Support the channel with a 'like' and comment below. Are there any stocks in your portfolio that you're thinking about taking a profit on? Any that you've taken profits on before (and regretted it)?
Really enjoyed the video Nathan. I don’t mind waiting a week or two for new videos when the quality of the video is outstanding and you have the data to back up your argument. Keep going!
Thanks, John! I have aspirations of doing a video per week but work and family are preventing that regularity. Appreciate your understanding and support!
Great video Nathan! I really enjoyed your series on ETFs. It would be really cool to see a video about building a dividend based, all ETF portfolio. I don't really see too many videos with that content on RUclips. Keep up the great work!!
Thanks Nathan, you are a great help for those who do their hard earned money into investing. But I wonder when people just look at the 52 week high list for good stock ideas will end up buying the stocks on an overpriced territory and ends up selling on a downturn.
@@dougroberts3643 yeah man. All my stock picks have lost me money. I'm still making money selling covered calls but would've had way more profits selling covered calls on ETF's lol
i dont know about this.. it makes sense for the momentum factor, but what about the value factor? the stock going to 50 and then going to 1k would be a 20x increase. the stock going to 200 and then going to 1k would be a 5x increase. so it sounds plausible, that the last outcome is more likely, because the upside is simply less
I supposed this was the case based on common sense about the market where winners often "take it all" especially in the tech space. But it's so nice to have a study to back it up. Best investment content as always on your channel 💘
Hello Nathan, I really appreciate 1. your depth of research & 2. the calm & realistic tone of your presentation. Too many of the stock/finance videos on youtube come off as a used car sales pitch.
Another fantastic video, I don't know how I missed it. One thing I would like to point out is that fledgling companies might be losing at the beginning before they become giants. We saw that with our Apple stocks; we got them when they were like $10 and then another time when they were like $25. We had saved all the statements from then, and the stock was so volatile and was almost constantly in the negative. But, now look at Apple. So, along with your great advice, I think we also need to understand if the company (stock) will become a future giant or not (and which is so difficult to understand).
Yes, that is where your thought process about the future of a business has to come in play. There were no numbers for AAPL back in 90s to suggest you should buy it. So it's the ability to imagine the future and understand where this company fits into it. That's really hard; I'm not smart enough for that, so I tend to look for companies that are already established and dominant.
I can't find your other comment (maybe you deleted) but feel free to share any interesting links to other sites or videos. I'm 100% for education and if it's valuable to subscribers, I don't care if it's my content. So link away!
I think the term "Taking profits" comes from swing/long term trading where it can make sense. Big trend of retail investors and sometimes above, getting confused about trading and investing strategies. Many traders also suck at investing because they always fall on their old habits.
Great insight and content Nathan - thanks so much. Question - is there an actively managed ETF that separates the Russell 3000 winners from the long term losers, and invests in those winners...?
Thanks a lot. This is the awesome channel with very useful information. MTUM is perfect model for long-term investors. Could you make a video with your thoughts about a new ETF "QQQA" (QQQ with momentum effect). Guys, like Nathan to see this comment.
interesting food for thought. tough cause a lot of stocks seem to crazy spike momentarily, then fall and don't look to recover for a long time. Gotta watch out for those. imo, the faster something rises, the faster it could crash, better to take profits on highly volatile stocks on quick jumps unless you have very high confidence in it
@@timothyn4699 Taking profits in companies that are losing money (like HCMC) is probably a good idea. A winning stock, on the other hand, evidence doesn't back up at all.
great vid Nathan.ive just got into investments, especially crypto in the last 4 weeks.crash course on how to loose a couple of grand in a short period of time! lol .this vid has helped to answer some of the long term queries i have floating around in my head. all of been doing is buying and selling virtually everything within that time. what this has told me is to make sure i have a bit of everything ,rather than everything of one bit..many thanks
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA When the price is lower than I sold for minus taxes paid on profits. If not able, look for other opportunities is my approach. Taking partial profits and leaving a fraction of the position is satisfying to my mindset. Watching a stock i'm holding revert back to the price I purchased for after years of holding is detrimental to it.
