The Fatal Flaw that Doomed the Wagner Group
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- Опубликовано: 28 май 2024
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The Wagner Group's mutiny in June 2023 marked the beginning of the end of its leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin. Although officially pardoned for his actions, someone within Russia was actually just waiting for the right time to take him out. However, it was a decision Wagner made many years beforehand that would eventually seal their fate. This is the story of how not to structure a military organization (unless you want to make millions at the cost of your own life).
0:00 The End of Wagner
0:47 Why We Will Never Know Exactly What Happened
2:13 Why the Kremlin Kept Wagner Around
4:56 How Wagner's Plausible Deniability Ended
5:46 Wagner's Waning Military Capacity
7:57 Wagner's Weak Link
9:43 Wagner's Corporate Structure
11:28 Why Succession Plans Are Critical
13:03 How Better-Managed Organizations Deter Decapitation Strikes
14:20 Why a Simultaneous Attack Doomed Wagner
15:48 Why Wagner Put its Leadership on the Same Plane
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Prigozhin has however set the record for the highest window a Russian oligarch has fallen out of.
Not sure he fell out the window rather than with the window.
Hope him and that dirty Nazi parasite Utkin suffered.
Let’s send some Republican Nazis up in some planes together….
@@jessewhittemore784 Yeah, but you won't get sucked out of a window.
If you are standing around 3 meters away from the airlock on the space station and it opens, you wouldn't have any difficulty not getting sucked in.
Most hollywood movies severely increases the power of air escaping out of high pressure environments to low pressure for dramatic effect.
Lawn darts champion of Russia.
@@jessewhittemore784 Or he died from the shrapnel before hitting the ground
I still can’t believe that entire plane fell out of a window.
🤣🤣🤣
It was a very big window
How long before Putler pushes the whole world out a window? (/s... kind of...)
@@sam8404 The man is crazy enough and power hungry enough to do something like that... Unless he get's "Gaddhafied" first...
@@sam8404You're assuming his nukes work. We also have super advanced stuff we don't tell anyone we could wipe out nukes before they are used and can shoot down 80% of flying ones at least
Prigohzin parachuted out of the plane D.B.Cooper style three minutes before it was hit/sploded. Steven Seagal picked him up on the ground and they're currently planning to hijack a submarine.
Prigozhin and Seagal open the hatch and climb down the stairs into the dimly lit submarine. Lukashenko is standing at the command post.
"Gentlemen. I'm assembling a team."
*ROLL CREDITS*
More like "Dive, dive". "This isn't a submarine". "SURFACE, SURFACE !!"
I like to imagine my Steven Seagal as the one from South Park.
@@sam8404
That's the one and only Steven Seagal.
That’s a new one.
I like it.
Prigozhin was a dead man walking the moment he was trucking into Moscow, whether he should've and have wanted to get the job done is unknown and maybe unknowable. Why all three got on the plane might be a mystery for the history books
Pride and stupidity. Which also happens to be the national motto of the Ruzzians.
He was done when he started bellyaching about the Russian army shorting him munitions. The entire general staff in Moscow was working overtime to get rid of him.
He was on borrowed time after Wagner couldn't take Bakhmut quickly, like he promised. The convict-fuelled human wave attacks, the consequent casualties and the time it took for that Pyrric victory was probably the Jenga block that will cause the Russian Tower to ultimately collapse. If he had taken Bakhmut in, say, 2 weeks: the Russian military would have been humiliated, but Prigozhin would then be seen as a threat to Putin and that would have meant civil war. Not taking Bakhmut would have meant that the Ukraine war was over. Arguably, by depleting Wagner in Bakhmut, Putin survived.
hehe trucking into moscow
He was always a dead man. Look at all the heroes of DNR LNR. Batman, Motorola, zaharchenko, stremousov, and many more. That’s putins signature, he uses people and when they know too much he cleans up any trace of them. Anyone that Putin uses eventually ends up dead
My takeaway from this is that he really should have focussed on his catering business
Or Takeaway !
He wanted to be the HotDog King of Zimbabwe
should've
Yeah.
AP World History text 2123
Yevgeny Prigozhin: ran a Russian catering empire. Died in a plane crash during a corporate raid of a side hustle business.
