The Truth about QYLD Tested for YOU! | QYLD Backtested with in depth Analysis! |

Поделиться
HTML-код
  • Опубликовано: 13 дек 2024

Комментарии • 98

  • @johnblocher8431
    @johnblocher8431 2 года назад +10

    I own a ratio of 100 shares QYLD to 3 shares QQQ and find it works reasonably well as a kind of combined position. My main bogey on a very high-yield stock is whether, over time, it will maintain its value. If it doesn't maintain its value then you have to mentally adjust the dividend yield downward (essentially part of the dividend yield is covering the capital loss). For example if a stock yields 12% but generally drops 2% each year, then the "real yield" is only 10%. I generally think it is fine to own some QYLD, but not to invest too much into it as a proportion of the total portfolio. If it is up to about 10% of total holdings that is probably ok, starts to overconcentrated at some point. Still for a baseline level of dividend income it works well. Consider some of the long-term dividend aristocrats where the starting yield might not be as high but the growth will carry the effective yield you are receiving to a high level.
    The analysis ignores taxes, compares to a mythical growth stock rather than actually picking a real stock for a comparison, and picks a long time horizon (much longer than most people will consider as a horizon). I would also say this isn't actually "backtesting". Backtesting is buying in the past and comparing two things a person could buy, not projecting forward based on historical ratios and statistical values that may or may not be completely relevant. A good comparison would be QYLD compared to a dividend aristocrat that has been a dividend aristocrat for the entire time of the comparison. Better yet, compare it to all of them that have been on and stayed on the list during the existence of QYLD and see where it ranks.

    • @kylem7153
      @kylem7153 2 года назад

      This comment presents a better analytical approach tyan the actual video, which was pointless.

  • @filippomallozzi551
    @filippomallozzi551 2 года назад +31

    Tell me a stock with 7% annual growth rate 30 years from now and I'll sell my qyld

    • @kevin_brown_dc3423
      @kevin_brown_dc3423 2 года назад +1

      I was wondering that also. Please tell me what stock has 7% dividend and growing. Ill take a thousand shares of that stock please.

  • @danielmarzullo5450
    @danielmarzullo5450 2 года назад +8

    This is a great analysis. In my humble opinion, you should change the growth rate assumption of QYLD's dividend to 0% and see where that gets you. While I agree the price appreciation growth rate should be slightly negative based on the structure of the fund, the dividend growth rate being negative isn't entirely accurate. Dividends are merely based on options premium during each month of the fund's history. Their intention is to not grow or decrease the dividend, but the variance of the dividend payout is a function of implied volatility in options during that month. Right now, options premiums are probably very high. During the steady bull markets of 2017-(most of) 2018, they were probably really low. This is next to impossible to project forward 30 years, which is why I think a 0% dividend growth rate is more appropriate and in line with the long-term objective of the fund which is to simply maintain and 11% payout ratio.

    • @noahcash
      @noahcash 2 года назад

      its all about timing my friend, but in general the fund is down 25% for all time

  • @treygraphicsfte6747
    @treygraphicsfte6747 2 года назад +6

    if you do strategic entry point the returns are great but qyld is a very purpose based investment stratgey its not meant for people who are of the "tradionial investing mindset" for example im using qyld to inflate my annual income for greater leveagre to qualify for in comercial real estate and other more sophisticated capital based strategies. My path to finacial freedom isnt based on % returns on investments, but Assets under management approach to financial freedom using a free cashflow metric for investment success

  • @patricweber63
    @patricweber63 2 года назад +1

    What about the expense ratio?

  • @Food4thought1234
    @Food4thought1234 2 года назад +4

    I’m starting to understand. I got into ETF’s and QYLD from coworkers. So even if I did put too much money, I’m doing better than letting my money sit in the bank. I wish you would have given recommendations oh what to get that gives similar payouts. Perhaps you did and I just missed it. But if you didn’t maybe include it in future videos. Some of us have no clue, and need as much hand holding as you can LOL Thanks for the video.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад +4

      I’m planning on releasing some videos in the future on your question! Thanks for the comment.

