Does that 80,000 people coming into washington include the amount of homeless that are being brought into olympia? Also ive heard that many of the software devs from seattle are leaving due to layoffs and remote work becoming a viable option for most devs. I dont know the validity of those statements, just what ive heard and wondering if that plays a part?
Very good question…The numbers come from the census. So, they are unlikely including the homeless in their count, and even if they did, it would be a relatively small portion of the increase. As far as folks exiting Seattle, that is certainly happening. However, depending on the statistics you find, some say Seattle is still growing in population, while other reports have a decline. No matter how you slice it, even if the number is more like 50k per year, we still don’t have enough homes immediately available to significantly impact and lower home prices due to a high buyer demand :( Some incentives to sell and build are definitely needed soon before things get more out of hand…
When people can't afford their houses there will plenty of inventory. Unfortunately with high inflation, war, food shortages and job losses makes where people can't afford their mortgages. People seem to think home prices only go up but those who say that apparently don't remember 2008. They can and they will go down.
I definitely remember 2008…I was a casualty of it when I made the tough decision to short sale my own home. 2008 was the product of a large home inventory boom, horrible lending practices, and collusion with appraisers. You could walk into a bank and say you make a million dollars, and they would give you a loan without verifying your income or ability to repay. Even I had no business getting the loan that I was approved for at that time… What is vastly different from 2008 and today is there is far greater scrutiny and oversight with lending and appraisals along with an already low inventory going into the recession, errrr “economic downturn”. Sure, if you just bought a home within the last 3-5 months and you lose your job as a result of the economic conditions, you might see some of them short sell, maybe even some foreclosures. However, that will have very little impact on the market as the vast majority of new buyers who purchased “high” did it a year or two ago. The median home price in Washington in January of 2020 (prior to all the rate nonsense and COVID) was $429,000. In January of 2021, the median home price was $509,575. As of October 2022, the median home price is $605,000. So, for the vast majority of home owners in Washington, they still have a boat load of equity. Those who lose their home due to job loss will sell their home and still likely make a profit prior to a foreclosure or a short sale. The Fed has already indicated that they are seeing improvement with inflation. Meanwhile, inventory still remains low as only those who absolutely must sell are coming to market, and people are still buying them. The rest are waiting and sitting on a 2.5 to 3.5 interest rate with zero desire to sell in this market.
@@bluerootproperties9409 it doesn't matter how much equity they have in their house if they still can't make the payments from loosing their job. Many high paying tech companies have cut jobs along with other lower paying businesses. And shame on people that lied about their income when applying for a home back in 2007/2008. I don't wish anyone loosing their home, but I was honest and was able to keep my home during the recession. Maybe being a dishonest person played a role in their demise.
The households most at risk are the one who purchased between the end of 2021 and mid 2022…They purchased high, and yes, the median home price is now below or getting closer to where they no longer have equity in their homes. However, people underestimate these individuals. These are the people who dipped into or emptied their life savings in order to get their dream home at the 2.5% to 3.5% interest rate. All of them, in order to get financing had to have a minimum of 2 years of the same or similar employment. Therefore, they have tenure in their jobs and a skill set that is more established/experienced in their respective jobs. Therefore, these individuals will (1) be unlikely targets/victims of layoffs and (2) have the skills and abilities to find another one of the over 11,000,000 jobs currently available (along with the fact employers are practically begging for employees). Even if 10% (which is insanely high) of the approximately 50,000 households who purchased between the most vulnerable time were laid off, gave up, never found another job, and decided to short sale or foreclose, it would only amount to about 5,000 homes returning to market…We average between 6,500 and 10,000 new listings a month in Washington. 5,000 foreclosed/short sold homes spread out over the course of the next year would have little impact on the market and subsequent home values. The markets are already responding to signs that inflation might have peeked. Home interest rates this past week made the largest weekly drop since 1981. Not saying this will continue, given interest rates are like a yo-yo, but it is a very positive sign. In the meantime, our new listings have fallen, people are afraid to buy because of doom and gloom predictions, and inventory still remains low…Guess what is going to happen if rates drop (as many predict) between 4-5% in the first or second quarter of 2023? Get your popcorn ready…
@@bluerootproperties9409 I just advise you to have an open mind that there is a probably a depression looming and that home prices don't always go up during times of hardship .Take it how you want.
Does that 80,000 people coming into washington include the amount of homeless that are being brought into olympia? Also ive heard that many of the software devs from seattle are leaving due to layoffs and remote work becoming a viable option for most devs. I dont know the validity of those statements, just what ive heard and wondering if that plays a part?
