EXCLUSIVE: Epic Tesla Analyst Debate Dan Ives and Gary Black
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- Опубликовано: 20 дек 2024
- Today’s show features two top Tesla experts: Dan Ives from Wedbush Securities and Gary Black from The Future Fund. Both are Tesla bulls, but their price targets differ-Dan forecasts $515 with a $650 bull case, while Gary predicts $380, compared to the $275 average. We’ll explore their insights, similarities, and differences in analyzing Tesla’s future.
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Disclaimer: All content on this channel is for discussion and illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice or recommendation to buy or sell any securities. All views expressed are personal opinion as of date of recording and are subject to change without responsibility to update views. No guarantee is given regarding the accuracy of information on this channel. Neither host or guests can be held responsible for any direct or incidental loss incurred by applying any of the information offered. Author is invested in multiple Humanoid companies and is long TSLA and other stocks at time of original video publish date.
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What are your thoughts on the slow roll out of Tesla insurance? Do you think Tesla insurance is required for level 4 and beyond into robo taxi?
Incredible get-together! Way to pull the talent Herbie!
Thank you JD!
You’re doing well to get these great people on your show. Well done Herbert.
Best episode to date. More of these please. Jeff, Alexandria, Gary, and Dan together would be fire.
"Give me a demand model"
You can't model a disruption in advance, otherwise it would be expected and therefore not a disruption. You can only see the potential and model a realistic production forecast and cost.
Yea
Well said
Well, here you can assume that Tesla robo taxis take significant percentages of certain types of travel miles. Long commutes, robo taxis are going to take a large percentage, but if you are just going two miles to work it doesn’t make much difference if you drive yourself or not. Parent driving their kids to band or soccer or whatever, taking them to school, robo taxis will dominate as parents can then just stay home or at work. Drives to dense urban areas with limited expensive parking, robo taxis take a large share of those trips.
So it IS possible to look at various kinds of travel needs and see what percentage of travel miles each is and have reasonable assumptions about how much Tesla robo taxis will be used for each category and then arrive at a ballpark for percentage of total travel miles that Tesla robo taxis will take. I have not done this, but then I work in a call center and am not an “analyst.” Unless someone wants to hire me, because I guarantee I can do a much better job at it than any “analyst” I have seen.
You don’t know what demand is? It’s not disruption. It’s what Gary did in the beginning when he made his evaluation by giving Tesla a portion of ride sharing revenue
Jeff hit it right on the head with the way FSD efficacy is measured. My wife has a disastrous effect on how my own intervention actions are counted - to the point where I now only use FSD V13 while driving solo. V13 is so impressive that I rarely intervene and most of those are probably comfort related and I can attribute that to having the same reaction when someone else is manually driving me around. I suspect, as I learn the FSD driving style, the number of those interventions will decline. For those of you old enough to remember the gas shortages of the 70’s, driving in a car pool was always most stressful when a new driver was added to the pool. 😊😊😊
I do remember the shortage, but the "Pool" part I missed out on I was still driving on the School buses in those days, lol.
That was genius man bringing them together thank you !!!!!!
Was a real epic debate. Jeff Lutz added tremendous context and knowledge. Tesla investors should love this. I definitely did.
@ now that i finish watching i see that Jeff got challenged by Gary multiple times niceee. Please do bring on the platform with opposite voices we get more value from this instead of having super Ultra bulls all the time! Cheers man good job for sure
Gary: "Give me something I can work with as an analyst", "Give me a math equation"......... Isn't that your job Gary?
He’s Confidently wrong, if you can’t understand the value of a car that can save you hours a week and cost less then your missing it
Wow, Jeff came out of the gate firing bullets of solid knowledge with confidence. His approach was not only informative but also captivating. Underline the fact that Jeff's presentation was a masterclass in engaging an audience with both depth and clarity.
The energy and passion he displayed are inspiring to me. It's a reminder to me that when we share our knowledge with such zeal, we not only educate but also uplift those around us.
Let's celebrate this moment and encourage more open, idea-rich conversations like this for it was just so good.
thanks to both Gary and Dan for their thesis. It’s greatly appreciated.
Dan is right, after what happen to Nvidia is impossible to calculate those companies based on metrics Gary use.
Nobody realizes there is going to be a bot App Store. Breakfast app, lunch app, laundry app, walk to dog app, etc. etc.
