Because in some cities around the Treasure Valley, price decreases are coming back. But it's because - tis the season. Historically, sellers price drop their properites as the buyer demand cools in Q4. Holiday season. As far as Zillow and Redfin and their data as a whole, about our market..., they use a basic AVM. Instead of actual data . Idaho is a nondisclosure State. Their AVM is an algorithm taking what data they have access too, like active properties for sale. Price decreases are returning a "bit" to our area. True. However, again, tis the season when it historically happens. Q4 to Q1. Interest rates hurt right now, don't get me wrong, but I'd anticipate with inventory coming down and buyer demand doing the same (Q4)., I'd guess prices would be on the way up again in Q2 of 2024 as buyers return. Regardless of where rates were in 2023, buyers still bought. Price stability in housing, for our area, is about 3 to 4% gains per year. Supply and demand next year, with rates where they are, should slow our market pretty significantly. Sellers won't sell, and buyers will be thinking twice. Gonna be interesting next year, but because your seeing price drops, I'd say its more on a seasonal, historical, trend in RE across the US, than interest rates being the sole direct cause. Interest rates will cause sales (overall) to be down next year, that's for sure. But I think supply and demand will be in a balance to see a lot of what we saw this year. Steady growth in equity.
I have to disagree with you sir. Boises market is severely overvalued and desperately needs a correction. As rates rise homes will stay on the market longer and inventory will rise were houses will have no choice but to drop to fair value selling points. The actual sale price of the home does not have to be disclosed, you are correct but what I was talking about was current homes on the market that are dropping prices in large amounts. Why on earth would those be incorrect values? Those are the prices the house is listed at and they are dropping more than just what a typical off season produces. Not trying to discredit you but some people are trying to get people to fomo in and this a bad time for that. I don’t have a crystal ball but I don’t think rates are dropping until late next year.
Fair. I enjoy the rebuttal! Thanks! First. The Treasure Valley market was the fastest and highest growing area in equity across the US during the pandemic. In fact, we set the bar for the Nation. At this point in time (massive equity elevation [20'- mid 22']), I'll conceede to "then" as being "overvalued". In fact, I did a video on it. We were #1 then (according to Forbes)...now we're not on many radars anymore. Of such, we were also the first in the Nation to go through a Market Correction, that you refer too (late May/June 2022 to Jan 2023). Forbes called it out in 2022 that we would go through one. Currently, we've gone through it. Our Markets on a County level dropped ~20%. When inventory actually spiked well above buyers demand. And why? It was really because a lot of sellers got caught holding the bag while buyers dropped out due to fast rising interest rates. And those sellers too that wanted to get out before the chnage in rates. Now both buyers and sellers see the writing on the wall, where they didn't when inflation started taking grip, and rates rose. Remember all the talk of transitory inflation? Well, we all know know that the Fed dropped the ball. As they normally do. Please refer back to the video to see the Stats on the Market Correction that the Treasure Valley experinced. From Late May/Early June it began, and lasted till the first of 2023. We've been on the rise since (equity wise), and inventory stabilized itself as compared to buyers demand. With a slight gain in inventory currently, but coming down. Flat out, sellers are reluctant to sell. Hence why I say sellers are really selling out of necessity...not because they want to up and make a lateral move. Lets talk about buyer demand in 2023. Buyer demand increased as of Q1 to Q3. Regardless of fast interest rates rising (fear of missing out?....perhaps)....or maybe because people still need housing. Unless of course they prefer a tent, lol. The rising interest rates also kept sellers at bay. Why sell a home that they have high 2 to 4%, for a 6% or higher? This is what high interest rates do, and accomplishes the task of the Fed. Price stability. What these high interest rates will do is keep inventory at bay to buyers demand. Some sellers too, that you see the price drops on could also pull their homes from the market as they dont get interested buyers due to high interest rates. There are also a lot of sellers out there that are overpricing their homes. Hence the price drops. Not all sellers listen to our CMA's...suggested values. If you notice by the data, expireds are up this month. Its a sign that this is occuring. However though, in 2024, we could still see the the opposite of any continued marke correction. Like we have seen so far in 2023. Buyers buying regaldless of interest rates. We will have to wait until Q2 to really see how that pans out. I think you said that you don't see the holidays being a factor, but at this time of year...they always are. Plus back to school. Lets look at why our market