Great video dude. It's not easy explaining something so complicated, but you made it look easy! There was a few times I was lost there xD However, hopefully everyone eventually sees this and realises that these are the true odds and stop spreading the all the other misguided and assumed odds.
Thank you so much!!!! Now my Dexnav shiny only quest is actually doable!! Already got a shiny Mudkip and Zigzagoon! What ever Pokémon the Dexnav chooses in a new route, is what i shiny search for (duplication clause in effect) wish me luck!! I’m limiting myself to 2 shinys per badge. 😁
So chain fish 20 times in a row to get the odds to 1/100, and then hope for the best after that, that’s not that bad! Hopefully I’ll catch a shiny Feebas!
Really great explanation. Thank you for this! Now let's get the community to accept this as true, rather than blindly follow busted statistics/probability.
I am glad to see someone taking the right side on this. After the cases of people refusing Nbayoh's research, I am pleasantly surprised to see a video breaking it down as fact.
So basically... my 1100-ish DexNav encounters before I finally got a shiny Porygon weren't quite as unlucky as they seemed, and the Shiny Charm DOES have a significant impact on DexNav hunting. Good. I've been waiting for someone knowledgeable to dig this info out once and for all.
About that random 4% chance for the Dexnav, I just thought how it could have to do with the chance of getting a boosted level outside of every 5th encounter, which seems to also be 4%. Maybe the random shiny chance increase actually happens when the boosted level happens
Nah you want to keep the chain going as long as you can. Breaking the chain means taking steps to reset the Dexnav each encounter. The chain automatically resets back to 1 after reaching 100.
Blitz-o-Byte Chains do matter. At a Chain of 50 you get 5 extra shiny rerolls and chain of 100 you get 10 extra shiny rerolls. If your talking about the online calculator made by mrnbayoh? Try entering 49 or 99 in the chain section. Will show the odds for the next encounter the chain being the 50th or 100th. When putting in the number provided.
@@AbsolBlogsPokemon thanks! Currently I was looking for a shiny ralts, i did chains of 200 and nothing. Then i did a chain of 5 and it appeard but used teleport :( I'm still on it, i want it to do a shiny team!
I just thought of this today, is it worth soft resetting for your 100th Time seeing a Pokemon because you have 10 extra rolls? And the 4% could activate for 4 extra rolls, with charm adding 2 rolls, seems pretty good.
Camerupt12Playz ( sorry if this is late but) That's not how it works Sr is like encountering a specific Pokemon like let's say you hunt for treecko in oras, You are using the odds you have sr'ing doesn't change the odds for the shiny ( yes even if you get the shiny charm 1/1096 instead of 1/4096 if you're not chaning then the odds would stay the same.)
Hopefully you (or anyone really) will respond to this and help me out… So this whole Dex Nav method is really confusing because there’s around 2 or 3 theories floating around… and here’s exactly what I think based on experience, but please correct me if I’m wrong. So I think that at some point in 2014/2015 there was an update that made Dex Nav shiny hunting behave exactly as described in this video, but before that update it behaved how most people described it such as chaining having to do with shiny odds. This is why I believe this… When I got the game the day it came out I beat it quickly and started shiny hunting using the Dex Nav method and I got 3 shiny Pokémon all within 300 “chains” and 2 of them being around 100. (100-120) It’s to be noted that I never broke my chain therefore my search level was around 100-120 as well. Now on the calculator it says that’s a 1/1,000 chance (without the shiny charm which I did not have) but I think that only applies to ORAS now because like I said I got 3 shinies relatively quickly…. Not only that, but on shiny hunting tutorial videos I’ve read A LOT AND I MEAN A LOT of people saying they also have got shiny Pokémon around 100 counters OR LESS. So the fact that SO MANY PEOPLE are getting shiny Pokémon THAT EARLY ON just doesn’t line up with the odds of having a search level of 100 being around a 1/1,000 chance of being shiny (even considering that 50th and 100th chain gives multiple rolls) Now fast forward til about a week ago… I’m visiting family for the holidays since I’m now grown up and found my old 3DS and Alpha