Saving my WC as well, but since I have 2 forced transfers to make (Guehi and Sabitzer) I'll be relying heavily on a few results to go my way such as Portugal (4 in my team) vs France (1 in my team). Still reasonably positioned at exactly 30K, feeling the QF could be make or break.
You need to bear in mind that betting odds change because of the markets and where money has been placed not necessarily because the underlying probability has shifted
Opta Analyst is a data-driven predictor, not a betting market. I look at team models, and a share of different 'shaved' market odds to help with decision making.
Strong wildcard team mate! I really like the idea of high recovery defenders. I currently have Pickford & Costa // Le Normand, Cucurella, Guehi, Cancelo & Van Dijk // Gundogan, Musiala, Williams, Fernandes & Sabitzer // Kane, Mbappe & Morata. Im stuck between a wildcard this gw or the next one. Without a WC, my transfers will be Guehi, Sabitzer & Morata to De Vrij, Simons/Bellingham & Gakpo. That would give me a decent squad, but im worried about the heavy weight of Spain and Portugal against difficult opponents. Would you recommend a WC or not? Btw im so happy to see how fast you're gaining subs during this tournament! Absolutely deservered!
First week I've landed a semi decent captain on my first match so I didn't swap to gakpo. I've had to captain a final day player in every gw before this one. Typical.
Probably a silly question, but will you be making a video about your own selection (i.e. without using your WC) or are you going to cover that in the pre-match vid?
Hey Fran is De Vrij purely a budget option or do you believe he is the 2nd best Dutch defender? I’ve seen quite a liking towards Ake in terms of defenders for the Netherlands. Edit: Who would you play in goal between Verbruggen and Pickford? I have many bigger issues in my team so I am unfortunately unable to solve this problem.
im kinda regretting using my wildcard as 3/4 matches are pretty much 50/50 but hoping this pays off: 2 england 1 swiss 4 dutch 0 turkye 1 german 3 spain 2 france 2 portugal i can probably deal with 5 players eliminated but any more and im kinda screwed so im pretty much betting on spain and netherlands. what do you think?
I have to remove 2 players (Guehi,Sabitzer) ... as for 3rd to replace Gundo for Musiala or in attack to add Gakpo and move Kane/Morata/Mbappe ? Of the 3 I find Morata to have biggest challenge vs Ger.
I wiffed on the Dutch... still managed cool 92 points and 288 overall. Thinking of adding 3 Dutch players and moving Sabitzer, Guehi and possibly Mbappe and not playing the chip
Watch our for England- I don't think they will get past Switzerland. Swiss are the most organised team left in this tournament and they will not let England get more than 1-2 attempts.
I agree tactically the Swiss have been far superior, hence the point about my surprise to where data driven predictors are landing. But I still think that they're a strong robust teem and I wouldn't be surprised if their (England's) individual qualities might just get them through again
Most of the experts doubted Gakpo in this tournament. He was considered a low information pick. I bought into that BS and should have known better. Netherlands beat a worse team convincingly. Most of the big name teams havn't done this.
From a Dutchie, our most creative player, links up well with Gakpo. He is playing better every match and Koeman said he finally found his best position in the 10 and praised him. So looks like he is going to start against turkey a match where there will be plenty of open space for him
He's played well and gotten into good spots, which usually reap future returns. He takes some set pieces too. I don't really want to rehash xG and xA arguments all the time, so you do you
The guy in 7th place 'Chicken Tikka Musiala' forgot to put Gakpo, Van Dijk and Sabitzer on for his 1 pointers for the last day. He benched 19 points. He'd be 1st overall if he put them on. Wonder what went wrong with him. What a fool..
@@LT-mg1vs Well if you really are them, don't worry. I done way worse. 10 yrs ago I didn't put my lottery numbers down because there was no pen, so got Lucky Dip instead, and then they all got drawn. £36 million is slightly more important than a free trip to Qatar with no spending money..
Saving my WC as well, but since I have 2 forced transfers to make (Guehi and Sabitzer) I'll be relying heavily on a few results to go my way such as Portugal (4 in my team) vs France (1 in my team). Still reasonably positioned at exactly 30K, feeling the QF could be make or break.
QF and SF will deffo be make or break - I imagine we'll all have the same team by thee finals bar differential caps.
You need to bear in mind that betting odds change because of the markets and where money has been placed not necessarily because the underlying probability has shifted
What evidence do you have against market theory in this instance, money placed should = probability when looking at main betting exchanges
@emperk7 that isn't how betting odds work. If they were the same as probability then the bookies wouldn't make money
Those weren’t betting odds, they were probablities, such as those sites with players “predicted points”
Opta Analyst is a data-driven predictor, not a betting market. I look at team models, and a share of different 'shaved' market odds to help with decision making.
