Get ready for the depression we need to have. GFC was a debt problem and all we have done since was lower rates and pump more debt. Cash rate is not historically high- it’s a debt problem
To be fair if we lived in a free market without massive immigration he would have been correct. High interest rates = lower house prices in every other era except today.
He underestimated Australia's mentally ill addiction to real estate. When borrowing costs go up by 425 basis points from a floor of 0.10, in any normal environment the resultant constricting of borrowing capacity by 30 - 35% should easily translate into 20% falls in house prices. Australia has the biggest housing superbubble in the world, aided and abetted by consecutive state and federal governments.
He underestimated the number of braindead fckwits in this country who have no economic sense whatsoever to realise that paying 0.10% cash rate prices for houses in a 4.35% cash rate environment is the pinnacle of retardation.
Yes, he said 15-20% declines in real terms. In 2022 the AU home price index dropped 7% in nominal terms and 13% in real terms with the bump in inflation, before the market turned up. So he was off the mark by 2%. Good luck finding a better forecaster.
@tbone5654 he said: "house prices would have to correct by 15% to 25% if---heaven forbid---the RBA ever lifted its target cash rate by 100 basis points or more," "But our central case would be a circa 20 per cent decline after the first 100 basis points of hikes." LOL.
@@user-bb7ur3ls6y lol. You think that's the only thing he had to say about housing in 2022. Go back and watch a good range of his interviews across different platforms in 2022.
The wolverine is always a good listen.
Get ready for the depression we need to have. GFC was a debt problem and all we have done since was lower rates and pump more debt. Cash rate is not historically high- it’s a debt problem
Always the smartest guy in the room. Great interview.
He speaks with such conviction. I remember him banging the drum off a 20%+ property market crash only last year....
Typical active fund manager who most likely underperform the market most of the time
To be fair if we lived in a free market without massive immigration he would have been correct. High interest rates = lower house prices in every other era except today.
@@TheCantoneseInvestor I think he's negative in a year when S&P returned +30% Clueless fool who wants to sell his underperforming fund.
750k new immigrants. Never underestimate bureaucrats doing s**
He underestimated Australia's mentally ill addiction to real estate. When borrowing costs go up by 425 basis points from a floor of 0.10, in any normal environment the resultant constricting of borrowing capacity by 30 - 35% should easily translate into 20% falls in house prices. Australia has the biggest housing superbubble in the world, aided and abetted by consecutive state and federal governments.
Fantastic interview. Great work Tom. When a guest is firing like Christopher, just let them rip!
Excellent Chris compulsory listening
rates need to double
We are seeing a rapidly slowing economy, and unemployment will rise. Demand will slow. How does this lead to higher interest rates?
How much better is Joye than Kouked!
Thank you 🙏🙏🙏
Excellent interview
This guy has been consistently and embarrassingly wrong. Remember when he predicted massive property price falls? LOL.
He underestimated the number of braindead fckwits in this country who have no economic sense whatsoever to realise that paying 0.10% cash rate prices for houses in a 4.35% cash rate environment is the pinnacle of retardation.
Yes, he said 15-20% declines in real terms. In 2022 the AU home price index dropped 7% in nominal terms and 13% in real terms with the bump in inflation, before the market turned up. So he was off the mark by 2%. Good luck finding a better forecaster.
@tbone5654 he said:
"house prices would have to correct by 15% to 25% if---heaven forbid---the RBA ever lifted its target cash rate by 100 basis points or more,"
"But our central case would be a circa 20 per cent decline after the first 100 basis points of hikes."
LOL.
@@user-bb7ur3ls6y lol. You think that's the only thing he had to say about housing in 2022. Go back and watch a good range of his interviews across different platforms in 2022.
@@tbone5654 you must be Joye's burner account.
if this guy reckons that the only way to get inflation down is if unemployment goes up then maybe he should quit and join the dole queue?
Unemployment does realistically seem too low for healthy long term outcomes.
He knows the other option is for gov's to stop spending like drunken sailors but fat chance of the happening.
@@domd2304 4% isn't that low.
this guys is soooooo up himself it's almost embarassing