Too true my man 🤣🤣
more like
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Another thing to consider - Wagner was not capable of fighting against NATO military forces really in any capacity. Look up the Battle of Kasham - approx 500 fighters under Wagner and other pro-Syrian Govt forces attacked a HQ manned by about 40 American special forces. Despite the overwhelming numbers difference and the American forces holding back as to try not to start a war with Russia (until Russia denied involvement over and over and they were eventually given permission to fight back), not a single American died. Despite the overwhelming numbers advantage, the Wagner forces all had to retreat, suffering many casualties and deaths, because they could not keep up with American tactics and air support.
So, where are UKR's f16's ? Air support; you said it.
That's more a indication of how American military hardware perform, not how Wagner would operate on a more level playing field
Counter point, Wagner was the only unit to produce a y results in the Winter offensive. They where clearly more cpabale then most of the MoDs troops
@@linmal2242 Cirre tly in use for pilot training. You dont wa t to end up with crash statistcs that rivel the Admiral Kurznetsov
@@PropheticShadeZ Ummm, what? Military hardware and the ops and tactics that accompany it are the primary measure by which the difference in performance is delineated. How else would you compare the difference? Have the soldiers on each side take a sports combine and IQ test?
I mean, you're technically correct. If Wagner had American military hardware, American military intelligence, American logistics, American training, American financial backing, and American organizational command then the playing field would have been more level. But then they wouldn't be Wagner, they'd just be an American military force.
It's probably all true. However, I just have to say, if there were ever a group that might have wanted to have all the top leadership fake their deaths at once (presumably to be spirited to Africa shortly thereafter), it would be these three. The more boring, but probably correct, explanation is that they were just arrogant. But it's a breathtaking lack of understanding of how power works, from people who had spent their careers in the world of raw, unfettered displays of power.
I was thinking this too. One reason for all 3 to take the same flight would be to fake their deaths. I'm not sure if it is feasible to do this with 3 sacrificial body doubles and the others on board the plane not thinking they are about to be killed. It is easy for me to imagine that if I was one of the Wagner leaders post failed coup, I would take a few gold bricks and hide in Brazil or something. But, you make a good point about power. Dudes with egos like that don't want peace and comfort, they want power and problems.
Theres something we’re missing that makes their actions make sense right? Right? 😅
faking death might be tricky due to the FSB good information update. if they did fake their deaths then we may wait many years if they decided to pop up if Putin falls from grace
Faking their deaths seems unlikely because there was little to no evidence of any of their assets moving prior to the crash. One assumes that they wouldn't want to fake their deaths only to live as paupers.
@@seanmorgan1759But do we really know that for sure? Wagner's funding is a black box. They could have easily laundered that money to a private secret account. And they may have someone below them but still fairly high rank to act as the puppet of Wagner. Since bot their finance and structure is unknown, we cannot rule this out. It is precisely this secrecy that they could do this and no one would know.
A 19 minute video to say, "Don't have all your leader-shaped eggs in one plane-sized basket."
Good stuff.
One of them was an egg-shaped egg though.
Is that really all you got from this?
@@extragoogleaccount6061egg-shaped leaders in a basket-sized plane.
Part of me wonders if, perhaps, the three men were coerced onto the same plane for the return trip? Prigozhin and Utkin's bodies were on the plane, but do we have any proof they were alive and well at this point? Seems like the thing the FSB would try to stage.
Or they are alive
Nope. The're dead as doornails. There's no reason Prigozhin would be allowed to live and escape freely. Why would putin EVER let a man who wanted to overthrow hinm survive? Especially a man who has tremendous military experience, some political capital and a loyal group of mercenaries? Stay ouf of conspriacy theories. Be realistic. @@Joso997
If the Kremlin was able to control their movements to that degree via threats or physical force, I don't think they go to the trouble of shooting a plane out of the air with a missile. I would expect something less high profile. Like poison or even separate car crashes and/or window accidents. There was also a handful of other passengers and a 3 person flight crew that would either need to be super clueless or require their own Kremlin threats/force to get them to agree to this mission. @@_DeadEnd_
@@Joso997 that's a nice argument you've got there, senator
now how about you back it up with a source
I dont understand the fixation on them all being in one aircraft, russia has more than one SAM...
I just came to commend you on the subtle letter gradient, superb.
Oh thank you!
