2024 General Aviation Predictions
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- Опубликовано: 26 янв 2024
- #2024 #generalaviation #generalaviationmarket #aviationmarketing #beechcraft #bonanza #b36tc
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DISCLAIMER: All videos are for entertainment purposes only. Do not refer to them as instructional videos due to heavy editing and clips being edited out of context.
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Instagram: flying_with...
Website: ocraviation.com/
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Cameras - GoPro 4 Black, GoPro 7 Black, GoPro 8 Black, iPhone 12 Pro Max, Sony A7s mk.III
Suction Mount - Novoflex
Microphone - Rode Wireless Go
Contact:
Rich Manor
(562) 413-3251
Sales@ocraviation.com 
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Rich you have the best radio style- none of the super fast over stylized radio voice stuff, just solid human sounding communication. Great to learn from. Love the content.
Thank you!
Hi Rich, I’m a recently certificated private pilot. I bought a 182s a few months ago and I’m really enjoying my time in it. I really enjoy your channel and the practical yet professional nature of your videos. Keep ‘em’ coming!
Thank you and congrats on the license!
Great video Rich!!! I think you’re spot on, I think prices on used airplanes that are well taken care of with no damage history will continue to go up.
I’m aware of the accident you’re referring to. She had a RUclips channel and I’ve seen one of her videos where she’s having a hard time with the AP. Sadly both her and her father perished in that accident. I struggle to understand why she just didn’t shut the AP off and hand fly the airplane. I’m not going to Monday morning quarterback it . All I can say is that every time we loose on of ours the tragedy affects us all and we are forever reminded to take nothing for granted.
Recovery Parachutes on all possible planes or BAN non-essential GA. ENOUGH.
Check out the prop vortices at 1:55. That's super cool.
Been waiting for someone to see it. It’s on the thumbnail too!
Super cool shot, I have it saved to show students!
@cuda612 Nice - great idea…thanks for watching!
will mosaic change the dynamic - faster, better LSA that are properly built?
That prop vortex view was awesome at Min 1:55
Great info. Thanks.
Good stuff Rich. Your opinion definitely carries some weight as you’ve been in GA for a long time so if anyone has their finger on the pulse it’s you. Love the Bonanza.
Thanks - “educated guesses” I think the best way to view what I’m saying. Always love the Bonanzas!
Great video as always Rich! Where is the RV8 video? I see the short clips of it but can't seem to find it. Curious of your thoughts on it!
Didn't end up having the time to do the RV8 video, but I flew it cross country and did some acro in it and I loved it!
The only thing wrong with the V35 is it is too easy to fly. Doctors, lawyers and members of the clergy over confident. Get in trouble above ability. Outcome bad.
Great as alway 🎉
Hi Rich, I like your sunglasses. What brand are they? PPL/CPL/Instr rated, now working on my CFI
I think your prediction for 2024 seems to be pretty accurate. Lots of old planes and old pilots out there but the demand is surprisingly high. Except for the SR planes the prices will not drop. Do you have any experience in the Aerostar? My favorite recipe plane😊
Thanks for the 2024 insights. Valued, appreciated and I agree. I think some of those commenting are missing what you said. It is all about the quality of the equipment being sold. There is a lot of junk for sale and the prices of old out dated or timed out aircraft, I think will decline if they even sell at all. For those low time, clean, no accident history and modern avionics aircraft, I think they will do well, hold value and maybe even increase. Just my opinion of course. 😉
I'm sure your Predictions are pretty accurate.....Your in a unique position buying and selling A/C, all over the U.S. and foreign Countries (as well as accurately predict our future based on the inflow of New and used Equipment in all price ranges....Your Company is known for offering high quality A/C !!!!!
What price is fluctuating for a C402c, C310IIR and C500, thank you
Cheers Rich and greetings from Australia
Cheers!
I flew a 340 w/ram conversion the other week, what a sweet airplane. I just want the 177 RG prices to come down so I can pick one up.
