We've Been Lied To, CPLie Doesn't Add Up When it Comes to Housing!
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- Опубликовано: 27 авг 2024
- I go for a walk with my dog and walk through neighbourhoods from the 70's, 80's, 90's, 2000's, 2010s, and of course today. Prices should be way lower than they are. Enjoy the tour.
John has to be a good guy. For a dog to live that long it takes a tone of love and commitment. He has gone blind and deaf but still looks very happy. Well done bud!
Had an 18.5yr old Sheppard/border collie. Definitely if taken care of, dogs can live long happy lives.
Personally big thing is looks like Jon's dog never gained much weight. I think that's a big key that I see especially with medium to larger breeds.
How on earth would a person know if their dog was the oldest in the world??
@@digger9970Well there's a Guinness book of records and given the breed and age, definitely in the top end of that bell curve stat.
Jon is sniffing glue again on the construction sio
Thank you for keeping us informed on so many levels. I feel like the more I learn about our country low income people my anger grows, Thanks Arleth, Imagine investing $1000 and receiving $5,450 in 3days.🇺🇸
Low income people are suffering to survive, I appreciate her she's a great personality in the state, Imagine receiving $13,670 in few days.
She changed my life for good, I'm also a beneficiary.
HOW DO I GET ON THIS ???🙏🏻
SHE'S MOSTLY ON TELEGRAMS APPS
WITH THE BELOW NAME
She's the best honestly I'm also a beneficiary. This inflation has taught people the importance of multiples income investment helps alots..
Admire your dedication to your pup. May he live beyond all expectations.
Your doggy is adorable and definitely doesn't look 17. Thanks for sharing your sweetie!
Speculation did this to house prices, average people just want to buy house and live , at this point only major housing crash can fix this problem
That's not entirely true. Houses now are better than houses built in the 80's and 90's. You can't get away with the lack of insulation, lack of fireproofing, lack of efficient heating.
Building a 1400sqft house will cost you 350k, without appliances, driveway, landscaping, permitting, utility hookups, and the lot.
And contrary to popular belief, it's only the lot that appreciates. The building is a depreciating asset. It needs constant maintenance and even then, it will fall apart at one point.
Nope, low interest rates did this.
if speculation / pure demand is the only cause of the issue, then we should expect home builders to have record high profit margins. However, this is not the case. Construction builders in Canada has on average 13% profit margin. Compare this profit margin to the 10% profit margin of home hardware stores like home depot that are more of a volume play and do not take on risks of failed construction projects, real estate construction is hardly an attractive business venture at all. I would think that the cost of homes in Canada is going up due to rising costs and risks of building new homes.
To get a permit, you need to pay liquid waste planning fees, municipalities fees, etc that easily go upwards of 90k per unit in more expensive cities (yes you heard it right...per unit of housing). A large chunk of savings that you get from high density housing is erased by these per unit fees. These fees are part of city budget plans for 5 year across various entities and sometimes longer, and probably will only increase over time.
If you are building apartments in a more populous neighborhood, you have to compete with other builders for development projects. You may think competition would lead to lower prices...but remember you are not presenting proposal to the consumer, you are presenting plans to the city. So the criteria that you compete on can actually add cost...like how beautiful the design looks / how unique it adds to the city skyline.
@@lajthabalazs Would gladly take a 30 year old house vs a brand new build. Material quality and general craftsmanship are way down nowadays...
@@fycfyc1 I've seen a couple of new constructions, and it seems quality varies widely. And it's been the same for the past 200 years. Some people put in the materials, others try to make a quick buck by putting together something house shaped.
Awww 17 years old and still walking. Good job for being a great owner.
My Shiba Inu is 15 and is still in great shape. Glad to see yours is still healthy and happy! As for housing prices it all could have been predicted - low interest rates, high immigration levels bringing in a disproportionate number of high value individuals who end up investing in real estate (+ pumping so money into the market that your average mom and dad in major cities became millionaires), local investors following the gravy train, organized crime laundering money in real estate and it goes on ... There has been next to nothing done to address the fundamentals and stop a necessity like shelter being used as a commodity. This is not just about the recent actions of the Liberal Government, these policies have been in place since the late 1990s.
