How The Housing Crash Will Happen
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- Опубликовано: 10 окт 2023
- In 2024, a potential housing crash could be triggered by a combination of overleveraged homeowners, speculative investments, tightening credit standards by financial institutions, and sudden interest rate hikes. The American Dream is being crushed by a global economic slowdown, buyer demand could decrease significantly. This may lead to plummeting property values and widespread foreclosures, with investor panic exacerbating the downturn. Government interventions might struggle to stabilize such a faltering market. In this video, we look at all these aspects so you can determine if now is the time to buy or sell your home.
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Asking a real estate agent whether you should buy a home right now is like to asking an alcoholic whether they think you should have a drink lol. Homes in my neighborhood that cost around $450k in sales in 2019 are now going for $800 to $950k. Every seller in my neighborhood is currently making a $350k profit. Simply unreal. In all honesty, deflation is what we require. The only other option is for many people to go bankrupt, which would also be bad for the economy. That is the only way to return to normal.
Home prices will come down eventually, but for now; its best to offset some of your real estate investments and get into the financial markets or gold. The new mortgage rates are crazy, add to that the recession and the fact that mortgage guidelines are getting more difficult. Home prices will need to fall by a minimum of 40% (more like 50%) before the market normalizes. If you are in cross roads or need sincere advise on the best moves to take now its best you seek an independent advisor who knows about the financial markets.
Personally, I can connect to that. When I began working with a fiduciary financial counsellor, my advantages were certain. In these circumstances, I would always advise getting professional help so they can steer you through choppy markets and just give you indicators and strategies for knowing when to enter and exit the market.
Mind if I ask you recommend this particular coach you use their service? I have trouble knowing when to buy or sell.
"Stacie Lynn Winson" is my portfolio-coach, I found her on Bloomberg where she was featured, I looked up her name on the internet. Fortunately I came across her site and reached out to her, you can verify her yourself.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website. Thank you for sharing.
Inflation hits people a lot harder than a crashing stock or housing market as it directly affects people's cost of living that people immediately feel the impact of. It's not surprising negative market sentiment is so high now. We really need help to survive in this Economy.
I think I could really use more guidance to navigate the market, it is completely overwhelming, I've liquidated most of my assets and I could really use some advice on what best to invest into.
Your best option if you are unfamiliar with the markets is to seek advice or help from a consultant or investing coach. I know it sounds simple or generic, but talking to a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and increase my portfolio to roughly 65% since January. For me, it's the best method to enter the market right now.
please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
Carol Vivian Constable is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The housing crash is so bad that I read about someone who had to rent half of her bed with someone just to afford rent. foresaw the housing crisis and sold my property. I then put it in the market. That was late February. I've lost more than 40% of my portfolio's value. It makes me really sad. How can I turn this situation around?
This is so sad. Investing requires a certain level of diligence, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy.
I agree. Having an investment advisor is the best way to go about the stock market right now. I’ve been in touch with a coach for a while now mostly and I made over 95% profit within a short time.
That's impressive! I could really use the expertise of your advisor. Could you recommend who you work with, please?
My advisor is *Sharon Louise Count.* You could easily find her online. She has a wealth of experience in the financial market gained over several years
Thank you for this. Any chance she manages couples' joint portfolio account?
I've been watching the housing market closely, Prices have been skyrocketing for years. It's going to be tough for first-time buyers to enter the market." how can one diversify $280k reserve .
I agree that rising interest rates are making it harder for consumers to afford homes in addition to rising costs. A strong FA can help you assemble your portfolio.
The housing market has always had its ups and downs, but it's true that this time feels different. Having a portfolio manager will save you a lot in the market , My portfolio currently has 200% increase last couple of months with the help of my advisor.
@@Nernst96 in times like these, it's crucial to be cautious and not rush into the market , Who is this your FA , my portfolio needs urgent attention , been a lot of lose.
I set up a call with her and am really grateful that I did. I copied and entered her name into my browser and it came up in the top search results. I've seen comments about advisers but not one who looks this amazing.
I gave up trying to buy a house. I fixed my credit and took out my retirement money for a down payment. All my bills are paid off. But the lenders kept finding something wrong with the houses I was wanting to buy. So, after three attempts at buying a house and another lending fiasco I decided to live on my Indian reservation in a small 20 X 18 cabin. I will retire here and live off grid. At least I have no Bills.
Congratulations on being debt free!
