*Your explanations are clear and straight forward It's always a honor to have you here as a mentor, I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate us financially. Regardless of how bad it gets the economy, I still makeover $28K every single week. I truly value Bianca, and her helpful guides.*
Since working with Bianca Lindsey, She transformed my investment strategy, my stock portfolio keeps increasing, turning a $20,000 investment into $478,000 in less than a year. Her insights on market trends and stock selection have been invaluable. If you’re looking to boost your investments, she’s the one to trust!
I value your perspective and content .Bitcoin is on its way to breaking records, getting closer to hitting new high prices, showing that it's gaining more value and could go even higher than we've seen before. This could mean great things for people looking to invest, suggesting now might be a good time to get involved before it jumps even higher .
The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 130k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Laura Brockman, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
One thing I know for certain is crypto is here to stay, the only thing that leaves is the people who don't manage their risk. Manage that, or the market will manage it for you. With the right strategies you will survive.
*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*
After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom.
Good day all👍🏻 from Australia 🇦🇺. I have read a lot of posts that people are very happy with the financial guidance she is giving them ! What way can I get to her exactly ?
With all of the current events, what is the best approach to profit from the present market? I'm still debating diversifying my $400k stock portfolio to obtain some profits while minimizing risk.
Working with a financial advisor has been the game-changer for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that aligned perfectly with my risk tolerance and financial objectives. With their support, I've seen significant growth in my investments and gained confidence in my financial future.
Well, I picked the challenge to put my finances in order. Then I invested in stocks and Digital marketing through the assistance of my discretionary fund manager.
Ms. Claudia Brandon is really a good investment advisor. I was privileged to attend some of her seminars. That's how I started and it has been a good run of both knowledge and trade. I recommend.
80% stocks 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the s&p 500 as leading indicators predict above 10% rise by this year, my only issue is how to properly allocate a 6-figure st0ck/bond portf0lio for substantial gains at minimum risk of inflation.
I believe that diversifying your invest-ments is the safest way to handle it. One way to lessen the effects of a markt crisis is to distribute invest-ments over a variety of asset classes, such as international equities, bonds, and real estate. It's also critical to look for exprt advice.
Certain Mag 7 companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portf0lio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I fired mine 2 yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?
Sure, the likes of the popular “Victoria Louisa Saylor" does a good job. Just look up the name, you’d find details on the web to set up an appointment as she offers free consultations for Veterans like yourself.
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Victoria appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Not sure if it's a bubble. But I guarantee that fairly often there is a crash or major downturn. You can't prevent it, the market will go down alot in the future. Black swan or just profit taking, crash will show up
@@Value-Investing Unfortunately, even if know there is bubble, we can't sell everything and sit on sideline. If investor is cautious all the time no matter it is bubble or not can make good money. there are some stocks which went up by 10% while market was crashing in 2008.
it does. no one cares when a RUclipsr says its a bull run. but a dooms day, millions of hit. Fact of the matter is SnP is almost 6K now. those who invested are happy I can bet even this guy have been bull along, just making random bear scenario
Hi Sven, what do you think about Canada Goose stock? It was trading like a tech stock a few years back at 60$ a share and 100 PE. The revenue and other numbers have only improved since then, but the price tumbled to a mere 13$ a share. With the winter season coming, and a particularly cold one at that, do you think there may be a chance for a "relative" bargain here? Thanks!
You have just illustrated why this market is extremely hard to call at this point. Nothing operates like it used to do. Every time the market drops, The Fed and government moves in with stimulus. We all know the stock market will have another huge bust at some point, then another round of stimulus to re-inflate it. All you can do is try to buy good stocks, ride the upswell, wait for the next bust, then the re-inflation from stimulus.
Well, what makes me an outlier I guess! I am 57 year-old English immigrant, with zero interest in tech or stocks, and yet I am 110% committed to Bitcoin. I would describe myself as an extreme conservative/libertarian. I have been involved in UK politics for some time, and the main thing that drove me to study Bitcoin and ultimately recognise its value to Humanity was the threat posed by an over-weening government, first in the UK and lately in the US also. I regard the CBDC as the final brick in the wall of the totalitarian prison the world's governments are building for us. And Bitcoin is the ultimate defence against a tyrannical government.r.....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Sandy Barclays approaches trading in a completely unique way. I'm puzzled by her methods. She just seems to have an innate understanding of this trading world.
Question: Will quantitative easing help govt to avoid recession? Since 2008, every time there is a fear of recession, govt prints more money to ease of the tension. How long can this parameter play well for govt? I am looking forward to a well researched ans
You say it’s a bubble but it all makes total sense when you consider inflation, and the fiscal deficit every government is running which makes fixed income securities hugely risky!
The P/E in the SPX is dominated by the MAG7 (Big Tech).... here is the assumption, that the growth will be stable and high. If you reduce a bit the MAG7, the P/E is not that high. So its important to serch for value and not only buy the index. .
@@dinosgurawell the period we went from horses to space craft far underperformed the period being discussed in this video Which is where we went from a Nordic level society in inequality to the most unequal society in US history, including the gilded age And it's predominantly driven by the Fed, and financial deregulation
@@Value-Investingand also the internet. It is so easy to invest nowadays, someone in the most exotic countries can now invest in US stocks for example. This was unthinkable some decades ago, where it was very difficult for people outside America to invest in american stocks and that makes stocks a scarce product, driving the prices high.
Hi, When are you going to do a detailed analysis of Banco Millennium BCP BCP-LS? By my analysis the share has a potential for rising greater than 80% by 2027, do you agree with me?
@@Value-Investing I expect this scenario: Earnings keep growing at a double digits, but prices will go nowhere. Result? In 7-10y we will have a P/E of 10-12 at around 6000/7000 points
Comparing the 70's and 80's PEs when the S&P was dominated by low margin and cyclical businesses like oil companies or one time buy purchase companies which were proud of the reliability of their products like the automakers is a completely different landscape than today's industry. On this day and age, S&P is dominated by high margin software businesses with the holy grail of continuous suscription revenues and programmed obsolescence. You cannot expect the PEs to stay the same as the 80s, the world has changed! ofcourse the fundamentals in agregate may not support these PEs but it is a bit of a head scratcher that you expect the same PEs of a time with less business development overall.
Its entropy, nowdays "progress" grown faster than people consciousness. Financial markets are unpredictable due to psicological human beahviour so, when Money doesnt spread in different hands social condition decay and mean to put Money on business.
I think the bond market and interest rates from the 80’s to present day has played a large part in this run. Do you think interest rates will continue to go down going forward, stay the same, or increase? We are toward the inflection of the long term debt cycle, buckle up.
