Hey everyone! Thank you so much for recommending Professor Steve Hanke come on the show. I enjoyed listening to him and plan to bring him back on again soon. Please let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and leave your guest suggestions. Thanks again for your support. 💙Julia
Yes, he should re-assess the inflation/deflation, the economy/recession risks, & the markets every quarter or so if he could, with your meaningful questions, Julia.
Oh he says “tomorrow”, so he must have seen the latest CPI print without seeing the latest PPI print before your interview, Julia. I wonder why PPI is negative while CPI is still in the positive territory. I have an idea, but…
@The Julia La Roche Show A subset of my initial list: John Paulson, Brian Hirschmann, Luke Gromen, the 13marketmoves’ Leonardo, Richard Heart or Jordan Belfort on the newest crypto developments, & Hanke again after the next FOMC day or two… Michael Every perhaps. & experts on the continuing banking crises (e.g. Chris Whalen again) & treasury issuance. The FED’s BS did remain stable for the past two weeks in a row!
The M2 money supply has increased by 50% since the pandemic started. It's down a relatively insignificant 3 or 4% since the Fed started QT. So there doesn't appear to be a 1 to 1 relationship between money supply and inflation at all. We had negligible inflation in the main street economy from 2010 to 2020 when the Fed was doing QE thoughout that 10 year period increasing M2 by 225%. The difference between the QE's from 2010 to 2020 and 2020 to 2023 is,.. in the latter M1 (a subset of M2) were checks printed by the Treasury on orders by the senile ole joe admin and sent directly to consumers with no obligation to repay,.. which caused the inflation on mainstreet starting about Feb 2021. That and this admin's waging a war on and shutting down the fossil fuel industry, the life blood of the economy, the minute senile ole joe took office. That was the minute inflation took off,... .... as opposed to the former which was the Fed buying treasuires and MBS'es from primary dealers/banks in exchange for reserves which were used by the banks to generate loans and economic activity,.. which have an asset and a debt tied to it that has to be paid back. As and when it is paid back,.. the money created by the fractional reserve system disappears. The problem is,.. the Fed went too far with the QE,.. but when they tried to raies rates in 2017 and 18,... Trump had them reverse course. The Fed does pay attenton to the money supply. The bottom line is,.. inflation is the result of bad even criminal fiscal abuse by politicians and its impact on money supply. The Fed can only react to it with the few demand side monetary policy tools it has. How you increase money supply is critical. The Fed can't drill for oil. The Fed can't tell the demcorats to stop stealing from tax payers and deficit spending like drunken sailors to buy demcorat votes causing not only unsustainable debt,.. bu t unsustainable inflaiton and economic havoc.
785, economists ( PHDs ?) At the FED. Apparently, none are monitarist, of the Milton Friedman persuasion ? The quantitative theory of money, has proven professor Hanke, exactly right in his predictions of CPI/ PPI inflation rates , for at least the last 3 years. The FED ,now , excessively doing QT into a economic recession, will only have brutal consequences for , we the people , on main Street.
I was just watching Milton Friedman’s “Free to Choose” (episodes 3 & 4). It is amazing how exactly he describes today half a century or so ago. In short, the Keynesians at FED are driving us into a Great Depression 2.0. The exact same things did happen before, & M2 is contracting even at a higher rate now!
Excellent interview. Best one of Steve that I've seen. Have you ever had Keith Weiner as a guest? He can do a very good but dark deep dive into history if you are interested
Hi, Ms. La Roche. Another great show. You're knocking it outta da park, and these interviews are well worth the wait. As a special aside, may I state my happiness that you're starting to drop the mic, so to speak, a bit lower so we can all see your face! Thanks for that, after all, it's YOUR show we're here "to see"! lol. Thanks again and good luck!
Interesting perspective breaking down the big picture - inflation is created locally by the individual central banks - applying the quantitative theory of money. I happen to agree with Steve that the "FED has been a complete disaster" ; the very "thing" they are "saving us from", they "created!" Unelected officials with no accountability for politicizing their mandate might just make the USD far weaker - to the point that someday, sanctions become irrelevant, which could mean more senseless war - I hope I am wrong. Thank you for this Julia.
