Couple points to make: - I discuss PPM/price as it is a good indicator of the cost effectiveness of the player. What I've presented in the graphic is just PPM, but I am actually discussing about PPM/Price, which you can technically calculate off the numbers I've shown. Generally, the point is Premium defenders are still cost-effective despite the numerous bonus changes. For example, Haaland is 0.47 and Salah 0.54 whereas the most premium defender in Trent is 0.6, with White 0.74 just based off of last season's output. - As far as 'poor finishing' goes in the final graphic, the key point is that it is clearly also just 1 season worth of data. It's not necessarily indicative of how Jackson and Nunez will continue to perform in the PL in the long run, as we know finishing can go up and down, but the key point is you still want players who scores numerous goals and get numerous chances like Jackson and Nunez despite their 'poor finishing'. Not meant to be a slight on them!
I think one mistake I’ve seen people making is failing to put underlying data in proper context. An example from when this was a mistake in the past was that one year where everyone fell in love with Pedro Neto’s data and he was a template player. Now the data wasn’t WRONG, but anybody who knew anything about Wolves could have told you that Wolves didn’t have a striker at the start of that season - Neto would have nobody to link up with to create attacking opportunities. Where I am seeing people do this this year is with Sels at NFO. They look at NFO having really low xGC and think oh wow this guy must be a great keeper. They don’t look at hey wait he let in 9 more goals than the xGC said he should have, in fact he has never in his whole career had a season where he didn’t concede more goals than xGC say he should, maybe he’s a player I should avoid at all costs.
Yes it’s points per match. I divided this figure by the million to find ppm/million so when I'm discussing down to 0.x that is what I'm talking about roughly
It's a fair point regarding xGC. Shotstopping is a very reveal thing although it's quite up and down. Sels has actually been a positive shot stop per at 17/18 and 19/20 though, so not sure what you mean by he's never kept more xGC out than GC. He has had several few mediocre seasons and one outlying bad one which was last using a full season's data so it's fair to say he can underperform, but I wouldn't be so harsh to say he is someone to avoid entirely
Remember all the talk last season about Haaland not being an elite level finisher. I also remember having him in my team (obv at the wrong times) and being disappointed with blanks and low scores. He was also out with injury/fitness. Yet look how he scored 27 goals with 5 assists. Incredible. And I'm still planning to go without him for the most part this season. Love the pricing this year.
Excellent video. I definitely experience FOMO. Really appreciate you sharing your experiences of when things didn't go right (and still finished in the top 500!). Thank-you
Incredibly good video! Very interesting PPM metric especially regarding the importance of premium defenders. And thinking about it a nomium structure could be the way as long as you make sure you always have a good fixture to captain a lesser premium in.
in theory yes, but the proverbial good Haaland fixture ceiling is there (like the gulf between him vs the field in GW2 vs IPS (H). It'll just be about whether your additional expensive picks will make up for that sort of potential damage. Fun trade off to consider
Hey fran would u rather 1. porro, bruno, winks, havertz Or 2. 4.0 def, son, nkunku, muniz? 2nd option allows the 8 viable attackers which i like. Thanks legend
Seems like they might be in the market for another striker! I imagine there might be a bit of soft rotation if they get one but can’t see Watkins’s minutes being that impacted
I was away for the past 10 days, but I'm back now and binge watched all your videos from the past week. Im so ready for the next season. My current draft is: Flekken & Henderson // TAA, Burn, Mykolenko, Munoz & Gvardiol // Eze, Foden, Nkunku, Salah & Rogers // Wood, Isak & Watkins Any tips?
Hey Fran, who are your favourite rotating GKs? Not a fan of the Chelsea minutes risk and so I have Henderson and Flekken at the moment. I love what you said about FOMO particularly because I’m struggling with that. However, I have Salah, Haaland and Trent and I think those price points could be valuable for future transfers, especially with the new rules. Great video Fran, you helped me massively last season and in the Euros too, good luck this year!
@@FPLFran Why? For me it was purely safety of a good fixture for my reasoning. Do you think a 5.0 is the way to go or is freeing up the 0.5 valuable? Lots of 4.5 options that I like, who is your favourite? I would probably adjust the 4.5 defenders in my draft accordingly. I have mykolenko, konsa and aina at the moment but like I said I would change it depending on who my GK was.
Hey Fran, top video! I'm a nerd too ahah Regarding the PPM, how come Haaland has higher PPM than Watkins, ie, considering Watkins scored more and is cheaper? Got lost there
he played significantly fewer matches than Watkins is the short of it. I didn't add a column for what I was discussing in the actual video though, which was PPM/price - that would reflect Watkins much better of course given he's 9 vs 15
Super confusing on the Points Per Million (PPM). Doesnt match the PPM on the screen, which looks like Points Per Match. Should have made a column with Points Per Million / Price so we could follow in the logic.
