I love friends with a wonderful balance of wisdom, intelligence, and wit. Jim and Consuelo have been a treat with coffee on a sunny California morning.
I have followed this guy for 30+ years. He is usually right and usually early with this calls. Very smart guy. However, the market is often not rational which is widely noted.
I like to listen to Jim Grant. But so many of these discussions seem to ignore the obvious. The FED is now an arm of the Treasury. The only reason they exist is to enable federal spending. Interests rates are where they are at because the federal budget cannot service their debt with higher rates. Inflation has been tame because we import deflation from China. But now China is preoccupied with internal struggles and production is not their priority. Thus inflation is caused by falling production of stuff. This is not the type of inflation that is controlled by higher rates because what is needed is more production and higher rates will not enable production . As rates increase and demand is suppressed, its likely that production will fall further.. As long as the fed can prevent it, rates will remain low, regardless of where inflation goes because the federal government cannot service it's debt with higher rates. Ironically, taxes also cannot increase because the congress says, "we don't need to endure the pain of higher taxes, we can just borrow more". Fundamentally we are moving from a general low margin/high volume business model to one of high margin low volume. Globalists somehow think this is a good thing but you need to numb a generation of people to the painful transition to this new feudal socialist order.
Leeh-Man-EverGleem, Debt Ceiling, truly high inflation (not transitory), record high unemployment, wrecked supply chain, housing market carried by MBS, no tapering and record low borrowing rates - there are so many indicators that this market is not correlated with high stock prices ! Thank you for the great shows by the way.
Very refreshing to see someone that recognizes the troubles ahead, and is willing to discuss them. In the interview, a question about what will happen with continued inflation, my answer is there will be a lot of poor people, that didn't use to be poor. Buckle up folks, it's gonna get ugly.
@@jackburton806 Your memory suffers sir. About three years ago( prior to COVID), unemployment was at the lowest level since 1964. Not sure how that would qualify. This is a business channel, just in case you didn't know.
I was born in 1966. I remember going to the grocery store with my mother and day old bread was 10 cents a loaf. She would only buy it when there was so much they would charge 5 cents a loaf. It blows my mind that was a period of inflation.
anyone who has been in China, and been in these buildings knows that 22% unoccupied is way way way too low. I have been in many buildings that are at LEAST 80% unoccupied. The new construction is largely empty, and largely lights off at night.
Inflation, debt and overleveraging increase exponentially faster now than 30 years ago when many financial experts learned their financial concepts. Even though we had computers 39 years ago the internet and super computers and finance has drastically changed exponentially. The US, China and the whole world have been living on credit kicking the can down the road but we have gotten to the end of the road with a bigger bubble than experts could predict and things are going to burst like never before.
You're right. Grant looks at things rationally and conservatively. In today's central bank funded hyper-bubbles he'll always be wrong, but in time he may be right.
Gold will never be the backing for currency again. It has little other use but bangles and as a value store that has declined in the past. The problem is the FED and the undisciplined printing of currency. We should end the FED, print US notes and not borrow a dime with the amount printed regulated by inflation which we would want at zero, not 2%. This would save $350 B immediately as interest payments would go away with the FED, so could the IRS. Taxes would not be required except during war.
Following Mr Grant’s career for 35 years... I’m still impressed with his accurate take on ALL things financial. He would have been a great choice for Treasury Secretary...but the system is too corrupt to have an honest man like him. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us, Mr Grant. All the best.
Beware the GLD Trust. They acknowledge NOT HAVING Allocated Gold holdings. PHYS is much superior in accounting for its holdings. Also PSLV for Silver which will rise faster than Gold...
@@pathcoinfirst8936 Yes, GLD is used by the Central Banksters to manipulate Gold lower by PRINTING more Fiat... so then people will take their Fiat and invest in Fiat Ponzi-tied investments and NOT Gold, further suppressing Gold price and elevating all Ponzi tied investments.... anyone who knows that Ponzi schemes ALWAYS fail can know with 100% Certainty Gold will have performed better than any asset after the Fiat Ponzi finally crashes...
Same with Bitcoin ETFs. They are cash settled futures so no Bitcoins will ever be bought, sold or delivered for settlement! The markets are all fraud you dont even own your stocks in nominee accounts!
Much of the current problems can be traced back to abnormally high rates in the 90's - Grant's book on interest rates say a 30 year rate of 2.5 to 3 percent is the historical average. When rates where constantly being Jerked around it killed long term capital intensive business in the US and created a Vampire culture of debt creatures who need more and more debt to live off the fat of the land. Add out of control military and social spending, made possible by this debt bubble and you have the perfect storm.
It all boils down to politicians buying themselves election with handouts, welfare, military, etc, it makes no difference, all the same. Debt and more debt.
A very gracious man and an effective interviewer. For the first time in the last year and a half for some reason I’m thinking of ways to fade the US dollar. It doesn’t feel good out there and “Real” things have more appeal. Something on the horizon isn’t right .