does good though. That's the other factor to take a look at. It's not like the Treasure Valley has all the amenities of say a New York. Even Boise isn't te biggest of all cities. The reason....its because the Treasure Valley is "basically" a political boomtown. People desire to move here to escape the horrors of the blue States they come from. As long as those States continue to drive people out, this market will remain good. Diving further into the data, the buyers also coming here (as of late) can purchase more by cash means, than the means of a loan. And to say, overvalued? Well, we still have remote workers. They are usually not included in the overall median income fold, on paper. Most of the homeowners I know actuall ylive quite comfortably well. We also have the cheapest utilites in the Nation. It helps a little. We do get a lot of retiree's here, as well (that usually buy in cash). To suggest that I wish to create fomo to my watchers is not correct. I just go off the data, and what the economy/politics show me. If you would like to see specifically what cities are seeing some price declines around the Treasure Valley, please see Altos Research. It's a good tool for those that dont have direct access to the local MLS. I know most want to see the markets take a dive again, like in 08'. Why wouldn't anyone, right? Unless your a current homeowner. Housing is expensive. That's not debatable. But to expect that, or a continued market correction to our area, when higher interest rates is showing a level of price stability to both buyers and sellers alike, and in supply and demand...well, the data is not pointing to either. Could it, maybe? If we go to WWIII, or worse...lose our Status as the World Reserve Currency, we could. But do you want to see either of those happen, just to get a cheaper home price? Anyways...inventory would have to increase to market correction levels like we saw in 2022, really. To continue one (a Market Correction). Also, if you look historically at Mortgage Interst Rates over the years, it may be high considering the price of homes, but it's not "historically" high. As they go higher, I can guarantee sellers will be even more disdained from selling, as will buyers buying. So, again, even playing field....really. As the Fed furthers its conquest of quantative tightening, instead of easing (like they did for 10+ years)...which was responsible for rates in the ~3%, this can also keep rates higher, and for longer. 10 year Treasuries and MBS. They have their finger on the button with those. But to the point, the days of ~3%'s are over, and the American people know it. Hence why markets across the US did "impressively" in 2023 admits the negative talk and higher interest rates. One thing I totally agree, rates will not see any remote "sigh of" relief until the Fed cuts the FFR (which does not control Mortgage Interest Rates directly, but lets the 10 year Treasury Markets and MBS breathe...which does direlty affect.....cause they have been DEFENSIVE for some time now)...but one thing I can almost guarantee, when they do drop, buyers will return in droves...and with little inventory (if sellers are still reluctant to sell... and builders not building, which is currently the case)...we could see another spike in home prices. Like the pandemic. Thanks for the comment! Buyers and Sellers are waiting to see some results to the inflation fallout. They will be waiting. Oh, btw...have you seen that the Treasury Yields are starting to re-invert themselves? Hmmm.....maybe the Fed can come in for a soft landing after all.
Just re-reading your statement here (after my dissertation....sorry, lol). But, how do you know homes are dropping their prices in "large amounts?" Have you run a CMA on each subject property? Or perhaps your an appraiser? Or are you going off Zillow and Redfin's AVM's?....oh, and your right, the values that they are selling for is the value they are selling for thats on Redfin and Zillow. Where did I mention that they weren't? If I misworded something, my aplogies. But the list price refelcted is the list price they are asking for their property :). Also, what does a typical offseason produce to you? Maybe these homes you are looking at were overpriced to begin with....just food for thought. Not taking shots, so please don't take it that way :). As in the dissertation below, expireds are on the way up. That usually indicates that some started off to high, or they wish to sell their homes for the price they want, and that it's. Rememeber, most sellers price their homes higher...and why? Becuase of the sentimental value. A buyers purchase with their pocketbook in mind. Just FYI, we as Realtors should run a CMA to know whether a home is overvalued, or maybe even under. And no, a CMA is not an apprisial :)....nor am I an appraiser. If you're going off the Zillow or Redfin AVM, that is not an accurate value to compare the prices drops to. Trust me. LOL!.....I invite you to go back to some of the Zestimates...if the asking price drops, usually the Zestimate does too, about a few days to a week later.
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Curious why I’m constantly getting price drop updates from Zillow and Redfin on homes in the Treasure Valley but your data shows an upwards trend?