Thanks for sharing this great video. I do have a question though. If the Crittenden & Wilcox report was published in 2004, how could it include data from the Russell 3000 index from 2005 and 2006?
Nathan, thanks again for a great video. However, I do not get the point you make @ 05:09 ... am I confused / get something wrong ? "Of the 3000 stocks, 75% added no return", to quote you. Then you continue to say that 1,493 went up 300% or more. How is this possible - basically, it would leave 25% or less, leaving around 750 stocks in the "have gained" camp.
Great video! Would it be prudent preserve your gains in a big crash with stop losses and re buy at bottom, or have the results been better to ride it out and just keep adding at the bottom?
Great as always, Nathan! Do you think from the fact that you showed in this videos that investing only via ETFs (market + factor ETFs) would be a better choice, with same/ higher return in lower risk? Or perhaps to invest in a highly diversified portfolio (50+ stocks) so that you are able to fit more in such distribution and have higher chances of picking "the big winners"?
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA thanks for the reply. Just to be clear, you mean a equal distribution (50/50) between ETFs and stocks? Or you mean a portfolio of multiple stocks, each one with this specific share and from that just observe them and look for new ones to invest?
@@luisguilhermeresende9286 Just the $5,000 into each stock. Not a 50/50 split. Just 100% individual stocks. But each person's use case might be different. It's knid of like a hybrid between equal and market cap weighted.
Winning the loser's game. One thing I look for in a high flying stock is "PE Compression". An example is TSLA. At one point the stock had a PE ratio over 1000! Today after appreciating over 18,000% the PE has shrunk to 377...!!
What a bargain! 😉 Interesting concept; basically looking for stocks growing fundamentals faster than the stock price. In Tesla’s case, you may be seeing the base effect of earning 0.01 per share to 0.03. Tripling off a near zero base could be mathematically deceptive.
Thanks for another good video, your content is always thought provoking. Is the same true for a portfolio of ETFs and mutual funds in different sectors? Let's say one allocates $1000 to VGT, VHT, XLY, XLE and VGT has 40% return in one year and others return 10% and sector flows indicate that market money is being diverted to consumer discretionary. Conventional wisdom might call for trimming some VGT and allocated to XLY. Does the theory in this video call for keeping the money in VGT?
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA Holding "winners" and paring down "losers". Most stocks seem to have significant price volatility over very long time frames, some of it quite random.
Is there an ETF for this or for another index? I guess there was one for sp500 but they might be rebalancing every quarter, not interested in mega caps anyway. A 3T company will not go 10x.
Doesn't your risk increase as your position becomes a larger portion of your portfolio? Using a hypothetical 10 stock portfolio, say one of those stocks is enron. Enron just keeps winning while the rest of your stocks languish and you end up with 95% allocation to enron. When the enron scandal breaks, you lose 95% of your portfolio as opposed to the 10% you would have lost if you kept your portfolio balanced. It seems to me that, especially in a roth where capital gains aren't taxed, some degree of rebalancing makes good sense from a risk management standpoint
Thank you for another very insightful video. Please avoid the background music in your future videos. It doesn’t add anything to your message, actually I find it distracting (and annoying).
Hi Nathan One think I learned from your videos is even the viewers should also have some knowledge or some idea about what they are doing. Thank you for making such videos, I always play back your videos to understand the logic what you are trying to explain Last but not least Is, you always respond to every comment on your video. I really like that
Good 'Food for Thought' video, which I am sure some of fellow subscribers will relate to if they have been holding on to their losing positions for any given time. Would this strategy be similar to holding a long position in FFTY or a similar fund/ETF?
Support the channel with a 'like' and comment below. Are there any stocks in your portfolio that you're thinking about taking a profit on? Any that you've taken profits on before (and regretted it)?