A couple of points not discussed. First the Wagner leaders may have considered that a missile strike on the plane would be too obvious, and therefore would not be attempted. And they had a second plane on the route, so they have have counted on that to prevent Putin from striking. Secondly, they may have also figured if Putin wanted them dead, they didn't have much of a chance to stay alive, so it was pointless to implement security measures.
It seemed strange to me that we were getting reports of Prigz traveling via plane in and out of Russia before this incident. Takes balls to trust your high-profile ass isn't getting blown out of the air. I don't think even Bunker Grandpa feels safe flying in Russia.
A couple of really good points!
I think that last point could be it.
I wonder if they were all looking at each other on the plane like "hmm this is not a good idea"
I'm just hoping Prigozhin doesn't become a Martyr/Heroic Idol to the Russian people or to a future, non-Putin, Western-friendly presidency. The last thing that needs to happen is to put the vile Wagner Group on a pedestal.
western friendly presidency....in Russia...(hysterical laugh)
@@Iv4Bez Maybe someone like Gorbachev would qualify?
every group put on a pedestal really don't deserve it once you get to know the actual people involved. You get put there merely for being powerful. That's it.
@@Iv4Bez that's called "occupation", in the common tongue.
@@kristjanpeil Not sure an occupation would sit wellbwith the Americans after the Afghanistan fiasco.
16:10 Miscalculations over self-importance are also incredibly common with narcissistic and psychopathic people, they tend to over-estimate their own abilities and under-estimate everyone else's. I'd guess the heads of Wagner were probably over-represented in those two groups, and hence, suffered from the associated personality weaknesses, much like Putin himself (re: believing his sycophants about 'easily' occupying Ukraine).
The only way Prigozhin could have gotten out of this alive was to win. Failure to succeed in full doomed him regardless of the deal. Once you commit to an act like that, you need to follow through. Commitment is key for almost ever aspect of life, not just a fighting force.
I think William already said it in a previous video, but if you plan on killing the king, you better not miss
"He who would dare to challenge the king had better be assured to kill him."
Agreed
Considering he didn’t defect to the West, yes.
"No half measures"
I came to see lines and maps.
Same
I love the suspense music.
As a business continuity/operational resilience expert; this review on "loss of critical personnel" and key person risk was brilliant.
FYI: in the USA the Chief of Staff or Chairman thereof is not actually in the chain of command; he is just what it says a staff officer. Each branch of the military has a Chief of Staff and one is appointed to sit at the head of the table as the Chairman.
I think the greatest mystery in all this is whether prighozin could make an acceptable grilled cheese sandwich. We’ll never know now.
Probably perfected the art of making it off the radiator in prison.
@@Combobaracker20 fucking years!
If the plane was shot down by a missile strike and there were TWO identical planes just miles apart, how did anyone know which one was to be targeted. If it was an on board bomb, then it must have been planted at the last moment once it was confirmed who was flying in which aircraft. Only at the highest level of intelligence could this have been accomplished. And once you reach that level, only Putin himself could have approved the action.
“How did anyone know which one…”
Flight logs on the land
Or they were dead before 'boarding' the plane.
No, not only putin. It could still just be the FSB or GRU acting independently. And the GRU is military intelligence so there is a good chance that shoigu might have been behind it.
Not to mention that utkin and most wagner veterans used to be GRU operatives. This power struggle was basically nothing more than military infighting, which is why the march for justice targetted shoigu and not putin.
Flight logs, radar data or even just looking up from the ground would give them that infomation.
FSB, like the CIA. they plan ahead success or failure
I don't believe anyone would execute Prigozhin without Putin's approval. Two aircraft left 2 minutes apart with the same flight plan, therefore, who was on the 2nd plane and why were they arrested and disappeared. And your assessment is correct he would have meant the demise of Ukraine.
How do we know that they weren't forced onto the single plane together, or even that they were alive before the crash?
Any pilot who sees three body bags brought into his plane (or three men brought in at gunpoint) is going to have second thoughts about following the flight path.
Considering that this isn’t like the Argentine ‘Dirty War’, it is very unlikely that they were incapacitated or forced onto the plane. They miscalculated, and paid the price.
Can you cover PMC Wagner: The Second Front? As much as I can tell it's a little talked about planned media initiative by Prigozhin that would focus on domestic issues instead of issues in Ukraine, hence the name Second Front.
It was first announced on the 26th in his personal telegram channel then elaborated on in a Wagner post on the 30th. Later on he did some touring and some speeches throughout Russia that to many seemed like he was throwing his hat into the political ring. He of course denied this.
