I remember hearing you using martial art analogies to describe poker strategy, and it occurs to me that bet sizing has a close analogy to different types of punches/kicks. A small bet is like a jab, some capacity for damage but also useful for gauging distance and not over committing, at the same time it might be used against weak opposition because a bigger strike means wasted energy. An overbet is like a haymaker, very powerful, but exposes one to being countered. This is also why we use it only when we have a nut advantage!
I agree with this being likely. If he thinks the smaller size is exploitably thin value heavy and that most of the bluffs are going into the big size, then it means Nacho would have a lot of one-pair hands OTR. Against a range that’s usually Ax and doesn’t have many bluffs, then donking becomes very profitable.
@@shaiguelman3468Very true! 👍 - On the flipside, however, the donk strongly reeks Value; so that Nacho could consider to overfold his already condensed range: 78s is in the sim already close to indifferent, e.g.
I would think the reason 4s would fold mainly vs 2s on the flop has to do with the 4 on the turn leading to the possibility of getting set vs straight, whereas with 2s your set outs are cleaner
Yep I agree. You wanna make your turned set when no draws complete. Thus making 22>44/55 etc. I don't think the blocking bluffs aspect matters much in this scenario cos you still have two streets to come- so it's very unlikely 22/44 can call and reach showdown very easily. They are more likely just combos that we call so that we have bluffs on high EV turn/rivers for OOP. Like on the 9c/8c etc. However, if we were on the river and had 22 or 44, then it would likely be much better to hero call 22 for the reasons that Uri outlined- we unblock all the 4x potential bluff combos.
maybe part of the reason yes, 65s is only 4 combinations and it's even mixing in checks tho, so I'd imagine the unblocking properties of 22 is the primary reason. Also, 33 is calling less than 22 when IP has slightly more 3x in the bluffing range - this further indicates that the effect Uri is talking about is probably the main driver behind this trend. I looked up A67fd on Wizzard and here 33 with a club still mixes in calls against 50% despite IP having 45s and thus completing straights when 33 hit a set (it has to be said that on this board the low pocket pairs calls more even 44 mixes in calls so obviously there is a slightly different dynamic going on but I think A67fd is still useful for this argument). Considering all this, I don't think the effect you describe is the main driver, but cool observation regardless - and the logic definitely works when considering why a pocket pair with a club prefers to call over a non-club as now when you hit a set the flush doesn't complete - but this is obviously different because flushdraws are a much bigger part of IP Cbet range than 65s specifically! Also, in reality, everything is so marginal it's obviously not like you're punting meaningful EV if you call 44 with a club and fold 22 with a club.
Is it possible the donk bet is a leveling thing too, like changing up how he plays in spots like this in the future too to make his play more ambiguous. Or is that reading into it too much...
That would imply that he is trying to set up a dynamic where now Nacho is going be incentivized to fold more to this line since he will be scared of the PSB donk containing nuts which opens up Makeboi including bluffs in that line. But that's an iffy motivation unless Makeboi wants to start bluffing, on that structure, weak draws that are just air OTR. And there is just not much of it at all by the river as is, to warrant him making a huge adjustment to account for that tiny portion of the range. I would think a more likely reasoning for the line by Makeboi is simply that he calculated that this would be the best way to get value: deduced that Nacho is not going to value bet thinly enough on that river to get in a XR for value but that he is going to over-bluffcatch vs a pot sized donk and Makeboi just gets more value that way compared to checking. So in a sense you're right, he is sort of making his play more ambiguous but he's not doing so just to be "tricky" or for ambiguity's sake itself; he's trying to get max value against a tough opponent. And sometimes that means taking a "weird" line since the more standard lines will be less effective.
how likely do you think it is that makeboifin will go full exploit in a spot like this and either thinks nacho will overcall or overfold vs the the big donk and shift his range accordingly
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I remember hearing you using martial art analogies to describe poker strategy, and it occurs to me that bet sizing has a close analogy to different types of punches/kicks. A small bet is like a jab, some capacity for damage but also useful for gauging distance and not over committing, at the same time it might be used against weak opposition because a bigger strike means wasted energy. An overbet is like a haymaker, very powerful, but exposes one to being countered. This is also why we use it only when we have a nut advantage!
Perhaps Mexican thought he was range splitting turn for some reason and putting flush draws too much in overbet?