Actually, a guy named Andrew Left of Citron Research flagged the problem with Evergrande as early as 2012. You can still find his report online. CNBC had an interview with him not all that long ago.
To the wise commenters below that noted that it is not just Evergrande that is collapsing but the whose, ginormous, CCP, Chinese real estate development industry, because suppliers will want to now get pre-paid before they supply materials or services after getting burned, kudos. Similarly, most Chinese people are as logical and rational as any other people: thus, they will NOT want to give more money in advance to CCP real estate developers to use to build out the properties of prior "purchasers" and then later default on their construction months later. Even the CCP is now urging that apartments be sold finished, which will deprive the corrupt, CCP real estate developers of the funding (down payments from purchasers of real estate who are being promised that their apartments will be built later) and lead to their collapse. LOL.
Gold has done at a rate of around 8.125% cumulative investment from 36.5 USD per ounce in 1970 to 1810 in 2021. That is not bad performance ...its done reasonably well to keep a stable price.
Who says how much inflation we have? When house prices, cost of housing, cost of farmland, etc is rising, but they tell us, the inflation is low, i do not believe them.
The ONLY reason we have gotten away with printing money for as long as we have been is we have the reserve currency and we can pay our debt back in our own currency.
@@freeroamer9146 A lot of places were sold on land contracts. Every so often, I come across that amortization schedule and I decide to keep it as a reminder.
Silver looks like a better value to me than gold now, by the metric of discount to its trailing ten-year high. It is down more than 50%; meanwhile, gold is only about 10% down. Think of all those copper wires and electronic components that are silver-plated, for the ultimate electrical conductivity, a perennial source of demand, as the battery age is taking over.
IAU or GLD, SLV and if you want stocks you could go for gold and silver miners ETF for example. For a small enhancement (1-5% of total PF) you can buy LEAPS on a GLD/SLV ETF or even ultra silver, which is 2x Bloomberg Silver SubindexSM.
They've been rolling their eyes regarding Jim Grant since he was a regular on Louis Rukeyser. Even Lou snickered. Jim's fans have been predicting doom for almost 40 years now and it's still right around the corner. I did take his advice and invested in gold because I think it's the dumbest thing ever.
You must be old. Hope you will see Jim is right fundamentally. Timing is a problem. He was right in early 2000s till 2011. Gold prices went up 8 times. Pretty good return.
Inflation is surging but is man-made and is 'supply disruption' based, existing in a deflationary Euro Dollar global system. China is purposely deflating their real estate bubble slowly, shutting down power and manufacturing plants for X days per week, reducing coal imports from Australia (punishment related to Taiwan) and moving back to a 'Socialism phase' after 15 years of playing the Capitalism game to reduce poverty. Money is not printed in our US 'debt based economy', inflation is not long-term unless 'money velocity' is increased and long-term across all assets and loans are created. I believe growth (GDP) is on a global decline, as the top five Developed countries aging populations consume less. With $300 Trillion in global debts, our biggest concern should be focused on 'debt defaults' as the next 2022 global recession squeezes margins. China will be the driver of a downfall and EverGrande is the tip of the default iceberg that will trigger asset bubbles deflation.
Basic assumption: Interest rates are coupled to inflation. This was true in the past. These are now decoupled. We can have very high inflation rates and very low interest rates. The paradox is resolved in understanding that the hidden variable is the purchasing power of a fiat currency.
No Path, you need watch carefully, the price of gold, gold is natural hedge against inflation and it been going down. That tell you that there a lot "Deflation" still in the system right now.
@@raybod1775 Here we go, Ray Bod you nothing about Gold to begin with. You haven't even picked up an economics book in your life! So don't listen guy who can't even tell me the first thing about "Capitalism". 🙄🙄🙄
@@phirawhite5621 i think the home prices will go down, but i am not sure by how much. the major banks are positioning themselves to pick up forclosures and grab an even bigger piece of the pie (unfortunately)
Silver is the more undervalued but there is a very logical reason why gold hasn't responded to the actions of the FED and it hasnt to do with Cryptos or NFTS. Its being suppressed by the FED and Treasury. simple as that
What I do not understand about statement like -> “bonds at a 4000 years low .” How in the hell gold is not at a 4000 years all time high ? Something is very wrong in the market ….. I’m betting on gold . No way the 🇺🇸 can pay all those debts.
You forget, the US owns the printing presses. As long as the world makes USD the international exchange currency, we can just print more. And when we eventually print too much, it'll be incredibly bad. But that could still be 50 years away.
@@PatIreland Yes but it doesn’t matter they print . Every assets goes up with printing and gold should be at the top . Like in the 1970s. If rates are at all time low and we have inflation , makes no sense gold isn’t much higher . It’s extremely negative rates in action . I guess people over weight the dollar too much in the valuation of gold and not enough real rates .
