Cecilia uses logic to destroy a minigame of chance
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- Опубликовано: 12 сен 2024
- CC unleashes her gambling skills to destroy the treasure chest minigame in Minish Cap
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Sources:
• 【ZELDA-Minish Cap】The ...
July 30, 2024
• 【Dishonored】I will bri...
June 24, 2024
Cecilia Immergreen:
/ @holoen_ceciliaimmergreen
#holoJustice #ceciliaimmergreen
This made me look up the game mechanics and it actually is just random, Cecilia just got incredibly lucky.
I expected her to use actual logic because I didn't know the game was that simple, but this was so much better.
Random number generators are never completely random.
I think she had a point.
@@molybdaen11 No, any RNG worth anything has a more complicated algorithm behind it than this. She got lucky. Otherwise her line of thinking would make the algorithm predictable enough that other people would've found out about it ages ago.
It's not rigged, you're right. I've tested with save states.
I needed to know how it works and I am so glad it turned out to be rng.
I had wondered if it might be rigged to have you fail a bunch and then "compensate" you after, but this is so much better.
Thanks for doing the work, both of you. 🙂
This is one of those moments that deserves to not only be clipped, but having a fan animation too.
I need this clip animated lol
Definitely. 😆
Just gamblwcore with her face on the stickman and the thw bird would work tbh
Jojo's Bizarre Adventure style where Ceci (in a fantastic link costume) gets tricked multiple times by the enemy stand user gambler but then gets back at the very end using her intelligence and great calculating ability.
She could win gacha pulls
"Right is always right"
Has the same energy as "Tails never fails"
or "put it all on 23,"
*it's almost like someone failed a head-or-tails throw 7 times in a row in a funger using that logic*
Is this a reference to cdawgva's fear and hunger thing?
@@boneatledI swear it always lands on tails, yet somehow when you actually pick tails it begins to land on heads.
Bart on paper rock scissors: Good ol rock!
Robot girl DECIMATES gambling with FACTS and LOGIC
Internet Historian voice: "You did it Ms Cecelia, you cracked the code"
The outcome is only logical
"Let's go gambling!!" 10
"I can't stop winning!" 20
"I can't stop winning!" 40
"I can't stop winning!" 80
"I can't stop winning!" 160
"I can't stop winning!" 320
"I can't stop winning!" 640
"NEVER TELL ME THE ODDS!" - Cecilla, Moments before dissaster
Odds!!! Dont tel me!
You seem familiar
Have you been commenting since 2013
That extreme boost in confidence makes this moment so great, lol.
wtf musst du nich battlerunden kommentieren?
@@hehexdxdxd Hahaha, immer cool, wenn man an ganz anderen Orten im Internet wiedererkannt wird.
Keine Sorge, die Battlerunden werden natürlich weiterhin kommentiert^^ aber ein paar Cecilia clips schaden ja auch nicht, lol.
Adding the probabilties made this even more satisfying. Most mems win gambling with the luck stat, but Ceci demolished this with logic. 😂
Unfortunately… it’s still luck. Which side wins is random, there is no order (atleast not one that can realistically be predicted ahead of time)
The really funny thing is that she was correct… for the wrong reasons.
Funny thing is, it actually _is_ a terrible business model
Assuming it's actually a 50% chance to be right, then the expected profit he can get from the game is 0, since he pays double for winning
In IRL gambling, if the prize is double the bet, the chance of winning is slightly less than 50%, because otherwise the house could not make profit
For example, in roulette, betting on a single color pays double on a win, but the chance of winning is ~47.4% in the US (~48.6% in Europe) because the 0 and 00 also exist
This is the only way to guarantee the house makes a profit, mathematically speaking
Hm... I kind of feel like the "double or nothing" mechanism tilts it in the house's favor. The first round, the odds are 50-50 and so is the payout. The second round, the payout is 2:1 in the player's favor, but to pass the second round, the player has to win two coin flips, giving the house a 3 in 4 chance of winning. The difference grows bigger each round.
@@Impacatus It actually changes nothing
The payout on the double or nothing isn't 2:1, it's 4:1, because you pay 10 to start, and can potentially win 40 after winning 2 coin flips, meaning you have a 25% chance to win, mathematically speaking, this still means the expected profit of the house is 0
@@Deathnotefan97 You're right. I made a mistake in the math.
