The REAL Reason Airbus Won't Build the A380NEO
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- Опубликовано: 28 апр 2024
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Chapters:
Intro - 0:00
History of the A380NEO - 2:35
The A380's Revival - 3:43
Why Building the A380NEO is Easy - 5:05
Will Airbus Actually Build It? - 8:33
Airbus's Other Priorities - 11:04
Outro - 12:42
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A few months ago, Tim Clark went on record saying he that wants airbus to build an A380 NEO. Now, this isn’t the first time that the Emirates boss has called on Airbus to renew the jet. But now more than ever, it seems like his wish could actually come true. After all, the A380 is experiencing a bit of a renaissance. And it turns out that building the Neo would actually be pretty easy. And yet, Airbus leadership has given no indication that they’re interested in the project.
But why not? Why won’t Airbus build the A380NEO, even though the conditions seem absolutely perfect to build one? Let me explain…
#airbus #a380 #emirates #aviation 
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I love your videos
Better help is a scam btw
@@Aviation_clips. Its not a scam in the traditional sense. The controversy with better help is about them selling user data
@@LaidBackDeveloper ok
Betterhelp is a scam. No.
Better Help is a scam. You deserve better Coby.
How so?
I feel like many (if not most) of the major RUclips sponsors are borderline scams. At this point if I see a lot of RUclips advertising, I almost take that as a negative signal
@@aerosw1ft They sold customer data, especially sensitive health information, to advertisers after promising not to.
Theres plenty of suckers out there.
New design with the same capacity could be 40% more efficient. But theres no creativity in the airline business.
The question I keep asking is if NEO comes down to winglets and new engines, why can't they retrofit them instead of building an entire new plane? If new engines weigh about the same and have the same thrust, the stress on the pylons won't be any different.
It's because of the numerous flight hours the fuselage and the wings have already experienced. You would be putting nex engines on an old frame with a limited life expectency.
Retrofit isn't a bad idea, but if you want to have subtantial sales and make real money, you need to sell new planes, not just improve the old ones.
And there is still the facilities problem. Airbus doesn't have any industrial equipement to do this. Of course you have some maintenance facilities, but it's not the same to repair a plane and to deeply modify it.
Age didn't stop the DC-8 & 707 refit with cfm56 engines which was wildly successful
@@WarriusZ3r0 Surely it would be a cheaper and less risky option in the long run than retooling factories to build entirely new aircraft? Plus, there's still only a limited number of customers who already have A380s that really want this, so the modifications to existing aircraft would better serve that market than trying to drum up new customers.
And how long is an airframe supposed to last, anyway? There are planes out there that are 50-60 years old that are still carrying passengers safely!
@@jonpritchard7439those planes were overbuilt compared to the 380
@@LordSandwichIIthe answer to life lasting is different for every a/c, airbus goal seems to be keeping the current 380s running, not having their remaining lives for 10% better efficiency
As much as I want to see the 380 live long and prosper, Airbus’ logic is hard to argue with.
It is a shame that Airbus never got around to selling an F model. With the help of the freighter market, it might still have been produced.
I think a pure freighter is the wrong move. A hybrid design with 2/3 to a whole floor converted to freight would make far more sense.
it was quite difficult for Airbus to figure out to make it work stucturally. A freighter uses a big single loading door and has an uniform/diaphanous space where the pallets can be rolled over so you'd need very strong deck floors for integrity. Probably it would be very slow to load/unload (it's a tall plane) and too heayy because of the strenghtening needed .
A380 would have been a terrible freighter. Too heavy and not enough power.
It might be still being produced, but only in a freight version
DELAYING the freighters because they didn't want them sold before passenger models (the first four passenger planes were 2+ years late and 4-6 tons overweight) was what killed them. This is definitely a case of "prestige" killing economics
Stop sponsoring better help, they are selling their customers data
If Emirates really, really wanted it, they should consider partnering with Airbus and GE or RR to re-engine the A380 themselves. Being able to perform that kind of work could be a lucrative capability for their engineering arm. Plus, I don't think in the long run, they will be only ones that want to have that kind of aircraft in their fleet.
that would extend their life perhaps, but the A380 still uses a lot of metals rather than composites and is too heavy, so it really needs a ground up new model to take advantage of weight saving and fuel efficiencies to compete properly.