Great video. How do you select the 52 wk high portfolio? Are you averaging a stock's price increase over a certain # of years? Thx.
@@merc95 It's not necessarily a portfolio. You can look up 52 week highs and lows online.
Really enjoyed the video Nathan. I don’t mind waiting a week or two for new videos when the quality of the video is outstanding and you have the data to back up your argument. Keep going!
Thanks, John! I have aspirations of doing a video per week but work and family are preventing that regularity. Appreciate your understanding and support!
Great video, thank you
I love these type of videos, I felt it was gonna have a momentum takeaway early on in the video. Let your winners win, well there it is
There you go! I’ll have to be more cryptic at the start of the next one. 😉
Great video Nathan! I really enjoyed your series on ETFs. It would be really cool to see a video about building a dividend based, all ETF portfolio. I don't really see too many videos with that content on RUclips. Keep up the great work!!
Thanks, John. I’ll consider that for future content. Appreciate the suggestion
Thanks Nathan, you are a great help for those who do their hard earned money into investing. But I wonder when people just look at the 52 week high list for good stock ideas will end up buying the stocks on an overpriced territory and ends up selling on a downturn.
Basically just convincing me to invest in ETF's more instead of individual stocks
Are you convinced
Sure ;)
@John Atallah
That's exactly what I was thinking. I've been struggling with this considering I have an act for picking more losers than winners.
@@dougroberts3643 yeah man. All my stock picks have lost me money. I'm still making money selling covered calls but would've had way more profits selling covered calls on ETF's lol
Excellent information as always Nathan! Let your winners keep growing 📈 Enjoyed watching 👍
Thanks, John!
Great video Nathan. Reminds me of the 80/20 Pareto Rule.
Spot on, Harold. Almost called out the Pareto Principle in the video but didn’t.
Bad idea if young and growing. Depends what stage of investing you’re in of course.
i dont know about this.. it makes sense for the momentum factor, but what about the value factor?
the stock going to 50 and then going to 1k would be a 20x increase.
the stock going to 200 and then going to 1k would be a 5x increase.
so it sounds plausible, that the last outcome is more likely, because the upside is simply less
Studies have shown holding over long periods is better. Just 2/3 best days missed is a lot of missed returns
Correct
I supposed this was the case based on common sense about the market where winners often "take it all" especially in the tech space. But it's so nice to have a study to back it up. Best investment content as always on your channel 💘
Pareto Principal in action. 😉 Appreciate the nice comments, Karl!
Hello Nathan, I really appreciate 1. your depth of research & 2. the calm & realistic tone of your presentation. Too many of the stock/finance videos on youtube come off as a used car sales pitch.
Thanks, Dave!
Well considered content as usual. Keep up the great work.
Thanks!
Another fantastic video, I don't know how I missed it. One thing I would like to point out is that fledgling companies might be losing at the beginning before they become giants. We saw that with our Apple stocks; we got them when they were like $10 and then another time when they were like $25. We had saved all the statements from then, and the stock was so volatile and was almost constantly in the negative. But, now look at Apple. So, along with your great advice, I think we also need to understand if the company (stock) will become a future giant or not (and which is so difficult to understand).
Yes, that is where your thought process about the future of a business has to come in play. There were no numbers for AAPL back in 90s to suggest you should buy it. So it's the ability to imagine the future and understand where this company fits into it. That's really hard; I'm not smart enough for that, so I tend to look for companies that are already established and dominant.
A completely divergent analysis than Michael Burry’s views on several levels.
Ok ✅
Very interesting video. Thanks for your efforts.
Thanks, Bob!
Excellent video!
Thank you very much!
You rock, Nathan !
Thanks, Aoyama!
Another very interesting and informative video. Thanks, Nathan.
Thanks, Rob!
I can't find your other comment (maybe you deleted) but feel free to share any interesting links to other sites or videos. I'm 100% for education and if it's valuable to subscribers, I don't care if it's my content. So link away!
