The Breakdown: (Nearly) $1m Dollar BLUFF. Insane or Brilliant?
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- Опубликовано: 28 сен 2024
- Paul Phua and Elton Tsang are playing for a lot of money. A LOT OF MONEY! And Tsang ends up with queen high on the river, but he doesn't want to give up. Is he off his rocker or above the rim?
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Jason Koon from 4:15-4:32 is a fantastic reaction shot.
In the old days, you guys might’ve discussed whether or not there were any physical tells on the river. The water bottle thing seems to draw a brief moment of attention from Phua. Idk if it mattered ultimately, but I don’t think you guys have mentioned any live tells recently.
i thought the same thing! Tsang looks completely shook reaching for that water bottle, as if he's desperately trying to find something to occupy his hands as he bluffs
Young looking dude check-raise bluffs river for $700k. More money that I have earned, spent, borrowed, loaned, saved, invested, won and lost in my entire life. Combined.
Hmmm does elton ever take this line with a king, checking to induce a bluff and then put in the raise for a free roll to try and get him to fold a chop?
John Malvasio unlikely, run into better hands more than you fold out chops
Charley Kirton what better hands?? phua is pretty much capped at a king here just as the poker guys say his range is narrowed down tonalmost exactly a king, he never has AA and 10’s very unlikey given he didn’t raise at any point and what hands can he have with a 2? However elton can definitely have AA and 10’s and KK and possibly A2 suited.
I think Phua can definitely have 10s here. Sure, he'll 3-bet those pre at least sometimes, but it's not unreasonable to flat vs an UTG open - they're super deep, and he's in position. Then why not just call flop and turn? Give Sang all of the chances to keep bluffing with his bluffs, and being in position Phua can always make sure at least 1 bet goes in on the river.
I think Elton is crazy enough to check raise the river with a King too because he knows that Paul most of the times can't have a better hand when he bets that size on the river. He almost always has a King. So, Paul's call may have been because of that too. As usual huge fan of your videos from India but I think you guys should have addressed this in the video. I'd like to have heard what did you guys think about it.
Paul's river bet has to be made with the intention to call all-in, otherwise he should have checked. I fully agree with your assessment of the bluff. Cool idea, wrong player. I like his size, it looks like a 'I hope you call' value raise. A push would have been too strong.
I don't like Elton's line on the river. Specifically, I don't like the check part of the check-raise. On this board is it really likely that Paul would have called the previous two streets and then will lead the river without a value hand. I think not. So, by checking, we are allowing him to check back all of his marginal hands like middling pairs that made a weak full house and bet the top of his range. He would never be there with the bottom of his pre-flop range because he called our three previous aggressive actions. I hate bluffing this river. But if you're going to bluff, a much better bluff line from Elton would have been a polarizing lead on the turn. Then his story would have been consistent: I had AA, KK, or TT before the flop and I have been ahead on every street. That would make Paul wonder if his dueces full of kings was any good and it is consistent with the "I've been betting for value on every street" story.
I came for the line but Grant forgot it, "Elton.....Elton, what are you doing"?
Yep,,,, I don't think either play was justifiable with regards to the opposing image, KJ vs Tsangs Range+style on the river was not ideal for value,, and Tsangs desperate attempt had little to chance of getting through phua's range+style a truly behemoth endeavor!!! we are discussing this?
Could Elton not make his “bluffs” purely other K x in this spot, cause it’s a pretty big win if we get them off a chop and Paul still has to sometimes call our AA+. If we are checking raising only Kx+ if we’re Elton then it makes betting the river probably a pretty big mistake by Paul as well. Reopening the action to have 0 EV when Elton VPIPs post action reopen…
this is pure upswing tilt
it's ambitious to try to get an opponent off a K there. It's delusional to try to get Paul off a K. Paul's value bet on the river is thin but OK. I don't know how often KK 10/10 or a 2 check raises the river. Plus the river bet gives Paul a chance to call a crazy check raise bluff.
I think your analysis of Phua's river bet is very off. If Phua ever calls twice with a hand like AQ, AJ QJ on earlier streets and wants to bluff with them, he simply has to bet a king on this river to be balanced. He basically never has a better hand than a king in this spot, I strongly believe Phua would raise pocket tens on the flop or turn. He gets called by AT or QQ or JJ way more often than he gets check-raised by pocket aces, kings or tens. If it were you in that spot would you really check back a king? You simply never bet for value if you're checking a king on that river.
If you watched the game you would know that Paul should absolutely be calling KJ in this game. People are super wide, especially the Asians in the game.
Racist
Insane bluff (really bad), but it might have worked if he hadn’t taken that sip of water. That really gave it away. If you want a call, you’re waiting with that water...
I think, they both misplayed the river. The KJ is just a check back, since it cannot bet and get called by worse often enough. So by betting, all Poul Phua is achieving, is to reopen the betting. And getting check-raised on the river is a shitty spot for Poul, because he is pretty capped at KX at best, and Elton Tsang can also have a lot of KX in his range.
