The Long Sad History of Tech Bubbles
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- Опубликовано: 7 фев 2025
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Good news!
If you were too slow to snap up Nvidia stock before the AI boom - or were too skeptical of Bitcoin to get in early back in the 2000s - don’t worry! The next tech bubble is just around the corner!
We might like to think we can spot a market bubble a mile away because we’ve had so many. The signs are always the same!
-- Sources ---
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12. liretro.com/co...
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15. / the-life-and-death-of-...
16. • Excavating the Atari E...
17. www.xda-develo...
18. fee.org/articl...
19. www.thestreet....
20. www.mozilla.or...
21. finance.yahoo....
22. www.fundable.c...
23. www.latimes.co...
24. www.goldmansac...
25. www.goldmansac...
26. www.sfgate.com...
27. www.wired.com/...
28. nypost.com/202...
29. www.theguardia...
30. www.vox.com/23...
31. • The Big Problem With C...
32. • King of the Hill on Ca...
33. www.investoped...
34. www.cnbc.com/2...
35. www.imd.org/re...
36. www.theguardia...
37. www.theinforma...
38. www.investoped...
39. www.dw.com/en/...
40. www.startupdai...
41. www.theguardia...
42. gfmag.com/data...
43. www.bbc.com/ne...
44. finance.yahoo....
45. www.goldmansac...
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It's time for us to stop investing in tech bubbles and invest in something else, like tech balloons for instance.
No Brother. Invest in Agriculture, Become Self Reliant and store seeds also harvested produce of grains, fruit, vegetable. You can grow them on Terrace or in your Village.
@@combinedstudy6427Me to bro when I heard the Neolithic revolution just dropped
I like your thinking, solar panel covered Zeppelin. Those solar panels are heavy, so we’d have to fill it with something really light like hydrogen. Can’t imagine anything going wrong
@@Planetside223 It sounds fire, that will surely bring us to another technology BOOM!
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The green energy bubble has the "SOLAR FREAKING ROADWAYS" ad playing in my head
How about the floor that makes electricity when you step on it
@@stachowi I had that, every time I walked across my carpet I would get zapped by the door handle, annoying lol. I remember the pizoelectric floor thing, it was supposed to be the future of energy.
Solar's profitability is definitely highly dependent on who and where it is installed. In my housing coop we installed €40,000 worth of solar and saved €5,600 in one year, we'll make back our money in 7yrs 2mths. If the break after 10yrs that's a 40% ROI. If they last 30 320%
PV is not a bubble, but small home PV cannot be economical yet without subsidies. Bigger PV install are
@@ABa-os6wm Domestic PV is economical. The price to fit the panels is starting to dominate so we aren't going to see more massive price decreases.
Problem is, subsidies are going everywhere. If youre subsidising gas, then you can't compare it to the price of unsubsidised PV.
Time for everything to become more expensive while salaries barely move again.
Being reliant on a salary is basically living on the bottom of the financial food chain (no offense). See Cantillion effect - the freshly printed money with highest purchasing power comes to small group of companies and then trickles down until it loses most of it - then it becomes the salary. Interesting fact: There were times when Roman soldiers were paid not in gold, but in salt. This was called salarium - hence the word salary.
@@LiborTinka Sure, too bad I don't have a business, nor do I want to work 12-16 hours a day 7 days a week to make one with an overwhelming probability of failure...
This is the speech of a person who doesn't save or invest. I'm from China, where people are much poorer, yet we save almost half of our paycheck and invest. Now I'm in the US, and the 401k/IRA savings and investment vehicles are insanely powerful. I came to the US as a dirt poor student, now I'm a multi millionaire thanks to living very frugally, savings and investing over 30% of my pay after graduation. Most Americans are just terrible spenders and have no basic financial skills that almost all asians are taught since we were little.
@@xiphoid2011 I do save and invest and when I don't have extra expenses I save half of my salary too, even more considering I pay rent. Not from the USA btw, from a country that is both richer and poorer than china.
The automobile industry had a bubble issue in the 1920's. It was perhaps one of the largest. At the time there were hundreds of car companies that went under.
China now has a gazillion of EV manufacturers, probably 90% will go bust eventually...