Good presentation, production and information! Thank you. To those in comments that complained about the audio quality, MIC, ATC, I honestly am having no problems with this video/audio. I am using fairly high quality dual Bluetooth earbuds, and have low background noise from a tv, and frankly can hear Rich with no issues, and concentrate with what he is saying. I might say the best way to solve the difficulty of some viewers, was a lower ATC chatter volume.
Thanks. I should have turned radio down. It was a busy day as well. Always a struggle with talking an ATC.
I hope that in 2024 the accident rate will drop there are still to many GA aviation accidents, the Tennessee fly girl was a sad tragedy.
BTW the first half or so the ATC was really loud the rest was normal and easy to hear you. Safe travels.
Thanks for the feedback.
Everyone has an opinion, then you weigh them. Rich has been doing this a long time, and is highly experienced with piston, jet and turbo-prop GA planes. Flying, instructing, sales and service, his opinion should carry a lot of weight! I spent 40 years in R&D with several companies. For the last 2-3 years there has been an Australian company at Osh that is working on a turbine for the light single/twin prop market. Last I saw they had a running mule, or 'test engine'. Target HP was 150/450 on jet_A, a big weight reduction, and a target price of $80k. There was a lot of swap estimates, $120(all in) seemed most reasonable? I'll have to hunt them down again, but that could be huge! A couple of those on a Cessna twin could be a whole new airplane! Even some singles in good shape? And a new Cirrus or Diamond turbine?!? Cirrus under $1M!! Lets hope the "right" people win the election. 8) --gary
Long run, prices will continue to decline as older pilots medical out and younger generation pilots are getting their licenses for the airline fast track and not for GA.
I have logged about 1300 dual given over the past 3 years, and I would say that prospective commercial vs GA guys was about 50-50...youtubers have actually brought a lot of people into the market...problem is that they have normal jobs and have no idea what it costs to actually keep flying and stay proficient...
There is always has been and always will pilots who pursuing airlines not GA which is the majority. The limiting factor for pilot buying aircraft is barriers to entry (required training and aircraft prices). If you are suggesting prices will decline due to too many airplanes for too few buyers, I disagree, but we will see - thanks for watching!
I am working towards airlines to be able to pay for a GA plane.
Nah, supply will continue to decline, so even if there are less pilots, the dwindling demand will keep prices up. Also, what do you think those airline track people dream of having when they get the money? Planes, cars, boats, etc. just because they’re on the “airline track”, doesn’t mean they’re not involved, or going to be involved in ga.
@@Spyke-lz2hl a big reason Airline pilots dont stay involved in GA are the inherent risks to their career flying in GA
If I was an airline pilot I would probably limit my GA exposure. Imagine having a minor issue in your GA plane as an airline pilot and having that now on your record.
Wish I was going with you, John from San Diego....
I know this will likely affect 2025 and beyond rather than 2024, but how do you think MOSAIC will impact the GA market long term once it's implemented?
Rich I’ve noticed the older aircraft models are being restored and with the cost of replacing flight school with more brand new models and I feel that the market will continue going forward for first time buyers
good work
Thank you!
I watched a video from Short Field posted a year ago of him getting stuck on top. Little bit of a nerve racking situation. Had to circle around and find that hole to dive through.
I'm sure that's a bad feeling! Thanks for watching.
You cancelled IFR once on top. For landing do you then start from scratch to get an IFR clearance? Or was that somehow built into the original flight plan?
After cancelling on top, have to get another clearance for the approach. Much more flexibility VFR on top than staying IFR to just fly around - thanks for watching!
I'm just learning, and am interested in an LSA. Been watching the chatter around MOSAIC and if I had money to buy a new LSA plane today, I'd hold off until MOSAIC is finalized. I guess that as it's currently written, it will pull a bunch of low-end aircraft into it's embrace, and double the speed, weight, and other specs for LSAs. But with prices doubling on a lot of crafts over the past 18 months or so, including new low-end crafts, affordability is going down rather than up, not to mention the cost to get a license and various certs going way up due to increased flight costs. So I think it's going to be a mixed bag this year; assuming MOSAIC passes substantially as-is towards the end of 2024, then 2025 will be be a break-out year.