The inflated PE ratio is mostly from big tech companies and funnily enough those companies are the most recession resistant. Unless you are talking about literal armageddon, nuclear war, global blackout or the end of internet. But in this case you losing your life savings will be the least of your worries.
Hi Sven please review HDSN Hudson Technologies. Interesting business with low debt and strong cashflow. Margins are compressing. Would love your opinion. Thank you.
Hi Sven, let's go back to the basics, why do you think that the PE ratio is a good metric to look at? It seems to me that there are more people financially literate willing to put money (or gamble) in the stock market these days, and that's what's driving the PE ratios. My question is, will this revert or should we get used to higher ratios?
Thank you for the video and your insightful review it is difficult to see at the end what you're showing because you added advertisement slides to the last five minutes of the presentation
Totally agree but does the historical norm counts or there are factors post-80s that determine higher allocations to US equities compared to pre-80s? Globalization of financial markets, reduction of total number of companies, TINA phenomena...
Take a look at Argentina stonk MERVAL. Forever bubble. Why? Peso ARS. Are you 100% sure that the elephant 🐘 in the room is not the USD? Are you sure that the Y axis (USD) is the perfect freeze hipótesis for every economic theorem?
The problem is inflation. Prior to 1973 we were on a gold standard, Much of the gains are nominal and disappear when you adjust for the gold price. For instance the price of gold in 1973 was $35 USD, and over the last 50 years it has gone up to $2700 today all due to increasing the amount of USD currency units into the system increasing the "nominal" price of assets, goods and services.
I think that the risk of such a video is, that people might consider to stop dollar cost averaging into a low cost ETF that is well diversified. Even though the point of the dollar-cost-average strategy is to keep thinking out of the buying. You automatically buy more if the price would go lower, while you also participate if the market stays over valued until even valuation catches up. (I'm not qualified to give financial advice, it's just my thoughts)
He won't, he's stuck in the the 90s to early 2000s of market mentality. He's going to use fancy models to show that he has a PhD while ignoring the glaring truth in front of us. The market of today doesn't care about P/E ratio, younger and younger people are putting their money in the market and trading isn't controlled only by Wall Street anymore.
These insane P/E ratios of top stocks are basically just a representation of HUGE expectations for AI, these stocks values are driven by imagination, P/E is almost irrelevant for Tesla, NVIDIA, etc...
@@Deepfknvalue "Tesla (TSLA) Forward PE Ratio : 108.63 (As of Nov. 23, 2024)", but trillions are coming with FSD and robots, so nothing to worry about!
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
My CFA NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
Great video. I'm asking myself for a long time how the stock market is influenced by demographics. With the 80s the boomer generation started their career and paid into pension funds which are a powerful influence on the market. How will markets react when all these boomers and pension funds start to sell their assets to finance the retirement?
More people are invested in the market, maybe lower yield from the stock market is the new normal. Look at housing costs in parts of the world, many are indebted for life to have somewhere to live. Likely the market will drop 50% within ten years but not now since we are in a boom cycle.
Sure the market is expensive "as a market" but to the individual stock buyer, is this a big issue? Have you some insights on which stocks actually drive this growth? I'm thinking Tesla and Nvidia drive much of the exhuberance, but Google and Amazon seem reasonable to me.
Society has finally woken up to the value of a business. A profitable business is a money tree. It's worth more than 5 times earnings. 15x makes sense. 30x does not make a lot of sense. The United States has been, is, and will always be a capitalist society. It's the most innovative society on the planet. As long as US companies continue to innovate, all will benefit. If a time comes when people no longer desire such innovation (who really wants AI?) all will come crashing down. Be careful. Invest wisely. Use stop losses. Live life!
it's won't always be a capitalist society. well, unless it's capitalist until the end. capitalism will not last forever and nation-states/empires will not last forever. capitalism will end, hopefully sooner than later. we don't all benefit from us companies. the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Sven, you showed that the lowest PE ratio was in 1979 in recent times. That year loosely coincides with the elimination of defined benefit pensions by companies in the USA and 401k and Roth became the vehicles of choice for retirement savings. This resulted in the rise of private investment managers and regular people were more and more invested in stocks and derivatives like mutual funds and ETF’s. Is it possible that this higher demand for investment vehicles pushed and still pushes the valuation higher, above pre-1980’s + levels?
You can't just look at the PE ratio, you have to look at PEG ratio with takes into account growth of earnings! Growth of earning now is much higher than the growth in the 1980s..
This is true. What is also true is that the growth rate changes when there is an economic downturn. This acts as a negative multiple in the opposite direction. As they say, trees don’t grow to space, and growth does not continue get bigger and bigger.
It's not a bubble. In the past, a few investors like Buffett achieved enormous returns, but today many people use ETFs with savings plans and have very quick access to information. This means that many are effectively taking away returns from people like Buffett. As a result, it’s no longer as easy for Buffett to make "easy money." Buffett now has to settle for much lower returns because he has to share with millions of small investors who no longer face the disadvantage of high bank fees. They all have online access with low fees. These small investors are happy with, for example, a 5% return. 5% is better than nothing. 5% is not a bubble; it's just half of 10%-so what?
IMHO - Wall St. is one thing and the High Street is another thing. The kind of companies that are in the stock market eg Microsoft, Amz, Uber etc are amazing and doing things that companies just did'nt do in the past. If Microsoft wants to double its earnings it just needs to sell more software which has almost zero marginal cost. If US Steel wanted to sell more steel there are large marginal costs in shipping steel around the place. Maybe the market is not over-valued maybe the market is actually fairly valued because the kind of companies in the stock market is different then the past? Maybe this time it different Sven?
the way I see it is that we gotta play the game with the rules that drive the market at any one cicle. Momentum has been the name of the game for the last 2 years. Value plays are just starting to break out, so that might be the place to be now.
If you include in the calculations the Inflation and the content of the index(as companies), you will found out that 30 PE is not that insane number. I am not saying it is normal, but it definitely is not exuberant.
I agree with your premise, however using the same chart (I tried to cut and paste it but couldn't), I believe we have been in a bull market since either 2009 or 2014 (depending on whether you use the bottom of the last bear market or when the present bull market exceeds the highs of the last bull/bear). We are over due for a 10-20% correction which could lead to a bear market (underperformance for the next decade as Goldman Sachs suggested). My suggested catalyst will be rising inflation due to Trump's policies followed by the fed raising interest rates and Trump firing Powell which will lead to a market collapse.