It’s not just in China proper. I know in Thailand there are a bunch of Chinese owned apartments sitting vacant as they hoped to sell them to the growing Chinese middle class as vacation condos.
The oxygen in the room... due to crypto... precisely. The next dotcom bust of sorts, along with several other tech bubbles, e g. Uber, Lyft, dare I say ... Tesla? There's more, but enough for the point I think. Gold is up long term even if it's down on the short term.
Sorry but you're wrong about Bitcoin, there won't be a new Bitcoin, there will be improvements to layer 2 but the base layer due to network effects is here for a very very long time. TCP/IP is the perfect example, been around for 40 years, definitely better technology out there but it's the foundation of so much of the Internet that it's almost impossible to replace, and we've worked around it's weaknesses incredibly well.
Let me explain. Corporations and businesses have actual books that have to balance unlike the government. They have to raise prices to meet to meet costs. All this has to be passed onto customers or they go broke. Real estate has become the née store of value. I figured this out in the 1980s. Gold is proof of the work it took to produce the gold. Gold miners are making a ton of money. Grant doesn’t explain things very well. If he was a general, his troops would lose their battles.
I will remind Jim that Federal fiscal expenditures in the 1960's expanded to fund the Space Program, LBJ's Great Society "Guns AND Butter" program, and the growing expense of fighting in the Southeast Asian jungle. At the same time, JFK repaid his father by getting the tax cut through the Congress, providing more liquidity for both the financial markets and the trade economy. The result was growing Federal debt and deficits with a faster money multiplier (remember when we calculated that?) than anytime since World War II. The world saw the American economy was in trouble; de Gaulle took the first step to demand France's gold. That spooked the herd and a potential "run" on the US Gold supply and reserves (supposedly held on deposit by Western Europe nations) forced Nixon to close the Gold Window. From there, he appointed Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney to run wage and price controls. Both men were capitalists that had no idea how to run a socialist wage-price control program. After Nixon slithered off in disgrace, Gerald Ford scrapped the wage-price controls as a total failure. The result: dollar disgrace, OPEC dominance and a bad recession in 1974-75. Unemployment went to 12%, the CPI peaked at 15% and, as a commercial lending officer at the time, I saw the Prime rate peak at 22% on formerly "bankable unsecured business loans." Kissinger went on "shuttle diplomacy" to establish the petro-dollar. Once the oil embargos ended, the petro -dollar in place, then Paul Volker, the Fed chair appointed by Jimmy Carter, wrung money out of the economy to cool off the inflation and bring rates down. We paid for it in a deep, deep recession. But it got all the barnacles off the bottom of the economy for the Reagan economic recovery that lasted 129 quarters with a dip only in 92-93 for the "End of Cold War 'Peace Dividend.'" Jim, I'm 71 and have been on the sidelines since the Meltdown. The new kids in town don't know that they don't know. Old timers like ourselves fought the battle and somehow 'whipped inflation now.' It was a Hell of a ride and we weren't sure if the wheels were going to come off the economy but we made it through.
I remember it very well. Inflation in 1978 was 14%. Our company give everyone a 12% annual increase, but no one was impressed. We could do the math! The following year Ronald Reagan ran on that ticket saying he would put it all in order. It took a couple of years but he did just that! God Bless America 🇺🇲🇺🇲
10:52 "The Fed seems to be under the impression it is in charge of events" I think this statement by Mr. Grant may be more problematic than any of us know.
INFLATION by some is not seeing as a negative thing. When the price goes high less people will demand a service/product... that makes it more available for people that have money to pay a higher price. For a small percentage of people the cost of resources is not an issue and inflation will just clear out the way
The current gold price is NOT, in my mind anyway, inexplicable at all. Precious metals are being manipulated by this massive money printing that is flowing into the banks and wall street and prices purposefully being kept down via the derivatives markets. If gold was at $5k it would be putting massive pressure on the Fed to manage the money supply in a much more conservative and respectful manner. That is something that the current financial crime syndicate is not interested in. I would love to hear other perspectives on this. Am I wrong?
I remember it very well. Inflation in 1978 was 14%. Our company gave everyone a 12% annual increase, but no one was impressed. We could do the math! The following year Ronald Reagan ran on that ticket saying he would put it all in order. It took a couple of years but he did just that! God Bless America 🇺🇲🇺🇲
@@ednorton47 Yes, but that has not changed the negative affects of hyper inflation. Inflation is an equal opportunity provider in that it hurts everyone regardless of income. The only beneficiary is government!
It was put in order by the fed chair Volcker Carter put in. Both presidents left him alone to do what was painful and necessary. It just took a while and Reagan gets the credit. It was both of them.
