the biggest issue ive seen is people know of the deck works but dont play it well. a lot of people try to jam a win as fast as possible instead of waiting for the best opportunity. i have around a decent winrate in my own data and i play her more patiently.
Hi Mons, Thinking about the statistics of win rates, I think we should be sceptical about an individual card having a large impact on the overal win rate. Even in a scenario "draw this card early/mid game, you won't win" there is just so much impact an individual card can have on the game. As an example, lets say we use 20 cards from the liberary, we have about 20% for an individual card to appear in your hand. In other words, at most (not realistic though) an individual card in this scenario can lower the overal win rate not more than 20%. In the case of stella lee this should be a maximum (again not realistic) of about 4% difference in overal win rate. More relevant might be; do 'better players' also select better/other cards? What does an inclusion of a card tell us about other cards included or play style? Things like 'selection bias' are really important to consider as well. Or else, I think there as is a risk people over value statistics. Btw, I really like your videos!
I really like this format: showing card inclusion rate along with its win rate. Another possibility is that even though a majority of decks use a given card, it may actually be not optimal, but theres no good way to see that because theres not enough data where its excluded. I really want to see a deep dive into Nadu's includes when theres enough data!
I have a top 4 and a top 16 on stella at two 120+ person events. I'm off the deck for now but I can confidently say that the deck is good people just don't play it correctly. It's basically a window theory deck. You try to shoot your shot at the most opportune time and present yourself as bot a threat at all other times. The deck heavily capitalized on the ability to point the finger at other threats that are actively doing things. Even a tymna looks like it's doing much more than stella. Meanwhile, if you're playing correctly, you're holding up a win the entire time.
Great video Mons, the stats seem to back up the correct Stella deckbuilding theory! Interesting interesting Can you do one of these videos for Tevesh Kraum up next? I saw some interesting stats on the mind sculptors podcast, and your analysis could really help understand those better
I don’t understand why Stella doesn’t play haste enablers like some of the haste lands or cards like need for speed. Was watching old narset videos and thought about stella Lee
But who actually plays the deck in that brew or way?, it's like casual builds are decreasing its average win rate Lion's eye diamond is used with underworld breach and brain freeze as a combo, even jeska's will
The common arguments against wheels; your opponents draw (collectively) more cards than you do (this one honestly just kinda brain dead… it’s a one v one way to think The other (stats show you only win 45% of games when you cast a wheel😂😂😂 They are good if not misused and better in some decks than others
This was a much more relevant argument 5-10 years ago when blue was the only *good* color at consistently gaining card advantage. These days well built decks have more cards than they know what to do with. Wheel stonks definitely went up significantly in the last 3-5 years
the biggest issue ive seen is people know of the deck works but dont play it well. a lot of people try to jam a win as fast as possible instead of waiting for the best opportunity. i have around a decent winrate in my own data and i play her more patiently.
This has been my experience as well. If I go for the throat I get stuffed, but if I bide my time I usually connect.
I'm in the same boat, instead of trying to jam in your win you must be alittle more patient and I've had better results that way
Do you agree with removing stuff like Storm kiln, Thassa, etc. in the deck to help winrate?
@@Papiness I’m only running thoracle. The idea behind cutting it is sound but I’ve found it being an easy wincon keeping it in my list
Hi Mons, Thinking about the statistics of win rates, I think we should be sceptical about an individual card having a large impact on the overal win rate. Even in a scenario "draw this card early/mid game, you won't win" there is just so much impact an individual card can have on the game. As an example, lets say we use 20 cards from the liberary, we have about 20% for an individual card to appear in your hand. In other words, at most (not realistic though) an individual card in this scenario can lower the overal win rate not more than 20%. In the case of stella lee this should be a maximum (again not realistic) of about 4% difference in overal win rate. More relevant might be; do 'better players' also select better/other cards? What does an inclusion of a card tell us about other cards included or play style? Things like 'selection bias' are really important to consider as well. Or else, I think there as is a risk people over value statistics. Btw, I really like your videos!
I really like this format: showing card inclusion rate along with its win rate. Another possibility is that even though a majority of decks use a given card, it may actually be not optimal, but theres no good way to see that because theres not enough data where its excluded. I really want to see a deep dive into Nadu's includes when theres enough data!
I have a top 4 and a top 16 on stella at two 120+ person events. I'm off the deck for now but I can confidently say that the deck is good people just don't play it correctly. It's basically a window theory deck. You try to shoot your shot at the most opportune time and present yourself as bot a threat at all other times. The deck heavily capitalized on the ability to point the finger at other threats that are actively doing things. Even a tymna looks like it's doing much more than stella. Meanwhile, if you're playing correctly, you're holding up a win the entire time.
Really useful video as I’m still playing her. Thanks.
tidal bore protects the win. must play
Great video Mons, the stats seem to back up the correct Stella deckbuilding theory! Interesting interesting
Can you do one of these videos for Tevesh Kraum up next? I saw some interesting stats on the mind sculptors podcast, and your analysis could really help understand those better
I don’t understand why Stella doesn’t play haste enablers like some of the haste lands or cards like need for speed. Was watching old narset videos and thought about stella Lee
I actully think Stella should play those lands aswell.
I wonder if eventually Stella Lee will stabilize at around the numbers Niv-Mizzet gets, feels that way but I honestly can't tell yet.
Can you make stat of Ob Nixilis Kingpin too., It's my pet deck, lot of fun to play
I think I have done that a few times. But I guess an update could be good.
Love the fucking stats videos! Keep it going
I believe cast into the fire would do more then abrade!
❤❤❤
Definitely expected better stats wow
8:18 gelectromancer on board, infinite damage
Stella been strong in my table with a good W/R, rest of the table does not understand how to handle SL
Tidal bore hater here
But who actually plays the deck in that brew or way?, it's like casual builds are decreasing its average win rate
Lion's eye diamond is used with underworld breach and brain freeze as a combo, even jeska's will
The common arguments against wheels; your opponents draw (collectively) more cards than you do (this one honestly just kinda brain dead… it’s a one v one way to think
The other (stats show you only win 45% of games when you cast a wheel😂😂😂
They are good if not misused and better in some decks than others
This was a much more relevant argument 5-10 years ago when blue was the only *good* color at consistently gaining card advantage. These days well built decks have more cards than they know what to do with. Wheel stonks definitely went up significantly in the last 3-5 years
Three opponents are drawing aswell. Not good