Ahhaha everything goes up and it never going to stop.. right? Sven is one of the greatest in YT. He has nothing to proof, you don't like him? Go to watch other YT with clickbait videos about Nvidia and Metaverse 🤣
@@javiervazquez9591 i like him, but he is very delusional for this year. He is calling something "wrong and expensive" from late 2023.. hard life for stock pickers
@@javiervazquez9591 nah just be consistent also with btc, he also lost that train. He lost so many trains during this 2 years, but hey "value stock picker" is dead from ages. He need to sell you the course.
Buffett claims that he would get an annual return of 50% by investing in sub 1B MCAP companies if he had to start again as a "small" investor i.e. < 1M in invested capital... I believe he is right about that. What is your take on this and how would you approach this "Buffett Challenge"?
Thank you for the video sven! Im happy to hear comments and media that this time is different. Nobody got rich over time by herd mentality. You get rich by disagreeing with consensus, especially extreme pessimism because then all bad things are priced into the stocks. "Abnormally good or abnormally bad conditions do not last forever" - Benjamin Graham
US public debt $5 Trillion in 2,000. US public debt in 2024, $35 Trillion, up 7x in debt expansion only. Debt bubble? The Dow has been 18 ounces of gold, same as 1929, since 2017, every year, zero gains in honest measures.
Oil consumption ath ,electricty ath and set to spike with ai , more data center ev solar panels chips plus now space rockets,we are consuming resources like there is no tomorrow unlike the past century ,the "bubble" you solve it by increasing inflation to not default look at turkey people lost value of their currency but the country still runs and everyone is working ,so until you have people that sit at home watching tv and doing nothing you cant say we are at a recession
🗽 It is really insane: Consumer staples are known to be defensive... the annual performance in EUR has been slightly negative for Europes Consumer Staples so far, while the MSCI World in EUR (TR) is at +32% and gold at +42%. This shows how extremely weak these defensive equity sectors have been in Europe this year, despite the war. The german MDAX (TR) is also slightly negative over 1 year -- keyword green german deindustrialization. .
By the way, Dow 18 ounces of gold in 1929 and 2024. Zero gain in honest measures. Only a gain in dishonest IOUs. Surprise, income taxes go up, up, up using IOUs creating a monster runaway government waging world wars. We need less government and more productive people creating honest real wealth, thus your excellent show, VALUE investing. Yes. VALUE. REAL STUFF.
Gold price in 1980: $850, Today: $2,700 (217% nominal gain over 40 years). Dow Jones in 1980: 850, Today: 41,000 (4,723% nominal gain over 40 years). The gains you mention are due to gold prices being depressed by the Gold Standard and then adjusting in the 1970's. Since then, gold and stocks have performed very differently. The Dow to Gold ratio would not capture dividend reinvesting and those being compounded either.
Sven, thank you very much for producing and posting these videos. I hope they keep the viewers from making stupid moves or at least make them think about the risks involved in the stock market speculation . The US Stock Market was overvalued 25 years ago and the Japanese stock market (Nikkei index) was overvalued 40 years ago. Nevertheless both markets continued to run for a number of years after the gross over evaluation was noted. No doubt that at some point in the future, the US Stock Market will tank and most likely repeat the Japanese market trajectory. Just knowing this doesn't help. Timing is everything. The good news is that due to the mechanics of the nearing US market downfall, there will be sufficient time to reallocate funds. I think we are coming closer to that moment. We are OK, while the world's money keeps flowing to the United States stock market. I think it will be very difficult to miss the point where money starts going to places like China. And that will start the positive feedback loop of withdrawing funds from the US.
People just ignore the fact that USA has become world leader in almost every industry and yet they compare it to 1950s. Yes this time is different and it has been different for last 44 years, people who say that this words are not true are delusional because they ignored the last 44 years.
May be, may be is not a market bubble and is an hiperinflation begining process. I know about inflation, but all of you in Europe and EEUU don't have it in your worldview. I have lived two, you none. They start very slowly
"This time is different! High margin businesses!" A PE of 30 means 33 years for the company to earn back your investment, PE of above 100 means more than 100 years for the company earn back your investment. Ofc growth need to be factored in, but can it grow like this rate?😊🤭
I want to see portfolio with ALL THE SHORT POSITIONS. Put money where your mouth is. Check the amount of Money and M2 printed during covid times, where does the money go to? The goddamn market. Never short against USA
@Value-Investing that is exactly my point. I think that in the last decades, there might have been a shift. In the past, some money went to the stock market and most- did not. The markets were an idea- an option. Today, almost everyone are farmiliar with the concept that the snp500 goes up in the long run, and more importantly- every one this decade or so, are working for companies, and let instatitions take care of pension money(we just give away part of our paycheck every mounth). Those instatitions have more money coming in than ever before and it keeps on coming. So, correction, yes. But how can we have a crash when those instatiotions have more money to spend every day, and the defult became the snp500. They cant go out of the markets, because money keeps flowing as part of pension provisions, like never before
Sven, maybe your bubble point may have been better received if you had presented as a reverse crash, and focused more in the 60s than the 70s. It's become normal to make comparisons between today and the 70s, but your graph clearly showed the real crash spread all over the 60s. You just moved too quickly when starting the video, and in fact should've continue with the original presentation inflation adjusted. Thus, the bubble crash financial influencers love to warn us about may not be noticeable, yet still real. The 60s was a soft landing, the type everybody prefers over a sudden crash, but it dragged on for a decade. It was like the 30s, but smooth and nobody cared because stocks were much less important than today, plenty of people back then had personal memories of times when stocks were an important business and ended up in the great depression. That generation had to die and let new and unexperienced people to go back to investing, and move the USA from industrial focus to financial one.
I measure the super bubble from June 1932, Dow $42, two ounces of gold. Now $42,000, up 1000x in IOUs, not in gold. We could all live in 50% less, doubling up, three generation families. Some would enjoy this, some not.
Good reminder of current market risk. Interest has really decreased over time if we look back to ancient Babylonia around 3000 BC where interest was whopping 33%. Note however, debt seems to have been then abolished with the new ruler (smashing the clay tablets). So perhaps that makes the 33% a fair interest...? (See first chapter of "The Price of Time" book.) Anyway, since around early 1700s interest has been fluctuating around 3-5% -- which is around the current level. So this time is no different (except perhaps for smashing the clay tablets).
Funny how you choose specifically july 1982 as your month for comparison. In july 1982 stocks was lower than before the 1929-1932 Great Depression, adjusted for inflation. You scew your data to an extend to where your analysis is useless just to prove a point. Your PhD must be very theoretical rather than empirical.
Passive 401k investors piling in to equities, cheap money, and stratospheric valuations....40 year bull run. I keep wondering how or when musical chairs stop. Inflation kills consumer demand driving PE ratios to 100? Mass layoffs? Some combination?