But there's one other element to consider. In order to win, the player needs to win the coin flip AND they need to make the decision to stop. Our analysis has only focused on their odds of winning the flip. I'm not sure how to incorporate the strategic element of deciding when to stop, but I feel like it changes things in the house's favor. Correct me if I'm wrong.
EDIT: I guess I am. Since each subsequent round would have the same payoff it really makes no difference.
Arr we really speaking math because of Zelda Minish Cap? 😂. Not saying the game is bad but, it's just funny to see that from hiya boi goes gambling, we got a full ass very interesting conversation about it 🤣
It's a terrible model because the principal investment (10 rupees) is the most the player can ever lose in a single game.
The jackpot doubles in size but the buy-in is always 10. Shopkeeper is mathematically guaranteed to lose money over time.
That's some Princess Bride levels of logic.
Never go in against an atomaton when zenloss is on the line!
Rupees, not Zenni.
Truly, a dizzying intellect
@@animatrix1490 I haven't even gotten started!
@@animatrix1490 as dizzying as her spinning key.⚙️
Borlov: NOOO, YOU AREN'T SUPPOSED TO BE GAMBLING!!!!
Ciel(Cecilia): Haha, German Engineering Logic goes brrrrrrrrrr
ZE GERMANS KNOW PROBABILITY
She manipulated her luck like a pendulum. Pulling it over into bad luck by losing so many times so it would swing back the other way.
that was actually insane wtf 😂 losing every right is always right into ultra instinct beating her previous odds of lose streak
You get a funny bit of dialog if you win enough times in a row on this.
let be guess, the game acuseing you of cheating i presume
@@MouseGoat I don't remember exactly, but it's way more anti-gambling. Dude straight blows up at you lol.
that was amazing. %90 of gamblers, folks
90%*
Cecilia is pre-emptively banned from Vegas.
“We’ve already done cute fluffy twin dogs, ojou devil/angel, slacker shark, etc. etc. … any other archetypes or ideals to play with?”
“RUTHLESSLY COMPETENT CLOCKWORK DOLL”
Dont forget german
@@Pindeckoo1 that’s implied lol
“Ah, I love gambling on a 50/50…”
-Me, getting yeeted out of a Map Portal in FFXIV
Yep. Like 80% of the time lol.
@@galetalon3133 when I was doing maps one time with FC friends, one of them decided to troll a little on a suggestion for a Gambler’s Lure, and said “Go Low”…
On a one.
And the Map Holder listened.
Needless to say, we lost out on 2 rare minions and hold it over his head every once in a while XD
didn't expect anything less from an automaton... still, HOLLY CRAB!!!
6:03 i love this moment
It would be perfect if she had hit the “head key turn” macro at 3:00 since that’s clearly what’s going on. But that’ll come with time. Still a delightful clip!
That's what you get for standing in the way of JUSTICE!!
that was an NL mind destroyer level of prediction and yapping right there omg
My cute dolly couldn't be any much dumbe- OH MY GIDDILY GOD HOW IS THIS HAPPENING!?!?
Cici finally decided to turn on her GPU
GPU?
@@peachypet808 Graphics Processing Unit
@@seighartmercury Yeah but that... You know... Processes graphics unless otherwise specified. That is not a raw logic processor.
@@peachypet808 It's not just for graphics, it's for massive and/or repetitive computations, hence the prolific use in crypto-mining.
@@seighartmercury Yeah but you wouldn't make a robot like that with standard parts anyway. So... I would still disagree. But you aren't wrong! I forgot that we had the horrible times of scalpers buying up GPUs because of crypto stuff. Thank the Fae that market crashed.
Meanwhile, me and every gamer I've ever played with subscribe to the "left is right and right is wrong" mantra.
That's where good adventurers go.
Han Solo: Never tell me the odds
Just, locking in. Just absolutely mogging Capcom.
For those that don’t know, Minnish Cap and the Oracle games were made in collaboration with Capcom.
They were? Dope.
RUclips decided to recommend this to me after she has a gambler arc with Gura and Fauna in EnReco day 1
NUMBER GO UP!
Heart is happy 🎉
What the...
Quick lesson in probability: the chance is always 50%. The past doesn’t matter
Yeah that annoys me when people try to use past results to predict future results, like Astral was doing in the gambler episodes of Yugioh Zexal (guy was extremely lucky on his dice rolls because of magic card powers) and kept multiplying the 1/6 chance. No, each new roll is 1/6 dude. Heck, every possible combination of possible X rolls have the same small chance of having happened.