Good Vid. General Aviation has priced it self completely into almost extinction. IN 70s middle class folks good fly an even own. Now its nothing but for the 1% elites mostly. used planes have gotten so stupidly expensive. Even kits, 20k worth of materials you have plane sales for 165k after. In contract you can get a Ford 2024 F350 fully loaded an a Huge RV To tow brand new. 4 times the materials an gadgets total cost about 160K. Obviously not number crunching but ya ll understand ...
Bonanza is indeed my aspirational plane just like you said. But as a low time PPL I'd just kill myself in it assuming I could even get insured, lol. Me and a buddy just bought a 2008 model DA40 to get our instrument and commercial in. Fun, flies like a dream and the GFC700 is eye opening. But yeah, the Bo. Here is to hoping the supply side on the Bo opens up a little as the boomer gen starts losing medicals.
Have fun and thanks for watching!
Have you seen any Kodiak 900s? Do you think there is a market for that luxury Kodiak?
I’ve been watching the 900. My thinking is it won’t be a very high volume airplane, faster than the 100 but still not that fast. We will see.
How do I get this job! Love it Rich.
Rich, do you have any "predictions" for the Panthera certification ?? Do you have any idea on the status of the GA8 Airvan ?? {it was supposedly bought out by an Indian company - as in the COUNTRY of India} and I read somewhere production would be in North America. Have you ever sold a GA8 ?? Then one more thing: any "predictions" for the Delta Hawk engine ?? We heard last year the Delta Hawk 180HP 2 stroke Diesel {with splash oil system and water cooled} was supposed to change general aviation history - WELL it's 8 months later and where are all the conversions ??
My predictions :
Panthera will never get certified.
Airvan will likely never be produced in any volume and will eventually never be produced again. Never sold one but have some experience with them.
Delta Hawk will struggle to gain any market traction. Perhaps if 100 LL gets more pressure from Feds, which would help them.
@@FlyingwithRich Thanks - kind of a bummer if your Panthera prediction is true and as much as I hate to admit it, you're probably correct because how many times has people like AV WEB told us "The Panthera is expected to be certified next year" then the next year comes and goes and they go through the same drill over and over. But here's the thing: if the Cirrus is certified, I'm not getting why the Panthera is not certified because I have been told the reason Cirrus installed BRS is because Cirrus' are hard to recover from spin. Yet the Panthera spin test is on You Tube - they went 10 rotations and recovered perfectly and on top of that, Panthera still has BRS. That's why I'm puzzled why it's not been certified yet. Is there another issue ??
It’s a myth that Cirrus had to use a parachute because they couldn’t recover from spins during certification. Cirrus aircraft were designed with a parachute as a safety enhancement as part of the aircraft from the beginning. Certifying aircraft is very expensive, and difficult. I’m not that familiar with certification history on the Panthers, but based on my experience, lack of certification at this point is probably due to money. They also have to be considering how many they will sell and at what price if they do certify it. I wish I could be more optimistic about it, and I hope they do certify it an sell a bunch of them, but I don’t see it.
@@FlyingwithRich Yea but Rich, you have to admit the Panthera is really cool looking LOL !! As a sidenote, it appears they can be procured as experimental aircraft and Right Rudder Aviation in Florida is the Pipistrel dealer. Apparently they have a Panthera demo. However as far as renting aircraft from Right Rudder Aviation, there are only Alpha Trainers, and J3 Cub. - Now back to the Cirrus - I'm really glad you shared that because that gives me more confidence in the Cirrus. When I had heard that "myth", I was really puzzled because it looks like a normal SE airplane, and it should be able to recover from a spin just like any other SE aircraft. After all, we're not having to deal with VMC roll like on a twin, and like Juan Browne harps on all the time, when a twin is in a spin, you have the engine mass to overcome and the rudder may run out of effectiveness - which is a totally different issue - but on jet airliners, the rudders are absolutely massive and I was told in B737 mechanic school that the main reason for that big rudder is engine out, which puzzles me why the Baron has such a itty bitty rudder.
