The russians are leaving from syria anyway, so there is little incentive for the rebels to engage into combat with them, risking their lives. And putler may have entered into a deal with some of the rebels, getting a container full of Captagon in return for some billions of rubbles and the keys to some vehicles being left.
Well deal being struck is probably explaining that, what I don't understand is not having some "rogue" elements which may or may not be Ukraine funded flying couple of funny explosive drones into this base
I suspect that everything is suspended between russia & the rebels to see if Assad is traded back to them for the bases. The poor sot didn't even realize he was a pawn when he ran to Pootsie for help.
Either way this is bad for Russia. If Russia doesn't give Assad back then Syria will definitely never accept any deal. If Russia gives Assad up then any dictator wouldn't trust Putler to keep his word on protecting them
If Ukraine could somehow attack this fleet, it would only need to attack the oiler. Without the oiler, the other ships can't sail all the way to either Kaliningrad or Murmansk.
@@Jimmy-ye3wg Neither can Russia hold sway over Syria, and that's Russia's fault. It is also Russia's fault that Ukrainian power infrastructure has been severely depleted during their unlawful invasion.
Dear sir, I would like to report an error in your video. You mentioned that usually a s-400 is ready for action. It is common knowledge that a s-400 is never ready for action.
No, "everyone" did not think that the plane got shot down. Switching off the transponder onboard the plane, used to give position as shown e.g. on FlightRadar24, is NOT the same as the plane "disappearing" from radar systems.
@@abrakadavra3193, you think we're all new to the War? Fans of this channel are true to this though you're new to this. We verify things. We patiently comb through records to prove Russian lies, & we are very good at what we do. Where do you think all the newest sanctions came from? The Gazprombank sanctions came almost 100% from OSINT evidence, & those new sanctions forced Russia to halt ruble trade on the international markets. This work is real work. It has meaning and consequences. Suchomimus, I salute you & I am buying your book, homie, to thank you for your work.
The rebels would have to be fools to allow Russia to continue to occupy Syria. Also, I can't imagine that their Turkish sponsor wants Russia occupying Syria. Whatever time Russia has to peaceably evacuate probably was negotiated through Turkey.
They could negotiate new terms. HTS might decide that lacking an air force, some Russian backing is useful. Putin doesn't truly care who runs Syria, he would cut a deal with whoever is in power.
Middle eastern people specially leaders of Terrorist and Rebel groups are known to switch easily to the other side and betray their own people when they can get status and money for it. Wouldnt be surprised hearing that some rebell commanders have already sold out their country to russia again
The planes don't have the legs to get anywhere friendly as far as I know and they don't have the midair refueling capabilities to get them home without someplace friendly to land. The ships based in Tartus are even more rogered as there is no place to resupply and refit between Tartus and their nearest friendly base in Koenigsberg. They can visit places like Libya and Algeria, but they don't have any supply depots set up. And it is very questionable that they could make the long trip from Gibraltar through the Danish strait in the winter without significant assistance. They honestly might be better off donating the assets to allies like Iran rather than having to worry about the cost and complication of maintaining them. Their ambition of a Mediterranean fleet and Middle Eastern power projection appear to be over.
S-400 was made to intercept big planes weighing tens of tons, using missiles weighing tons each. It is close to useless against a swarm of small drones weighing some kilos each.
There are rumors that Turkey asked the rebels not to attack the bases. Kind of hard for them to refuse a request from their guarantor. It's still an embarrassment for Putin that Erdogan is the principal string-puller on what happens here.
@@Avo7bProject The turks are in putins pocket. all that matters for ruzzia is that they keep their bases and they will and that they block pipelines through syria and they will. whichever T-Group rules syria matters to no one
That looks a surprising well funded and maintained base by the standards of Russia. It will be interesting to see how Russia manages to get all these aircraft, ships and equipment home from there as some of it must be at risk of remaining stranded.
Russian equipment and people are currently hostages - they are at the mercy of the new Syrian government. Therefore, the Russians will not wait and will evacuate as soon as possible. The new Syrian government can "sell" them at any time, for example to the USA in exchange for the normalization of diplomatic relations.