Sapphire… (my brother had played it so my save file is fine sadly, but he made this new game about a year ago - so the reason I say this is that there has been plenty of time for the game to have been updated since I got my shiny Pokémon easily using the Dex Nav like a week after the game came out) ANYWAYS back to my original point… I did the same exact thing I did 9 years ago using the old “chaining” method and got up to the upper 700s (750-780) with a search level of around 730-740 or so (which means I’ve gotten about 20-50 filler encounters to continue this “chain”) and eventually I ran out of super repels which I had 90-100 of them. This happened yesterday btw, so now today I looked into it to see what I was doing wrong which led me to this video… and now using the logic in this video, the numbers seem more accurate. I went to another chain of 100 just for those added rolls and still no luck… so I’m now currently at 830 Lotad encounters with around 30-60 random encounters just to fill in the gaps to continue the chain. Like I said before, these numbers seem about right since the first few hundred encounters will be like 1/2,000 - 1/800 chance or so, but then from like 500 - 800 (so those 300 encounters) are more like a 1/600 - 1/400 chance which at this point kinda seems like I SHOULD be on pace to get a shiny. Now I understand that technically I could encounter 100,000 Pokémon each with a 1/400 chance and still not be guaranteed a shiny (essentially me saying I understand probability) but it seems that at this point not only does the statistics in this video seem accurate to my Lotad hunt, but I also feel like I’m starting to also get pretty bad luck/RNG. One last thing worth mentioning is that like I said earlier how MANY MANY people said they have encountered shiny Pokémon in ~100 encounters, what I forgot to mention is that most if not pretty much all of those comments were 9 years ago. Every once in awhile I would see someone say they got it in around 500-1,000 encounters and it just so happens to be that most of those comments are dated around 7- years ago which gives my claim really good evidence that essentially at one point the chaining method was actually correct, but then an update game out and heavily nerfed people being able to get almost any shiny Pokémon in an hour or two very easily. Not to mention the shiny hunting method in Legends Arceus got nerfed too, though only slightly and they essentially made it inconsistent to be able to hunt a specific Pokémon, which is straight up concrete proof that shiny hunting methods have been nerfed already (though this example would be after they did it in ORAS assuming my assumption is correct) So in conclusion I essentially explained my personal experience along with others with a wide pool of supporting detail that backs up my theory. In short back in 2014 I (and many others) could find shiny Pokémon using the Dex Nav easily within ~100 encounters MULTIPLE TIMES and now I’ve literally at a chain of 800+ without finding a single shiny Pokémon along with others saying that they’re also on really high encounters when they have found their shiny, but only those comments are dated recently whereas the vast majority if not all people who also have said they get a shiny in ~100 encounters are all pretty much 9 years ago, thus giving my theory some pretty good evidence. (I can link the videos so anyone can read all the comments if anyone doesn’t believe me, just didn’t because I’m not sure if it would be marked as spam)
Hello I read your comment. Interesting theory , but I like to point out the chain resets back to 1 after 100. No buff in between 50 and 100. Your own data with most around 300 encounters/ search level is very normal with some in the 100’s. To my knowledge the Dexnav computation loop never had a change through game version update. Details on how Dexnav is calculated is at (“MrNbaYoh’s Git hub”). Chaining (no shiny charm) up to 300 encounters without breaking chain and non targeted Pokémon. starting at search level 0. Total cumulative shiny chance = ~28.67% odds of 96% ~1/803 , 4% ~1/191 (Average) ~1/713 50% mark search level 520, odds 96% ~1/692, 4% ~1/160 (average) ~1/612 Search level 740 total cumulative shiny chance = ~67.15% , odds 96% 1/608 , 4% ~1/138 , (Average) ~1/536 Reaching from search level 0 - 100 total cumulative shiny chance ~7.006% If want to know how to calculate the odds your self. I left some comments to others in this video. My conclusion is no changes where made.