Strong wildcard team mate! I really like the idea of high recovery defenders.
I currently have Pickford & Costa // Le Normand, Cucurella, Guehi, Cancelo & Van Dijk // Gundogan, Musiala, Williams, Fernandes & Sabitzer // Kane, Mbappe & Morata. Im stuck between a wildcard this gw or the next one. Without a WC, my transfers will be Guehi, Sabitzer & Morata to De Vrij, Simons/Bellingham & Gakpo. That would give me a decent squad, but im worried about the heavy weight of Spain and Portugal against difficult opponents. Would you recommend a WC or not?
Btw im so happy to see how fast you're gaining subs during this tournament! Absolutely deservered!
Don't WC - I think you are still in a spot to save it.
Gakpo captain boosted me to top15k, malen is a great option now if he starts
Malen isn't consistent
First week I've landed a semi decent captain on my first match so I didn't swap to gakpo. I've had to captain a final day player in every gw before this one. Typical.
Malen WAS a great option, that chance is gone. No one went for him anyway.
Incredible, nice job on the cap
Probably a silly question, but will you be making a video about your own selection (i.e. without using your WC) or are you going to cover that in the pre-match vid?
yeah I definitely will
Ive moved up to second in the FPL Fran league.... no wildcard though so i excpect my run to come to an end!!!
Incredible matee!
was looking for this, ty
Thanks for watching!
Hey Fran is De Vrij purely a budget option or do you believe he is the 2nd best Dutch defender? I’ve seen quite a liking towards Ake in terms of defenders for the Netherlands.
Edit: Who would you play in goal between Verbruggen and Pickford? I have many bigger issues in my team so I am unfortunately unable to solve this problem.
I do think he is the 2nd best. Ake has worse mins too. Play Verbruggen
@@FPLFran Cheers Fran! Holding out my wildcard until the semis so just trying to make it through the week with a decent amount of points
Fran, would you say WC MD5 is better than WC MD6?
Really depends on the state of your team IMO - I would say no if you don't have more than 3-4 transfers max to do.
Who are you going to transfer in?
@@FPLFranbro I popped it without even considering my transfers I’m 124k itw am I cooked there’s a nasty forfeit on the line
Smashed it 10k total, 97 points this round. Rudiger captained, big hits from nico and riuz with guehi van dyke Pepe costa
Amazing job with Rudi cap. Well done on picking the CBs
who are you transferring out of your team?
3/4 of Morata, Sabitzer, Pedri, Guehi
have you actually locked in and used your wildcard chip or is this a hypothetical team for those like myself, who want to use WC? 😎
Hypothetical teams for those like yourself haha. Might use my wildcard based on the Spain lineup though!
I have somehow have the exact same draft just with some like for like swaps, such as Cancelo> Pepe and Ruiz>Rodri
Makes sense. I'm just feeling less attacking potential for Portugal here so hence recoveries prioritized.
How much points you lose to make more than 3 transfers? Is it even possible?
For each additional transfer you are penalized with a -4 pts
@Jittery_Cheese_ thanks guys! I think thats worth it in the end for 1/2 transfers!
I already made 3 transfers including bringing in Akanji but when I want to transfer him out the app counts it as 4 transfers. Is it normal or weird?
-4 per 1ft
im kinda regretting using my wildcard as 3/4 matches are pretty much 50/50 but hoping this pays off:
2 england
1 swiss
4 dutch
0 turkye
1 german
3 spain
2 france
2 portugal
i can probably deal with 5 players eliminated but any more and im kinda screwed so im pretty much betting on spain and netherlands.
what do you think?
Spain vs Germany will be close
I have three spanish players and 4 german players lol . Also three players from France
@@Coldcupcake yea im using wc also so if i were to do that im screwed regardless of who wins
@@cozmic_baller haha I have already used WC and LL in MD 2 and 3
@@Coldcupcake your even more screwed than me then… you think its more worth using points for transfers or just keep bench players out of the comp
I think you can. Obviously 1 English or Dutch upset and it's all wraps but most people are on a similar boat. You 'should' be fine.
Is it good to get williams rodri dumfries kounde and gakpo instead of Baumgartner sabitzer guehi cancelo and morata for a -8?
I'm not sure if that's worth a -8. Why take out Cancelo for a -4?