The reason he’s been W.R.O.N.G. for 40 years is because he ignores the deflationary aspects of Digitization of the economy which isn’t over. Sure, over leverage because of low interest rates have led to much misallocation of resources, but also some good investment. All crashes are rooted in too much debt and sure they’ll be more, but, the arc of time has so far.been positive.
In a Ponzi Scheme, it is the PONZI aligned assets that perform best. The anti Ponzi does HORRIBLE until the Ponzi pops... then the anti Ponzi makes up for everything VERY quickly and the ponzi hodlers look like fools.
Money market is saying James Grant is a fool, and inflation is temporary. Money market is also saying each of you that think the USA is debasing their currency are fools. Money market is saying we're fine. Place your bets! I have...on gold, value stocks, silver. Time will tell who is the fool.
No, everything is controlled by the Federal Reserve supporting big banks and the bank’s investment firms. This is not a free market. We are all paying for everything through inflation. That’s why in the 1930’s the Glass-Steagal Act was passed, to prevent this corruption. It was repealed by Clinton.
![Interest Rates and Market Speculation with Financial Historian James Grant [2023]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/77CU6FGVRbQ/mqdefault.jpg)
![Bond Bear Market on the Horizon [2023]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/uoGdmrmqiBc/mqdefault.jpg)
I love friends with a wonderful balance of wisdom, intelligence, and wit. Jim and Consuelo have been a treat with coffee on a sunny California morning.
Wow, I am so happy I found this channel. Top notch quality. Thank you from the UK.
Right?
He definitely has a legitimate point, but the courtesy displayed in this video is a wonderful thing to see. Well done all.
Jim Grant has a good following - he is very smart and easy to listen to.
His last advice "Invest in something you don't believe in" is actual gold
Bitcoin?
@@wshyangify sure, as long as you are prepared to loss the lot if the big players cash in.
I have followed this guy for 30+ years. He is usually right and usually early with this calls. Very smart guy. However, the market is often not rational which is widely noted.
Trouble with permabears... more Money is lost waiting for a correction then ever in a correction!
@@eliasjanetis Buy LEAPS on SLV and you'll make up those losses by a lot
I like to listen to Jim Grant. But so many of these discussions seem to ignore the obvious. The FED is now an arm of the Treasury. The only reason they exist is to enable federal spending. Interests rates are where they are at because the federal budget cannot service their debt with higher rates.
Inflation has been tame because we import deflation from China. But now China is preoccupied with internal struggles and production is not their priority. Thus inflation is caused by falling production of stuff. This is not the type of inflation that is controlled by higher rates because what is needed is more production and higher rates will not enable production .
As rates increase and demand is suppressed, its likely that production will fall further.. As long as the fed can prevent it, rates will remain low, regardless of where inflation goes because the federal government cannot service it's debt with higher rates. Ironically, taxes also cannot increase because the congress says, "we don't need to endure the pain of higher taxes, we can just borrow more".
Fundamentally we are moving from a general low margin/high volume business model to one of high margin low volume. Globalists somehow think this is a good thing but you need to numb a generation of people to the painful transition to this new feudal socialist order.
in a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act
A dive into the mind of a logical thinker.
Leeh-Man-EverGleem, Debt Ceiling, truly high inflation (not transitory), record high unemployment, wrecked supply chain, housing market carried by MBS, no tapering and record low borrowing rates - there are so many indicators that this market is not correlated with high stock prices ! Thank you for the great shows by the way.
Yes and all good things come to an end .
Break down in supply lines seems to be worsening and lengthening. Very scary, threatening.
What do you suggest?
@@DennisRay99 hodl
Very refreshing to see someone that recognizes the troubles ahead, and is willing to discuss them. In the interview, a question about what will happen with continued inflation, my answer is there will be a lot of poor people, that didn't use to be poor. Buckle up folks, it's gonna get ugly.
I can't remember any year in the last 40 where you couldn't say the same thing.
@@jackburton806 Your memory suffers sir. About three years ago( prior to COVID), unemployment was at the lowest level since 1964. Not sure how that would qualify. This is a business channel, just in case you didn't know.
Jim Grant was only wrong because the markets were insane. His intelligence is obvious.
I was born in 1966. I remember going to the grocery store with my mother and day old bread was 10 cents a loaf. She would only buy it when there was so much they would charge 5 cents a loaf. It blows my mind that was a period of inflation.
The horse had just escaped then, not getting tired for 15 years.
That's the year that I started my first part time job after school. $1.60 per hour.
anyone who has been in China, and been in these buildings knows that 22% unoccupied is way way way too low. I have been in many buildings that are at LEAST 80% unoccupied. The new construction is largely empty, and largely lights off at night.
Inflation, debt and overleveraging increase exponentially faster now than 30 years ago when many financial experts learned their financial concepts. Even though we had computers 39 years ago the internet and super computers and finance has drastically changed exponentially. The US, China and the whole world have been living on credit kicking the can down the road but we have gotten to the end of the road with a bigger bubble than experts could predict and things are going to burst like never before.
