Will Treasury Yields Go Back Up Again Or Keep Falling? | Buy At Treasury Auctions This Week?
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- Опубликовано: 15 июн 2024
- Will Treasury yields go back up again or keep falling & should you buy at the 5-Year TIPS & 20-Year Treasury Bond auctions this coming week? Plus, what are the yield expectations for some of the upcoming week's auctions? Watch on & find out!
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*Sources can be found in first pinned comment
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>>> Learn all about bond investing in our bond courses (and how to build a bond portfolio) while bond yields are high join Bond Beginners today (our foundational-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-beginners
Bond Masters (our intermediate-level bond course): www.diamondnestegg.com/bond-masters
Or get both Bond Beginners & Bond Masters together for even more savings: www.diamondnestegg.com/#_paa2isucf
And join our super-supersaver membership for regular market updates & monthly live member Q&As ruclips.net/channel/UCnexoc6tvesvcCEzZhmI-Agjoin
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WATCH NEXT
Our Bond Courses vs RUclips Membership | Which Is Right For You: ruclips.net/video/H5h4Eyh0hjo/видео.html
Bond Beginners Course Sneak Peak | I-Bonds vs TIPS: ruclips.net/video/uXPzbje1g2E/видео.html
Bond Masters Course Sneak Peak | How To Build A Bond Ladder: ruclips.net/video/p90IDmXn19s/видео.html
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Here is the overview for Bond Beginners:
1. Bond Basics
What A Bond Is & How A Bond Works
Why Invest In Bonds
New Issue vs Secondary Market Bonds
Interest Rates & Bond Prices
Current Yield & Yield To Maturity
Always Remember This!
Buying At Par, Above Par & Below Par
Different Types Of Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. The Risks Of Bond Investing
Seven Key Bond Risks
Credit Risk
Interest Rate Risk
Reinvestment Risk/Call Risk
Inflation Risk
Liquidity Risk
Currency Risk & Country Risk
Bond Risk Mitigation Strategies
Wrap-Up
3. US Treasuries Overview
What Are US Treasuries
Why Invest In Treasuries
Where Can You Buy Treasuries
How Are Treasuries Taxed
Wrap-Up
4. Treasury Bills
What Are Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
When Do T-Bill Auctions Happen
Where Should You Buy At Auction
Auto-Roll When Buying At Auction
Where To Find Recent Auction Results
High Rate vs Investment Rate
Reopening Auctions
Cash Management Bills (CMBs)
Buying & Selling On Secondary Market
Wrap-Up
5. Treasury Notes & Bonds
What Are Treasury Notes & Bonds
When Do Auctions Happen
Buying Treasury Notes & Bonds
Auction High Yield vs Interest Rate
Floating Rate Notes (FRNs)
Treasury Zeros (STRIPS)
Wrap-Up
6. TIPS (Inflation-Protected)
What Are TIPS
When Do TIPS Auctions Happen
Nominal vs Real Yields
Negative Yields
How Do You Adjust TIPS For Inflation
Taxes On Phantom Income
Secondary Market Liquidity
Wrap-Up
7. I-Bonds (Inflation-Protected)
What Are I-Bonds
How Does I-Bond Interest Work
I-Bonds vs TIPS
The Annual I-Bond Limit
Wrap-Up
8. Agency Bonds
The Universe Of Bonds
What Are Agency Bonds
How Are Agency Bonds Taxed
Treasuries vs Agencies
Who Might Want To Consider Agencies
Yield-To-Call & Yield-To-Worst
Where Can You Buy Agency Bonds
Wrap-Up
9. Municipal Bonds
Our Bond Universe Gets More Complex
What Are Municipal Bonds
How Safe Are Munis
How Are Munis Taxed
The De Minimis Rule
Social Security & Medicare Premiums
Treasuries, Agencies & Munis
Who Might Want To Consider Munis
Wrap-Up
10. Corporate Bonds
Our Bond Universe Is Complete
What Are Corporate Bonds
How Safe Are Corporates
Corporate Bond Hierarchies
Five Key Features Of Corporate Bonds
How Are Corporates Taxed
Treasuries vs Corporates, Etc.