More importantly, peace of mind. As I get older, the adage "Less is Better" makes more sense every day.
You literally are in one of the best scenarios. Is your community self-sufficient? Only thing now is to make sure your prepped for bs. Tools, weapons food water etc etc. Go travel and enjoy not having crazy expenses shacklng you down.
I live in a 22x32 shed on acreage I own. Even with zero debt, it's tough to make ends meet with the cost of food, fuel, insurance, taxes
Wise. Any dip in the housing market will be very temporary. Homelessness and despair will spread like another pLandemic for the remainder of this sordid decade ahead. Cash buyers will be grabbing all the supply. Interest rates will dip briefly and then rocket over 10% and up, up, up and away.
I've come to realize that the key to amassing wealth lies in making sound investments. I purchased my first home at the age of 21 for $87,000 and sold it for $197,000. My second home, acquired for $170,000, was later sold for $320,000, and my third property, purchased at $300,000, fetched $589,000, with buyers covering all closing costs and expenses. Not reaching a million before retirement feels like an unfulfilled goal.
Whichever firm you select, make sure you get your insurance from a reputable financial adviser, such as *Jenny Pamogas Canaya,* who has dedicated her career to financial planning. Because they will assist you in escalating, navigating better, and completing the task in a safer manner..||
Bruh
@@everythingpony The spam is unreal
Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market
The stock market is no exception; maintaining profitability requires a deep understanding of the market. While I primarily adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, my portfolio has remained in the red for an extended period. Achieving substantial gains necessitates consistency and frequent portfolio adjustments.
In my opinion, it was much easier investing back in the 60s but it’s a lot trickier now, those making consistent profit in these times are professionals reason I’ve been using an advisor for the past 5 years to consistently build my portfolio in preparations for retirement.
@@emmaarmando My partner’s been considering going the same route, could you share more info please on the advisor that guides you.
My advisor is *Camille Alicia Garcia* . You can easily find her online. She has a wealth of experience in the financial market gained over several years. I personally gained over $270K during this market downturn, which highlighted that there's valuable insight the average individual may not be aware of.
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
Currently, in ny neighborhood in Dallas suburb, 4 homes for sale, 1 for rent and 3 more that have sat empty with no explanation
There doesn't seem to be a shortage of homes but a shortage of AFFORDABLE homes, we need a correction
Homes are already over expensive. They were in a bubble. I don't know where people are getting the money from to afford 400-500k homes.
500k is cheap for a house. My area crackhouses go for 2.1 million dollars.
@@brookemckay7349 No, that's just cheap for a house IN YOUR AREA. Blame yourself for living in such a bad location.
@mitchmcconnely it's been my home for all of my life. What DBAG THING TO SAY!
Equity
@@brookemckay7349 You were the one flexing about how $500,000 was a cheap home because in YOUR area homes are 2 million plus. Speaking of Dbags, your comment came off as snobby and maybe even trying to shame the original commenter for having such a plebeian view of housing costs. 🙄
THE SAD THING IS WE ALL KNOW THEY HAVE DOUBLED THE PRICE ON THESE HOUSES. THIS IS INSANE.
By 2025 will be triple and 10% interest rates. Only cash buyers. No supply.
No one thought there would be a crash in 2007
2008: hold my beer
Listening to your videos makes me appreciate the decisions we made to physically build our own home, while paying cash as we went. We would be in big doo doo if we didn't.
Gosh, any advice?
Buy land build your own … if you can ❤
What you did is very much a part of the housing market that anyone can do! You were in total control! It's people like you
that will always benefit in the housing market. CONGRATULATIONS!
Awesome, it's time to think outside the box! Do you have construction experience? How long did it take to build your home?
Lol.
250k for 9,000sqft lot…
I've been studying this for a while now. It's absolutely going to crash. Worse than 2008. There are a lot of jobs available, but very low income jobs. They can bare afford to rent let alone buy. The rents are beginning to drop, but the house prices are dropping big time in Eastern TN. From several thousand to one I saw dropped $50k. Yet the house is still unaffordable. Buckle up Buttercups, it's going down.... while the dollar goes up, it takes more $ to purchase a loaf of bread. It's worth nothing, thanks to the Fed.
Keep studying buddy lol. There’s not going to be a crash.
@@user-fc2zb9po8tgo buy a house and get another booster
@@user-fc2zb9po8t Clueless much?
