And nobody's prepared for deflation. Business schools have spent many decades saying basically "Yeah, that word, deflation... we can manage it, so deflation shouldn't ever really be a problem again like the 1930s." Wrong.
@@markhirstwood4190 that would require constraint from government, central banks and tightening (less printing) of lending/fiscal policy (rate of change of velocity slowing - deceleration). Your brave to position completely against the zeitgeist. Only concern for asset inflation is boomers cashing out their pensions, hence that won't happen because those flows will be constrained by gov. intervention.
Great as always. One note: use a lavalier mic. Also, remember, this is deflation, and 0% won't get people to borrow or spend. 0% nominal is more like 5% or so effective rates.
Roger, You forgotten about the Emerging markets in your last section, I was waiting for it and you said thank you and subscribe. Its not fair. But I still love your delivery. Hope it next time.
Its funny, I was exactly thinking about just that today myself. And especially that now it's a blue sweep and everybody is getting beared up on bonds, i think we are getting late in the game in the near term. B/Es 10y in us are 2.07% when fed targets that as an average. Means the easy money on that trade is probably done, there is probably some icing and a cherry on top but that usually is a lot tougher money to be made. I liked the reflation narrative a lot a few months back when many were questioning it, but now that everyone sees it I'm getting a bit more concerned short term.
Great analysis. China led global growth by bringing in future demand. Inflation is hard to define with the ridiculous CPI that the US uses. I see a muted recovery or reflation as lockdown, supply limitations and higher costs will mute fiscal spending. Credit markets are not the stock market and are much more sensitive to the real economy. I am a bit more bearish on the pickup of money velocity until 2022.
commodities bet mostly on china growth and inballances in supply of industrial metals in some EM --> Commodities are always both supply and demand ... even with lower demand supply can be more worse and prices rise (attraction for specualtion)
Roger, what is there to reflate? Bonds, housing, stocks? These are already at astronomical levels. OK. Commercial real estate is being crushed by a change in consumer behavior and the technological revolution in work. OK. Commodities.
That's the point. Reflation should mean growth in actual production, hiring, wages, etc in industrials, manufacturing etc etc but all that is "reflating" (for lack of a better word) are asset prices, not the fundamentals behind the prices.
"...what is there to reflate?" Right - all that has inflated - now all that needs to be done is for wages to inflated proportional to the levels of those assets.
If this narrative is being pushed by active managers, what effect will passive investing play? As Mike Green mentions, passive is now significantly effecting the market action. If passive investors believe in the reflation narrative, maybe it will happen?
@@jamesdean7756 TBH if you don't understand the term the rest of the video isn't for you either, it's guidance on macro trading and has little bearing on the layman. You might want to visit George Gammon's channel if you are trying to get into the world of Austrian macroeconomics but need help with terminologies.
Inflation = to empower cityzens = education, new inventions, better health (body and mind), unity (feel safe). Dictatorship = to empower one person = no boundries (regulations), no accountability .
I hate to break to all you egg heads who "learned" from your economics professors that money is scarce and thus subject to the law of supply and demand - those professors developed their theory upon a monetary model that assumed a non-fiat currency - which means their starting premise was completely wrong!
@@westcoaststacker569 I'm using "money" in its common usage and understand that dollar denominated federal reserve notes and dollar denominated digital credits do not derive their value from a commodity.
@@rodciferri9626 Seems you stated economic porfessors based it on a non-fiat-currency (commodity based) and stated that money was scarce. How were they wrong. Been a long time since classes but it seems their predictions on a fiat-currency are coming true. I seem to remember Weimar Germany being a prime example.
@@westcoaststacker569 What I'm saying is you can't predict accurately what the belief of the people will be about what value their fiat currency has by using supply and demand models that assume a commodity based currency. When it is merely the faith of the people that gives value to a fiat currency, it is making too much of an assumption that the creation of a certain amount of it will create inflation.
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More excellent analysis from Roger. No one else is talking about this. 👍
There are others.
Thanks again .. content is pure gold.
Great analysis. Probably the most compelling argument so far casting doubt on inflation narrative.
Usually when literally everyone is in consensus on market direction, they turn out to be wrong.
Not true by definition.
And nobody's prepared for deflation. Business schools have spent many decades saying basically "Yeah, that word, deflation... we can manage it, so deflation shouldn't ever really be a problem again like the 1930s." Wrong.
@@markhirstwood4190 that would require constraint from government, central banks and tightening (less printing) of lending/fiscal policy (rate of change of velocity slowing - deceleration).
Your brave to position completely against the zeitgeist. Only concern for asset inflation is boomers cashing out their pensions, hence that won't happen because those flows will be constrained by gov. intervention.
Excellent evaluation - timing could not be better.
Great content you earned a subscriber
Well done - Thank You
No wonder you call this - “The Chatter “
Thank you for a valuable insight
Great as always. One note: use a lavalier mic. Also, remember, this is deflation, and 0% won't get people to borrow or spend. 0% nominal is more like 5% or so effective rates.