The only relevant analysis at this point is how long can they keep the printing press going. Until then, assets will continue to inflate as we see here. When they can’t, the market will probably be cooked for a generation.
We still have a lot of people buying shitcoins and making money with them... If this is not a sign of a financial bubble i don't know what is. Not that I care a lot about it but after a 2022 where things started to become "reasonable" we are back in financial euphoria once again, it seems like a neverending story... Thanks for the book suggestion Sven, added to my wishlist.
Reading the ‘perma bear’ comments is a solid contrarian indicator. The professor is stating that you are accepting elevated risk for diminished returns going forward at these prices. There are some massive risk below the financial surface and position yourself appropriately.
You've been screaming bubble for a while now buddy... Think of it this way, the p/e ratio that was considered high in the past is no longer relevant in today's markets. Anyone with a cellphone can become an investor, therefore more money is pouring into the market today than it has ever in the past. There will be pullbacks, but people are not going to stop investing.
4:19 This is scary. But you want to know what is even scarier? If the PE multiple contracts that much and earning ALSO go down, then at a multiple of 8 and earnings contraction you could see 1000. That seems ludicrous, but is within the realm of possibilities.
![[DRAGON BALL LEGENDS REVEALS ＆ STUFF] LEGENDS FESTIVAL 2024 Special Edition Part 1](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/mV5bGIswTtQ/mqdefault.jpg)
*Your explanations are clear and straight forward It's always a honor to have you here as a mentor, I appreciate you for the time being spent to educate us financially. Regardless of how bad it gets the economy, I still makeover $28K every single week. I truly value Bianca, and her helpful guides.*
If you don't find a means of multiplying your income you will wake up one day to realize you didn't plan..
Since working with Bianca Lindsey, She transformed my investment strategy, my stock portfolio keeps increasing, turning a $20,000 investment into $478,000 in less than a year. Her insights on market trends and stock selection have been invaluable. If you’re looking to boost your investments, she’s the one to trust!
I value your perspective and content .Bitcoin is on its way to breaking records, getting closer to hitting new high prices, showing that it's gaining more value and could go even higher than we've seen before. This could mean great things for people looking to invest, suggesting now might be a good time to get involved before it jumps even higher .
She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name,
Biancalind60💯..that's it
The US economy is already in recession. Any rate cut will not ignite inflation. The banks will tighten even more, all consumer and corporate credit lending. This is the beginning of a deflationary period for your assets. Stocks markets will decline, and stock values disappear in a blink of the eye. Businesses will begin layoffs in earnest which will soon be reflected in the unemployment rate and unemployment claims, to further solidify the recession. In fact, when the FED cut rates in Sept, it will signify that the Titanic is going under, and it will suck everything down. Retail and housing sales will truly decline as consumer hold off their purchases. The inverted yield curve will then turn positive, but remember, certain assets like stocks and Crypto’s acts as a hedge. Long & short-term trading is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility. I have managed to grow a nest egg of around 130k to a decent 532k in the space of a few months... I'm especially grateful to Laura Brockman, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
SHE IS ON TELE GRAM...
@LauraBrockman
One thing I know for certain is crypto is here to stay, the only thing that leaves is the people who don't manage their risk. Manage that, or the market will manage it for you. With the right strategies you will survive.
Thank you…. I have searched her up Google I think I am satisfied with her experience.
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
*Amazing video, you work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires*
wow this awesome 👏 I'm 47 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
It's Esther A Berg doing, she's changed my life.
I do know Ms. Esther A Berg , I also have even become successful....
After I raised up to 325k trading with her I bought a new House and a car here in the states 🇺🇸🇺🇸 also paid for my son's surgery (Oscar). Glory to God.shalom.
Good day all👍🏻 from Australia 🇦🇺. I have read a lot of posts that people are very happy with the financial guidance she is giving them ! What way can I get to her exactly ?
With all of the current events, what is the best approach to profit from the present market? I'm still debating diversifying my $400k stock portfolio to obtain some profits while minimizing risk.
While the current market offers short-term profit potential, it's crucial to note that executing such a strategy requires expertise and skill.
Working with a financial advisor has been the game-changer for me. They provided invaluable insights and tailored strategies that aligned perfectly with my risk tolerance and financial objectives. With their support, I've seen significant growth in my investments and gained confidence in my financial future.
I could really use the expertise of this advsors
Her name is ‘Marissa Lynn Babula’. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I’ve just looked up her full name on my browser and found her webpage, very much appreciate this
How do most of you guys still balance life, even with the downturn of the economy and ever increasing life standards
Well, I picked the challenge to put my finances in order. Then I invested in stocks and Digital marketing through the assistance of my discretionary fund manager.
Having a discussion with financial advisors is highly recommended for adjusting your portfolio.
The reality is that you can't do it without a professional guidance. Then with time You can understand the full market dynamics.
Ms. Claudia Brandon is really a good investment advisor. I was privileged to attend some of her seminars. That's how I started and it has been a good run of both knowledge and trade. I recommend.
The very first time My wife and I tried, we invested $1000, we received $7500. That really helped us a lot to pay up our bills.
80% stocks 20% cash. I plan to take advantage of the s&p 500 as leading indicators predict above 10% rise by this year, my only issue is how to properly allocate a 6-figure st0ck/bond portf0lio for substantial gains at minimum risk of inflation.
I believe that diversifying your invest-ments is the safest way to handle it. One way to lessen the effects of a markt crisis is to distribute invest-ments over a variety of asset classes, such as international equities, bonds, and real estate. It's also critical to look for exprt advice.
Certain Mag 7 companies are rumoured to be overvalued and might cause a market correction, I’d suggest you go with a managed portf0lio, but even those don’t perform so well, so it’s best you reach out to a proper fiduciary to guide you, that’s what works for my spouse and I. We've made over 80% capital growth minus dividends.
I fired mine 2 yrs ago. now I am beginning to see the benefits, how do I get one? Considering your point I won’t want to get into a bubble. Can you recommend any?
Sure, the likes of the popular “Victoria Louisa Saylor" does a good job. Just look up the name, you’d find details on the web to set up an appointment as she offers free consultations for Veterans like yourself.
Thank you for sharing, I must say, Victoria appears to be quite knowledgeable. After coming across her web page, I went through her resume and it was quite impressive. I reached out and scheduled a call
Not sure if it's a bubble. But I guarantee that fairly often there is a crash or major downturn. You can't prevent it, the market will go down alot in the future. Black swan or just profit taking, crash will show up
Sven, can you do an analysis on Chinese e commerce companies like PDD or JD? Where would they fit on the value quadrant
thanks for suggesting!