Great to see that Jim Grant is still alive.
I always enjoy Jim Grant. Too bad he is always wrong. Still, thought-provoking discourse is always welcome.
You're right. Grant looks at things rationally and conservatively. In today's central bank funded hyper-bubbles he'll always be wrong, but in time he may be right.
Gold will never be the backing for currency again. It has little other use but bangles and as a value store that has declined in the past. The problem is the FED and the undisciplined printing of currency. We should end the FED, print US notes and not borrow a dime with the amount printed regulated by inflation which we would want at zero, not 2%. This would save $350 B immediately as interest payments would go away with the FED, so could the IRS. Taxes would not be required except during war.
Thank you again for another informative piece. I appreciate your work.
Following Mr Grant’s career for 35 years... I’m still impressed with his accurate take on ALL things financial.
He would have been a great choice for Treasury Secretary...but the system is too corrupt to have an honest man
like him. Thank you for sharing your knowledge with us, Mr Grant. All the best.
One of the best interviews I've seen for a while, thankyou.
Beware the GLD Trust. They acknowledge NOT HAVING Allocated Gold holdings. PHYS is much superior in accounting for its holdings. Also PSLV for Silver which will rise faster than Gold...
Gold is heavily manipulated through market action of GLD. Spot price of gold is not doing much better. No demand for gold at the margin.
@@pathcoinfirst8936 Yes, GLD is used by the Central Banksters to manipulate Gold lower by PRINTING more Fiat... so then people will take their Fiat and invest in Fiat Ponzi-tied investments and NOT Gold, further suppressing Gold price and elevating all Ponzi tied investments.... anyone who knows that Ponzi schemes ALWAYS fail can know with 100% Certainty Gold will have performed better than any asset after the Fiat Ponzi finally crashes...
@@mr3817 Timeframes; timeframes; timeframes; all value comes from the market; assets go through bull and bear markets; even gold.
Same with Bitcoin ETFs. They are cash settled futures so no Bitcoins will ever be bought, sold or delivered for settlement! The markets are all fraud you dont even own your stocks in nominee accounts!
I hope we have Jim Grant on again soon.
Much of the current problems can be traced back to abnormally high rates in the 90's - Grant's book on interest rates say a 30 year rate of 2.5 to 3 percent is the historical average. When rates where constantly being Jerked around it killed long term capital intensive business in the US and created a Vampire culture of debt creatures who need more and more debt to live off the fat of the land. Add out of control military and social spending, made possible by this debt bubble and you have the perfect storm.
It all boils down to politicians buying themselves election with handouts, welfare, military, etc, it makes no difference, all the same. Debt and more debt.
Thank you for mentioning GOLD. Would you please do a show on precious metals.
9:00. No paradox….when the same people control the interest rates and the money supply, they keep interest rates zero and pump more money…..
Thank you Consuelo for such a long running and valued educational program. I hope for more great years of value.
I think Consuelo changed her hair a bit. Looks very nice!
@@thyslop1737 You sound like your mother!
@@freeroamer9146 You know my Mom? Sweet. How did you meet? Did you cut her grass, change her oil?
A very gracious man and an effective interviewer. For the first time in the last year and a half for some reason I’m thinking of ways to fade the US dollar. It doesn’t feel good out there and “Real” things have more appeal. Something on the horizon isn’t right .
Actually, a guy named Andrew Left of Citron Research flagged the problem with Evergrande as early as 2012. You can still find his report online. CNBC had an interview with him not all that long ago.
And he got banned from trading for years
To the wise commenters below that noted that it is not just Evergrande that is collapsing but the whose, ginormous, CCP, Chinese real estate development industry, because suppliers will want to now get pre-paid before they supply materials or services after getting burned, kudos. Similarly, most Chinese people are as logical and rational as any other people: thus, they will NOT want to give more money in advance to CCP real estate developers to use to build out the properties of prior "purchasers" and then later default on their construction months later.
Even the CCP is now urging that apartments be sold finished, which will deprive the corrupt, CCP real estate developers of the funding (down payments from purchasers of real estate who are being promised that their apartments will be built later) and lead to their collapse. LOL.
Well put. I was thinking similar thoughts due to the obvious flaw in their financing model but that was much better articulated.
What a sharp mind and Grant's hypnotic eyes nails me to the screen.
My take away: make sure you have some cash for when rates rise, stocks will fall.
Debt can be a way other than a printing press to create money out of thin air. It tends to work until it doesn't.
The debate will end dramatically when it all corrects 80%
Gold has done at a rate of around 8.125% cumulative investment from 36.5 USD per ounce in 1970 to 1810 in 2021. That is not bad performance ...its done reasonably well to keep a stable price.
Who says how much inflation we have?