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@@HoustonMongeonTHANKS FOR THE $20
11:25 This is a common retelling of the video game crash that lacks significant context. The console and to a lesser extent, arcade industry absolutely experienced a crash, but video games as a whole did not. Home computers were thriving at this time, as were people making games for them. Many console players actually moved to playing on home computers as a result of this. It was a significant crash in a segment of the industry, but video games did not crash universally, not even close.
Also while consoles crashed after nintdeno fixed it in like two seconds from our perspective... The game consoles pre crash are still very mucxh alive and foundly remended by those who don't play them today. Or own the many collection of those games made for modern systems along with ateri is still very much in besnus it never quite recoved but still... so in hind sight while tragic at the time as soon as nitendo fixed it with like their 3rd gen home cosole or so depends on hw you count it... It boomed again and is corently just chuggling along heaving seemly run out of growth potantainal but is no where near crashing again despite all tghose doomer online... so yeah while it was a major shock at the time now adays it's just a footnote in console history that no one cares about anymore.
Also Sega didn't enter the market a decade later, in fact when he mentioned that he showed the SG-1000 which predated the Famicom by 3 years and Sega themselves have been making electronic games since the 60's .
It was more like an Atari crash, not really a video game crash.
Yes...but console made upt the vast majority of gamer back then
I wish trains would be modernized and relevant again. Cheap transport for the masses and modern trains easily travel at 150-160km/h very cheaply.
In France some trains (TGV = train à grande vitesse or something like that) go to 300km /h
If you could take your car with you on long train trips, it could work. Amtrak does this on one line running from the northeast to Florida.
@@marklynch8781 cool.
@@callistec8183 that's expensive, complicated and not really needed. 160km/h is not fast for modern trains and it's cheap at the same time, but 160km/h is fast in general.
A major corporation would have to be able to make a 10 trillion dollar IPO for it to work in the US.
Instead, we get 10 billion dollar IPOs for bs ai.
Nvidia is like the Levi or the shovel seller of the Gold Rush days, they were already established as Graphic Processing Units, it's just that dedicated processing units were (discovered?) better suited for Crypto Minings and now AI.
I do expect others (like Lee or Wrangler jeans) to join the party, but Nvidia did not create AI or crypto mining, but rather, AI/crypto discovered that Nvidia made the best pair of jeans. Just my 10 cents (Inflation, you know...)
pretty much the second-best position to be in in a bubble, after the guy that sold at the peak
CUDA (the language used to program the cards) was a 10 year struggle to convince investors bc they only could see graphics cards, Jensen knew the power in parallel processing. He had the balls to see it through
It's ironic talking about tech bubble investments while cutting to a subscription box for bread.
I'm not criticising. But subscription boxes are a tech bubble of a business model.
I just use sponsor block. But man that looks fucking stupid. lol.
Being a customer of an overinflated company is much safer than being an investor in one
Please explain why it is a bubble of a business model. I hope you wont become a much paler magpie by explaining :)
That is a good service. There is a clearly useful product to be had, and it can go down silently later.
"...when workers gave their lives to lay tracks across the wild west."
I think there's a bit of a difference between giving your life for a goal you believe in and having your life taken through inadequate safety standards created by people who don't care at all about the human cost of their wealth.
Yeah this guy has a clear capitalist bias
@@Nosirrbro
It doesn't matter what you call your system of distribution of resources once the sociopaths are running it. The results are the same: A very small group of people with control over most of the resources and a very large group of people living in de facto slavery.
― Me, 2005
@@Nosirrbro
Also:
The only significant difference between capitalism and communism is that communism _starts off_ with a small number of very powerful people controlling the distribution of all of the resources and capitalism gives you the opportunity to avoid that if everyone is alert and doesn't expect to get something for nothing. Sadly, humans tend to be very short-sighted.
― Me, 2010
@ Or you can structure the communist state anti-hierarchically and avoid heads of states, one party or two party states, and electoral systems that abstract voting power away from everyone or have workplace democracy and then nobody is going to vote those rich handful into existence because it’s against their interests! But then it gets destroyed by richer to start with capitalist countries so actually that plan doesn’t really work either
@@MyName-tb9oz I'm not too sure of what this sentence means, could you explain it to me?
It's crazy to call trains a tech bubble considering how efficient they are.
They arent efficient though.
