The Inflation Deflation Debate | The Big Conversation | Refinitiv
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- Опубликовано: 13 дек 2024
- This week Real Vision’s Roger Hirst uses Refinitiv's best-in-class data to look at the likelihood that the recent spike in US CPI data is a sign of higher inflation to come, or whether deflation is baked in the cake. Fiscal and monetary policy are expected to drive inflation higher, yet these policies may continue to exacerbate the deflationary effects. In the Chatter, we review the recent surge in US and UK housing data, even whilst mortgage delinquencies rise. In the Whisper, we look at the drop off in market volume that is extreme even for the vacation period, increasing the risk of equity air pockets.
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This is an excellent analysis. Well done Refinitiv/Real Vision
What I like about roger is that he is just calling it how the data reads. No hyperbolic claims just real observations with possible outcomes. Very refreshing.
Roger is toooooooooooooooooooooooo good. Extraordinary Infact. A Genius! :)
A picture worth thousand words...Roger Hirst, the man who can describe better than a picture the economic situation . A very eloquent personality. Thank you for your informative- educational
videos . Regards from Helsinki, Finland.
I am so angry and frustrated with this no inflation lie. Housing and all its accompanying taxes and costs are up dramatically, as are autos, education, healthcare, insurance, travel, entertainment, etc.
No worry wages had no inflation. 👍
FOOD!
It's true. It's so obvious when you look at the data. I cant believe how Raoul cant see this. Maybe because he is in the Cayman Islands and doesnt have to worry about price indexes or taxes because he is already set for life.
We’re
Excellent and very relevant as usual - this show is always on the money.
Excellent pun. I enjoy witty comment sections. 👍
And governments are always overspending money they don't have. Here come wild inflation to service their insane debts.
You are always on the point guys.
Inflation is good if you already own your assets. Terrible for the younger generation.
Not really. Inflation is great if you have debt because the debt remains the same in nominal terms while in theory your income goes up with inflation and makes it easier to service your debt.
@@toms8483 inflation doesn't always equal higher wages. They usually lag and come later. If home prices are going up, way up they become harder to obtain. Especially if all of your other expenses also go up. Debt is never a good thing to be in because of compound interest. That's money you could have in assets that actually keep up with inflation instead of dwindling you down to poverty 💯
forget the assets, increasing food prices and declining wages is a combination for riots
@ykshootraw x it follows a limited amount not enough though. So minimum wage used to buy more bread or gold from a paycheck then it does now and this buying power always decreased every decade.
@ykshootraw x The swiss economy have experienced both economic growth and mild deflation at the same time in recent years. The median income have risen by 1 to 1.5 while cpi have been falling by roughly 0.5 percent yearly for some time now.
love this, great work good sir
Brilliantly balanced and thought provoking content as usual from Refinitiv.
refreshing and clear view of current events. Roger, Thank you for sharing your insight and research with us :)
great informative episode. cheers
Excellent. Informative. Thank you.
Very clearly projected - thank you
Housing always lags recessions by 12 to18 months..
Thank you very much for your useful information to understand current equity market and fear of inflation.
Awesome content again. We are all worried about the possible inflation with all the printing that’s going on
That's funny a lot of people I know think everything is fine
Manny Ord on the surface it all looks fine. But manufacturing money is never good. It might not affect us in this lifetime but the effects will come sooner or laher
Excellent💯
Thank you for your excellent content and data driven analysis. As a sporadic trader trying to become an investor it is truly refreshing and educational.
man like Roger
The economy is like a spring. A combination of high easing pressure plus high savings is winding up to store economic energy. Once the spring is tripped, that energy will be released via a surge in spending. Look at the correlation of inflation to M2 velocity. Inflation tends to be highest when M2V increases, not when M2 money supply increases like what natural intuition will tell you. By inflation I am referring to the new Keynesian definition of price inflation.
There is NO inflation, the lost middle class is just getting a lot poorer.