De vrij or kounde for this matchday?
de vrij
De Vrij
I have to remove 2 players (Guehi,Sabitzer) ... as for 3rd to replace Gundo for Musiala or in attack to add Gakpo and move Kane/Morata/Mbappe ? Of the 3 I find Morata to have biggest challenge vs Ger.
I had the exact same 2 players to take out as you. So I transferred Guehi, Sabitzer and Morata to VVD, Ruiz and Gakpo.
@@Vurawn410 have Ruiz from 1/16.
I'd go Gakpo from Morata for sure
Hey Fran, what do you think about Yamal on wildcard?
Can work - but who do you drop?
I wiffed on the Dutch... still managed cool 92 points and 288 overall.
Thinking of adding 3 Dutch players and moving Sabitzer, Guehi and possibly Mbappe and not playing the chip
Mbappe is a tough call
What a gw. Makes sense to go full dutch
Who to captain in Spain vs Germany
I'd captain a Spanish midfielder
Should i keep morata or take a hit for someone better?
Wouldn't take out for a hit.
The biggest decision I have to make is if I should switch from Morata to Kane. Morata has been a liability so far. Any thoughts?
I don't mind the switch if you have the luxury.
@@FPLFran thank you for the reply. Yes, I have 2 players I must transfer and then one extra. I am thinking of trading Morata or Gundogan
Watch our for England- I don't think they will get past Switzerland. Swiss are the most organised team left in this tournament and they will not let England get more than 1-2 attempts.
I agree tactically the Swiss have been far superior, hence the point about my surprise to where data driven predictors are landing. But I still think that they're a strong robust teem and I wouldn't be surprised if their (England's) individual qualities might just get them through again
Who is on the bench
Just line people up by day of play
Kane or Yamal?
Honestly would have said Kane so if you went Yamal, kudos
@@FPLFran Chose Yamal fortunately. He and Gakpo have been heroes. Kane and Mbappe not so much.
Do you recommend using limitless this gw? Can you do a draft pls
yes if you held it - I don't think my LL draft would be too different to this to be quite honest.
Why Rodri and not Ruiz? Makes absolutely no sense to me.
France unlikely to concede much and rodri better for recovery has some threat and motm
@@nicspan4901 Spain are playing Germany, not France
@@nicspan4901 A potential cagey match is of course a good point, but it´s a bit boring and defensive.
Pen share quite important in the factoring
Most of the experts doubted Gakpo in this tournament. He was considered a low information pick. I bought into that BS and should have known better. Netherlands beat a worse team convincingly. Most of the big name teams havn't done this.
Well, in fairness, Spain have. But fair points made on Gakpo, he's been brilliant.
Ruiz insisted of Rodri?
You can if you want to
Why Pepe and not Mendes?
Pepe is a Ball recovery machine and nailed
@@nicspan4901 I would claim that Mendes has a higher assist potential and has been one of the best defenders so far.
Ball recs. And worse attacking game for Portugal means you can reley on the former more than assists
What has Simons done for us lately? Not much.
From a Dutchie, our most creative player, links up well with Gakpo. He is playing better every match and Koeman said he finally found his best position in the 10 and praised him. So looks like he is going to start against turkey a match where there will be plenty of open space for him
@@nicspan4901 Not saying he is a bad player, just not so sure he is such a good fantasy player.
He's played well and gotten into good spots, which usually reap future returns. He takes some set pieces too. I don't really want to rehash xG and xA arguments all the time, so you do you
The guy in 7th place 'Chicken Tikka Musiala' forgot to put Gakpo, Van Dijk and Sabitzer on for his 1 pointers for the last day. He benched 19 points. He'd be 1st overall if he put them on. Wonder what went wrong with him. What a fool..
Simple,Must have been busy with his life
That’s me and haven’t been able to sleep ever since. Thanks man!😂😂😂
@@LT-mg1vs Well if you really are them, don't worry. I done way worse. 10 yrs ago I didn't put my lottery numbers down because there was no pen, so got Lucky Dip instead, and then they all got drawn. £36 million is slightly more important than a free trip to Qatar with no spending money..
@@PEGGLOREouch sorry mate
Game takes too much daily micromanagement for a fun time of year aha
Yamal over Mbappe. Mbappe´s nose inury and mask is quite clearly bothering him.
Fair if you wanna go there
Got 63 points 😂had no good captains lol just rewards ppl who stick safe
Ah that's a same. Tbf I saw some late Gakpo captaincies pay off but yeah the captaincy swings can be brutal
@@FPLFran yeah man😂u think Pedro starts
Pedri
I'm sorry bro but England will lose against Switzerland 😂
I wouldn't doubt that