Who Might Want To Buy Corporates
Wrap-Up
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Here is the overview for Bond Masters:
1. Stocks vs Bonds
Historical Performance
Are Bonds Really Less Volatile
Why Invest In Bonds
Accumulation vs Decumulation
Allocation of Stocks vs Bonds
Wrap-Up
2. Which Bonds Might Be Right For You
Treasuries & Other Types of Bonds
Nominal vs Real Yields
Inflation vs Non-Inflation-Protected
Taxable vs Tax-Advantaged Accounts
Wrap-Up
3. Bond Ladders & Other Bond Strategies
Normal vs Inverted Yield Curve
What Is A Bond Ladder
5 Important Bond Laddering Questions
Laddering When Rates Are Rising
Laddering When Rates Are Falling
Laddering When Rates Are Uncertain
What Is A Bullet
What Is A Barbell
Wrap-Up
4. Holding to Maturity vs Selling Early
Why Hold to Maturity
When To Sell Early Before Maturity
Tax Implications Of Selling Early
Wrap-Up
5. Individual Bonds, Bond Funds, Etc.
Why Buy Individual Bonds
Why Buy Bond Funds
Bond Fund Considerations
Key Bond Fund Concepts
CDs vs Treasuries
Other High-Yield Investments
Wrap-Up
6. Our B.E.S.T. Model Portfolios By Age
Our B.E.S.T Model Portfolios By Age
Model Portfolios In The Industry
B.E.S.T Model Portfolio Difference
How Much Do You Need To Retire?
How I Use The Rules of 100, 110, & 120
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (20s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (30s & 40s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (50s & 60s)
B.E.S.T Model Portfolios (70s+)
Wrap-Up
7. The Decumulation Phase
What Is The Decumulation Phase?
Bear Markets & Recessions
What Can You Do In Bad/Bear Markets
Decumulation Tax Considerations
The 4% Rule
The Bucket Strategy
The Flooring Approach
Jen’s Bucket Strategy With A Twist
Wrap-Up
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SOURCES & FOLLOW-UP VIDEOS FOR TODAY'S VIDEO:
www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/cpi.pdf
www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20240612.pdf
www.bls.gov/ppi/home.htm
www.dol.gov/ui/data.pdf
home.treasury.gov/policy-issues/financing-the-government/interest-rate-statistics
www.fidelity.com/
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Thanks for visiting our personal finance channel! We hope this content will help fast-track your financial journey! Everyone's financial journey is different. Please note that: 1) there are questions/ comments which I will not be able to answer without fully understanding your financial, personal & other circumstances & 2) we will not ask you to call us or send us money in the comments on this channel or any of our other social media accounts, so if you see comment(s) along those lines, it is most likely spam - PLEASE DO NOT ENGAGE WITH SPAMMERS OR GIVE OUT YOUR PERSONAL INFORMATION FOR YOUR OWN SAFETY.
The best bond analyst on the internet
You are really cranking out the content! Good stuff!
Love how you actually explain the charts you show. So many shows just put up graphics for a few seconds without even telling you what the colors or x/y axis means.
I keep buying 4wk t-bills every week and compounding the interest earned into new and/or larger t-bills. I'm still liking this plan very much but know I need to get into some long term bills someday.
I’m grateful for this information, and I’m also grateful for my increased understanding grained from regularly watching your videos. I have created a spreadsheet tracking m investments and I track the asset allocation. I was surprised to see that bonds are only 12%, while T-Bills and savings are 24%, so i definitely need your videos to help me understand how to gradually move into bonds from T-Bills. Thank you so much!
I continue to buy 1 to 6 month T-bills on the secondary market. No guessing required, and as long as they stay at 5+%, today's market along with current economic conditions, give me no reason to change things. Thanks Bond Queen! 👸👍
June 6th the Petro dollar ended. I think the treasury is going to have to increase the yields on all bonds to entice investors since most foreign countries will no longer need or desire to buy US bills, bonds or dollars. I think there may be a major surge in yields in the 7-8% range.
Thank you I was saying this very thing
You should read the agreement for yourself, you might be surprised to learn the details.
First, the June 6 comment is kind of silly. I assume you are refiring to Saudi Arabia (SA) trading oil for other currencies. MBS has no use for Biden and that announcement is a "shot across the bow" of the ship. Will SA start trading other currencies? Yep. But that is not going to have any effect short/medium term.
Second, I do not think this government can afford to pay 7 to 8 % for "any length of time". Not going to happen anytime soon, and if they do the government will implode. Period.
@@JAAB9296 Silly? I think not. The Petro dollar agreement was a 50 year agreement signed in 1974 between Saudi and USA. The agreement was that Saudi would only accept US dollars for their oil. The US would in turn sell them our weapons and protect them from adversaries such as Iran. This is why the US did not retaliate against Saudi after 9-11-01 attacks in the US, even most of the terrorists were from Saudi. The Petro dollar agreement also gave the US reserve currency hegemony for 50 years. That is now over and Saudi has already started trading oil for other currencies such as Yuan, Ruble, Peso and is even considering Bitcoin.
The US has already racked up nearly $35 Trillion. They are not afraid to print more dollars to cover higher interest rates.
@@JAAB9296 you can pay 180% it call comes back to who prints money. now they dont even print its all digital.
“Sustainably” is the key word. I don’t see that happening for a while
THANK YOU FOR MAKING GREAT INFORMATIVE VIDEOS.