LET'S GO GAMBLING!
Ofc an automaton would be the best at calculating the odds 😂
The house always wins
don't worry as an automaton Cece cleans house 😂
cecilia is a very competent automaton.
That 5th attempt literally had me shout "oh GODDAMMIT" like I FELT that one in me bones. You have my sympathy. Now to see you get your sweet vengeance >:)
EDIT: HOLY SHIT I FELT THAT ANGER-LOGIC TOO
It’s funny, I swear this was the exact same logic I used when I did this in Minish Cap as a kid. Sometimes RNG be like that.
But it doesn’t always work lol
I remember playing a game with my bro it was called tower (and some number idk) and there is a few gambling minigames but i noticed rather quickly that the stocks minigame was not random, if you imputed in the correct time you would get the same result every time and while it was kinda hard to get it right even failing multiple times in a row you coukd still get enough money to get every upgrade in the game in the first shop.
To be fair, the odds were ALWAYS 50%.
You don't know statistics, the calculus shown here is correct, the event probability is 50% but the combined sequence of event lower the probabilities, 50% on first try, then 25% to get two same results in a row, 6.25% three in a row and so on, the formula is just (event probability)^n , where n is the number representing how many times in a row you obtain the same results. For exampe, it you will try to flip a coin and get head 7 times in a row, the probability to do so is (0.5)^7 =0.0078125 * 100 = 0.78125% , very low. You can do this for anything, for my example getting a 6 on a dice four times in a row would be (1/6)^6*100% probability , ecc...
the odd to pick is always 50%
the thing is, the calculation the clip is applying is not your chance to get it right among the two chests
is the odds that you'd have to get things right *in a row*
take it for example your chances to win the lottery are 0.1%
and you win, cool, your chance was 0.1%
now you go into the lottery to try again, and you win!
both tries effectively were 0.1% all the same
*the matter of question isn't "what are the odds to win the lottery?" but rather "what are the odds of you winning the lottery TWICE in *
that's what Odd calculation is about, it's the chances for things to align and happen consecutively.
One thing is calculating an attempt [Individually], another thing is calculating the events of multiple attempts coming to a success [in a streak].
Good replies and all, but I think that this comment is supposed to be ironic.
I would say that, but the odds for Cecilia to get the double or nothing right each time makes me believe it really wasn't a game of chance and whoever programmed the game set that pattern manually. That pattern is actually fairly common, I don't know it it has a name but I like to call it the "bamboozle pattern"
"Never tell me the odds" that one guy who's life happened in a single week.
Ceci: explaining how to win a gambling
Ceci (in heart): You dare to trick me？THEN YOU'VE CHOSEN BANKRUPT😤😤😤
Cecilia made a calculated risk
But boy is she bad at math...
She lost five times in a row and then won seven times in a row, profiting literal hundreds over the lost amount.
I'd say she's pretty good at math.
Me when there's a good Cecelia clip
"Ooo serotonin!"
You can easily break the gambling minigame with infinite money when you get the Digging Mitts, and dig in one spot outside of your house in the game, over and over again.
By breaking you mean trial and error?
Because that doesn't sounds like breaking the minigame, mostly the game eco but not this one
That's just unintended video game grinding
whats even worse is not this kind of grinding
Is the gacha
HOW DID SHE DO THAT?! 😂
SHE LOST AND THEN
If she had lost once, this special moment would’ve never existed. Think about that.
Yup and it was a 98% chance she would have lost.
SHE REALLY BEAT THE ODDS TWICE HAHA
While biboo wins gambling with her in game luck stats, cecilia uses her irl luck stats
Nah she use science to get luck,
Its different case if its flare and kaela
@@Myticalcattnip "german science...!"
Da Gambler
would someone please tell me if the game uses fair odds
perhaps
I can confirm that the mini game does use the game's random number generator to determine the outcome. The RNG can be assumed to be an even distribution for probabilities in normal gameplay so it's a fair 50/50 coin toss, RNG can be manipulated by doing precise actions after powering on the game but that doesn't apply in this case.
problem with PC random is its not "true random"
This means you can sorta predict PC random, I mean people will say you cant but our brains a super advanced patten finding machines, we sometimes undstand deeper pattens subconsciously.
For added proof of this, were did she get the numbers form when she picked chest? random? no humans a HORIBLE bad at doing random. she picked a pattern that she subconsciously felt was the right one.