@@jimdotcom1972 But that would lengthen the engineering process and drive up costs a lot and Emirates would likely think it’s not worth pursuing. They just need their A380s to be fit and reasonably efficient for the next 30 years.
i know, that's why its not happening, and why an engine refit would only buy time before the inevitable.@@magnustan841
Tim Clark is too cheap to do that he wants something for nothing or next to nothing.
That would cost more than starting a new Airbus because how hard certification of new planes is
I personally believe that the a380 production will come back, with the major airports enforcing slot restrictions and passenger numbers increasing the only efficient way to transport pax with the restricted slots will be the a380.
I agree, but it's going to take a lot of effort to turn production back on. I've been round the A380 FAL - enormous - but now it's been turned over to A320neos. To make another A380, they're going to have to build another A320 megaFAL somewhere else.
I think that that's what they're going to have to do, but I've no idea whereabouts in Europe that could be.
China? Possible, but not necessarily a good strategic fit, probably best to leave that one as is.
Mobile, Alabama? That could be a good fit. There's a bunch of disgruntled Boeing workers who'd probably accept a good relocation package. Expanding in Mobile would probably be welcomed by the city itself. Plus, that'd probably go down well with Uncle Sam.
Another one could be Mirabel in Canada. That'd get a lot of support in Canada.
The other option of course is that they build a new A380 FAL. Doing so in Alabama could be a good idea, essentially giving Airbus the ability to offer Uncle Sam sovereign build capability for any Airbus design. A380neo based Air Force One?
Airports are more likely to invest in refurbishment and growing terminal capacity, and Airbus is more likely to stretch the 350 further.
I doubt the 380 will eturn. It had its time in the sun like the 747, and both are destined for the boneyard in 15 years.
@@fighter5583 Oh they might, but a bigger terminal won't bring in more revenue when you're slot constrained and any stretched A350 represents a reduction in passenger numbers (if they're used to replace A380s) and therefore a reduction in revenue.
If all the slot constrained airport operators around the world got together and totted up what it'd take for them all to get more runway capacity, and then worked out what it'd cost Airbus to renew the A380, I bet newer A380s turn out cheaper.
For example, the entire A380 program has reputed to have cost Airbus $28 billion. Adding a *single runway to Heathrow* is estimated to cost $23billion. Just two such airports would be better off paying Airbus to build A380s and give them away to the airlines flying between them.
@@abarratt8869 How is a stretched 350 a reduction in revenue when they're cheaper to get and you can run them to more airport than with a 380? And a bigger terminal often means more gates; ergo more slots.
And the comparison between the entire 380 program and trying to put a new runway at LHR isn't a good one. The 380 program never broke even, and LHR has struggled to get a new runway for a while but keeps being denied because people are concerned about the noise. But even if LHR were to get a new runway, it'd pay for itself in a couple years as it gets enough passenger revenue to make the cost worth it. Many airports had to spend money just to accommodate the 380, some of which rarely see the aircraft.
@@abarratt8869I don't think Mirabel or Alabama would make any sense. As well as glossing over a host of other issues.
The entire production line is gone. Not Just Airbus' but all the suppliers that contribute too. Also mentioning that at least parts of the production was heavily automated, meaning re-creating it would be unusually expensive to achieve.
So Airbus would need to re-create production. The second largest cost after development and certification. Find alternative suppliers for the parts they simply can't get any more. Develop and certify the new variant with new parts and and changes those parts necessitate, and then it can finally start production again. For a niche market.
Airbus' talent and primary functions are European based, so supporting all this across continents would be unusually difficult.
Mirabel is tiny. Requiring an absurd expansion for the FAL and then a runway expansion to actually deliver the plane. Also the Mirabel site is actually Airbus Canada, a subsidiary of the main company. So I bet that adds complications.
Mobile, I don't know anything about really. All I really have to say if that getting the parts to Mobile would be difficult due to the distance from all other large sites. I'm thinking about things like Wings. Not something you could just huck on even a BelugaXL.
And all this at a time when they literally can't build out capacity for the A320 family fast enough to match the orders coming in? Let alone shrink the enormous back orders.
I just don't ever see an extra large body like the A380 or 747 making sense again. I predict by the time the A320 back orders are fulfilled. The demand for airtravel will have equalised to the point that people aren't looking for a A380 to move more butts in seats and the already niche opportunity for the A380 will be gone again.
I will be flying in my first 380 in July and can’t wait. I would love to see more airlines using this impressive plane on more long routes. Although I will always miss the 747, this appears to be a great updated substitute.
