A new model to predict the future frequency of short-duration extreme events

Extreme rainfall events of short duration, such as very intense ones that deliver a huge amount of water over last only a few minutes or at most an hour, are becoming increasingly fierce worldwide due to climate change.
In the future, these types of events are likely to occur more frequently.
However, it is tough to estimate the probability of rare precipitation events, such as storms that are called ‘100-year storms” because they have a recurrence interval of a century, meaning there's just a 1% chance of that event occurring in a given year.
A study led by Francesco Marra, a researcher at the Department of Geosciences at the University of Padova, in collaboration with the Department of Statistic Sciences and the University of Lausanne, introduced a temperature-dependent model for analyzing the frequency of future short-lived duration precipitation extremes.
The model, known as TENAX (TEmperature-dependent Non-Asymptotic statistical model for eXtreme return levels), utilized data from multiple meteorological stations in Switzerland. The findings, published in the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, demonstrate that the model has the potential to assess changes in sub-hourly extreme precipitation in a simpler, more accurate, and more credible manner than is currently feasible.