The truth about mass migration
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- Опубликовано: 26 июн 2024
- I'm Andres Acevedo and this is The Market Exit. During the migration crisis of 2015, the small country of Sweden admitted a very large number of refugees. What effects did this surge of migrants to Swedish have on the Swedish economy? To find out, I met professor Peo Hansen, author of the book "A Modern Migration Theory" and from our conversation, I realized that many of the economic models we use for assessing our economy and society are deeply flawed.
In the conversation, we talk about the field of research called the fiscal impact of migration. We talk about the difference between real resources and financial resources. We talk about the so-called brain drain within the European Union. We talk about why politicians are so afraid of speaking the truth about migration.
📺 Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
02:55 Chapter 1: A Weird Science: The Fiscal Impact of Migration
06:57 Chapter 2: The Map Is Not The Territory: Real vs Financial Resources
10:38 Chapter 3: The real constraints on migration
13:42 Conclusion - Why is nobody telling the truth?
14:41 Thank you
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#migration #immigration #refugees 
Наука
Many comments express concern that immigration has led to a surge in crime in Sweden. This suprises me, because the data does not support that concern. Crime rates (number of reported crimes) have either decreased or remained stable over time in Sweden.* During the same period, the population has increased, which means that the crime rate has decreased. Equally important, the rate of lethal violence has decreased over time. It was higher in the early 1990s.** Considering that the population in the early 1990s was 8.5 million and today it's 10 million, the decrease appears even more significant. It concerns me that so many seem to have been misled about the state of crime in Sweden.
I also know many of you commented before watching the whole video. That’s too bad because if you watch it all the way through, you'll see that the professor's views on migration is quite nuanced.
Anyways, thanks for watching and commenting -- cheers!
* See offial statistics at bra.se/statistik/kriminalstatistik/anmalda-brott.html
** See official statistics at bra.se/download/18.62c6cfa2166eca5d70e1dc50/1615395172351/2019_6_Dodligt_vald_i_Sverige_1990_2017.pdf
This is not true. Please stop misleading your viewers.
You’re a bare faced liar. Who is paying you?
@@kammaral1 Kammaral, on what data or statistics are you basing that allegation?
@@TheMarketExit I replied to your pinned comment three times and none of them have been published. You'll find the information in those comments.
That's strange. Did the comments include links? In that case maybe RUclips's filter restricted them. Let's do this: If you email me your comment with the information, I can post it here so people can see it. hello@andresacevedo.com Cheers!
The cost of policing the crime, murder and gangs has increased. GDP per Capita is declining. Mass Immigration is hurting the middle-class of many Western Nations.
The whole reasoning of the "professor" is faulty. It's like playing magic with words
Not just the middle classes !
There are milions of immigrants living in Europe, a few commit crime which makes a tiny minority. Still, racists always hang on to the criminality issue and pin it to all immigrants whenever they run out of arguments. Propaganda!
The real problem is not immigration. It is islam.
So there were no gangs or crime in western nations before mass immigration? Give me a break. How does the cost of policing have anything to do with the inflow of immigrants. Equally, GDP per Capita has been falling for many reasons… correlation does not equal causation.
Sweden, you are losing your heritage, your culture, your freedoms and eventually your country. The cost is completely irrelevant.
But all that is just 'symbols', what you really need is to have more consoomers so the numbers can go up
But line go up!
Sweden loves the blacks
If the Swedish don’t value their culture, maybe it is really garbage. If you don’t value yourself, you can’t expect respect from others
@@AT-tu6yzBlacks are humble, law abiding and hardworking. We are so lucky to have them!
Sacrificing your culture and heritage for GDP is wild. But Sweden committed an irreversible act that will forever haunt its future generations. Good luck to them dealing with the problems that policy makers now did to "boost the economy".
Honor killings, FGM, acid attacks, etc used to be unheard of in Australia. White girls being targeted for rape by Muslims did not used to happen. Christian bishops did not used to be attacked in churches. Bollards to protect pedestrians from vehicles in malls were not necessary. Police and military personnel used to be able to wear their uniforms when going to and from duty.
Aboriginals used to wander around Australia without fences and restrictions imposed by European people who forcibly took control of their land. Thomas Becket, Archbishop of Canterbury, was literally murdered in his cathedral. People used to be tortured and hung drawn and quartered for heresy in early modern European history and the Catholic church has a long and infamous history of kiddy fiddling.
I don't mean to be rude but from your comments, it looks like you are living in the delusion of the past being better than the present. The only constant in life is change and we need to open our eyes and do our best to ensure that change is for the betterment of humanity.
Propaganda.
I'm not even going to finish this, I guess it's meant to make us believe this immigration is positive. We'll talk in 20 years.
Indeed. let see if sweden becomes Iran v2 in 20 Years
@@jamesgunawan3537 reportedly it already has 70 no-go zones.
Watched the whole video here. I did not feel that the video was pushing a pro-migration or anti-migration agenda. He argued that the concept of immigrants being a financial burden is not a sensible justification for being against immigration. There is still plenty of room to argue against immigration, by disagreeing with his assessment, or on other grounds such as dilution of the native culture, etc. He even has a chapter on the drawbacks of migration in the video.
To point out the error in a justification of a position is not the same as objecting to the position. Here's an example: If someone "debunked" flat-earth theory by saying the sky is blue, I would challenge them on the basis that the sky being blue does not disprove flat-earth theory. That does not mean that I believe the Earth is flat. Same goes for this video. Refuting a reason to be against migration does not make one explicitly in favour of migration or against migration.
You could even interpret the video as a gesture for improving anti-immigration arguments. By dismissing poor arguments, he is making sure that anyone arguing against migration is only using the most convincing reasoning :)
@@swankitydankity297 The "professor" concluded immigration was overall positive.
@@peddersoldchap The professor did not conclude that immigration was overall positive. He concluded that immigration has a positive impact specifically on the workable resources of the receiving country. And as per my earlier comment, that is not the same as concluding immigration itself is a good thing. Pointing out that one specific reason (financial) to be against immigration is wrong, does not automatically make someone in favour of immigration. Ergo, the video is not promoting immigration. It is just saying that this one specific reason people use is not a good reason to be using.