With a return to normal interest rates, the new LSA MOSAIC options will be trainers, Insurance cost, those older planes will not be sold. Price pressure will drive all planes down. You will see them fall, just like housing this year.
Hey Rich does ocr help clients acquire hangars
Depends on where you are - we have contacts around the country.
@@FlyingwithRich that’s great because it makes no sense to buy a plane without a hangar first and there’s such a shortage plus long wait times too.
A general observation about the GA fleet... it's getting pretty old.
You talking about the pilots or the planes?
@@diernosajBoth…
I got my commercial, instrument airplane and my rotorcraft ratings right there at Long Beach, Daughtery field. Moved on to other things and places. Not sure I like what has happened to LGB. One thing for sure GA is not what it used to be.
Can you share what kind of Camera mount you use on the wing?
Too hard to listen to with ATC audio mixed in. Will try u again in the future.
I can’t wait till when you get to test fly the new Beechcraft Denali
We'll see if I get the chance.
@@FlyingwithRich you probably will where you’ve represented the brand for about thirty years,along with Cessna
As a new pilot i am lucky to have access to my father's bonanza f33a, in which I am doing ifr training. I will restore this plane due to high cost of new and used market but what is killing GA - insurance. I understand I am new pilot (170 hrs), but the fact insurance is restricting me to no solo flight unless i pay a$12k premium is ridiculous. That was the lowest quote. 9 other companies wouldn't even write a policy.
Insurance is definitely expensive now, but at least it is available!
Insurance is not required by the government in order to fly. Banks and hangar owners often require it, however.
All I can say is I use to own a 77, 172 and a 62 Comanche and I should have held on to at least one of the. I can’t believe what happened with the prices.
Agree - recent spike was significant. Let’s see where values go from here!
The Super Decathlons prices have risen
Is too much regulation a factor in GA plane availability? Or, how would you get more GA planes into the market?
Get rid of the lawyers
I don't think it's Regulation, just the same old argument of Cost vs. Profitability; guy's got an airplane due for its Annual, and he spent a lot on the plane but $$ is tight. Should he get the Annual done then Sell, or Sell pre Annual and take a hit on the Price?
How to get more air frames on the Market? That's a hard one if the manufacturers aren't building them.
@@cleekmaker00 _"How to get more air frames on the Market? That's a hard one if the manufacturers aren't building them."_ Well that is the thing. Automobile manufacturers have done the same thing. They stopped building inexpensive vehicles and instead only want to build higher profit vehicles that less people can afford, the result of this is a currently crashing car market.
GA is a little different but from this outsider viewpoint it looks very similar. People can look up a RUclipsr by the handle of Car Questions Answered. He frequently talks about the dynamics that have affected the market.
It is all very interesting how companies have become so short sighted that they refuse to build for a broader spectrum of buyers. I don't think it is exactly the same in GA but I suspect there is some under tones of that.
Regulation certainly drives prices up which makes aircraft ownership out of reach for the masses. There is also the significant commitment it takes to become a pilot, and then stay current - so demand has been always will be low. The lower the demand the higher the prices the higher the prices the lower the demand, and so goes the continually shrinking GA market. It wont' take much demand to soak up the low volume of new aircraft production, and then the good used market, so that's why I think prices will continue to rise.
I wonder if Textron / Beechcraft have ever looked into Just-in-Time Manufacturing. Like maybe if they found customers willing to place larger down payments, they could set up to build on demand a Bonanza in 6 months to 1 year. Japan Airlines used to train their pilots out of Napa, CA and they used only Bonanzas. Cheers.
Textron doesn't care about the piston market. They make more money on a hand full of latitudes than Cirrus does on selling one piston a day.
If you order a new Bonanza right now you can expect a 4th quarter 2025 delivery date with a base price of 1.3 million. The top requested add ons are SVT, TAS, and XM for another $35,200
Pretty reasonable turn around, actually.
