Mavericks-Thunder Predictions: Will Luka Doncic & Dallas end OKC's dream season? | Hoops Tonight
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- Опубликовано: 5 май 2024
- Jason Timpf shares his predictions for Luka Doncic, Kyrie Irving, and the Dallas Mavericks' matchup with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren, and the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round of the NBA Playoffs. Jason discusses the biggest factors in the series, breaks down film from prior matchups, and shares his pick for who will advance to the Western Conference Finals.
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Jason killing the game with these playoff videos, good shit dude
Maxi was more important for this series than people realize. He played an amazing 25 mins in the blowout in Feb
Mavs biggest advantage is size. Maxi being out significantly decreased that advantage
Djj usually gets the guy who uses more screens, while PJ tends to get the guy who is more iso heavy.
djj and PJ struggles against iso shifty guards... can see it last series against Harden... they let harden walk past with ease... but it could jkidd's gameplan to close out 3pt.. who knows
@@anghannyang5098 the scheme will be how good they can drive their matchups into help especially if pressuring them to go into their offhand drives. Also Chets 5-out off/def schemes, and then how physical mavs paint offense harms or hampers the mavs schemes. One thing the OKC have as a con is their rebounding numbers def/off are almost bottom tier regular season, if mavs can grab those boards can contribute alot. As a mavs fan I hope for mavs in 6, but I wouldn't be surprised OKC winning 5-7 tbh.
Mavs in 6.
aye low key homie these have been the best sports breakdowns on the internet. Not just basketball, but all of sports. You do your homework and are fair and objective. Phenomenal work.
So sad about maxi. I was at the game and couldn’t see just how bad it was. Props to him for going for it but damn..
It would be a huge surprise to see a better version of Timy... 🎉
DJJ on SGA, Luka on Giddey,Kyrie on Dort, PJ Washington on J Will and Gafford on Chet. That’s how Mavs should defend OKC.
*JDub
Dort on Luka, Jdub on Kyrie, Giddey on Jones, Shai on Washington , Chet on Gafford. That’s how OKc will defend Mavs.
luka will mark dort
Gafford is going to get cooked by Chet on the perimeter. He's not mobile at all.
DJJ on SGA
PJ on JDub
Kyrie on Dort
Luka on Chet
Gafford in the paint helping and Giddey left open in the corner.
This is how they should defend OKC
@@Jardermorder couldn’t agree more but no one talks about this. all anyone can ever focus on is “physicality”. No ones talks about Chet being one of the most physically engaging centers around despite his slight frame. And as you said, Gafford or Lively have absolutely zero chance of keeping up with Chet’s agility & mobility once the ball is put on the floor
FIRST. Jason i love your content. Never stop producing bangers. We’ll support til the end of time
Something to look out for, i think OKC and Chet especially will struggle with the rim pressure of Gafford & Lively, foul trouble could make it hard for Chet to contribute in some of these games. This should be a really good series nonetheless
As am OKC fan, Chet will tire out soon. Then its small ball actions and Our 3 hasnt been there all year.
For sure, if I was Jason Kidd id tell them to be as aggressive on offense as they can. On the other side, without Maxi now they NEED to perform
As an OKC fan I fear you're right
@@-TheInfamousOne- Clearly not a thunder fan. I'll give you one guess as to what team led the league in 3PT% this year.
Chet will be fine. He’s got his work cut out for him, he’s not going to stop everything, but he won’t bear the load alone and he’s still going to be great
You got it spot on! Only the exact opposite. Thunder to take the series.
I'm more of a Mavs fan(Laker fan first, Mavs fan second) and I want the Mavs to win. But I still need to see at least one game before I pick which side I think will win. Now, if the Mavs win the first game convincingly then I got them in 5. If they lose a really close game 1 then I still got the mavs in 6. But if they get blown out in game 1 by OKC then I got OKC in 7.
The mavs kinda got blown out in the first game vs Clippers so not entirely sure if that’s a good predictor of things.
THJ Heater games Incoming
I said the same thing. He's due
Timy will shine! 🎉
I think so, he was looking good today
Interested to see how physical Thunder can be, especially in the post.
Kleber is a huge loss. Means we’ll rely more on our bigs - need them to defend more in space and on the perimeter and could see that being the issue in OKC wins.
Still believe Dallas has the more potent offense, and enough D to limit OKC. I want to pick Mavs in 5 but with Maxi out, and the fact that every game is two days apart which will hurt Luka’s recovery time for his knee, Mavs in 6.
How does Dallas have a more potent offense, when OKC has been overwhelmingly better on offense in every measure??