It absolutley is not global it is local,.. but you and he are wrong about it being a monnetary (ie Fed) policy problem. The M2 money supply has increased by 50% since the pandemic started. It's down a relatively insignificant 3 or 4% since the Fed started QT. So there doesn't appear to be a 1 to 1 relationship between money supply and inflation at all. We had negligible inflation in the main street economy from 2010 to 2020 when the Fed was doing QE thoughout that 10 year period increasing M2 by 225%. The difference between the QE's from 2010 to 2020 and 2020 to 2023 is,.. in the latter M1 (a subset of M2) were checks printed by the Treasury on orders by the senile ole joe admin and sent directly to consumers with no obligation to repay,.. which caused the inflation on mainstreet starting about Feb 2021. That and this admin's waging a war on and shutting down the fossil fuel industry, the life blood of the economy, the minute senile ole joe took office. That was the minute inflation took off,... .... as opposed to the former which was the Fed buying treasuires and MBS'es from primary dealers/banks in exchange for reserves which were used by the banks to generate loans and economic activity,.. which have an asset and a debt tied to it that has to be paid back. As and when it is paid back,.. the money created by the fractional reserve system disappears. Inflation is absolutrly a bad/criminla fiscal policy abuse issue. The Fed can only react to it with the few demand side monetary tools it has.
Incredible how his study says money supply explains 90%+ of inflation rates across time and place if the analysis correctly accounts for lag effects between independent and dependent variable. Yet, many mainstream economists choose to completely ignore money supply data altogether. And CBs whipsaw us all around chasing their own tail.🙃 Keep up the great work, Julia!
Excellent interview! He and Michael Pento are my prime choices on economics and investments. I think the lockdowns resulted in far more incremental mortality (mainly suicides) than the virus itself. Blessings to ALL!
From St. Louis FED’s site: ‘…the FOMC primarily seeks to use the federal funds rate, instead of monetary aggregate targets, as its monetary policy tool.’ Powell keeps saying similar things from time-to-time.
How do the currency exchange rates play a role in different “local” inflations around the Globe (including US), since USD is the unit of account everywhere?
So, we don’t add these lags’ time-frames to each other whereas these lags start to take place simultaneously once there is a material increase in the money supply, right?
Here is the thing, though: Druckenmiller says there MIGHT NOT be a severe recession despite the material reduction in M2, b/c the STOCK of money has never been this much. How would Hanke assess that possibility? & how would the $2+ trillion in RRP play into all that, which Powells points to here & there?
People sold stocks, then re-bought them. & there is a lag with these things as he explains. Besides, inflation is falling doesn’t entail that prices are falling!
Great and perfect question. It's coming from the ongoing fiscal abuse the senile ole joe admin is carrying on to buy votes,.. the "Inflation Redcution Act", etc... in complete opposition to the Fed's efforts to fight inflation. There is absolutely no reason for government spending to be 50% higher than 2019 levels 2 years after the pandemic is over. The M2 money supply has increased by 50% since the pandemic started. It's down a relatively insignificant 3 or 4% since the Fed started QT. So there doesn't appear to be a 1 to 1 relationship between money supply and inflation at all as Hanke suggested. We had negligible inflation in the main street economy from 2010 to 2020 when the Fed was doing QE thoughout that 10 year period increasing M2 by 225%. The difference between the QE's from 2010 to 2020 and 2020 to 2023 is,.. in the latter M1 (a subset of M2) were checks printed by the Treasury on orders by the senile ole joe admin and sent directly to consumers with no obligation to repay,.. which caused the inflation on mainstreet starting about Feb 2021. That and this admin's waging a war on and shutting down the fossil fuel industry, the life blood of the economy, the minute senile ole joe took office. That was the minute inflation took off,... .... as opposed to the former which was the Fed buying treasuires and MBS'es from primary dealers/banks in exchange for reserves which were used by the banks to generate loans and economic activity,.. which have an asset and a debt tied to it that has to be paid back. As and when it is paid back,.. the money created by the fractional reserve system disappears. Inflation is absolutely due a bad/criminal fiscal policy abuse issue. The Fed can only react to it with the few demand side monetary tools it has.