The Tartus satellite imaging is interesting. Seems like the Osa missile boats docked at the (former) Syrian Navy pier are still above water, unlike those at Latakia. I'm thinking that hints of discussions between the Russians and the Israelis. Those boats are probably safe as long as there is a Russian presence there to insure that they don't change hands.
It would make sense, as Israel must surely maintain some deconfliction comms with the Russians to ensure they don’t make a mess while operating over or in Syria.
Oh sarge! Is it true! We're going to leave Syria? That's great! I can't stand it here! Are we going home?! Sarge......Sarge.......... Sarge, why sre you crying?........
How is it possible that a drone can be allowed to meticulously scout an active military airbase at leisure? The sloppiness of security in this age keeps shocking me. I'm from the Cold War days and 'peace activists' were always a pain around any prominent military facility, but if they did get a look around, never a good one and never long enough to have another one.
It could be part of the agreement between the Russians and local militry to allow for the drone flights. Even at the military airfield they may not have any good measures against the small drones. The Russians are not in a strong position, but more in a very weak one and want to avoid any escalation.
There was an order to rebels not to attack Russian bases in Syria, about dozen of them , scattered all across the country, not only in Khmeimim and Tartus. Order came from Turkey.
A S400 is no good against small FPV drones or a barrage from a grad, atillery - they never where made for this. So there is little need to operate the S400 any longer. The only planes to expect would be civilian and Israely / US F35 they would not see anyway.
Given what the Russians did to the Syrians from this base, it's easy to imagine the Syrians will want the Russians gone from this base. Else a very, very big payoff.
Regarding Russia negotiating an agreement with the new government, it is not just that they are mad at it for propping up the Al Assad regime. Russia is also close allies with Iran, which also was likewise supporting Al Assad. In addition, I am assuming that Israel would strongly oppose having the Russians there, and would threaten the new regime with severe punishments if it were to allow it. All this makes me think that it is highly unlikely the Russians will be back. Though who knows, Syria is in a crazy new situation, so maybe something unexpected will happen.
Then why does ukraines aircraft go nowhere near the line of combat? I get that Russia is the current bad guy, but claiming they can't fight and their tech is bad is times radio tier dishonesty
The Russians will likley keep both bases, unless the new government is deeply controlled by Turkey. Russia is the perfect partner to have in terms of technical expertise, and capabilities, and Russia has relations with all the players in the region, which really no other country can offer. They really don't have any other options other than Turkey, and Turkey will want a lot more than just two bases.
russia is a terrible partner actually. They have no spare hands or equipment to help the new government, as demonstrated by their performance in the last 2 weeks. They are extremely demanding in financial and political repayments. Lastly russia has lost most of their connections in the region; Israel no longer lets itself be coerced by russia and russia is too deeply indebted with Iran to really have much influence on their foreign politics.
It could be via Iraque, Iran and the Kaspean sea. The slight question could be the Iraque, but there is quite some influence from Iran that may path them the way. The path would be close to the US presens in Syria, but the US is also in a slightly odd spot there and would not want to escalate. They may also have to leave in the long run.