@@GoldChopper So if you say the average is 1/713 - 1/536 explain how literally EVERYONE was getting them in 1-200 encounters? That's still less than half of the search level 740 odds. This still doesn't line up and it's not even close. You can find playlists of TONS of people getting them in 1-200 "chains" at a low search level, though they could have the shiny charm, but there's no way everyone did and everyone was getting them "statistically speaking" WAY too quickly. Also why did you stop at search level 740 when it goes to 999? I ended up going to 1,500-1,600 encounters through the dex nev and then switched to an emulator and got to a chain of 99 then save stated at 99 to get those 10 extra rolls only to encounters hundreds (wasn't counting, but was a 999% emulation speed and was resetting save states for HOURS) and never got a shiny Lotad that way. What I did notice is that there was around 20 or so different combinations of Lotads. I noticed that there was mainly 3 different patches that they would only spawn in from the specific tile I save stated at and then I noticed that the potentials, abilities, movesets, etc. all lined up within those patches of grass, but each patch of grass had like 5 combinations or so of Lotads. If I'm understood correctly the shiny roll happens when you encounter the Pokemon, so there should have been a chance for those Lotads (with 10 extra rolls making it like 1/400 or so at search level 99 as well) to be shiny. I just ended up doing the horde method starting to think that the shiny factor is predetermined (even though I think that is incorrect, but I started to believe that at the time) to raise my search level to 999, but at 404 search level through using the horde method I FINALLY FOUND a shiny Lotad. All together I would say it was probably around 3,000 encounters and I find it laughable that more than 2,000 of those were with highly boosted odds through the Dex Nav and I ended up getting a full odds one through the horde method. (Horde method is considered full odds because every encounter is full odds, despite seeing 5 of them at once)
@@MindofInstincts average is referring to the 4% or 1/25 chance each Dexnav encounter to have +4 extra shiny rerolls. Secondly very confusing when u say “1-200 chains” when it resets back to 1 after 100. I stopped at 740 to reflect your specific scenario. Using a save state in a emulator will make the starting PRNG values the Seed 32 bit number, RNG State and Tiny MT to be same each time you reset when doing the “search level 99” Meaning you will hit same PIDs and PSV (Pokémon Shiny Value) if no shiny frames in range and none will be found. In a way it’s partially predetermined (Note) the moment the hidden Pokémon appears in the overworld. It’s already determined to be shiny or not. The game is Pseudo Random meaning a pattern does exist. in the RNG. *All I can say is they got lucky with either the forced shiny chance, random +4 extra shiny rerolls or a standard PID roll 1/4096 or ~1/1365.666721 with Dexnav fails.* Example how it’s calculated with search level 999 (No shiny charm) 1. Search level 999 2. Convert search level to points (1-100 = 6) (101-200 = 2) (201-999 = 1) Total: 600 + 200 + 799 = 1599 3. Points / 100 (15.99) 4. Take the Ceil of the points. (Math.Ceil function) example math.ceil(2.1) = 3 15.99 -> 16 5. take the results / 10,000 16/10,000 0.0016 + 1/4096 = 0.0018441406 7. Convert to odds 1/0.0018441406 -> 1/542.2580035 (This is the shiny odds 96% of the time) If want the weighted average you repeat the process Inverse the probability 1-(x) and ^5 is number of shiny rerolls. (Initial + extra) 16/10,000 -> 0.0016 -> 1-(0.0016) -> 0.9984 -> 0.9984^5 -> 0.9920255591 -> 1-(0.9920255591) -> 0.0079744409 -> 1/0.0079744409 -> 1/125.4006409 -> 1/125.4006409 + 1/4096 = 0.0082185815 -> 1/0.0082185815 -> 1/121.6754984. (Random 4% shiny odds) Lastly (0.96) x 1/542.2580035 + (0.04) x 1/121.6754984 = 0.0020991182 -> 1/476.3905148 (Weighted Average odds)
@@GoldChopper If you have discord you can drop it and we can chat there or even jump in a call if you're down. Also I forgot to mention that I save stated BEFORE I clicked "search" on the Dex Nav meaning (I think) that the Pokemon hasn't spawned in the wild yet, therefore I'm pretty sure it's PIDs weren't determined yet (everytime I load the save state I hit "search" to force spawn the Lotad, I wasn't just hitting the same Lotad over and over again in the wild bc I knew that probably wouldn't work.)
@@MindofInstincts I do have discord. Onbthe other hand I don’t know what you mean by dropping it ? As for the save state. Yeah it’s not determined yet on what you land, But you have the same 180 frame or so to land on if waited same range of time.
Thanks for the video! Could you find a way to explain the SOS shiny chance, cause I don't believe that it's a chain and that the odds are 1/4096 until a chain of 70, because sooo many people are getting shinies under a chain of 70.
Yeah I haven't done much research on that yet, but I'd personally take anything you hear without proper datamining to back it up with a big grain of salt. I'm not a 3DS hacker/dataminer myself, but I will do my best to do some research and see what other people have found, and I might make a video if I find anything that contradicts what most people are believing right now.