FOR NEXT VIDEO, CAN YOU MAKE A VIDEO, WHY AND WHO SHOULD BUY T BILLS, T NOTES ETC VS. STOCKS AND CDs or Money MKTs. Who????
I agree would be a great video!!
Hmm just got back from Vacation.Got a lot of money back the last 2 weeks.Was looking to thrown it all back in . I’ll go with your advice this week.
Hi Steven. From what I remember, you’re mostly in the 13-week. If that’s what you’re still reinvesting, you should know that the 13-week hasn’t moved much in the past several weeks regardless of news. I’ll be talking a bit more about that on the live but I know the auction is happening in a few hours (in case you’re on the fence about this week)
Just getting started buying bonds. Yields on everything under 52 weeks is above 5%. Wish I understood better why she is skipping this weeks auction. I went ahead and bought an even amount of all five short term bonds so I can get my feet wet. Hope I’m not missing something
Thank you. Hard to beat the shirt term T-bill yields.
👚term!
I live in Texas. If I move to another state before I buy the CD, do I have to pay state & local taxes that was purchased in TX when it matures? Thank you.
Please do a video on How to buy secondary market T-Bills on Vanguard. I think you had one a long time ago. I won't be able to attend live Q&A today. Thank you.
It's already in the works Tammy. Best - Eva
I cannot agree more 😂 Long-term bond yield is heading toward 8%-10%
The 20 yr issuance is also down slightly this month to 13B from 16B in May. I may hold off on buying any this month and consult the tea leaves in July.
Sounds like you have a plan!
I purchased 4-week T bill last week in my Vanguard account through auction. The yield is 5.39%. But in your table it is 5.45%. Can you tell me why they are different. Thanks!!!!
Not positive, but pretty sure these end-of-week summaries are looking at numbers from the secondary market movements.
What’s the difference between buying TBills in auction vs buying with Fidelity investments?
@@_-Karl-_ 👍
With the very important 35 trillion dollars of debt and growing, tariffs on China, people getting accustomed to spending more, etc - Is it possible we entered into a new cycle that makes 3-4% inflation normal?
not if the fed sticks to it's guns. if we stay in the 3-4% range, the fed will have no choice but to raise rates again... until we finally have a recession which will force inflation back down to the 2% level. the worry the fed has is dropping rates too soon and watching inflation take off again ala the 1970s.
Some talking heads on cable are debating whether we'll ever see 2% again and suggest we can learn to live with 2.5% or 3% but I haven't heard anyone talking about a number over 3%
@@ATHJD07 are these the same talking heads who said rates would go down in March? I tend to ignore talking heads as they are just that; they don't do anything. Powell and the Fed on the other hand, can and do make a difference. So they are the ones I listen to.
@@geoffcohen6062 yeppers, same ones that predicted 5 or 6 rate cuts in 2024. The only prediction I have confidence in is “higher for longer”
Hi everyone. I've added this onto Jennifer's list for tonight's member live. Best - Eva
Any thoughts on the 7 year tomorrow? For someone needing income in 7 years.
Hi Mary - Do you mean the 5-Year TIPS reopening auction tomorrow? The 7-Year auction is next week. Jen
You mentioned the drivers behind rising yields, and you expect them to keep rising. I’m wondering if the government can really afford for the yields to keep rising since it will increase the cost of their interest payments. Don’t you think the government will do whatever they can to drive the yields down?
Their super power is printing money indiscriminately and taxing without end. Why would they try to decrease yields if it means everyone handing them our money?
The 6% FHLB 20 year bond I hold becomes callable after Aug 8th..at its 6 month...will it be called? I suspect NOT..
All my FHLB and FFCB that were over 6 % and even my 5.5% JPM CD (in Fidelity) were called this year. But I'm happy, they earned bigly for a while and I've got liquidity if I want to retire a little sooner than planned. I still have some agencies at 5.95%, 5.875% and 5.52%. I expect they'll get called, in that order, before the end of the year. I also have some investment grade callable corporates at 7.25% and 7.50% I'd like to see them earn as long as possible but expect they'll get called before maturity. Again, happy they are callable, given my circumstances.
More chance it will get called, if rates are lower….enjoy the ride 😀
I'm comfy riding the '4 week magic t-bill ladder ride' straight into the election. The Fed should open up an amusement park.. the way they can play with our emotions at a whim...
Welp, in addition to dipping my toes into nominal treasuries this week (supplementing BND), I'm dipping my toes into TIPS (to supplement my I Bonds). Also at auction. It's in my taxable account, but I'm gearing up for retirement, like early next year, at which point I will begin Roth conversions, so I will eliminate my pre-tax space pretty soon.
Been a fan of yours for almost two years. Still buying TBills directly and also have large chunk in Vanguard VMFXX paying 5.26%. Look forward to all of your content. Proud US Army Vet🫡