🫡🫡🫡
You just woke up like Rip Van Winkle
😅😅😅
Hopefully it is an Etihad A380!
Best economy experience I've ever had.
@@StimParavane did you go on Etihads A380? They have the Residence Product!
Absolutely they should. Or even better a 2 engine version! IMO there is nothing to compare with the pax experience of A380. I select my flights to travel in one whenever I can from Au to UK!
They don't need to build new ones, but upgrade them afterwards like the 707 tanker of the USAF
USAF was able to do this because it didn't require any certification, meaning the fuel and maintence savings could be completely leveraged. There would likely be no profit for Airbus to do this, and no airline is going to take frames out of service to be the test article for a certification process that would then also benefit their competition. The engine manufacturers could perhaps foot the bill, but they're nearly all at capacity on new-build production as is.
Also.. military airplanes (particularly intelligence & logistics) have typically significant longer lifespan..diluting costs of upgrades and retrofits over a longer period of time...
You're both true, but when a company has half the total production planes, and the manufacturer doesn't have any plan to help them... They could take the matter into their hand and certify the rengine themself, they have their a380 maintenance facility and can use one of their old a380 to do the testing (one of the ones that is "stored" in Tarbes)
@@jonathanmayor3942 probably not gonna happen though
@@redryder1146l agree. They were stung first-time round. Why risk it again? With return on investment coming from 320s and 350s largely, they aren't going to devote their precious production capacity on such a project, surely?
The a380 is just the best passenger jet ever made from a customer perspective . It’s so amazing to fly on it.
Why don’t all planes have the tail camera ??
Also, the space and the acoustics are so good on the a380.
My favorite by far
The production lines and possibly the jigs are no longer there… so nearly impossible to relaunch it.
yeah. the hangars that were used to assemble the A380 have been repurposed to build A321 which is the long hanging fruit. They barely can cope with the demand for the A321 while the A380 had virtually no new orders at the time the decision to end the production was made. As much as we like the A380 they have to build what airlines want.
I can guarantee you that the jigs are still in a warehouse. You don't trash equipment like that
@@ryanrhoden1842 For sure you're correct. You don't want somebody else gaining that trade secret.
@@ryanrhoden1842 Again. When you stop a FAL it's more than moving the machinery aside. Personell is retrained and reassigned into other tasks and the entire supply chain has already moved into other things. Starting up the A380FAL again woud take YEARS for an uncertain revenue not counting than any significant improvement would involve a complete recertification. Look at how much time it's taken Boeing to deliver the 777X. The focus in Airbus now is increasing the output of A220, A320neo and A350 families (mainly a supply chain issue), plus making the A330neo more appealing.
Fal is been repurposed. All transportation infrastructure like special roads, barges, boats cancellef. No more wing factory. Then think about all parts no more avail. Certification is also a huge cost needing 4 specially purposed prototypes...not in our lifetime, but that would be nice though...
It's a darn shame that we couldn't at least get a freighter variant of the A380. We all know how long it took for the last passenger 747 to the last cargo 747 to be delivered, so it could have gotten a second lease on life.
I mean an a380 Neo quad jet would be hard, unless they use another engine for it or they turn it into a twin engine
That's what I've always thought! Is it theoretically possible to make the A380 a twin jet?
It can become twin jet easily with the Gen 90-115X or Trent XWB
These power the future 777X
But may not be able to carry Cargo
Only passengers
Twin engine would needed a gigantic rudder in this setup, i bet that would be an issue with current hangar spaces....
Even a pair of RR Ultrafans pushing 110,000lbs of thrust each couldn't replace four Trent 900s with 78K lbs each. A tri-jet 380 with Ultrafans is theoretically possible but we're talking a new aircraft design here.
There's also the issue of reconfiguring the hydraulics and electrics setups. Much much more difficult than just adding 4 new engines and winglets, like an order of magnitude more difficult.
Coby - This is why this horse is not only dead, it is cremated and it’s ashes are scattered
Also Coby - What do you guys think, should they try and find all the ashes and reassemble the horse?
Me - This is dumb but hell he needs the engagement to drive algorithmic benchmarks so more folk might see the ads so…
I live in Australia and love flying the A380. I was super pissed when EK code shared with QF and all the transtasman flights became 737’s, but I’m not an airline that needs to fly sustainably and profitably.