My wife and I bought the house we currently live in in 1993. Today we couldn't do that. We wouldn't qualify for the mortgage. What does that tell you?
we have lost out to crooks as all levels of government turned a blind eye to laundered money and allowing residential homes to be turned into a commodity.They have screwed a whole generation of kids to become renters.. THANKS ALL GOVERNMENTS FOR THIS.
Hilarious because parents-in-law are oblivious to this telling my wife and I that they made it work on mostly one salary and mom stayed at home with the kids.
Bought their home in 1991 new and just didn't go on big vacations to save. 😂
@@mr2_mike Share this video with them. Maybe they believe the government.
it is insanity today that a 1000sqf bungalows are selling for 900k-1mil+ in GTA. They are 40+ years old, require complete renovation, and you are still living in a tiny 1000sqf house, oh yeah, and no garage or anything like that.
todays houses are about DOUBLE with prices, where they should be. Just wonder who keeps this market alive and who is still buying these 1+mil homes.
oh yeah, house "investors" that will rent them out to 10 indians at $1000/head
a box for 700K in Vancouver
why do you think so many from India are coming here
@@johnnycroat Because Liberals want to change Canada's demographics.
I noticed that newer homes are shity smaller lots, in the second land mass country in the world
yes dude. finally using adjusted numbers. well done.
Adjusted for the exception of the population number.
I mean to be hyperbolic here... What if Canada was the only land mass left to build a home? What would the market demand? I think you know why we are in poo.
@@fillmorehillmore8239 not understanding this comment.
@@matthewjames1172 Its a demand issue.
This is a really great chart to have (even those of us not in ON). I hope you will consider sharing this kind of info with the Federal Housing Advocate.
wounder how many federal officials are landlords ,bet there are LOTS...
You could buy a can of tomato soup in 1975 for 33 cents. Now you pay 1.99. That's the same rate of change as what the BoC says a 1970's house of 45,000 should cost todsy - 240,000.
Kewl four-legged Mascotte.....another great show❤
good dog cameo and good video
Jon , Great to see your veteran Shiba. What a great dog. Many Thanks for the great content.
Best video ever that opens with a dog. My eksie is half way through 14❤ and also healthy.
Dayum, your doge is doing well for 17.
Thanks for sharing Sir…stay blessed!
thanks Jon, this is by far the best real estate channel explaining real estate market in Canada. thanks for your time.
I appreciate that!
If priced in Gold home prices peaked in 2005 and have fallen by about 30% over the past 2 decades. Similarly rents have declined by about 40% when priced in Gold. This shows you that the real inflation is way higher than the official numbers. On average inflation is at 9% per year over the past 20 years. That is why the standard of living is going down. The minimum wage from 20 years ago is equal to $90000 a year today in terms of purchasing power
Gold is not a commodity referenced in the CPI index. Do governments lie so people won't riot, when/if they know the truth? Sure. Found an old receipt from Costco for goods id bought in 2018. Many items went up 30-50%. If you divide that over 6 years, that's 13% averaged out annual increase. A far cry from the 2-3% consecutive governments have been claiming. In Real estate is way higher...😢
In CAD $ Gold has risen 491% or $2,678 an ounce in 20 years. Also get out of Canadian dollars because it's going to go to 50 cents US by this time next year. Buy USD and gold (and maybe some BTC).
The minimum wage from 20 years ago is equal to $90000 a year today in terms of purchasing power.
Where do you get this from? Curious and not judgmental.
@@fillmorehillmore8239
Minimum wage was $7.15 per hour exactly 20 years ago in Ontario. A minimum wage worker who worked full time made $13000 per year. In the year 2004 that $13000 was equal to 25 ounces of gold back then. Today 25 ounces of gold is equal to $80000. So I was off by 10000 but you get my point. That is why 20 years ago life seemed easier and the standard of living was higher.
@@m.b5777 Agreed. I dont think you mentioned "when priced in gold" before the edit.
It is hilarious that today the homes are twice as large but on 30' lots! LOLLL!!!!
What a beautiful pup 🐶 may he live for many more years
These outdoor neighbourhood videos are great, such a nice change. Keep up the good work!
your puppy is beautiful !!!
Another impressive video with impressive comparison and analysis, and more impressive personal touch (❤your dog❤)
Come to BC! The lies are still being spun.