What a bunch of total BS !
I'm feeling so culturally enriched right now!
Unless the “average” swedish tax contribution is net zero, your assertion that everyone below average is a burden. By definition, a burden is someone who takes out more than they put in. Not someone who puts in less than the average. Also the dutch study concluded that a single migrant costs them hundreds of thousands of euros. With less money you could incentivise swedish couples to have kids instead of inviting incompatible cultures. It would be cheaper to pay swedish couples to have a kid than to invite an algerian migrant
But not as enriching for society! And migrants create spending on police salaries
I like how this video never talked about the huge increase in violent crime.
Like people are not stupid.
Denmark released their data.
Sweden is not Sweden anymore.
The Danes are based.
Sweden, Canada and Scotland are trying to see who can destroy their country first.
Could you provide a source to the Danish data please?
@@Lobronzo21
I can infom you ;
Danish prisons are
disproportionately overrepresented by
Muslims in particular.
And after served time,
many of them will be
deported to their be-
loved homes countries.
If necessary, their Da-
nish passports will be
confiscated.
And it doesn't matter
whether they are born
in Denmark or not.
The result ?
Denmark is not over-
runned by Muslims
such as e.g. Sweden.
Other countries, rather help their own to have larger families than foreigners.
How dare you!?
Please speak about foreigners trying to implement Sharia "laws" and how this can affect sweedish women and gays.
This! He doesn’t even mention what women are facing. This piece is sexist!
Absolutely none of the foreigners I have ever met in my life have ever wanted to implement Sharia laws. They have all been normal people trying to live the best life they can, just like you and me.
@@fortune-cookie-monster of course they won't tell this in our faces, but we have some vídeo recordings of them speaking amongst each other claiming this. They want to expandir their religion and kill who they consider "infidels".
As crime increases, GDP decreases.
As conflict increases, GDP decreases.
In San Francisco, CA, 40% of the stores at Union Square have fled, not to return. This is due to an unsafe feeling and the pandemic. If a citizen feels unsafe walking into an ethnic enclave then there is no shopping.
A certain ethnic group has promised to take over Sweden. They are known to be authoritarian. Doesn’t this ring a warning bell?
I live in Norway I'm 45. Worked all my life. Went through an "unfavorable" devorce 4 years ago. Now I am mooving out from the a small flatt in a barn to a room in friends house because I can't find a hous to rent. And working on the farm where I rent now isn't possible any more and don't pay any bills.
The market is vacumed clean of housing for rent and the bank don't give me a loan to buy.
1.5 rimes more people came in to Norway than norwegians borne last year. Running a business is extremely hard when forign labour push every norwegian in to every allready overcrowded nitch and generally push down prices and make everyone who do blue collar services spend much more time idle or going around quoting work they don't even get. Wasting huge ammouts of time and burning capital on trying to just staying in the market.
But the economic reasons arn't even the most important. It is the cultural and societal reasons against mass migration that is the worst. Mass migration lead to loss of trust and conflict. Civil war is the ultimate consequence. That is not a small risk. Mass migration of culturally distant people from in to a country or region has always ended in ehnical cleancing or war.
You forgot to mention that a lot of relatively unskilled work, like working in Starbucks etc, in Norway is taken by Swedish immigrants! 😀
@@peterc.1618 Swedish people are our neighbours. So it would be very strange if they wasn't a big part of forigng workers. And the overall contribute to zero prosent more problems than our baseline ammount of social problems. And that is not the case for Midle-Eastern or African migrants.
And even East-European migrants, though in much less degree.
@@erikkaareson6493 Of course, just ironic bearing in mind what the professor said in the video.
Norwegians love the blacks too
The same problems, without immigrants, are reported by those who live in eastern and southern Europe. To me this depends on bad administration. See how many native Americans live in the States compared to those of other ethnicity
room temperature iq level economic analysis.
As someone who has just started getting into economics via youtube because of channels like this and economics explained, how was this analysis "room temperature iq".
Again, I don't mean to question your judgement; I just want to know where your coming and maybe I get to learn something along the way lol
@@adityarajswami pick up an actual economics textbook read a paper or 2 and you will quickly realize that the last type of person you want here on whether x thing is good for the economy is a political scientist
@@generatea2207 Why are you not explaining your position? Your response in itself is room temperature iq. I don't mean that as in a way to offend you but rather I want you to genuinely respond, to make a normal and well-formed response to what that person said.
@@warszawianek thank you for saying this 😂
Start with a few basic questions, like how is wealth created? This is a question that is often ignored by the political scientists with an agenda. (As in this paean to immigration video)
Wealth is created through labor and capital PRODUCTIVITY. That is, for a unit of labor or investment, the output is higher than before. This is the only long term GDP contributor. Sure you CAN ‘create’ wealth the old fashioned way by conquering a people and territory and raiding its resources, but that is a very limited way to make for progress.
So, going back to our example. The use of industrial knowledge and the wise use of resources creates wealth. Fossil fuels being the major contributor to GDP over the last century. But Fossil Fuels are only useful to the extent that you have an educated society with the technical skill to employ energy. (Let’s not get into climate science here, you can substitute whatever fuel source you like for the future.)
So, how are migrants helpful? According to the presenters, they arrive in Sweden and fill jobs that do not require high education and therefore contribute to Sweden’s GDP.
Sure, but NOT wealth creation because to create wealth, you have to increase PER CAPITA GDP, which they assuredly are not. You can add a bunch of low skill labor to any economy, suppress the wages of the low skill natives, increase GDP, and cause misery through a decrease in per capita GDP.
Secondarily, a country with high social welfare spending rarely recovers the lifetime earnings of low wage workers in tax payments. All those Swedish doctors keep everyone alive until they are ancient!
Finally, think about two additional problems. First, you are decreasing the wages of your native low skill workers. How about them? Did you ask them about your great new idea? Nope! University professors seldom consider these folks as worth asking about. Second, as AI and other PRODUCTIVITY enhancing products are introduced, you will have fewer and fewer low skill jobs available. And what did you just do? You IMPORTED SURPLUS low skill workers. It’s an insanely short sighted idea.