    • @JOHNHSMITH2
      @JOHNHSMITH2 2 года назад

      RYLD XYLD JEPI SVOL RA GOF

    • @coreystamler6526
      @coreystamler6526 2 года назад

      Have you looked into jepi?

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      @@coreystamler6526 going to be releasing a video on them soon.

  • @Haffizy17
    @Haffizy17 2 года назад +5

    You did a good job! I just wanted to see how it would compare to SPY over that 30 year time horizon

  • @Nonduality
    @Nonduality 2 года назад

    There's equity growth, dividend growth, and income growth. QYLD allows for income growth if you keep reinvesting all or part of the monthly dividend. Neither the share price nor the dividend may increase over time, but the monthly income will, or at least should increase. But if you want both equity and income growth, invest in something like SPXX. And if you wish to have equity, dividend, and income growth, find a blue-chip dividend-paying stock or etf. Combine the three growth possibilities in whatever proportion suits you depending on your needs.

  • @maryfreeman2917
    @maryfreeman2917 2 года назад +4

    I have a 10 year horizon, so this works for me

  • @cloudedjourney
    @cloudedjourney 2 года назад +4

    It preforms worse over a 30 year time period, but it can take 16 years to get to that point. That potentially allows you to supplement your income significantly for that 16 years. 30 years is a long time as well and there are no guarantees that the dividend growth stock will consistently perform. Companies like GE come to mind. Been working through pros and cons of these different types of investing for a while now. Jury is still out. Thanks for the analysis!

  • @Jumpman67
    @Jumpman67 2 года назад +4

    I was a little skeptical at first since most videos talk about how great QYLD is but you came to the same conclusion I did a couple years ago. QYLD isn't a great long term option in my opinion. I think it's good for people looking for cash flow through dividends but I don't like it over a long period of time.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад +2

      Agreed! It definitely has its place, but it doesn’t always align with many investors goals or investment time horizons.

    • @bluegoblin2196
      @bluegoblin2196 2 года назад

      I’m only investing in qyld to pay my bills and that’s it. I’m not using it to pay for my lifestyle only to pay my bills(mortgage,utilities,insurances)

  • @JasonCloseOK
    @JasonCloseOK 2 года назад +2

    The one thing that you and everyone else leaves out is that no one knows when to sell a growth stock. May 2022 is a great example. People are holding bags because no one knows when to sell. They tell you not to sell low. But no one seems to know when the high is either.
    Something like QYLD is something you keep forever, and is essentially guaranteed income, removing the need to worry about timing and market crashes. QYLD pays by shares, not price.
    The issue is that QYLD seems to be heading to zero, because it doesn't have any assets, and there's no limit to funds. What happens to dividends at that point?
    Anyone who doesn't do a cover-call on their growth stocks, and actually pick a sell price, is living in a fantasy.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      Often times the goal of dividend growth stocks is to not sell. When you reinvest dividends the compounding effect starts to take place. After some time, you find yourself with 50% dividend yields on cost if you invest into quality dividend growth stocks.

    • @JasonCloseOK
      @JasonCloseOK 2 года назад

      @@Dividendology On truly growth stocks, your dividends will never be able to afford the new share price to reinvest. Especially in today's time, where P/E is completely out of whack.
      I don't think a 100% covered call ETF is going to help growth. This is why JEPI and QQQX are important to add to the mix. A 100% covered call fund should likely be a service without a stock price.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      Good thoughts. I have a video on JEPI coming out soon.

  • @michaelchesney3785
    @michaelchesney3785 2 года назад +3

    What about newly retired at 55 and looking for just income? If the markets stay flat or "normal" for the next decade or so would the data support the same conclusion? Enlightening video and definitely giving me pause before sinking a large chunk into QYLD. Thanks!