$2.63 (out the door) for a doz beer in Vancouver in 1970 and a typical Kits house went for $35K. The good ol dayz.
@@sscbkr48 we had it so good. Living life rather than worrying about money and stuff and politics…all the time.
Watch CHCH news tonight.They had a story about the federal housing policy. In this article they mentioned lease lot homes. Could you please do a post about the pros and cons of such a purchase?
Love shibas! Beautiful dog.
Your awesome. Now your epic 🐶
The BoC inflation calculator uses the flawed inflation figures. I'd say these house prices reflect actual inflation.
Yes, anyone who was an adult in the late 1970's - early 80's, knows that inflation was around 10%. My husband and I could afford a new car, camping and Canada Wonderland type vacations, own a house and buy groceries. Our combined income was $33,000 in 1882 and our sm single home cost $61,900. That is why I know that thus present CPI is totally inaccurate today when people are losing their homes and are struggling to buy food.
Great point. We are running about 12% inflation today if they include food and shelter
so did my calculation I need 200K income to raise a family here, seems to be a low ball. If I do a adjusted expendable income might need close to 300k before tax, to have a middle class life style with 4 kids
you can't have a middle class live with 300k, trust me
not in a city anyhow
Nice doggie!
Oh love your beautiful dog and his name! Of course we are being lied to about everything. can't believe anything the government or their news media says.
True, but unfortunately dumb minded or rather brainwashed Zombies still believe that your vote counts on election day????
Good information Mr. Flynn. Thank you.
Hey Jon, becoming a big fan of yours... this video is great. I guess I don't understand how you're reconciling this video with further price drops. If we are acknowledging inflation has been even beyond what is reported. Then it can't be expected for prices to fall and align with CPI. Because, as you've established, CPI is bonk. Therefore I'm in the opinion that housing prices are moreso a side-effect of the inflation. And, a useful way to measure real inflation. If we control for inflation on price charts, this becomes somewhat clear. And even more clear if we use gold as unit of account
Hey Jon, cpi can actually be irrelevant in understanding the increase in house prices. While some of the costs to build a house are included in cpi, there's many things that are not. Permits, land price, demand from investors and regular buyers are not accounted for in cpi, therefore, these factors contributed to significant house price increase, but were not captured by cpi. It is like comparing the amount of rain received by a garden in estimating how many flowers grow there, but not looking at the fertilizing, additional watering, perhaps amount of sunlight.
That's exactly what he's getting at... prices now include a huge premium for speculation on appreciation. You do not buy just to live anymore, it's all about the "investment".
Awww what a sweet pooch
That’s why people buy houses to keep dogs and houses will go up and up. In most big cities in the world people live in condos in Canada own houses
2000 1 bedroom in Canada for an apt... is greed. People are asking 2100 for their own basement. Greed.
1 million dollars for a townhouse in Canada in Ontario. Christ, I can't get a raise. Still making the same wage 10 years ago. No company wants to give out raises.
Who qualifies for a million dollar home?
I have to keep up with the Jones now. Why?
Great background as always Jon!
Just depressing. A 700 square foot condo with parking in Toronto is now about 700k. That mortgage plus property taxes and condo fees makes it unobtainable for many.
probably a good thing..stay away condo fees skyrocket when they get older too
Let’s see now with 30/40% of our MPs owning rental property you would think they would have our backs, nope, more worried about their pockets, including the golden boy who was a mere collection agent before he became a landlord.
32’ lots. What a joke!
John how about a video like this bit out lining the development charges then and now and how that has changed. just curious. Labour materials costs more for sure.Also curious to know if margins have gone up or down for the profit of builders. who truly is making the money on these homes
Your 4 legged pal is still in the zone, the adventure continues!
Totally agree with the 2-3x over. A house on Vancouver's west side cost 90K in 78.. rates were 10%. By 08 it was 4M with rates in the basement, mind you, it's a global city. Probably wouldn't be worth more than 1.5M in a sane world.
Wow 200,000 sounds alot more realistic.... every detatched house now is marked up by at least 200% from what theyre worth
If people are buying, is it marked up?
@@apprenticephil649 people are dumb that are buying.....its a terrible terrible time to buy.... i hope they all lose money for their actions
Never talked about is the loss of the basic family unit.
The divorce rate is 60% and that is similar for couples who were not officially married.
