Category 6 Hurricanes? How Extreme Jet Streams Are Wreaking Havoc
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- Опубликовано: 24 ноя 2020
- Disrupted jet streams have made weather worldwide more extreme.
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Dr. Jennifer A. Francis: www.jenniferafrancis.com/
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Video by Bryce Plank
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Warming Arctic air is disrupting the jet stream, causing more extreme weather: heatwaves, droughts, tornados, category 6 hurricanes, rainfall events, floods, wildfires, snowstorms, blizzards.
Full transcript:
(Bryce) The region experiencing the fastest warming is the Arctic. At the same time, areas like the Eastern United States have been experiencing colder than normal temperatures at times during the winter. This seemingly strange phenomenon is happening because warming arctic air is causing the jet stream, that regulates weather here in North America, to behave in more extreme ways.
(Dr. Francis) Because of the effect of the rapid arctic warming on the jet stream, the jet stream being this river of wind that encircles the northern hemisphere. It takes these north-south swings as it as it goes around the northern hemisphere. And one of the ways the rapid arctic warming is affecting the jet stream is to make those big north south swings be big more often. And when we have one of those big southward dips in the jet stream during the winter it allows the cold air from the arctic to penetrate farther south. And we see this happening more frequently over the Eastern U.S. and over Eastern Asia in connection with this rapidly warming arctic. When that temperature difference is really strong then that's when we see very strong jet streams. And when it's weaker, like when the arctic warms much faster than the areas farther south, then we tend to see the jet stream weaken and when it's weaker it tends to want to take these bigger north-south swings. They tend to get stuck in place for days and sometimes even weeks. Whatever weather you're experiencing relative to your position in that wave, you tend to have those same weather conditions for a long time.
(Bryce) The jet stream is also slowing down in the summertime causing three consecutive years of unprecedented hurricanes: 2017's Harvey, 2018's Florence, and 2019's Dorian. Each storm got "stuck" and dumped record rainfall on Houston, the Carolinas, and the Bahamas.
(Dr. Francis) The slow movement of Dorian was more related to the fact that in summer time we're seeing the jet stream weaken over the continents pretty dramatically. And the jet stream winds create the highs and the lows that steer hurricanes. In that particular case, there was a very weak high pressure area sitting off Cape Hatteras for several days and it sort of blocked it from heading north. And then that high pressure weakened and it allowed Dorian to finally start moving northward. So the paths of hurricanes depend completely on what the jet stream is doing. And when those winds in the atmosphere are very weak, it makes it very hard to forecast where a hurricane's going to go.
(Bryce) And a couple years before that Harvey just dumping.
(Dr. Francis) Yep.
(Bryce) Feet of-
(Dr. Francis) Yep, just a year before.
(Bryce) Just sitting over Houston. So is that what we have to look forward to?
(Dr. Francis) I think we need to look forward to having it happen more often for sure. And there's been a couple recent papers that have actually documented this trend. So it does appear that hurricanes are tending to be slower. And so the tendency for these storms to just sit in one place for a while is increasing, and it makes lots of sense--it all fits the story.
(Bryce) Is there a hurricane beyond a category five that we could see?
(Dr. Francis) Yeah, there's some discussion of creating a cat six.
(Bryce) Wow.
Dr. Francis) Yep there is talk of that. Going back to that water vapor I was talking about. So when the ocean temperatures are really warm there's also a lot of water vapor in the atmosphere and that's the main fuel to generate a hurricane. There's a lot of other factors, but the main one that you need for a hurricane to form, and to become strong, is that very warm water and a lot of moisture in the atmosphere.
My full, wide-ranging conversation with Dr. Francis is available to watch now, ad-free, through the link below on my new premium site. Membership gets you full early access to every episode of the Climate Change Solutions show and allows me to continue making them in these uncertain times. The small fee also unlocks links to all the research I do for each episode, so you can easily venture down some of the many rabbit holes I've been exploring. Thanks for watching. For TDC, I'm Bryce Plank
I'm so glad you have resumed posting your content!
OMG!!!! 🥰 Bryce plank is BACK 😍😍
Irma and Dorian were the two Category 6 hurricanes in those three years. Irma was operationally a category 6 for well over a day, in fact 33 hours were spent at a maximum wind speed of 185+ miles per hour. Category 6: 185-214 mph; Category 7: >=215 mph. Dorian became category 6 and only stayed there for six hours before weakening back down into a category 5 hurricane. Irma was docked a Category in post analysis, being officially docked to category 5 with 180 mph winds in the Tropical Cyclone Report.
Dorian and Irma were CAT 5 Hurricanes not CAT 6 Hurricanes
besides that there's no such thing as a CAT 6 Hurricane and there would never be a CAT 6 Hurricane no matter how strong a tropical cyclone gets
It could be the hypothetical Hypercane aka Huge Apocalyptic Monster Destructive Major Hurricane with sustain wind speeds of 500+ MPH or greater?
it would still be considered a CAT 5
since it only goes to CAT 5 on the Saffri-Simpson Scale and CAT 5s have unlimited power or don't have limits when it comes down to their sustain wind speeds which means the sustain wind speeds of CAT 5s can go high as much as they can go without changing Categories or Category levels
Can't wait for the new megacities videos.
Hi Shackel. I can't wait to make more. Soon I hope. My new top ten emitters video has a megacity vibe: ruclips.net/video/RyjV-Kx0frM/видео.html
Yeah! More megacity videos. I suggest St Petersburg Russia. It's not that big but it's a good city
I miss the old days when summer wasnt as hot as it is now :(
After a long time...
Bella analisi terramaricola vskb 45 alpha 472
Interestingly enough, fossil fuel use is correlated with lower deaths due to natural disasters. Countries who used to have tens of thousands die due to hurricanes have dramatically lowered their death rates due to increased fossil fuel use. Is the correlation causal? Well, energy is what is really needed, and so considering that fossil fuels are the sources of energy it is appropriate to say that fossil fuels are the proximate cause and energy is the ultimate cause.
What are you saying?
The more probable cause is that increased fossil fuel use means the country is becoming more developed -> and when they are more developed, they have more means to protect themselves from hurricanes.
Also, climate change from fossil fuel use is not a local problem - it contributes to a global problem. So saying 'a country using more fossil fuels but not getting any ramifications within that country' is like saying 'a country that dumps nuclear waste in their oceans does not get any ramifications' - the problem is being pushed away to other areas in the world that measurably get affected.
@@watchingperson5357 "Developed" means an increase in energy usage, thus enabling the consequent construction of sturdier buildings, levees, warning systems, roads for evacuation, etc. which as of now depend on the utilization of fossil fuels. There's nothing controversial about what I've stated.
@@franksang5014 ohh ok I see what you were saying. Sorry I misinterpreted your initial comment.
Double edge sword ei??
Gaf
there's no such thing as a CAT 6 Hurricane and there would never be a CAT 6 Hurricane
now you want to talk about Tornadoes?
that's a whole different story