Yes pleeeeeease :)
This sounds very interesting.
Always a lovely channel to watch. No matter what topic, you have the ability to explain it well. Plus the free easter-eggs planted into each and every video. A teacher well worth his standing.
Amazing video just lacked the anticipated lines on maps
It was hubris... Prigozhin flew too close to the sun....
Exactly ‼️Icarus 2.0
No one will ever be able to explain with certainty why Prigozhin did literally any of the things he did. Truly one of the biggest wtf moments in recent modern history.
I admit to chuckling at the "Prighost.. zhin?" bit 😆
Three months later in the cheesy action movie version of the world.
Putin: "Ha, ha, ha, now I will kill all the world's lobsters so I will never have an allergic reaction again!"
Prigozhin: *crashes through window with a parachute on his pack* "That's what you think."
Putin: "... Where you up there the whole time?"
Prigozhin: "I don't want to talk about it."
In some planning room:
'Somehow, Prigozhin returned.'
"The Return of Prigozhin - it's not Prigover"
McBaine?!?!?!
William! That Boogaloo rhyme time was sublime. Great referencing and humor bro 😎
It’s worth noting that Prigozhin died exactly two months after the mutiny started. I can’t be the only one who sees the clear intent to send a message.
Thank you for keeping on it!
Also, can I just say that the editing is once again on point? The implosion animation on the Russian flag killed me in the best way possible. Honorable mention to the Steve Jobs moment (not going to spoil it for those still watching).
Fantastic use of visual imagery to explain everything so effectively!
Great analysis, as usual. Very much enjoyed this.
Also time passing tends to lower one's guard. It's hard or impossible to stay hyper-vigilant forever.
You have the best content about the war.
It was said that a second plane was on that route, it landed in st petersberg a minute before the accident, it took off 20 minutes later, went to moscow, then somewhere down south, south sudan maybe.
Thank you for the great videos and hard work.
Great analysis as always!
Insightful as always. Thanks for the video William !
BTW, I wonder if the actual founder of Wagner was Dmitry Utkin and that Prigozhin was brought in later to provide financing for expansion, sales connections and to serve as the public face of the group since Utkin had so much messy baggage attached to his name (and skin.)
What, mean it would've been bad optics to have a literal Nazi with SS tattoos participating in a "de-Nazification" op?
But yeah, it does kinda seem like Utkin was the organizer and head honcho, and Prigozhin was more of the face and connections guy.
Re: who was on the plane and who did it? The answers are Prigozhin and Putin - respectively. No one with any degree of sanity thinks otherwise.
Well done. Thank you. 😎
Very good content!
Nothing to say other than great content: thank you for having timely and excellent videos my dude.
14:47 "Thunder Run 2: Electric Boogaloo would then come to, and this time would be the full follow-through." Someone was having WAY too much fun when he was writing this.
I would pay for these essays. This is so well explained and researched.
Intreating. Even though the premiere has not started yet
My school cafetaria made such good food my younger brother still says that nobody else can make some dishes they could.
This is an exceptional report thank you
Superb presentation.
Superb!
When your videos end im like dang it i want more!
Thank you.
How was it that Prigozhin did not know how Russia operated and what the risk was and just who do you think talked him into it? He seemed a bit niece.
“There ain’t no rest for the wicked “ 😂😂👌
Always like to see a "Cage the elephant" reference in the wild. Carry on with your work Vault Hunter!
William Spaniel. Great analysis as wresting.always. 👍. Very int
Always love your videos, it's fantastic analysis. I'd love to know what your sources of news are?
When are you going to make an audio version of your book?
won't buy the book, might buy the audio version
I would buy it
Would you be happy with a different narrator instead? Or specifically William?
@@bot_pepper.4029 what are you a marketing Bot? ;)
I'd like to hear the original, so yes, william gotta do it. I'd like to imagine a kind of a university lecture
nah not a bot, just my online nickname is Pepper but thats such a common word, and so Bot Pepper started as a joke from CSGO you know playing like a bot (badly) haha@@PracticeNine I would also like William to do it.
top shelf information as always. i always enjoy these videos and feel more informed for watching. thank you for making them
I figured it was something about a weakest link in the chain. Didn't realize it was about Wagner, but it makes perfect sense now. Maybe no lines on maps, but a couple planes on steak is pretty neat imo!