Of course, in several generations, perhaps your low skilled workers will gain skills and contribute to productivity. But for cultural reasons, that is a very long bet. Yet Western countries make that bet with abandon. In addition, if they think that the cultural values of Islam are going to mix nicely in the North, then they are truly ignorant of history.
So, to net. Study Productivity. These slick videos never address that because it would place a torpedo amidships!
We have the chance to change this now, EU elections get the vote out.
No Vote for mainstream parties, there are plenty of choice now for parties that are not in favour of latest EU migration pact.
I'm an immigrant to Sweden.
I think the editor here sat down and had an Arkimedes moment: "you know what I'm going to do?! I'm going to refresh the establishment narrative that immigration pays off, and tell it as a journey of discovery!"
Property owners benefit from high rates of migration because it keeps rents & occupancy rates high.
The rest of the public lose out because of the increased load on infrastructure & services.
Low stable rates of migration are what’s needed, this allows proper integration education of new migrants & gives time to develop infrastructure & services.
What ever, but uncontrolled emigration is heavy burden to any country.
Government spending increases gdp......yes, just shows what a stupid measure gdp is. Spending like this is like trying to pull yourself up by tugging on your own boot laces
All skill levels are important but for sustainable productivity increases higher skill levels and entrepreneurship IMO give the best bang for your buck
I appreciate the nuance you’re trying to bring to the immigration issue, but this is a topic that would take literal hours to even try to dissect fully. There are far more reasons local populations don’t want immigration beyond just the economy, in Canada for instance there is a severe lack of housing, a “real” constraint; so when immigration quotas go up, it severely hurts renters and takes stock out of the housing market that is badly needed. There are cultural issues as well. Very few people who live in a certain area with a certain culture will be overjoyed by a huge group of newcomers who all cling together, refuse to speak the new local language, and carry with them the baggage of a culture that isn’t congruous with their new surroundings. These are very real issues, and to ignore those in lieu of other brighter parts of immigration happens at our own peril, because they must be taken into account when discussing this topic.
The money that is being 'spent out' is coming from where? Of course, more money flowing in the economy shows 'growth'. Growth in what areas and how productive is it? What about the costs in housing, health care and schooling etc? Crime is a cost both socially and economically. Young highly educated Swedes are leaving in droves, why? They are being replaced with largely uneducated migrants. This is an economic cost, isn't it? When that professors protected job is replaced by a migrant, I will start listening to him.
So the economy grew because the government threw tax money into it to pay for the burden they created? Is that real growth?
And why talk averages? Surely, the only relevant vertical line should be the breakeven point where an individual constitutes a financial profit or a loss to the economy over their lifetime. And then add soft value factors to work out whether they constitute a benefit or burden to society. Maybe women do constitute a financial loss on average, but they add other soft values that make them net valuable to society. Nurses in state run hospitals and clinics are a total financial loss, being paid entirely by tax revenues, but obviously their soft value usually outweighs this loss.
Has the prof done this analysis on migrants? Has he done it on different migrant groups?
Who was driving the buses before mass immigration? What happens when migrants don't want to be restricted to lower paid jobs, but can't get the higher paid jobs because of all of the barriers to advancement they face?
Maybe the maker of this video missed a lot, or the prof did, but none of it made much sense. 2 out of 10. Try harder next time.
The blacks enrich us all with their vibrancy!
I think you are totally wrong. Because your argument is that jobs in the public sector, paid by the state, by definition is a cost, and that jobs in the private sector, by definition, is not. Thats crap, thats absurd.
@@MatsHoglund-pk1hd that’s economics 101. Get an education and then come back to the question
@@MatsHoglund-pk1hd “You’re wrong” is such a powerful argument and crystal clear explanation of your thesis that I feel I must ignore it. Let me guess, you’re a cost right?
Apart from the tax authorities, I can’t think of any other tax funded employees that directly generate more state income than they cost. I’m sure there must be others, but I can’t think of any. Maybe public transport? Though that seems to be mostly run by private companies.
Please, share your wisdom.
I don't think the cost/burden analysis is correct. It should be about lifetime value of a person to a society. Do you make more in taxes than you take in benefits? A cleaner could easily earn more than what was put into his or her education and healthcare etc. A casino manager can not just cost more to the society, but also destroy wealth by getting people addicted to gambling and destroying their lives. I did not think this was a good comparison at all.
Plus you should really also mention the political tendency of capital to push for cheap labor immigration to pump up their profits. Less cheap immigration would mean higher wages as companies are forced to pay higher prices for labor.
The real story in the West during the past few years seems to be growth of wealth disparity. Middle class is disappearing. Good jobs are harder to get, but stock market growth is higher than ever in history. Low cost labor immigration feeds directly into exacerbating this phenomenon.
Spot on. Housing and wages are major costs but coincidentally they correlate positively with GDP while the working population gets stiffed with the externalities (cost/bills). There's also cultural factors that are hard to quantify: peace of mind, community, alienation...
There's a study out of California recently that puts the depression of wages due to immigration at 15%. Quite significant. I think anyone could use a solid 15% more in their pocket.
Lifelong care for rape victims isn't cheap either but it sure does increase gdp.
Also, we don't know who they considered in their "immigrant" category. That term includes Americans who work in software for example who then skew the data due to their disproportionately high impactdie to high salaries. So this isn't as obvious as they may seem to want.
Also, not everything is always about economics. People just don't want to deal with it and complicate things or have tiring debates, and the for sure don't appreciate no go zones or hand grenade attacks. Who gives af whether Sweden grew more? Useless anyways since that money was pocketed by the bosses, not the average Joe. You think Gunnar the Plumber got a 4.5% raise?
Also who said there's a correlation with these Syrian Doctors and engineers? Couldve been policy changes or a change in how they measure growth, or a bunch of productive Finns coming in. More people more economic activity, duuuhhh. Do we need professors to see the correlation?
The angle is to take down the argument that immigration is a burden from a cost perspective and how this phenomena is talked about. Immigration adds to the economy and not the opposite which has been the narrative. Society needs hands and not an overvalued never ending flow of digital symbols with no actual worth.