Hi, thanks for answering. I just heard of it from aDrive's newest video, where a dataminer claimed to have found out the odds. Here's the link: www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/5hmd9h/spoiler_some_more_indepth_mechanics_on_sos_battle/
also is this a hundred percent proven? have you abused this system before and fully believe it? and what happens when you reach search level of 999. you wont be able to hit that 100 10/4096 chance again. and still to this day everyone is saying something different. and along with this it doesnt make any sense with the calculator included in the description. that is showing it goes up by each search level meaning at search level 999 my odds would always be 1/173.
Dexnav has higher potential than hordes, and guaranteed specific encounter unlike hordes with odds x Distribution for exact odds. At search level 301+ (without shiny charm) and (with shiny charm) is when odds are better than horde odds.
@@GoldChopper okay thanks that also answers my question about if search level matters for hordes I have 1,712 encounters at this point if the odds are now better I might switch to hordes
@@stingraykitten1796 I assume you’ve meant dexnav at the end? Hordes will increase search level +5 at a time no need to KO. Or how many of target show up in horde examples 35% hordes. Horde odds are not effected by search level. Only the fastest way to increase it for dexnav. Horde odds will always be 1-(4095/4096)^5 = ~1/820 or ~1/274 with charm.
Wait. I thought "chaining" with the dexnav was just a myth and that your odds were pretty much a flat rate, like the 1/512 for the friend safari. So I actually need to be knocking out these pokemon like with the radar? Also, is the search level all that matters and not the actual number of the desired pokemon you've encountered consecutively? (I hope all that made sense heh).
that was just someone's guess based on data that was falsely spread around the internet as a fact - these are the actual odds based on what was datamined from the game
@@kirbywarp102 I already give up lol. I did Gligar breeding for a shiny got one after 85 eggs. Smh. Ralts just not for me I guess. Yesterday I got 3 shiny. But spend 2 weeks trying to get a shiny Ralts but end up with nothing seriously hurts me XD.
I hear that Pokemon conquest music
I'm one of the 10 people who played it so i can recognize it
@yashaal dyer its literally just pokemon fire emblem so try some of those games
which is a shame, because it was a good game.
Great video dude. It's not easy explaining something so complicated, but you made it look easy! There was a few times I was lost there xD However, hopefully everyone eventually sees this and realises that these are the true odds and stop spreading the all the other misguided and assumed odds.
Thank you so much!!!! Now my Dexnav shiny only quest is actually doable!! Already got a shiny Mudkip and Zigzagoon! What ever Pokémon the Dexnav chooses in a new route, is what i shiny search for (duplication clause in effect) wish me luck!! I’m limiting myself to 2 shinys per badge. 😁
Why... I’m so confused at this point. Literally me and two other friends have gotten over 20 dexnav shinies, but we don’t chain
Will Wozniak do you have the shiny charm
Chain affects only 50th And 100th encounter. Not 150th And so on. So it would be easier with chaining, though search level matters more)
Love the Pokemon conquest music :)
Played it forever it's a very fun "spin off" Pokemon game
So chain fish 20 times in a row to get the odds to 1/100, and then hope for the best after that, that’s not that bad! Hopefully I’ll catch a shiny Feebas!
OH OUI ENFIN ! La commu anglophone va pouvoir profiter de tes recherches :)
Really great explanation. Thank you for this! Now let's get the community to accept this as true, rather than blindly follow busted statistics/probability.
I am glad to see someone taking the right side on this. After the cases of people refusing Nbayoh's research, I am pleasantly surprised to see a video breaking it down as fact.
So basically... my 1100-ish DexNav encounters before I finally got a shiny Porygon weren't quite as unlucky as they seemed, and the Shiny Charm DOES have a significant impact on DexNav hunting. Good. I've been waiting for someone knowledgeable to dig this info out once and for all.
About that random 4% chance for the Dexnav, I just thought how it could have to do with the chance of getting a boosted level outside of every 5th encounter, which seems to also be 4%. Maybe the random shiny chance increase actually happens when the boosted level happens
Both shinies I have gotten from dexnav through my omega runy playthrough have been boosted level so maybe o.o the other three I got fishing lol
Very well done. Thank you for this!
Search level! I never would've expected that!
Hey man,long time no see,its RJ! Great Video!
Sup man!!! Thanks! It's been a while
Solid job you're doing, I just came here from the Pokemon Platinum shiny tutorial
when is the shinyness of dexnav pokemon determined? is before or after the battle (while sneaking up or after the encounter)?