Yep I lived thru 2008. I witnessed the speculators in the suburbs, driving up the prices month over month. At the time I knew nothing about the banking crisis but I knew just from the speculation & unaffordability that a crash was coming. It’s all common sense.
@@user-fc2zb9po8tMortgage payments are up 90% from 2 years ago, if you think that’s not a bubble then idk what to tell you
Astronomical increase in property taxes+homeowners insurance+utilities are driving some of us out of our homes. Senior citizens are the worst affected. We have worked all our lives, retired in our forever homes and now cannot afford these expenses. I don't want to, but might be forced to living in a tiny home which is NOT how I wanted to spend the last chapter of my life. Speculators+corrupt county assessors are creating false market valuations. It's a very difficult time.
My 2 cents. Americans are at their highest debt to income ratio and their highest credit card debt. You add in student loans coming due. Plus, it sounds like airbnbs are starting to get sold (increasing inventory). Now if unemployment goes to 6 or even 9% (increasing inventory) and inflation stays stubbornly high. I definitely see a huge housing downturn.
Also, where I am, in Kansas City. The ratio of median income to housing cost is normally 2.67 (historically). Right now it's closer to 3.7 (housing is way over valued).
My house is paid for...and I have no credit card debt or debt of any kind...not having kids was the best thing we ever did....oh and I've heard it all. Who will loolk after you when you are old, bla bla....sheesh...
Rates on 30-year mortgages subtracted 8 basis points Friday, lowering the average to 8.33%. On Monday and Tuesday, the flagship average had bolted more than a third of a percentage point higher to set a new 23-year high of 8.45%. Do I just keep waiting for a housing crash with my $2 million in liquid assets or shift my attention to the equity market?
Diversification is a smart strategy. It can help reduce risk. Consider spreading your investments across different asset classes like stocks, bonds, and maybe even real estate in other markets if the opportunity arises.It's a challenging time, but with the right strategies and expert advice, we can work toward bouncing back from this housing market crash.
Agreed, the role of advisors can only be overlooked, but not denied. I remember in early 2020, during covid-outbreak, my portfolio worth around $300k took a slight fall, apparently due to the pandemic crash, at once I consulted an advisor in order to avoid panic-selling. As of today, my account has yielded big fat yields, and leverages on 7-figure, only cos I delegate my excesses right.
How do I find this financial counselor ?
I take guidance from a California-based wealth advisor 'Nicole Desiree Simon' you're most likely going to find her basic info on the internet, she's firmly established and well qualified.
Thank you for this tip. it was easy to find your mentor. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her résumé
To summarize the entire video. No one knows for sure and the answer to all the questions is "only time will tell"
5 months later and no housing crash yet.
Many of the jobs that are listed are either part time jobs, or low paying full time that no one wants. This is why the available jobs have grown. If employers paid more, and executives paid themselves less, then those jobs would get filled. People currently working entry level jobs would move up to better paying jobs, and the entry level jobs would open up to those who are new to the workforce. Executives just need to take pay cuts and pay employees more. Instead, they want to keep their high salaries and bonuses, pay employees the least as possible, and raise prices of products, in order to pay themselves more.
People are fully aware of this but no one does anything because they have their smart phones and reality tv distractions. A revolution like France had will only fix a problem like this but not till it gets more dysfunctional.
What do you think all the new immigrants are for.
@@6140LIBRA so let's regulate poor foreigners instead of the people with power right? That'll fix it!
@@Redactedlllllllllllll Not regulating poor foreigners is what the people with power want.
Same thing happened in 08. Believe it or not McDonald’s used to have full time jobs
As long as there’s a housing shortage I don’t see how prices will fall. Another thing to talk about is the regulation of air b&b’s. A lot of cities are cracking down on short term rentals and people way over invested in that. If there’s a massive sell off of those it could be interesting.
Mass layoffs
😂
They only represent a tiny fraction of the market, probably less than 1%. And many are not in places you'd want to live anyway.
I think what’s ultimately keeping sellers delusional is the equity that they have… on paper. When they realize they will NEVER be able to cash out the artificial gains with 8% mortgage rates they will start to panic
dont be silly
everyone agrees that any sentence that contains NEVER can NEVER be right, including this one.
@@DrSchor Nothing in my area is selling at 8% rates.
@@DrSchor Unicorns never existed
I think it varies by region. Here in southern California people are still buying these 800k+ single family homes, despite the high interest rates. Yes, it's insane.