England for instance has problems finding people for farming since Brexit and the new restricted policys for immigration. There is a shortage of labour everywhere in a lot of sectors, both private and public. Why is that when there is so much money out there?
And the Stockmarket, how does immigration play a part of keeping wages down on a company like Volvo you mean? They are all pretty well paid. Or other companies like that. These companies benefits if anything from cheap labour and not so good regulations abroad. But these companies can't pay bad wages in Sweden.
If companies on the stockmarket wants to reduce costs in order to make more profit, that hits everyone.
Companies on the stockmarket taking advantage of peoples disadvantages of being newcomers exist absolutely. But that is not a problem of immigration itself. Why is Amazon aloud to exploit workers like they do in the US? Cause they can due to lack of regulations and unions not being able to put pressure on these companies for different reasons. And who benefits from that? J.B!
Swedens birthrate is 1,42. Rest of Europe worse. Since you need a birthrate of 2,1 to sustain the population which is the very fundament that the society and economy relies on, we should ask ourself, ok how do we make this work? Instead we have been focusing on costs that didn't exist in the way they were presented by experts and media. Not the benefits.
There is a need for another narrative to be told here. A unifying collective one.
The neoliberal agenda where immigrants are made scapegoats will not be the answer if you want to see changes that benefits everyone except from the very rich.
The labor unions here in Sweden are insanely powerful. You basically can't get a job without talking to one, and they will not let you start working if you agreed to a lower wage than your peers, and given that almost no where accepts cash in the country anymore, there aren't many "under the table" jobs around. Proper labor protections can help offset that particular downside.
Not really. If your only metric is stock price/growth - you incentivised to do whatever to achieve that. Cutting costs, optimizing business structure, offshore everything etc.
The benefits that an immigrant receives are not just public services and handouts. They enjoy reliable electricity supplies, roads, bridges, dams, water and power distribution networks, education, telecommunications, health and welfare systems, that have taken the native population generations to build. Immigrants crowd up everything.
Immigrants contribute to the need for still more infrastructure, that everyone has to pay for, not just the newcomers that make it necessary,
This is extraordinarily good news. It means in a nutshell that the more people who are entirely dependent on welfare, the less integration that occurs and a huge increase in violent crime and sexual crime are great for the economy. This is such an excellent idea it is now being applied in Ireland. We must improve our economy by replacing ourselves.
This was interesting to watch from a British perspective. Because here in the UK, the fiscal cost-benefit calculation that the professor thinks is irrelevant is usually cited by the PROPONENTS of immigration. They claim that immigrants pay more in tax than they receive in benefits (though the figures are debatable) and therefore they are a net benefit to the economy. I have always been sceptical about this argument as it implies that an immigrant who is paid to dig a hole and fill it in again and who pays taxes on his wages is a net contributor, which is obviously bonkers.
However, I’m not at all convinced by this video. For a start, the professor doesn’t explain what calculation he did to come to the conclusion that immigrants do benefit the economy.
It’s interesting that the professor mentions modern monetary theory. Proponents of MMT argue that taxes do not fund public expenditure. Rather, the government has an unlimited amount of money and taxes are required merely to prevent inflation. And in a sense, of course, this is true. But in another sense, it is not true. Because if you increase spending and then, in order to guard against the risk of inflation, you raise taxes, that is sort of the same thing as saying that you are raising taxes to fund public expenditure.
I think I detect the same sleight of hand in the professor’s argument in this video. He seems to be saying that the resources that an immigrant or a nurse receives from the state (in the form of childcare, health services, education for their children etc.) are not real resources. His argument that they are not real resources is that it is possible to put a monetary value on these resources therefore the resources do not exist! So if an immigrant receives an operation on the Swedish health service and the operation costs 10,000 krona, (I’ve made up the number, I’ve no idea how much it would cost!), the professor believes that because the operation has a price tag, no real resources have been used up! But this is obvious nonsense. The time of a surgeon is a real resource.
From everything I have read, it is clear that immigration has increased the number of serious crimes committed in Sweden. Obviously this has an economic as well as a societal cost. Has the professor quantified this economic cost? The police who have to be employed to investigate the crimes, the courts who have to spend time, trying and sentencing people? I bet he hasn’t.
Mmt is a red flag...
Bearing in mind less than 15% of immigrants actually bloody work in the UK (inc their dependants) their contribution to society is....debatable! We got the good Irish immigrants who worked and contributed. Then the Ugandan Asians who grafted. Now we have the plethora of economic migrant benefit scroungers. Lovely.
More gangsters raises GDP.
Gangsters like to spin their tires when fleeing. This stimulates the growth of tire sales.
Do these people really expect us to take this nonsense seriously? Is it really what they believe? I'm at a loss to imagine what's wrong with these people.
Don’t believe in the Nation State.
Yeah, as a Swede living abroad for many years, left even before the migration crisis. Now when I go "home" my country is unrecognizable, at least in the city's. My goal was to move back one day, but the way it is now with arab, and african clan and gang wars in the entire country, there is zero incentive to move back. The country simply is not good enough anymore. It has become a horrible place to live.
The point about signal versus reality is quite misleading. Sole ownership of resources isn't as significant as the efficiency of their use, which has a greater impact on economic growth. This is particularly relevant in discussions about migration. Many refugees and illegal migrants lack the skills and experience needed for work in an advanced economy because they haven't lived in one before. In the case of legal migration, the selection process can enhance the efficiency of labor allocation. However, this is clearly not applicable to refugees.
Additionally, treating people like any other economic resource is sociopathic. For any other resource, you want the price to be low and for it to be abundant (from macro perspective, it's the opposite for sellers). For labor, this would translate to having masses of impoverished people living throughout the country, which is obviously not good.
Lastly, you should consider using GDP per capita instead of GDP to picture the impact of migration.
certainly, not to mention all the externalities like religious and cultural friction which is absolutely massive, and criminality which is much much higher among foreigners, especially sexual and violent crimes.