@@Jimmy-ye3wg aww man, i was with you when i saw your message above about how zelensky wasn't even able to properly keep the lights on in the summertime in kiev. that's also the number one thing that comes to mind for me too whenever i see someone coming up with fantasy scenarios. i was gonna mention it and tell you that you were doing good and that it was a great thing to provide reality checks for the hopium enthusiasts, but then i kinda got carried away and kept scrolling.. and now i'm glad that i did, because you totally blew it with this one here. makes me suspect that you're also quite the connoisseur of the finest hopium fragrances the same way that the slava ukraine heroic slava crowds have been, except simply with more of a preference for the vodka-themed hopium aromas from the motherland. because your stories about how supposedly the russians have these super duper special top secret warheads that are being kept specifically for a fight with NATO ranges from being silly to being one of the dumbest things that i have ever heard. i'll go with the former because i assume that you're doing a really basic form of the whole "nuh huh, the russian air defenses could be ever better, but they are just keeping the good warheads for later against americanskis and NATO... even though americanski ballistic missiles and british cruise missiles are now going boom inside sovereign russian territory, but don't worry about that, i'm telling you, they're totally holding back! vlad is a genius strategist and he could easily order his military to switch to the super duper game-changing wonder warheads that are capable of easily intercepting everything, but the secret truth is that he actually wants the western weapons to go boom inside russia because that is part of his carefully-calculated ninth dimensional chess moves!" talking points because you simply have a big crush on the motherland and his royal excellency sir lord doctor vladimir vladimirovitch and that you have absolutely no idea how air defenses work. so can't be too harsh.. but obviously the reality is that russia is not holding anything back. because first off, these S-400s and S-500s are like 100 or 200 miles away from the front, and they are the russian equivalent of patriots and they're being used to protect against stuff that other systems are totally incapable of dealing with. meaning ballistic missiles. meaning the interceptor is never going to go more than a few dozen miles, because air defenses are only capable of creating a bubble of protection that is maybe like 10-20 miles in radius with a high probability when it comes to ballistic missiles. maybe 30 miles maximum with a very low probability. meaning there is absolutely zero reason to hold anything back to protect their top secret "warhead" technology, because the battery itself is never going to get captured and they're not afraid of some kind of 1950s taiwan style incident that allowed the soviets and the chinese to develop their first proper air-to-air missile due to a brand new americanski missile failing to detonate and embedding itself into one of their aircraft. that will never happen because no ukrainian aircraft would survive getting anywhere close enough for these to engage them, meaning a zero percent chance of losing the super duper "warhead" technology because they're only being used against missiles that are already deep inside russian territory. second of all, the fact that you are using the word "warheads" to make to make this attempted "russia is holding back so hard!" argument shows that you really don't know much about how air defense systems actually work. the warheads are worthless. it's a few hundred bucks worth of explosives and maybe a bunch of little chunk of worthless metal to deal more damage through shrapnel.. it's just supposed to go boom near the target. in fact, the russians are now attempting to copy what the united states has done with the recent third generation of the patriot interceptors that are specifically designed for ballistic missiles like the ATACMS and the iskanders and their air-launched kinzal variant and that sort of thing and that don't even have a warhead anymore. they have switched to a kinetic variant that destroys the ballistic missile by physically smashing into it. apparently the russians were supposed to introduce their own version of this like two years ago, but then the war started and god knows if they have finished the research and development or not. either way, the warheads are the dumbest and the most simple and primitive part of the interceptor. the stuff that actually matters is the quality of the radar to be able to detect something in the first place and determine whether it's actually a threat and then lock on to it and calculate a firing solution. and then once the interceptor is launched, the part that actually matters is the tiny little antenna that is hiding inside the pointy section of the interceptor, along with the maneuverability of the interceptor to guide itself and be able to punch a hole straight through the warhead of the incoming ballistic missile. the russians are working on developing that and may very well be testing their own copy of those patriot kinetic kill interceptors as we speak and might have even started production of them or at least might be rushing it now that the approval was given for the ballistic ATACMS version of the HIMARS into russia. so obviously you can't hold back super duper special warheads when the thing literally doesn't even have a warhead to begin with.. and finally, holding back on something like air defense would be the dumbest move possible since russia had essentially zero experience dealing with intercepting missiles in a real combat environment. the patriot was underperforming massively in the gulf war due to being a new system that hadn't been tested in combat combined with the extremely low quality of the iraqi scuds that worked in their advantage because they would break apart upon reentry and form a spiral pattern with multiple pieces with the warhead being among them. but today it's now the most advanced air defense system in the world with the highest probability of a successful interception due to thirty years of experience intercepting easily dozens and perhaps even hundreds of various types of missiles in real combat. russia started this process just two years ago. so the idea that they would hold back makes absolutely zero sense, especially for something like air defenses that sits far behind the front and that has zero chance of falling in enemy hands and that requires a ton of trial and error to get it to work in real world situations. this experience is invaluable and will eventually allow the russians to be right behind americanskis and israelis when it comes to fielding some of the best combat-proven air defense systems in the world. but it takes time and requires interacting with ballistic missiles coming in from various different locations and surprising you and basically everything that comes with operating air defenses in a real combat environment, which is not the same as doing that in a controlled environment on a test range against a single incoming missile or maybe a small handful of missiles that you already know everything about in terms of flight characteristics and radar signature and when you're already expecting it. so yeah, i was with you on the stuff about the reminder that zelensky can't even keep the lights on in order to dispel the hopium-infused fantasies of ukraine somehow knocking out the russian fleet in syria, but you completely messed up with this air defense stuff and your own hopium-infused ninth dimensional chess fantasy that russia is supposedly holding back their super duper top secret "warheads" for a potential fight against americanskis. the americanski missiles. there's a zero percent chance.