I think he will, which pre-season is already showing us. Hence why you also want to get the logic right in the first place. Last season made sense as Jesus was injured to start the season for example but I was wrong ultimately.
Great video but ... tsk tsk tsk Your last part "Use Data Well" is for Man UTD and has the correct emblem, but it says "Man City"! as a Man utd fan ... nah, I'm joking lol
@FPLFran: I know you said informal (sorry for the nerdy response😆), but would just like to point out that PPM/price is skewed, b/c our "real" budget isn't 100M, but 36M. IE the minimum you can spend on building your team is 64M, so you only have 36M left to increase the value of your team above the minimum. Of course, analysing "real" PPM/price is inconvenient because the cheapest options in each position will have infinite value. I guess some sort of utility analysis would provide a better metric. The reason for that long rant was to point out that PPM/price puts too much value on the big hitters and not enough on the cheaper options, imo 🙂
no you're absolutely right, although a points per million per gw is a good indication of a player's general utility. I assume you mean ppm/price is skewed towards the cheaper picks?
I agree it's a useful metric. But let's frame FPL as "choose 15 players costing 0-11.5M with a budget of 36M" instead. Building on your numbers, Haaland's PPM/price would then be 0.6, Salah 0.8, Trent 1.4, White 1.9. So the cheap options seem even better. However, this also exposed the weakness of the PPM/price method, because any 4M GK or DEF (or 4.5 MID/FWD) would provide infinte value, and we don't have infinite spots in our team.
Finishing ability is the biggest myth in football If Darwin is a poor finisher he would be in every single season right? He wouldnt overperform his xG in Benfica by 7 He didnt forget how to finish suddenly If you ask people who has the most big chances missed every season very few will tell you Haaland i guess 34 big chances...Clearly fist If overperforming your xG is ability then why Ronaldo never did it? Lewandowski,one of the best strikers of our generation had season with 10 less G than xG
It’s not necessarily a myth per se as you can still aggregate xg:g over multiple up and down seasons, buit you are right it is extremely erratic. However if you chart multiple seasons of data we can still see a general trend if it is significant enough (Son is a good example of this). We don’t have most of ronaldo or messi prime years on record so I can't deny your claim, but I highly doubt he has 0 positive finishing years for data pre 17/18. We also do want to be fair and assess quality of finishing in different types of shots too. Big chances missed isn’t really a great stat as it’s more of an indicator of how many good possessions you hey into than finishing. Generally I agree the narrative goes too far on finishing.
On CR7, we only have xG for him dating back to 2014/15. He overperformed his xG that season which was a great one for him, I’m sure he overperformed in the years before that too but he honestly has not been as good of a player since then. People shouldn’t rate him in the same bracket as guys like Messi for finishing if we’re talking post-2015
@@FPLFran I'll stop commenting on this now, you pronounce it the way you want. Not sure if you read my previous comment either. Just check any interview with him if you want to get it right.
Couple points to make:
- I discuss PPM/price as it is a good indicator of the cost effectiveness of the player. What I've presented in the graphic is just PPM, but I am actually discussing about PPM/Price, which you can technically calculate off the numbers I've shown. Generally, the point is Premium defenders are still cost-effective despite the numerous bonus changes. For example, Haaland is 0.47 and Salah 0.54 whereas the most premium defender in Trent is 0.6, with White 0.74 just based off of last season's output.
- As far as 'poor finishing' goes in the final graphic, the key point is that it is clearly also just 1 season worth of data. It's not necessarily indicative of how Jackson and Nunez will continue to perform in the PL in the long run, as we know finishing can go up and down, but the key point is you still want players who scores numerous goals and get numerous chances like Jackson and Nunez despite their 'poor finishing'. Not meant to be a slight on them!
Hey Fran - Awesome video bro..thanks for making this one; helps a lot..👍👍👍Please do make a video on owning the premium players in the draft.
I think one mistake I’ve seen people making is failing to put underlying data in proper context. An example from when this was a mistake in the past was that one year where everyone fell in love with Pedro Neto’s data and he was a template player. Now the data wasn’t WRONG, but anybody who knew anything about Wolves could have told you that Wolves didn’t have a striker at the start of that season - Neto would have nobody to link up with to create attacking opportunities.
Where I am seeing people do this this year is with Sels at NFO. They look at NFO having really low xGC and think oh wow this guy must be a great keeper. They don’t look at hey wait he let in 9 more goals than the xGC said he should have, in fact he has never in his whole career had a season where he didn’t concede more goals than xGC say he should, maybe he’s a player I should avoid at all costs.
Hi Fran, How did you calculate PPM ?