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад +2

      QYLD is definitely a case by case situation. I think even for people who are in situations where it could make sense to invest into QYLD , I still wounld't advise to make it the only holding in their portfolio.
      That's the short answer, I plan on making more videos on QYLD in the future, so hopefully I can answer more of your questions in future videos. Thanks!

  • @stevec.7017
    @stevec.7017 2 года назад +1

    what are some examples of DGS in this situation? SCHD? Watching on a phone so could not see yield on the DGS

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      Historically a great example would be KO. They have had phenomenal price appreciation and dividend growth over the past 30 years.
      As for dividend growth today, it’s important to find the intrinsic value of stocks and understand their managements approach to dividend growth to find opportunities. Some *potential companies that could have great price appreciation as well as dividend growth would be MSFT, AAPL, LOW, HD, and SBUX. I plan on continuing to perform analysis on these types of companies and making videos on them.

  • @randalldellwo6365
    @randalldellwo6365 2 года назад +1

    So if I have say, $5,000,000 to invest then maybe it’s not for me. But I’m probably never going to have that kind of money. I’m looking for a secondary passive income and have about $175,000 to invest. This fits the bill perfectly. Thank you for your analysis.

  • @Frankenfolio
    @Frankenfolio 2 года назад +3

    Bought a nominal amount of QYLD a while back, but have never felt all that good about having it in my portfolio. I’m doing some clean up now and will be selling it and reinvesting in companies I believe in. I’m also on the fence with a handful of shares of RIO, would love to see an analysis of them. I like the exposure to Lithium mining as I see upside there, but am wary of such their unstable dividend. Great video, love your content, in investing terms I’m long on this channel, I think it has a bright future!

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад +1

      Good thoughts, I feel many people buy into QYLD and realize that there are better options for long term investors.
      I’ll have to add RIO on my list of videos to make.
      I appreciate the kinds words. I’m definitely hoping to continue to grow the channel!

    • @Outta12
      @Outta12 2 года назад +1

      A negative div growth rate of 1.8% ?

    • @Outta12
      @Outta12 2 года назад +2

      @@Dividendology what if the QQQ index appreciates over time? How would the capital appreciation rate effect your protections?

  • @johncu7007
    @johncu7007 2 года назад

    VERY good analysis 🧐 - I was somewhat taken aback (initially) when the video first started, but then when you got to [near] the very end then you made a lot of sense.
    I am personally in the area and territory of income NOW (because of going into retirement).
    Most investment books 📚 that I’ve read note (over and over) that “Yield” is King 👑 in/with someone going into retirement.
    So I (personally) will ALWAYS look 👀 for investments with the higher/highest Yield (but, that also have a good amount of safety and stability in that, as well).
    And it seems that QYLD is [presently] in that “sweet-spot” for income/retirement individuals.
    One VERY important thing that was missed in this video is the factor of “Change” (over time⏰).
    Meaning, that NO ONE knows the changing and different scenarios that will happen over time (can you say inflation?, recessions?, depression? [booms/busts], etc.)
    So NO ONE can really say [precisely] that we will have 10, 20, or even 30 years of “Perfect” (smooth/consistent/un-changing) environment.
    So thus, “change” will ALWAYS mess up and destroy any prediction/estimate/ or Model (Excel or otherwise) that will [or can] be created.
    So what is the conclusion then?? -
    Simple - everyone should be as “flexible” [as possible] and always try to adjust (and re-adjust) to and with each situation, as Best as possible, as they arise 😄👍
    My 2 cents 🪙

  • @bluegoblin2196
    @bluegoblin2196 2 года назад

    I have 2 stock portfolios, one with growth stocks(apple,Microsoft,etc) and one strictly monthly dividends(qyld,O,etc). My only goal with my dividend account is for it to pay for all my bills and that’s it. Let’s say all my bills combined equals $2500 then that’s my goal with dividends.
    After that I’ll move on to real estate, I’m not looking to retire from qyld as long as it can pay all my bills I’m good to go :)

  • @raziel2215
    @raziel2215 2 года назад +2

    That means, it will be a good idea cash out about 70 to 80% of dividends only and reinvest the rest.