I think the term "Taking profits" comes from swing/long term trading where it can make sense.
Big trend of retail investors and sometimes above, getting confused about trading and investing strategies. Many traders also suck at investing because they always fall on their old habits.
Traders and investors are different people, I think. ;)
Thank you for sharing 🙏🏽
You’re welcome!
Watched and liked, thanks!
Thanks, Jason!
thank you very much for sharing your knowledge with us.
You’re welcome!
Great insight and content Nathan - thanks so much. Question - is there an actively managed ETF that separates the Russell 3000 winners from the long term losers, and invests in those winners...?
Not sure about the Russell, but momentum factor is as close as you can get.
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA As in MTUM? What do you think of MTUM vs BRK.B?
Thanks a lot. This is the awesome channel with very useful information. MTUM is perfect model for long-term investors. Could you make a video with your thoughts about a new ETF "QQQA" (QQQ with momentum effect). Guys, like Nathan to see this comment.
Great suggestion!
Pareto Principle, or the law of of the vital few.
Spot on!
interesting food for thought. tough cause a lot of stocks seem to crazy spike momentarily, then fall and don't look to recover for a long time. Gotta watch out for those. imo, the faster something rises, the faster it could crash, better to take profits on highly volatile stocks on quick jumps unless you have very high confidence in it
Not better to take profit. Evidence does not back that up at all.
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA I lost several thousand dollars by not taking a profit (sooner) in hcmc
@@timothyn4699 Taking profits in companies that are losing money (like HCMC) is probably a good idea. A winning stock, on the other hand, evidence doesn't back up at all.
Well said man!
Thanks, Rhoel!
great vid Nathan.ive just got into investments, especially crypto in the last 4 weeks.crash course on how to loose a couple of grand in a short period of time! lol .this vid has helped to answer some of the long term queries i have floating around in my head. all of been doing is buying and selling virtually everything within that time. what this has told me is to make sure i have a bit of everything ,rather than everything of one bit..many thanks
Thanks for the informative video. Is there a similar study with the S & P? It would be interesting to compare the S & P to the Russell 3000
There could be, but I’m not sure.
I wish I would have taken profits before the pandemic thats for sure
Yes, but then when would you buy back in? That is always the question…
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA When the price is lower than I sold for minus taxes paid on profits. If not able, look for other opportunities is my approach. Taking partial profits and leaving a fraction of the position is satisfying to my mindset. Watching a stock i'm holding revert back to the price I purchased for after years of holding is detrimental to it.
Thanks for sharing this great video. I do have a question though. If the Crittenden & Wilcox report was published in 2004, how could it include data from the Russell 3000 index from 2005 and 2006?
It was published after per my pop up note on that slide. 😃
Nathan, thanks again for a great video. However, I do not get the point you make @ 05:09 ... am I confused / get something wrong ? "Of the 3000 stocks, 75% added no return", to quote you. Then you continue to say that 1,493 went up 300% or more. How is this possible - basically, it would leave 25% or less, leaving around 750 stocks in the "have gained" camp.
8,000 stocks not 3,000.
I have been "Selling winners and holding losers"☹️
Yep!! I have the same problem. I hang onto my losers hoping they will come back because I don't want to lose. Bad strategy
It’s alright. Most investors do it. Only human nature to be averse to selling at a loss. 😀
Great video! Would it be prudent preserve your gains in a big crash with stop losses and re buy at bottom, or have the results been better to ride it out and just keep adding at the bottom?
If you know when to get out and when the ‘bottom’ is, then you should do stop losses. Since you don’t (nor does anyone), I would abandon that idea.
Thanks, Alex!
Great as always, Nathan! Do you think from the fact that you showed in this videos that investing only via ETFs (market + factor ETFs) would be a better choice, with same/ higher return in lower risk?
Or perhaps to invest in a highly diversified portfolio (50+ stocks) so that you are able to fit more in such distribution and have higher chances of picking "the big winners"?