Haaland has 217 points and valued at 15 million = 14.466
Thanks
Tony
Hi Fran, I thought it was points per million but it appears to be points per match
Yes it’s points per match. I divided this figure by the million to find ppm/million so when I'm discussing down to 0.x that is what I'm talking about roughly
It's a fair point regarding xGC. Shotstopping is a very reveal thing although it's quite up and down. Sels has actually been a positive shot stop per at 17/18 and 19/20 though, so not sure what you mean by he's never kept more xGC out than GC. He has had several few mediocre seasons and one outlying bad one which was last using a full season's data so it's fair to say he can underperform, but I wouldn't be so harsh to say he is someone to avoid entirely
Remember all the talk last season about Haaland not being an elite level finisher. I also remember having him in my team (obv at the wrong times) and being disappointed with blanks and low scores. He was also out with injury/fitness. Yet look how he scored 27 goals with 5 assists. Incredible. And I'm still planning to go without him for the most part this season. Love the pricing this year.
hah, he is a monster.
Excellent video. I definitely experience FOMO. Really appreciate you sharing your experiences of when things didn't go right (and still finished in the top 500!). Thank-you
Glad it was helpful! Highs and lows!
Very important video. A must watch. Thanks Fran
Thank you my friend!
Great video Fran, lots of good insights!
Glad you enjoyed it Leon, thanks for watching ❤️
Incredibly good video! Very interesting PPM metric especially regarding the importance of premium defenders. And thinking about it a nomium structure could be the way as long as you make sure you always have a good fixture to captain a lesser premium in.
in theory yes, but the proverbial good Haaland fixture ceiling is there (like the gulf between him vs the field in GW2 vs IPS (H). It'll just be about whether your additional expensive picks will make up for that sort of potential damage. Fun trade off to consider
Thank you Fran, great video with alot of help. I need more patience this season,abd not rush for transfers. From Cape Town South Africa 🇿🇦
Good luck this season!
Excellent concept of video!
Glad you liked it!
Hey fran would u rather
1. porro, bruno, winks, havertz
Or
2. 4.0 def, son, nkunku, muniz?
2nd option allows the 8 viable attackers which i like.
Thanks legend
2nd tbf.
Completely forgot that Villa is in the Champions League, starting to rethink Watkins.
Not until September. Chances are you will wild card not long after it starts anyway. He’s a good pick.
Seems like they might be in the market for another striker! I imagine there might be a bit of soft rotation if they get one but can’t see Watkins’s minutes being that impacted
@@FPLFran Maybe because Diaby left
Wally Otkins the 🐐
Glad you clarified on Reece James … I will never buy him again after 4 odd years of being burned 🤣
I will buy him when I see him play more than 3 games in a row 😆
Feel like we are witnessing this season's breakout fpl content creator. Awesome vid
Thank you SP!
Very good vid, thanks for making 😊
Glad you liked it!
I was away for the past 10 days, but I'm back now and binge watched all your videos from the past week. Im so ready for the next season.
My current draft is: Flekken & Henderson // TAA, Burn, Mykolenko, Munoz & Gvardiol // Eze, Foden, Nkunku, Salah & Rogers // Wood, Isak & Watkins
Any tips?
No real tips, think that is a strong strong draft. Watch out for Foden fitness and maybe conssider Muniz > Wood just for safety of mins
@@FPLFran good shout. According to the latest news, Joao Pedro might be fit. If so, i'll swap Wood and Foden for Pedel and Saka.
Use data properly- slight mistake - having a Man U badge next to Man City 😂
Great content 👏
hahaha fair play. 😂
Hey Fran, who are your favourite rotating GKs? Not a fan of the Chelsea minutes risk and so I have Henderson and Flekken at the moment. I love what you said about FOMO particularly because I’m struggling with that. However, I have Salah, Haaland and Trent and I think those price points could be valuable for future transfers, especially with the new rules. Great video Fran, you helped me massively last season and in the Euros too, good luck this year!
I tend to not love rotating GKs but I do think Flekken + someone else is the way to go.
@@FPLFran Why? For me it was purely safety of a good fixture for my reasoning. Do you think a 5.0 is the way to go or is freeing up the 0.5 valuable? Lots of 4.5 options that I like, who is your favourite? I would probably adjust the 4.5 defenders in my draft accordingly. I have mykolenko, konsa and aina at the moment but like I said I would change it depending on who my GK was.
Hey Fran, top video! I'm a nerd too ahah
Regarding the PPM, how come Haaland has higher PPM than Watkins, ie, considering Watkins scored more and is cheaper? Got lost there
he played significantly fewer matches than Watkins is the short of it. I didn't add a column for what I was discussing in the actual video though, which was PPM/price - that would reflect Watkins much better of course given he's 9 vs 15
Hi Fran, regardless of price, which do you think is better, Eze or Bailey?