Should I purposefully break my chain after 100 then? Then start again
Nah you want to keep the chain going as long as you can. Breaking the chain means taking steps to reset the Dexnav each encounter. The chain automatically resets back to 1 after reaching 100.
What are you hunting?
Seven years later and I’m using this to help me get shinies in my old omega Ruby save
Dex Nav is still one of the most convoluted methods in my opinion. Love Chain Fishing though!
(Before watching this vid) I think the dexnav odds increase whenever the pokemons level increase. (Therefore every 5 chain counts)
So if I had a search level of 999, can I just search and then soft reset and still have the same odds?
AceTrainerJ yep!
AbsolBlogsPokemon Thank you for letting me know. I didn’t expect you to respond since this video is pretty old.
so do chains in dexnav do not matter , is that it? i tried imputing numbers there and nothing changes
Blitz-o-Byte Chains do matter. At a Chain of 50 you get 5 extra shiny rerolls and chain of 100 you get 10 extra shiny rerolls. If your talking about the online calculator made by mrnbayoh? Try entering 49 or 99 in the chain section. Will show the odds for the next encounter the chain being the 50th or 100th. When putting in the number provided.
then dexnav chains doesn't incerase your shiny proba, just the search level does it right?
yep, unless you are at a chain of 50 or 100 where you get a slight boost for that encounter only
@@AbsolBlogsPokemon thanks! Currently I was looking for a shiny ralts, i did chains of 200 and nothing. Then i did a chain of 5 and it appeard but used teleport :( I'm still on it, i want it to do a shiny team!
@AbsolBlogsPokemon is there a set base odds for dex nav encounters or no?
I just thought of this today, is it worth soft resetting for your 100th Time seeing a Pokemon because you have 10 extra rolls? And the 4% could activate for 4 extra rolls, with charm adding 2 rolls, seems pretty good.
Camerupt12Playz does this work??
Camerupt12Playz ( sorry if this is late but) That's not how it works Sr is like encountering a specific Pokemon like let's say you hunt for treecko in oras, You are using the odds you have sr'ing doesn't change the odds for the shiny ( yes even if you get the shiny charm 1/1096 instead of 1/4096 if you're not chaning then the odds would stay the same.)
You cannot soft reset on while dex nav chaining. Doing so will result in the chain being broken.
Hey absol may i ask you a question?
In pokemon rumble brawl on 3ds is it possible to find a shiny?
Nope, only the original wii Rumble has natural shinies
RIP I spent 3 hours trying yesterday xD
Oh, I was wondering, where do you do your live streams?
Thx a lot been searching for the real odds for awhile 😅
I‘ve found that calculator before but I wasn’t sure if it was legit so this adds some credence to it
i got a shiny doing dex nav while i was watching this vid
Hopefully you (or anyone really) will respond to this and help me out…
So this whole Dex Nav method is really confusing because there’s around 2 or 3 theories floating around… and here’s exactly what I think based on experience, but please correct me if I’m wrong.
So I think that at some point in 2014/2015 there was an update that made Dex Nav shiny hunting behave exactly as described in this video, but before that update it behaved how most people described it such as chaining having to do with shiny odds.
This is why I believe this…
When I got the game the day it came out I beat it quickly and started shiny hunting using the Dex Nav method and I got 3 shiny Pokémon all within 300 “chains” and 2 of them being around 100. (100-120) It’s to be noted that I never broke my chain therefore my search level was around 100-120 as well. Now on the calculator it says that’s a 1/1,000 chance (without the shiny charm which I did not have) but I think that only applies to ORAS now because like I said I got 3 shinies relatively quickly…. Not only that, but on shiny hunting tutorial videos I’ve read A LOT AND I MEAN A LOT of people saying they also have got shiny Pokémon around 100 counters OR LESS. So the fact that SO MANY PEOPLE are getting shiny Pokémon THAT EARLY ON just doesn’t line up with the odds of having a search level of 100 being around a 1/1,000 chance of being shiny (even considering that 50th and 100th chain gives multiple rolls)
Now fast forward til about a week ago… I’m visiting family for the holidays since I’m now grown up and found my old 3DS and Alpha Sapphire… (my brother had played it so my save file is fine sadly, but he made this new game about a year ago - so the reason I say this is that there has been plenty of time for the game to have been updated since I got my shiny Pokémon easily using the Dex Nav like a week after the game came out) ANYWAYS back to my original point… I did the same exact thing I did 9 years ago using the old “chaining” method and got up to the upper 700s (750-780) with a search level of around 730-740 or so (which means I’ve gotten about 20-50 filler encounters to continue this “chain”) and eventually I ran out of super repels which I had 90-100 of them.