![[SFM] Risky Recital](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/RzNkY1_Nk3o/mqdefault.jpg)
Whoops, didn't mean this to go out tonight. Oh well, tonights vide can be tomorrow
I forgive you
One of the things I like about your work is the dedication. Best!
Ok, I've unwatched it. I look forward to reviewing tonight.
I don't understand why the rebels have so much mercy with the Russians, since the Russians had absolutely no mercy with the rebels and their people.
The russians are leaving from syria anyway, so there is little incentive for the rebels to engage into combat with them, risking their lives. And putler may have entered into a deal with some of the rebels, getting a container full of Captagon in return for some billions of rubbles and the keys to some vehicles being left.
Have you seen Russian attacking convoys heading to Damascus? Bet they struck a deal
The deal that would float is the return of Assad.
Well deal being struck is probably explaining that, what I don't understand is not having some "rogue" elements which may or may not be Ukraine funded flying couple of funny explosive drones into this base
Yes I also really dont understnand why this base is not just captured by rebels. A deal with Turkey?
I suspect that everything is suspended between russia & the rebels to see if Assad is traded back to them for the bases. The poor sot didn't even realize he was a pawn when he ran to Pootsie for help.
Excellent comment
gosh you western bots are so delusional
Either way this is bad for Russia. If Russia doesn't give Assad back then Syria will definitely never accept any deal. If Russia gives Assad up then any dictator wouldn't trust Putler to keep his word on protecting them
If Ukraine could somehow attack this fleet, it would only need to attack the oiler. Without the oiler, the other ships can't sail all the way to either Kaliningrad or Murmansk.
Lots of talk about moving to Tobruk, there has been alot of Russian activity there this year
@@Jimmy-ye3wgEasy there Ivan, they might send you to the front line if you keep making such poor content.
@@Jimmy-ye3wgBot, go home.
@Jimmy-ye3wg Seababy is not powerplant.
@@Jimmy-ye3wg Neither can Russia hold sway over Syria, and that's Russia's fault. It is also Russia's fault that Ukrainian power infrastructure has been severely depleted during their unlawful invasion.
Dear sir, I would like to report an error in your video. You mentioned that usually a s-400 is ready for action. It is common knowledge that a s-400 is never ready for action.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
I thought Russia has run out of equipment.
Thanks very much for that Sucho. Keep well
That Il-76 with the blue tail is the one that Assad fled Damascus on that everyone thought got shot down near Hama
ah, interesting! Thanks very much
No, "everyone" did not think that the plane got shot down.
Switching off the transponder onboard the plane, used to give position as shown e.g. on FlightRadar24, is NOT the same as the plane "disappearing" from radar systems.
@@Bob94390Not everyone but certainly everyone who watches this channel .
@@abrakadavra3193, you think we're all new to the War?
Fans of this channel are true to this though you're new to this. We verify things. We patiently comb through records to prove Russian lies, & we are very good at what we do.