Passengers aren’t the manufacturers’ customers. Hell, passengers aren’t the airlines’ customers, we’re usually their prisoners…
NB - you guys know that the airlines don’t have the final say, right? It’s the leasing companies.
Hi Coby, refitting the A380 with new engines might be the cheapest solution, no doubt. But if I recall right the A380-800 - per my knowledge the only variant sizewise at this time - lacks the proper wing. The wing was designed as some sort of "one size fits all" for even bigger incarnations of the A380 (A380-900 ?) and that's another burden in addition to the out-dated engines. So: all in all that is not an easy task.
BTW: There is a little flaw on the sketch shown at around 08:20: I guess the letters in the lower right should rather read A380NEO, right ?
Since A380 was designed from the beggining with a larger variant -9 in mind the -8 is way havier then it needs to be. Therefore an A380Neo would have to lose several tons on order to be efficient, not only changing engines
😂Answer is simple: largest buyer would be Emirates with very likely 80-90% of orders, one customer would be in position to dictate pricing terms. On top of that RR is not interested to develop a new version of its engines just to sell around 1000 units (no return on investment).
Funny! It was Tim Clark's Emirates that largely pulled the plug on the A380 with his last very modest, if not cursory, order. He likes to carry out his negotiations through the media as he is currently doing with the A350-1000.
Totally agree with this, they had the chance to keep the production line going by ordering another 25 and they refused! They should have taken those and who knows other airlines may have ordered more as the demand increased!
@@wesellanybizEmirates already had 30 laying in the desert. They didn’t need more. Lufthansa is the only airline that would’ve bought more a380s for their fleeet.
Great content as per usual. I couldn't help noticing the bottle of Bogle on the counter, especially during the advert for de-stressing. It works for me every time:)
They could do two things to cover the market for large planes. Its very profitable compared to the low end. The first is that they could make a A370, with folding wings and bigger engines as the 777x. Reuse much of the 350 systems.
The other option is to bring the 380 neo back, and while they are a bit risk averse, the 380 is a better fit for the future. Many places like Africa, MENA , India and China people get to a point where they can afford to fly, and there is lot of people there. But many places, like India, there is not enough airports, and adapt an airport for the 380 is a lot less expensive than building a new airport. That and increased demand from high pop airports like London, will drive demand for larger planes, as those who bit the most can get the slots. That is Emirates with its 380 fleet...
I think the biggest problem with developing an A380neo would be finding customers for it. Emirates maybe, but anyone else? I doubt it. Oh, and the A350 is even more versatile than you say. I recently flew on an SQ A359 between KUL and SIN. One of the world's busiest short haul routes (only about an hour long), and definitely the best way to fly the route. And also a great way for SQ to put an airframe to use between longer trips to places like JNB, which was its next destination.
It doesn’t make financial sense, however I hope someday it does 🤞
Compromise - an A360 or A370 NEO - dual engine, smaller and more fuel efficient than the A380, but bigger than the A350
Could do long-haul hub-to-hub but maybe also smaller destinations too, and probably would serve well as a cargo plane?
For an A380 to become and remain competitive, it needs ultrafan engines, a significant fuselage stretch to make better use of the structural weight (and/or a new lightweight structure) and folding wingtips so it can use smaller stands and narrower taxiways at airports. Anything less, and it will be overtaken by other designs as fast as the original variant was. I can't see this happening any time soon, if ever. Emirates' best option, meantime, would be to fund a re-engining program for its existing A380 fleet, along the lines of how DC-8-60s were re-engined to become the DC-8-70 series.
One of the problems with the A380 its that Airbus put an oversized wing this was the wing they were going to use on the A380-900 they could had used a slender higher aspect ratio wing in the A380-800. A380 wing aspect ratio its 7.5 not very good by todays standards for a wing of this size the ideal wingspan would need to be about 290 ft and for that it would need folding wingtips to fit at the gates.
The A380 is out of production… because they didn’t sell enough copies to break even on development costs.
@@DS-wo8wrPeople get attached to stuff when it happens they ignore flaws and limitations. It's easier to live in a fantasy world than come to terms with reality
@@Legion849 Think old men having a mid-life crisis and their sports/muscle cars...yes...
How about re-engine those old A380s? Like what McDonnel Douglas did with DC-8 and Boeing 707 fitting their old jets with CFM-56s
Those jets were overbuilt and didn’t have the teething problems the 380 had
I get the feeling that a new engine would be better, though the entire aircraft would probably need to be built in a mostly composite majority to realise this efficiency boost.
