I do not know when this will change, if ever... Even smart people are trapped in the fiat money world, cannot even imagine the solution: sound money. Let us talk the speculator's language, the consumers' language, the interventionista language, the sheeple controlling language etc. and screw the savers, screw the taxpayers, screw any decent person out there... But yes... unfortunately most people are also stuck in this fiat nightmare, very few can think outside the box. All clap, QE coming now, this is only kicking the can down the road once more... Unbelievable... The beatings will continue until morale improves. My two cents.
"Check out our Portfolio services. Hopefully you don't see the fine print where it shows that we're DOWN 26% YTD. Also, ignore the hypothetical performance data, it is NOT 3rd party backtested. Thanks for funding our future losses!"
Jeff, if you see all this as a supply shock and absolutely not as a monetary expansion event, then how come prices will not go back to the way they were?
Wait for these retailers just toss it in the landfill or ship it overseas like donated clothing, it cost too much to store. An ocean of unworn, unused, unsold merchandise, because for them to try to liquidate the inventory, it destroys future demand perpetuating the problem for years to come.
There will be no QE or halting of rate hikes until the core price indexes show less than 4% increases YOY. With the lag in housing being several quarters, this won't happen until sometime in 2023 at the earliest. Prepare for more QT and higher short term interest rates.
Another great podcast.. The Government and the Fed caused this mess.. Unlikely that they can solve the cost of living crisis.. New paid MarketInsider Pro subscriber..!!
They may "pivot" like the UK sort of didn't... but did... the bond buying salvaging an over leveraged pension thing. But when they do just those things alone... you'll see commodities and other prices jump in price like a vengeance. And they'll have to come back with even more interest rate hikes and even more QT. Because there's simply not enough stuff chasing the amount of money in the system. And they've caused horrific amounts of leverage in the system, irresponsible amounts that's going to bust no matter what they do... well they could try to monetize that, but that'll bust the entire economies of the world in Sri Lanka affaire.
The biggest drivers of inflation have been NOT Nike or Urban Outfitters but rather energy, housing and travel. And I don’t see any significant change in that outlook yet!!
I would add bad economic and monetary policy as significant contributors. In the United States, the Biden administration energy and spending policy is driving inflation.
Agreed, but the biggest problem currently is food inflation. Gas prices are going to go up substantially after the midterm because the FED will stop releasing from the reserve, OPEC will cut production, and Europe is going to start burning oil for electricity. The middle and lower class is getting rocked by Energy and food. I'm sure the FED will declare inflation dead while food and energy inflation still over 10%.
I'm dissenting. I'm betting that Disruptions + Declining economic activity + Eurodollar destruction = Higher orices. The word "inflation" has been obsolete since 2008, and so have been measures of it. In a post-2008 world in which every loan is collateralized and all collateral is hypothecated 50x, the new landscape is no longer fitted to our old words. The old terms are a hall of mirrors where we travel a long way and wind up where we started. Won't people be surprised when the Fed winds up hiking to 23%?
Yes, I'm convinced, the economy is very sick, there's nothing the Fed or the government can do to save it. Thanks Jeff and Steve, for your objeective analysis.
What I sense is the govt adding money into the system is not sparking spending BECAUSE that money is being used to pay CRITICAL debt down in the private sector.
@sandy - leverage! The new money is to pay old debt. Tables and chairs are tipped over ,music stopped and cards all over the floor! And there is a guy needing change for gas at the bar? No man i aint got no MONEY.
Food, energy, rent. Who cares how cheap Nikes are? This is where I disagree with these guys, energy inflation and food inflation is not over and rent is not coming down. Otherwise I normally think they are spot on
There is only one factor which is nobody talking about. This is the lack of supply from China. As long as the China will be in lockdown and the supply chains will be now restored there is no chance for lower inflation. Which will force FED for hiking rates even more not allowing them to start QE. Without QE yields will not move lower and bonds will not gain value.
Thanks for your work... I've been trading the markets for the past 40 years and you are one of the few financial commentators who really knows what is going on...
People have been loading up on student loan debt expecting it to be canceled since at least 2010. When the Obama administration nationalized student lending, the plan was always to socialize college funding.
How about fixing the real causes of current problems? For example, energy: the real problem is the crazy sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela. Lift the sanctions, you get plenty of supply. Same thing with fertlizer and food.
That's why 'someone' just blew up the pipelines - to ensure European govts don't have the option of giving up on energy sanctions when their industries start to collapse and populations revolt.
I do recommend going back to previous episodes, just keep in mind when they aired to stay in context. I believe their main lesson is that the Fed has little to no effect on things.
House price deflation prior two months fell as fast as winter 2009! CRIP DEATH. Mortgage rates has locked out most from their equity and now as rates fall so does house prices?
the issue with this is we are looking at energy prices moving as consumers will collapse...it is not deflation...basically 2008 was not deflation but more to do with rates being crashed now u cant drop energy prices and so rates will rise even further till u have liquidation
Build your local community! Know your farmer by name. Have a mechanic and a doctor who knows more than how to write a prescription. All these people should be so well known to you and so tight-knit. That when the criminal scumbags known as Government come and say somebody's an outlaw. You know to fight against the criminal scumbags.