Great video, thank you!
Roger, You forgotten about the Emerging markets in your last section, I was waiting for it and you said thank you and subscribe. Its not fair. But I still love your delivery. Hope it next time.
Why is turkey booming??
Why is the sound so bad this time? : (
Interesting.
Its funny, I was exactly thinking about just that today myself. And especially that now it's a blue sweep and everybody is getting beared up on bonds, i think we are getting late in the game in the near term. B/Es 10y in us are 2.07% when fed targets that as an average. Means the easy money on that trade is probably done, there is probably some icing and a cherry on top but that usually is a lot tougher money to be made. I liked the reflation narrative a lot a few months back when many were questioning it, but now that everyone sees it I'm getting a bit more concerned short term.
Well, I said the same thing about bitcoin a few years ago...sometimes being an early adopter and getting out too soon is the same as being wrong.
Great Content. Thanks!
Great analysis. China led global growth by bringing in future demand. Inflation is hard to define with the ridiculous CPI that the US uses. I see a muted recovery or reflation as lockdown, supply limitations and higher costs will mute fiscal spending. Credit markets are not the stock market and are much more sensitive to the real economy. I am a bit more bearish on the pickup of money velocity until 2022.
commodities bet mostly on china growth and inballances in supply of industrial metals in some EM --> Commodities are always both supply and demand ... even with lower demand supply can be more worse and prices rise (attraction for specualtion)
Thanks for forwarding this Information to the non bloomberg terminal elite !!!
Thank you very much. Great insights !
Covered all bases.
Dollar needs a daily trendchange. Stick to the charts!
Was just thinking I miss seeing Roger
Very hard to beat investment in the solid Garden Huts though
Roger, what is there to reflate? Bonds, housing, stocks? These are already at astronomical levels. OK. Commercial real estate is being crushed by a change in consumer behavior and the technological revolution in work. OK. Commodities.
That's the point. Reflation should mean growth in actual production, hiring, wages, etc in industrials, manufacturing etc etc but all that is "reflating" (for lack of a better word) are asset prices, not the fundamentals behind the prices.
"...what is there to reflate?" Right - all that has inflated - now all that needs to be done is for wages to inflated proportional to the levels of those assets.
If this narrative is being pushed by active managers, what effect will passive investing play? As Mike Green mentions, passive is now significantly effecting the market action. If passive investors believe in the reflation narrative, maybe it will happen?
Is there a place to find transcripts of these talks?
Open YT transcript. Three dots button under video.
Did you fire your sound man? :-/ What a difference
Why don’t you define with reflation is never heard of it before
Have you heard of Google?
noun
expansion in the level of output of an economy by government stimulus, using either fiscal or monetary policy.
@@williamwilson6499 don’t be an idiot. It’s his video. Define the terminology if he wants subscribers otherwise we go elsewhere duhhhhh
@@jamesdean7756 TBH if you don't understand the term the rest of the video isn't for you either, it's guidance on macro trading and has little bearing on the layman. You might want to visit George Gammon's channel if you are trying to get into the world of Austrian macroeconomics but need help with terminologies.
I had to google what this meant also.
Inflation = to empower cityzens = education, new inventions, better health (body and mind), unity (feel safe). Dictatorship = to empower one person = no boundries (regulations), no accountability .
Silver beat the NASDAQ in 2020 and I bet it does it again in 2021.
I like stuff and producers of commodities for the green energy space. Uranium copper silver things like that I'm most excited about.
I hate to break to all you egg heads who "learned" from your economics professors that money is scarce and thus subject to the law of supply and demand - those professors developed their theory upon a monetary model that assumed a non-fiat currency - which means their starting premise was completely wrong!
Are you equating Currency with Money? "Money originates in the form of a commodity"
@@westcoaststacker569 I'm using "money" in its common usage and understand that dollar denominated federal reserve notes and dollar denominated digital credits do not derive their value from a commodity.
@@rodciferri9626 Seems you stated economic porfessors based it on a non-fiat-currency (commodity based) and stated that money was scarce. How were they wrong.
Been a long time since classes but it seems their predictions on a fiat-currency are coming true. I seem to remember Weimar Germany being a prime example.
@@westcoaststacker569 What I'm saying is you can't predict accurately what the belief of the people will be about what value their fiat currency has by using supply and demand models that assume a commodity based currency. When it is merely the faith of the people that gives value to a fiat currency, it is making too much of an assumption that the creation of a certain amount of it will create inflation.
Wow. First!
Very happy 😍💋 💝💖♥️❤️
Fantastic 😍💋 💝💖♥️❤️
Hi Guys 😍💋 💝💖
This guy in unintelligible. He makes no sense at all.
Spewing random statistics proves nothing.
Gotta walk before you can run...
He actually makes total sense as long as you know the basics and can follow along with that background information.