From london to glasglow you can drive a motorcycle or a toyota prius cheaper than an economy class ticket.
Then you drive that veichle around.
Before covid, kenosha to chicago was a 14$ round trip, this is one of the most efficient rail trips in the US. 14$ buys me 2 weeks worth of gas on my brand new $6000 motorcycle with a warenty.
My motorcycle gets about 250 miles of range on 7$ of gas. And i can take it off road.
When you have to build an entire infrastructure around a train then it is not efficient, you just MADE everything else work for one thing.
@@CowboyJuiceAnd yet in East Asia they're extremely efficient. And in Europe we find them much cheaper than cars. Also, there's the cargo trains.
Maybe the problem isn't the trains but something else?
@lordMartiya in Asia they overwhelmingly use more small CC motorcycles than trains.
I'm from east Asia, I was born less than 500 miles from Tokyo. I used soviet era trains.
But there IS something else. Colonialism. The way that European cities grew to their extent is mostly due to the pillaging of the southern hemisphere. The buildings of Belgium was built with the blood of the Congolese. Allowing them to grow in a pre car era.
Now if you actively look at food production and the production of resources done in the world, you will very quickly notice that those regions are the most impoverished and tend to have vast wealth gaps based in race.
So the hidden thing under the surface is that you're racist as shit for not looking at brown people.
@@CowboyJuice can you move tons of cargo on that motor cycle or car?
@connorferguson2269 car, yes. Truck absolutely.
Can you move tons of cargo into the bay of a small workshop with a train?
the overhyped railways directly made me think of the "hyperloop"
tesla stock has almost doubled in the last month. i wonder why since tesla didnt double its profits.
@@the0ne809 I don't know. Did the CEO just get assigned to start whacking away at government officials that don't provide Tesla funding?
Ah well. That doesn't appear on the bottom line. I guess investors are all just stupid.
@@the0ne809Since Elon is on Trump's good side, there's speculations that Elon will receive kickbacks from the President-elect
@@hansonlee5847 like getting rid of regulations, more welfare for his companies, I mean subsidies, tax cuts and close all the cases. is that what you are talking about? I guess those almost 300 million dollars spent on the campaign must be for something lol
The expectations of profits simply from enjoying a permissive government indicates a growing bubble.
Strictly speaking, the video game crash's locus was the North American market. European and Japanese markets were not as severely impacted which lead to companies from the latter dominating the console market in the following two decades.
A bubble is only called a bubble after they busted
A bubble isn’t that hard to spot before it bursts. It’s just the timing that’s difficult. They can last longer than expected.
@@lateralus6512bitcoin 😃
No. Look at the AI bubble. There are plenty of people calling it out.
@@geoarambula139was about to say, ain't no WAY someone says that if they've EVER heard is AI or NFTs at ANY point along their lifestyle. Those were pretty clearly bubbles from minute 1 to their inevitable collapse.
This is why I put my Life Savings and my Children's college funds into the Hawk Tuah Coins! That money is GUARANTEED TO ROLL IN!
Found this channel today. Really enjoyed this! Thank you so much! Subscribed!!!
Actually, before the railways tech bubble, there was a canals tech bubble. And before that, there were dual funny money tech bubbles (well, business bubbles) in England and France.
Don’t ever quote the New York Post as a news source. That paper is a very heavy handed in its over the top bias.
Yeah. Its not much better than the Daily Mail.
Railroad were the greatest bubble of the late 1800s
There is a really good chance that some ten or twenty years from now we will have a fusion bubble.
Fusion bubble already burst.
AI has a lot of potential, but how do you make money from new models? open source models are already not too far behind what open ai can do and the recent 200 dollars a month they ask for just reeks of desperation.
Fun fact: the guy who popularized the story of the tulip bubble pushed the railway bubble.