Dont forget it was already half composites, the entire wingbox, full half section& ths, rudder, use of sandwich panels for fuselage.
A GREAT MIX OF BUSINESS AND ENGINEERING ANALYSIS. GOOD VIDEO COBY.
Trent XWB's will bolt straight on. The 80klbs version as fitted to thevA350-900 would suit it perfectly. The A380 was after all used as a testbed for the engine.
XWBs would be susceptible to FOD ingestion on the outer pylons, given their position over the edge of the runway/taxiways
Combine cargo with a redeveloped A380 with new engines and more hold space - you have a two in one.
You also have a new plane. With all its development costs, for a four engined aircraft that is guaranteed to be used by only a tiny fraction of the aircraft world.
I'll build an A380neo. I may be in debt for the rest of my life but it's worth it.
The argument of low load is hilarious to hear. If the airlines adjusted the price, every flight could fly at over 95% load capacity (see Ryanair). One thing they can't get over is it costs a lot more to service 4 engines than 2.
Airbus should offer an update to exsisting planes.
First of all I absolutely love flying on an A380 as a passenger and it is my preferred AC on my SYD to LHR flights. I live in Brisbane and go via Sydney just to get on QF1 flight to London. Yes there should be an A380 Neo, we are always talking about an increase in air travellers so the load factors should also come up. And I might be wrong here but wasn't there once talk of an A380-900 an extended version ? And the A380 not making it as a freighter (floor construction etc.) is really a shame.
An A380Neo could only have happened while the aircraft was still in production. That the factory space has been reallocated to A320 production is the big determining factor.
I predicted the revival of the A380 when all those negative videos came out that its days were over.
A380 with Rolls Royce ultra fans sounds like a winner to me. Although they will never build it
4 Ultrafans for 20Milions each , making 120 Milions$ just for engines. A321NEO, entire plane with crew costs even cheaper 😂
Airbus needs to undertake a retro fit program as all major plane makers cant manufacture new air craft in some cases for ten years.
Refit the two inboard engines to the new RR ultra fan engines and throttle back the two outer engines in the cruise to save fuel.
Remove the aft fuselage section to reduce weight and capacity.
Result a smaller fuel efficient variant which can get to market within two years.
A380 is indeed in the past, as that airbus guy says. Airbus should instead focus more on next gen planes, including that blended wing concept they've shown and hydrogen infrastructure for proper 21st century air transportation.
Regards the processing line: If there would be that much demand for a 380plusneo, the factory still could build up a new 220/320 processing line, and then convert back the original to 380....
Finally, a video that analyses the positives and negatives before drawing a conclusion.
Far too many on this subject appear to be nothing more than a justification of a pre-deternined conclusion.
To divert already stretched resources from a cash cow to a vanity project, which may never see a return is sheer folly and likely to incur the wrath of the shareholders.
However, if there were spare resources available, an updated A380 might not be such a bad idea.
I think an A380 plus should have a redesigned cabin such that there is 10% lesser passenger capacity and more freight capacity. That will really help with profitability.
Lengthening the A350K is a bit hard without new wings and engines imo, with Emirates already complaining about the takeoff performance of the A350K
If upcoming UltraFan engine derived on 70K-80K lbs of thrust....Emirates would probably consider
Wish they would. My favourite airplane to fly. Unbeleivably smooth and quiet for such a huge beast.
Since Airbus has already taken a cold bath with the losses from the A-380s development costs and then limited production amount, it's HIGHLY unlikely they would be open to investing even the 2 Billion dollars you mentioned on top of all the other money thrown into the program from the start.
I would also point out that adding to pilot / cabin crew shortages, increase in demand and slow down jn production; european airports (at least) are also experiencing a severe shortage of slots...forcing airlines to fly bigger planes to face demand (or start moving passangers from minor airports regularly using wide body planes)....
what all airlines always keep forgetting is the fact that there are a lot of passengers who would gladly pay a premium to travel on the A380 over any other plane. It's also a substantial statement for a healthy airline and lastly, more and more people demand premium economy or affordable business class seats which could be a much more efficient way of flying the A380 with.