Babe! Wake up! The new William Spanial just dropped!
I love your dry joke delivery dude. Its so good.
There is a test, for those who think they are indispensable to an Organization, fill a bucket of water, have them stick their hand in the bucket of water down to their wrist. then pull it out of the bucket, measure the hole in the water once they have pulled their hand out.
Feel better, Bill! I just got out of a month of pneumonia, myself. That shit, as they say, is no joke.
Nice Cage the Elephant reference there.
Let’s go!!
I always look forward to these videos. One day I'll look back on them and remember what happened in chwentychwentythree.
You made me Laugh Out Loud regarding the Children's Lunches !!!
This makes a lot of sense
Thunder run II… Instant classic!
Hi William!
Prighostin LOL. legit did a spit take at that. thanks for another interesting video! keep up the great work.
There's a saying "don't put your eggs in one basket", or plane in this one.
Well done WS
What was the last thing going through Prigozhin 's mind?
The engine block
Thunder Run 2: Electric boogaloo actually sounds like it would be a blast both figuratively and realistically.
🇺🇦🙏great analysis , thanks from Ukraine ❤
13:32 lmfao that editing totally got me on the first viewing I totally thought that was biden and then it panned to reveal Elaine from Seinfeld in veep lmfao well done
That actually was Biden!
@Gametheory101 no f way! That's crazy it totally didn't look like him from behind, still great editing and great video thanks for the reply!
I will never understand why Prigozhin didnt fall back to Africa. If hed done that and put someone else in charge of Ukrwinian Front operations he would probably still be alive.
"The graveyards are full of indispensable men”.
~Charles De Gaulle
We don't say words like fatal or flaw in these parts. - Kremlin
I think that the pudin took the bosses discreetly then brought down the plane so as not to arouse suspicion.
pudin is so scared that he has declared control over the all militias.
showing old video to confuse them . all to avoid more internal problems.
I think the most likely scenario is that they didnt care what haplened to Wagner if they were dead.
the troll farm guy irked quite a few Americans too!
*thunder run 2?* lol. reminds me of IASIP thunder gun. no regret no surrender. *no one left behind*
Cage the Elephant lyrics come up in the strangest places..
You should make a video on the causes of the Russia-Ukraine war, I don't know anywhere else I could learn about that subject.
A mistake? Come on, maybe they got too big for their own security, but more likely their families were threatened? The look in Prighozins face, in Roston-on-Don, when all those people were surrounding him and shaking his hand, he knew what was coming. He turned back because he either didn't want to put Surovikin in a worse scenario or/and his wife and children were under threat. He ironically said when he went to Belarus that the hotel had no windows. Anyway all those guys were people who had done terrible things they knew their death was coming one way or the other
What THE fatal precisely was has eluded me
Word
The transition from peppers on a steak into little Wagner logos was inspired.
I bought the book and I enjoyed it , informative and entertaining
I forgot I wanted to get an autographed copy , (cost $50 I’m kidding ) more but well worth the extra cost .I did buy and read it so know I know a🎉little things , that could make me dangerous .
I cannot fault any of the reasoning and I dare say that one of the possibilities discussed eg lack of resources to take multiple flights, inability to co-ordinate security for that and so on, it's still amazes me that they took such a risk. My conclusion is, again as alluded to, that they were given emphatic assurances of support and safety from the very top and they really genuinely believed that.
Weirdly enough the same organisational problem that plagued Wagner seems to also be present in Russia. Or can you imagine a Russia that stays stable without Putin? This super steep hierarchy problem might even be baked into the entirety of russian culture.
That is correct. The problems of one are directly reflected in the other. Russia will likely, but not certainly, enter a period of extreme instability following the death of Putin. There is a hierarchy problem baked in Russian culture. But the probability at any particular of a strong new leader emerging historically is equal to the probably of a weak bad leader emerging. Putin's emergence at the time as a strong leader seemed total improbable.
Looking back, I think that Prigozhin was allowed to live until after that Africa-russia summit took place. African leaders had to be assured of the russian military support. Prigozhin was made to attend and shake hands and also to make that video, supposedly in Africa.
My favorite part was when Putin said "It's Prigover!" and then Shoigued all over the Wagner Group.
The USA (and William) should think about Erik Prince when discussing a state and non-state actor. There are parallels here.