Beautiful video. I literally disagree with everything in it. Cherry picking at it's finest. Always good to be challenged. Under 16's in Sweden are the first generation forced by the state to integrate with immigrants. They are extremely right wing. A few interviews with these kids would be fantastic Andres. Here in Holland A Moroccan immigrant costs €100,000 over his life time in social welfare. It takes the entire tax take of 4.5 Dutch workers to pay for him. EU immigrants pay more in tax than natives. Immigration is not equal. There are good immigrants and bad immigrants both economically and culturally.
Thanks for your comment! I'm not sure I understand your comment about forced integration of people under 16, though. Feel free to elaborate.
@@TheMarketExit isn't it self explanatory? They are forced to, because having to grow up in the presence of large numbers of immigrants is not something they chose, but something which was forced upon them by their elders.
oh the GDP would totally grow when housing prices inflate but the economic condition of the people is actually worse as they can't get housing and/or have to sacrifice alot to get housing. GDP growth number is only good for the wealthy who own most of the economy not the average person.
Its different in uk were we have been told for many years how good migration is for the economy, yet the last few years with highest ever migration we have had some of the lowest growth.
you are not allowed to say that - you are now booked in for a Re-Education Workshop by the Ministry of Truth
looks like paid video. down shift from thinking and research to playing concepts. simplest.-foreign born VS emigrants out of EU. timeline of benefits VS not good not time sensitive to you. England, Dutch time including research not mentioned- there are no benefit. you suck this time
I believe the Swedish government is afraid that there will be a mass exodus of young, skilled Swedes leaving in search of a safer place to raise children. These types of videos are a "don't worry, everything's going to be okay" message. Given how bad things are there now, I wouldn't want to even go there on holiday, let alone raise a family there.
"Migrants are a real resource". Handing out work permits to tens of thousands of working-age male 'asylum seekers' crammed 4 or 5 to a room in buildings during a housing crisis is a boon for the wealthy property owners and millionaires who are profiting massively from the cheap migrant labour supply. Young educated Irish workers are emigrating in droves partly due to the fact that they can't afford a roof over their head in their own country
The migrants from poor countries may face exploitation and live and work in conditions the native people of wealthier countries would not accept. Like the Irish used to do during the centuries that Ireland was a "nation of paupers" with families living in squalor and dying from starvation, when 'swarms' of poor Irish seasonal workers toiled in exploitative labour conditions in wealthy industrialised Britain
After (partial) Irish independence the common travel area with Britain allowed for continued free movement of cheap migrant labour, like the ten boys and young men aged 13 to 23 who burned to death in a bothy in the Kirkintilloch Fire tragedy in 1937
'The Irish Times' newspaper advised the UK government in 1867 to give "serious consideration" to encouraging Irish emigration to the US which would "increase the power of America"
The UK blamed civil unrest in Ireland in 1920 on the lack of emigration of young men: "The principal cause of the trouble is that for five years emigration has practically ceased. There are 100,000 or 200,000 young men here, of from 18 to 25 years of age, who normally would have left the country" - Military Rule in Ireland 1920, Erskine Childers
A short term solution with long-lasting consequences. "The whole subject of Irish emigration may be safely predicted to be the key which will unlock the future fate of Great Britain" - An Illustrated History of Ireland 1868
We Swedes, no matter where we started our life journey, must help each other. Sweden and the Swedes are humanistic towards all people.
I use to visit my Swedish girlfriend before they opened their borders to everyone and his horse. It was a great country. I visited it a couple of years ago and it was a complete toilet.
It's very hard for high taxation/social spending to flourish in non-homogeneous societies. The reason Nordic style socialism was so successful historically is because everyone was viewed as being a part of the in-tribe. This is a core aspect of how human psychology works (not saying it's right, just saying that's how people are). Leaders ignoring, or being unaware of this dynamic has led to much social strife and political upheaval. Take a look at the shifts in party returns from the recent EU parliament vote.
The analysis is made solely on the economic basis. And it uses the much debated and controversial "modern monetary theory" as support. It does not mention the cost of having so many people with a vastly different historical and cultural heritage gaining so much space.
The western "democratic" values have almost no counterpart on the sharia. Are you ready to embrace sharia laws? THIS is the point.
It sounds like the boost in GDP came from government spending, if the migrants were of a benefit to the country then you would expect there to be little inflation from this expansion of this money supply. So all Swedes would have to do to fact check this video is go food shopping.
As an indigenous person of the west I don’t really care about money and becoming an economic zone , what I am concerned with is having my own homeland and to live among my own people that look and act like me which is what we successfully did for thousands of years. Sweden like every other white country has been ruined and I see only conflict as factions compete against each other .
Love it! absolutely agree. It's crazy saying that people making below median is a burdon to people making more than median, absolutely a crime against logic. The fact that most economists doesn't understand economy is absolutely crazy.
The professors argument is an example of the straw man fallacy of logic. We don't say nurses are a burden on society because they generally support themselves by supplying economic value to society . Looking just at the Year 1 impacts ( which is what the professor does ) 163,000 asylum seekers ( as a group ) for a long time , are net consumers of goods and services , not suppliers. If there was economic growth because the existing population increased supply for these consumers , this only means that there was unused capacity already available .
It may be the burden placed by the asylum seekers reduces in future years as they become more productive , but we are given no information on this , and , intuitively , most would accept it takes many years for new migrants to build up their productive "capital" to match that of the host population .
5:00 then you assess whether the positive impact that cannot be measured by taxes paid is sufficient. for examples, the positive impact women bring by for example birthing the nations children or nurses bring by taking take of the nations sick. what quality do the migrants have that the natives cannot do?
Thanks for your comment. I guess that's exactly the point professor Hansen is making, i.e. that tax payments cannot be considered the only positive thing or contribution a person brings.
They are good at using knives.