The freighter market has been overlooked here. They will definately need a replacement to the 747's in due course for freight. If an A380 neo was designed to do a unique freighter version, then a passenger version would likely be made, and will be purchased for ultra long-haul carriers like Emirates and Singapore Airlines, and to a lesser extent to carriers like Qantas, Cathay, British Airways and ANA. The last four can operate successfully with the A350's or 777-X, but if there was demand for it, could purchase a few A380 Neos. The driver here will be for a new freight version, plus fullfil what Emirates want. Whether that is enough for Airbus to re-open the A380 program remains doubtful, but lets see what the market place looks like in another 5 years time.
I think the better option would be to replace them with the 777-9 and A350-1000. Despite the profitability gap closed in with a NEO upgrade, it can still be risky with an A380NEO with any future economic crises like the recession that may come soon.
I fee like the problem with putting Trent 1000 and GENX on the A380 is that they might not be powerful enough. It’s the same reason why the A350 isn’t powered by the Trent 1000 or 7000 and why the 777x doesn’t use the GENX. I do suppose that an appropriate engine exists for an A380, it’s the Trent XWB from the A350.
GE could actually put the 787-10 GEnX on the A380 (adaptated for it) as a lower-thrust option cuz it's weaker than the average A380 engine
The XWB also fits the airplane however it may be too strong for shorter A380 routes
(a special variant of both with in-between thrust may be designed)
Why is this reuploaded? There was no „this years Paris airshow“!
Singapore Airshow dummy
There's so much demand right now that Airbus can decide to do whatever is more convenient for themselves. They don't need to please a niche part of the market because the supply side is so skewed that airlines will buy whatever planes they are building. And i get it. Why would Airbus spend even a small amount of resources in developing a new A380, and most importantly building back a supply chain for it, if they can spend those resources on building more and better A350s. Airbus is probably focused on the next generation of low emissions planes. the A380, even with the best engines and wings, isn't at all a move in that direction. It is a hulking, over-engineered 4 engine plane, not at all what regulations are going to allow for in 20 years.
The resources for a potential A380Neo are probably going to go into the pockets of the "darling" investors, Boeing style...
When people like you talk about building all new A380Neo or A380Plus, that is not going to happen. I do not think any additional airlines will buy new planes. What Airbus should be doing is offering an upgrade program to customers _existing_ planes. Change the engines out, maybe do a wing swap and bam now you have a 15-20% more efficient A380.
Interesting, Coby!
It is interesting but lets wait 3 to 5 years in order to see if the market World is ready to continue using the most incredible Airplane built by humans the A380 is an absolute incredible Aircraft Achievement😊
Its obvious that rn a neo isnt comming. But in a few years when the a380 enter EOL and demand is lower for other aircraft it might be worthwhile to build it if airlines preorder enough of them. It would be a cheap and sure way for airbus to sell some more planes. But not before 2030
A380 German Wikipedia:
While I was working out the details on the A380neo for the German Wikipedia, your interview with Stan Shparberg has been been a wonderful resource. Specifically it hinted to the New Production Standard that exchanged some materials for the fuselage allowing a wider cabin. So after 500 planes delivered, the new A350 would finally allow for a 3+4+3 seating configuration which it did not before. At the same time the plane got 86 cm longer, 1,2 tons lighter, and it increasted MTOW by 3 tons. As a consequence, starting in 2022, the A350-1000 is providing more capacity than ever making the remaining market share for the A380 slimmer than before. Even Emirates considered to buy it which did only fail for the dispute on the maintenance issues with the engines that it still has. So as soon as the A350-1000 gets new engines then there will be no committed customer left for a A380neo.
I can image, based on the current backlog at Airbus, they need additional production facilities anyway.
If I were Airbus, I would want a clear and binding commitment by Emirates and would therefore require a significant (non-refundable) down payment in order to reduce the financial risk in case the situation changes again in a few years and the demand for the A380 goes away (again). The down payment could then partially be used to finance the new facilities which Airbus could use either way.
But of course this is not going to happen. Personally, I'd love to see new, more efficient A380s.
I find it ridiculous trying to cover major hub routes with smaller aircrafts. Its not really more sustainable if you have to fly more planes and certainly doesn't help to alleviate airport capacity issues.
A neo A380 combi version that can easily be converted to cargo only, cargo plus passengers and passenger only configurations.
RR geared turbo fan called Ultra. Fan is well into its development and maturity phase nearly completed that will be the engine of choice with an estimated 20% to 25% fuel savings. Thus with other 380 changes the total efficiency enhancements theoretically could be 35% more fuel efficient than the current A380.