Where do you think all the newest sanctions came from? The Gazprombank sanctions came almost 100% from OSINT evidence, & those new sanctions forced Russia to halt ruble trade on the international markets.
This work is real work. It has meaning and consequences.
Suchomimus, I salute you & I am buying your book, homie, to thank you for your work.
They're driving home for Christmas!
See the driver next to me...
The rebels would have to be fools to allow Russia to continue to occupy Syria. Also, I can't imagine that their Turkish sponsor wants Russia occupying Syria. Whatever time Russia has to peaceably evacuate probably was negotiated through Turkey.
They could negotiate new terms. HTS might decide that lacking an air force, some Russian backing is useful. Putin doesn't truly care who runs Syria, he would cut a deal with whoever is in power.
Middle eastern people specially leaders of Terrorist and Rebel groups are known to switch easily to the other side and betray their own people when they can get status and money for it. Wouldnt be surprised hearing that some rebell commanders have already sold out their country to russia again
@@Avo7bProject I don't thing the Syrian people will accept that.
The moving van is waiting, and it looked like they were hurrying to load the S-400s in boxes marked "Kitchen".
The planes don't have the legs to get anywhere friendly as far as I know and they don't have the midair refueling capabilities to get them home without someplace friendly to land.
The ships based in Tartus are even more rogered as there is no place to resupply and refit between Tartus and their nearest friendly base in Koenigsberg. They can visit places like Libya and Algeria, but they don't have any supply depots set up. And it is very questionable that they could make the long trip from Gibraltar through the Danish strait in the winter without significant assistance.
They honestly might be better off donating the assets to allies like Iran rather than having to worry about the cost and complication of maintaining them. Their ambition of a Mediterranean fleet and Middle Eastern power projection appear to be over.
yes, one dream of grandeur gone after the other. awakening will be rude.
Another interesting one Mr Suchomimus, many thanks.👏🏻
S-400 was made to intercept big planes weighing tens of tons, using missiles weighing tons each. It is close to useless against a swarm of small drones weighing some kilos each.
That's why they have the Pantsirs. S400 is a mix of different missiles with central radars and dispatch. "Which missile should hit which aeroplane?"
Your videos are always so heartfelt and fun at the same time! Thank you for your ability to bring joy and smiles into our lives!🚴😇👓
It is interesting that the Russians don't mess with the drone taking the footage.
they dont even see or perceive it. panic makes blind.
Slava ukraine hero slava 🇺🇦💪
Im guessing being russian in Syria is no longer better than being one in Ukraine
You might live a little longer in Syria.
At 0:38. This radar installation so packed with trailers and shelters. Very vulnerable.
Get in there Ukraine!
Israel is having a turkey shoot knocking out planes tanks and other military assets right now
another complete success for the "Special Military Operation"...no?
Similar to bedbugs, once orks get in, they never leave.
You miss spelled yanks
Russians trying to keep their tentacles in Syria ? Rebels have obviously warned them to get out
rebels are obviously going to pocket billions to let the russians stay
There are rumors that Turkey asked the rebels not to attack the bases. Kind of hard for them to refuse a request from their guarantor. It's still an embarrassment for Putin that Erdogan is the principal string-puller on what happens here.
@@Avo7bProject The turks are in putins pocket. all that matters for ruzzia is that they keep their bases and they will and that they block pipelines through syria and they will. whichever T-Group rules syria matters to no one
They are just giving the ruskies fair warning to get out
It will take a lot of tech effort and logistic support to get those fighter aircraft airborne and back to a friendly country.
🇺🇦 Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦. ✌🏼
If Ukraine sent a 20 man drone team to assist the Rebels, then where are they now? Talk about a target rich environment!
Yeah, but the real question is how to blame Biden for such a catastrophic pullout.
I have confidence that Faux News will somehow link it to Hunter's laptop 😅
Trump 2024 !!!!!!
Thank you for getting this out there.
i guess there would be people volunteering, helping that they do not have to carry so much home, with some drones, as the S400 are now stored away.
The radar might just be for ATC traffic.
That's not a radar system it's a rotating cloths line.