Top 5 off and Def for 82 games man, honestly delusion levels 🤷🏻♂️
The disrespect to say 5 games hahaha
Okc came in #3 in offense, and #4 on defense…………..
I wonder if jkidd would go for Oliver .M. Prosper just to replenish kleber's defense and handle the rest with his cutting ability.
Red river shootout very similar to Sooners v longhorns!
Hey Jason,want honest opinion on Austin reaves. He is been very good for the most part as 3rd at best or 4th option in a lebron and AD led team which is already very hard to be consistent given how ball dominant AD and lebron and AD. Do you think he deserves a chance to be solid second option on a team like Atalanta hawks or something like that. Even Brunson wasn't doing this as second or third option in Dallas where luka is so ball dominant. Do you believe he should move elsewhere where he can be ball hogger like Brunson so he can develop and improve himself as a player. If you are Austin reaves,will you be looking to move on to a team like that to get yourself tested if you can be that guy. Cause if lakers go for young,there is a very good chance reaves will be traded to Atlanta
Thank you so much for actually acknowledging OKC exists😭🙏🏾
Okc just keeps getting counted against love it 👏
To be fair, you would also count them out if you weren't a fan😎
This guy is a true thunder hater
@@whitneyalbert5075 everybody Is saying that this Is a tough series although you guys have the youngest team in the playoffs and have no playoff experience in your rotation. You guys wouldn't pick youreselves too but everybody aknoledges that you still have a big chance despite everything bc we all love your team. + playoffs are mostly like this where regular season don't matter that much no more and series are more about matchups than everything (examples might be Miami in the past 4 years, Lakers last season, warriors last 2 seasons, etc). Still Is going to be a great series of Luka Is healthy and Its going to be a great learning process either for this or next post season for you guys regardless of how It ends
@@darckgamer382 it down matter if it’s this series last series or regular season this guy has constantly counted The Thunder out no matter what I’m sure even if we win this series he’ll count us out next round too but I’m here for it all THUNDERUP‼️⚡️
@@whitneyalbert5075 tbf i didn't keep up with his takes on okc and i was talking in general about how people sees this okc team, but i get your point, he shouldnt count you out and next year nobody will count you guys out for sure, y'all scary af
Luka cooked Dort all season but he’ll somehow magically be better this series and shut Luka down. The Mavs blew out the Thunder with all stars playing but it was a weird game. A lot of reaches in this take.
When Luka finally seemed to be walking normal in Game 5&6 he cooked Dort. OKC was lucky this series didn't end in 5.
Playoff Hardaway is about to show up
Lively can and has guarded Chet well. But Pj has done a great job on Wemby b4, so i think if needed he can guard chet.
If Gafford or Lively is on the court when Chet is out (which 1 of them should be), DAL should have a huge advantage on the boards. It will be important for them to dominate the glass in those mins. If OKC can hold down those mins they will have a fair chance at winning.
Chet is not a good rebounder for his size, so it doesn’t really matter if he’s on the floor or not. Dallas should control the glass no matter what.
@@feetermcgeeter you need to think bigger picture. It’s not all about Chet getting/ not getting the rebound. He is the only one on OKC that has a chances at keeping Gafford/ Lively from getting the rebound whether that be from boxing out, using his length for tip-outs, or even blocking the put-back if DAL does get the Off.Reb. DAL should still control the boards with him on the court. But my point was without anyone else to do those things when Chet is off the court, DAL needs to take full advantage of those mins.
This is the most I've ever disagreed with one of your series predictions. I hope you realize you keep underestimating OKC, you said R1 was going 6 or 7 and it was a sweep and one of the least competitive series of the first round, even with the Pelicans having a better post-game center than Dallas, and better perimeter defenders than Dallas. Luka is clearly injured and shot 23% on his 3s in the first round, and OKC has a major homecourt advantage. OKC's role players are much bigger offensive weapons than the Mavs role players, and OKC can guard Dallas much better than Dallas can guard them, especially with Maxi out. Dallas just dropped 2 games to the Clippers without their best player, and had absolutely catastrophic stretches in that series, the Thunder are WAY better than a non-Kawhi Clippers, and their "others" are much better on both ends than Terrance Mann, Russ, or Coffey; Chet also allows them to stretch the floor in a way that the Clippers couldn't. The Thunder always play with high effort and have been immune to stretches like Dallas has shown to be capable of, and their stars are 2-way players in a way that Luka and Kyrie just arent; even if Kyrie or Luka is defending well, neither of them have the defensive impact of a JDub or SGA. I find it hilarious that people think Gafford/Lively are going to pose a threat to Chet, Valenchunius has 40+ pounds on both of those guys, a longer wingspan, and a better post-game; Simply put, they are not nearly the threat that JV was. OKC was top 5 offense and defense for a reason, and even in this preview you went over all these different things the Mavs are going to need to try in order to find success which makes it seem pretty clear that OKC has quite the advantage going in. Luka himself said his knee isn't going to get better during this run. I think OKC is clearly the better team and my prediction would be for them to win in 6, but honestly wouldn't be surprised if it's 5.