Good point but I wouldn't say nobody. I am sure the brain trust at Tesla have considered this.
Uber driver, I feel that FSD take rate will absolutely go to 60%+ in the next year or two based on the rate of change I’m seeing on my Tesla model Y.
Just finished a 22 hour trip from Houston to Chicago with 0 interventions.
0! That's nuts!
I turned on a friend into buying Tesla shares (2020) with exactly a scenario as you described, except mine was from Montreal to Miami, and now you're proving it's happening and it works!!
@ it works, I didn’t plan the trip at all, just entered the address, had 0 range anxiety, and had the most enjoyable cross country trip I’ve ever had. I’ll never go back.
Can’t wait for ‘Unsupervised’ FSD.
Tesla community needs to be more humble and give more love to Gary. He's a bull from institution view managing a fund. If yall want to hash out on someone go to a bear or Ross lol. Or actually be humble and nice and don't trash talk anyone. We all more weathier now, be more humble and kind.
Institution view or not, he sell Tesla at the time it was mistake to sell.
@@forlan55 So what? Everyone has their own strategy. Being a Tesla investor doesn't mean "All-in" or buy and never sell. He's a shareholder. Hindsight is easy. At that very moment in time, it was a high. Selling in Feb 2020 was a good decision for a short period of time but of course hindsight would've been a mistake 4 years later.
@@averagemillennialinvestor It is important for me, if you want to make large money as Tesla Shareholder, Ron Baron approach it the way to go.
@@forlan55 Perfect, then invest in his fund. Or follow him. Don't harass Gary for his investment strategy, not saying you do, just Tesla investors in general. You do you, be humble. Be happy for how Tesla has made you wealthy. Sometimes getting every penny is not for all. Sometimes people have to sell for their own personal reasons. Gary aside, if individuals have to sell, let them, they have their own reasons. Be HUMBLE and stop juding how others invest, especially people who are actually bullish on Tesla.
I agree 1000%.
Gary was solid and factual, and I believe we should take his case as a very safe base case, knowing that it's only up from here.
Best show to date, Herbert. Thank you!!
NITSA looks to have already streamlined for self-driving, putting it on the companies to self-regulate! Bam!💥
That really was epic. I can’t recall having two analysts discuss their valuation processes, especially with a unicorn like Tesla.
Great point about insurance rate reductions offsetting FSD cost
I will not drive without FSD, BUT, I shut it off three times this morning driving to Boston Logan Airport, because it was so annoying. It makes no allowance for actions that trigger road rage. Sometimes it just will not keep up with traffic, and it just changes lanes too much, even in "chill" mode. I am 81 and I use it almost always but at times it drives me to shut it off.
Awesome show - great panel!!!!
My father in laws score went to 100 and Tesla insurance went down nearly the same and now pays for FSD. Jeff is correct….
Gary’s target of $380 is reasonable in every way but he always stays behind and raises after the stick goes up.
Jeff's description in the possible bundling of FSD + Auto-insurance is quite fascinating.
Tesla FSD takes rates will rise astronomically
This is one of the best discussions I’ve ever witnessed regarding Tesla❤❤
This was a master class by Jeff Lutz. Thank you, Jeff.
What happens when the energy battery storage is larger than the car market..where's that in the model?
Is that because the car went down so much?
What a panel!!! Thank you Herbert!
Very impactful point by Jeff on the $ value of FSD. I also have Tesla insurance and use FSD all of the time to achieve a safety score of 100. This really does cut the cost of insurance by $1000 per year, and this alone justifies the cost of FSD. Friends allege that it’s no fun when you can’t drive yourself - but I disagree!
Just add up all the hours spending in the car without driving and calculate what that is worth to you? The longer the drive the more liberating/valuable it is.
Thanks Gary and Dan and Jeff and Herbert ... it is nice to see/hear your reflections/ideas/ ... and relaxed humorous banter ...
This community is blessed by the access provided through Brighter to the incredible knowledge the guests are willing to share with us. Thanks to Gary, Dan and Jeff for their willingness to have this important conversation recorded for the rest of us to consider. Much respect.
Great listen! Thanks for bringing them together!
Gary makes a lot of good points. The problem with Gary's approach to me is if you wait for the product to prove itself and is in the real world making money..... It's too late The price has gone through the roof. In my view you have to take a certain amount of calculated risk to take advantage of the technology and the CEO that has proven himself over and over again. If he can land a rocket the size of a 20-story farm silo between two chopsticks and shuttle astronauts back and forth to the space station among many other incredible things he is not going to have any problem proving that robotaxis are for real and Optimus will be for real.