Because in some cities around the Treasure Valley, price decreases are coming back. But it's because - tis the season. Historically, sellers price drop their properites as the buyer demand cools in Q4. Holiday season. As far as Zillow and Redfin and their data as a whole, about our market..., they use a basic AVM. Instead of actual data . Idaho is a nondisclosure State. Their AVM is an algorithm taking what data they have access too, like active properties for sale. Price decreases are returning a "bit" to our area. True. However, again, tis the season when it historically happens. Q4 to Q1. Interest rates hurt right now, don't get me wrong, but I'd anticipate with inventory coming down and buyer demand doing the same (Q4)., I'd guess prices would be on the way up again in Q2 of 2024 as buyers return. Regardless of where rates were in 2023, buyers still bought. Price stability in housing, for our area, is about 3 to 4% gains per year. Supply and demand next year, with rates where they are, should slow our market pretty significantly. Sellers won't sell, and buyers will be thinking twice. Gonna be interesting next year, but because your seeing price drops, I'd say its more on a seasonal, historical, trend in RE across the US, than interest rates being the sole direct cause. Interest rates will cause sales (overall) to be down next year, that's for sure. But I think supply and demand will be in a balance to see a lot of what we saw this year. Steady growth in equity.
I have to disagree with you sir. Boises market is severely overvalued and desperately needs a correction.
As rates rise homes will stay on the market longer and inventory will rise were houses will have no choice but to drop to fair value selling points.
The actual sale price of the home does not have to be disclosed, you are correct but what I was talking about was current homes on the market that are dropping prices in large amounts. Why on earth would those be incorrect values? Those are the prices the house is listed at and they are dropping more than just what a typical off season produces.
Not trying to discredit you but some people are trying to get people to fomo in and this a bad time for that. I don’t have a crystal ball but I don’t think rates are dropping until late next year.
Fair. I enjoy the rebuttal! Thanks! First. The Treasure Valley market was the fastest and highest growing area in equity across the US during the pandemic. In fact, we set the bar for the Nation. At this point in time (massive equity elevation [20'- mid 22']), I'll conceede to "then" as being "overvalued". In fact, I did a video on it. We were #1 then (according to Forbes)...now we're not on many radars anymore. Of such, we were also the first in the Nation to go through a Market Correction, that you refer too (late May/June 2022 to Jan 2023). Forbes called it out in 2022 that we would go through one. Currently, we've gone through it. Our Markets on a County level dropped ~20%. When inventory actually spiked well above buyers demand. And why? It was really because a lot of sellers got caught holding the bag while buyers dropped out due to fast rising interest rates. And those sellers too that wanted to get out before the chnage in rates. Now both buyers and sellers see the writing on the wall, where they didn't when inflation started taking grip, and rates rose. Remember all the talk of transitory inflation? Well, we all know know that the Fed dropped the ball. As they normally do. Please refer back to the video to see the Stats on the Market Correction that the Treasure Valley experinced. From Late May/Early June it began, and lasted till the first of 2023. We've been on the rise since (equity wise), and inventory stabilized itself as compared to buyers demand. With a slight gain in inventory currently, but coming down. Flat out, sellers are reluctant to sell. Hence why I say sellers are really selling out of necessity...not because they want to up and make a lateral move. Lets talk about buyer demand in 2023. Buyer demand increased as of Q1 to Q3. Regardless of fast interest rates rising (fear of missing out?....perhaps)....or maybe because people still need housing. Unless of course they prefer a tent, lol. The rising interest rates also kept sellers at bay. Why sell a home that they have high 2 to 4%, for a 6% or higher? This is what high interest rates do, and accomplishes the task of the Fed. Price stability. What these high interest rates will do is keep inventory at bay to buyers demand. Some sellers too, that you see the price drops on could also pull their homes from the market as they dont get interested buyers due to high interest rates. There are also a lot of sellers out there that are overpricing their homes. Hence the price drops. Not all sellers listen to our CMA's...suggested values. If you notice by the data, expireds are up this month. Its a sign that this is occuring. However though, in 2024, we could still see the the opposite of any continued marke correction. Like we have seen so far in 2023. Buyers buying regaldless of interest rates. We will have to wait until Q2 to really see how that pans out. I think you said that you don't see the holidays being