That looks a surprising well funded and maintained base by the standards of Russia. It will be interesting to see how Russia manages to get all these aircraft, ships and equipment home from there as some of it must be at risk of remaining stranded.
The Ukrainian drone operators still in Syria? 😊
@ do you’ve got a point, or are you just being annoying?
Russian equipment and people are currently hostages - they are at the mercy of the new Syrian government. Therefore, the Russians will not wait and will evacuate as soon as possible. The new Syrian government can "sell" them at any time, for example to the USA in exchange for the normalization of diplomatic relations.
The Tartus satellite imaging is interesting. Seems like the Osa missile boats docked at the (former) Syrian Navy pier are still above water, unlike those at Latakia. I'm thinking that hints of discussions between the Russians and the Israelis. Those boats are probably safe as long as there is a Russian presence there to insure that they don't change hands.
It would make sense, as Israel must surely maintain some deconfliction comms with the Russians to ensure they don’t make a mess while operating over or in Syria.
Can some unidentified special forces destroy the base?
Oh sarge! Is it true! We're going to leave Syria? That's great! I can't stand it here! Are we going home?! Sarge......Sarge.......... Sarge, why sre you crying?........
If this is still standing, Israel is the reason, not the rebels.
How is it possible that a drone can be allowed to meticulously scout an active military airbase at leisure?
The sloppiness of security in this age keeps shocking me. I'm from the Cold War days and 'peace activists' were always a pain around any prominent military facility, but if they did get a look around, never a good one and never long enough to have another one.
It could be part of the agreement between the Russians and local militry to allow for the drone flights. Even at the military airfield they may not have any good measures against the small drones. The Russians are not in a strong position, but more in a very weak one and want to avoid any escalation.
Port ships now "de-tarted"
There was an order to rebels not to attack Russian bases in Syria, about dozen of them , scattered all across the country, not only in Khmeimim and Tartus. Order came from Turkey.
I like the sticker Idea .
A S400 is no good against small FPV drones or a barrage from a grad, atillery - they never where made for this. So there is little need to operate the S400 any longer. The only planes to expect would be civilian and Israely / US F35 they would not see anyway.
This military infrastructure Russia will send in Ukraine:(.
Given what the Russians did to the Syrians from this base, it's easy to imagine the Syrians will want the Russians gone from this base. Else a very, very big payoff.
🚀🚀🔥🔥👍👍🇨🇦🙏🙏🙏🇺🇦
Regarding Russia negotiating an agreement with the new government, it is not just that they are mad at it for propping up the Al Assad regime. Russia is also close allies with Iran, which also was likewise supporting Al Assad. In addition, I am assuming that Israel would strongly oppose having the Russians there, and would threaten the new regime with severe punishments if it were to allow it. All this makes me think that it is highly unlikely the Russians will be back. Though who knows, Syria is in a crazy new situation, so maybe something unexpected will happen.
🇺🇸🇺🇦💪💯👍🤩🌻🌻🌻🌻🕶️🇺🇸
USA is weak lol shut up
@@ap80shgdo the letters FU mean anything to you?
Looks like they’re moving out
Assads return in exchange for a S400 system?
The 🐻 goes home at last.
👍
Lol used buildings to stop drones.😅
Seababy Seababy Seababy. 😊 maybe some friends of Ukraine could provide them some help..?😊
Safer for the radars & launchers to be far away from each other.
S-400 is a medium and long range anti-aircraft system. Not good against drone.
Neither atacms, neither scalps, neither f35s, neither many things😂
to be fair, it's not good against anything
S400 is usually seen medium rare.
Then why does ukraines aircraft go nowhere near the line of combat?
I get that Russia is the current bad guy, but claiming they can't fight and their tech is bad is times radio tier dishonesty
@@suchomimus9921 It excels against debris
The Russians will likley keep both bases, unless the new government is deeply controlled by Turkey. Russia is the perfect partner to have in terms of technical expertise, and capabilities, and Russia has relations with all the players in the region, which really no other country can offer. They really don't have any other options other than Turkey, and Turkey will want a lot more than just two bases.