This is true to a point however when you actually dig into it you'll discover that the majority that can't sell the house for what they want take it off the market and stick around. Nobody in their right mind is going to dump a 2-4% interest rate. I understand why you are bitter but really you should have jumped in yourself. Later next year these same houses will go up for sale and will get the same or more than they previously asked for.
Personally I think that prices are going to drop, but they aren't going to drop as much as they should. Speculators are buying in cash, so with the huge jump in mortgage rates, they will have much less competition. If the cost of renting stays high, they have every reason to continue buying. If there is legislation passed that makes it much more unpleasant for speculators/investors to purchase homes, I think think prices will drop significantly.
'If there is legislation passed that makes it much more unpleasant for speculators/investors to purchase homes, I think think prices will drop significantly.' That is never going to happen because both the Democrats and Republicans are bought and paid for by the corporations.
Cash isn't really cash. It's more like money at 2 and 5 year rates. The money is just sourced without a mortgage.
@@eattherich9215 Well, I know it's wishful thinking, but there may be extreme political pressure to do so. On rare occasions, legislation is passed that is bad for corporations.
@@eattherich9215You have it all backwards. If there's more landlords and rentals rents would be lower. Having less investors means less options for people to live driving prices higher. Same thing with builders, we need more entry level homes but it's too expensive to build. Builders and landlords don't set prices, supply and demand of the market does. They simply provide a service or product at current market rate. Any efforts to manipulate the market will only make it more expensive
@@dmitryg6353 That's kind of true, but there are loads of people who would like to buy a home but can't afford it. If investors were out of the picture, home prices would drop and some renters would become home owners. Either way, the real solution, as you say, is to build more entry level homes. Unfortunately it seems like building a home (even a smaller home) starts at $300K where I live.
Here in Florida it’s all speculation hoarding homes and driving the market. Lots of flippers are playing hot potato with other flippers.
What goes up, must come down. . . . except prices.
This was an excellent video! Thank you for a financially sophisticated and well thought out analysis.
Real estate is in a bubble. As liquidity is removed by the Fed and interest rates remain high, all markets will correct.
Nicely done video. We know that home transactions are the lowest since 1995. We also know we're at an all time high of debt-to-income ratio. But we have a very low unemployment rate (lowest since 2000 and 1945).
My view is that the market is basically frozen right now. People aren't buying and people aren't selling. And only few selected areas are building. I go back to what I thought back in 2021...any type of crash/correction will be market dependent. It will depend on a variety of factors for each market, particularly migration. This is where it's different from 2008 because we had more people moving and relocation than we did back then. And it depends on the net migration, how many people that migrated to a market stayed there and how accurately that market built new homes to meet their net migration. And it will also depend on the local economy, too.
Most homeowners just can't sell now because it makes no sense to do so. And in reality, it doesn't make sense for most people to buy because not only can many of them not afford it, but it's hard to justify the price increases, particularly with the rate hikes.
Even the homeowners that bought pre-COVID are having issues because their debt-to-income is high too. That just means to me that they are borrowing money. And they can continue to borrow money as long as they have a job. But if unemployment raises substantially those that become unemployed will not be able to borrow.
One thing that, to me, is a bad omen for the economy is AirBnB sales. Particularly in a place like Myrtle Beach where most of the AirBnB's are condos, usually on the ocean that charge significantly less than renting a room thru the resort because the resorts charge 'resort fees.' It's a vacation destination, yet AirBnB sales are down hte most there (IIRC down by 40%). Typically when an economy is not doing well, the vacation market feels it the most and given all of those factors it's a bit alarming to see the Myrtle Beach AirBnB market doing so poorly. Also, it was predicted after COVID that a bad recession would hit and luxury items would be the first to see their prices drop and we're starting to see that right now.
Anyway, I think what's going to happen is that once unemployment goes up and people start to lose their jobs and can't borrow anymore, we'll see a large mass of people downsizing by going from owning a home to renting instead of downsizing by going from owning a home to owning a smaller home. The smaller homes are just priced too high and the rates have gone up too much. These people will need liquidity and will sell the home and rent. And many will feel they can sell the home, rent and then when the rates go down again (usually due to unemployment) they can buy again, hopefully at a more reasonable price with a better rate.
I don't think one is coming, but I gotta move soon no matter what, so I will keep my fingers crossed regardless
A solid coverage of the state of play. My 2 cents is we will see prices just flatline for 2024. Volume will be down so prices will remain strong.