Frankly, your stories are a distraction: +the increase in the number of tax collectors, +the increase in the number of jobs requiring a license to practice a trade or a work, + the increase in the price of oil, are at least three more elements determinants in inflation. By dint of evacuating "political videos", youtube leaves us alone, with stupefied speeches on the economy and makes us uneducated.
Hey everyone! Thank you so much for recommending Professor Steve Hanke come on the show. I enjoyed listening to him and plan to bring him back on again soon. Please let me know your thoughts in the comments below, and leave your guest suggestions. Thanks again for your support. 💙Julia
👏🏻🧿
Yes, he should re-assess the inflation/deflation, the economy/recession risks, & the markets every quarter or so if he could, with your meaningful questions, Julia.
Oh he says “tomorrow”, so he must have seen the latest CPI print without seeing the latest PPI print before your interview, Julia. I wonder why PPI is negative while CPI is still in the positive territory. I have an idea, but…
@The Julia La Roche Show A subset of my initial list: John Paulson, Brian Hirschmann, Luke Gromen, the 13marketmoves’ Leonardo, Richard Heart or Jordan Belfort on the newest crypto developments, & Hanke again after the next FOMC day or two… Michael Every perhaps. & experts on the continuing banking crises (e.g. Chris Whalen again) & treasury issuance. The FED’s BS did remain stable for the past two weeks in a row!
The M2 money supply has increased by 50% since the pandemic started. It's down a relatively insignificant 3 or 4% since the Fed started QT.
So there doesn't appear to be a 1 to 1 relationship between money supply and inflation at all.
We had negligible inflation in the main street economy from 2010 to 2020 when the Fed was doing QE thoughout that 10 year period increasing M2 by 225%.
The difference between the QE's from 2010 to 2020 and 2020 to 2023 is,.. in the latter M1 (a subset of M2) were checks printed by the Treasury on orders by the senile ole joe admin and sent directly to consumers with no obligation to repay,..
which caused the inflation on mainstreet starting about Feb 2021. That and this admin's waging a war on and shutting down the fossil fuel industry, the life blood of the economy, the minute senile ole joe took office. That was the minute inflation took off,...
.... as opposed to the former which was the Fed buying treasuires and MBS'es from primary dealers/banks in exchange for reserves which were used by the banks to generate loans and economic activity,.. which have an asset and a debt tied to it that has to be paid back. As and when it is paid back,.. the money created by the fractional reserve system disappears.
The problem is,.. the Fed went too far with the QE,.. but when they tried to raies rates in 2017 and 18,... Trump had them reverse course.
The Fed does pay attenton to the money supply.
The bottom line is,.. inflation is the result of bad even criminal fiscal abuse by politicians and its impact on money supply.
The Fed can only react to it with the few demand side monetary policy tools it has.
How you increase money supply is critical.
The Fed can't drill for oil. The Fed can't tell the demcorats to stop stealing from tax payers and deficit spending like drunken sailors to buy demcorat votes causing not only unsustainable debt,.. bu t unsustainable inflaiton and economic havoc.
Loooove Steve hanke!!! This is my first time here. Here because of Hanke! A true hero.
Steve is among the best 5 economists in the world …. Thanks for having him
& #1 on inflation, which he fixed all around the globe, locally! 😎
@@issenvan1050 And everyone should know that Issen Van was the one with the incredible recommendation. Thank you Issen Van!!
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow No, thank you, Julia, for your public service!
More importantly, he is an APPLIED economist & monetarist.
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow You can also make a comparative episode of Hanke’s & Snider’s views on money. That would be very appealing!
this gentleman talks in an easy manner which makes it logical and easy to understand , great interview..