Do dooms day videos make you more money Sven?
I am having fun making videos:-) Watch those you like, but it is also good to discuss the risks!
@@Value-Investing Unfortunately, even if know there is bubble, we can't sell everything and sit on sideline. If investor is cautious all the time no matter it is bubble or not can make good money. there are some stocks which went up by 10% while market was crashing in 2008.
Sven donates the YT money, so hopefully they do make more money to support the school
@@vasimpatel8454 invest in value
it does. no one cares when a RUclipsr says its a bull run. but a dooms day, millions of hit. Fact of the matter is SnP is almost 6K now. those who invested are happy
I can bet even this guy have been bull along, just making random bear scenario
Hi Sven, what do you think about Canada Goose stock? It was trading like a tech stock a few years back at 60$ a share and 100 PE. The revenue and other numbers have only improved since then, but the price tumbled to a mere 13$ a share. With the winter season coming, and a particularly cold one at that, do you think there may be a chance for a "relative" bargain here? Thanks!
You have just illustrated why this market is extremely hard to call at this point. Nothing operates like it used to do. Every time the market drops, The Fed and government moves in with stimulus. We all know the stock market will have another huge bust at some point, then another round of stimulus to re-inflate it. All you can do is try to buy good stocks, ride the upswell, wait for the next bust, then the re-inflation from stimulus.
Well, what makes me an outlier I guess! I am 57 year-old English immigrant, with zero interest in tech or stocks, and yet I am 110% committed to Bitcoin. I would describe myself as an extreme conservative/libertarian. I have been involved in UK politics for some time, and the main thing that drove me to study Bitcoin and ultimately recognise its value to Humanity was the threat posed by an over-weening government, first in the UK and lately in the US also. I regard the CBDC as the final brick in the wall of the totalitarian prison the world's governments are building for us. And Bitcoin is the ultimate defence against a tyrannical government.r.....I've been engaged in active trading and managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Sandy Barclays, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.
Sandy Barclays program is widely available online..
Job will pay your bills, business will make you rich but investment makes and keeps you wealthy even till the future.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Best signal provider in the market. Knowledgeable, level headed no loss like some other traders who recently jumped on the bandwagon.
Sandy Barclays approaches trading in a completely unique way. I'm puzzled by her methods. She just seems to have an innate understanding of this trading world.
Question: Will quantitative easing help govt to avoid recession? Since 2008, every time there is a fear of recession, govt prints more money to ease of the tension. How long can this parameter play well for govt? I am looking forward to a well researched ans
You say it’s a bubble but it all makes total sense when you consider inflation, and the fiscal deficit every government is running which makes fixed income securities hugely risky!
It may look like a bubble and PE's are high, but the S&P chart over long periods resembles a Compounding Curve as it should!
In a century we went from horses to space crafts.... so there's nothing wrong with that cagr.
The P/E in the SPX is dominated by the MAG7 (Big Tech).... here is the assumption, that the growth will be stable and high. If you reduce a bit the MAG7, the P/E is not that high. So its important to serch for value and not only buy the index.
.
Yes, Sven should use a logarithmic chart….
@@dinosgurawell the period we went from horses to space craft far underperformed the period being discussed in this video
Which is where we went from a Nordic level society in inequality to the most unequal society in US history, including the gilded age
And it's predominantly driven by the Fed, and financial deregulation
The market doesn't need to crash when the underlined currency is crashing.
So true. The very real reason why stock market is doing so well. Zimbabwe, here we come.
Is it possible more people are invested than ever?
divide the world to the number of people, more businesses etc...
@@Value-Investingand also the internet. It is so easy to invest nowadays, someone in the most exotic countries can now invest in US stocks for example. This was unthinkable some decades ago, where it was very difficult for people outside America to invest in american stocks and that makes stocks a scarce product, driving the prices high.
Hi, When are you going to do a detailed analysis of Banco Millennium BCP BCP-LS? By my analysis the share has a potential for rising greater than 80% by 2027, do you agree with me?
Different world now sven, technology and access to markets, plus quantitative easing/ inflation. New normal
"this time is different" dangerous words
@jaimeestrada5527 could say that about anything though and lose out on lots of gains
yes, this time it might be different!
@@Value-Investing😂😂😂
@@Value-Investing
I expect this scenario:
Earnings keep growing at a double digits, but prices will go nowhere.
Result? In 7-10y we will have a P/E of 10-12 at around 6000/7000 points
Comparing the 70's and 80's PEs when the S&P was dominated by low margin and cyclical businesses like oil companies or one time buy purchase companies which were proud of the reliability of their products like the automakers is a completely different landscape than today's industry. On this day and age, S&P is dominated by high margin software businesses with the holy grail of continuous suscription revenues and programmed obsolescence. You cannot expect the PEs to stay the same as the 80s, the world has changed! ofcourse the fundamentals in agregate may not support these PEs but it is a bit of a head scratcher that you expect the same PEs of a time with less business development overall.
Let's see what happens to Google when chrome sold.
“This time is different”
@@Videodoro yeah
Its entropy, nowdays "progress" grown faster than people consciousness. Financial markets are unpredictable due to psicological human beahviour so, when Money doesnt spread in different hands social condition decay and mean to put Money on business.
I think the bond market and interest rates from the 80’s to present day has played a large part in this run. Do you think interest rates will continue to go down going forward, stay the same, or increase? We are toward the inflection of the long term debt cycle, buckle up.
Thanks for discussing my comment 😊
The inflated PE ratio is mostly from big tech companies and funnily enough those companies are the most recession resistant.
Unless you are talking about literal armageddon, nuclear war, global blackout or the end of internet. But in this case you losing your life savings will be the least of your worries.
TINA, het risico op inflatie lijkt mij hoger dan het risico op de beurs.
Hi Sven please review HDSN Hudson Technologies. Interesting business with low debt and strong cashflow. Margins are compressing. Would love your opinion. Thank you.
Hi Sven, let's go back to the basics, why do you think that the PE ratio is a good metric to look at? It seems to me that there are more people financially literate willing to put money (or gamble) in the stock market these days, and that's what's driving the PE ratios. My question is, will this revert or should we get used to higher ratios?
at the end it is about comparing to other opportunities too!
Whether I die next week or 20 years from now, I still eat today. That's how I approach investing. The only thing I change is what I eat/invest in.
Excellent. 100% Agreed.
Thank you for the video and your insightful review it is difficult to see at the end what you're showing because you added advertisement slides to the last five minutes of the presentation
you know about log scale right... it makes it much less impressive, also you could adjust returns for inflation on the period....