Luxury beliefs are when academic activists and administrators put policies in place that allow them to virtue signal and embrace their idealism while personally avoiding all consequences of said policies due to their status and class.
it's always interesting to hear the arguments for migration without the rhetoric from political ideologs .
migrant here, you're making a huge mistake lumping all immigrants from all background together. Migrants from OECD countries and Eastern Europe are indeed net beneficiaries to the countries where they go. That's not true about migrants from non-Western backgrounds in particular Sub-Saharan Africa, the Arab world and Southern Asia. There were studies done on this issue in Denmark and the Netherlands, not to mention in the UK Bangladeshis and Somalis are way too overrepresented among those receiving benefits. The numbers Peo Hansen was talking about may have simply been due to the fact that Sweden is getting more Eastern European and Western migrants compared to the numbers they were getting in the past
Basically, anyone can apply bias to economics. Be it pro or anti migrant since that's the focus here clearly. Logic says, "If your household is suffering, you can't afford guest. Seems too me like countries/government need to prioritize their household first.
As in the uk sweden gdp is not there problem with immigration, the change in a countries culture is the problem.
In regards of Ch 1: The deviation from the mean is important too.
His position is quite understandable he sees a Country as an economic zone in nothing else. People are widgets in our interchangeable you’re not actually people connected by blood Language culture etc. it’s just a shopping zone. What’s good for business is just good.
What good is a successful economy when crime religious and ethinc tensions are wide spread. Id rather live a simple life then worry about violence and crime 24/7, its even worse for women of course.
I love how informative this video is, such a different perspective from the rubbish we watch on mainstream media. However, cultural and religious imbalances have to be factored in, that I've got to point that out. Some migrants don't even try to fit in their new countries i.e learn a new language, how opposite genders relate, etc
But the comments are WIIIIILLLD!!!
this made 0 sense to me. They attacked the models but didn't offer an alternative on how cost of migration should be counted.
Is there a way to learn the editing process from you?
Thanks for your question. There are some fantastic resources out there to learn editing. I've learned a lot from skillshare.com for example. I do get this question quite often though, so maybe one day, I'll write a guide on my webpage andresacevedo.com - where I explain my process a bit and also point to specific guides and tutorials I've found useful.
Thank you so much. Maybe you can create a course teaching all this process in detail. Win Win
I am absolutely shocked at the lazy thinking and racism in many of the comments here. I studied economics just after 2008 economic crisis and was surprised to come to the realisation that almost all politics is a reaction to economics. For instance, if the majority of people are financially comfortable, they become politically moderate. However, when they are struggling financially, they look for answers and become far more radial. Unfortunately, the causes of the 2008 economic crisis were not addressed and instead, artificially low interest rates for 15 years have hidden the economic problems, which have been lurking like a monster, waiting to devour us.
So, 15 years ago, it was entirely predictable that the global economy would deteriorate and that the general public would look for simple, radical answers. Blaming immigrants is very, very convenient for politicians, and powerful businessmen who have profited immensely from our collective ignorance. It means we don't hold the people causing our problems accountable and instead allow them to continue exploiting us and running our societies into the ground. We need to get informed and watch videos like this with an open mind. The truth will set us all free but ignorance and hatred will enslave us. The choice is ours.
I agree. What should people in power have done to address the causes of the 2008 economic crisis? There's a lot, I assume, but what's the most blatant failure in your view?
@@TheMarketExit Well most people know that the 2008 housing bubble was caused by banks lending more freely and then packaging mortgages together and selling them as assets to investors and then people defaulting on their mortgages meant the assets were massively overvalued. But really that's just a symptom of a much broader, deeper problem with our current economic paradigm. It's too complex to go into in detail but in essence, since 1971 we have been using fiat currencies which devalue as more money is created (mostly by loans rather than printing). This is the primary cause of inflation.
Also every unit of currency comes with interest attached, which can only be paid back with the creation of more money, because by definition there isn't enough money to pay back the interest and the principle. In addition to this, every unit of currency is taxed again and again and again each time a transaction occurs, so to keep a supply of money, more money is needed. And if that wasn't enough, the rich, amass wealth and often keep it in unproductive assets such as housing, which increases inequality.
The only answer to this problem is to grow the economy. However, since about the year 2000, almost all growth in most major Western economies has been debt. It's fake growth which makes us all feel wealthier as our house price goes up but really, we are getting more and more in debt while bankers and rich investors become wealthier. This is why there isn't enough money for social security, housing, health care, eduction etc. etc. etc. and why inequality increases.
In fact, money is a medium of exchange, so any growth or profit one person earns, essentially means someone else loses some of their money. Those who are good at earning money become wealthier, quite literally at the expense of those who are good at spending it. We don't notice we are becoming poorer though, because the currency devalues so the numbers get bigger. Then we look at how much our house price has gone up, if we have a house, and congratulate ourselves on becoming richer, even though we have a huge mortgage and we are working for the bank. And if we haven't got a house, we are desperate to take on a cripplingly huge mortgage in order to get on the housing ladder while we still have a slim chance!
If we take the stock market, for example, it's seen great growth over the last few decades, when measured in US Dollars and other fiat currencies. However, these currencies have devalued by 93 - 97% since 1971 so it is quite literally a false economy. The merchant bankers make billions of dollars taking money from small investors who see the stock prices go up when measured in their currency and think they're going to strike it rich. However, if you measure the stock market against other, physical commodities such as wheat, oil, gold, coffee etc. etc. then this growth disappears.
So the problem is a systemic one that has no positive outcome as far as I can see. The only way to keep going is to keep growing, which is why economists and politicians always bang on about growth, growth, growth.
Unfortunately, perpetual growth is a physical impossibility. There are zero examples in the Universe that I am aware of where growth is perpetual, except for the Universe itself. And I am 99.9999999% recurring sure that eventually the Universe will stop growing too and will start being sucked into a black hole or something (any physicists reading, please feel free to correct me if I'm wrong. That's not my area of expertise). However, if we take the human body as an example, if we get continual growth, it's called cancer and if we can't stop it, then it will kill us. That is what is happening to our societies and to the environment and the animals around us. We are literally killing the world that supports us.
I am sad to say that no politicians can solve this problem without fundamentally changing our economic system because our system must have growth and growth is killing us. Unfortunately, the people in power usually have done very well out of the system (which is why they are powerful) and so have a vested interest in keeping the tired old system going as long as they possibly can. That's why they want us to blame immigrants and Muslim extremists and Covid and anything else that will distract us so they can continue profiting. I fear that we are going to head down a very dark road indeed as this madness plays out. I can only hope that eventually, some form of AGI will come along and figure out the solution because God knows, we don't seem to be able to!