Eze if he is a Palace player
Great vid again
Top tips ! Just follow the FPL Fran team to get the top 10k 😂😂 Also that week 34 cost me my mini league last year. 💀
I feel between 400 to 500% iirc
I’m going with
Raya
TAA, Mykolenko, Gvardiol
Nkunku, Eze, Son, Salah(C)
Watkins, Isak, Wood
Substitutes - Valdimarsson, Barco, Rogers, Andersen
Any thoughts?
I actually do not mind this at all. I might not be hugely fond of Watkins gw1 to start though
Would love a 3 premium draft. Thanks 😊
will look into it! might be a part of the premium defense vid.
Haaland on the graphic at the end is ridiculous lol
yeah tbf it's just an illustration of how many chances he gets. Insane!
cause I was looking for him on the chart 😂😂
Great vid as always Fran! Could you make a draft without Haaland and Salah? I think it can show how many options there really are. Love from Sweden 💯
done! love from London right back aha
what is FOMO
Fear of missing out
Super confusing on the Points Per Million (PPM). Doesnt match the PPM on the screen, which looks like Points Per Match. Should have made a column with Points Per Million / Price so we could follow in the logic.
yeah that was my bad tbh, as already indicated in the pinned comment.
Havertz will still play midfield in a solid number of games.
I think he will, which pre-season is already showing us. Hence why you also want to get the logic right in the first place. Last season made sense as Jesus was injured to start the season for example but I was wrong ultimately.
Great video but ... tsk tsk tsk
Your last part "Use Data Well" is for Man UTD and has the correct emblem, but it says "Man City"!
as a Man utd fan ... nah, I'm joking lol
Ah true appreciate pointing it out! Was editing late in the night and must have not noticed
@FPLFran: I know you said informal (sorry for the nerdy response😆), but would just like to point out that PPM/price is skewed, b/c our "real" budget isn't 100M, but 36M. IE the minimum you can spend on building your team is 64M, so you only have 36M left to increase the value of your team above the minimum. Of course, analysing "real" PPM/price is inconvenient because the cheapest options in each position will have infinite value. I guess some sort of utility analysis would provide a better metric.
The reason for that long rant was to point out that PPM/price puts too much value on the big hitters and not enough on the cheaper options, imo 🙂
no you're absolutely right, although a points per million per gw is a good indication of a player's general utility. I assume you mean ppm/price is skewed towards the cheaper picks?
I agree it's a useful metric. But let's frame FPL as "choose 15 players costing 0-11.5M with a budget of 36M" instead.
Building on your numbers, Haaland's PPM/price would then be 0.6, Salah 0.8, Trent 1.4, White 1.9. So the cheap options seem even better. However, this also exposed the weakness of the PPM/price method, because any 4M GK or DEF (or 4.5 MID/FWD) would provide infinte value, and we don't have infinite spots in our team.
Finishing ability is the biggest myth in football
If Darwin is a poor finisher he would be in every single season right? He wouldnt overperform his xG in Benfica by 7
He didnt forget how to finish suddenly
If you ask people who has the most big chances missed every season very few will tell you Haaland i guess
34 big chances...Clearly fist
If overperforming your xG is ability then why Ronaldo never did it?
Lewandowski,one of the best strikers of our generation had season with 10 less G than xG
It’s not necessarily a myth per se as you can still aggregate xg:g over multiple up and down seasons, buit you are right it is extremely erratic. However if you chart multiple seasons of data we can still see a general trend if it is significant enough (Son is a good example of this).
We don’t have most of ronaldo or messi prime years on record so I can't deny your claim, but I highly doubt he has 0 positive finishing years for data pre 17/18.
We also do want to be fair and assess quality of finishing in different types of shots too. Big chances missed isn’t really a great stat as it’s more of an indicator of how many good possessions you hey into than finishing. Generally I agree the narrative goes too far on finishing.
On CR7, we only have xG for him dating back to 2014/15. He overperformed his xG that season which was a great one for him, I’m sure he overperformed in the years before that too but he honestly has not been as good of a player since then. People shouldn’t rate him in the same bracket as guys like Messi for finishing if we’re talking post-2015
Haha, it's not Munoth.
well it's certainly not Munoth, it's an accented N. The only way you can read it in Spanish is Munyoth or Munyoz
@@FPLFran I'll stop commenting on this now, you pronounce it the way you want. Not sure if you read my previous comment either. Just check any interview with him if you want to get it right.
Salah is not overpriced at all...Hes .5 million underpriced.. Son is spot on..the rest of the premiums are overpriced.
I didn’t say he’s overpriced. I said he’s priced because he’s close to a perma captaincy option