Totally agree but does the historical norm counts or there are factors post-80s that determine higher allocations to US equities compared to pre-80s? Globalization of financial markets, reduction of total number of companies, TINA phenomena...
Take a look at Argentina stonk MERVAL. Forever bubble. Why? Peso ARS.
Are you 100% sure that the elephant 🐘 in the room is not the USD?
Are you sure that the Y axis (USD) is the perfect freeze hipótesis for every economic theorem?
The problem is inflation. Prior to 1973 we were on a gold standard, Much of the gains are nominal and disappear when you adjust for the gold price. For instance the price of gold in 1973 was $35 USD, and over the last 50 years it has gone up to $2700 today all due to increasing the amount of USD currency units into the system increasing the "nominal" price of assets, goods and services.
I think that the risk of such a video is, that people might consider to stop dollar cost averaging into a low cost ETF that is well diversified. Even though the point of the dollar-cost-average strategy is to keep thinking out of the buying. You automatically buy more if the price would go lower, while you also participate if the market stays over valued until even valuation catches up. (I'm not qualified to give financial advice, it's just my thoughts)
Pls also say is the top 20 companies that boosted,,,like the googles, apple Microsoft, Tesla , chips,,,,,not the majority!
False. look at quality consumer staples and industrials! P/E about 25 or 30, for companies growing at 4% a year
Can you show inflation adjusted next time? Appreciate the videos
PE is misleading, Sven check PEG and problem is solved
He won't, he's stuck in the the 90s to early 2000s of market mentality. He's going to use fancy models to show that he has a PhD while ignoring the glaring truth in front of us. The market of today doesn't care about P/E ratio, younger and younger people are putting their money in the market and trading isn't controlled only by Wall Street anymore.
These insane P/E ratios of top stocks are basically just a representation of HUGE expectations for AI, these stocks values are driven by imagination, P/E is almost irrelevant for Tesla, NVIDIA, etc...
There is nothing insane about it, cause it isn’t just about AI.
Forward P/E of 21/22, slightly high, nothing near bubble territory
@@Deepfknvalue "Tesla (TSLA) Forward PE Ratio : 108.63 (As of Nov. 23, 2024)", but trillions are coming with FSD and robots, so nothing to worry about!
@@viktorianas im talkin about the whole market buddy.. even if tesla crashes 50% thats only like a 2% decline in the market given the weight
@ equal weighted pe is only at 16x as well.. never in mankind history have we seen the growths and margins parallel to Nvidia either
The stock market is where patience meets opportunity; long-term growth comes from consistent action.
Consistency in investing is crucial for long-term success, especially in the stock market.
I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders
Oh, really? I have never thought of that as an option. Can I ask who it is you've been working with? I bet I could use some help myself.
My CFA NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further... She has many years of experience and is a valuable resource for anyone looking to navigate the financial market..
Thank you for saving me hours of back and forth investigation into the markets. I simply copied and pasted her full name into my browser, and her website came up first in search results. She looks flawless.
Investments are the roots of financial security; the deeper they grow, the stronger your future will be."
The deeper your investment roots, the stronger your financial security will be in the future.
Exactly! With my adviser, I’ve cultivated deep investment roots, strengthening my financial security for the future.
I would love an introduction to an adviser who can help me strengthen my financial roots.
My CFA NICOLE ANASTASIA PLUMLEE a renowned figure in her line of work. I recommend researching her credentials further.
Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up and wrote her.
Follow the benner cycle , it is the most accurate predictor of buy and sell indicator
When one considers that gold has had an 86% return in the last 5 years, a 92% percent return for the SP500 doesn't seem that far-fetched.
Great video. I'm asking myself for a long time how the stock market is influenced by demographics. With the 80s the boomer generation started their career and paid into pension funds which are a powerful influence on the market. How will markets react when all these boomers and pension funds start to sell their assets to finance the retirement?
You get Japan
@tamanousJP I'm invested in a Japanese cementary and undertaker small cap company.
Hi Sven. The stock market took 120 years to build up dignity and it has all been lost these last 4 years
More people are invested in the market, maybe lower yield from the stock market is the new normal. Look at housing costs in parts of the world, many are indebted for life to have somewhere to live. Likely the market will drop 50% within ten years but not now since we are in a boom cycle.
If you exclude the big ships like Nvidia, Apple, Microsoft…the broad market does look fairly valued.
thanks for sharing!
Nvidia isn't actually overvalued. Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft though... yeah they might be a bit overvalued.
Which means you agree with him. Big ships = overvalued. Rest = fair valued. Where is the upside?
@@erichong4786 of course Nvidia is overvalued. and eventually it will crash
Perm bear making people missing out on gains as usual lmfao
thanks for sharing!
Nobody got rich over time by following the sheep herd
@@thomaskismul8541 keep underperforming lmfao
Sure the market is expensive "as a market" but to the individual stock buyer, is this a big issue?
Have you some insights on which stocks actually drive this growth? I'm thinking Tesla and Nvidia drive much of the exhuberance, but Google and Amazon seem reasonable to me.
Society has finally woken up to the value of a business. A profitable business is a money tree. It's worth more than 5 times earnings. 15x makes sense. 30x does not make a lot of sense. The United States has been, is, and will always be a capitalist society. It's the most innovative society on the planet. As long as US companies continue to innovate, all will benefit. If a time comes when people no longer desire such innovation (who really wants AI?) all will come crashing down. Be careful. Invest wisely. Use stop losses. Live life!
it's won't always be a capitalist society. well, unless it's capitalist until the end. capitalism will not last forever and nation-states/empires will not last forever. capitalism will end, hopefully sooner than later. we don't all benefit from us companies. the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.
Sven, you showed that the lowest PE ratio was in 1979 in recent times. That year loosely coincides with the elimination of defined benefit pensions by companies in the USA and 401k and Roth became the vehicles of choice for retirement savings. This resulted in the rise of private investment managers and regular people were more and more invested in stocks and derivatives like mutual funds and ETF’s. Is it possible that this higher demand for investment vehicles pushed and still pushes the valuation higher, above pre-1980’s + levels?
You can't just look at the PE ratio, you have to look at PEG ratio with takes into account growth of earnings! Growth of earning now is much higher than the growth in the 1980s..
This is true. What is also true is that the growth rate changes when there is an economic downturn. This acts as a negative multiple in the opposite direction. As they say, trees don’t grow to space, and growth does not continue get bigger and bigger.
Cigar butt investing is the methodology you follow, which you missed a lot of great business in decades
it's okay to miss businesses. don't give in to FOMO. invest in value that you understand.
@@pongop it is Not OK.
It's not a bubble.
In the past, a few investors like Buffett achieved enormous returns, but today many people use ETFs with savings plans and have very quick access to information.