  • @louis20122
    @louis20122 2 года назад +1

    Why do covered call options ETFs get so popular? Income are from options premiums but are they safe and sustainable for decades?

  • @travis4118
    @travis4118 2 года назад

    Where do you get a dividend growth rate of 8.5%? (even if just example and even if you think there's a stock or ETF out there like that?)...share it. I did a simple Yahoo Screener to try to locate such a gem....closest I could come is with ticker "JNJ"--even this stock has fluctuation in dividend payouts when markets experience drop. The math/model is sound...just can it be applied in reality. An ETF like VUG for example--just like every other ETF and stock since 2009--has been a rocket ship; IF markets experience another crash like they always do 2000, 2007,8,9 to name a couple...these growth stocks and some dividend payers stop the dividends or cut them in 1/2. QYLD is not a GEM and everyone holding it should expect it to participate heavily on any downside (as its just showed) and not participate on any upside (as its just showed). Share some "LONG-TERM" ETFs or Stocks that match the model.

  • @marshabonforte6963
    @marshabonforte6963 2 года назад

    I basically agree with your analysis of QYLD. After thinking about it, I’ve concluded that it’s not for me and that I’d rather concentrate on dividend growth. However, QYLD might perform better if you could treat it like a cyclical stock, in other words, buy it at the beginning of a business cycle and sell just before a recession.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      Good thought!

    • @boxman8957
      @boxman8957 2 года назад

      @@Dividendology Just a question. If the share price of a dividend ETF like QYLD or RYLD drops, would this lower the dividend paid out?
      E.g., if you had invested $10,000 into QYLD at a dividend yield of 10%, that's $1,000 a year paid out.
      If this falls to $9,000 and the dividend yield is still 10%, that's $900 a year paid out.
      Is that correct? Trying to see if compounding DRIP makes sense.

  • @paulharsh78
    @paulharsh78 2 года назад +1

    You earned a sub! I have no idea the obsession of qyld on RUclips. Bunch of idiots not looking at the long term picture. Qyld does not make sense to retire early unless you wanna go back to work.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      Thanks! It definitely has potential to be good in some situations, but for long term investors, I think there could be better options.

  • @deadly134
    @deadly134 2 года назад +1

    So would it be smart to get growth then at like 50 sell and get qyld

    • @JOHNHSMITH2
      @JOHNHSMITH2 2 года назад +1

      If there is growth. Growrh you need a crystal ball. What if we have a 10 year flat period?

    • @deadly134
      @deadly134 2 года назад +1

      @@JOHNHSMITH2 could but realistically the s&p500 is gunna continue to innovate so there will always be growth somewhere.

    • @JOHNHSMITH2
      @JOHNHSMITH2 2 года назад

      @@deadly134 true. May start a small SWPPX fund.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад +2

      I'll be doing another QYLD comparison soon. Stay tuned.

    • @JOHNHSMITH2
      @JOHNHSMITH2 2 года назад

      @@Dividendology RYLD XYLD JEPI RA GOF SVOL. Dumped qyld lol

  • @craftedbyalvint
    @craftedbyalvint 2 года назад

    What if I take a $5,000 loan at 6.25% for 3 years put that into QYLD. Use the monthly payout plus my minimum loan payment monthly. Would I then have printed a little bit of money in the difference?

  • @thomasraab5963
    @thomasraab5963 2 года назад

    Hi interesting comparison with the assumptions of a 8.5% dividend stocks what stock is it ? to look now 30 years ahead you dares to assume such things 30 years ahead. could you do a comparison of actual history from 2013 to now with some 8.5 % growth stock ..but please name such a stock and its price development through the various crises too .