I’m not sure which is optimal. For my use case, I’ve built a portfolio with equal $5,000 positions and plan to let it ride.
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA thanks for the reply. Just to be clear, you mean a equal distribution (50/50) between ETFs and stocks?
Or you mean a portfolio of multiple stocks, each one with this specific share and from that just observe them and look for new ones to invest?
@@luisguilhermeresende9286 Just the $5,000 into each stock. Not a 50/50 split. Just 100% individual stocks. But each person's use case might be different. It's knid of like a hybrid between equal and market cap weighted.
Winning the loser's game. One thing I look for in a high flying stock is "PE Compression". An example is TSLA. At one point the stock had a PE ratio over 1000! Today after appreciating over 18,000% the PE has shrunk to 377...!!
What a bargain! 😉 Interesting concept; basically looking for stocks growing fundamentals faster than the stock price. In Tesla’s case, you may be seeing the base effect of earning 0.01 per share to 0.03. Tripling off a near zero base could be mathematically deceptive.
Thanks for another good video, your content is always thought provoking. Is the same true for a portfolio of ETFs and mutual funds in different sectors? Let's say one allocates $1000 to VGT, VHT, XLY, XLE and VGT has 40% return in one year and others return 10% and sector flows indicate that market money is being diverted to consumer discretionary. Conventional wisdom might call for trimming some VGT and allocated to XLY. Does the theory in this video call for keeping the money in VGT?
I’m not quite sure how that would correlate to ETFs. The study was only for individual stocks.
Easy to say, very difficult to do, no?
What’s easy to say and not easy to do?
@@NathanWinklepleckCFA Holding "winners" and paring down "losers". Most stocks seem to have significant price volatility over very long time frames, some of it quite random.
😊
Hi, Linda! ;)
Is there an ETF for this or for another index? I guess there was one for sp500 but they might be rebalancing every quarter, not interested in mega caps anyway. A 3T company will not go 10x.
This is why MTUM makes sense as its strategy is to shift capital to winners.
Exactly ;)
Doesn't your risk increase as your position becomes a larger portion of your portfolio? Using a hypothetical 10 stock portfolio, say one of those stocks is enron. Enron just keeps winning while the rest of your stocks languish and you end up with 95% allocation to enron. When the enron scandal breaks, you lose 95% of your portfolio as opposed to the 10% you would have lost if you kept your portfolio balanced. It seems to me that, especially in a roth where capital gains aren't taxed, some degree of rebalancing makes good sense from a risk management standpoint
In other words water the flowers and trim the weeds.
Yep 😉
Can somebody explain to me what does it mean to take a profit
It means you sell a stock at a gain. Buy it for $1,000 then sell it at $1,100 means you decided to take a profit... you sold it for $100.
Thank you for this perspective.
Excellent video, thank you.
Thank you for another very insightful video. Please avoid the background music in your future videos. It doesn’t add anything to your message, actually I find it distracting (and annoying).
Thanks for the feedback, EA!
Hi Nathan
One think I learned from your videos is even the viewers should also have some knowledge or some idea about what they are doing.
Thank you for making such videos, I always play back your videos to understand the logic what you are trying to explain
Last but not least Is, you always respond to every comment on your video. I really like that
Thank you so much! I'm glad you're finding the videos helpful.
Good 'Food for Thought' video, which I am sure some of fellow subscribers will relate to if they have been holding on to their losing positions for any given time. Would this strategy be similar to holding a long position in FFTY or a similar fund/ETF?
I'm not familiar with the IBD 50, but it doesn't sound similar to my eye.
What was the relevance of a cat jumping in the garbage? Lol
Lol it was referring most of your investments being garbage 🗑
Your videos are great Nathan. Thanks you for providing this kind of great videos.
Thanks a lot, Chandra!
Super video love the content
Thanks!
Great video. Thanks
Thanks, Terrance!
Awesome vid!
Thanks, Wyatt!