eberflus is of course the innocent victim of evil QBs & Ocs always plotting against him in ways he as HC is powerless to try & stop.
Oh & o-line players. They're out to get him too purposefully making themselves look inept just to do so proving how determined they all are.
Brother, I'm not even sure what argument you're trying to make. I criticized the entire coaching staff, but especially the OC, because he is responsible for the playcalling at the end of the day.
@@secondread So Andy Reid, Sean McVay & Kyle Shanahan are OCs? & HCs who *actively tell their players to follow the plays called* have zero responsibility?
okay.
The three coaches you named are the playcallers, so they are responsible for the plays being called. Obviously in the Bears case, that's not how that works. You're intentionally acting dense. If the HC is NOT the playcaller, they need to hold their OC accountable for not getting the job done.
🤞🫡.
The nfl doesn’t have good running backs
What's Old is New Again. 4 d-backs in a 4-3 was de rigueur decades ago and didn't really start changing until Buddy Ryan's 46 won a super bowl and Dungy's cover 2 succeeded it.
And I'll give you 3 guesses as to what kind of backfields offenses ran against the 4-3. When the power-I and wishbone gets resurrected we will have come full circle.
edit: stopped at 0:57 because it's hard listening to kids talk about history so he may have covered this
Lol I don't go into the history, because I'm trying to help casuals understand the tendencies they're seeing and why the NFL looks like it does this season. Casual fans don't need (or want) to understand how C2 was invented and how it's changed over the past century. If they want that sort of thing, I highly recommend Brett Kollman! Not me though. And just an FYI, I am most certainly not a kid.
@@secondread Good reply.
I was referring to the phenomenon brought on by the internet where many young people display almost fanatical expertise on things that happened after they were born and almost complete ignorance of things that happened before that. I meant nothing personal even though I sound pretty condescending. When you are 54, you will understand my comment, especially when watching pro sports.
All good man! No hate at all. I appreciate your perspective. I enjoy hearing other people's opinions and views on this stuff.
Ask the nba…making defense useless and offense dominant makes no one wanna watch
🤣😡😤🏈🏈💯🤔😡😡😂
And just think 🤔 how insanely wrong and foolish it was to trust the " on " Smart guys who knows less about the game and all about the ANALYTICS
How Stupid were organizations to Willing pass up on King Henry or Barkley or Cooks or J.Jones Simply because the Analyst guy said Running Backs are asking for to much 💰 and don't really effect the team so save your money
How good would the
Bengals, Cowboys, Rams, Raiders be right now week 4 with 1 of those top RB's on the current roster
Running Backs are pointless in today's NFL
Running Backs are overpaid positions
It's getting to the point over the last 7or 10 years now and getting worst. That the trusted Professionals within the Media are very very inaccurate and wrong again 💯..
Seems more and more every week and year that the average person, like us and the readers know more about what actually works than the highly paid & self proclaimed professionals...
This ANALYTICS is false gold and fans as well as Organizations are put way too much trust in it. 💯
Ravens
Eagle's
Vikings
Saints
Texans
Along with real Deep Playoff contention, what do these teams have in common
You guessed it, THE HELL with this pointless New Age ANALYST shit..... We know what we need to Win & we're going to pay a quality veteran Running Backs to improve our chances TO Move The Chains, Take the pressure off the QB, SCORE MORE and to ultimately win more games.
Over usage of ANALYST is major part of why QB's are doing less successful... The teams that us the least about of ANALYST and trust their own Football knowledge are also the Teams winning More
Lions
Bills
Eagles
Steelers
Texans
Chargers
Vikings
Ravens
Teams with coaching staffs that just go out their and ball 🏈 you see the difference with these teams even when they lose.
I’d argue that the reason why there isnt a running back “worth 20 million” has less to do with how talented the best backs are, than it has to do with how good almost all of the backs who make it to the NFL are today. Jordan Mason is freaking awesome. It’s not just because of the line. Their line isn’t even that great this year. It’s paltry due to Kyle’s great run schemes, but Jordan is also leading the league in forced missed tackles, a FEY indicator stat of who the best and most talented backs are.
Outside of Mason, look at all of the backs we have in the league who show so much running back ability when they’ve had their carries, or touches:
Bijan
Gibbs
Montegomery
Mason
CMC
Henry
Hill
Dobbins
Taylor
Stevenson
Achane
Cook
Kamara
Barkley
Singletary
Jamal Williams
Breece
Robinson Jr
Gus
Swifty
Sanders
Chubba
Herbert
Pacheco
Hunt
Jones
Jacobs.
I could go on and on and on. ALL of these backs have either already had 1,000 yard rushing seasons, 1,000-2,000 total yard seasons. 100 yard games. Multi TD games. 50+ yard runs. 5.0 yards per carry seasons. They’ve all shown the ability to be effective and productive on what we usually consider a pro bowl level when they’ve had the ball at times. And I know I left plenty of guys off, Najee, Warren, literally SO many. That speedy back in Denver and Baltimores rookie last year. The BACKuP in DC who scored TWICE last week.
So I gotta tell y’all, as a kid in the 00s we had so many awesome RBs! BUT keep in mind, we also had plenty of guys who were backups who, when they would get carries, wouldn’t really produce much at all. I feel as though today, there might not be as much elite historic talent at the tippy top( it’s hard to tell because of the lack of volume…maybe Bijan and Gibbs and Breece are as good as young LDT, Portis, and Faulk were? But we haven’t seen the numbers yet?) but i definitely think the DEPTH is INSANE. I have noticed that a LOT of these backs are able to produce like 1,000 yard rushes WHEN they get touches. They might not actually rush for 1,000 or have 100 yard games, but if we look at what they do on their limited touches, and project that out using 2000s star RB volume? Maybe we’d have even more 1,000 yard rushers than we could imagine.
I went to the 2006 season. We had 23 1,000 yard rushers! Wowza!!! But the volume they were getting is insane. 27 backs had at least 220 Carries. Of the top 20 rushers? 5 averaged over 5 yards a carry( not including Vick haha!) 12 of the top 20 had under 4.5 yards per carry. Today? You have to count down THIRTEEN spots on the rushing leader list to find a back below 4.5. 6 of the top 13 are over 5.0 per carry!
I KNOW it’s early. I know this will come down to earth likely. And I KnOW just having the ability to handle 300 Carries is a skill in itself that modern backs, some of them, might not have. But I just think we need to be aware of how many insanely talented backs are in the L right now. Back then you could find a team with two really good backs every once in a while. But today, so many teams have a couple dudes back there who will win the game for them if you aren’t careful.