Ironic
I understand this wasn't an in-depth video about the 1983 console crash but there were a couple of inaccuracies. First video games would still have been a thing without NES success, since the crash was mostly in America(which is why it was Japanese companies that dominated the market even today) and it only affected the consoles not arcades or computer games. Second while showing the SG-1000 you claim that Sega entered the market a decade later, the SG-1000 was released in 1983 (which is why it wasn't brought to America because of the crash), which was 3 years before the Famicom, and the Master system was released in 1986 and the Genesis was released in 1989, further first video game was an arcade in 1973, but even in the 60's they had other electronic games and in the 50's (back when they were the American company SErvice GAmes) they had pinball games. So not only has Sega been in the game industry longer than Nintendo, but they've been making consoles longer than Nintendo. And even if you're only considering their breakout console the Genesis, that was only 3 years later not a decade. Actually a decade later the PlayStation was eating everyone's lunch (which is crazy to think how fast technology moved in the 90's)
Amazing video, well researched but you can easily condense it under 12 mins
5:52 AI upscaling on that pic was rough
Unfortunately, I missed out on the tech bubble of sundial alarm clocks and sundial wrist watches. At least I'm ready to invest in high tech slide rules, I hear they have a great future in the 21st century.
If planes were taxed appropriately for their carbon output, rails would be doing fine in Europe.
You don't even need a lot of tech to start a bubble. The first one recorded in history is the tulip mania in the Netherlands and you might know that the Netherlands are still famous for their pulips. Right now there is a Dubai chocolate bubble.
I would have loved if you talked about the tulip mania bubble.. actually comedic parallels to our financial bubbles now
Yet those tulips brought 400 years of prosperity for Netherlands. Read Charles Mackay's works and study history. Don't parrot media narratives. A bubble is a bull market in which you don't have a position.
The harsh reality is that the new tech companies are NOT using private credit like previous crashes. They are just printing money. The companies paying the tech companies will crash first, and only if they themselves are focused of speculative investment (like Expedia, largest google ads purchases).
What's the newest one?
Another sign of things going bad and also can look into this real interesting.
Nuclear fusion and Space Industry may be next bubble market.
Some thoughts about "Green Energy"
1. Wind and Solar produces non-recyclable waste, has high upfront cost, long break even points, and harvests an energy supply that is intermittent and disperse. This means you need a battery and a large expensive collection apparatus to collect a small amount of energy. This makes it relatively terrible as a financial investment compared to stocks, or bonds.
2. Batteries are near their physical and chemical limits. A Lithium Ion Battery will never reach the energy density of gasoline, because internal combustion only has to carry one half: the fuel, the electron acceptor in the reaction is oxygen, which does not have to be contained carried in the vehicle. A battery must contain both the cationic and anionic sides, the electron supply and acceptor. That means the theoretical maximum energy density of a battery is half that of gasoline. Further batteries contain toxic and expensive materials, and dendrite formation means most battery systems have a comparatively short service life.
Green energy is a terrible investment if it is in the form of solar and wind. However hydroelectric, nuclear energy, and geothermal are wonderful and can be profitable and sustainable. If you want sustainable energy and don't live near a river or geothermal area, nuclear is the only practical green energy option.
Think of it like the gold rush. The investors are like those who set out west in search of gold not all got wealthy others evened out while others lost everything even their lives at times during harsh winters
Autonomous robots and robotic limb replacements will be the next big thing combined 👍
When many countries provided incentives for railroad construction around 1830s and 1840s, many people started invested heavily in railroad stocks and bonds, often with little understanding of the risks involved. There is so many speculation like happen today. Many of projects were build not based on thorough economic analysis or realistic projections of demand. As result there was an oversupply of rail capacity. In the UK, the Railway Mania of the 1840s ended with the Panic of 1847, which was partly caused by the overextension of credit for railroad investments. Many railroad companies went bankrupt.
Its simple. Whatever change is not permanent and profits are redistributed. Peak is peak and its WHAT drives cheap or sometimes smart money where they belong.
The Worlds first public railway system was "the Stockton & Darlington railway." it opened on 27th September 1825.
10:24 "Young zoomers and baby alphas have been recorded using a gameboy screen as an input" this sentence really confused me but I think it means some people grow up with touch screens, so they assume that gameboys are touchscreen
I'm still waiting for news about AI companies making profit or even expands.
Teslas is only relevant because they keep the promise of self driving alive, Google Samsung and Apple are in direct competition for the best mobile ai features, palantir is making profits with ai, nvidia Microsoft and Amazon are making millions. All the start ups that could grow into billion dollar Companies. You have to be blind not to see profits.