a factor, but at this time of year...they always are. Plus back to school. Lets look at why our market does good though. That's the other factor to take a look at. It's not like the Treasure Valley has all the amenities of say a New York. Even Boise isn't te biggest of all cities. The reason....its because the Treasure Valley is "basically" a political boomtown. People desire to move here to escape the horrors of the blue States they come from. As long as those States continue to drive people out, this market will remain good. Diving further into the data, the buyers also coming here (as of late) can purchase more by cash means, than the means of a loan. And to say, overvalued? Well, we still have remote workers. They are usually not included in the overall median income fold, on paper. Most of the homeowners I know actuall ylive quite comfortably well. We also have the cheapest utilites in the Nation. It helps a little. We do get a lot of retiree's here, as well (that usually buy in cash). To suggest that I wish to create fomo to my watchers is not correct. I just go off the data, and what the economy/politics show me. If you would like to see specifically what cities are seeing some price declines around the Treasure Valley, please see Altos Research. It's a good tool for those that dont have direct access to the local MLS. I know most want to see the markets take a dive again, like in 08'. Why wouldn't anyone, right? Unless your a current homeowner. Housing is expensive. That's not debatable. But to expect that, or a continued market correction to our area, when higher interest rates is showing a level of price stability to both buyers and sellers alike, and in supply and demand...well, the data is not pointing to either. Could it, maybe? If we go to WWIII, or worse...lose our Status as the World Reserve Currency, we could. But do you want to see either of those happen, just to get a cheaper home price? Anyways...inventory would have to increase to market correction levels like we saw in 2022, really. To continue one (a Market Correction). Also, if you look historically at Mortgage Interst Rates over the years, it may be high considering the price of homes, but it's not "historically" high. As they go higher, I can guarantee sellers will be even more disdained from selling, as will buyers buying. So, again, even playing field....really. As the Fed furthers its conquest of quantative tightening, instead of easing (like they did for 10+ years)...which was responsible for rates in the ~3%, this can also keep rates higher, and for longer. 10 year Treasuries and MBS. They have their finger on the button with those. But to the point, the days of ~3%'s are over, and the American people know it. Hence why markets across the US did "impressively" in 2023 admits the negative talk and higher interest rates. One thing I totally agree, rates will not see any remote "sigh of" relief until the Fed cuts the FFR (which does not control Mortgage Interest Rates directly, but lets the 10 year Treasury Markets and MBS breathe...which does direlty affect.....cause they have been DEFENSIVE for some time now)...but one thing I can almost guarantee, when they do drop, buyers will return in droves...and with little inventory (if sellers are still reluctant to sell... and builders not building, which is currently the case)...we could see another spike in home prices. Like the pandemic. Thanks for the comment! Buyers and Sellers are waiting to see some results to the inflation fallout. They will be waiting. Oh, btw...have you seen that the Treasury Yields are starting to re-invert themselves? Hmmm.....maybe the Fed can come in for a soft landing after all.
Just re-reading your statement here (after my dissertation....sorry, lol). But, how do you know homes are dropping their prices in "large amounts?" Have you run a CMA on each subject property? Or perhaps your an appraiser? Or are you going off Zillow and Redfin's AVM's?....oh, and your right, the values that they are selling for is the value they are selling for thats on Redfin and Zillow. Where did I mention that they weren't? If I misworded something, my aplogies. But the list price refelcted is the list price they are asking for their property :).
Also, what does a typical offseason produce to you?
Maybe these homes you are looking at were overpriced to begin with....just food for thought. Not taking shots, so please don't take it that way :). As in the dissertation below, expireds are on the way up. That usually indicates that some started off to high, or they wish to sell their homes for the price they want, and that it's. Rememeber, most sellers price their homes higher...and why? Becuase of the sentimental value. A buyers purchase with their pocketbook in mind. Just FYI, we as Realtors should run a CMA to know whether a home is overvalued, or maybe even under. And no, a CMA is not an apprisial :)....nor am I an appraiser. If you're going off the Zillow or Redfin AVM, that is not an accurate value to compare the prices drops to. Trust me. LOL!.....I invite you to go back to some of the Zestimates...if the asking price drops, usually the Zestimate does too, about a few days to a week later.