And never once saying "I was wrong". And still having fools in the comments thanking you for your "great job awesome analysis"! Portfolio Shield is DOWN 26% YTD, including -4% since Mr Snider became an "advisor".
There will always be a large adjustment when rates go from 0% to 4% in short period but rates should level off there. Retailers are like famers, they always complain.. Globalisation caused the pandemic.. but no one wants to talk about that. IF globalisation is restored then when do we get Eboooolllla pandemic ? What happens then?..
Two guys speaking financial jargon, with terrible storytelling skills while slurring their speech out of pure excitement. Kind of useful but still way less than it could be
#WHEREISEMIL no joking, we miss you Emil.
I prefer the longer shows.
I do not know when this will change, if ever... Even smart people are trapped in the fiat money world, cannot even imagine the solution: sound money. Let us talk the speculator's language, the consumers' language, the interventionista language, the sheeple controlling language etc. and screw the savers, screw the taxpayers, screw any decent person out there... But yes... unfortunately most people are also stuck in this fiat nightmare, very few can think outside the box. All clap, QE coming now, this is only kicking the can down the road once more... Unbelievable... The beatings will continue until morale improves. My two cents.
thank you for the content, nice show, but it is just not the same without Emil. Hope he is well and back soon.
"Check out our Portfolio services. Hopefully you don't see the fine print where it shows that we're DOWN 26% YTD. Also, ignore the hypothetical performance data, it is NOT 3rd party backtested. Thanks for funding our future losses!"
Target said they had an inventory problem and would have to make deep discounts a couple of months ago. I didn't see a single discount.
Jeff, if you see all this as a supply shock and absolutely not as a monetary expansion event, then how come prices will not go back to the way they were?
Thanks guys very good content
where is Emil? this is his channel and nothing is said about him
he's under water
Wait for these retailers just toss it in the landfill or ship it overseas like donated clothing, it cost too much to store. An ocean of unworn, unused, unsold merchandise, because for them to try to liquidate the inventory, it destroys future demand perpetuating the problem for years to come.
There will be no QE or halting of rate hikes until the core price indexes show less than 4% increases YOY. With the lag in housing being several quarters, this won't happen until sometime in 2023 at the earliest. Prepare for more QT and higher short term interest rates.
Thanks y'all
1st
Another great podcast.. The Government and the Fed caused this mess.. Unlikely that they can solve the cost of living crisis..
New paid MarketInsider Pro subscriber..!!
That's very kind of you to help fund someone else's market losses.
Ocean container freight from Shanghai to Los Angeles now $1800 - down 90% from 14 months ago!
SVM, the best contra indicator on YT.
The Fed didnt spend at the retail level, but they sure did spend on MBSs and treasuries.
The Cayman Islands have a bite on Emil like a Cayman crocodile.
LET OUR PEOPLE GO
Thanks guys , missing Emils dry humour.
Where the heck is Emil?? Can he do solo episodes too?
They may "pivot" like the UK sort of didn't... but did... the bond buying salvaging an over leveraged pension thing.
But when they do just those things alone... you'll see commodities and other prices jump in price like a vengeance. And they'll have to come back with even more interest rate hikes and even more QT. Because there's simply not enough stuff chasing the amount of money in the system. And they've caused horrific amounts of leverage in the system, irresponsible amounts that's going to bust no matter what they do... well they could try to monetize that, but that'll bust the entire economies of the world in Sri Lanka affaire.
The biggest drivers of inflation have been NOT Nike or Urban Outfitters but rather energy, housing and travel. And I don’t see any significant change in that outlook yet!!
I would add bad economic and monetary policy as significant contributors. In the United States, the Biden administration energy and spending policy is driving inflation.
Agreed, but the biggest problem currently is food inflation.
Gas prices are going to go up substantially after the midterm because the FED will stop releasing from the reserve, OPEC will cut production, and Europe is going to start burning oil for electricity.
The middle and lower class is getting rocked by Energy and food.
I'm sure the FED will declare inflation dead while food and energy inflation still over 10%.
Exactly
what about +40% to M2?
I'm dissenting. I'm betting that
Disruptions + Declining economic activity + Eurodollar destruction = Higher orices.
The word "inflation" has been obsolete since 2008, and so have been measures of it.
In a post-2008 world in which every loan is collateralized and all collateral is hypothecated 50x, the new landscape is no longer fitted to our old words. The old terms are a hall of mirrors where we travel a long way and wind up where we started.
Won't people be surprised when the Fed winds up hiking to 23%?