Thank you so much for bringing some light to this rather sensitive matter
A very interesting perspective. Thank you!
It, of course, does not work like that. If it did, why not take in millions of unskilled migrants put them on welfare and grow the economy exponentially? Yes, if the government borrows money to pay migrants the economy grows, but perhaps you would agree that is not sustainable. It brings to mind how development economics was taught in Sweden in the early 1970s, there was only one model, that would work, anything else was capitalist exploitation. Tanzinia's Nyrere model was the only acceptable way forward. Any student who did not buy this wholesale would fail. That Nyrere's policies turned out to be a disaster has been buried and no one was ever held responsible. Hundreds of billions in SIDA aid were not only wasted but did harm. Your teaching is similar to those teaching development in the 1970s. Human memory is very short.
Wonderful and insightful content, looking forward to more videos like this one!
I've believed for a long time that immigration can be a source of economic gain, however, It's also a source of other issues if it's not regulated and controlled in a way that ensures assimilation, employment and ZERO impact on CRIME! Otherwise, yes, educated immigrants who work and respect the host countries laws and culture are a net benefit.
Väldigt intressant och uppfriskande. RUclips är tyvärr fullt med den motsatta åsikten.
Tack Kerstin :)
Certainly interesting take on the economics of migration. Seminal points I always understood given my parents (and family) migrated from the Caribbean to the UK and USA in the 1950's. The trends of the migration experience are remarkably similar today.
Its completely beyond politics.
As a Swede living in Ukraine I must disagree that "ALL" immigration is a benefit. Here there is a big difference having some western immigrants or russians with guns. Just saying.
Wait until you see their plans for replacing the young Ukranian men expended in the crazy - totally unnecessary war with the Russians.
Of course there's a difference. It's just that in the west, you're not allowed to notice.
@thomasvilhar7529
Which "Russians" with pistols are you talking about? And Russians and Ukrainians are both European groups and culturally pretty much the same! Especially from the perspective of Western Europeans, I can guarantee you that! As a Central European, I have millions of Russians and Ukrainians in my country than 100,000 Arabs or other non-Europeans.
This video is politically incorrect?? LEL
If it were politically incorrect you wouldn't have a patreon account!
Why should the Fool have money in his hand with no intention of buying Wisdom? (Proverbs 17:16)
For anybody wanting a realistic argument, backed by real research, I recommend the book “ Prey” by Ayaan Hrsi Ali.
Hi Andres, thank you very much for HQ work.
Lack of "real human" resources on one side and "cultural war" as real cost on the other side....and none of these can be solved with money. Therefore....It seems to me...that we as Europeans aren't as smart as we over-valuated ourselves to be....
Further no matter how the factual truth ughly is, abased on our experience, we must admit when learning from our mistakes that migration MUST be strictly selective and democratic system MUST finally and once for ever solve paradox of toleration towards non-democratic ideolgoies.
After we are done with these....EU might finally move on...and go through BIIIIIG reconciliaton...
Most commenters have not seen the entire video... The idea of actual physical, human and cultural means limiting immigration capacity makes a lot of sense. You can see it in schools where it just naturally takes a huge effort to help foreign-born kids get up to speed and where it is not so much about paying for the extra slot for the kid. The overstretching of "immigration capacities" will threaten, if it has not already harmed the idea of welcoming migrants over the long run as acceptability decreases and public consent is being dismantled. It would have been interesting to have at least a second view on this approach developed by the professor. If such a nuanced view existed... Not so much in order to oppose his view for the sake of debate, but to gain depth on this way of evaluating public policy. Kudos for taking on this hot topic!
That map in the thumbnail is the United States of Europe 🗺️
Great and informative work!👍🏻👏🏻 Thanks!
Thanks
Culture and values migth also be things you want to look at before you Open your border.
I thought at 8:40 when the construction worker was hosing a concrete bucket that it was a restaurant worker cooking chicken in a shopping cart with a blow torch.
😂
Just have competition instead of 'economic science' and debate. Have thousands of small countries competing to attract inhabitants. Competition will show what is smarter. Choice over debate. Break up countries into smaller countries. This can be done by the current states by granting independence.
So much insanity.
What about crimes?
Unsecurity?
Even if one migrant works and the rest of the family of 5 does not work, who pays the bill?
Everything has to be related to the environment where we live.
We need housing, food, transportation, water, heat, clothes, schools, hospitals, etc and everything has to be paid for in our society. I agree money and advertising are a bad idea. But this is the way we live. Too diffucult to live off grid.
Religion as a sort of leaderahip, sharia law. If people don''t have the same values, or prospects for the future it ia difficult to grown.
Migration is kind of modern colonialism and Romania is a good example for this. Brain drain is an EU issue, very true.
I just can't believe this statement is correct.
I hear what you're trying to say from an economic view point. But there's a costs happening to societies that can't be measured like this. And unfortunately it's the next generation that will pay the price.
Many said covid helped kill product globalisation. But now we have human globalisation.
Okay so this has been an interesting video and I‘m glad YT suggested it. From the title I was expecting the usual anti-immigration/culture war take on the issue. I‘m not entirely conviced about immigration really being a net positive though. You haven‘t addressed the elephant in the room, which is the willingness of countries to integrate immigrants into society and of course whether those newcomers themselves are both willing and able to adapt accordingly. As a German I obviously can’t speak for Sweden but there are additional costs to pay and if society isn’t willing to invest in areas like the school system, the outcome might be less favourable.
There seems to be this feeling that immigration is forced on society by a select group of people who might profit from it aka „the liberal urban elite“ and in a way there is some truth to that. Economic arguments won’t persuade these people, especially if their own situation doesn’t improve. That however is also part of the cost IMHO. Again thanks for your video though!
Thanks a lot for your interesting and polite comment! I think you make a good point that a non-restrictive immigration policy is likely to seem elitist and irresponsible, especially when it's combined with austerity. Where in Germany are you from?
