Fed is doing the same exact thing they did in 2007 and 2008. More cuts not less coming. and possibly an emergency cut like 2008. I was a day trader back then and all the fed focused on was inflation not unemployment just like today and they panicked when unemployment exploded. Fed never gets it right. Tariffs and unemployment gonna skyrocket with gov job cuts. Plus Japan probably will raise rates in February sending the market tumbling. From day fed start cutting rates, the average drawdown is 20% within 200 days, that’s April just like 2008. Not to mention debt issue, China building military up for Taiwan and housing market starting to head south.
The only difference being the US hadn’t just been through a bad period of inflation in 2008. It’s difficult to imagine the US population accepting a resurgence of inflation having already suffered 30%+ inflation over the last few years
That's what I was telling a co-worker 3yr ago . Like Bush to Obama, then finger-pointing saying look what they did . My only thing is what DOGE is going to have . But we may also have another covid like virus in China. Causing shipping problems .
You're forgetting the bank of Japan and China won't allow the dollar to go any higher. Look at august 9 last year. On top of that, tariffs won't mean shit if China decides to stop exporting to the US. And even if Trump does go with what he said, to be seen as always with Trump, a chinese EV on 100% tariff is still cheaper than an exploding Tesla. And recession has got to it sometimes... maybe not before markets pump again, but you can't just keep flying into the sun forever.
Interest rates = opportunity cost + RISK. That the market is pricing more risk in treasuries is not surprising given our debt levels AND potential to pay them down in a reasonable time (one 20yr generation?) with an economy drunk on gov't spending - not to mention an incoming admin that is pledging to strip that spending out of the budget. If the economy falters and unemployment rises even to 6-7%, tax receipts drop as does the US's ability to make any headway on that debt. With home sales stagnating, new home construction seeming to peak, unemployment will rise - the only question is how much and how bad will that spook the Fed & equity markets? If that 30yr makes a full measured move from that H&S pattern, we're looking at mortgage rates near 9%. Home sales will screech to a halt along with construction. The next few data points will make a big difference - look for increased vol for the next couple months and price swings all over the place. Thanks for all you do, Mike!
This is thé 1st time since 1987 10 y yield rises while fed cuts We could have a liké 1987 scénario Thé déficit trajectory is dangerous Lot of pension funds are underweighting us long term bonds By thé past Thé usa 10 y yield has never topped before reaching the top of thé fed funds Thé 10 y yield might reach 5.25/100 before forcing fed ton panic and cutting to 3/100 and even making a twist opération
Thank you for your great analysis. It would be pretty funny if the Fed hikes rates. I do not see that happening but that would cause serious chaos because the market was very focused on multiple expansion. IMHO, I think the bigger risk is recession with the 2/10 yield curve now sitting at a spread of 31 bps.
One thing is alarmi'g in thé market Thé cash allocation is at the record low level It happened in jan 02 and feb 2011 last time market crashed hard after Another thing concerning Thé us consumer optimism about Stocks Last time it was high was décembre 2017 Market performed bad Insiders have left the titanic Buffet cash allocation is at record high
I am.pretty convinced that all this uptrend on bonds is linked with japan ready to tighten very soon its yields....perhaps to keep the spreads unchanged.. could you have an inquiry on this side ?
Fed is doing the same exact thing they did in 2007 and 2008. More cuts not less coming. and possibly an emergency cut like 2008. I was a day trader back then and all the fed focused on was inflation not unemployment just like today and they panicked when unemployment exploded. Fed never gets it right. Tariffs and unemployment gonna skyrocket with gov job cuts. Plus Japan probably will raise rates in February sending the market tumbling. From day fed start cutting rates, the average drawdown is 20% within 200 days, that’s April just like 2008. Not to mention debt issue, China building military up for Taiwan and housing market starting to head south.
The only difference being the US hadn’t just been through a bad period of inflation in 2008. It’s difficult to imagine the US population accepting a resurgence of inflation having already suffered 30%+ inflation over the last few years
That's what I was telling a co-worker 3yr ago . Like Bush to Obama, then finger-pointing saying look what they did . My only thing is what DOGE is going to have . But we may also have another covid like virus in China. Causing shipping problems .
@@bena7519 30% is nothing compared to what is coming from the Fed.
You're forgetting the bank of Japan and China won't allow the dollar to go any higher. Look at august 9 last year. On top of that, tariffs won't mean shit if China decides to stop exporting to the US. And even if Trump does go with what he said, to be seen as always with Trump, a chinese EV on 100% tariff is still cheaper than an exploding Tesla. And recession has got to it sometimes... maybe not before markets pump again, but you can't just keep flying into the sun forever.