Do they still make combi versions of aircraft these days? Some dangerous goods can only shipped by cargo only aircraft, as far as I understand it. They are prohibited from being carried in passenger aircraft, so this is why the combi variant went out of vogue.
@@phillipmaguire4671 Lithium batteries are a major concern. Solid state batteries are the future. I have the chemistry and engineering background, it’s coming.
Is it possible to retrofit existing planes with new engines? I doubt airbus would make new a380s but if we could get more use out of existing frame that’d be good
I think Airbus should build a new A380 assembly facility in the homebase of the Emirates, their biggest costumer, and let them foot the bill for it. That way the Emirates can build their most top favorite airplane themselves under the supervision of Airbus.
Its silly of Airbus to not have an upgrade path as part of the owners plan.
Forgot to mention slot restrictions, traveller demand growing but airports are not. Much easier to have 1 A380 than 2 787s using 2 slots...
Excellent vid. Thanks.
"...stretch the A350's fuselage..."
So, what you're telling me is that we can see the return of the A340-600?
But twinjet of course.
A350-1000 already has basically the same capacity as A340-600. I think they meant 400-500 seat range.
Even retrofitted new winglets and new engine they still need to retire later because airframe growing older, sad to see that facts😢😢😢
But things around corner, you see A350 is best selling widebody from them, and it need to be sold out and gaining brutal Profit, then seeking Ultrafan, Do composite wing and winglets, and build a new frame like Aluminium lithium like A220. While it drive up the cost, turns out it can fit more seats more longer fusselage and increasing the cargo......although the project cost will leapfrogged its actually beter option to do it since 777X also struggling to certified them self
For ultra long routes the A380 seems more appropriate as it offers both the range and passenger comfort over economy in a long distance. In long routes as much as it is important to go for fuel economy it is also equally important to understand that long flight are taxing for passengers and the A380 can help with it. Building a Neo ŵould be a great choice but one that comes with a huge cost
You summarized all important parts very well. Like that video, even if it means the King's lights are going to fade sooner than later
Make a cargo version of A380 for heavens sake. Even if there is a structural issue, just make a reduced cargo but stronger frame A380 cargo-- it is better than no other options. It would reduce the risk of making these planes again to serve an unpredictable passenger market.
Great vid
I saw that betterhelp spot coming a mile away....
Amazing video!!!
I think that when airbus zero e gets traction, then there won't be an environmental issue anymore with flying, which means passenger numbers could really take off. And because hydrogen tanks take up more room, then the a380 might make sense again.
But that's at least 40 years into the future
What about a engine retrofit program?
I actually can see a A380 new engine option happening cause say 100 second hand a380 can be retro fitted with a new engine we are talking about 400 engines plus spares.
Hi Coby!
Hi Phoenix!
One important factor is missing on this topic. Simply askig an engine manufacturer like RR or GE etc to come up with a better engine which will cost 100s millions even billions just to produce a hand full for the airlines which operate thwm is not worth it. Air France That and Malaysian have all retired their A380 fleets and the rest haven't brought all out of storage. Engine manufacturers make money buy selling and servicing the engines. Without enough demand then it's not economical sense to spend the money for a new engine.
And i don't think just strapping on a trent 1000 or a GE9X is that simple
So it's not really Airbus fault, it's more to do with RR not wanting to come up with a NEO engine due to the huge costs involved and the small return. And it was only Emirates who was pucjing for a NEO version
Just flew on a LH flight, MUC-LAX and it was full in all classes….
It's quite simple Coby, let me explain... While there's more people travelling each year on average, the demand for bigger planes won't stop growing either. The big question is how fast will the market grow. Sooner or later it will demand not only for the two big quads but an A380 stretch (which has also been planed...) as well.
I don't understand the "cannot fill up a plane" when Delta for example, can charge whatever they want because they don't have enough seats for the demand.
Delta has planes with between 200 and 300 seats not over 500, maybe it knows better than to buy something that large.
The A380 also has a utilization problem. In a 24h period it can do one flight for maybe 12h, get turned around in 2-3h, and then sit on the tarmac the remaining time. By contrast a 787 can do a long and a short leg realistically in the same day. Versatility, as you say.
Larger A350 > A380neo from a business standpoint
Hey y'all - you did not read between the lines here - and that includes the video presenter!