This happened yesterday btw, so now today I looked into it to see what I was doing wrong which led me to this video… and now using the logic in this video, the numbers seem more accurate. I went to another chain of 100 just for those added rolls and still no luck… so I’m now currently at 830 Lotad encounters with around 30-60 random encounters just to fill in the gaps to continue the chain.
Like I said before, these numbers seem about right since the first few hundred encounters will be like 1/2,000 - 1/800 chance or so, but then from like 500 - 800 (so those 300 encounters) are more like a 1/600 - 1/400 chance which at this point kinda seems like I SHOULD be on pace to get a shiny.
Now I understand that technically I could encounter 100,000 Pokémon each with a 1/400 chance and still not be guaranteed a shiny (essentially me saying I understand probability) but it seems that at this point not only does the statistics in this video seem accurate to my Lotad hunt, but I also feel like I’m starting to also get pretty bad luck/RNG.
One last thing worth mentioning is that like I said earlier how MANY MANY people said they have encountered shiny Pokémon in ~100 encounters, what I forgot to mention is that most if not pretty much all of those comments were 9 years ago. Every once in awhile I would see someone say they got it in around 500-1,000 encounters and it just so happens to be that most of those comments are dated around 7- years ago which gives my claim really good evidence that essentially at one point the chaining method was actually correct, but then an update game out and heavily nerfed people being able to get almost any shiny Pokémon in an hour or two very easily. Not to mention the shiny hunting method in Legends Arceus got nerfed too, though only slightly and they essentially made it inconsistent to be able to hunt a specific Pokémon, which is straight up concrete proof that shiny hunting methods have been nerfed already (though this example would be after they did it in ORAS assuming my assumption is correct)
So in conclusion I essentially explained my personal experience along with others with a wide pool of supporting detail that backs up my theory. In short back in 2014 I (and many others) could find shiny Pokémon using the Dex Nav easily within ~100 encounters MULTIPLE TIMES and now I’ve literally at a chain of 800+ without finding a single shiny Pokémon along with others saying that they’re also on really high encounters when they have found their shiny, but only those comments are dated recently whereas the vast majority if not all people who also have said they get a shiny in ~100 encounters are all pretty much 9 years ago, thus giving my theory some pretty good evidence.
(I can link the videos so anyone can read all the comments if anyone doesn’t believe me, just didn’t because I’m not sure if it would be marked as spam)
Hello I read your comment. Interesting theory , but I like to point out the chain resets back to 1 after 100. No buff in between 50 and 100. Your own data with most around 300 encounters/ search level is very normal with some in the 100’s. To my knowledge the Dexnav computation loop never had a change through game version update.
Details on how Dexnav is calculated is at (“MrNbaYoh’s Git hub”).
Chaining (no shiny charm) up to 300 encounters without breaking chain and non targeted Pokémon. starting at search level 0. Total cumulative shiny chance = ~28.67% odds of 96% ~1/803 , 4% ~1/191 (Average) ~1/713
50% mark search level 520, odds 96% ~1/692, 4% ~1/160 (average) ~1/612
Search level 740 total cumulative shiny chance = ~67.15% , odds 96% 1/608 , 4% ~1/138 , (Average) ~1/536
Reaching from search level 0 - 100 total cumulative shiny chance ~7.006%
If want to know how to calculate the odds your self. I left some comments to others in this video.
My conclusion is no changes where made.
@@GoldChopper So if you say the average is 1/713 - 1/536 explain how literally EVERYONE was getting them in 1-200 encounters? That's still less than half of the search level 740 odds. This still doesn't line up and it's not even close. You can find playlists of TONS of people getting them in 1-200 "chains" at a low search level, though they could have the shiny charm, but there's no way everyone did and everyone was getting them "statistically speaking" WAY too quickly. Also why did you stop at search level 740 when it goes to 999?