When house prices, cost of housing, cost of farmland, etc is rising, but they tell us, the inflation is low, i do not believe them.
thank you. excellent interview
The ONLY reason we have gotten away with printing money for as long as we have been is we have the reserve currency and we can pay our debt back in our own currency.
I think Bitcoin has been taking a lot of the pressure off gold. Sad thing GOLD is real money, Bitcoin is not.
I have amortization schedule payment book that was published in 1980. The rates started at 8.75% and went up to 26% interest.
I remember it well!
@@freeroamer9146 A lot of places were sold on land contracts. Every so often, I come across that amortization schedule and I decide to keep it as a reminder.
Great video!
Listening to Grant and all I can think of is Lurch from Addams Family.
Hi,thank a so much from Seoul
China is simultaneously an "Emerging Market" and "The World's Second Largest Economy." ..... Love it.
Two great brillant people DAn
Great info, always very insightful observations from Mr Grant.
Silver looks like a better value to me than gold now, by the metric of discount to its trailing ten-year high. It is down more than 50%; meanwhile, gold is only about 10% down. Think of all those copper wires and electronic components that are silver-plated, for the ultimate electrical conductivity, a perennial source of demand, as the battery age is taking over.
That's what they're saying, along with a lot of finagling currently being done by the banks on silver!?! 🥴
@@freeroamer9146 Yeah, since I posted that, Barron's published an article justifying the purchase of silver ahead of gold...
As many remember interest rates during President Carter were at 22%!!! I couldn’t GIVE MY HOUSE AWAY the mortgage was crazy high!
What is the best way to invest in gold? The real one or stocks?
Both I would recommend buying physical gld and slv and investing into a good gold miner and kirkland lake gold is one I own. I hope I helped !
IAU or GLD, SLV and if you want stocks you could go for gold and silver miners ETF for example. For a small enhancement (1-5% of total PF) you can buy LEAPS on a GLD/SLV ETF or even ultra silver, which is 2x Bloomberg Silver SubindexSM.
raising the interest rate a quarter of a percent would destabilize the entire economy.
Nah. Not till it's the one that does.
Did he just say,"more better?"
One fund I like for these times is Jeff Gundlach's DoubleLine CAPE. People think it's a stock fund, but it's a balanced, hedge fund of sorts.
When money leaves stocks, it goes into property. Just do not over leverage, in case property prices drop a lot.
I think it's fine if inflation persists and you do not sell.
It will be great if caption is available. It is hard to catch up after a long day of work.
They've been rolling their eyes regarding Jim Grant since he was a regular on Louis Rukeyser. Even Lou snickered. Jim's fans have been predicting doom for almost 40 years now and it's still right around the corner. I did take his advice and invested in gold because I think it's the dumbest thing ever.
You must be old. Hope you will see Jim is right fundamentally. Timing is a problem. He was right in early 2000s till 2011. Gold prices went up 8 times. Pretty good return.
very very good, balanced and insightful investment popcast. i learn alot from it. refreshing pointers
Inflation is surging but is man-made and is 'supply disruption' based, existing in a deflationary Euro Dollar global system. China is purposely deflating their real estate bubble slowly, shutting down power and manufacturing plants for X days per week, reducing coal imports from Australia (punishment related to Taiwan) and moving back to a 'Socialism phase' after 15 years of playing the Capitalism game to reduce poverty. Money is not printed in our US 'debt based economy', inflation is not long-term unless 'money velocity' is increased and long-term across all assets and loans are created. I believe growth (GDP) is on a global decline, as the top five Developed countries aging populations consume less. With $300 Trillion in global debts, our biggest concern should be focused on 'debt defaults' as the next 2022 global recession squeezes margins. China will be the driver of a downfall and EverGrande is the tip of the default iceberg that will trigger asset bubbles deflation.
I can’t take your green bow tie seriously
Why in the world does he say that gold will not be approved? What does that mean? Someone please tell me?
He said that gold is not to be “improved upon”. Same as it ever was. Comparing to cryptocurrencies where the future will bring improved versions.
Brilliant. There is no substitution for experience.
Suprised he didn't say gold is heavily manipulated....
2 thumbs up for James - great guy great writer sign up for his free newsletter A1
Basic assumption: Interest rates are coupled to inflation. This was true in the past. These are now decoupled. We can have very high inflation rates and very low interest rates. The paradox is resolved in understanding that the hidden variable is the purchasing power of a fiat currency.
No Path, you need watch carefully, the price of gold, gold is natural hedge against inflation and it been going down. That tell you that there a lot "Deflation" still in the system right now.
The price of gold tells us there is no demand for gold.
@@Madame702 The gold price is controlled by naked derivatives, not backed by gold. If gold was a free market, price could easily be $3000 an ounce.