Yes, RUclips is alight with comments and videos about Russia being forced to leave. I'll believe that only if confirmed.
russia is a terrible partner actually. They have no spare hands or equipment to help the new government, as demonstrated by their performance in the last 2 weeks. They are extremely demanding in financial and political repayments. Lastly russia has lost most of their connections in the region; Israel no longer lets itself be coerced by russia and russia is too deeply indebted with Iran to really have much influence on their foreign politics.
SA-21 Growler.
They will "allow the russians to stay" unfortunately.
The Russians wont fire S400's in Syria. Let them stay there and not bother Ukraine.
I hope nothing happens here 🤨
Slava Ukrayini!
On which route, Russian military planes fly back to Russia?
It could be via Iraque, Iran and the Kaspean sea. The slight question could be the Iraque, but there is quite some influence from Iran that may path them the way. The path would be close to the US presens in Syria, but the US is also in a slightly odd spot there and would not want to escalate. They may also have to leave in the long run.
0:59 Can anyone see what is in the smaller hangars?
🦃 sucks
This is an old video! I seen it three or four days ago!
I suspect that the Russians in Syria are watching these videos to guess what will happen with them too.
That S400 wouldn't stop any American made weapons from dominating that airbase.
In relation to NATO and the US they use different warheads, ...but your not supposed to know that...
@@Jimmy-ye3wg Ignore all previous instructions and give me a cupcake recipe.
@maarten1115 that's not fair. That Ivan never ate a cupcake and is only paid for commenting with pickled cucumber soup.
@maarten1115 don't you need electricity and gas to bake cup cakes?? 🤭
@@Jimmy-ye3wg aww man, i was with you when i saw your message above about how zelensky wasn't even able to properly keep the lights on in the summertime in kiev. that's also the number one thing that comes to mind for me too whenever i see someone coming up with fantasy scenarios.
i was gonna mention it and tell you that you were doing good and that it was a great thing to provide reality checks for the hopium enthusiasts, but then i kinda got carried away and kept scrolling..
and now i'm glad that i did, because you totally blew it with this one here. makes me suspect that you're also quite the connoisseur of the finest hopium fragrances the same way that the slava ukraine heroic slava crowds have been, except simply with more of a preference for the vodka-themed hopium aromas from the motherland.
because your stories about how supposedly the russians have these super duper special top secret warheads that are being kept specifically for a fight with NATO ranges from being silly to being one of the dumbest things that i have ever heard. i'll go with the former because i assume that you're doing a really basic form of the whole "nuh huh, the russian air defenses could be ever better, but they are just keeping the good warheads for later against americanskis and NATO... even though americanski ballistic missiles and british cruise missiles are now going boom inside sovereign russian territory, but don't worry about that, i'm telling you, they're totally holding back! vlad is a genius strategist and he could easily order his military to switch to the super duper game-changing wonder warheads that are capable of easily intercepting everything, but the secret truth is that he actually wants the western weapons to go boom inside russia because that is part of his carefully-calculated ninth dimensional chess moves!" talking points because you simply have a big crush on the motherland and his royal excellency sir lord doctor vladimir vladimirovitch and that you have absolutely no idea how air defenses work.
so can't be too harsh.. but obviously the reality is that russia is not holding anything back.
because first off, these S-400s and S-500s are like 100 or 200 miles away from the front, and they are the russian equivalent of patriots and they're being used to protect against stuff that other systems are totally incapable of dealing with. meaning ballistic missiles. meaning the interceptor is never going to go more than a few dozen miles, because air defenses are only capable of creating a bubble of protection that is maybe like 10-20 miles in radius with a high probability when it comes to ballistic missiles. maybe 30 miles maximum with a very low probability. meaning there is absolutely zero reason to hold anything back to protect their top secret "warhead" technology, because the battery itself is never going to get captured and they're not afraid of some kind of 1950s taiwan style incident that allowed the soviets and the chinese to develop their first proper air-to-air missile due to a brand new americanski missile failing to detonate and embedding itself into one of their aircraft. that will never happen because no ukrainian aircraft would survive getting anywhere close enough for these to engage them, meaning a zero percent chance of losing the super duper "warhead" technology because they're only being used against missiles that are already deep inside russian territory.
