Tony Alexander made a housing market prediction, travelled to every alternative universe in every dimension, and still couldnt get a single prediction correct
Dude, its called a professional opinion. Read a lot, listen to multiple different views and then make your own informed views. Have you never been wrong about something in your life?
Why would you refer to this man as independent? He writes for NZ home loans. He also called a 10% rise in property prices this year and is way out. Highly dangerous for FHBs, their financial future and the country at large. Disappointing as a sharesies customer, I feel like you should be promoting productive investments but what do I know
Don’t worry about jumping into housing to early, you are better off making sure the market has hit rock bottom and it’s very likely to stay flattish for a few years.Even if you wait to prices start going up they won’t go up that fast that you can’t find a great deal. Be careful who you listen to . Many people with media attachments also have invested interest. Like work under the oneroof umbrella . Remember many investors took there portfolios down to 80% LVRs over the pandemic period plus prices have dropped 20% . Investors won’t be jumping in fast anytime soon, not even if LVRs were dropped back to 80% because they are already there or worse. Plus nz has a DTI setting too now which has a extremely high setting compared to other countries and likely to only go down.
Investment in housing is the number one thing killing our entire economic system, with house's and rent being so over priced our real disposable income is at record low meaning no one has any money to buy things that people with job's make, a lot of money just goes overseas or to the very wealthy, instead investment needs to go into manufacturing, there needs to be a crash and sadly a lot of hard working top middle class are going to get hurt, the bubble needs to burst, it's stupid to have the rich making bank off everyones basic right of having somewhere to rest there head, its strangling the entire economy
Nz house prices didn’t bounce back up in 2008 or 2009 when interest rates started dropping and the OCR was dropped a whopping 6.25% back then to 2.5% . The RBNZ now only has 3% room to drop to the same level. And remember back in 2008 house prices outside Auckland were basically stagnant to 2015 . Ireland had a crash of house prices and with dropping of interest rates still went down to 2012 and still haven’t returned to 2007 highs . If you look at history central banks drop not because they have been high for long enough, generally because they have gone to far and job and businesses are in trouble
Hey everyone. Young kiwi here without rich parents who own property portfolios. Wondering if we could all stop with using property as monetary property to store our value. I know it’s hard with all debt based fiat currencies being designed to debase and therefore benefit boomer asset holders, but it’s really not going to lead to a great situation for NZ. Think growing inequality, homelessness and disease of despair. Eventually it could even lead to us young people needing a good old revolution!! Haha! Well, one thing people could recognise is that Covid showed us that monetary debasement and fiscal stimulus steals value via inflation from savers and wage earners, and pumps up assets. Given boomers have plenty of assets already that’s good for them, but actually really bad for us youngins. Now it’s just so obvious we are in a controlled property ponzi. How about we talk about how money is broken? That might help us youth in the long run! Cheers
They forget the massive amounts of house glut currently on the market from the prices dropping. In my city theres over 450 houses listed with all the new builds piled on top. I searched through every single listing as part of my assignment and theres on average 30 people watch listing. Theres way way too many houses listed if the demand can exceed that over supply then maybe we see another rise in house prices. but with the latest sentiments of people loathing nz right now and seeing so many exit to aussie or else where, plus way less immigration i wouldn’t be surprised if things fell on its head even further.
Nzs OCR went into the pandemic at 1% , because in 2019 the nz housing market wasn’t doing well. And that was when house prices were a lot lower than today . But LVRs for investors were 60% and the RBNZ dropped investor LVRs to 80% march 2020. That’s the main reason NZs housing market took off. Investors could overnight double their portfolio
A lot of voices here saying don't buy because the RE market is not rising. What about the other reasons for buying a home. I NEVER regretted buying my first home and moving from the LANDLORD
Tony Alexander made a housing market prediction, travelled to every alternative universe in every dimension, and still couldnt get a single prediction correct
Dude, its called a professional opinion. Read a lot, listen to multiple different views and then make your own informed views. Have you never been wrong about something in your life?
@@jizzlipps Agreed and professionals can't predict government manipulation within market forces...
Nobody can predict the markets accurately. Hindsight is the only accurate way 😂
He always try to create FOMO. If you watch his videos in last 2 years, you will find his motive easily.