@@raybod1775 Here we go, Ray Bod you nothing about Gold to begin with. You haven't even picked up an economics book in your life! So don't listen guy who can't even tell me the first thing about "Capitalism". 🙄🙄🙄
@@Madame702 You know nothing about me, but I will say I made the most money trading options on gold before I retired.
Consider a precious metals royalty company. FrancoNevada- FNV. Also EMX. Sandstorm - SAND.
very few people understand the magnitude of this problem. when the sh*t really starts to hit the fan the mess will be /everywhere/
Do you think it will affect US house price?
@@phirawhite5621 i think the home prices will go down, but i am not sure by how much. the major banks are positioning themselves to pick up forclosures and grab an even bigger piece of the pie (unfortunately)
@@avatareyes1 I will be happy even if its come down 10-20%, first time homebuyers here
Silver is the more undervalued but there is a very logical reason why gold hasn't responded to the actions of the FED and it hasnt to do with Cryptos or NFTS. Its being suppressed by the FED and Treasury. simple as that
What I do not understand about statement like -> “bonds at a 4000 years low .”
How in the hell gold is not at a 4000 years all time high ?
Something is very wrong in the market …..
I’m betting on gold .
No way the 🇺🇸 can pay all those debts.
You forget, the US owns the printing presses. As long as the world makes USD the international exchange currency, we can just print more. And when we eventually print too much, it'll be incredibly bad. But that could still be 50 years away.
@@PatIreland
Yes but it doesn’t matter they print .
Every assets goes up with printing and gold should be at the top .
Like in the 1970s.
If rates are at all time low and we have inflation , makes no sense gold isn’t much higher .
It’s extremely negative rates in action .
I guess people over weight the dollar too much in the valuation of gold and not enough real rates .
It’s not just in China proper. I know in Thailand there are a bunch of Chinese owned apartments sitting vacant as they hoped to sell them to the growing Chinese middle class as vacation condos.
When they gonna bust Powell for insider trading?
The oxygen in the room... due to crypto... precisely. The next dotcom bust of sorts, along with several other tech bubbles, e g. Uber, Lyft, dare I say ... Tesla? There's more, but enough for the point I think.
Gold is up long term even if it's down on the short term.
Tesla is gonna eventually be the go to name for overvalued hyped assets this time.
Sorry but you're wrong about Bitcoin, there won't be a new Bitcoin, there will be improvements to layer 2 but the base layer due to network effects is here for a very very long time. TCP/IP is the perfect example, been around for 40 years, definitely better technology out there but it's the foundation of so much of the Internet that it's almost impossible to replace, and we've worked around it's weaknesses incredibly well.
Let me explain.
Corporations and businesses have actual books that have to balance unlike the government.
They have to raise prices to meet to meet costs. All this has to be passed onto customers or they go broke.
Real estate has become the née store of value. I figured this out in the 1980s.
Gold is proof of the work it took to produce the gold.
Gold miners are making a ton of money.
Grant doesn’t explain things very well.
If he was a general, his troops would lose their battles.
Europe had Parmalat, US had, Solyndra, China felt so left out.
There ya go guys! Nice one.
Money is working we have security; money is an immaterial machine.
I will remind Jim that Federal fiscal expenditures in the 1960's expanded to fund the Space Program, LBJ's Great Society "Guns AND Butter" program, and the growing expense of fighting in the Southeast Asian jungle. At the same time, JFK repaid his father by getting the tax cut through the Congress, providing more liquidity for both the financial markets and the trade economy.
The result was growing Federal debt and deficits with a faster money multiplier (remember when we calculated that?) than anytime since World War II.
The world saw the American economy was in trouble; de Gaulle took the first step to demand France's gold. That spooked the herd and a potential "run" on the US Gold supply and reserves (supposedly held on deposit by Western Europe nations) forced Nixon to close the Gold Window.
From there, he appointed Don Rumsfeld and Dick Cheney to run wage and price controls. Both men were capitalists that had no idea how to run a socialist wage-price control program.
After Nixon slithered off in disgrace, Gerald Ford scrapped the wage-price controls as a total failure. The result: dollar disgrace, OPEC dominance and a bad recession in 1974-75. Unemployment went to 12%, the CPI peaked at 15% and, as a commercial lending officer at the time, I saw the Prime rate peak at 22% on formerly "bankable unsecured business loans." Kissinger went on "shuttle diplomacy" to establish the petro-dollar.
Once the oil embargos ended, the petro -dollar in place, then Paul Volker, the Fed chair appointed by Jimmy Carter, wrung money out of the economy to cool off the inflation and bring rates down. We paid for it in a deep, deep recession. But it got all the barnacles off the bottom of the economy for the Reagan economic recovery that lasted 129 quarters with a dip only in 92-93 for the "End of Cold War 'Peace Dividend.'"
Jim, I'm 71 and have been on the sidelines since the Meltdown. The new kids in town don't know that they don't know. Old timers like ourselves fought the battle and somehow 'whipped inflation now.' It was a Hell of a ride and we weren't sure if the wheels were going to come off the economy but we made it through.