This means that many are effectively taking away returns from people like Buffett.
As a result, it’s no longer as easy for Buffett to make "easy money."
Buffett now has to settle for much lower returns because he has to share with millions of small investors who no longer face the disadvantage of high bank fees.
They all have online access with low fees.
These small investors are happy with, for example, a 5% return.
5% is better than nothing.
5% is not a bubble; it's just half of 10%-so what?
I don't think investors understand the earnings yield! They just see things going up!
there might even be an index fund bubble
People simply investing their money into an ETF without knowing anything is the bubble.
IMHO - Wall St. is one thing and the High Street is another thing. The kind of companies that are in the stock market eg Microsoft, Amz, Uber etc are amazing and doing things that companies just did'nt do in the past. If Microsoft wants to double its earnings it just needs to sell more software which has almost zero marginal cost. If US Steel wanted to sell more steel there are large marginal costs in shipping steel around the place. Maybe the market is not over-valued maybe the market is actually fairly valued because the kind of companies in the stock market is different then the past? Maybe this time it different Sven?
Stocks are NOT up in gold or silver. Stocks are only up in IOUs. It is an IOU debt bubble, not honest price increases.
So if we’re in a bubble how do we invest our millions ?
Buffett is in Treasuries, so you see!
Put $1M in the S&P, $1M in treasuries, and $1M in real estate.
the way I see it is that we gotta play the game with the rules that drive the market at any one cicle. Momentum has been the name of the game for the last 2 years. Value plays are just starting to break out, so that might be the place to be now.
I need to preserve wealth not be a hero and shoot for billionaire status.
@@parkerbohnn I wish you accomplish that :) all the best
If you include in the calculations the Inflation and the content of the index(as companies), you will found out that 30 PE is not that insane number.
I am not saying it is normal, but it definitely is not exuberant.
I agree with your premise, however using the same chart (I tried to cut and paste it but couldn't), I believe we have been in a bull market since either 2009 or 2014 (depending on whether you use the bottom of the last bear market or when the present bull market exceeds the highs of the last bull/bear). We are over due for a 10-20% correction which could lead to a bear market (underperformance for the next decade as Goldman Sachs suggested). My suggested catalyst will be rising inflation due to Trump's policies followed by the fed raising interest rates and Trump firing Powell which will lead to a market collapse.
What if you dont see a deflationary crash but an inflationary crash? 😮
Put Evvty on your risk reward chart please.
how many videos you wanna keep do sven? 7 of 10 are doom and crash hahahaha
He’s a fear mongering perma bear who buys failing companies at 10 times earnings so he can feel righteous lol Would not expect anything more from him.
Ahhaha everything goes up and it never going to stop.. right? Sven is one of the greatest in YT. He has nothing to proof, you don't like him? Go to watch other YT with clickbait videos about Nvidia and Metaverse 🤣
@@javiervazquez9591 i like him, but he is very delusional for this year. He is calling something "wrong and expensive" from late 2023.. hard life for stock pickers
@@javiervazquez9591 nah just be consistent also with btc, he also lost that train. He lost so many trains during this 2 years, but hey "value stock picker" is dead from ages. He need to sell you the course.
Buffett claims that he would get an annual return of 50% by investing in sub 1B MCAP companies if he had to start again as a "small" investor i.e. < 1M in invested capital... I believe he is right about that. What is your take on this and how would you approach this "Buffett Challenge"?
I have a 50% section on my research platform, I think 2 out of 4 from last year actually did it :-) and the third is close!
Thank you for the video sven! Im happy to hear comments and media that this time is different. Nobody got rich over time by herd mentality. You get rich by disagreeing with consensus, especially extreme pessimism because then all bad things are priced into the stocks. "Abnormally good or abnormally bad conditions do not last forever" - Benjamin Graham
Is okay to get outperformed by the index.
If the US government takes on austerity measures, we could see a crash.
US public debt $5 Trillion in 2,000. US public debt in 2024, $35 Trillion, up 7x in debt expansion only. Debt bubble? The Dow has been 18 ounces of gold, same as 1929, since 2017, every year, zero gains in honest measures.
Oil consumption ath ,electricty ath and set to spike with ai , more data center ev solar panels chips plus now space rockets,we are consuming resources like there is no tomorrow unlike the past century ,the "bubble" you solve it by increasing inflation to not default look at turkey people lost value of their currency but the country still runs and everyone is working ,so until you have people that sit at home watching tv and doing nothing you cant say we are at a recession
🗽 It is really insane:
Consumer staples are known to be defensive... the annual performance in EUR has been slightly negative for Europes Consumer Staples so far, while the MSCI World in EUR (TR) is at +32% and gold at +42%. This shows how extremely weak these defensive equity sectors have been in Europe this year, despite the war. The german MDAX (TR) is also slightly negative over 1 year -- keyword green german deindustrialization.
.
We have winner-takes-it-all business models which did not exist until 2000s, support from Central Banks and passive investing into index funds...
By the way, Dow 18 ounces of gold in 1929 and 2024. Zero gain in honest measures. Only a gain in dishonest IOUs. Surprise, income taxes go up, up, up using IOUs creating a monster runaway government waging world wars. We need less government and more productive people creating honest real wealth, thus your excellent show, VALUE investing. Yes. VALUE. REAL STUFF.
Gold price in 1980: $850, Today: $2,700 (217% nominal gain over 40 years). Dow Jones in 1980: 850, Today: 41,000 (4,723% nominal gain over 40 years). The gains you mention are due to gold prices being depressed by the Gold Standard and then adjusting in the 1970's. Since then, gold and stocks have performed very differently. The Dow to Gold ratio would not capture dividend reinvesting and those being compounded either.
trailing PE means nothing, you need to look at Forward multiples.
Sven, thank you very much for producing and posting these videos. I hope they keep the viewers from making stupid moves or at least make them think about the risks involved in the stock market speculation .
The US Stock Market was overvalued 25 years ago and the Japanese stock market (Nikkei index) was overvalued 40 years ago. Nevertheless both markets continued to run for a number of years after the gross over evaluation was noted.
No doubt that at some point in the future, the US Stock Market will tank and most likely repeat the Japanese market trajectory. Just knowing this doesn't help. Timing is everything. The good news is that due to the mechanics of the nearing US market downfall, there will be sufficient time to reallocate funds. I think we are coming closer to that moment.
We are OK, while the world's money keeps flowing to the United States stock market. I think it will be very difficult to miss the point where money starts going to places like China. And that will start the positive feedback loop of withdrawing funds from the US.
Cheap valuation buy all in
People just ignore the fact that USA has become world leader in almost every industry and yet they compare it to 1950s.