23:02 - meh, if you plot it on a log scale you see the cycles - not saying it’s a good thing, but it lost 80% and it’s now back above 2017 levels, so not really representative of the NFT crash. Seems like ICOs, NFTs and other [even more] questionable “offerings” (SBF, questionable stable coins etc.) piggy back on that cycle, creating their own bubbles while the general hype is high. So while every cycle, there is a bubble, the overall “blockchain” / “smart contracts” bubble is still shakily inflating in a cyclical (but increasing) pattern.
I’m still expecting an overall bubble to burst, once real world utility (if any) starts to become clear - but as yet, it’s ongoing speculation & the overall bubble is still trying to find its limits.
FYI: this intended as a somewhat neutral comment, not a crypto-shilling comment, but I fully expect bot comments to piggyback on it, so feel free to delete it.
tulips were the 1st bubble as far as I know
Please use your original voice. This AI voice is irritating
Huh? I don’t think it is..
It’s not AI dude. Omg 🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
So ev next bubble. Going by what you said at start
AI bubble is gonna be bursted hard, since there have been billions invested in old models, that will never be recuperated, let alone turn to profit. They pay the cost of training old models by selling promise that the new one is going to be so much better, people will throw money at it.
The train thing seems like an "its complicated". It wasn't exactly a pure "hot air" bubble since the speculation was actually correct in the end (just a bit premature and overextended), and I wouldn't exactly call the history of the railroad purely private or purely government either. Its a lot like large aircraft manufacturing in the sense that its run sort of like a private industry but its way too strategically and economically important really be private.
I think it's unfair to be so dismissive about the early medieval heavy plow: Together with the horse collar/ oxen collar and the three-field system, it revolutionized European agriculture and let to the explosion of the population and to the founding and growth of a huge amount of cities.
This bubble burst with the black death, though. But I think this doesn't count in the context of the video.
Hey, will those Atari video game ca buried in the desert have a big resale value? I could be the first marketer who made millions in a obsolete tech bubble! @12:50
Yup! So true
unlike other tech bubbles generative ai yet to show any value justifying the cost. So called vision is stopped by the cold hard limit of thermodynamics. They cannot make them more efficient, they consumed all data already. So this time I am not sure we will be left with anything that has value.
Train development is not profitable but it costs less money than car infrastructure which is profitable (but not for the government)
Why does this sound like AI
"AI" is there to stay. It's been around for a long time. "Generative AI" like Chat GPT and the image generators is a bubble. It doesn't live up to the expectation, is too sloppy and the money and resources it costs to develop and run far outstrip it's usefulness. And what people would be willing to pay. It also has so much bad effects all over the Web that at some point regulators will have to step in. I read recently of a Web engineer discovering that 70% of their traffic is by crawlers, effectively DDoSing their small website. This will force them to pay more for bandwidth. If bigger corporations face the same issue, you can expect pressure on regulators to do something about it. If crawling is severely restricted, then today's imperfect models have no chance to improve and the like of Open AI will never make a profit.
20:07 potato bubble
Ima start farming
Yes, the Bitcoin value loss is such a sad story. If someone is stuck with one bought for 20k i'll help and buy it off him for 20k + I'll throw in some extra 1k. I'm generous today.
Tell me you don't know anything about why railways declined without telling me how you know nothing about why railways declined
How about a pic of Trump and Epstein...there are hundreds !
How about the content sponsoring bubble
I thought tulips were the first boom and crash 😅
Trains arTrains aren't a bubble - they're a public utility.
great
Still waiting for the world's first underpants bubble.
Depends
Next one will be something like transhumanism tech
I see. If there is no innovation, get your money out of the market situation.
I wonder - when you're talking about the green energy one, let's say it is a bubble
What donwe do next? If we pull out that government funding, it absolutely will burst.
Perhaps there needs to be some kind of regulation on how these corporate supports are granted in the first place, and if so, how could we do that in a way that makes R&D feasible (researching better solar tech) without building a product to be sold while still in development?
Muy opinion rounds about that you misunderstand the crashes (that every company has for many reasons) with market bubbles. Is my first time looking a video from you and couldn’t catch your idea.
Nice effort by the way, but bad script. Maybe you can use AI to help you witting your stories.
I bet next bubble will be quantum computer bubble
Is being a youtuber a bubble or a job... Some day this platform will end
What an interesting thumbnail. Who sitting with Bill Clinton?