Just visited New Orleans from NYC this weekend! Love this gal ! ❤
$200,000 houses THEY ARE TRYING TO SELL FOR $400,000. THESE BUILDERS ARE INSANE.
HOW ZBOUT BUILD BASIC HOUSES THAT ARE AFFORDABLE FOR PEOPLE.
WE DON'T WANT CONDOS IN GEORGIA AND FLORIDA.
WE WANT HOUSES.
I'm a mortgage broker in Socal... I think it will fall if we get a recession and there are massive layoffs... Another big issue in California right now is prop 13. If this is somehow repealed and CA begins taxing on assessed value we may see a mass exodus from the state due to people not being able to afford the property tax (retirees). The exodus would lead to a massive suppy of homes on the market causing a huge correction in values.
Don’t forget the huge supply of Airbnb houses that could go on the market for sale soon. Their ceo predicted a drop in interest for the end of the year. If people are losing money on them they will sell
Thanks Kristina for always keeping things real! I think the housing market will be in a stagflation period for 2024.
When you say stagflation, are you saying that you think home prices will remain high? Why would they remain high(and don’t say because people have locked in low mortgage rates). When mass layoffs come, it won’t matter what low rates people locked in, if they have no jobs to pay their mortgages
@@fgjf1079 ....... it's about supply and demand. Like Kristina said there are still not enough new homes being built. Because of this home prices in my humble opinion will remain flat. However different markets throughout the country will fluctuate in regards to pricing.
Don’t forget about increasing number of regulations against short term rentals. That will also bring more inventory.
Theres no inventory but there’s no buyers either. Let’s see which will come first. More buyers or more inventory?🤷♂️
Plenty of buyers here just nothing that’s affordable.
I bought my house in 1994. It had a home and an acre of land for which I paid 39 thousand dollars. THE HOME NEEED UPDATED COSMETIC WORK BUT HE BONES of the home were excellent.. I did the landscaping and now my me is worth around 350 thousand dollars. I bought it with a mortgage, but I paid the mortgage off early. I bought this property at the right time
This is my first time listening to you are amazing. I love the information I love the simple analysis and I love the straightforwardness.
Welcome to the channel.
After selling a large 5 bedrooms 4 bathrooms house in 2013 we elected to live abroad part time for the first 6 years of our retirement rather than “downsize” to a smaller house. We rented a nice apartment in a landlord occupied house, where we are still living temporarily at almost the same rent for 10 years. We have paid for some improvements that we wanted and helped with some maintenance costs. Although not reinvesting after we sold may have been our biggest financial mistake, it has proven to be the best life decision (after marrying each other). Our situation is pretty unique and we really are very lucky.
That's nice of them, most landlords will try to raise rent every year due to tax increases
It is nice of them, but we are great tenants. Haviing been home owners ourselves we don't trouble them with minor repairs, we've paid half of the cost of new appliances. We previously owned a two family house ourselves. I think finding a place where the landlord also lives in the building may be the secret. Around here (Western Massachusetts) you often can't find out who owns an apartment you want to rent.@@Optical_Ollusion
I have a feeling that the over priced markets with those homes in those areas will have slight collapse in values, but in areas where it's been affordable it will be the about the same. In my area of WNY the market has only been slightly increasing over the years (on average 2% or less yearly) but nothing drastic like that seen in Florida.
Prices wont be going down in florida
I really don’t think home prices will massively tank all of a sudden. I’d like to think they’d at least gradually go down a bit tho and it would be nice if affordable house availability would at least slightly go up.
Simply not enough inventory to cause a crash. Once we see lower interest rates people will flood back to the market and home prices will rise again.
I know and they don’t realize that don’t work in they favor
We are not going to see lower interest rates.
Nice balanced video. Rates will drop which will bring in more buyers.
People buy based on payment not price. There's a lot of money on the sidelines right now.
Foreclosures and late mortgage payments are at multi decade lows so no crisis there.
Just sold our home for 350k, we bought it for 170k in 2012, no way I would pay that much for it, it’s a 200k house max, houses way over priced
I keep hearing low supply. Meanwhile I see construction slowed, home being bought as investments and vacant homes sitting. Oh and rental neighborhoods being built faster then anything else.
Totally agree. It's not just supply, it qualified demand. Eventually we will work through cash and highly qualified buyers'.
Was in Charlotte NC last week. Lots of rental properties being built.