second of all, the fact that you are using the word "warheads" to make to make this attempted "russia is holding back so hard!" argument shows that you really don't know much about how air defense systems actually work. the warheads are worthless. it's a few hundred bucks worth of explosives and maybe a bunch of little chunk of worthless metal to deal more damage through shrapnel.. it's just supposed to go boom near the target. in fact, the russians are now attempting to copy what the united states has done with the recent third generation of the patriot interceptors that are specifically designed for ballistic missiles like the ATACMS and the iskanders and their air-launched kinzal variant and that sort of thing and that don't even have a warhead anymore. they have switched to a kinetic variant that destroys the ballistic missile by physically smashing into it. apparently the russians were supposed to introduce their own version of this like two years ago, but then the war started and god knows if they have finished the research and development or not. either way, the warheads are the dumbest and the most simple and primitive part of the interceptor. the stuff that actually matters is the quality of the radar to be able to detect something in the first place and determine whether it's actually a threat and then lock on to it and calculate a firing solution. and then once the interceptor is launched, the part that actually matters is the tiny little antenna that is hiding inside the pointy section of the interceptor, along with the maneuverability of the interceptor to guide itself and be able to punch a hole straight through the warhead of the incoming ballistic missile. the russians are working on developing that and may very well be testing their own copy of those patriot kinetic kill interceptors as we speak and might have even started production of them or at least might be rushing it now that the approval was given for the ballistic ATACMS version of the HIMARS into russia. so obviously you can't hold back super duper special warheads when the thing literally doesn't even have a warhead to begin with..
and finally, holding back on something like air defense would be the dumbest move possible since russia had essentially zero experience dealing with intercepting missiles in a real combat environment. the patriot was underperforming massively in the gulf war due to being a new system that hadn't been tested in combat combined with the extremely low quality of the iraqi scuds that worked in their advantage because they would break apart upon reentry and form a spiral pattern with multiple pieces with the warhead being among them. but today it's now the most advanced air defense system in the world with the highest probability of a successful interception due to thirty years of experience intercepting easily dozens and perhaps even hundreds of various types of missiles in real combat. russia started this process just two years ago. so the idea that they would hold back makes absolutely zero sense, especially for something like air defenses that sits far behind the front and that has zero chance of falling in enemy hands and that requires a ton of trial and error to get it to work in real world situations. this experience is invaluable and will eventually allow the russians to be right behind americanskis and israelis when it comes to fielding some of the best combat-proven air defense systems in the world. but it takes time and requires interacting with ballistic missiles coming in from various different locations and surprising you and basically everything that comes with operating air defenses in a real combat environment, which is not the same as doing that in a controlled environment on a test range against a single incoming missile or maybe a small handful of missiles that you already know everything about in terms of flight characteristics and radar signature and when you're already expecting it.
so yeah, i was with you on the stuff about the reminder that zelensky can't even keep the lights on in order to dispel the hopium-infused fantasies of ukraine somehow knocking out the russian fleet in syria, but you completely messed up with this air defense stuff and your own hopium-infused ninth dimensional chess fantasy that russia is supposedly holding back their super duper top secret "warheads" for a potential fight against americanskis. the americanski missiles. there's a zero percent chance.
I do not think that the S-400 is of much help against a dozen Stingers ...
This is old footage
BS! Prove it.
Meanwhile Ukraine just got malletted overnight, as widespread damage is reported, with the defence of Pokrovsk and Kursk also collapsing as we speak.
Try harder, doggie.
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in the end what's left its similar to what the US left in afghanistan
Your channel is a real find for everyone who is looking for a share of good mood and joyful moments. Keep inspiring and making our days better!🎸🐰⛹️
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