I ended up going to 1,500-1,600 encounters through the dex nev and then switched to an emulator and got to a chain of 99 then save stated at 99 to get those 10 extra rolls only to encounters hundreds (wasn't counting, but was a 999% emulation speed and was resetting save states for HOURS) and never got a shiny Lotad that way. What I did notice is that there was around 20 or so different combinations of Lotads. I noticed that there was mainly 3 different patches that they would only spawn in from the specific tile I save stated at and then I noticed that the potentials, abilities, movesets, etc. all lined up within those patches of grass, but each patch of grass had like 5 combinations or so of Lotads. If I'm understood correctly the shiny roll happens when you encounter the Pokemon, so there should have been a chance for those Lotads (with 10 extra rolls making it like 1/400 or so at search level 99 as well) to be shiny. I just ended up doing the horde method starting to think that the shiny factor is predetermined (even though I think that is incorrect, but I started to believe that at the time) to raise my search level to 999, but at 404 search level through using the horde method I FINALLY FOUND a shiny Lotad. All together I would say it was probably around 3,000 encounters and I find it laughable that more than 2,000 of those were with highly boosted odds through the Dex Nav and I ended up getting a full odds one through the horde method. (Horde method is considered full odds because every encounter is full odds, despite seeing 5 of them at once)
@@MindofInstincts average is referring to the 4% or 1/25 chance each Dexnav encounter to have +4 extra shiny rerolls. Secondly very confusing when u say “1-200 chains” when it resets back to 1 after 100.
I stopped at 740 to reflect your specific scenario.
Using a save state in a emulator will make the starting PRNG values the Seed 32 bit number, RNG State and Tiny MT to be same each time you reset when doing the “search level 99” Meaning you will hit same PIDs and PSV (Pokémon Shiny Value) if no shiny frames in range and none will be found.
In a way it’s partially predetermined
(Note) the moment the hidden Pokémon appears in the overworld. It’s already determined to be shiny or not.
The game is Pseudo Random meaning a pattern does exist. in the RNG.
*All I can say is they got lucky with either the forced shiny chance, random +4 extra shiny rerolls or a standard PID roll 1/4096 or ~1/1365.666721 with Dexnav fails.*
Example how it’s calculated with search level 999 (No shiny charm)
1. Search level 999
2. Convert search level to points
(1-100 = 6) (101-200 = 2) (201-999 = 1)
Total: 600 + 200 + 799 = 1599
3. Points / 100
(15.99)
4. Take the Ceil of the points. (Math.Ceil function) example math.ceil(2.1) = 3
15.99 -> 16
5. take the results / 10,000
16/10,000 0.0016 + 1/4096 = 0.0018441406
7. Convert to odds
1/0.0018441406 -> 1/542.2580035 (This is the shiny odds 96% of the time)
If want the weighted average you repeat the process
Inverse the probability 1-(x) and ^5 is number of shiny rerolls. (Initial + extra)
16/10,000 -> 0.0016 -> 1-(0.0016) -> 0.9984 -> 0.9984^5 -> 0.9920255591 -> 1-(0.9920255591) -> 0.0079744409 -> 1/0.0079744409
-> 1/125.4006409 -> 1/125.4006409 + 1/4096 = 0.0082185815 -> 1/0.0082185815 -> 1/121.6754984. (Random 4% shiny odds)
Lastly (0.96) x 1/542.2580035 + (0.04) x 1/121.6754984 = 0.0020991182 -> 1/476.3905148 (Weighted Average odds)
@@GoldChopper If you have discord you can drop it and we can chat there or even jump in a call if you're down.
Also I forgot to mention that I save stated BEFORE I clicked "search" on the Dex Nav meaning (I think) that the Pokemon hasn't spawned in the wild yet, therefore I'm pretty sure it's PIDs weren't determined yet (everytime I load the save state I hit "search" to force spawn the Lotad, I wasn't just hitting the same Lotad over and over again in the wild bc I knew that probably wouldn't work.)
@@MindofInstincts I do have discord. Onbthe other hand I don’t know what you mean by dropping it ?
As for the save state. Yeah it’s not determined yet on what you land, But you have the same 180 frame or so to land on if waited same range of time.
Nice, and what music is this?
This is Dungeon Theme 2 from Pokemon Conquest. It's a very fun spinoff game!
This is about to be a hit
Thanks for the video! Could you find a way to explain the SOS shiny chance, cause I don't believe that it's a chain and that the odds are 1/4096 until a chain of 70, because sooo many people are getting shinies under a chain of 70.
Yeah I haven't done much research on that yet, but I'd personally take anything you hear without proper datamining to back it up with a big grain of salt. I'm not a 3DS hacker/dataminer myself, but I will do my best to do some research and see what other people have found, and I might make a video if I find anything that contradicts what most people are believing right now.
