3 Reasons To Clone Mohnish Pabrai’s New Investment | Warrior Met Coal Stock Analysis
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- Опубликовано: 9 июн 2024
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Mohnish Pabrai just bought Warrior Met Coal (ticker: HCC), making it almost 15.5% of his US stock portfolio. I have to say, it is indeed an interesting company. In his book 'The Dhandho Investor' and in his lectures, Mohnish teaches us to be shameless cloners. So let's take a closer look at this company, analyze it, and assess its value to determine whether we should replicate his investment.
🗃 Content:
0:00 Warrior Met Coal
1:14 Past Results
2:08 Investors
3:16 Financial Health
4:22 Growth
5:49 Dividends
7:16 HCC Valuation
9:06 Is HCC a Buy?
#HCC #HCCstock #StockAnalysis
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DISCLAIMER:
I am not a financial adviser. This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Seek professional help before making any investment decision.
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You probably missed the main point why Pabrai bought shares of the company. Warrior Met Coal has started to develope it's Blue Greek project 2021 which will come online in 2026. The project will increase free cash flow by 80%. I think it's worth to not leave out the main reason why Pabrai invested here.
Thanks for the add!
Good analysis. Is Peabody Energy an alternative? They also mining coal for the steel industry
Something I forgot to mention here is that I too once had concerns about the world slowly moving away from coal towards cleaner energy sources. However, I became a little more confident after talking to one of my friends who works in the coal industry. He too mentioned about the difference between metallurgical coal and the coal used for general energy production. That made me confident in taking positions in AMR and ARCH.
Thanks for sharing that, and video about ARCH is coming pretty soon 😊
Really great channel!
Glad you enjoy it!
using DCF model - we come up with a fair value much below your numbers - base on future free cash flow - please include this in your model - the results will reflect it.
I bought AMR. Monish owns it too. It's done very well.
Love your work!
Thank you! That is very kind of you. 🙏
monish bougt it at 56usd, if ur fair value is around 70, then there is a problem, because monish doesnt loose his time with 20% perf return. he chases 10 baggers or above.
we miss something in the investment thesis here..what it is ?
Blue creek...
The thing with HCC, as far as I know, is that it's investing most of its earnings (thus the low FcF growth), in Blue creek (a Met Coal Mine) that is expected to boost by around 30-40% its production. If met coal stays over 200$ a ton (its over 300 now), they will keep printing money.
Thanks for sharing that. Very interesting. 👍
Yes, you’re correct. I’m speculating that they will start a massive share buyback program when fcf starts coming in from that mine.
The fcf is being reinvested into the blue creek mine. They’re self financing their own expansion. I’m hoping the mine starts producing 2025-2026.
Greta video, Coal is very undervalued in today;s market
Thank you. I'm glad you like it.
Great pick. I like it. EXCEPT the dividend.
Is there any cheap company around?
what is your formula for calculating ROIC?
I take it from QuickFS. If you want to know where I find all my data here is a video about it ruclips.net/video/fA-4LhJhW2U/видео.html Thanks for watching.
Nice analysis🙂
Thanks! 🙂 I'm glad you like it.
You need to account for blue creek mine slated to come online in 2026
should i buy?????????????????
FCF is down because they are building a huge new mine.
It’s a hard one but interesting one.
Why is it a hard one?
They should cut the dividend and just do buy backs
Your perfectly shaped head is looking great. Keep it up my friend
Thank you, I will 😂
Sir you apply a nice structured approach, but I have never seen you present an attractively priced company. You leave each episode disappointed....
pretty pricy market overall right now.
He did a good one on PayPal which was a possible buying opportunity.
I will buy hcc
Trading under a 3 P/E in an industry that isn't going away for over 50 years. No more analysis needed.
next time tell us what he paid
SW DCF has it overpriced by almost 100%, but they are expecting a significant shrinkage in FCF after 2026, and CF in 2033 at less than 80M (compared to expected 115M for 2024)