"They're not willing to build as many homes as they have in the past"..... That's not what the new "superstar" of outing builders says - Melody Wright. Check her out. She literally went to multi-state huge projects. She says thousands of completed homes have not filed final occupancy certificate from the builders .... letting builders carry them as "vacant land". Even on the company statements- they're listed as "vacant land". Get ready .......... last downturn was over 5 years, peak to trough.
Kristina is self insurance for homes a worthwhile subject of discussion? If so what does it entail? My girlfriend in Florida is self insured.
Not likely to change much in the DC area...there are almost always more people looking to buy then houses available. Will the prices go down here, you're guess is as good as mine, but I'm not betting on it anytime soon.
Price drops are occurring regularly in DC real estate.
Prices here in NE PA are stable. Houses are on the market for less than 1 month. No new building in my area, except a luxury apartment building with 20 units.
There are so many houses in Lake Charles that have never been repaired since hurricane Laura.
Over built in the Tampa, and North area. Local news just had about Zephyrhills, FL
I think more and more communities and counties and states will realize what a serious emergency the housing situation is. They will start 1. requiring a large % of SFR to be owner-occupied (all future sales), and those already in the hands of investors (non-owner occupied) will be accessed an emergency housing fee every year. Once the house is sold, it cannot go back to being investment house. This could greatly impact prices and availability in a positive manner!
Some states and lots of other countries already do this.
As soon as a law happens where corporations can’t buy single family homes, the market will correct lol
The corporate vultures will grab any "cheap" houses during a correction.
They have been doing it for years. I see them ignore larger and better homes, and going after cheaper and even distressed properties, leaving only mid-priced and high-end properties available for prospective individual home buyers.
I don’t believe there will be massive changes as a whole (maybe in certain markets), but overall we’ll see more a stabilization. Plus many seem to forget if there was an influx of homes on the market either due to the economy, job loss, lower interest rates, or stronger short term rental regulations that just means more competition from corporate investors that more than like will get first dibs on the property and/or have more capital than you and outbid you on the home. Either way it won’t be a win for buyers.
I feel prices will drop. Build my first home 1980,s. It was FHA at 9%. My last mortgage was 4% .Now in rent with a 2yr. lease I will buy again even at 73 years old. My question at this point is where? Looking but not discouraged. Thanks for your info.
I imagine it depends where you live. Areas that saw tremendous increase will cool off and go down a bit while areas that have seen little price increase over the past decades will just continue to slowly grow.
so what if you have equity you cannot get it out...unless you sell...or get a 11% HELCO
Even lumber prices are crazy. I wanted to put a new wood fence up. The cost of each 6 x 8ft fence panel is now $80.00 double from 2 years ago at $38.00 each.
Wow you nailed it, in our town there are three developments going up right now, all 3 large scale projects are build to rent. Arizona rents are at an all time high so profit for these condo and bungalow style homes is way more profitable than single residence
You are not making sense. Condominiums are a form of ownership. Bungalows are an architectural style. Rent v own is a financial decision. Three disparate and not equivalent.
@@blackmanops3749 sorry I didn't qualify they are all rentals, not a single buy to own development is going up.
As long as the mind set is interest rates will go down in near future 12 18 months prices won’t move to much. If the sentiment changes to interest rates are high for multiple years to a decade you will see inventory and price reductions
the housing in san diego still high so higher that i cant afford to buy one ' i heard the housing crash will happened again ' like it happened in 2008 waiting for that to happen
It needs to happen soon so I can buy a house already.
If you couldn’t buy a house recently at 2-3% interest then you never will buy a house
You and millions of other people waiting and hoping for same. Ten years from now you'll look back and say the same thing, should have bought then but now I'll wait a little longer
Right@@dmitryg6353
Why didn’t the millions of people buy homes in 2010-2019? People follow the herd. And pretty soon the herd is gonna want a double or triple priced home like they want cancer.
So this could also be regional ? Like San Antonio, Prices have leveled out. The house I sold back in 2021 has stayed the same (+or-) $10K
I think it really depends on where. Like, there's a new manufacturing initiative for chips. Where the factories start up, that's where increasing prices will be. In Florida, there's talk of new building regulations to deal with flooding and storms, so prices are likely to increase along the coasts, and inland where others go to relocate. Look at regulations and business initiatives.