Hi, thanks for answering. I just heard of it from aDrive's newest video, where a dataminer claimed to have found out the odds. Here's the link: www.reddit.com/r/pokemon/comments/5hmd9h/spoiler_some_more_indepth_mechanics_on_sos_battle/
So the higher the search level the higher the chances?
thanks absol, i needed this
Please answer. Could I stop at dexnav encounter level 99 and soft reset from there? Since my odds would be 10/4096
you could! I don't think the chaining bonus would apply since you're soft resetting, but the bonus from the search level would not go away
also is this a hundred percent proven? have you abused this system before and fully believe it? and what happens when you reach search level of 999. you wont be able to hit that 100 10/4096 chance again. and still to this day everyone is saying something different. and along with this it doesnt make any sense with the calculator included in the description. that is showing it goes up by each search level meaning at search level 999 my odds would always be 1/173.
It's not the 100th pokemon you get on the Search function, it's the 100th pokemon you chain. However Chaining vanishes with a soft reset.
dang 1/100 after only 20 fish chain encounters? that is crazy
i got to 148 and still no shiny magikarp :/
I got Alomomola and Staryu on chains of 4.
I got Barboach after a chain of 15... Twice.
I got my shiny magikarp like after a fishing chain of 15
What if the search level is at 999 aka the max search level
1/476
where's the new Vids?
So could you soft reset at 100 dexnav finds over and over till you get the shiny?
Collector A I think so
If you haven't found this somewhere else, no. If you reset the game, the chain breaks. End of story.
this is so complicated. This is why I stick to hordes and chain fishing
So is Dexnav or hordes better for shiny hunting?
Dexnav has higher potential than hordes, and guaranteed specific encounter unlike hordes with odds x Distribution for exact odds. At search level 301+ (without shiny charm) and (with shiny charm) is when odds are better than horde odds.
@@GoldChopper okay thanks that also answers my question about if search level matters for hordes I have 1,712 encounters at this point if the odds are now better I might switch to hordes
@@stingraykitten1796 I assume you’ve meant dexnav at the end? Hordes will increase search level +5 at a time no need to KO. Or how many of target show up in horde examples 35% hordes. Horde odds are not effected by search level. Only the fastest way to increase it for dexnav. Horde odds will always be 1-(4095/4096)^5 = ~1/820 or ~1/274 with charm.
@@GoldChopper okay thanks!
Does chain fishing still work in 2018?
Ammon stringham chain fishing is not possible in gen 7 to my knowledge but you could SOS instead
Lol, Full Odds actually mean base odds, like as in no method, just full 1/8096 (1/4062 in Gen 6+)
I agree! also, it's 8192 and 4096
Is this still understood to be true or has something more accurate came out?
Isaac Herring it is true!
Thanks buddy. Keep it up!!! Zel and you are my favorite poketubers!!!
Have my like for doing a good sneaking footage..
Wait. I thought "chaining" with the dexnav was just a myth and that your odds were pretty much a flat rate, like the 1/512 for the friend safari. So I actually need to be knocking out these pokemon like with the radar? Also, is the search level all that matters and not the actual number of the desired pokemon you've encountered consecutively? (I hope all that made sense heh).
Mr.Absolblog I can't beat the last boss on pokemon conquest but I lost the cartridge, Zekrom`s hard to beat the last time I played it
So, go fishing people
Dexnav is not determined on search level it’s random 1/512
that was just someone's guess based on data that was falsely spread around the internet as a fact - these are the actual odds based on what was datamined from the game
AbsolBlogsPokemon so why have so many people get it within 1-500 without the shiny charm
@@kirbywarp102 because it's still totally random. people do 1/8192 hunts and get the shiny within 100 encounters
AbsolBlogsPokemon so what that means is there’s no real odds
AbsolBlogsPokemon also does one search level effect all other Pokémon encountered while chaining that Pokémon
I'm at 706 dexnav Ralts chain
Not a single shiny. Bs.
A.R.M.Y Pain Buddy Pain CHOICE Pain yeah you should have found a shiny about now
@@kirbywarp102 I already give up lol. I did Gligar breeding for a shiny got one after 85 eggs. Smh. Ralts just not for me I guess. Yesterday I got 3 shiny. But spend 2 weeks trying to get a shiny Ralts but end up with nothing seriously hurts me XD.