@Craneman4100w They are building so few new Bonanzas - easy to quote long lead times.
fewer dollars chasing the existing inventory as too much uncertainty exists with this election and the conflicts affecting oil prices. My $.02 So if you, from a brokers perspective, see an uptick it's prolly flat on balance.
Election years are always uncertain - we will see how 24 plays out...thanks for watching!
Your mic kept cutting out every 5 sec. @FlyingwithRich
Yeah - we have to fix that. Audios is a struggle for us!
Is there a reason that controllers cant give a VFR pilot on the top, clearance or vectors to get below the clouds. What's the resolution for that pilot if he calls an emergency for fuel. And what are the consequences to him if he is does call an emergency?
No reason - we do it all the time, just have to get an IFR clearance. SoCal is very accommodating on that type of clearance. I assume the pilot was not Instrument rated or the aircraft was not instrument capable or getting a clearance would have been an easy solution. Declaring an emergency would change the game, and give the pilot and ATC more options, although not a good situation to be in. I don't think too many consequences other than talking to the FAA and extra paperwork.
I understand Dan gryder says declaring an emergency involves no paperwork or other consequences. People end up dead from being hesitant from pride or fear
The current manufacturers want to sell Million $++ planes and very few of them(as a % of total fleet in operation). At our local GA airport I would estimate that over 90% of the GA planes are owned by people over 60 years old. At the present time and in the last 10 years I don’t see the trend of younger pilots buying airplanes in any significant way to change the percentage. Don’t know what the back-fill percentage will be when these pilots age out with medical or death. The top 10% of the population based on wealth will always be the top 10%. :) In the end the law of supply and demand will solve the issues as it always does.
I don’t disagree, but I definitely see more younger people at airshows, etc than I did say 25 years ago - still not enough but at least it doesn’t seem as tilted to me as it used to be. A non-scientific measure, but my observation. You are correct on supply and demand!
What is is attached to the leading edge of the left wing?
“Bonanza Wedge”. Aerodynamic device to increase control in slow flight/stall.
I think rates need to come down. Prospective buyers like me who saved up to finance a plane now have to either accept a higher monthly payment or continue saving for a larger down payment. And, with higher prices driving higher insurance premiums and with hangar scarcity driving higher rents (and also the hassle of finding a hangar in the first place), it just makes it an easier decision to choose to wait.
Definitely - strike quick when rates come down as that will likely bring more buyers (like you) to the market, inventory will tighten and prices will climb. Thanks for watching!
@@FlyingwithRich yea, definitely. Although, I don’t know that buyers like me have a huge impact on the market. If that were true, prices would have come down a while ago simply because of the rates. I think that entry level GA is being dominated by training providers who are grabbing anything they can to build up fleets (or start completely new flight schools). Rates won’t affect them a ton because they often require financing from their career students, which generates reliable cash flow that also pays for the fleet. With high demand on cheap training aircraft, prices went way up at the bottom of the market. Buyers like me now don’t want to pay a high price for a basic aircraft, so we look to something faster, more powerful, more useful load, etc, which takes the demand that would have gone to the bottom of the market and pushes it upmarket and creates the same problem for those segments. So, my take is that so long as the pilot shortage is still driving flight training, prices will not come down no matter what else happens. But, if rates do come down, buyers like me can still get something reasonable, albeit a less fancy plane now-but still a plane!
I think the GA market will diminish. I think more people are not going the old certified relics ( Cessnas and Pipers older than 1980) route but for a new experimental (ie; Sling,RV,etc.). Why pay $300k for a 1980........(44 y/o mind you) when you can have a brand new experimental with latest technology engine (some with FADEC), glass and all modern avionics for about the same price? Less and less people can afford a new $1.1 million Cirrus or most other new planes. And Diamond will continue to have a strong footing with their latest technology planes (ie; DA50).