The real estate market is already starting to correct but in different ways than in the past. A little over 25% (depending where you live) of single family homes are now owned by investors - CA is as high as 35%. Once interest rates drop to around 5%, velocity in inventory/sales will increase and prices will drop noticeably. The Fed actions keeping interest rates too low for too long followed by a record increase to try to control inflation have frozen a dramatically overpriced real estate market, frozen the equity markets who are now parking their money in short-term bonds, put at risk many of our regional banks, and opened the doors for insurance companies to significantly increase rates. All of this is unsustainable and only the blind cannot see what is right around the corner...
It would be double our payment to buy our rental. House on the corner we had a eye on because it needed work was bought by an investor .before the price got too low. We are one of the frew areas where availability is up to pre pandemic.
lots of small builders take out construction loan for 10-18 months term. they need to refinance if the house does not sell.. that might be another reason we will see deep price cut.
I don't see a crash coming but I'll wait on the sidelines
Facts
You're only looking at large urban centers. Things are very different and more complex rural and suburban markets. And, of course, all markets are local, even within large urban centers.
Why show a super old 2020 chart for homebuilder confidence? The reading has not been "up and down" as crazily as that chart showed at the Covid times. It is currently at a reading of 45 while the graph you showed was up in the 80s.
My sense is prices will drop, but they won't free fall crash (if they do, we got bigger problems). Too many macro forces to push us back to 2017 levels.
Honestly I don’t think there will be a crash I think a balancing will happen though. Truthfully I don’t think people care if there isn’t a crash, we just want prices to balance so we can save to buy a home and it won’t go up 20% while we save because then we can’t afford it. Interest rates being lower would also be nice. I think the real problem is investors and air bnbs, that’s what needs to be regulated.
As long rate up it will be steady
You've highlighted a lot of external factors impacting house prices. But the primary cause of this has been individual's lifestyle choices.
You mean, the lifestyle of corporate hegemony and market fixing? Yeah, I agree. Those lifestyles are bastardizing our economy.
I think home prices will stay high, and the local and state gov'ts will incentivize homebuying, while the rest of us get creative and inventive to find another way to put and keep a roof over our heads...we can't let the greed win!
Another greed whiner...
state government will NOT jump in to help. What country are you talking about? smh
@@maxxomega6599 No, you mean another greed 'watcher' - I've been studying housing and real estate for 3 years now; not ready to buy just yet.
Greed is the motivator right now. Those with low interest rates are looking at equity that has grown about 30% and price homes for sale as such even with the 8% rates. The issue is wages haven't followed the trend and now most are simple priced out. We are in a slow burn. Inventory will build over the next three years or so and should force prices down more in line with current interest rates. The real disaster is if the fed sudennly decides to lower rates. The market would suddenly be flooded with buyers who were on the sidelines and this will result in price increases.
Well, interesting! Unfortunately greed for ridiculous profits drives again another valuable life moment. Not to mention the ridiculously excessive down payment required to buy anything!
What greed? It's supply and demand. Would you sell your home for any less than top offer? Would you go to work for 20% less than you currently make? Why not, are you greedy?
RV/trailer park in Wimauma, Fl gave its 55+ year old residents 6mth notice because they sold. I am guess that’s about 60 homes.
Mobile home parks are the newest target for investors.
The government seems to do what will have the opposite effect of what is needed. People are going to get more desperate for affordable housing and a new concept may come out or an old one will return.
I did think owning multiple properties was the goal, but now it’s just stressful to have those assets.
My focus is to own outright my own property, so that others can also hopefully a home of their own.
I just wish the price of materials would come down. Cant even do anything to the house you have with prices on materials so high
People forget how it works with the housing market. Supply and demand. It'll slow but won't crash
@KritinaSmallhorn the reason elderly women are losing their homes to foreclosure is simply affordability. Property taxes have become so burdensome for them and COLA increases have not kept pace with inflation. I’ve heard of instances where they cut their medication in half to stretch it or go without eating etc. Often times when their spouses passed the amount of money left behind doesn’t go very far. And when they have no way to afford the property taxes they find themselves losing their homes and going homeless. And one thing is for certain our current manner of addressing these sorts of things is to “simply make more money”. As if it were that easy.
The real problem is folks don’t see beyond their own selfish current standing. Not realizing they’ll face the same dilemma at some point as well. Our society is one of look out for number one and forget everyone else but that model will have us all having our own day of reckoning.
If you own a home with a low rate and were thinking about moving before all this began...I would advise don't. If you have children, when they come of age allow them to live with you and save up money to pay the difference in what you owe, then let them pay the house off and have it. Older people can take the lump sum from the children and buy, build, or travel smaller.
