Cyclone chances increasing for India this week
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- Опубликовано: 26 сен 2024
- Cyclone rumblings continue across the Indian Ocean, with Cyclone Ialy continuing its push near the Seychelles, a borderline tropical cyclone very close to the equator to the east, and a potential major cyclone for India late this week.
Cyclone Ialy is starting to weaken, and is still pulling further west than expected, bringing into question whether cyclone impacts might be felt in Tanzania, Kenya, and even Somalia later in the week. Model projections still show the storm's remnants reaching the equator and entering the northern hemisphere, throwing rain along the east African coast, which may lead to flooding concerns.
An area of interest near the British Indian Ocean territory is showing signs of becoming a tropical cyclone, and contains storm force winds. This would be quite comfortably the closest storm to the equator to form in the South Indian Ocean, but it is not likely to affect land and will be very brief in its existence.
An area of interest is likely to develop quickly during the week in the Bay of Bengal, and may rapidly intensify over very warm waters as it propels itself towards northern India. At the moment, models are suggesting a landfall in West Bengal.
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12:58 More accurately that cyclone hit the Chittagong region in 1997, it didn’t affect the mayanmar. It affected Bangladesh. That cyclone also followed the same path as 1991 Bangladesh cyclone.
Well well well, ilay has surprisingly survived for a bit of time
From West Bengal, India ❤️
I've got a bad feeling about the NIO TC...
Meanwhile EPAC and WPAC still remains inactive, but WPAC could finally spin up a TC later on. Questions remain when it'll form, because if no WPAC TCs form by this coming Saturday, May 25, this year will beat 2016 for the 4th latest start on record, and puts 1998 a run for its record too, on May 28. Keep those two dates in mind if a WPAC TC does eventually spin up...
Good to see thr channel stull going strong with all the drama
Strong Cyclone Remal and Strong Typhoon Ewiniar are the potential Category 3+ storms
Chances for it coming to west bengal
SWIO just refuses to die
real
Its still in season
Thanks to High temperature and a Positive IOD
@@parvadhami980yes and fortunately there's high wind shear
very true.
Similarity to Yaas?
Yaas formed further north
@@parvadhami980 Oh...The forecasted track is somewhat resembles Yaas.
Wpac ❤❤🎉
91S looks lopsided
It's under 30-40 Kt Wind shear
Here under 1 hour :D
Didn't they move up the start date for the Atlantic season? It starts May 15th now
Not really, the NHC decided to start issuing advisories at May 15th since the 2021 ATL season... The WMO still kept the June 1st start date for the ATL, though its unknown when that start date can be moved yet... Hopefully it can clear things up!
Might be similar to Mocha in the North Indian Ocean
Nope neither in intensity nor in track
The environment condition
Bay of Bengal cyclone 🌀 Remal Category 3 wind speed?
Category 1 or 2 (70-90 knots)
Oh no this better not become a category 5 cyclone
I hope not, but with the high SSTs there, that's just one ingredient confirmed for rapid strengthening... We'll see if the shear, size of the storm, will be favorable to us or the storm...
@@notmrpopular0099 How high is the sea surf temperatures in the B.O.B?
Not good, 30C+ literally throughout the BOB. Some places even touching 32C! Even worse, some parts of the BOB is over 2C+ above normal!
@@notmrpopular0099 looks like the parts of coastal India, mayamar/Burma and Bangladesh is going to suffer 5x worse that the Atlantic
Despite sheer or maybe not, the NIO cyclone can STILL reach cat 2-4. But we will see in a few days. Also mrpopular i have a question, does moderate wind sheer, even a slight number of it, can it still affect a cat 4+ cyclone?
Why Isaac was not retired ???