Notice how she went with her gut feelings instead of thinking it over. Im just saying :o
@@MouseGoat
There is no such thing as "True random"
LET'S GO GAMBLING!!!
brzzzt! Aw dang it!
Logic vs Rigged game, Logic wins
Queen's Gambit
She took that personally 😂
1:57 The way she says this is too cute. Sounds like a child throwing a fit.
Based Cecil
This one I spam savestates by using an emu, it is hilarious watching this guy crack beating his game.
For me i just use save states hahahaha
This needs a Kakegurui-style fan animation! ALSO...
There's a theory that Jotaro Kujo from Jojo's Bizarre Adventure gets smarter when he gets angry.
I think CeCe's the same. XD
Let's go GAMBLING !!
aw dang it
Inconceivable.
Minish Cap is one of my faves
The added chances above her head, especially when she says "what are the chances" is the real VIP here
NEVER STOP GAMBLING
"Just lock in bro"
"It's not gambling if I use lotic"....Ah yes, Gambler Addict CC, my favorite unwise brain cell, very active dueing gacha pulls 😂
Let’s go gambling!
Ya know, at first I was confused why the odds stand there.
And then at 4 times in a row I noticed why
Holy shit!
saw gambling and minish cap and first thought of the shell for a chance at a new figurine and was like "just never add another shell and your return probability per shell will always be greater than if you did add an extra shell"
Don't tell the Rabbit
This reminds me of that gambling level in Dragon Quest 11.
It was full of silly games and wonderful prizes which you needed a lot of tokens for.
So you startet to gambel and gamble and thought you would get better at the games - because you started to win big.
But then the illusion vanished and you saw that everything, including the prizes was just a giant pile of #, literally.
This taught me that gambling always leave you with nothing 😅.
Remember when gambling you only lose when you quit
She has great " flow "
After reverse jinxing herself enough times, she decides to jinx herself to victory 🤣
She done gome gambling
holy fuck someone in 2024 is playing minish cap. i must be living in an alternate timeline
When I saw her realize it was rigged, and play anyway, I thought the title was just going to be misleading. But then she actually reverse engineered the psychology. I'm actuaally impressed.
I just made a save state. Never lost.
Nah. I'm using rewind 😂
Or Save State then Load State 😅
A nice case of (gamblers fault)
I didn't realize Minish Cap had a luck stat, because hers is clearly maxed out.
Being a GBA game, maybe it actually _is_ rigged... 🤔
It’s like she has inverse gatcha luck
I did this once with a friend holding a coin. He would put it in one of his hands and I would guess which hand was holding the coin. After the first failure, i was able to guess the correct hand over and over again. I dunno if its just cause i knew him well or what. But for the few minutes we played, i felt like i was reading him like a book lol.
Me playing voltorb flip be like
Look up "Gambler's Fallacy" lmao
she's smart as hell, i got the same power sometimes
“99% of gamblers quit right before they make it big” -Cecilla
Everytime you wanna see if gambling is rigged on a game.. i just use save state
. Gambling fallacy actually paying off with pattern seeking brain-
What happened? Like... Actually
well a mix of luck and her subconsciously tapping in to the games random pattern.
But well simpler explanation: we dont know, dum luck! XD
@@MouseGoat Honestly waiting for someone to tell me if the game has actual RNG or not
Skilled guessing, basically.
@@MouseGoat The pattern isn't actually random, it only SEEMS random, to people who don't know the precise logic behind the pattern. :P
In game-developer terms, it's "random enough". xD
She really is an expert in gambling😂
As someone who works in retail and has to deal with people who have sub room temperature IQ I get why he hates customers
WTF did I just watch?
Cecillia is my spirit animal lmao
Just a few days ago, I was playing Dungeons of Dredmor. I was trying to disarm a basic gargoyle arrow trap. With no trap skill, I had a 45% chance of succeeding. I promptly failed 12!!!!! times in a row! Yes, I did take time to heal between fails, but otherwise only attempted to disarm that trap. After 12 fails in a row, I left. I was out of healing, and figured I should just level up a bit before returning.
That's about a 0.00069% chance of occurring. Or, a 1 in 14,502 chance.
90% of gamblers quit before they win big but..
No matter what, Always bet on cecilla
Robot girl so happy with her calculations
Man she has my luck with 50/50 chances
Well it was until she absolutely destroyed the game