What this leads to is both parties now need housing, and that housing must be big enough to hold kids at each house.
If family units stayed together, its frees up literally thousands and thousands of homes.
Builders are complaining that the cost of materials is driving up the price of homes however the same home in Toronto vs Saskatoon has a dramatically different price. What is driving the difference - land costs, location or is it really materials?
Housing is wayy out of step with any measurement.
Are the bank's assessors actually assessing these properties at this price for the mortgage values or is it people , speculators with a lot of cash down out bidding everyone?
Cute doge
Jon, what is your opinion on newer homes>? Do you tell your clients to avoid them due to a higher chance of poor build quality?
CPI for housing has been averaging 5.95% for housing vs the 2% target rate.
1978-79: $45,000. Today they would sell for $650,000
BoC inflation calculator: $202,000 (3.35% average CPI)
CPI at 2% would compound $45,000 to $111,000
CPI at 3.35% would compound $45,000 to $202,000
CPI at 5.95% would compound $45,000 to $650,000
Nice neighbourhood...personally I would never touch a home built in the 70s...simply too old. Old pipes and old wiring...mid 80s at the oldest I would go
came for the charts and stayed for the pup :)
Because it matters.
Good one.
He looks in awesome shape for a 17 year old.
They may be "too high" but the prices are trending back up and not coming down, despite what Jon's claiming. In areas between Hamilton and London we've seen dozens of houses up for sale in the last month in the 450-550k range that are selling for 600-700k after bidding wars.
In the spring and they will go back down again in the summer
I’ve tracked some of those properties and they were listed (or sold) between 2021 and 2023 at 850 plus… so who really won?
@@jonflynn and when it doesn't go down in the Spring? Are you going to actually own up to being wrong? Or just punt things forward...saying the fall, then 2025, 2026, etc. You can't be wrong if you just keep extending this crash into the future right when it continues to not happen right? There is no accountability for the false assurances and predictions you broadcast for views.
So what is the point? You could take me through the increased value of cars, rents, and underwire, and end up with the same result. Though retired now, when I started practicing law in a large firm in Toronto, if you made more than 15,000.00 in the first year, including your bonus, you were starting out on easy street. I did. My wife started out as a secondary school teacher at a salary of $6,400. We immediately bought a house for $43,000, borrowed the deposit and down payment from our in-laws, and a 33,500 mortgage at 18.5%; and didn’t sleep right for at least a month. We had 4 kids, a cloth line and vegetable garden in the backyard; and, somehow, made it through, without divorcing.
Cool story, bro.
those numbers only make sense if canada remains relatively the same as it was in 1975, but just looking around outside...
No Canadian should ever look at the asset they own only in Canadian dollar valuations ...
This is because everything we buy is Benchmarked in US dollars.
Thus No matter what I own as an asset or an equity I always make sure I understand what I paid for it by converting the price into US dollars.
I have found overtime this is the most efficient way to determine if I'm losing or winning
It is almost impossible to find a worse country in the world than Canada, coming here is my biggest regret.
Muhahaha you are here so we can afford to live here, by living off your hard work. Ahahahaha
Where did you come from and when? Canada hasn’t always been this way, but it has always been pricy and Canadians never used to be so indulged.
Agree, I want my kids out. I will not let them get trapped here. Fuck the people here sat in housing they got for a reasonable price, laughing up their sleeve.
I got an EU member passport and am exploring LatAm residencies because it will be 20+ years if ever before any constructive changes take hold, if ever.
Gee, I don't know. I have a terrific life here. Pretty wonderful country for me.
It's really discouragingly insane.
Love your doggo
Nice work.
It's the land that has value, not the actual house. We bought a house in the 80's, for 40,000. Interest was 14 percent. That same house now would sell for 600-700,000. That's on Vancouver Island in bc. In Alberta we bought a nice house for half that.
Yeah, but you pay for the outside too. Half price in AB is expensive because you don't get the ocean or the mild climate.
When you look at gold vs the Canadian dollar vs the US Dollar 30,60, and 90 years ago, gold buys you the same for housing in the US in the past vs today but not in Canada. Not by far. Canada needs 30-50% decrease in home prices. A huge part is the cost the city and provinces but on buyers with permits and selling taxes and fees. Canada needs a new economy that is not based on RE. We are doomed if there is no major correction within the next 1-3 years.