Luka and Kyrie stepped up a lot on defense (Kyrie legit clamped PG) and not only that but PJ and DJJ will be their primary defenders on SGA and JDub. They’re the best defenders and have size. Also you really can’t predict that the pelicans were just going to be a horrible shooting team when BI wanted to force play after injury and CJ was just hot poo. They were beat up and Jonas did most of the work offensively and rebounding. But the pelicans don’t have Luka or Kyrie so it was too much on Jonas.
Was valenchunius playing with Luka and Kyrie? Gafford/Lively aren't going to post up anyone. That's not why people think they are going to dominate. They'll dominate because of Luka and Kyrie. Also Lively can actually hold his own on the perimeter. Nothing crazy but a lot better than Valenchunius.
One of the reason people think they are going to dominate is cause they are lighter and more mobile than Valenchunius but at the same time still have more strength than Chet.
Second reason people think they are going to do well is cause they are 2 of them. You can get a full game out of them while Chet is not going to play 48 minutes.
At the same time mavs also have 2 great ball handlers (again at least one of them will be on at all times) that can maximize their bigs potential.
Personally I think Lively will do better when Chet is on the floor. He can do better when he gets pulled out of the paint. And Gafford would dominate the air with Chet off the floor.
We will have to wait and see.
But again drawing any conclusion on how Lively or Gafford will do based on how Valenchunius did against OKC is useless.
W take. OKC ending this in 5 max and it's really obvious if you just look at the teams and the way they play instead of listening to noise.
most dumb comment i have ever read lol comparing Jonas to Gafford&Lively is so useless. Mavs is not a post-up team, instead they are a lob threat team. And chet will not gonna play 48mins. meanwhile, Dallas Bigs can play 48mins.
@@JohnDoe-uy9mz true.. mavs game run through pick and roll not post up game like jonas...
Two major mavs rotation players came a the deadline. The Mavs were at full strength with PJ and Gafford only one game vs OKC, the Mavs blow out where mavs dominated the glass
Dwight Powell is a defensive liability but he is great in pick plays
PJ on Giddey just doesn't make sense. Why would you have arguably your best defender on somebody who is probably OKC's 4th biggest threat offensively?
Mavs in 5.
Dallas in 6 .. Gafford will be amazing.
I hope you’re right man please
everyone talks about sga’s defense yet we’re putting him on djj 😭😭😭
margin for victory cant be that razor thin if youre picking the mavs in 6
Most people say the away team will win in 6 because a game 7 would be in OKC.
@@circaen yee totally understand i just wouldnt say that constitutes a razor thin margin. mavs will have to better more consistently to close the series out in less games. thats what home court does. increases margin for victory
@@taylor7264 lmao what are you talking about? Winning in 6 games could absolutely be a razor thin margin for error lmao
@@taylor7264I think you’re missing the point. Razor thin meaning the games will be very close, but winning in 6 as the road team just means you win your 3 home games and steal one on the road. Winning in 7 is the same, but game 7 is much harder to win on the road. So if the Mavs are gonna win the series, they likely have to steal game 1,2, or 5, and then close it out in front of their home crowd.
@@gandalfhodl8723 you gotta be a lkaers fan they're the type of ppl that call series' cole even if they dont win that many games
Pj or Morris for small ball centers.
Chet Holmgren works out with Shake Weights
Mavs in 6
Dallas going from playing the old, crippled, Ensure drinking, playoff choking Harden & Westbrook Clippers team to now playing a well-rounded, young, athletic team in OKC, that likes to play defense, will take a toll on Dallas eventually. OKC in 7
Maxi out is huge man I'm really not liking that.
Mavs in 5! Let's go Mavs!!!
lol hell no Gafford isn’t guarding Chet. That’ll be PJ…
Don’t worry okc fans lol this is the guy that said pelicans have a chance to upset us lol
I just want to see Luka's knee right so he can go back to hit some 3s.
If he shoots efficiently mavs win in 6
Mavs in 5...if Mavs win the 1rst game.