Tony Alexander once predicted he can do a wheelie on a unicycle
Why would you refer to this man as independent? He writes for NZ home loans. He also called a 10% rise in property prices this year and is way out. Highly dangerous for FHBs, their financial future and the country at large. Disappointing as a sharesies customer, I feel like you should be promoting productive investments but what do I know
hard agree, this man is about as independent as a tobacco company on health policy
I think he has demonstrated less of an agenda than most economists quoted in the media.
Don’t worry about jumping into housing to early, you are better off making sure the market has hit rock bottom and it’s very likely to stay flattish for a few years.Even if you wait to prices start going up they won’t go up that fast that you can’t find a great deal. Be careful who you listen to . Many people with media attachments also have invested interest. Like work under the oneroof umbrella . Remember many investors took there portfolios down to 80% LVRs over the pandemic period plus prices have dropped 20% . Investors won’t be jumping in fast anytime soon, not even if LVRs were dropped back to 80% because they are already there or worse. Plus nz has a DTI setting too now which has a extremely high setting compared to other countries and likely to only go down.
Investment in housing is the number one thing killing our entire economic system, with house's and rent being so over priced our real disposable income is at record low meaning no one has any money to buy things that people with job's make, a lot of money just goes overseas or to the very wealthy, instead investment needs to go into manufacturing, there needs to be a crash and sadly a lot of hard working top middle class are going to get hurt, the bubble needs to burst, it's stupid to have the rich making bank off everyones basic right of having somewhere to rest there head, its strangling the entire economy
Nz house prices didn’t bounce back up in 2008 or 2009 when interest rates started dropping and the OCR was dropped a whopping 6.25% back then to 2.5% . The RBNZ now only has 3% room to drop to the same level. And remember back in 2008 house prices outside Auckland were basically stagnant to 2015 . Ireland had a crash of house prices and with dropping of interest rates still went down to 2012 and still haven’t returned to 2007 highs . If you look at history central banks drop not because they have been high for long enough, generally because they have gone to far and job and businesses are in trouble
Hey everyone. Young kiwi here without rich parents who own property portfolios. Wondering if we could all stop with using property as monetary property to store our value. I know it’s hard with all debt based fiat currencies being designed to debase and therefore benefit boomer asset holders, but it’s really not going to lead to a great situation for NZ. Think growing inequality, homelessness and disease of despair. Eventually it could even lead to us young people needing a good old revolution!! Haha!
Well, one thing people could recognise is that Covid showed us that monetary debasement and fiscal stimulus steals value via inflation from savers and wage earners, and pumps up assets. Given boomers have plenty of assets already that’s good for them, but actually really bad for us youngins.
Now it’s just so obvious we are in a controlled property ponzi. How about we talk about how money is broken? That might help us youth in the long run!
Cheers
100% - you’re on to it, youngin
This video is not going to age well
They forget the massive amounts of house glut currently on the market from the prices dropping. In my city theres over 450 houses listed with all the new builds piled on top. I searched through every single listing as part of my assignment and theres on average 30 people watch listing. Theres way way too many houses listed if the demand can exceed that over supply then maybe we see another rise in house prices. but with the latest sentiments of people loathing nz right now and seeing so many exit to aussie or else where, plus way less immigration i wouldn’t be surprised if things fell on its head even further.
Housing markets gonna take dive in the next 3 months lol
Quality info that, great to see some relevant & topical NZ content.
Nzs OCR went into the pandemic at 1% , because in 2019 the nz housing market wasn’t doing well. And that was when house prices were a lot lower than today . But LVRs for investors were 60% and the RBNZ dropped investor LVRs to 80% march 2020. That’s the main reason NZs housing market took off. Investors could overnight double their portfolio
Thanks Tony For The Information 🎉 ... !!!
Tony would be good working for Harvey Norman lol
Too scruffy, maybe sweep the yard?
The tricky part of this stage for NZ's economic growth is GeoPolitics. So I guess Tony is right it would be hard to predict the next couple of years.
Great interview.
A lot of voices here saying don't buy because the RE market is not rising. What about the other reasons for buying a home. I NEVER regretted buying my first home and moving from the LANDLORD
Tony is the best economist IMO. He gives good explanations about why he thinks what he does.
Is townhouse good investment as lots have been built now everywhere in nz. What kind of townhouse
Will be less people coming to NZ for study if universities keep doing idiotic things like Auckland Uni doing a forced 1yr course on TOW.
No, I think it will be like a concrete football
nz has a capital gains tax its called rates