@@TheMarketExit I live in Berlin next to the Neukölln district which is infamous for its problems blamed on immigration. Some are of course blown out of proportion by the conservative press but it would be naive to not acknowledge some of the facts. I recently read Didier Eribon‘s excellent „Return to Reims“ which deals with the realities of the French working class and a lot of what he described sounded similar. The alienatien, a segregated society with unequal fortunes based on descent. No social mobility for the underclass, resulting in high crime rates and outright hostility towards education and western/bourgeois values.
The video talks about GDP, not GDP per capita. "How much they get out from welfare systems..."? Do these welfare systems include the power stations, the water treatment plants and water and power distribution networks. Do these welfare systems include sanitation and telecommunications? Because these comforts did not fall from the sky, and the migrants did not pay for them.
Migrants contribute to the need for still more infrastructure that everyone has to pay for, not just the newcomers that make it necessary. Of course, the construction companies love their taxpayer funded projects, as do their employees, many of whom are foreign. And the infrastructure counts as GDP, even though it is paid for by taxpayers.
The government got into debt to show a similar increase in GDP?
So crime going up 20x doesn't matter?
It hasn't.
Just say that it hasn't 😂😂😂
@@TheMarketExit Are you kidding? Wow... you are stupid or completely brainwashed.
Just so you understand the point made by the authors. Gangland gun battles were common in Sweden in the 1990’s. What you can see with your own eyes is an illusion. 😂
It creates jobs for the police. And construction of prisons, prison guards. Everyone wins. And the local women get a larger dating pool to choose from.
Every interesting.
Sweden got some cheap labour, but not from the Islamist migration... they only brought exponential increase in violent crimes, worst of all, sexual. I dare you to face the Swedish women who were assaulted or the families of young guys who got shot or stabbed, and show them this chart of 2% annual GDP growth that somehow these gangs contributed to, according to you.
Any European living in Europe, earning less than €150,000 can tell this is absolute nonsense.
I don't understand is this video pro or against immigration?
My favorite comment so far.
Hello, Andres. How are you? I’m always keen to see your new content. Dr. Peo Hansen has an interesting approach about macroeconomics, though it is not a new one. Migrants do contribute to a more prosperous society, since they add new real resources to an economy that has not reached complete efficiency. From my point of view, Dr. Hansen omits a very strong argument against migration during his interview: there are adding costs to public budget when it comes to public security. Organized crime activity can make some areas less attractive to allocate these real resources. And it is also well known that in Sweden, there are neighborhoods that are simply isolated from the rest of the Swedish society. And it seems that this did not happened before mass migration. It would be interesting also to listen to someone from these agencies to contest Dr. Hanses’ ideas. Especially the authors of SVERIGES RIKSBANK WORKING PAPER SERIES 405, that affirm that a refugee (economic) immigration shock yields large initial negative (positive) effects on GDP per capita and employment rates.
Best regards from a Brazilian economist.
Your points are valid, the aspect that is missing tho - there are two waves in migration, Gen 1 usually work lower tier jobs that are not desirable by the local population and some high skilled jobs but usually don't assimilate to local culture so the rate of Gen 1 migration need to controlled to limit isolated pockets/ crime areas don't develop, Gen 2 should've grown up with locals and should assimilated with marginal difference, Gen 3+ should be indistinguishable from locals - failure comes from the lack of existing programs for assimilation and integration that becomes more pronounced as you add more ppl to it, example 1 migrant who hasn't assimilated and didn't find a job, gf, etc might steal - 5 of them will form a small gang, 1000 = organized gangs. so the root of the issue is the non existent integration plan.
@@osamataha336you live in a fantasy land where "integration" is an empty word, like systemic racism. No one knows what that is, no one ever saw it work and no one knows what is exactly.
Have you wondered if they want to integrate? Why are third gen immigrants in France more into religious fanaticism than their parents? Apparently we need to spend money and create programs for the outsiders not to commit crimes, although that was never needed for the natives. What about this crazy idea: don't bring them.
Hi thanks for your comment. I'm good thanks, how are you?
I do have a pretty strong view on your comment, and I will get back to you once I have time.
@@TheMarketExit LOL you have a strong view and will post a real comment at an unknown point in the future potentially never
Sweden now has more gun violence than any country in Europe after Albania, and more bombs and grenades then any country not at war, after Mexico. I'd say the price is pretty high.
13:30 pardon me WHAT? for the last 30 years AT LEAST all politicians short of right wing to far-right praised immigration ..
What a load of WEF claptrap.
Why Europe? Why not other Muslim countries?
because they are conquerors not refugees
Great then, keep taking them in. Other countries would be happy to export them and even pay for a one way ticket.
You can chew this over however you want but the fact is that the European people have had no democratic say in the matter.
What do you mean by that? Haven't there in all European countries been democratic elections where parties with restrictive immigration policies have been on the ballot?
Just like George Carlnin used to be ironic about them...about the "symble-minded" people...
Very nicely done! I always ask myself how we can explain the concepts, like this in this video, the people who are not interested in understanding this. Because I know I can’t make them watch an amazing video like this because they’re a lot of presumptions they have that need to be challenged first….. .
Thank you for the comment! I made another video where I looked into the science of how people change their minds to try to figure out whether it's even possible to change someone's mind through videos like this. And my take on the science is that... it's not possible, until it is. That's why I feel like it makes sense to keep trying. And, in any case, I mainly make these videos because I find it too much fun to stop.
Thanks! I made another video on propaganda bs and how to do it!
This channel replies to its own fake comments look at all the dots……. .
Loved this. Please keep making videos. They are so enlightening❤
This must be Sweden's version of the BBC. Do they expect anyone to beleive this I wonder?.
Surely it is about cultural and security and crime issues!
WHO ARE THE IMMIGRANTS???????????????????? THAT IS THE REAL ISSUE
Don Hansen
Studying immigration for over thirty years and debating a MIT Professor that had just recently published a book on C-Span in 2013 I can assure this puff piece is bologna,you ALWAYS have to look at the source of the data and who is funding it and I bet you this is true with this
Oh and that Professor walked away because it was pretty evident during our dialogue he didn't even do the research most of it was provided to him.