  • @jb3995
    @jb3995 2 года назад +1

    Take the dividends from Qyld and buy different growth stocks to grow your portfolio.

  • @jonboyfutch8081
    @jonboyfutch8081 2 года назад

    Covered calls are motivation for new investors but then slow pull back to something more stable

  • @FandomFinance
    @FandomFinance 2 года назад

    Good job breaking it down!

  • @raymondcarson7355
    @raymondcarson7355 2 года назад +19

    I like your channel, don't think you're a hater, but, you're the 100th RUclipsr with the imaginary 7 or 8% growth stock that will beat it. AT&T used to close to 7%. Why aren't you guys naming any real companies but coming up with this 7% plus yeild. That's the thing to make, a these stocks will beat QYLD in 10 plus yrs video

    • @Javier99999
      @Javier99999 2 года назад +5

      Yeah. You really only have one chance to pick the right company that is somehow going to keep a 7% dividend for the next 30 years. And you are going to assume you know this 30 years prior. Good luck

    • @kyleryneost
      @kyleryneost 2 года назад +1

      Wouldn’t this beat everything at 12% over 10 year with compounding interest in general

    • @kyleryneost
      @kyleryneost 2 года назад +3

      Also I think you’re viewing this Stock as a stock and not a savings account which it’s more reflective on savings.. this is an amazing place to hold large amounts of money without paying taxes on dividends.. if you put $330,000 in QYLD and just take the dividend of I think 11.75% which is 4.75 higher than 7% you would take $38,775 home tax free or $3,231.25 see dividends are not capital gains are tax free under $40,000 if you’re single and $80,000 if you’re married..
      Imagine winning $200,000 from the lottery well taxes. In illinois I would lose $59,900 in taxes walk away with $149,100 but if I took that money all of it and put it into QYLD I could turn 200,000 into $223,500 and when taxes come I still only pay $59,900 and walk away with $149,100+$23,500=$172,600
      Value is knowing that you can either reinvest it and keep contributing to it, or withdraw from it without Penalty or use the dividend as cash on demand.. like that’s $23,500 is free money just letting it sit.. imagine $10,000 and turning it into $100,000 in less than 5 years

    • @MerrymanFins
      @MerrymanFins 2 года назад

      I agree. Compare QYLD to a t
      5% growth dividend stock

    • @deanlehman4723
      @deanlehman4723 2 года назад

      I buy 5 to 10 shares a week . Investing for retirement.

  • @bootstrapstylerich
    @bootstrapstylerich Год назад

    Whatta 'bout NUSI???????????

  • @jasonl3404
    @jasonl3404 2 года назад

    What’s DG stock?

  • @loudellemonache5734
    @loudellemonache5734 2 года назад +1

    This video is very well done with excellent content as the result of thorough research. My question is what actual dividend growth stock compares to your data used in the analysis...a stock such as Altria?

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад +1

      Thank you! Historically the best example of this would be $KO. And while most people don’t view them this way, $AAPL and $MSFT have been great dividend stocks due to their massive dividend growth.
      As for the next great dividend stocks, much of this channel is dedicated to find undervalued dividend paying companies. Some companies that may *potentially* have these types of returns would be Target, Lowes, Starbucks, and Home Depot to name a few. They all have great dividend growth and price appreciate potential.

  • @blinddudegameing446
    @blinddudegameing446 2 года назад +2

    My personal favorite thing about this ETF, is it pays you on the first release at some point around there I think one time baby I like the second or the third but in that first week of the month and I think that may have been because the first was on a weekend that week, but it always pays you within that first week of the month I’ve been on disability for a long time, and they took my disability away when I got a full-time job, I was on it my whole life before that but I’ve always been a person who likes to make their own money so I started to invest so I wouldn’t have to worry about Social Security anymore, and I really like this because it pays you on the first like I’m used to it’s not the middle of the month it’s at least right now guaranteed on the first so it makes it easy to plan bills for other things

  • @f581474x
    @f581474x 2 года назад

    What is the security you were complaining qyld to?