Which allow Elton Tsang to check-raise with a range consisting of KX, AA and TT. Due to the price and the high frequenzy of split pots Poul Phua has to call it off. But he is never winning the whole pot, so Elton Tsang can essentially freeroll him.
As for Elton Tsangs play trying to get a billionaire to fold a full house is fairly ambitious to say the least. There is even a theorem called Zeebos theorem stating, that “No player is capable of folding a full house on any betting round, regardless of the size of the bet.”
So really this should have gone check-check on the river. But having made the mistake of betting, luckily for Paul Phua his mistake induced Elton Tsang to make an even bigger mistake, and Paul Phua made the right decision in the end to call it off.
fundiver198 I like a bet on the river with KJ here vs an imaginative aggressive opponent. The only difference is i snap call.
FIRST!!!!! i am the first
he's a bit of a "wild card"? lol. doesn't sound complimentary. poker is about unpredictability, changing gears, advertising, throwing ppl off guard, etc. elton is one of the best poker players who built his roll from the bottom all the way to the nosebleed level. i wouldnt use the phrase wild card.
Elton's story makes sense here. Pocket 10s, pocket Kings, or pocket Aces could definitely play it this way. And it makes sense for Paul to have a king here, and to bet for value, and to not beat any value that Elton is check raising. It means that Paul has to put Elton on a bluff in order to call.
Paul has a lot of kings that might bet the river for value, and almost nothing else. You guys were right to notice that Paul is kind of capped at having just a king. So he is either bluffing, or he's betting a King. Paul probably doesn't have a hand better than a king. And as you guys noticed, betting a King is pretty iffy. So that makes Paul very bluff heavy.
Elton recognizes that Paul is bluff heavy in this situation, which means it makes sense for him to raise here as a bluff to fold out Paul's bluffs. Paul is at the bottom of his value range, but he has to make the call because he's so bluff heavy here, and this time he actually has very thin value. And because the price was so good.
I think Elton's bluff was too small. He gave too good of a price. If he bets a bit bigger, Paul might convince himself that he should call with pocket 10s, pocket kings, or pocket aces, and to fold just a king. Without properly recognizing how unlikely it is for him to have those hands. I think it's good for Elton to have bluffs in his range here. But he's got to bet bigger.
To be fair: Paul only has 650M behind when Elton makes the raise, so even if Elton shoves here the fold equity isn't gonna be much bigger. So the bluff is just a bit too ambitious. Especially against Paul Phua.
Elton chicken player😂
Tsang is not a billionaire lol
Awful bet from Phua on the river, and I haven't seen the ending yet. Card removal and board dynamics dictate a check here I think, what's calling you that you beat? If you bet it should be tiny, and only with the intent of calling down a normal sized bet or maybe bet folding to an overbet, but that's pretty bad too. Check.
Phua's river bet also balances so that Tsang has to call for the chop. Otherwise, we know that when Phuo bets, he always has a king beat.
Granted, you could argue that his bet sizing should be bigger in that scenario, since Tsang is unlikely to fold a king to anything less than a massive bet in practice.
It is a bad exploitative play by Elton for sure... Even if Elton has a hand (AA, KK, TT or 2x)... It is always a call for Paul even he loses...
I don't mind betting the river but 220k is a big sizing mistake, to get value he should be betting smaller. Check-raising is indeed very sweet but not against someone who doesn't fold a King
5:28 - 5:30 - Elton seems to be shaky there with taking bottle of water haha
Good GTO bad exploitive
Also, I am a new subscriber and I really enjoy you guys' hand breakdowns. Thank you.
Thanks! Welcome to the channel.
Wow
I think part of it is that should Elton have AA, TT, A2s, he should be scared of Phua checking back a K because it is so hard to get called by worse with a K that he would bet himself and not go for a check-raise.... So Paul's bet almost works as an induce, because as Elton cannot expect him to bet the river his check-raises do not have much value. (By the way if you are Elton it would be cool to checkraise a K here to get Paul's bluffs to bet and try to fold out chops). This is a kind of fictional GTO vacuum because in reality Paul probably always bets a K and Elton knows it, but it is interesting to think about it in this way.
Yeah, he'd most likely bet big ( or even shove ) on the river with AA/KK/TT to try and get max value from any K. That's also a problem with this line as a bluff.
That’s exactly what i was thinking, the check can induce his bluffs to bet and phua will almost certainly always bet a king and almost never has a better hand so eleton can exploitively make a check raise here with a king to get value from bluffs and have the possibility that phua folds a chop.
Elton Tsang is a poker pro and made his money from poker, rich but definitely not a billionaire
Out of all the poker pros out there, Tsang is probably the richest out there.
Phua is basically a big fish
George Lyle this
are you serious about checking river with KJ? LOLUL
Ivan Wong what are you getting called by that you beat?
@@Stockhandle123 you may induce a bluff? it doesn't really matter, you have practically the nuts
Ivan Wong it would have to be a certain type of opponent to think you might induce a bluff. You don’t have anywhere close to the nuts. AA, TT, A2s, KK all beat you and could play it this way. What you have here is actually the very bottom of your value range on the river.