All the new 2020-22 debt .. ‘you will own nothing and be happy’
I think QE is finished as a fed program
Yes, I'm convinced, the economy is very sick, there's nothing the Fed or the government can do to save it. Thanks Jeff and Steve, for your objeective analysis.
What I sense is the govt adding money into the system is not sparking spending BECAUSE that money is being used to pay CRITICAL debt down in the private sector.
Who is the beneficiary of the money that the government is adding to the system, and where does it come from?
@@mkaberli : directly, Capital markets benefit, however, indirectly we all lose because of the inflationary nature of printing
@sandy - leverage!
The new money is to pay old debt.
Tables and chairs are tipped over ,music stopped and cards all over the floor!
And there is a guy needing change for gas at the bar?
No man i aint got no MONEY.
What about food inflation????
Food, energy, rent. Who cares how cheap Nikes are? This is where I disagree with these guys, energy inflation and food inflation is not over and rent is not coming down. Otherwise I normally think they are spot on
When you say QE is on the horizon, do you mean 8 months away? That's the average time between last rate hike and first rate cut🤔
We need to pump Emil’s channel, it is a shame
Ugh. If steve is in, im out
Where is Emil?Did SVM kill him???
Has Steve captured emils channel? Would have been forseeable, however then I am out. Anyway time to reveal situation.
There is only one factor which is nobody talking about. This is the lack of supply from China. As long as the China will be in lockdown and the supply chains will be now restored there is no chance for lower inflation. Which will force FED for hiking rates even more not allowing them to start QE. Without QE yields will not move lower and bonds will not gain value.
I used to respect your views and listen daily but lately have been a contrarian indicator.
Where is Emil?
Thanks for your work... I've been trading the markets for the past 40 years and you are one of the few financial commentators who really knows what is going on...
Paid comment?
People have been loading up on student loan debt expecting it to be canceled since at least 2010. When the Obama administration nationalized student lending, the plan was always to socialize college funding.
Is Emil in Jail? or the Bahamas? The picture of him with water up to his chest may be fitting if he is in the Bahamas.
Same here, hoping for an answer eventualy lol
Awesome analysis guys. Data packed episode. Thank you for the educational experience.
Get your money out of the banks and into hard assets ASAP 🥇🥈🥇🥈👍
Portfolio Shield is DOWN 26% YTD.
Are you a paid commenter?
Does this channel have any content on what the central banks or regulatory regimes ought to be doing? Criticizing the Fed is only half of an answer.
How about fixing the real causes of current problems? For example, energy: the real problem is the crazy sanctions on Russia, Iran, Venezuela. Lift the sanctions, you get plenty of supply. Same thing with fertlizer and food.
That's why 'someone' just blew up the pipelines - to ensure European govts don't have the option of giving up on energy sanctions when their industries start to collapse and populations revolt.
Amen
I do recommend going back to previous episodes, just keep in mind when they aired to stay in context. I believe their main lesson is that the Fed has little to no effect on things.
Is the deflation going to show up in the next CPI, or still too early?
House price deflation prior two months fell as fast as winter 2009!
CRIP DEATH. Mortgage rates has locked out most from their equity and now as rates fall so does house prices?
One guy is doing all the talking
I think that wage inflation is going to be an issue for awhile yet!
Equities just want to have fun -un!
Great content, but if the editor could normalize the volume between Jeff and Steve it would make the video a lot easier to listen to.
the issue with this is we are looking at energy prices moving as consumers will collapse...it is not deflation...basically 2008 was not deflation but more to do with rates being crashed now u cant drop energy prices and so rates will rise even further till u have liquidation
Two parts... Mind explaining the rationale?
too long in one video i guess
More clicks, more ads, more pennies in YT revenue to fund their deep market losses.
Build your local community! Know your farmer by name. Have a mechanic and a doctor who knows more than how to write a prescription. All these people should be so well known to you and so tight-knit. That when the criminal scumbags known as Government come and say somebody's an outlaw.
You know to fight against the criminal scumbags.
agreed 👍
so basically death by inflation...
Imagine being this obstinate and wrong for 3 years
And never once saying "I was wrong".
And still having fools in the comments thanking you for your "great job awesome analysis"!
Portfolio Shield is DOWN 26% YTD, including -4% since Mr Snider became an "advisor".
Great with 2 parts. Helps me digest the information. Too many talk for too long.
Who cares about clothes and appliances?
So... are you expecting stagflation then?
Are you serious?
So.... buy gold?
There will always be a large adjustment when rates go from 0% to 4% in short period but rates should level off there. Retailers are like famers, they always complain..
Globalisation caused the pandemic.. but no one wants to talk about that. IF globalisation is restored then when do we get Eboooolllla pandemic ? What happens then?..
i saw that on fox new s as well-
If you're going to pretend to be Emil, at least wear your hair in a ponytail.
Cool analysis, thanks!
Are you a paid commenter?
Two guys speaking financial jargon, with terrible storytelling skills while slurring their speech out of pure excitement. Kind of useful but still way less than it could be