Hi
I think Dallas in 6
Djj on Shae
Mavs in 5
I'm glad y'all are saying we can atleast get a game I feel like we could get swept but the season is already a success
Cason Wallace on Kyrie assignment. I got OKC in this one as well. OKC in 6⚡️
Lmao @ a rookie guarding Kyrie 😂😂 bro this is not 2k
@@LonghornsLegend Shows how much you know ball 😂😂
Mavs in 6
Thunder in 5
Nope
Kleber is a bench player. His loss is slightly overblown.
yu dnt watch mavs games
Not really when running small ball against the thunders spread 5 offensive he would’ve been huge on defense guarding Chet
@@lionel.0274he does. Our Mavs suck when we go small ball. Gafford & Lively must play the 5 at all times!!!
@@SinaSoh yu knw that’s literally not true right … lineup data is tracked & maxi pj front court is one the mavs best lineup plus/minus … if yu gone be a fan atleast be informed instead of spewing nonsense
@@lionel.0274 what lineup data??? Your opinion??? If you are one of Maxi and Dwight Powell side chicks, don’t make it that obvious.
Ffs I am an okc fan but i got Mavs in 6 too 😭
You're not an OKC fan. Imagine being scared of a mid #5 seed when you just put in the season OKC did.
@@ctoaun23Mav fans be trolling hard asf because they know they are not getting out of this series 😂
Just being realistic Mavs are scary
@@D.ray2490 No they aren't. They have 2 good players and OKC have all the perimeter defenders in the world to throw at them. OKC is winning in 5 or 4, book it.
@@ctoaun23 Ignore that Mav fan bro. He wants a reaction
I expect PJ on Chet and Gaff on Giddey.
You acting like Maxi Kleber if Anthony Davis bro averages 4 points 💀
He's there for defensive small ball at the 5 or a 4 for a big lineup and not primarily for his 3pt shooting.
He said defense is where maxi shows his value, if he is also hitting 3's shit gets more complicated
For a team like the Mavs he is quite a huge loss.
mavs lack of offense versality if he's out and easy to predict... maxi can clear space and hit 3s and can defend well against shifty guard... yea is a loss if he's out... jkidd gotta find a way to replace him
@@anghannyang5098 It's fine even OKC doesn't have someone like that in their bench 6'10" that can shoot 3s, defend 1-5 and pnr. Chet have to do what jokic is doing right now which is to play every single minute.
Wait did this guy lol just analyzed the game or how the mavs beat us lol
If u put Kyrie on giddey thats a mismatch in the post
I think Luka will go for a dunk from the three point line and yell, "whiiiiiite powerrrr!!!" as he puts in through the rim kinda weakly tbh. 7.9/10
...
Thunder in 4🐕⚡️
Lol
😂
This is accurate, gonna be so funny seeing the Mavs fans reacting to it unfolding. Could go 5 at most.
@@ctoaun23have you watched basketball this year lmao
We like when Mavs opponents are delusional, don't we? 😅😜🤣
this clown show prediction is gonna look silly in a week
Not really
kleba guarding shai?? na this maxi thing is a built it defense of luka. bc at the end of the yr when jason tries to say luka is #2 in the world hes gonna have to explain away a 2nd loss against a guy who has a similar offensive impact this szn and is getting all-defense consideration in sga
A 2nd loss? What are you talking about? And saying shai has 75% of the offensive impact Luka does would be pushing it.
Shai all defense???? 😂😂😂😂😂 He gets steals but he aint no all defensive player
These Thunder fans are really something. Their takes are non sense.
@@circaen 2nd round loss**
shai is more efficient and averages a couple less assists. theyre neck n neck offensively.
but for luka what % is luka compared to shais defensive impact?? id say less than 75% maybe 50%
Mavs in 6 😂😂😂
Thunders in 6
Idk y people don’t believe in this lethal thunder team!!! Thunder takes it in 6
Top seeds get knocked off all the time, they aren’t invincible.
They aren’t invincible but they are under appreciated. A lot of casuals out there know nothing about OKC except they are young. Everyone wants to bet against the 1 seed if they can.
@@cvillato99History says that the team with the 1 seed, that swept their opponent in the first round, has a 100% success rate to win there 2nd round. Don’t talk to me, talk to history and basketball been around how long? And this stat has never been broken🤷🏾♂️
@@TexanByNature88 stat is meant to be broken... thats why there are stats...
@@anghannyang5098 Your right but not this time
Thunder first to four wins.
THUNDER IN 7!! Remember this comment!! This guy has constantly hated the thunder I’m convinced he’s bias
Saying all that whilst having Thunder in 7 lol
I'll remember and come back to this comment after mavs take it in 6
Mavs fans accused him of being a hater all season long. He can't win😂
Facts 🤷🏾♂️
OKC in 4, 5 at most. Getting the #1 seed was so clutch, allowing okc to play weaker teams like the Pels and Mavs.
We like when Mavs opponents are delusional...😅😜🤣
You are tripping mavs in 5
Facts 😂😂😂