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      It was a comparison to a dividend growth stock.

  • @luke2517
    @luke2517 2 года назад

    Does this stay true if QYLD doesn't have a negative growth rate?

  • @Chris.Brisson
    @Chris.Brisson 2 года назад +2

    During those 30 years, there will be times of Quantitative Easing and times of Quantitative Tightening. If we change strategy during those periods to favor growth during QE and value during QT, how does performance compare, and where then does QYLD fit into the picture?

    • @joemeyer2726
      @joemeyer2726 2 года назад

      6.5% should delete from conversation

  • @jasondude7566
    @jasondude7566 2 года назад

    QYLD below $18 is a great bargain. If you stay put and reinvest the dividends, then you have a nice income stream in 10 years that you can then use to buy other value stocks

  • @MerrymanFins
    @MerrymanFins 2 года назад

    Being recently retired I have a large percentage of my portfolio in QYLD till the S&P bottoms in Sept at around 3400. Then will DCA back into VOO

  • @stevec.7017
    @stevec.7017 2 года назад

    Are the dividends qualified or ordinary?

  • @robevans2114
    @robevans2114 2 года назад +1

    QYLD looks to be losing value. It appears the drop the price by X and pay it as a dividend so I am not sure you ever get any value.

  • @Jay_Kennedy
    @Jay_Kennedy 2 года назад

    What growth stock is he comparing Qyld to?

  • @PhillipLearnTeach
    @PhillipLearnTeach 2 года назад

    It seems to be more volatile than XYLD for like +-2% diff

  • @robcoghan5204
    @robcoghan5204 2 года назад

    17 and change

  • @kevin_brown_dc3423
    @kevin_brown_dc3423 2 года назад +1

    If you are not buying QYLD in bulk right now while it is low in price then you need to buy now. To make QYLD work better then you have to buy low and just rake in dividends when its high.

  • @michaelghanayem8557
    @michaelghanayem8557 2 года назад

    QYLD is only good for income, cash that you gonna use for personal use/expenses. If you looking for long term investing for retirement than better to go with stable growth like SP500 or if you want riskier and quicker than Nasdaq 100 but when you reach your goal than convert to dividend investing/income because with growth investing you be able to reach your goal lot quicker and retire sooner. cuz when you truly backtest QYLD, VOO, and SCHD qyld falls fair behind. (QYLD dividend income. VOO stable capital growth, and SCHD dividend growth)

  • @the_ikiru
    @the_ikiru 2 года назад

    $15,000 dividends per month - not inflation adjusted. Maybe $15k per month dividends will not be so "incredible" in 30 years... might be hard to make ends meet on that.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      Inflation is definitely something to consider.

    • @es330td
      @es330td 2 года назад +2

      This is the reason you never spend all of your dividend. If you only spend 90% of the distribution and reinvest the other 10% you give yourself an inflation hedge.

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      Good thought!

  • @Whooshta
    @Whooshta 2 года назад

    Wait... why did you use QYLD for your $25k video then if your conclusion was to not invest in it?

    • @Dividendology
      @Dividendology  2 года назад

      I had a small position in QYLD that I added a while back. I don’t agree with this position anymore. I’ll likely sell out of it soon and reallocate to something else.

  • @Jake-pf4kv
    @Jake-pf4kv 2 года назад +1

    I only buy DIVO!!!!!!!!!!!!

  • @vicentecabrera9245
    @vicentecabrera9245 2 года назад

    BST is a million times better then QYLD

    • @keithmarple7029
      @keithmarple7029 2 года назад

      BST is dropping like a rock while QYLD is skipping along .................................

  • @joemeyer2726
    @joemeyer2726 2 года назад

    6.5% total return 10 yr Ave while SPY is 14%, shame on you