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Recapping Night 2 of the RNC | 538 Politics Podcast
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- Опубликовано: 4 сен 2024
- The second day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee boasted appearances from some of Trump’s former rivals, all calling for Republican Party unity.
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woooo! video! thank you!
So happy to see Galen's face! Thank you for the video!
If 50 comes out and plays many men to trump's entrance it's over 😂
Yay, another video!
This was great analysis, thank you.
I love your Podcasts! But I'm struggling to understand why your forecast has Biden and Trump virtually tied (Biden, in fact, has 54 in 100 and Trump 46 in 100 chances to win at the moment I'm commenting) when every other media has Trump as the clear favorite to win, and Dems are panicking and trying to replace Biden with another nominee.
The 538 model assumes a more normal candidate than Biden is and weighs the economic fundamentals more than the polls at this point. The fundamentals usually used IMO aren't catching the economic pain people are feeling of real wages being depressed and the model will weigh polls more against the economic fundamentals as we get closer to election day. In two months if the polls look the same Trump's chances will look better.
Their forecast is trying to predict how things will go in November not how things are going now.
They are much more cautious in their forecasting than the aggregate of polling averages would otherwise suggest. In 2020, the polling averages had Biden up by 8 points in many of the swing states and he ended up winning most of those states by less than a point. It would suit them well to hedge their bets a little bit. Likewise, polling massively underestimated Democrats in 2022
Also, their polling average likely shifts slowly. Rather than give too much credence to stochastic and momentary changes, it would change with a continuous and consistent trend.
We'll have to wait and see
If you scroll down on the page to the section title "What do the polls and fundamentals alone say?" it gives a good indication of what is currently driving the model. Polling average R+3, adjusted polling average R+2, Fundamentals only forecast D+3. The latter, because we are so far from the election, is pulling it towards the incumbent President. As we get closer to the election the weighing between fundamentals and polling shifts towards the polling.
For a deeper insight into the fundamentals you need to read the description articles on the model, it's real nerdy, I loved it!!
Is Trump finally realizing the importance of the peaceful transfer of power and the lack of political violence? Or is the actor acting?
It's certainly being heavily de-emphaized but I would want to see Trump himself to publicly repudiate his views that the 2020 was stolen before I believe it. I can't see that happening.
If Trump wins in November (which he is on track to do at this current time) then the election fraud talk is probaly going dissipate. But if Biden (or another Democrat) wins, I am very concerned on how Trump would act in the aftermath. Losing in what would be an upset victory could super charge the electoral fraud claims that Trump and his most ardent allies have been espousing.
We never got our investigation. We let you play around with your Russia bullshit for 3 fucking years while we had congress and the white house. What do you have to hide?
❤️❤️ TRUMP / JD ❤️❤️…GREAT night 2 👍
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TRUMP/JD❤