785, economists ( PHDs ?) At the FED. Apparently, none are monitarist, of the Milton Friedman persuasion ? The quantitative theory of money, has proven professor Hanke, exactly right in his predictions of CPI/ PPI inflation rates , for at least the last 3 years. The FED ,now , excessively doing QT into a economic recession, will only have brutal consequences for , we the people , on main Street.
Thanks for the time stamps on the discussion topics. Very helpful !
Julia, you were wonderful.
Thank you, Howard. I always appreciate your kind words.
Thank you
Thanks Julia! Great guest and great questions. Enjoyed this.
Mr Hankey is right!
Always!
HankeY 🤣
@Leo A ?
Steve is the best economist today
I was just watching Milton Friedman’s “Free to Choose” (episodes 3 & 4). It is amazing how exactly he describes today half a century or so ago. In short, the Keynesians at FED are driving us into a Great Depression 2.0. The exact same things did happen before, & M2 is contracting even at a higher rate now!
Great guest and interview...thanks again Julia.
Excellent interview. Thanks.
Excellent interview. Best one of Steve that I've seen. Have you ever had Keith Weiner as a guest? He can do a very good but dark deep dive into history if you are interested
Thanks P S! Will ask Keith if he'll join the show. Always appreciate the guest recommendations.
Hi, Ms. La Roche. Another great show. You're knocking it outta da park, and these interviews are well worth the wait. As a special aside, may I state my happiness that you're starting to drop the mic, so to speak, a bit lower so we can all see your face! Thanks for that, after all, it's YOUR show we're here "to see"! lol. Thanks again and good luck!
Thank you!! I'm always learning, haha. The mic was way too high 🤣🤣🤣
Interesting perspective breaking down the big picture - inflation is created locally by the individual central banks - applying the quantitative theory of money. I happen to agree with Steve that the "FED has been a complete disaster" ; the very "thing" they are "saving us from", they "created!" Unelected officials with no accountability for politicizing their mandate might just make the USD far weaker - to the point that someday, sanctions become irrelevant, which could mean more senseless war - I hope I am wrong. Thank you for this Julia.
It absolutley is not global it is local,.. but you and he are wrong about it being a monnetary (ie Fed) policy problem.
The M2 money supply has increased by 50% since the pandemic started. It's down a relatively insignificant 3 or 4% since the Fed started QT.
So there doesn't appear to be a 1 to 1 relationship between money supply and inflation at all.
We had negligible inflation in the main street economy from 2010 to 2020 when the Fed was doing QE thoughout that 10 year period increasing M2 by 225%.
The difference between the QE's from 2010 to 2020 and 2020 to 2023 is,.. in the latter M1 (a subset of M2) were checks printed by the Treasury on orders by the senile ole joe admin and sent directly to consumers with no obligation to repay,..
which caused the inflation on mainstreet starting about Feb 2021. That and this admin's waging a war on and shutting down the fossil fuel industry, the life blood of the economy, the minute senile ole joe took office. That was the minute inflation took off,...
.... as opposed to the former which was the Fed buying treasuires and MBS'es from primary dealers/banks in exchange for reserves which were used by the banks to generate loans and economic activity,.. which have an asset and a debt tied to it that has to be paid back. As and when it is paid back,.. the money created by the fractional reserve system disappears.
Inflation is absolutrly a bad/criminla fiscal policy abuse issue.
The Fed can only react to it with the few demand side monetary tools it has.
I love this guy. So smart.
Incredible how his study says money supply explains 90%+ of inflation rates across time and place if the analysis correctly accounts for lag effects between independent and dependent variable. Yet, many mainstream economists choose to completely ignore money supply data altogether. And CBs whipsaw us all around chasing their own tail.🙃 Keep up the great work, Julia!
Yeah, St. Louis FED site says they do not follow the money supply, just like Powell who said they were going to un-learn monetarism!
Excellent interview! He and Michael Pento are my prime choices on economics and investments. I think the lockdowns resulted in far more incremental mortality (mainly suicides) than the virus itself. Blessings to ALL!