@@governmentofficial_23 I was just kidding, there is inflation and lots of it in many forms. People getter poorer is just one of them.
@@governmentofficial_23 Enough of what?
@@governmentofficial_23 It will never happen.
@@governmentofficial_23 How old are you?
That is a great idea for a really cheap desk . A file cabinet with wood on top
Although CPI has fallen less than during previous recessions, it is still lower than on all but two previous occasions since 1970.
In the future even the manipulated CPI will rise exponentially. In my opinion the only reason why hyperinflation hasn’t already started has something to do with the demand that the extra liquidity created by money printing has created. Once inflation reaches a certain point where demand dwindles I believe that this will be a turning point.
Prats the lot of them! Don't they understand basic common sense. Inflation is where there are shortages in the system of real supplies in the real world . Deflation is where the price has to move down and down because either the offering is unwanted or it cannot be afforded by the populace to whom, it is offered. There is no custom at the bank regardless of reserves if there is not enough custom base that can bear the debt payback.
Well, I'll say one thing, if you compare Bloomberg to Refinitiv Datastream, it's a deflationary world with respect to this one data point. And Bloomberg only has one option, lower prices and lay people off!
It's all about supply and demand. Too much money is an excess. That's inflationary. But that's the Fed's only available tool. With the UBI that's coming, that will take care of the velocity of money 💰
You’re dreaming of you think we’re getting UBI without a revolution. The rich want to stay rich and keep the poor poor.
The guy in the back, sitting at the table, never moves. How come? ;-)
I saw him move.
He's one of the most mysterious returning characters on RUclips.
He is a bot. The future is now...is now...is now!
How has inflation for industries that have been closed measured?
Disrehyperinflagstation?
The more I know, the less I am sure what’s going to happen...
thank you for the informative video!
🧡💛💚💙 Inflation is coming. The numbers are rigged anyway.
lol all the flashions xD
is this a correction? or its rolling over, i just cannot see it keep going higher, if theres a liquidity prob metals will be sold too like oil, gasoline is falling of a cliff just like on last crash.
The guy in the background has gone into rigor.
CPI numbers are nonsense. They have been for years...what aspect of life is remaining the same or getting cheaper? Only technology.
Tech is the only sector in which Murphy's law applies. Everywhere else is the domain of Humans.
Inadvertent MMT has begun.
Not inadvertent, rather "degenerate".
They don't plan for the government Job guarantee scheme (which is a REQUIREMENT in MMT implementation). It's all about pumping markets and watching the wealthy grab more assets.
As usual, the Fed only serves its own mates' interests.
The world needs helicopter money, but none of these Central (bogus) Banks is able to do that. Kinda like the dog that is locked in a kennel and keeps barking as the burglar empties the house.
Inflation in UK at 2%, great joke even council didn't believe it and increased rent by 3,5%. 😂
Edit:
Only my company believed it and put wage up by 2%. Strangely most of prices in shop went up like 20% this year or reduced weight of products or both...
Inflation
The only thing that is clear is market activity, rigged or otherwise on the back of data, fudged or or not. Either way, common sense suggests the same old nonsense.
Hej
Did you delete my previous comment?
i deleted it by accident sorry
Refinitive made me lose all my money. You're so mean.
@Joalan Pinto This guy isnt R Pal. This guy is saying pretty much the opposite to Raoul, as far as i could understand.
inflaty, but mostly peaceful money printing
No inflation for now, mainly because of low lending demand. Spoiler, fed doesn't "print" despite most people think so. Fed was created to fight inflation not deflation....
Real estate is loving 2.8% rates. But oil is in the low $40s.
Lending is headed further south and we are a debt based economy. The bond market is warning us.
looking tan
Looks like someone had some fun in the sun and brought back a dashing tan. It's just too bad that all those social distancing measures are keeping the ladies away.
“Infinite MMT could eventually be inflationary.” Wow, I have to say, it breathtaking insights like this that keep bringing me back to The Real conversation. Totally not the algorithms.