Great podcast!
WOW 💥 Excellent format... KUDOS to the PANEL for their PERSPECTIVES ❗
Echo Jeff experience with Tesla insurance. My Tesla m3p started at $160 a month with a default safety score of 90. My third bill was $84 with a safety score of 99. Never paid this little insurance ever in the past 25 years. I use FSD 50% of the time on V12 . Not totally confident yet, but looking forward to v13.
Outstanding debate, Herbert! Many thanks to all three of your guests.
Go Herbert!! Always interesting!!
Wow, Jeff is killing it! What a mind...
Its stunning these ANALysts are denying their customers this once in a lifetime opportunity. But I didnt watch the whole video.
Wow! This is a historic piece! Four people I worship debating! Thank you! Thank you! Thank you!!!
Old people don’t want to drive.
47:43 “the two of you are one of the people [that help us understand analysts and see how to better view stock evaluation]” Classic and true
GREAT WORK 🥇 ORCHESTRATING THIS HERBERT 💪❤
Great debate, let's get them again in 6 months time and review their forecasts.
I love that FSD will parallel parking for me while traffic waits for me. That one feature is worth paying for. I am not stressing and rushing.
Gary assumes 26% growth of regular Tesla's for the next 10 years. Those regular Tesla makes say 6000 in profit for a 1 time sale. Yet a robotaxi will make 50k a year for 10 years or 500k total profit. Which production will Tesla focus on going forward ? The answer is simple. Plus a single robotaxi will take about 5 regular cars off the road so Tesla gets to much higher replacement levels of ice vehicles 5 times faster. Gary is not factoring in a 100x higher profit potential of 1 robo taxi vs 1 regular Tesla. Elon knows this. Making regular teslas will grow a little over the next 10 years but the production of robotaxis will be the explosive growth. At 100x more profit and 5 times faster replacement of ice cars , robotaxis will be their ENTIRE focus. Bank on it
Love having Gary back on , he’s been getting a bad rap of late. Dan did so well to just let Gary explain his side. Leaving out Optimus and Autonomy appears odd, but it helps us all understand how much more Gary’s (and other more traditional analysts) target will jump once the $ are earned in bots and autonomy. Great show!
I love hearing Gary's points of view. We need a bull that is more conservative in his projections .
Amazing get-together!!! Thank you!! This channel is truly valuable!
Great show Herbert ! Gary perspectives are interesting !
Fantastic discussion with best-in-class analysts. Thank you, Herbert.
Impressive show. Most don’t appreciate the social by intelligence it takes to convey pure analytics in a meaningful way. Tip of the hat.
This guy Gary hasn't being fair with Tesla. He spoke in a manner with a negative outlook.
Way to go Herbert that was a great podcast! I really like the direction you are going in with your podcast..... Keep up with everything that is going on with Tesla in a one stop podcast! Everything you need to know in one place!
Super great interview!
Best ever discussion.
EXTREMELY VALUABLE thought exercise. THANK YOU HERBERT for facilitating this! Great POVs and insights from Jeff Gary Dan. I have only been hodl TSLA for 3.5 yrs and will hodl till 2031 then gradually sell shares to supplement retirement...grateful.😊
I live a 45 minute drive from Chicago and would never pay uber/lift to take me. However, if there was a safe, private and cheap Cybercab offering, I would take it for every Chicago visit and probably visit more often. The TAM will increase.
Incredible guests! Very impressed with your show.
Very good show. I appreciate hearing Gary’s very rational reasons for his evaluation.
you cant make a math equation for something that doesnt exist yet gary, we cant know yet because it doesnt exist yet, so we have to make logical assumptions.
Watched the whole thing. Immediately clicked when I saw Dan in the title 😂
That easily could’ve been a two hour show
Very good info and discussion
In addition, what example of a respectful and intelligent exploration of different points of view
lol, I was just imagining having Optimus in the MBL throwing pitches at 125 mph, how crazy would that be?
Thanks Gary and Dan. Wonderful update.
Wall Street is revenue and earnings. And computer algorithms.
The company has 100 thousand GPU. A very different company from a year ago.
Huge get, congratulations.