@@hoshinotanecedryctensaibat9711
Rate hikes coming to Japan in February, sending us market tumbling.
Been watching for some time now in my opinion it's one of the most informative market condition updates on RUclips
thank you
Thanks!
Welcome!
You do very good market analysis,
With valuations stretched, and the S&P 493 declining, and interest rates rising this is a good time to have cash for the bottom.
Please play this music when the market crashes
seriously, it felt like black monday lmao
Dude, your analysis is always top notch, don't try to change your style for likes. Keep it going!
Thanks, will do!
Japan could be the patient 0 of the next crisis....250% of debt is the sky limit in economy before failure. To be followed
Interest rates = opportunity cost + RISK. That the market is pricing more risk in treasuries is not surprising given our debt levels AND potential to pay them down in a reasonable time (one 20yr generation?) with an economy drunk on gov't spending - not to mention an incoming admin that is pledging to strip that spending out of the budget. If the economy falters and unemployment rises even to 6-7%, tax receipts drop as does the US's ability to make any headway on that debt. With home sales stagnating, new home construction seeming to peak, unemployment will rise - the only question is how much and how bad will that spook the Fed & equity markets? If that 30yr makes a full measured move from that H&S pattern, we're looking at mortgage rates near 9%. Home sales will screech to a halt along with construction. The next few data points will make a big difference - look for increased vol for the next couple months and price swings all over the place. Thanks for all you do, Mike!
Awesome production improvements Michael, just icing on your already useful and insightful content. Happy New Year
Thanks, you too!
How do you have terminals, do you work for a firm/fund or you pay for it yourself? I love all the updates and info you share, thank you!
i work for myself. I yes, pay for it myself.
Love the stuff thank you.
Thanks for watching!
Great analysis - I'm sure I could learn a lot from you. Please keep it up!
Thanks, will do!
This is thé 1st time since 1987 10 y yield rises while fed cuts
We could have a liké 1987 scénario
Thé déficit trajectory is dangerous Lot of pension funds are underweighting us long term bonds
By thé past Thé usa 10 y yield has never topped before reaching the top of thé fed funds
Thé 10 y yield might reach 5.25/100 before forcing fed ton panic and cutting to 3/100 and even making a twist opération
Thank you for your great analysis. It would be pretty funny if the Fed hikes rates. I do not see that happening but that would cause serious chaos because the market was very focused on multiple expansion. IMHO, I think the bigger risk is recession with the 2/10 yield curve now sitting at a spread of 31 bps.
Nice intro great format
Glad you like it
Awesome & incredible analysis ..very impressed great job!! :)))💕💕😆😆😎😎🎈🎈🎆🎆💕💕
Thanks for watching
One thing is alarmi'g in thé market
Thé cash allocation is at the record low level
It happened in jan 02 and feb 2011 last time market crashed hard after
Another thing concerning
Thé us consumer optimism about Stocks
Last time it was high was décembre 2017
Market performed bad
Insiders have left the titanic
Buffet cash allocation is at record high
Love the little animated graphics
thanks
I have mixed feelings on those. Content great as always.
I kinda take it back as it points out(clearly) on the screen where exactly you are talking about.
Looking forward to more and wishing you much success
Thank you! Have a good new year!
I am.pretty convinced that all this uptrend on bonds is linked with japan ready to tighten very soon its yields....perhaps to keep the spreads unchanged.. could you have an inquiry on this side ?
not just japan.look at rates in europe rising.
Stock market doesn’t like high interest rates right? Do you see correction in the market soon?
Correct. People will move money from the stock market into high interest money market funds.
solid video
thanks
thanks
Welcome
LMAO !..4:24 timestamp. BTW in two weeks CPI and PPI are to be reported and are expected to come in Hot.
:)
Liquidity is the key. MSFT announcing 80 bills spend on AI should keep the party going🎉
that is their capex run rate, there is no surprise there.
it's present 51% increase Year on Year no ?)@@Themarketchronicles
Or, the bond market could just be telling us that all of the deficit spending is over.
but we all know it isn't
@@Themarketchronicles i beg to differ
Mott, the market
Launched higher
Most of friday
But tge 10 yr
Rose 4.60% ?
Are fund flow
Information
Actually correct?
Something isnt
Right.
fund flows are pretty much just estimated from Brokers, I believe. based on typical 60/40 allocation.