Sourdough provider? Seriously?
Chocolate eclair?
Should call the video a history of tech bubbles in the US.
You really go hard into capitalist realism, even if for instance the train development in europe was completely different and not driven by profit at all (after the state took over). Still there is an extensive network here without this kind of bubble
Why didn't you comment on current state of Bitcoin?
Battery tech....
When will the crypto bubble burst…
Electric aircraft sounds like a very "green" idea, but when you're flying, vehicle mass is everything and batteries will never reach the specific energy of liquefied dinosaurs. Nor should they. Ever.
Then aviation will simply perish when we run out of commercially viable oil. Oil is a finite resource no matter what other considerations there may be.
@MusouInken Synthetic liquid fuels do be a thing. Like desalinated water. The only reason we don't use them now is cost. When the oil is gone we will be forced to, and economies of scale will pay off, but it will still never be as cheap as just digging crude out of the ground and refining it.
I learnt a long time ago that flying is a rich man's game.
How many companies do produce graphics cards for computers? Not that much. So where is the bubble?
Just one, TSMC. Betcha thought that would be nvidia, but nope they don't manufacture their own chips or products and neither does amd.
Dont tell people about mckinsey reports. It lowers your credibility
He is just talking shit and cherry picking, bitcoin is up over 1,180% in the last 5 years.
Ah yes the great failures judging purely by the thumbnail... Steam enegies, the internet, AI the the future...Like serouly what is with this clickbait trend making thumbnails that are pure rage bait as well as clickbait? Like do you want a good reptutain and have a community? Which you made great videos before this but like when someobe goes this stupid greedy where it doesn't make any sense I'm out... Like once a channel does this it's sets them on a path to failure in some wway or anthor like I still don't know how people torat this behavor? Like I guess people love to be taken advantage of...
Same here. The "how money works"-channel too has this negative/borderline conspiratorial undertone.
Even if it "works" like that (attention), why that constant negative/"everything is rigged/hopeless" framing??
If it is what it is, there too is an economic optimistic opportune, productive growth outlook.
Where the eff is that??
Had hopes with the creator after him being on a podcast, but now not so much anymore.
how is bitcoin a bubble? it's been growing for 15 years.
There have been multiple giant crashes. That’s like asking how was 2008 a bubble of house prices are high now.
@@Chocolate_teapot420 i see, i just don't think it is, i just think it will continue to have these up and downs, but generally it's just growing, because of how fiat currency is being devalued at the whim of the central banks. it's not a replacement for fiat currency, i think monero or epic cash will do that due to their anonymity, just like cash, and due to the speed of transactions and scalability, especially epic cash.
Algorithm comment
Mf wasted my time. Thought he was going to tell us what's coming
short answer: many of the AI-related upstart companies currently soliciting investors are going to disappear or merge with others in the next few years, so beware of sinking money into them.
I hate this voice
I want to like this channel but the fake(?) english accent just makes me want to barf. Why is this a thing on youtube? Didn't the english empire die like 100 years ago?
Your biases are gross and it ruins the value of your content as any sort of good history
Bitcoin isn’t a bubble… it’s digital gold 😂
Gold has a multi millennia track record. Bitcoin has the internet. Without that backbone, Bitcoin evaporates 😃
@@gmw3083 i was being sarcastic... being able to hold gold (and not debase it) is why it is valuable, especially when trust in traditional money has fallen apart...
bitcoin makes zero sense... because when trust is at it all time low, everything falls apart (including internet and electricity), etc.
@@gmw3083BTC is also obsolete compared to newer crypto due to processing bottleneck. This means BTC is nothing but an expensive souvenir from early crypto period or like a living fossil. We live in strange times.
@@gmw3083to be fair without the internet most of the modern world evaporates
Definitely not a bubble 😂
People are upset they didnt get in early, so they make media like this.
Look at how fast AI is progressing.
Warfare will be utilizing AI powered UAVs.
Fast good and retail use advanced AI, and look at their profits after implementing it.
Loved it! I hit the like button. Can anyone help me with my situation? I keep USDT TRX20 in my OKX wallet and have saved the recovery phrase [ clean party soccer advance audit clean evil finish tonight involve whip action ] How do I move it to BitGet or OKX?