Unlocking the Secrets of Valuation in This Masterclass w/ Aswath Damodaran (TIP577)
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- Опубликовано: 16 июн 2024
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Clay is joined by Aswath Damodaran who is widely referred to as the dean of valuation.
Aswath Damodaran is a professor at NYU of corporate finance and valuation and has taught thousands of students how to value companies and pick stocks. He has written numerous books on valuation and has also made all of his university courses available online for free. Aswath is one of the clearest teachers of finance and investing in the industry.
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IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
0:00:00 - Intro
0:00:50 - Whether recent technological advances should lead us to think about investing differently than in years past.
0:02:44 - The role intangible assets play into valuation.
0:06:37 - How he determines which companies he wants to dive in and research.
0:15:14 - How Aswath thinks about setting an appropriate discount rate in valuation.
0:17:30 - His thoughts on whether investors should deem the US treasury rate as the risk free rate available to investors.
0:21:14 - The future expected return of the S&P 500 implied by the market as of August 2023.
0:25:15 - How Aswath thinks about the risks of investing in China.
0:28:50 - Aswath’s updated views on the valuation of Nvidia & Meta.
0:39:49 - The potential dangers of a buy and hold approach.
0:43:52 - How to think about using adjusted EBITDA in stock analysis.
0:46:18 - How Aswath thinks of the macro.
0:55:47 - Why Aswath recommends a strong understanding of statistics to invest well.
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Here's a man who meditates on his and others' thought processes. He is obviously very clear and wise in his approach and accountable for himself and to himself.
Aswath is a generous giver (of knowledge) and rationale person. He is like Buffet and Munger in those attributes yet different in investing views.
Sir Aswath you make india proud...Thank you so much for teaching us even though we're still trying to understand all these confusing terms.
Glad you enjoyed the episode!
Another great interview Clay. This guy is at the top of the class when it comes to investing. Great questions and answers as well. Appreciate Aswath's honesty and transparency when it comes to answering the questions. Thanks.
Glad you enjoyed it!
I must listen to Aswath’s public speech, interview and class like this
Thank you! Aswath is amazing!
Our pleasure!
Problem us retail have is that we have no patience.
Great thought of wisdom... ❤
Love Aswath Damodaran, honest no BS approach 🙌 🙌
Glad you enjoyed the video!
Listening again and have more thoughts. Still in the first few minutes.
While I agree that every generation naturally feels at the avant garde, market multiples and valuation metrics have changed drastically. Intangible assets have been a big factor in that change.
So I do think that it is a little different. A 20PE looks more like a 10PE for asset-lite companies.
Choose a growth stock. Watch it go through an up and down cycle… it’s trading range of price is key. Then understand how that company is effected by the current market.
Loved it. Thanks Clay and Prof. Aswath!!! Very informative and thought provoking.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Any recommendations on books related to statistics Aswath talks about towards the end?
Seems like a great man.
A gem 💎 of an interview. Thanks!
Thank you so much for watching!
Higher likelihood of getting through the whole episode if you guys add time stamps/divisions.
This is a fantastic interview.
Had to add that Aswath understands the basics of market psychology. It’s somewhat different than how I see the market but I see some of the advantages now.
Glad you found it valuable!
as usual he is brilliant .... amazing interview
Thank you so much!
thanks for another wonderful video 🙌
Our pleasure!
Ashwath is hella smart
The greatest academic since Graham
Grateful for your comment, Brian!🙏
So true
❤
Amazing interview👏👏👏
Thank you so much!
Um, in the very abstract two-period model, p = E[e*u_1'/u_0']; therefore, depending on the utility function, the distribution of income in future states can influence the stochastic discount factor. In other words, it is the volatility (or other moments) of equities that theoretically creates the risk premium. So, if volatility increases while the expected return remains the same, the discount factor should increase and the price decrease. So I don't understand his point! Of course the discount rate should increase with uncertainty.
Great interview
So happy to hear that!
Amazing talk
Glad to hear that! ♥
Dr. Damodaran, What is your opinion of the value of investing in Disney? And what is your opinion of Netflix? Do you consider Netflix to be overvalued or undervalued or worthy of investing consideration?
As my opinion is worth, disney has a problem in my opinion for example, Mickey and Minnie are now 50 years old, so the rigths of this cartoons are now free, everyone can use them ... thats a big thing.
For netflix i think at the moment is a little overvalued but with i think a big upside in the next 5 years (40%), if recession comes people will be more at home and may consider that to a cinema ticket or something
meta was easeast profit ever took the bottom and sell in 9 months with 200%+
I wonder how much Tesla he bought at 180?
nothing against clay but he's clearly not well versed enough to conduct this interview. Which is fine, most people aren't. We're not getting anything we haven't been able to get from other interviews AD has done. It would be nice for this famous podcast to really take a route that other pods haven't taken. Good job interviewing a legend nonetheless!
It’s quite clear that there’s a huge mismatch in knowledge between the interviewer and guest, but that’s not surprising given how sharp and experienced the professor is
I don’t think this guy has ever said anything stupid or self serving which is rare .
Thank you so much for watching!
If hes so good at valuing stocks, why hes not a billionaire.
How does aswath not mention that Alibaba is an ADR with a VIE structure which essentially means you own nothing. You are not a shareholder of alibaba and don't have rights to the profits therefore the value is 0. No DCF needed since you aren't entitled to any future cashflows or claim of a stake to the company. Disappointing.
Circa 54:00 Aswath is dead wrong. If you read Terry Smith’s most recent book (INVESTING FOR GROWTH), he shows how many of the highest quality companies could have been bought for MORE THAN 4x THE PREVAILING MARKET MULTIPLE and you still would have broken even.
This is where Aswath has somehow not been able to evolve in the way that Buffett investing disciples have. They understand that buying a high quality company at 25x is VASTLY better than a bad company at 8x.
Furthermore, Smith points out the inherent dangers of investing in a bad company. While you’re waiting for the mean to revert, the company is destroying value. So if it takes five years for the mean to revert, the company may have already devolved down to the point where fair value is at or even beneath where you bought.
This is incredibly important because this is just wrong wrong wrong.
I think Aswath will agree with you. You're using a pricing multiple to make a point for a guy who buys companies based on a valuation methodology. E.g., the last valuation he did on Telsa, it had a high multiple for those who uses multiples. Same can be said about his value for Nvidia.
Also, your point about destroying value is part of his valuation model (i.e., the ROIC). It might be best to first understand how he value companies, and what his story is about those companies. Stories are what essentially drives his valuations.
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