Well, the prices will be coming down to 1980 level. Every century has inflation and deflation. After 80 years of inflation what do you think is next?
simple economics of supply and demand, not to mention speculators and foreign investors. Homes aren't for living in anymore they are investments. People are having to compete with a huge influx of immigrants and foreign investors parking money in Canadian Real estate.
Toronto Vancouver house prices ll go down %85
Thanks for the great info. Where you live again?
So in brief we are in a crash up since early 2000s . Less and less buying power for average people and more and more power for government.
It's only one thing.... pure greed. Rich, want more money... rich, rich
All markets eventually revert to the mean.
CPI has a weight of ~30% for shelter, not including furnishing or utilities. The other thing is that this is a Canada wide metric. Including rural houses, condos, and every region and municipality.
Your findings dont contradict the CPI: some items like housing can rise faster in price then the average inflation. And prices in some neighbourhoods might rise faster than the average price of housing.
1) Cost (particularly the buying power) of money does not equal value. 2) the CPI does not allow for changes in quality ie the shoes/ coat / eggs you buy today are not necessarily the same "quality of good" as was their predecessor. 3) Irreplaceability (they're not making any more of it) is a factor in appreciation of land value. 4) While 99.44% of your buyer-watchers would love your opinion on CPI value to be true ... 99.44% of your seller-watchers would not agree .... how can BOTH 99.44% groups be wrong?
Yes Jon, but you failed to mention the average Joe's income has also gone up by the same factor so it's a wash really... Oh... never mind... btw, your dog is one lucky senior, most of us won't be that lucky in our old age, hat's off to you sir👍.
NOW is the time to buy a house
Somehow you know Calgarys market as well.
Excellent example of the CP Lie. Maybe you can explain something, why the banks have no interest in land? If someone wishes to purchase raw land or an acreage unless the buyers are very solid financially they cannot finance. I think your video demonstrates that mentality. I'm a land person, 13 acres tied up in the BC ALR. Cannot be subdivided only agriculture. I would split it up into 1 acre lot & offer them @ 40k each.....not a chance in hell between the communist government & banks....must be a deeper plot. Were I live & look out the window I see raw undeveloped land. Then I hear we need hi density housing...WTF?
Do fonthill
Spot on Jon 2% inflation target, eh.
First to watch!
Clearly the solution to this housing crisis is to add 1.2 million new Canadians in the next 3 years....at least this is what the Federal Government is doing.
US inflation is stuck around 3.8% and US federal spending is fueling inflation. Interest rates aren’t coming down anytime soon.
the prices will never go down, otherwise the economy will collapse - the banks would become insolvent in an instant
mostly agree with you on many but here i think u are wrong, homes are not expensive, money becomes worthless this is the problem money devalued dramatically thanks to to gov
You’re correct, our money has devalued a lot more than they reported
On your cross country price change videos you never show Winnipeg or Manitoba. Is there a reason for that?
their data is always late and impartial.
do you have the link for the bank of canada pricing?
Question is can you rebuild 1974, 40000$ home in 2024 for 250000$ ? CPI is not a good measure for this context.
This is dumb. CPI is an aggregate basket. Real estate is a component. The share of real estate in the Canadian basket is effectively larger. The point is that Canadians are becoming poorer in terms of housing but not in terms of other goods and services
It still makes a point about real estate values today
Canada is very fany
So what's happened after 2014, Oh yes we have new prime minister
Ya right, had nothing to do with free trade killing thousands of good union manufacturing jobs, thank Conservatives, back in the 80s I paid a grand a week in income tax, now I don’t even clear near that.
We've also had multiple Conservative provincial governments. But they always get a free ride somehow.
Trusting bankers politicians realtors😢😢😢😢
Which city are you in?
If I gave you an address could you tell me roughly what the income somebody would need to get that house
Yep
@@jonflynn 208 King Edward Ave, London, Ontario.
I've had a hard time finding pricing for something like this. Houses around me been selling for 600k
Rich homeowners making $1,000K a day are wishing for that to go on forever. Poor renters like born to lose autistic me, are wishing for the market to collapse! Sure, I wish the price would collapse 4 fold, even 10 fold!
Like it.cp lie
Which city are these houses in?