Yes this time is different and it has been different for last 44 years, people who say that this words are not true are delusional because they ignored the last 44 years.
thanks for sharing!
u cant use p/e ratio from old times to now because the money supply is not the same
Of course you can. The stock prices and earnings go up with inflation. If anything the debt levels are higher then ever.
so earning LESS per invested $1 with MORE money supply is better for you? 🤡
@@CitizenOK money devaluate so need higher p/e
@@shabpnd481 it is a "ratio" so it should not be affected by the amount of money available. Sorry, but what you are saying makes no sense.
@@shabpnd481 earnings and prices are adjusting with inflation- DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT I AM SAYING???
May be, may be is not a market bubble and is an hiperinflation begining process.
I know about inflation, but all of you in Europe and EEUU don't have it in your worldview.
I have lived two, you none. They start very slowly
Sven great ideas
S and p is a bubble- Wrong
Short Tesla- WTF
Sell all Berkshire Hathaway- crazy
Stick to lecturing or whatever you do for a day job.
thanks for commenting!
Mr. Doomer Admit you have been wrong about the stock market bubble, you said 4 years ago we were in a bubble. (Your oldest Video)
Yes, it's a 40+ year bubble and we're still in it. Markets always crash.
1980s is when congress changed law to have retirement funds buy stocks in usa
PE is a shit metric, i bought MU in 2018 at a cheap "6 PE" and was left bag holding for years
"This time is different! High margin businesses!" A PE of 30 means 33 years for the company to earn back your investment, PE of above 100 means more than 100 years for the company earn back your investment. Ofc growth need to be factored in, but can it grow like this rate?😊🤭
Pe 30 needs growth of more than 30% to justify in normal world
@Value-Investing yeah I meant growth matching that
I want to see portfolio with ALL THE SHORT POSITIONS. Put money where your mouth is. Check the amount of Money and M2 printed during covid times, where does the money go to? The goddamn market. Never short against USA
the usa and europe are falling
Dont you think because capital markets became the difult place to put all your money (pension etc), the money just keeps flowing?
money flows but what when it wants out?
@Value-Investing that is exactly my point. I think that in the last decades, there might have been a shift.
In the past, some money went to the stock market and most- did not. The markets were an idea- an option.
Today, almost everyone are farmiliar with the concept that the snp500 goes up in the long run, and more importantly- every one this decade or so, are working for companies, and let instatitions take care of pension money(we just give away part of our paycheck every mounth). Those instatitions have more money coming in than ever before and it keeps on coming.
So, correction, yes. But how can we have a crash when those instatiotions have more money to spend every day, and the defult became the snp500. They cant go out of the markets, because money keeps flowing as part of pension provisions, like never before
You are missing one important factor from your analysis which cannot be quantified. People are irrational
Sven, maybe your bubble point may have been better received if you had presented as a reverse crash, and focused more in the 60s than the 70s. It's become normal to make comparisons between today and the 70s, but your graph clearly showed the real crash spread all over the 60s. You just moved too quickly when starting the video, and in fact should've continue with the original presentation inflation adjusted.
Thus, the bubble crash financial influencers love to warn us about may not be noticeable, yet still real. The 60s was a soft landing, the type everybody prefers over a sudden crash, but it dragged on for a decade. It was like the 30s, but smooth and nobody cared because stocks were much less important than today, plenty of people back then had personal memories of times when stocks were an important business and ended up in the great depression. That generation had to die and let new and unexperienced people to go back to investing, and move the USA from industrial focus to financial one.
I measure the super bubble from June 1932, Dow $42, two ounces of gold. Now $42,000, up 1000x in IOUs, not in gold. We could all live in 50% less, doubling up, three generation families. Some would enjoy this, some not.
good point!
The weekly crash video 😊
Good reminder of current market risk. Interest has really decreased over time if we look back to ancient Babylonia around 3000 BC where interest was whopping 33%. Note however, debt seems to have been then abolished with the new ruler (smashing the clay tablets). So perhaps that makes the 33% a fair interest...? (See first chapter of "The Price of Time" book.) Anyway, since around early 1700s interest has been fluctuating around 3-5% -- which is around the current level. So this time is no different (except perhaps for smashing the clay tablets).
interest works in cycles, the market is pricing in 2%, not 5%, big difference!
Funny how you choose specifically july 1982 as your month for comparison. In july 1982 stocks was lower than before the 1929-1932 Great Depression, adjusted for inflation. You scew your data to an extend to where your analysis is useless just to prove a point. Your PhD must be very theoretical rather than empirical.
I take the end of the previous bear market and the date when the new bull started :-) It is just how it was :-)
is not a bubble is just an expansion of the money supply
higher money supply means lower interest rates, right? If central banks hike rates and do quant. tightening, that reduces money supply.
The money printing ended a while back.
@@eco-enjoyer still 8 trillion already exist it cant just vaporize into the air
@@960john higher interest rates because can use yield trade exploit like bitcoin pump by Michael Saylor
Passive 401k investors piling in to equities, cheap money, and stratospheric valuations....40 year bull run. I keep wondering how or when musical chairs stop. Inflation kills consumer demand driving PE ratios to 100? Mass layoffs? Some combination?
dude there is no bubble. the bubble is in your head.
The only relevant analysis at this point is how long can they keep the printing press going. Until then, assets will continue to inflate as we see here. When they can’t, the market will probably be cooked for a generation.
I like your maths, you're getting better
:-)
We still have a lot of people buying shitcoins and making money with them... If this is not a sign of a financial bubble i don't know what is. Not that I care a lot about it but after a 2022 where things started to become "reasonable" we are back in financial euphoria once again, it seems like a neverending story... Thanks for the book suggestion Sven, added to my wishlist.
I would consider it as a result of the dropping of US dollar value to assets.
one of the reasons, plus an expansion in valuaiton!
Reading the ‘perma bear’ comments is a solid contrarian indicator. The professor is stating that you are accepting elevated risk for diminished returns going forward at these prices. There are some massive risk below the financial surface and position yourself appropriately.
thanks for sharing!
last night i had a dream you were analysing avocado producers, mb check that out and make my dream come true :)
You've been screaming bubble for a while now buddy... Think of it this way, the p/e ratio that was considered high in the past is no longer relevant in today's markets. Anyone with a cellphone can become an investor, therefore more money is pouring into the market today than it has ever in the past. There will be pullbacks, but people are not going to stop investing.
4:19 This is scary. But you want to know what is even scarier? If the PE multiple contracts that much and earning ALSO go down, then at a multiple of 8 and earnings contraction you could see 1000. That seems ludicrous, but is within the realm of possibilities.