Gold is telling you what the price of all assets are really worth. Gold will not go up but everything else will crash.
As long as it doesn’t effect me
Preempting the horse opera Bonanza. I got a kick out of that.
You could retitle this vid as, 'James Grant: "I told you so."'
I remember it very well. Inflation in 1978 was 14%. Our company give everyone a 12% annual increase, but no one was impressed. We could do the math! The following year Ronald Reagan ran on that ticket saying he would put it all in order. It took a couple of years but he did just that! God Bless America 🇺🇲🇺🇲
A great mind
Gold is not responding to this monetary problem..........but Bitcoin is! Bitcoin is going higher and higher!
10:52 "The Fed seems to be under the impression it is in charge of events" I think this statement by Mr. Grant may be more problematic than any of us know.
In the last days a man will have to work one day for a loaf of bread.
gold and silver are suppressed by futures dumped on the market by the same people who own comex and lbma
Is this all not pointing to an open ledger 📒 like BITCOIN THAT CANNOT BE CONTROLLED
INFLATION by some is not seeing as a negative thing. When the price goes high less people will demand a service/product... that makes it more available for people that have money to pay a higher price. For a small percentage of people the cost of resources is not an issue and inflation will just clear out the way
This is not true. Falling demand will cause falling prices. If you don't believe me, as Lord Keynes.
If I need to own something I don’t believe in it would be Bitcoin. It was created by tech and so a New and Better Bitcoin is inevitable.
If it costs more to build than people can afford, then quit building.
How can the Fed be leveraged 300 to 1 when they can print money out of thin air?
@Buster Crabbe where does tve Fed get the money to buy treasuries and mortgage backed securities when they are doing quantitative easing?
11:37 Today, his nickname around the water coolers on Wall St. is perhaps McChesney "Punchbowl" Martin for his quote about his job to take it away.
The current gold price is NOT, in my mind anyway, inexplicable at all. Precious metals are being manipulated by this massive money printing that is flowing into the banks and wall street and prices purposefully being kept down via the derivatives markets. If gold was at $5k it would be putting massive pressure on the Fed to manage the money supply in a much more conservative and respectful manner. That is something that the current financial crime syndicate is not interested in. I would love to hear other perspectives on this. Am I wrong?
Lack of evidence. Can't say it's right without proof.
JP Morgan plead guilty the gold market manipulation and paid hundreds of millions of fines to the government. Does that count?
China has been making serial multiple mistakes and the results are compounding. I have carefully avoided Chinese stocks for months.
I remember it very well. Inflation in 1978 was 14%. Our company gave everyone a 12% annual increase, but no one was impressed. We could do the math! The following year Ronald Reagan ran on that ticket saying he would put it all in order. It took a couple of years but he did just that! God Bless America 🇺🇲🇺🇲
It was a different U.S. economy back then.
@@raybod1775 In what way?
@@freeroamer9146 Most products were actually manufactured in the USA by US workers.
@@ednorton47 Yes, but that has not changed the negative affects of hyper inflation. Inflation is an equal opportunity provider in that it hurts everyone regardless of income. The only beneficiary is government!
It was put in order by the fed chair Volcker Carter put in. Both presidents left him alone to do what was painful and necessary. It just took a while and Reagan gets the credit. It was both of them.
The reason he’s been W.R.O.N.G. for 40 years is because he ignores the deflationary aspects of Digitization of the economy which isn’t over. Sure, over leverage because of low interest rates have led to much misallocation of resources, but also some good investment. All crashes are rooted in too much debt and sure they’ll be more, but, the arc of time has so far.been positive.
He doesnt seem to u understand that gold prices are being manipulated
In a Ponzi Scheme, it is the PONZI aligned assets that perform best.
The anti Ponzi does HORRIBLE until the Ponzi pops... then the anti Ponzi makes up for everything VERY quickly and the ponzi hodlers look like fools.
Thank you Bill Nye The Science Guy!
Hey Mr. Grant, let me introduce you to a new inflation hedge asset class. Lego.
Money market is saying James Grant is a fool, and inflation is temporary. Money market is also saying each of you that think the USA is debasing their currency are fools. Money market is saying we're fine. Place your bets! I have...on gold, value stocks, silver. Time will tell who is the fool.
No, everything is controlled by the Federal Reserve supporting big banks and the bank’s investment firms. This is not a free market. We are all paying for everything through inflation. That’s why in the 1930’s the Glass-Steagal Act was passed, to prevent this corruption. It was repealed by Clinton.
Bill Nye the interest guy.
Okay ✌ ok
Mr. Grant, Pee Wee Herman just texted...
"I want my bowtie back."
Another one next week.😁
4:54 nearly one quarter of all Chinese residential real estate is vacant? This must be tens of millions of homes.