You can't look at motorola flip phone TAM in 2014, and figure out iphone TAM by saying it will be twice that TAM with 25% market share. Then you miss the iphone moment.
Thank you!
Love this!
Thank you so much for pointing out waymo's intervention numbers can't be trusted in the same way that Teslas are being reported that they ought to be required to report anytime a human makes a decision for the car to continue or stop or turn or do anything that should count as an intervention and I'm so glad that was brought up with Gary cuz he does use that number and so do other analysts and they use that as like a benchmark when it's total BS it needs to be brought down and brought into reality that okay it's much less than that because these other things that are going on behind the scenes that waymo is not sharing if they were required to share it then everybody see like oh well it's much less. Absolute terrific interviews and discussion today everybody Great job
Dan is a pumper, Gary is actually trying to valuate a stock... nonetheless good video coming from the tesla community and Herbert, provides some grounding to the crazy rally happening in the stock.
Great show today.
Great content!!!
Good stuff man. Subscribed!
My brain is with Gary, my sixth sense is with Dan
I agree with the analysis. But it was a misuse of the idiom "jump the shark".
Herbert - I haven’t heard anyone factor in FSD for senior that has eye issues driving at night (to stay independent) and for elderly that doesn’t want to lose their freedom being unable to drive (slower and other risk factors). These generations are smart enough to operate smart phones, iPad & laptops 😂
The transition to FSD shouldn’t have any issues especially when they want to keep their safety & most of all FREEDOM!!
Great episode. Gary makes some good points. I think FSD take rate will be 80% when it is unsupervised. That will be the chat gpt moment and everyone will want a Tesla.
Great video!!! Honestly if I wasn’t presently driving on FSD V13 I would be on Gary’s side. But V13 is the jam.
FSD in Asia and Africa ,India ,Bengladesh for exemple can be very chaotic sincepeople drive very differently with motorcycles.
The cars are fairely the same on V10-12-13, but the performance of FSD was exponential. No coding. The rate of improvement will slowdown since the fleet will find less and less ocasion that never happen. There will always be new things, like a landslide or airplane crash on the road.
I am a 5 star Uber Driver who heavily uses V12 on my AI 3 Model 3. Once robotaxi goes live in Austin (likely late 2025), I will get my AI 4 retro fit and scale this model by leasing more Teslas.
I’d be curious to know if they see autonomous FSD and Optimus as recurring revenue streams? In other words, sell the car or robot and then charge an annual or monthly fee for the software? That makes sense to me but I’ve heard otherwise.
HERBERT! EPIC GET TOGETHER!!!
Epic show indeed!
Gary, you are not bearish. You are using rational analysis. Even disruptive companies have limits in increasing profit.
Dan, catch phrase, Ives it awesome. He brings Jersey to Wall Street. I don't agree with Gary on quite a few things but props, he models out to 2030 and DCFs from there. What do most analysts guess out to? End of the quarter?
Arkinvest detailed the TAM expansion already as a function of price.
Gary is massively undervaluing robotsxi. Optimus, Semi, Cybertruck, Energy and new products.
He is the perfect reason why you should never make a CFO CEO.
Lack of vision.
Does he need lidar for vision? 🤣
As a Tesla owner, in terms of overall driving capability, technologies, and overall design, it would be difficult to match the Tesla's IMO
Even in the EV space, not all EVs are built the same, let alone the ICE cars
Thanks
GARY💪❤ raised excellent points ❗ HELPS us better understand the "Street..." thinking...
just watch Gary Black keep changing goalposts and say, "But then... what about..." to every answer
Super good. Call ur napkin math man ..mr warren. Hes the 1st guy who spoke about this. And insurance plus fsd is absolutely the way to cover liability
Dan/Jeff point out the future positives ... but Gary keep buyers feet safer on the ground with the present reality cautions ...that should affect your price targets... conclusions/interpretations ... casting your bets ... ... yes you can buy a big chunk of tesla, but there is big risk ... you shouldn't take more risk than you can handle ... diversify
I don’t like when the older gentleman talks because he says things like I can’t put the robots in because they don’t exist yet. Words are important so we’re all imagining these robots guys when you see a robot. Just delete the video cause they don’t exist yet.😂
Super! I loved it. Both are heavy-weight guys.
All Star cast !
When it's cold, dirty salted water freeze on the headlights and windshield. So will it on camera protectors.