What experimental aircraft would match a Cessna 206 or Piper Cherokee 6 in performance/capability? What technological advancements do they have? What are the advantages of FADEC on a Single Engine Piston Aircraft? Most certified GA how have “Glass” or can be retrofitted with “Glass”. I’m a fan of Experimental Aircraft, but if you look at the size of the fleet and market, certified aircraft are a much larger (4X) part of General Aviation. The most successful kit manufacturer is in bankruptcy. Cirrus has highest production of any aircraft in any class (SR22T) at north of $1M - so that proves that low cost isn’t the driver of volume and popularity in General Aviation.
GA trend is for wealthy people and business ownership. Ownership of the small GA certified planes is out of reach, forcing experimental aircraft as an alternative. Fewer people will afford a pilot license for recreation, and old airplanes become less desired to own and rent. The trend is for upscale demographics, and fewer new GA plane delivery, leaving only wealthy users going forward. The only hope to own a plane now is experimental and few pilots have the desire or skills to build one.
Welcome to the post plandemic business model. Businesses figured out they could make less of something and create more demand while lowering costs. But then... Increase the price of the product. Designed inflation.
Unfortunately with the tax benefits disappearing may buyers who use their aircraft for business purposes are going to think twice about the purchase. The tax benefits were designed to save aviation manufacturers. Doubt there are a lot of people who just want to burn expensive holes in the sky.
Depreciation for aircraft is a permanent deduction - the “bonus’ depreciation allowing for the bulk of the depreciation to be taken in year 1 is temporary and running out. But, there is a bi-partisan bill to re-instate Bonus depreciation. Lot’s of businesses chose not to take bonus depreciation even when it’s available.
My 1968 Baron is not an “investment” so however the market value fluctuates from year to year makes little difference to me. The only thing that matters is the fun factor which has never been lost. These legacy airplanes were built with craftsmanship and quality that could not be duplicated today. Maintain them well, keep the avionics updated and they will serve you well for a very long time.
Well said!
Recovery Parachutes on all possible planes or BAN non-essential GA. ENOUGH.
Very hard to listen to you with the ATC talking.
Agree - I should have shut down flight following - next year! Thanks for watching!
3rd
Rich, I think, if such a experienced professional market player like you are, speaks about the aviation market GA, you should not do this up in the air, always getting disturbed by the radio talking. It’s for sure highly interesting, listening to your opinion. Much better and not so annoying, if you make a hangar talk without all this radio bla bla bla in between your words. ❤😊Thanks 🙏🙋♂️
Good feedback and I think you are right - next year on the ground. Only problem is my thoughts are much clearer in the air! Thanks for watching.
It's your brand to be bantering in the air - keep it up!! Doing it on the ground would just seem, well, weird. Just turn down com1 a bit@@FlyingwithRich
Ack! And change his brand? Blasphemy!
@ericsd55 will do!
@@FlyingwithRich ok. Than we put you in the back of the beech king air, circling around catalina island and you can talk in the air…😂🙋♂️🥰
Cirrus SR 22 GTS is the plane !!!
My predictions for GA in 2024: I still cant start with my PPL :(
2025!
Bonanza is the best GA small plane.
Cant listen to you and atc at the same time. You're trying to be too cool, see ya.
I can agree about too much ATC interference but you lose me on, “trying to be too cool,” see ya
Trump 2028
Second term date or death date?
Terrible video.!! Impossible to follow along with so many distractions. Sorry, will try you again though.
You mentioned the Bonanza, a plane from 1945. All things being equal, that incredible stagnation in GA will continue, made worse by gentrification. Ever older ever more expensive planes. No one is thinking progressively, there is only comfortable greed and sheepish acceptance. There is huge potential in GA, especially with today's manufacturing tech. Turbofan jet in particular as they are surprisingly fuel efficient, people just forget that they are exclusively used on 5 ton buses. Meanwhile Eclipse 550 has better fuel economy than a Baron 58.
The only saving grace is that we might get UFO disclosure in 2024 if israel doesn't ruin the world first with their psychopathic evil. With the help of dear old USA.