Very good question…The numbers come from the census. So, they are unlikely including the homeless in their count, and even if they did, it would be a relatively small portion of the increase. As far as folks exiting Seattle, that is certainly happening. However, depending on the statistics you find, some say Seattle is still growing in population, while other reports have a decline. No matter how you slice it, even if the number is more like 50k per year, we still don’t have enough homes immediately available to significantly impact and lower home prices due to a high buyer demand :( Some incentives to sell and build are definitely needed soon before things get more out of hand…
When people can't afford their houses there will plenty of inventory. Unfortunately with high inflation, war, food shortages and job losses makes where people can't afford their mortgages. People seem to think home prices only go up but those who say that apparently don't remember 2008. They can and they will go down.
I definitely remember 2008…I was a casualty of it when I made the tough decision to short sale my own home. 2008 was the product of a large home inventory boom, horrible lending practices, and collusion with appraisers. You could walk into a bank and say you make a million dollars, and they would give you a loan without verifying your income or ability to repay. Even I had no business getting the loan that I was approved for at that time… What is vastly different from 2008 and today is there is far greater scrutiny and oversight with lending and appraisals along with an already low inventory going into the recession, errrr “economic downturn”. Sure, if you just bought a home within the last 3-5 months and you lose your job as a result of the economic conditions, you might see some of them short sell, maybe even some foreclosures. However, that will have very little impact on the market as the vast majority of new buyers who purchased “high” did it a year or two ago. The median home price in Washington in January of 2020 (prior to all the rate nonsense and COVID) was $429,000. In January of 2021, the median home price was $509,575. As of October 2022, the median home price is $605,000. So, for the vast majority of home owners in Washington, they still have a boat load of equity. Those who lose their home due to job loss will sell their home and still likely make a profit prior to a foreclosure or a short sale.
The Fed has already indicated that they are seeing improvement with inflation. Meanwhile, inventory still remains low as only those who absolutely must sell are coming to market, and people are still buying them. The rest are waiting and sitting on a 2.5 to 3.5 interest rate with zero desire to sell in this market.
@@bluerootproperties9409 it doesn't matter how much equity they have in their house if they still can't make the payments from loosing their job. Many high paying tech companies have cut jobs along with other lower paying businesses. And shame on people that lied about their income when applying for a home back in 2007/2008. I don't wish anyone loosing their home, but I was honest and was able to keep my home during the recession. Maybe being a dishonest person played a role in their demise.
@@bluerootproperties9409 Plus they won't have equity either with the continual price drops.
The households most at risk are the one who purchased between the end of 2021 and mid 2022…They purchased high, and yes, the median home price is now below or getting closer to where they no longer have equity in their homes. However, people underestimate these individuals. These are the people who dipped into or emptied their life savings in order to get their dream home at the 2.5% to 3.5% interest rate. All of them, in order to get financing had to have a minimum of 2 years of the same or similar employment. Therefore, they have tenure in their jobs and a skill set that is more established/experienced in their respective jobs. Therefore, these individuals will (1) be unlikely targets/victims of layoffs and (2) have the skills and abilities to find another one of the over 11,000,000 jobs currently available (along with the fact employers are practically begging for employees). Even if 10% (which is insanely high) of the approximately 50,000 households who purchased between the most vulnerable time were laid off, gave up, never found another job, and decided to short sale or foreclose, it would only amount to about 5,000 homes returning to market…We average between 6,500 and 10,000 new listings a month in Washington. 5,000 foreclosed/short sold homes spread out over the course of the next year would have little impact on the market and subsequent home values.
The markets are already responding to signs that inflation might have peeked. Home interest rates this past week made the largest weekly drop since 1981. Not saying this will continue, given interest rates are like a yo-yo, but it is a very positive sign. In the meantime, our new listings have fallen, people are afraid to buy because of doom and gloom predictions, and inventory still remains low…Guess what is going to happen if rates drop (as many predict) between 4-5% in the first or second quarter of 2023? Get your popcorn ready…
@@bluerootproperties9409 I just advise you to have an open mind that there is a probably a depression looming and that home prices don't always go up during times of hardship .Take it how you want.
Baloney
Aw thanks, but I’m a pescatarian 🐟👍
Add to baloney… way to fishy brah. Btw, blue roots is a dope farm close to Spokane…
Pot shops always have the most dope names 😆