Get real...In my old age I want peace and quiet. Not adult kids moving in with their screeching brats hollering all day...
@maxxomega6599 I feel like people aren't accounting for that with all these "move your family in" comments. If you are retirement age you aren't gonna wanna go backwards.
Finally!! Some rock solid family and financial advice!
@@maxxomega6599if you don't like kids why did you have any?
@@maxxomega6599can’t wait for you to experience neglect in the old folks home you’re getting sent to lol
Prices have already declined more in 2023 and any single year of the GFC. But it's not a crash.
We live in the ara of "admit nothing" until it's undeniable.
insurance? Self insure; create owner controlled fund to handle what insurance would pay. Might take a decade of savings. I know Iknow ; be very diligent to reduce any risks.
"A segment of our population (not companies )who are in charge of housing have been gouging consumers while they line their pockets with unscrupulous cash, in every market segment post pandemic," so now is not the time to buy.
Fixed it for ya! You're welcome!
If move up buyers don’t move up because of the rates they may have refinanced too and we still have an huge shortage of homes it’s going to kind of settle maybe some ups and downs. They’ll tell you foreclosures are up but that’s because they were down…and that’s lagging data because a foreclosure can take forever. If it’s the right time for you and the deal you’re trying to do makes sense just a move if not wait. I think there will be another feeding frenzy soon but that’s imo
I took my money and invested on solar batteries, fridge, panels, and a tent until I wait this out, saving like 3 grand a month and recovered my costs quickly. It's simply going to be when older generations start dying off and demand goes down.
The housing crash is far from being the only crash as the car market is heading for a crash of its own although I wouldn't rule out the stock market or the Canadian dollar as its heading towards 50 cents American. China, Russia and many others have had an economic crash but the crash I worry about is the one that begins with me.
Once mortgage rates come down, people will start buying and bidding wars will be the norm. Inventory will remain low for many years because lots have sub 3% mortgages.
Location, location, location are 3 major factors.
I personally think home prices will maintain a steady course to many homes are being held by large companies and investment companies that want at all cost their return on the property. People including myself will not purchase home from one of these companies.
Here in Denver metro I see like 30% of the houses with price drop. Last week I almost to buy a house: They redused it on 10/2 with 34K from 699K to 665K. My broker send an offer for 650K 4 days after they dropped the price and they accepted in less than 48 hours. This is total of 49K less. I on the next day I changed my mind. I am gonna wait for my dream home like 6 months and I will save another 50K from salaries . Than the house with a price range 750-780 I will get it for less than 700K with more than 20% down. Yes the interest rates will stay high, the leople will loose their jobs and will be forced to sell. Now most of the listings are from motivated sellers. I am expecting 20% price drop for the next 2 years. Sorry home owners....
Can I ask what you do for a job? (or what business you own?)
It was overpriced in the first place Those are the homes that have price cuts
@@Iffy50I own a small tire shop
If your going to have the house for the next 5 years you can buy at whatever price your comfortable with.
@@Jack-russell103is that what you tell yourself to sleep well at night?
Raise the income tax on upper middle class and rich. If not even they can't afford a home because of oppressive taxes it will go down.
That's my best idea.
Ok comrad, why not just go ahead and steal it from others that worked for what they have? What else would you like from the rich, a lambo or a boat perhaps? You deserve it right? I bet there's someone in your neighborhood who thinks you're rich compared to their finances. Maybe you should be taxed more so homeless can afford to live in your house? Where do you draw the line?
If you own your home outright do you need to have homeowners insurance?
You don't but I highly recommend it. I own a paid off home. Would be a shame for something bad to happen and lose it all.
In Dallas-Fort Worth, there is an abundance of build-to-rent homes flooding the market. If the rental market takes a downturn and the homes placed for sale, it will have a significant impact. Also, let's not forget about lenders who are holding on to foreclosures in hope they will appreciate in value. We should see a very different market by the end of 2024.
If everyone on RUclips says there will
Be a crash, it means there won’t be a crash…
All of the above.
I think prices are going to drop but not by a lot and not like 2008. People that have a low interest rate still have a lower monthly payment than someone who rents. At least in my area. If they can’t afford their mortgage they won’t be able to afford to rent. What I have seen in my area is families moving together to keep up with inflation. I don’t see a massive housing crash like some people are saying.