I agree with this being likely. If he thinks the smaller size is exploitably thin value heavy and that most of the bluffs are going into the big size, then it means Nacho would have a lot of one-pair hands OTR. Against a range that’s usually Ax and doesn’t have many bluffs, then donking becomes very profitable.
@@shaiguelman3468Very true! 👍 - On the flipside, however, the donk strongly reeks Value; so that Nacho could consider to overfold his already condensed range: 78s is in the sim already close to indifferent, e.g.
I would think the reason 4s would fold mainly vs 2s on the flop has to do with the 4 on the turn leading to the possibility of getting set vs straight, whereas with 2s your set outs are cleaner
Yep I agree. You wanna make your turned set when no draws complete. Thus making 22>44/55 etc.
I don't think the blocking bluffs aspect matters much in this scenario cos you still have two streets to come- so it's very unlikely 22/44 can call and reach showdown very easily. They are more likely just combos that we call so that we have bluffs on high EV turn/rivers for OOP. Like on the 9c/8c etc.
However, if we were on the river and had 22 or 44, then it would likely be much better to hero call 22 for the reasons that Uri outlined- we unblock all the 4x potential bluff combos.
i usually dont check the names here but the comment was so good that after the 3rd sentence i was sure it's you, haha
@@gergelyrona3503 Hahahah. Gotta grind the RUclips comment section once in a while to keep myself honest :D
Appreciate your content! Does the solver calling 22 rather than 44 on the flop also have something to do with 44 hitting another 4 might lose to 65s?
maybe part of the reason yes, 65s is only 4 combinations and it's even mixing in checks tho, so I'd imagine the unblocking properties of 22 is the primary reason. Also, 33 is calling less than 22 when IP has slightly more 3x in the bluffing range - this further indicates that the effect Uri is talking about is probably the main driver behind this trend. I looked up A67fd on Wizzard and here 33 with a club still mixes in calls against 50% despite IP having 45s and thus completing straights when 33 hit a set (it has to be said that on this board the low pocket pairs calls more even 44 mixes in calls so obviously there is a slightly different dynamic going on but I think A67fd is still useful for this argument). Considering all this, I don't think the effect you describe is the main driver, but cool observation regardless - and the logic definitely works when considering why a pocket pair with a club prefers to call over a non-club as now when you hit a set the flush doesn't complete - but this is obviously different because flushdraws are a much bigger part of IP Cbet range than 65s specifically!
Also, in reality, everything is so marginal it's obviously not like you're punting meaningful EV if you call 44 with a club and fold 22 with a club.
Brilliant as always. Really appreciate the videos Uri 😎👍🏻
Your analysis is unbelievable and I really enjoy watching and and learning. Many thanks
Mexican = MBF iirc
Another great video
In your sim OOP player got a MUCH stronger calling range that usual sims.
I would expect BB to 3b BTN around 14% of the time. Why is that ?
yea mexican222 is makeboi
evidence of this?
@@coreyhuggins5785 2p2 high stakes thread
It’s
Is it possible the donk bet is a leveling thing too, like changing up how he plays in spots like this in the future too to make his play more ambiguous. Or is that reading into it too much...
That would imply that he is trying to set up a dynamic where now Nacho is going be incentivized to fold more to this line since he will be scared of the PSB donk containing nuts which opens up Makeboi including bluffs in that line. But that's an iffy motivation unless Makeboi wants to start bluffing, on that structure, weak draws that are just air OTR. And there is just not much of it at all by the river as is, to warrant him making a huge adjustment to account for that tiny portion of the range.
I would think a more likely reasoning for the line by Makeboi is simply that he calculated that this would be the best way to get value: deduced that Nacho is not going to value bet thinly enough on that river to get in a XR for value but that he is going to over-bluffcatch vs a pot sized donk and Makeboi just gets more value that way compared to checking.
So in a sense you're right, he is sort of making his play more ambiguous but he's not doing so just to be "tricky" or for ambiguity's sake itself; he's trying to get max value against a tough opponent. And sometimes that means taking a "weird" line since the more standard lines will be less effective.
Thank you for the reply, super clear explaination @@moebius1714
how likely do you think it is that makeboifin will go full exploit in a spot like this and either thinks nacho will overcall or overfold vs the the big donk and shift his range accordingly
about tree fiddy
He is Spanish btw
Greek
Love your videos… would be easier to follow if you used their stars name (please)
Gorilla Poker!!!