From St. Louis FED’s site: ‘…the FOMC primarily seeks to use the federal funds rate, instead of monetary aggregate targets, as its monetary policy tool.’ Powell keeps saying similar things from time-to-time.
When will the FED reverse course & stop QT? Is there anything between QT & QE, btw.?
How does Hanke trade gold: through GLD, GDX, or?..
How do the currency exchange rates play a role in different “local” inflations around the Globe (including US), since USD is the unit of account everywhere?
So, we don’t add these lags’ time-frames to each other whereas these lags start to take place simultaneously once there is a material increase in the money supply, right?
Does the sentiment swing back EACH & EVERY TIME once it reaches an extreme?..
How about silver during a recession?
Fed is doing QT at the front end and QE at back end.
Yeah, the FED follows the markets (esp. the 2-yr.), does not lead them!
Here is the thing, though: Druckenmiller says there MIGHT NOT be a severe recession despite the material reduction in M2, b/c the STOCK of money has never been this much. How would Hanke assess that possibility? & how would the $2+ trillion in RRP play into all that, which Powells points to here & there?
How much would BTC’s halving be impacted by the upcoming recession, price-action-wise?
What do modern Central Bankers and shoplifters have in common?
Neither think that money matters!!
BOOM BOOM
If the money supply is shrinking, where is the liquidity that is driving stocks up coming from?
Would love to hear that question answered
People sold stocks, then re-bought them. & there is a lag with these things as he explains. Besides, inflation is falling doesn’t entail that prices are falling!
Great and perfect question.
It's coming from the ongoing fiscal abuse the senile ole joe admin is carrying on to buy votes,.. the "Inflation Redcution Act", etc... in complete opposition to the Fed's efforts to fight inflation.
There is absolutely no reason for government spending to be 50% higher than 2019 levels 2 years after the pandemic is over.
The M2 money supply has increased by 50% since the pandemic started. It's down a relatively insignificant 3 or 4% since the Fed started QT.
So there doesn't appear to be a 1 to 1 relationship between money supply and inflation at all as Hanke suggested.
We had negligible inflation in the main street economy from 2010 to 2020 when the Fed was doing QE thoughout that 10 year period increasing M2 by 225%.
The difference between the QE's from 2010 to 2020 and 2020 to 2023 is,.. in the latter M1 (a subset of M2) were checks printed by the Treasury on orders by the senile ole joe admin and sent directly to consumers with no obligation to repay,..
which caused the inflation on mainstreet starting about Feb 2021. That and this admin's waging a war on and shutting down the fossil fuel industry, the life blood of the economy, the minute senile ole joe took office. That was the minute inflation took off,...
.... as opposed to the former which was the Fed buying treasuires and MBS'es from primary dealers/banks in exchange for reserves which were used by the banks to generate loans and economic activity,.. which have an asset and a debt tied to it that has to be paid back. As and when it is paid back,.. the money created by the fractional reserve system disappears.
Inflation is absolutely due a bad/criminal fiscal policy abuse issue.
The Fed can only react to it with the few demand side monetary tools it has.
Soft patch but no soft landing! 🤣
HOWDY-HO!
With the way fed wants to jawbone market they will give the economy a big fat depression
Meanwhile in Sweden 😎
Hi sweetie
First!
I would like everyone to know YOU were the one who made me reach out to Dr. Hanke. Thank you for an incredible guest suggestion 🥳🎉
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow Great job, Julia, thank you! 👏🏻 We want more! 😎
@@TheJuliaLaRocheShow More Hanke in due course, & JOHN PAULSON now if possible. 😎🌷
Kissing up to someone’s ass is really not necessary!
Then don’t do it.
Frankly, your stories are a distraction:
+the increase in the number of tax collectors,
+the increase in the number of jobs requiring a license to practice a trade or a work,
+ the increase in the price of oil,
are at least three more elements determinants in inflation.
By dint of evacuating "political videos", youtube leaves us alone, with stupefied speeches on the economy and makes us uneducated.