Listen again to that Airbus exec at minute 8:31.
What Airbus' head of commercial marketing said is NOT a full-blown absolute "No". He spoke of his "personal opinion" that the A380-neo won't happen. Stating it's a "personal opinion" is pointing out that this is NOT official policy.
And now this: Before his "personal opinion" he said "...A380 my favorite A/C as a passenger" and lastly he said "focus of Airbus is to listen to its customers" - remember he had said A380 is passengers' favorite airplane two seconds earlier.
That is NOT an absolute No - it is keeping the door open just a little bit.
That said, the lack of resources to develop and *produce* even more aircraft are the biggest hurdles right now. I believe there WOULD be a business case for the A380NEO.
You've forgotten to mention that reopening an assembly line would require transference of highly skilled human resources currently employed in much more successful aircraft families.
Will you start streaming again?
Airbus is reluctant to build an A380NEO because they are still so humiliated that they brought the A380 to market in the first place… 😮
The fundamental problem with the A380 is that it's "too big (paxwise)" and "too heavy" for the vast majority of airport taxiways/aprons (So was the 747 originally)
The second problem is that it doesn't have enough freight capacity. Airfreight is what takes passenger flights from marginal to profitable, but a double decker design means that thanks to passenger baggage there are only 1/3 as many cargo LD3 positions as a 777 (Yes the A380 can carry more mass for more distance, but most airfreight is lightweight, so volume matters more)
Newer engines or a composite airframe don't solve the above issues. Plus was a counterproposal to Emirates wanting new engines(*) based around leveraging the fact that the aircraft was built for a substantially BIGGER variant (that's why the wing looks out of place) which never happened
Airbus offered to do the engine engineering work if Emirates stumped up the $2billion required. Emirates blinked
Every plane that is a "neo" (320, 330, 737 MAX, 777x, 747-8) also had to get new wings to go with the engines. Bigger engines often mean an increase in weight, so the older wings wouldn't fair too well holding them up. The 380 would likely have to get a better wing to hold 4 new engines in place. But at least the current 380 isn't underpowered like the 340-300.
But the resurgence of the 380 is just temporary. It was a fatass aircraft with few orders compared to smaller twinjet widebodies that often got up to a thousand; if airbus made it a little smaller to the size of the 747-8, it could've gotten more usage. But they wanted to beat the 747 in size and capacity and ended up making it TOO big.
The A350 has a high risk for tail strikes. A potential A350-1200 would have to undergo major changes to minimize the tail strike risk.
As much as i would like to see a 380neo i dont think it will be financially viable to Airbus, but maybe a stretched 350-1000+ now that would be impressive
I think you're missing the extraordinary costs associated with restarting a production line, with retooling and staffing.
Even assuming they still have all the tooling in usable condition, restarting production is expensive, and every year it's out of production the prospects get slimmer.
I think the question of the A380 NEO is in the hands of Emirates. If they are willing to put up the money to upgrade their fleet, it will happen and other airlines will follow. They have more than half of the current fleet. But in my opinion they should do it, it’s the best time given what Boeing is witnessing and the facilities can be built in the UAE. 19% might seem a lot when you translate in numbers what the A380 consumes.
As cool as the A380 is, it comes down to COGS (Cost of Goods Sold) vs Profit, and Airbus simply wouldn't be able to meet that with the 777ER and A350 available on the market. More airports can accommodate these aircraft than they could with the 380. Definitely the right decision. Definitely woulda been cool to see the A380 Zero-E however.
I keep wondering if a charter/discount airline could make a go of a used 380 reconfigured for lots of lie flat seats, and used on very long and heavy routes, 12+ hours. There might be sufficient demand, even at double the price of a typical discount coach seat, if run weekly on a variety of popular very long routes. If visiting family or on holiday, schedules might be flexible, and space for such a long flight could be a treat, or even a relief if the route is done regularly due to family.
"In a recent interview ...." November 2020??
Not about this vid but something interesting. As of march 16th airbus is larger than Boeing by market cap with airbus being 128.66 billion with Boeing dropping to 111.37 billion in market cap
My guess is the A380 will be back in production at some point with NEO Engines, winglets and some weight saving where it is easy to go with CFK at the least.
A major revamp would be a new body and just 3 engines, however that is unlikely....
It's a been rhere, done that issue. The future is ahead of us, not behind. You can't go backwards into the future!